tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post2593989741012980556..comments2024-02-08T13:13:49.679-08:00Comments on Statistically Speaking: Fibonacci Win Pointsmatthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-22687712188530097022013-03-22T17:22:23.965-07:002013-03-22T17:22:23.965-07:00Thanks I will give it a change. I hope that there ...Thanks I will give it a change. I hope that there is a kindle version because I have space issues with my books. bookmakers onlinehttp://www.hostpph.com/pay-per-head/bookmaking.aspxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-78424758095269911232008-06-08T17:14:00.000-07:002008-06-08T17:14:00.000-07:00I have no qualms with your point about the break e...I have no qualms with your point about the break even point being different for each coach depending on their school/program. The only thing is that calculating 3, 5, or 10 year windows is a lot of work--something I'm not a huge fan of. I'm actually working on another rating system using 'reasonable' expectations, but that's probably gonna be shelved until next offseason. <BR/><BR/>What do you think a good window for looking at performance is? 10-years seems too long. Maybe 3, 5 or 7?matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-9191719823306520822008-06-06T07:53:00.000-07:002008-06-06T07:53:00.000-07:00I really like the post, but I'd like to take issue...I really like the post, but I'd like to take issue with your choice of "break even" point. Being from Wake Forest I'm sure you know that College Football is far from a level playing field. As such, the idea that there is a single break even point for all of college football oversimplifies the situation and results in a fistfull of data that doesn't contain much useful information. Basically, the only coaches who are represented accurately are those who coached teams with a history of success (those teams for which a 9-3 record is a reasonable benchmark). I think you would get much more interesting data by using a different break even point for each program. Rate a coach's success against the program's prior success. Think about Bill Snyder. He won games at a rate believed to be impossible for a team from Kansas St. but has a sub average FWP score. I think an ideal FWP calculation would calculate a team's break even point with a 5-10 year sliding window. This would give a good indication of a coach's ability to improve a program and then maintain that level of success. It would certainly be more work to calculate, but the results would be far more rewarding.Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10491376326558090761noreply@blogger.com