First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Power Four

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Four.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2024 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

The first and third ranked teams in 1HPD met in the ACC Championship Game, with the third ranked team pulling off a small upset. More on the team that finished second in IHPD later. 

Big 10

The 2024 Big 10 standings.

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

The first and fourth ranked teams in 1HPD met in the Big 10 Championship Game with the top ranked team holding on to win. However, the top four teams in 1HPD were all selected for the expanded College Football Playoff with the third ranked team winning it all. At the bottom of the 1HPD standings, Purdue made their nine Big 10 opponents look like Oregon, posting a horrid -152 1HPD and getting Ryan Walters fired in the process. 

Big 12

The 2024 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Arizona State finished first in 1HPD and won the Big 12 Championship Game in their first season in the conference. However, their opponent in the title game (Iowa State) finished a distant eleventh in 1HPD. At the other end of the Territorial Cup, Arizona brought up the rear in 1HPD. 

SEC

The 2024 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play.

Texas finished first in the SEC in 1HPD in their first season in the conference, but lost the SEC Championship Game to Georgia. The other SEC newcomer from the Big 12 did not fare as well. Oklahoma finished ahead of only winless Mississippi State in 1HPD. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Four conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Missouri finished 5-3 in SEC play, but the Tigers trailed at the half in five of their conference games and entered halftime tied in two others. Iowa State won seven Big 12 games and thanks to tiebreakers, qualified for the Big 12 Championship Game. While the Cyclones only trailed at the half in two of their nine conference games, most of their games were still in doubt during the intermission. They led at the half in six conference games, but five of those leads were by five points or fewer. Miami nearly played in the ACC Championship Game before ironically blowing a second half lead to Syracuse. Turnabout was fair play, as the Hurricanes trailed at the half in four of their eight ACC games, including twice by double digits. Georgia won their second SEC title in three years, but trailed at the half in four of their eight SEC games. 

And now the underachievers. 

Virginia Tech finished second in the ACC in 1HPD, leading at the half in an astounding seven of their eight conference games! Kentucky won just a single SEC game, but the Wildcats were competitive at the half in a majority of their games. They led at the half in three conference games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. Wisconsin won just a third of their Big 10 games, but led at the half in two thirds of their conference games, including four times by double digits. Utah failed to live up to their preseason expectations in 2024, but the Utes led at the half in three Big 12 games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in three more. Auburn mastered giving games away in 2024. The Tigers were ahead or tied at the half in five of their eight SEC games. In Mack Brown's final season in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels finished with a losing ACC record despite leading at the half in four of their eight conference games. They led by double digits in three of those games, and were tied or within a touchdown at the half in three more. Now another septuagenarian will attempt to bring the Tar Heels to the forefront of college football. Finally, Nebraska finished 3-6 in Big 10 play, but led by double digits at halftime in three of their conference games, led by a touchdown in another, and were tied in two others. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will almost be time for the season to start. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Group of Five

After a bit of a hiatus, we return to our review of the 2024 college football season.This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2024 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the AAC Championship Game with the top team winning in somewhat dominant fashion. At the other end of the AAC, Tulsa was dead last by a significant margin. Their 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Temple).

Conference USA

The 2024 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD also met in the Conference USA Championship Game. While the top two teams were close in 1HPD, their matchup in the title game was not. Western Kentucky opened the scoring with a field goal, but Jacksonville State outscored the Hilltoppers 52-9 the rest of the way. 

Mid-American

The 2024 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the MAC Championship Game (sensing a theme here?). Much like Conference USA, while the top two teams were close in 1HPD, the title game was not. Miami kicked a field goal to go up 3-0, but Ohio scored the final 38 points of the game to win their first ever MAC Championship Game and first MAC title since 1968. At the bottom of the MAC standings, Kent State's 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Eastern Michigan). 

Mountain West

The 2024 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

Like the previous three Group of Five conferences, the top two teams in 1HPD met in the Mountain West Championship Game. And once again, despite the relative tightness of the top two teams in 1HPD, the title game was not especially close. 

Sun Belt

The 2024 Sun Belt standings. 

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

The Sun Belt was the streak breaker in 2024. The top two teams did not meet in the Sun Belt Championship Game. However, the teams ranked second and third in 1HPD did face off in the title game. Like the other Group of Five title games, this one was also a dud, at least from a competitive standpoint. I suppose if you were a Marshall fan, you were not overly concerned about the competitiveness. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Tulsa technically overachieved since a team with their 1HPD (trailed on average by 23 points per game at the half) usually finishes winless in conference play. In Tulsa's lone league win, they overcame a 28-point halftime deficit against UTSA. Boise State never trailed at the half in Mountain West play, but they were tied in three games, and held a lead of less than a touchdown in another. Colorado State rode an easy conference schedule to a 6-1 record and nearly qualified for the Mountain West Championship Game. However, the Rams trailed at the half in two of their seven conference games and were tied in another. Louisiana-Lafayette only trailed at the half in one of their Sun Belt games, but they were down by three touchdowns which significantly suppressed their overall numbers. Finally, East Carolina finished with a winning record in AAC play despite trailing at the half in four of their eight conference games, including three times by double digits. 

And now the underachievers. 

Tom Herman lost his job at Florida Atlantic because the Owls could not close the deal. They won just a single game in AAC play despite leading at the half in four games and trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime just once. Nevada was not a good team in 2024, but their profile did not befit a team that finished winless in conference play. The Wolfpack were tied or leading at the half in three of their seven conference games. UTSA finished with a .500 record in AAC play despite leading at the half in five of their eight conference games. Their under-performance is mostly explained by their shocking loss to Tulsa I mentioned above. Four seasons after winning the MAC in the Covid-impacted 2020 season, Mike Neu lost his job at his alma mater thanks to the Cardinals struggles in the second half. Ball State led at the half in three of their five conference games and trailed by double digits in just one. Finally, Georgia State only led at the half in one of the conference games, but they were tied in two others and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. The Panthers probably should have won at least one additional conference game in Dell McGee's first season in Atlanta. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Four.