tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-149558092024-03-18T03:14:14.328-07:00Statistically SpeakingI use many stats. I use many stats. Let me tell you, you have stats that are far worse than the ones that I use. I use many stats. matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.comBlogger1033125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-73830781700197421202024-03-18T03:13:00.000-07:002024-03-18T03:13:40.259-07:00March Madness Intermission: Fewest NCAA Tournament WinsWe are taking a short break from our normal offseason posts to celebrate our nation's seminal event, the NCAA Tournament. This week, we'll have a few posts on statistical minutia that may help you fill out your tournament bracket or may just give you an opportunity to impress your friends and neighbors with tournament facts. First up, we are going to look at current power conference teams with the fewest NCAA tournament wins since the field expanded in 1985. Some of them might even be in the field this year.<div><br /></div><div>Before we get started, we need to define what we mean by 'Power Conference'. For this exercise, we are going to include teams that are currently members of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC. The Atlantic 10 and American Athletic Conference have both been pseudo power conferences at different points in their existence, but many of the best teams from those league's have been gobbled up by the other six conferences. Oh, and one other thing. We are only going to consider victories in the Round of 64 and beyond. No matter how they are branded, <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2024-02-27/first-four-ncaa-tournament-ultimate-guide" target="_blank">First Four</a> games, are play-in games and if you lose in those, did you even make the real tournament? </div><div><br /></div><div>Let's begin with current power conference teams that have won exactly four tournament games since the field expanded. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5ZBnPlmBpgf8vI2KL04TTAvUejblqKjF3ZWzilcGKvtmVfHYl0GfrJardDsHyWJDhglY1bLqsfONqluyTXTPsq6HI8FiiT1ps-x03XS0AhFgn68pTqga77oKMpDi6egQUszjnrRIzKDxxRg-CqL5Nv01pML5R8x-XnmNulVx5zbGR5N0kfwSa/s636/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.11.25%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="636" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5ZBnPlmBpgf8vI2KL04TTAvUejblqKjF3ZWzilcGKvtmVfHYl0GfrJardDsHyWJDhglY1bLqsfONqluyTXTPsq6HI8FiiT1ps-x03XS0AhFgn68pTqga77oKMpDi6egQUszjnrRIzKDxxRg-CqL5Nv01pML5R8x-XnmNulVx5zbGR5N0kfwSa/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.11.25%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Three SEC schools have won just four tournament games in the past forty years. Ironically, Georgia has been coached by four men in that span with a Final Four appearance. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Durham" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Hugh Durham</span></a> took Georgia to the Final Four two seasons before the field expanded (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1983-04-02-georgia.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">1983</span></a>), but only managed a single tournament win at Georgia after that run to the national semifinal. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tubby_Smith" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Tubby Smith</span></a> took Georgia on their deepest run in the expanded field in 1996 before he won a national title <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/men/1998.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">two years later</span></a> at Kentucky. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Harrick" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Jim Harrick</span></a>, a national title winning coach at <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/ucla/men/1995.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f1c232;">UCLA</span></a>, guided Georgia to two tournaments, but won just a single game before leaving the school in <a href="https://www.espn.com/ncb/news/2003/0327/1530432.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">disgrace</span></a>. Finally, former Marquette and Indiana coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Crean_(basketball)" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Tom Crean</span></a> was never able to get Georgia to the tournament during his tenure. Ole Miss was on the <a href="https://www.midmajormadness.com/2022/3/12/22967620/bryce-drew-buzzer-beater-video-valparaiso-march-madness-1998-ncaa-tournament-vs-ole-miss" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">business end</span></a> of Bryce Drew's miracle shot in 1998, but <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Barnes" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Rod Barnes</span></a> did win three tournament games at the school, including two in 2001 to get them to the Sweet 16. Andy Kennedy technically won two games during his tenure in Oxford, but one came in the First Four. South Carolina has only won four tournament games since the field expanded, but they clustered those wins in perfect sequence on the way to the <a href="https://www.garnetandblackattack.com/2022/3/11/22965364/march-madness-south-carolina-gamecock-mens-final-four-appearance-2017-ncaa-tournament-highlights" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Final Four in 2017</span></a>. The other power conference team to be stuck on four wins is Virginia Tech. The Hokies made tourney appearances as members of the Metro and later Atlantic 10 before joining the ACC. A <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/635960-virginia-techs-bubble-bursted-once-again-tech-out-of-ncaa-tournament-again" target="_blank"><span style="color: #b45f06;">perpetual bubble team</span></a> under Seth Greenberg, the Hokies made their deepest run under Buzz Williams in 2019.</div><div><br /></div><div>What about teams that have won exactly three tournament games since the field expanded?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_Gx_HEfHm2Bn5LIMN2loipMT_9DXyqWgd-opx0mlcXO1HkmfxBYJSRibUESBdqdu7SL1AErc8q87S91NFQAQdxieWMA57VGmQdlDcOkw9XNSYYB9Bp3xhIo9n2MClrHh5pck9EIohx_4l4iuIF7Y4LJnOjYb2blmspKd2Qj2Wxl1Z3Jruvxp8/s744/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.15.11%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="290" data-original-width="744" height="125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_Gx_HEfHm2Bn5LIMN2loipMT_9DXyqWgd-opx0mlcXO1HkmfxBYJSRibUESBdqdu7SL1AErc8q87S91NFQAQdxieWMA57VGmQdlDcOkw9XNSYYB9Bp3xhIo9n2MClrHh5pck9EIohx_4l4iuIF7Y4LJnOjYb2blmspKd2Qj2Wxl1Z3Jruvxp8/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.15.11%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Like the SEC with four-win teams, one league (the Pac-12) is overrepresented with three-win teams. Colorado has not advanced past the second round since the field expanded in 1985. Oregon State went 26 years between tournament appearances, but consolidated all their wins in one season during their <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/oregon-state/men/2021.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Elite 8 run in 2021</span></a>. Washington State has been coached by two men who found greater success once they left Pullman (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin_Sampson" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">Kelvin Sampson</span></a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Bennett_(basketball)" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Tony Bennett</span></a>) and have not advanced past the Sweet 16 in the expanded tournament field. TCU is the only other power conference team to win exactly three tournament games since the field expanded. The Horned Frogs have bounced around, playing in the Southwest Conference, WAC, Conference USA, and Mountain West, before finding a home in the Big 12. Along the way, they have never advanced past the second round. </div><div><br /></div><div>There is only one team that has won exactly two NCAA Tournament games since 1985. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj4FOqiVhayrdfxfzbgpg6vdWrh0snev29ruDfibI1PFDCxwa8OqTTVkbpA11neMyYlCN5_mAxeU5QU96n-m3q8uqa1aTx9WfBKLa9zdj_8DtgTxwWE55M-3bR9Xa8FK_3a7P70OBK5TWiEPgK_TTT0xgr03BMivEtU6pen2OztplSEf5Tz-t1/s660/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.16.25%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="178" data-original-width="660" height="86" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj4FOqiVhayrdfxfzbgpg6vdWrh0snev29ruDfibI1PFDCxwa8OqTTVkbpA11neMyYlCN5_mAxeU5QU96n-m3q8uqa1aTx9WfBKLa9zdj_8DtgTxwWE55M-3bR9Xa8FK_3a7P70OBK5TWiEPgK_TTT0xgr03BMivEtU6pen2OztplSEf5Tz-t1/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.16.25%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Northwestern did not even qualify for their first NCAA Tournament until 2017. As the old adage goes, you can't be upset in the first round if you never make the tournament. Give the Wildcats credit, their first round win rate is 100% as they have won their opener in both tourney appearances. </div><div><br /></div><div>We are getting close to the bottom. Which teams have won exactly one game since the field expanded? </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoBFac9DFHVbbJPcSRR-yb8NJlzro8maAl1VbJXyCT8by0VwyRkbsTLVaklLwqSuDusb2ObeU4BxFBT_qaHb-TIoBZk4d5xWgFe4GDuMx1ncCc-Tb48GSmgB9EhbaDuTDfJh6aPmygK7pBsw82jA14wRA_GNHjmmo7BQOHbcxWPVYQCqeJ-m2K/s666/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.17.33%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="226" data-original-width="666" height="109" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoBFac9DFHVbbJPcSRR-yb8NJlzro8maAl1VbJXyCT8by0VwyRkbsTLVaklLwqSuDusb2ObeU4BxFBT_qaHb-TIoBZk4d5xWgFe4GDuMx1ncCc-Tb48GSmgB9EhbaDuTDfJh6aPmygK7pBsw82jA14wRA_GNHjmmo7BQOHbcxWPVYQCqeJ-m2K/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.17.33%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>The Rutgers basketball program has been nearly as destitute, perhaps more so, than their <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/rutgers/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">f<span>ootball team</span></span></a>. The Scarlet Knights went three decades between tournament appearances. They won their first tournament game in nearly 40 years in 2021 and played a great second round game in nearly upsetting a Final Four bound Houston team. UCF made four tournament appearances under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Speraw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Kirk Speraw</span></a> in the 90s and early 2000s when they were members of the <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/atlantic-sun/men/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">TAAC/Atlantic Sun</span></a>. Those were low-major leagues, so the Knights received very low seeds (never higher than 14). They returned to the tournament in 2019 under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Dawkins" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Johnny Dawkins</span></a>, won their first ever tournament game, and gave top-seeded Duke a <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2019-03-24-17-duke.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">run for their money</span></a> in the second round. </div><div><br /></div><div>And finally, let's hear it for the only power conference team to have not won a tournament game since the field expanded. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjarQt7n39D9YqZVRLRIiPBZf0gKZonMW17_Zur1QZQCuFk4YL_rda2LbIZqEmPeeoFxPR-l724uhLevCaKj9i0LZ1wvaawlFKTWGha5G-iTSa0vpc7g9HSiikVke57zSf7nsrk_TdmYK318ieqjFzT_qVmJtFKcV96GaoCUmZW-NkSlqKsJdX/s656/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.18.20%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="182" data-original-width="656" height="89" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjarQt7n39D9YqZVRLRIiPBZf0gKZonMW17_Zur1QZQCuFk4YL_rda2LbIZqEmPeeoFxPR-l724uhLevCaKj9i0LZ1wvaawlFKTWGha5G-iTSa0vpc7g9HSiikVke57zSf7nsrk_TdmYK318ieqjFzT_qVmJtFKcV96GaoCUmZW-NkSlqKsJdX/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.18.20%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>In fact, the Cornhuskers have never won a tournament game in their <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/nebraska/men/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">entire history</span></a>. They did not make the NCAA field until 1986, and despite four consecutive appearances between 1991 and 1994, including a three seed in 1991, failed to win a single tournament game. Is this the year? Can Nebraska finally garner their first tournament victory? If so, it might be time to build a state of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Hoiberg" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Fred Hoiberg</span></a> in Lincoln. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-71106431070103810472024-03-14T04:15:00.000-07:002024-03-14T04:15:47.606-07:002023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Conference USALast week we looked at how <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2024/03/2023-yards-per-play-conference-usa.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Conference USA teams fared</span></a> in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2012/03/predictive-powers-of-pythagoras.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">click here</span></a>. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. <div><br /></div><div>Once again, here are the 2023 Conference USA standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMoxFDF-u4lFKZhQ4T_m2Dvwk0Orxw992n6NH10oxuWQe1nwkmxonw7d14wShxgAyINkFtgP3eBcN6VUEqJiih7A5sN1gNpzDw1TYHB6tL6NGxNSoYs4_SdjpbiEkPWaHdhvuvZa8AuJqK1SlGI1W2TnpOOt0jGhn_o4_gthp02dHpWW0t4lUT/s243/cusa1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="217" data-original-width="243" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMoxFDF-u4lFKZhQ4T_m2Dvwk0Orxw992n6NH10oxuWQe1nwkmxonw7d14wShxgAyINkFtgP3eBcN6VUEqJiih7A5sN1gNpzDw1TYHB6tL6NGxNSoYs4_SdjpbiEkPWaHdhvuvZa8AuJqK1SlGI1W2TnpOOt0jGhn_o4_gthp02dHpWW0t4lUT/s1600/cusa1.png" width="243" /></a></div><div>And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGS1wWu3rrQb9uc6cG7V57_pMG4_VEySjZFThXv6W3xoEgMb5Ud7aQlzzethHJiFwFZ1L1lf3duvaSbjCJVDofiY-6EjvqyWzRpnAymAQW7NwTeIS_6QRjYiUdJphs4acIdGRNezeDm0w5KwBqDAS4IdHOfUy2zamdHaVF1zJHZK800vT-QI3C/s413/CUSAB1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="413" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGS1wWu3rrQb9uc6cG7V57_pMG4_VEySjZFThXv6W3xoEgMb5Ud7aQlzzethHJiFwFZ1L1lf3duvaSbjCJVDofiY-6EjvqyWzRpnAymAQW7NwTeIS_6QRjYiUdJphs4acIdGRNezeDm0w5KwBqDAS4IdHOfUy2zamdHaVF1zJHZK800vT-QI3C/s320/CUSAB1.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Finally, Conference USA teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPSGfQnI1NLHgDbFpECbVj7O7mkDOuWw1aoxJ3VRRw2wne8GDxZSSdfrUzXiGLF-2mUa8ZQvl1MaBrMjuOpnsyZIwDHRtQed3TOHiGPJAyC4iCrKSBL7batdTusj31yS6A4pE9TZ3O_eujrMsP7h-0wyK9BzhYsMFeuHCeNzdMLKDLRUf5oond/s435/CUSAB2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="435" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPSGfQnI1NLHgDbFpECbVj7O7mkDOuWw1aoxJ3VRRw2wne8GDxZSSdfrUzXiGLF-2mUa8ZQvl1MaBrMjuOpnsyZIwDHRtQed3TOHiGPJAyC4iCrKSBL7batdTusj31yS6A4pE9TZ3O_eujrMsP7h-0wyK9BzhYsMFeuHCeNzdMLKDLRUf5oond/s320/CUSAB2.png" width="320" /></a></div>I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary standard to determine whether or not a team's actual conference record differed significantly from their APR. By that standard, New Mexico State and Liberty overachieved relative to their APR. The Aggies and Flames also overachieved relative to their YPP numbers and we went over some reasons for that last week. <br /><div><br /></div><div><b>First Timers</b></div><div>The <a href="https://conferenceusa.com/tournaments/?id=496&path=football" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">2023 Conference USA Championship Game</span></a> was a matchup of two teams (Liberty and New Mexico State) making their first ever conference championship game appearance. It also marked the first year in Conference USA for each school as both the Flames and Aggies had been competing on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_FBS_independent_schools" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">independent circuit</span></a> for the previous few seasons. How often has an FBS conference title game matched up two teams making their first title game appearance? Glad you asked. Lets take a stroll down memory lane beginning with the birth of the conference title game in the 1990s. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPpaUCL146XSe3c7qqYlAxha5ScwpnRG76WiPDFPHoDZXtBng-i3Gihmqm6sIl0kw6_-2G54dviDlBwMmieni4SFmmpX11JA_2FHyw3UXbkw37KVBj5_orKFYsKstdseCgClhPmbYZfL4sSXOdPhHvLoaSlL4FMOANHa9WSS4D-3YxQyvIUfeY/s628/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.28.41%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="628" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPpaUCL146XSe3c7qqYlAxha5ScwpnRG76WiPDFPHoDZXtBng-i3Gihmqm6sIl0kw6_-2G54dviDlBwMmieni4SFmmpX11JA_2FHyw3UXbkw37KVBj5_orKFYsKstdseCgClhPmbYZfL4sSXOdPhHvLoaSlL4FMOANHa9WSS4D-3YxQyvIUfeY/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.28.41%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Only four conferences held title games in the 90s, so the first championship games held by the SEC (1992), Big 12 (1996), WAC (1996), and MAC (1997) featured first time participants. The first three SEC Championship Games were all clashes between Florida and Alabama and the Gators did not relinquish their stranglehold on the SEC East until 1997. The Big 12 was a little more fluid at the top of the league following <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Osborne" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Tom Osborne's</span></a> retirement after the 1997 season. Finally, the WAC only staged a title game for three seasons before the strongest members <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ex-wac-teams-form-new-conference/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">broke away</span></a> and formed their own conference (the Mountain West). In the 2000s, the ACC and Conference USA got into the conference championship business. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0FsNmJ0DSOn-RnvE5udAibXTSAnpJjDxZCF6n7aKHl6jp4MNGIJ7U1NNNiMKSNM9GO92KFNfdUGWDHuvzIxLwx6DmINKetHT58CVo93i03gagMqO_FQ_BQVoMwI9s8CrQRk0qmH5aFTGfx7NxAtA3sh-Gs3j0XdXSkU9b-Q6676_qeBzF-VXc/s684/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.32.10%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="684" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0FsNmJ0DSOn-RnvE5udAibXTSAnpJjDxZCF6n7aKHl6jp4MNGIJ7U1NNNiMKSNM9GO92KFNfdUGWDHuvzIxLwx6DmINKetHT58CVo93i03gagMqO_FQ_BQVoMwI9s8CrQRk0qmH5aFTGfx7NxAtA3sh-Gs3j0XdXSkU9b-Q6676_qeBzF-VXc/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.32.10%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>The first two ACC Championship Games featured teams making their first conference title game appearances, but the league has not had a pair of newbies in the title game since. The first two Conference USA Championship Games also featured teams making their first conference title game appearances. And finally, the MAC, after years of domination by Marshall and Toledo in their respective divisions, became the egalitarian league we all know and love when its title games featured a pair of greenhorns in four our of six seasons between 2003 and 2008. The 2010s brought even more leagues to the conference title table with all ten FBS conferences eventually staging one. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZY4JE3P9XJOupGo3ib3Dh9Dew4aO1b7MdsuuNhmNvrgLnqcmds4kYNGtEyZkKweC_ZFOVHNBPFW-AeMCLGBjdMWBOML5355vZXoRBkKyRillve_h6zoCMFB7tXhce3PadTztmRtxejX08Hd-HM8HVWZGia0AFpr7Fh38CLerb4wscnOuSjnX/s682/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.35.27%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="682" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZY4JE3P9XJOupGo3ib3Dh9Dew4aO1b7MdsuuNhmNvrgLnqcmds4kYNGtEyZkKweC_ZFOVHNBPFW-AeMCLGBjdMWBOML5355vZXoRBkKyRillve_h6zoCMFB7tXhce3PadTztmRtxejX08Hd-HM8HVWZGia0AFpr7Fh38CLerb4wscnOuSjnX/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.35.27%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>The Big 10 and Pac-12 both held their inaugural title games in 2011, but have not featured two neophytes in the title game since. The American Athletic Conference began holding a conference championship game in 2015, but many of their participants had already played in conference title games in other leagues. It was not until 2019 that their title game featured two teams making their title game debuts. Conference USA's membership was in flux for much of the decade and they saw three consecutive championship games feature teams making their first title game appearance. The Mountain West played their first conference title game in 2013 and two of their first three games saw both participants make their title game debuts. Finally, the Sun Belt became the final FBS conference to host a championship game in 2018. And now we come to the current decade. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9OQCNjYWzV_xz5d3B6Ki8QTpVfnskz9j01vvb7E8fvulvDrK1IZM8tnQmBUxqzQsEAUm0wu8lgvuoVlVBjzRnJSYt3tn75UcOnG6VvjMN8Z1dC1Y0t13n7lPVoG4piclKBfEpWaMhF0XxQeTqoOLqJiW-jX6hLC2FAigQnRGe-26Cb92rQS7k/s684/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.36.34%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="234" data-original-width="684" height="109" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9OQCNjYWzV_xz5d3B6Ki8QTpVfnskz9j01vvb7E8fvulvDrK1IZM8tnQmBUxqzQsEAUm0wu8lgvuoVlVBjzRnJSYt3tn75UcOnG6VvjMN8Z1dC1Y0t13n7lPVoG4piclKBfEpWaMhF0XxQeTqoOLqJiW-jX6hLC2FAigQnRGe-26Cb92rQS7k/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.36.34%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>The 2022 Sun Belt Championship Game featured a pair of teams making their conference title game debuts even thought Coastal Carolina technically won the Sun Belt East in the pandemic impacted 2020 season. The championship game <a href="https://goccusports.com/news/2020/12/17/football-sun-belt-championship-game-canceled.aspx#:~:text=CONWAY%2C%20S.C.%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Sun%20Belt,the%20Coastal%20Carolina%20football%20program." target="_blank"><span style="color: #134f5c;">was canceled that season</span></a>, so the Chanticleers never got to play in the title game. That Sun Belt clash and the most recent Conference USA Championship Game are the only two title games this decade to feature title games newcomers and the odds of another all newbie title game continue to dwindle each season. </div><div><br /></div><div>Here are the potential all-newbie combinations in each championship game beginning with the Power Four. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtoPLlKBtAM_sh9y-JQEUREXjsZ1frLNjGwBybaSGhn_zWcINrDKkD4hL3upIg5vWQqScKvhznvpVjetBx3LZIddPsr5FLgFv9OISAahO0Lwa4WKHkReiGCbWP28hNo3ut8qTIyKy9W8Pl-pspnbnlbDBA_Z4Rw2gyrP8qva1JQVQRhKEveHoa/s818/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.48.16%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="818" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtoPLlKBtAM_sh9y-JQEUREXjsZ1frLNjGwBybaSGhn_zWcINrDKkD4hL3upIg5vWQqScKvhznvpVjetBx3LZIddPsr5FLgFv9OISAahO0Lwa4WKHkReiGCbWP28hNo3ut8qTIyKy9W8Pl-pspnbnlbDBA_Z4Rw2gyrP8qva1JQVQRhKEveHoa/w400-h159/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.48.16%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div>In the ACC, NC State and Syracuse are the only longtime members that have never played in a championship game. They are joined by newcomer Cal who never qualified for the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Big 10 has a quintet of teams that have never played in a conference title game, but with the league <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/37820756/why-big-ten-ditched-divisions-protected-11-games" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">jettisoning divisions</span></a>, a combination of two of these five teams playing in the conference title game in the same season seems quite remote. With traditional powers Oklahoma and Texas departing for the SEC, there is a bit of a power vacuum in the Big 12. This makes it the most likely power conference to stage a championship game where both participants are first timers. Like the Big 10, the SEC is also doing away with divisions, making the odds of an all-first timer title game slim to none. </div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, here are the potential all-newbie combinations for each Group of Five title game. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiODef3K6L8oieSjyjnuT7qSlQS5rDBkozxANhptYOoM3OC9lLovvKEPWUPLJ03bvTZULgBuEJQmZDkR17h5EKXGBFdFcSyzm6cvvjwFBze3aG4Pl9CkwP7C1XTtqeXzX-vYVfKxGRB6ElXOhOM__Q9za7BTTPiHuPvvk62vWFAPgwTSxVfqriF/s1038/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.53.07%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="1038" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiODef3K6L8oieSjyjnuT7qSlQS5rDBkozxANhptYOoM3OC9lLovvKEPWUPLJ03bvTZULgBuEJQmZDkR17h5EKXGBFdFcSyzm6cvvjwFBze3aG4Pl9CkwP7C1XTtqeXzX-vYVfKxGRB6ElXOhOM__Q9za7BTTPiHuPvvk62vWFAPgwTSxVfqriF/w400-h158/Screenshot%202024-03-07%20at%206.53.07%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div>Conference USA and the Sun Belt have by far the best odds of hosting the next all-first timer title game. Five of ten current Conference USA members have never played in a conference title game while eight of fourteen Sun Belt members have been shut out of the game. The Sun Belt is the only FBS conference to maintain divisions though, so that may make things a little more difficult. Eleven of twelve Mountain West members have played in a conference title game (Colorado State and New Mexico faced off in the second ever WAC Championship Game), so until they officially merge with or add the remaining two members of the Pac-12 (Oregon State and Washington State), it is not possible for that league to have two first time championship game participants. The MAC will not be able to host an all-first timers title game until 2025 at the earliest when <a href="https://www.umass.edu/news/article/university-massachusetts-accepts-invitation-join-mid-american-conference-full-member#:~:text=The%20University%20of%20Massachusetts%20has,at%20the%20Football%20Performance%20Center." target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Massachusetts rejoins the league</span></a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>I hope you enjoyed the 2023 Conference USA Championship Game. While it was historic in that it clinched an unbeaten regular season for Liberty and sent them to a New Year's Six Bowl, it also likely marked one of the last times a conference title game will feature two schools with no experience in title games. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-10497555537872372382024-03-07T03:08:00.000-08:002024-03-07T03:08:17.762-08:002023 Yards Per Play: Conference USAAfter six weeks of Power Five reviews, we shift back to the Group of Five and examine Conference USA.<div><br /></div><div>Here are the 2023 Conference USA standings. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin2BpkpjpLrTpsIvnu4Za4ma89chT5meUZJd7yRa0iAaXfYD5fHjr3tgAX9E6-FVtjWLxIZUo8y9cdH-xw23FYSRhbelwgMTtH-T0DGa3vz3M71jINVfCOgFWpQnIgBLKzEYlgLcE550lOnxdgfJa-OuSsNc6QR0RnQXYNVryqlq0u4YyGTUTP/s243/cusa1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="217" data-original-width="243" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin2BpkpjpLrTpsIvnu4Za4ma89chT5meUZJd7yRa0iAaXfYD5fHjr3tgAX9E6-FVtjWLxIZUo8y9cdH-xw23FYSRhbelwgMTtH-T0DGa3vz3M71jINVfCOgFWpQnIgBLKzEYlgLcE550lOnxdgfJa-OuSsNc6QR0RnQXYNVryqlq0u4YyGTUTP/s1600/cusa1.png" width="243" /></a></div><div>So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Conference USA team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkkzNzxaxHcBilUaiCro96LoqoUiR51OvGjpQsVyBV_pNq0O4J3txtBv_Ey4vk76nRrX4VjQQD5woBP17IGw_TbG_veJ_O7DuwYqzviRSV3LXvZPMhBeZCiCjcdQNvCi4DHRVeb2VO9R5jBVF8DzxjzIHiePCpLM-vxgqaDtjhNrf2cuLkPuZd/s401/cusa2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="401" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkkzNzxaxHcBilUaiCro96LoqoUiR51OvGjpQsVyBV_pNq0O4J3txtBv_Ey4vk76nRrX4VjQQD5woBP17IGw_TbG_veJ_O7DuwYqzviRSV3LXvZPMhBeZCiCjcdQNvCi4DHRVeb2VO9R5jBVF8DzxjzIHiePCpLM-vxgqaDtjhNrf2cuLkPuZd/s320/cusa2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in Conference USA met this threshold? Here are Conference USA teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWk_L54PXmd3O2ksgogGt28dSjzsx7Ykqaon0TSIgrzaz8rpJHmQsV3aQWnIR5IHd_z4NrtrUudgdjg5gBIme4gUmkchyNdy4GvbGC_XsO6FMviuQ6yUhhEXNwVKBPnu9kKwnlrCccGCTEhWYtbK9I_YtfzFvi0umruJ94G4sOygJQSp3Ngntg/s467/cusa3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="467" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWk_L54PXmd3O2ksgogGt28dSjzsx7Ykqaon0TSIgrzaz8rpJHmQsV3aQWnIR5IHd_z4NrtrUudgdjg5gBIme4gUmkchyNdy4GvbGC_XsO6FMviuQ6yUhhEXNwVKBPnu9kKwnlrCccGCTEhWYtbK9I_YtfzFvi0umruJ94G4sOygJQSp3Ngntg/s320/cusa3.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>New Mexico State and Liberty significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while Middle Tennessee and UTEP significantly underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. The Aggies and Flames combined for a 15-1 conference record (14-0 against the rest of the league), including a perfect 5-0 mark in one-score conference games. Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders and Miners combined to finish 3-6 in one-score conference games. Both teams also finished with a negative turnover margin in league play, although neither was exceptionally poor in that regard. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>A Dearth of Ranked Teams</b></div><div>Thanks to a confluence of factors in the 2023 bowl season (a <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401551782" target="_blank"><span style="color: #38761d;">blowout loss</span></a> by Liberty, an <a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/college-sports/2023/12/28/boston-college-stuns-smu-fenway-bowl-ends-season-on-high-note-recap/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">upset loss</span></a> by SMU, and coaching upheaval at <a href="https://www.nola.com/sports/tulane/willie-fritz-to-leave-tulane-after-eight-years-for-houston-job/article_5b7b5956-915c-11ee-8168-5b41fd3da867.html#:~:text=Willie%20Fritz%20will%20leave%20Tulane,the%20Cougars%20announced%20Sunday%20morning." target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Tulane</span></a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/30/curt-cignetti-james-madison-indiana-coach/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20124d;">James Madison</span></a>), only two Group of Five teams finished the season ranked in the AP Poll. And those two teams (SMU and Liberty) were historically low (22nd and 25th respectively). Since college football officially separated power conference teams from non-power conference teams in 1998 (first BCS versus non-BCS and later Power Five versus Group of Five), 2023 represented the second fewest number of ranked non-powers. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPtsS6faNuXFUZE_MAdCRPdvu6YZNt37fVSg5Q4XifKXH-54iewSzhRMiqiJah59i7h-84jveyfRARlEjyHMb9N9sL1k4tiIJ6ZYYO0kUY0AiQmy8kT0sMmqp8iZ9mhLYzM4XkKHYtA5gaIE6AFzw9JzzGhjYX6qaEXi4Zi8-Es1w1x3NTfAXZ/s1162/Screenshot%202024-03-01%20at%206.42.35%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1162" data-original-width="652" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPtsS6faNuXFUZE_MAdCRPdvu6YZNt37fVSg5Q4XifKXH-54iewSzhRMiqiJah59i7h-84jveyfRARlEjyHMb9N9sL1k4tiIJ6ZYYO0kUY0AiQmy8kT0sMmqp8iZ9mhLYzM4XkKHYtA5gaIE6AFzw9JzzGhjYX6qaEXi4Zi8-Es1w1x3NTfAXZ/w360-h640/Screenshot%202024-03-01%20at%206.42.35%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="360" /></a></div><div>2023 was tied with five other seasons behind 2005 for the fewest number of non-power teams represented in the final AP Poll. So 2023 was not a great year for non-power teams, but was it really that bad?</div><div><br /></div><div>Another way to look at representation in the AP Poll besides the total number of ranked teams is to award what I dub 'Poll Points' for each ranking spot. A team that finishes first earns 25 Poll Points, second 24, third 23, and so on, until the team ranked 25th earns just a solitary Poll Point. Using that methodology, 2023 was by far the worst season for non-powers in the BCS/CFP era.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVnK76eUE0Dlhtqk-e0EDvhVkO9ohbK3XfkmqcO4ctYJg53ydeu2RXX_Mvr_N44L5tBaEXrM1hb02_tUsme9AyLesVo76rqi6Fj1-HfX9iVRdXgcvzKVAaLy0sUwZgGOc4d72UdHgAaadIByMqzCMuNmAh_ic9V9-VtXHXEZJtiv6HTBJc47FD/s1172/Screenshot%202024-03-01%20at%206.59.26%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1172" data-original-width="580" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVnK76eUE0Dlhtqk-e0EDvhVkO9ohbK3XfkmqcO4ctYJg53ydeu2RXX_Mvr_N44L5tBaEXrM1hb02_tUsme9AyLesVo76rqi6Fj1-HfX9iVRdXgcvzKVAaLy0sUwZgGOc4d72UdHgAaadIByMqzCMuNmAh_ic9V9-VtXHXEZJtiv6HTBJc47FD/w316-h640/Screenshot%202024-03-01%20at%206.59.26%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="316" /></a></div><div>Ranked non-powers accumulated just five Poll Points in 2023 which demolished the previous low of thirteen set in 2001 when Louisville, Toledo, and BYU finished the year ranked 17th, 23rd, and 25th respectively. And speaking of teams like Louisville and BYU, that segues nicely into the main reason there was a dearth of ranked non-powers in 2023. The best non-powers have ascended into power conferences. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the 26 seasons between 1998 and 2023, there were 97 instances where teams from a non-power conference found there way into the final AP Poll. That is a little less than four per season. 36 (roughly 37 percent) of those appearances in the final AP Poll are no longer in non-power conferences. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdBgPEEOkJNuuFmMA5XPO5guHTIh59n65daVX2Wr-mT_2ePg0GD_tQf_ZMpnsc2UgZCvEsETtDRS88uKkfNni79YyC4E079PxEN5VG-0Qa5VNEAGBpz9xFplfiJiqKZROMJ1Y_HpyhoLnkb3rcOO8qfarmW4zo_s2u0I__Qi5V6IN0VahCFVOL/s750/Screenshot%202024-03-01%20at%206.53.22%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="750" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdBgPEEOkJNuuFmMA5XPO5guHTIh59n65daVX2Wr-mT_2ePg0GD_tQf_ZMpnsc2UgZCvEsETtDRS88uKkfNni79YyC4E079PxEN5VG-0Qa5VNEAGBpz9xFplfiJiqKZROMJ1Y_HpyhoLnkb3rcOO8qfarmW4zo_s2u0I__Qi5V6IN0VahCFVOL/w400-h279/Screenshot%202024-03-01%20at%206.53.22%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div>Led by TCU and Utah in the early 2010's, the best of the best from non-power conferences with perhaps one notable exception (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/boise-state/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Boise State</span></a>) have migrated to power conferences. If we look at Poll Points, the results are even more significant. Those 97 ranked teams produced 878 total Poll Points. 406 of those points (46 percent) are now in power conferences. The non-power conferences will have a token seat at the table in the new <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/new-college-football-playoff-format-approved-future-cfp-models--what-happens-to-notre-dame-205431047.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">College Football Playoff format</span></a>, but I expect this trend of few ranked non-powers to continue. The non-powers that have built a brand this century are almost all in power conferences, so the benefit of the doubt will not be given to upstarts. Non-powers will have to post fantastic records to get a sniff of the lower reaches of the AP Poll. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-42599295165162613252024-02-29T02:55:00.000-08:002024-02-29T02:55:14.305-08:002023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Big 12Before we get started, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_29" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Happy Leap Day</span></a> to all who celebrate. Remember, as <a href="https://www.vulture.com/2020/02/30-rock-leap-day-william-episode.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Leap Day</span> <span style="color: #ffd966;">William</span></a> taught us, nothing that happens on this day counts! Last week we looked at how <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2024/02/2023-yards-per-play-big-12.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Big 12 teams fared</span></a> in terms of yards per play.his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2012/03/predictive-powers-of-pythagoras.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">click here</span></a>. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. <div><br /></div><div>Once again, here are the 2023 Big 12 standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl429ijAh3ohPPD7OVLaP1_NK9GXJF4VQwi9l0mFniP_gPF0fEada_lBPxQKBwjh22vKBXXXCv0BC0ZUi4MZixZI9PIZjGPzdzZ3DRm4fV444tDi9cEmToH2_VfyxD4GfG5vCKgAozisi8EOZJuFosiwGC_zZA7JM4F_Uki0UzI6VV9c1vDNrw/s337/b12A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="210" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl429ijAh3ohPPD7OVLaP1_NK9GXJF4VQwi9l0mFniP_gPF0fEada_lBPxQKBwjh22vKBXXXCv0BC0ZUi4MZixZI9PIZjGPzdzZ3DRm4fV444tDi9cEmToH2_VfyxD4GfG5vCKgAozisi8EOZJuFosiwGC_zZA7JM4F_Uki0UzI6VV9c1vDNrw/s320/b12A.png" width="199" /></a></div><div>And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4jxcp2s0YghpCxRiDlPlQd9OW4IGyOFZb9Ia-8dhd3PfU_c8xzMcNRInp8vwGAx65A_Iy-eEoyhbPjZOSR8lZHUgWyprrZD2GtX1tnMFYFo_RyQzH-L7kQ64ctFYKSGQA46G505nhLppSghIc1ko7hwZaDQpCJ-uQRxxITGKphOTRQzwK8uZ/s371/B12B.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="371" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4jxcp2s0YghpCxRiDlPlQd9OW4IGyOFZb9Ia-8dhd3PfU_c8xzMcNRInp8vwGAx65A_Iy-eEoyhbPjZOSR8lZHUgWyprrZD2GtX1tnMFYFo_RyQzH-L7kQ64ctFYKSGQA46G505nhLppSghIc1ko7hwZaDQpCJ-uQRxxITGKphOTRQzwK8uZ/s320/B12B.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Finally, Big 12 teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie8cny1-eznV8Mp-cuzFBcJaFV0T428i3GQO76c1Ts7hXU0-_Mr24i2Sf01rPYAzjco39NmTcypswv-6x3ptmDe9wlj_fIxdSW2EpLjEuw4Tj80CJ7OPkFggPF9790wwYCZSVxrtU6fPQqVas_GERCTZ3fhwiCAYx3ko1OgLpDNd-JYd1aNAty/s400/b12C.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="400" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie8cny1-eznV8Mp-cuzFBcJaFV0T428i3GQO76c1Ts7hXU0-_Mr24i2Sf01rPYAzjco39NmTcypswv-6x3ptmDe9wlj_fIxdSW2EpLjEuw4Tj80CJ7OPkFggPF9790wwYCZSVxrtU6fPQqVas_GERCTZ3fhwiCAYx3ko1OgLpDNd-JYd1aNAty/s320/b12C.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Oklahoma State significantly exceeded their expected APR while TCU and UCF significantly underachieved relative to their APR. Those same three teams also significantly overachieved (Oklahoma State) and underachieved (TCU and UCF) based on their expected record according to YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. No need to rehash those reasons. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>We Like Lance, A Lot</b></div><div>In 2022, Kansas qualified for a bowl game for the first time since the waning days of the George W. Bush administration (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/kansas/2008.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">2008</span></a>). Though they ended the year by losing seven of eight games, including the <a href="https://www.localmemphis.com/article/sports/2022-autozone-liberty-bowl-recap/522-0be91199-11da-4f9e-97f4-12d59932fb5b#:~:text=From%20stadium%20water%20issues%20to,highest%2Dscoring%20bowl%20games%20ever." target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">Liberty Bowl</span></a>, it was a phenomenal season for a team that won a grand total of eight conference games between 2009 and 2021. Expectations were muted heading into 2023, with the Jayhawks <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#big-xii" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">picked to finish ninth</span></a> in the the new look Big 12 by the preseason periodicals. Technically, the Jayhawks only slightly exceeded those modest forecasts, finishing tied for seventh with a 5-4 league record. However, the Jayhawks finished unbeaten in the non-conference and won their bowl game against UNLV to finish 9-4. That record earned them a final ranking in the lower reaches of the AP Poll (23rd) and in the process meant head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_Leipold" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">Lance Leipold</span></a> has now guided two different schools to ranked finishes in the AP Poll. His final team at Buffalo (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/buffalo/2020.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">2020</span></a>) also finished ranked. In fairness that team did not play any regular season non-conference games and thus probably deserves an asterisk of some kind, but leading Buffalo to an unbeaten regular season is still impressive in the face of a global pandemic. Is this a unique achievement? I did some research and actually this is more common than you might think. </div><div>Among coaches that were active in 2023, 26 had guided at least two different FBS programs to ranked finishes. Those coaches are listed alphabetically in the table below. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo-9As3daBJwbfLw7k_PJDmoWcw_51z7YXryFkjTXt4WqQHf9oSZcFj1WS1nENaWRSFwpwjE4fNozUget8r4Sg930fyKKOVqaL3o3U1MK7EsRYS5eAgO_rhh2OwvXUHcEIG86M4kdtGMrdGsb5vDp0mFA-IQ7QsSLN-5rnVS2InqM9cEs7EwmV/s1158/Screenshot%202024-02-22%20at%206.32.06%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1158" data-original-width="712" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo-9As3daBJwbfLw7k_PJDmoWcw_51z7YXryFkjTXt4WqQHf9oSZcFj1WS1nENaWRSFwpwjE4fNozUget8r4Sg930fyKKOVqaL3o3U1MK7EsRYS5eAgO_rhh2OwvXUHcEIG86M4kdtGMrdGsb5vDp0mFA-IQ7QsSLN-5rnVS2InqM9cEs7EwmV/w394-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-22%20at%206.32.06%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="394" /></a></div><div>As usual, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Saban" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Nick Saban</span></a> is in a class (nearly) by himself, having led three different schools to ranked finishes. That achievement looks a little less impressive when you consider that Butch Jones and Steve Sarkisian have done the same. Brian Kelly has also guided three different schools to ranked finishes and while he is a notch below Saban, he is a notch (or two) above Jones and Sarkisian. </div><div><br /></div><div>So roughly 20% of active FBS coaches have led multiple schools to ranked finishes. Not as impressive as I initially thought. However, Leipold has guided two schools that could charitably be described as non-traditional powers to ranked finishes. How can we quantify the difficulty in leading schools like Buffalo and Kansas to ranked finishes versus Alabama and Texas? You could probably do an in-depth historical analysis of each school, but I decided on a much simpler measure. For the 26 coaches that led two different schools to ranked finishes, I looked at their first ranked finish at each school and calculated the amount of time since that school's most recent ranked finish. Using Leipold as an example, prior to 2023, Kansas had last finished ranked in 2007, a span of 16 years. Meanwhile Buffalo had never finished ranked in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/buffalo/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">their history</span></a> prior to their ranked finish in 2020. Since Buffalo had never finished ranked prior to Leipold's arrival, that speaks to the rarity of his accomplishment, but also presented a problem for attempting to quantify that accomplishment. The Bulls have not been playing at the FBS level for a century like other schools. They rejoined FBS in 1999 after playing at the highest level for about a decade in the 1960s. I decided to arbitrarily calculate the amount of time for schools that had never previously been ranked as 25 years. Even if they had fielded a team for longer than that, the landscape of college football and the game itself has changed significantly in the 21st century. Those 26 coaches are listed once again, but this time they are sorted by the average amount of time between their first ranked finish at each school and the schools' most recent ranked finish prior to their arrival. Higher is better, or at least more impressive. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj58T9H2kPzJLDd5QoavM54u8Y4fKjpMjExsECcdOz-MJelWmQxnDw7enPK-mk22BOcnkghLCSsvV1s7Gz01kFMR-KdxYLDrnX7Fg4TArJFADhvwL0tJNY0yCec4O29CbVDkYSGj9Cahbq60jGlxj780t_gFdFw8pVOvzTUeRLdf6wYl9-gVg6a/s1206/Screenshot%202024-02-22%20at%206.48.27%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1206" data-original-width="652" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj58T9H2kPzJLDd5QoavM54u8Y4fKjpMjExsECcdOz-MJelWmQxnDw7enPK-mk22BOcnkghLCSsvV1s7Gz01kFMR-KdxYLDrnX7Fg4TArJFADhvwL0tJNY0yCec4O29CbVDkYSGj9Cahbq60jGlxj780t_gFdFw8pVOvzTUeRLdf6wYl9-gVg6a/w346-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-22%20at%206.48.27%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="346" /></a></div><div>Leipold shines when he adjust for each school's history. He finishes tied for second with PJ Fleck behind James Franklin. Vanderbilt went 64 years between ranked finishes prior to Franklin's arrival and he had the Commodores ranked in back to back seasons (2012 and 2013). Obviously, if Vanderbilt had never finished ranked in their history, the 25 year rule would apply and illogically derate his accomplishment. However, again the 25 year rule is far from perfect, but is intended to put all mid-majors and programs that have recently moved to FBS on a more level playing field. At the other end of the spectrum from Leipold is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_Riley" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">Lincoln Riley</span></a> who inherited a stacked program from Bob Stoops at Oklahoma and engineered a quick turnaround after a momentary lull under Clay Helton at Southern Cal. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-19078961590780394092024-02-22T03:06:00.000-08:002024-02-22T03:06:02.124-08:002023 Yards Per Play: Big 12Before we get started this week, I wanted to take a moment to mention the passing of legendary college basketball coach <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/lefty-driesell-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Lefty Driesell</span></a>. For the unfamiliar, Lefty was a favorite coach of mine and the inspiration for both my old <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM_(software)" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">AIM</span></a> screen name and the address of this blog. Obviously, as a naive 23 year old, SEO optimization did not enter my mind. Before he retired, I was able to see Lefty <a href="https://goheels.com/news/2001/12/21/205490672" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">coach in person</span></a> at the Charlotte Coliseum in December 2001. Hard to believe that was nearly a quarter century ago, but time keeps rolling along. But enough about me, lets get to why you came here in the first place, a look back the Big 12. <div><br /></div><div>Here are the 2023 Big 12 standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYuAIEOrS1m7jJKc-AKhnEbXUw-gzcG3VdOqTggc37E5JzKq1wxWOjtPcsK2iA4DMK_KWaT5Cb-bNVw2puSLxcXSeVFh_6PPvw4grbxt45nxkoh3K3Fdkc14B0cJg4Grk8a1JYTB3qFZ00gwjxZH2WOIkNCxS3AKjmgDM2kVW9WYKvliaMkQTc/s337/b12A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="210" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYuAIEOrS1m7jJKc-AKhnEbXUw-gzcG3VdOqTggc37E5JzKq1wxWOjtPcsK2iA4DMK_KWaT5Cb-bNVw2puSLxcXSeVFh_6PPvw4grbxt45nxkoh3K3Fdkc14B0cJg4Grk8a1JYTB3qFZ00gwjxZH2WOIkNCxS3AKjmgDM2kVW9WYKvliaMkQTc/s320/b12A.png" width="199" /></a></div><div>So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Big 12 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxx-za2k84MzVA3z6PzxcV4JflLbihneyK8xB534t2Dkn63KymUrpX0mtfhIi4WD7fxc8bsvQvOi7PfNzF15XiWRVXALbYN0EtfA9o6b62qgJBWKlAsRSSey0D21tD8Iho4gOhCllgn8x6Pv4maVnyUqYITbACHQhGLTtZS9umJXrXILESHQkX/s368/b12B.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="368" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxx-za2k84MzVA3z6PzxcV4JflLbihneyK8xB534t2Dkn63KymUrpX0mtfhIi4WD7fxc8bsvQvOi7PfNzF15XiWRVXALbYN0EtfA9o6b62qgJBWKlAsRSSey0D21tD8Iho4gOhCllgn8x6Pv4maVnyUqYITbACHQhGLTtZS9umJXrXILESHQkX/s320/b12B.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the Big 12 met this threshold? Here are Big 12 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqX9wafW7EhIhbS1Lt_cETJuXCw5xMtBFKPlFZeRdriBaysUmYoeCq9NPM_s2OERxoRIdAIa86JGtq3kaCb5Y4YC9jVOXAAwK_t-m1mgz2YNNXj17sDFdlMkA848jzfYA4TJi4as-ZrlT7Fe4WUF4Vb_AVQN0BjSNWmAsKwuoun08fjsurLo2x/s467/b12C.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="467" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqX9wafW7EhIhbS1Lt_cETJuXCw5xMtBFKPlFZeRdriBaysUmYoeCq9NPM_s2OERxoRIdAIa86JGtq3kaCb5Y4YC9jVOXAAwK_t-m1mgz2YNNXj17sDFdlMkA848jzfYA4TJi4as-ZrlT7Fe4WUF4Vb_AVQN0BjSNWmAsKwuoun08fjsurLo2x/s320/b12C.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Conference championship game participant Oklahoma State (more on them later) significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while TCU and UCF underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. Oklahoma State was left for dead after a lackluster non-conference performance that included a close win at Arizona State and a <a href="https://usajaguars.com/news/2023/9/16/football-jags-dominate-oklahoma-state-from-start-to-finish-in-33-7-win.aspx#:~:text=STILLWATER%2C%20Okla.,night%20at%20Boone%20Pickens%20Stadium." target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">blowout home loss</span></a> to South Alabama. After a close loss to Iowa State to open conference play, it seemed like Mike Gundy might finally be on his way out in Stillwater. But the Cowboys won their next five conference games (with three coming by one-score) before getting waxed by UCF. At 5-2 and holding the tiebreaker over Oklahoma thanks to their head to head win in Bedlam, the Cowboys pulled off consecutive second half comebacks against Houston (trailed by 14 in the second quarter) and BYU (trailed by 18 at the half) to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cowboys finished 4-1 in one-score conference games and had a decent turnover margin in Big 12 play (+4). Close games pushed the Cowboys to the pinnacle of the Big 12, but they kept TCU and UCF near the bottom of the league standings. One season after holding a horseshoe and four-leaf clover, TCU's good fortune flipped. The Horned Frogs finished 0-3 in one-score conference games (0-4 overall thanks to their <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401523994" target="_blank"><span style="color: #674ea7;">opening loss</span></a> to Colorado) and had the worst in-conference turnover margin in the Big 12 (-8). This kept them home for the holidays one season after they finished as the national runner up. UCF also fared poorly in one-score conference games, posting a 1-3 mark in such games. Their close game losses were especially tight, with two of the defeats coming by a single point and another coming by two points. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Underwater in Championship Games</b></div><div>Doing away with divisions is probably a good thing for college football. I say probably because a team's geographic location should not arbitrarily make their path to the conference title game easier or nigh impossible (see the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/big-ten-football-end-of-divisions-91774f21b3fdb46ae03a5604a7b4dc16" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Big 10</span></a> for instance). However, doing away with divisions also ensures teams like Purdue, Duke, or Wake Forest will not be making conference title appearances for a very long time. Conferences obviously want their best teams to qualify for the championship game because it usually means a better game, more ticket sales, a higher television rating, and beginning in 2024, an opportunity to secure multiple CFP bids. But I'm an egalitarian (and a Wake Forest fan) so I think it rules when Purdue, Duke, or Wake randomly shows up on Championship Saturday. But I'm not here to argue for or against divisions. No, I'm here to point out a statistical anomaly. </div><div><br /></div><div>With unbalanced divisions, its easier for a (statistically) mediocre or bad team to qualify for the conference championship game. With an easy schedule, a few lucky bounces, a tiebreaker, and a small sample size (eight or nine game league schedule) a team that is statistically weak can finish ahead of six or seven other teams in a division. But without divisions, that same team would need to finish ahead of twice as many teams to qualify for the conference championship game. And that is exactly what Oklahoma State did in 2023. The Cowboys finished with a Net YPP of -0.27 and became just the second team to qualify for a conference championship game in a league without divisions with a negative Net YPP. The other team to do so also played in the Big 12. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim_KVTnp-biiQEC5LZr6g-IIkyXou6etLSrNiPp7IsP62fxBd6nweLZ5CzG1EfwTrkWIUMtpHCcVnBiTouofDh72g8i8Ht00xINaor1XJlyynKe-RD88Rh5oVRTBQg9d3mEbegIHzlBl_TR5s0JWaYz3lDRmKBPZ8qOYURwo9mKn9bTg_aoi_r/s574/Screenshot%202024-02-18%20at%203.27.30%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="224" data-original-width="574" height="125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim_KVTnp-biiQEC5LZr6g-IIkyXou6etLSrNiPp7IsP62fxBd6nweLZ5CzG1EfwTrkWIUMtpHCcVnBiTouofDh72g8i8Ht00xINaor1XJlyynKe-RD88Rh5oVRTBQg9d3mEbegIHzlBl_TR5s0JWaYz3lDRmKBPZ8qOYURwo9mKn9bTg_aoi_r/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-18%20at%203.27.30%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Division-less conferences have not been around for very long. By my count there have been 19 such seasons (see below), but the Big 10 and SEC are nixing divisions in 2024, meaning all the power conferences will be free-for-alls. The MAC <a href="https://www.hustlebelt.com/2023/11/30/23982931/mid-american-conference-to-scrap-divisions-in-football-starting-in-2024" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">also announced</span></a> they will not have divisions in 2024, leaving the Sun Belt as the lone holdout. As leagues expand and divisions go away, I expect we will see fewer and fewer teams get to their respective conference title games with negative Net YPPs. Cherish Oklahoma State's 2023 accomplishment for its rarity!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvxRsKluyr2gS3vwmuB9fLMti1_qKf1bNzSGQM8K4uOqtUJ9TPIzmSjX1K-iFxYB65eQPfAitoYZd3Jk4xH4V1x0rGP64QelDzuDvzClnjR-0kWOAD6SRAmcEZ0qg7XhXttmZSWdayIPBqX8cBhUBzSXPMz1Yg5K5rcJL31YDq8B_mYDkfiLot/s612/Screenshot%202024-02-18%20at%203.32.13%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="612" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvxRsKluyr2gS3vwmuB9fLMti1_qKf1bNzSGQM8K4uOqtUJ9TPIzmSjX1K-iFxYB65eQPfAitoYZd3Jk4xH4V1x0rGP64QelDzuDvzClnjR-0kWOAD6SRAmcEZ0qg7XhXttmZSWdayIPBqX8cBhUBzSXPMz1Yg5K5rcJL31YDq8B_mYDkfiLot/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-18%20at%203.32.13%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-33594331254675397882024-02-15T02:40:00.000-08:002024-02-15T02:40:10.027-08:002023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Big 10Last week we looked at how <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2024/02/2023-yards-per-play-big-10.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Big 10 teams fared</span></a> in terms of yards per play.his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2012/03/predictive-powers-of-pythagoras.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">click here</span></a>. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. <div><br /></div><div>Once again, here are the 2023 Big 10 standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQFLQD5Clp1AG3WU_N5uy_x366E9s2MEGZdNaR-HdOFzHU9MPNG4jotGQ5DWkLDDo_V6_LFDXaFBCv4KEBQRc3QjmLyEuceJ0DCKYM-hU1ISU8fonU81AVgAT2jTCxCKGuC5rXW-ntWY2kdz8V1KLIsjfpunAZAgtC16CL2Agw7uwvD8T2koIj/s409/b10A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="242" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQFLQD5Clp1AG3WU_N5uy_x366E9s2MEGZdNaR-HdOFzHU9MPNG4jotGQ5DWkLDDo_V6_LFDXaFBCv4KEBQRc3QjmLyEuceJ0DCKYM-hU1ISU8fonU81AVgAT2jTCxCKGuC5rXW-ntWY2kdz8V1KLIsjfpunAZAgtC16CL2Agw7uwvD8T2koIj/s320/b10A.png" width="189" /></a></div><div>And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8ZeDE2izFnFwQgJdBJKfutQd-HdL83mhJFi4H_cBuMt0TxlXB4PIalNRRdM1QHgdjzV3shyphenhyphenVMMY-ilxD-GV8vVdzd09W9AEJK3ywk5O7PEBN8MjC0MZ_2zDXpNZ1SP9-jBXbCKPQkd_EvJzNyr2T6r2RABYlCRYxv5Vs3uJ3ZQ1x4G7E_cWVN/s418/b10_1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="418" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8ZeDE2izFnFwQgJdBJKfutQd-HdL83mhJFi4H_cBuMt0TxlXB4PIalNRRdM1QHgdjzV3shyphenhyphenVMMY-ilxD-GV8vVdzd09W9AEJK3ywk5O7PEBN8MjC0MZ_2zDXpNZ1SP9-jBXbCKPQkd_EvJzNyr2T6r2RABYlCRYxv5Vs3uJ3ZQ1x4G7E_cWVN/s320/b10_1.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Finally, Big 10 teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWEc-c_97kdA6NpNVsfmZRwSTV3p_SUUv8foTNZ5arXfHc171Lh7Pzkv6jIA3tnMHJCOmlcoa6X6Y-BfnRD81ZoU0GRzKZsLImhLknRYCm1TrGYvDfFPxWATDEfPHk5ECjrWpE7eqPJJlA1XVUgGnnEjlVhXwsDYZ4zh6K1Nfl9lvtBxWf6mIH/s400/b10_2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="400" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWEc-c_97kdA6NpNVsfmZRwSTV3p_SUUv8foTNZ5arXfHc171Lh7Pzkv6jIA3tnMHJCOmlcoa6X6Y-BfnRD81ZoU0GRzKZsLImhLknRYCm1TrGYvDfFPxWATDEfPHk5ECjrWpE7eqPJJlA1XVUgGnnEjlVhXwsDYZ4zh6K1Nfl9lvtBxWf6mIH/s320/b10_2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Using a game and a half as the standard for significant over or underachievement, no Big 10 team saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Losing Teams in Bowl Games</b></div><div>As the bowl schedule has expanded in recent years, more losing teams are finding their way into postseason games. Some may lament the mediocrity (or worse) of their inclusion and hearken back to the days of exclusivity in bowl games. Personally, I don't mind more college football (we don't have any games for roughly eight months out of the year), but to each his own. I'm not here to try and convince you a five win team playing in Detroit the day after Christmas is good (or bad). On the contrary, I want to see if there is any angle where we can make some extra money to pay off those holiday bills. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the BCS/College Football Playoff Era, nineteen teams have participated in a bowl game despite owning a losing record entering the game. Those teams have ranged from champions of brand <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sun-belt/2001.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">new conferences</span></a> (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/north-texas/2001-schedule.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #38761d;">North Texas</span></a> in 2001), to also-rans from the SEC (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/mississippi-state/2016-schedule.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Mississippi State</span></a> in 2016), to a <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa-waives-win-requirements-for-bowl-eligibility-for-2020-season-222344049.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">glut of teams</span></a> willing to play postseason exhibitions in a global pandemic. How have these teams fared both straight up and against the spread? Read on to find out!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjhL1h-7YE2tPclhTxOAIH_wdQ51rYGBwSdNHXTYvu6BXWKqICmYt9Vm4SZ1J6W3SPd3R7m9vt0TtQcZd5QUclsCiQHMa7pj5M5uOIi1WzsnQDiyCdxSIwwbChxRhvwpKhn79pRrj-w-y_zEycXVC8d_9ue_eYY3vb9DhTOYvjM-wOihLLrvK/s936/Screenshot%202024-02-12%20at%207.17.27%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="830" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjhL1h-7YE2tPclhTxOAIH_wdQ51rYGBwSdNHXTYvu6BXWKqICmYt9Vm4SZ1J6W3SPd3R7m9vt0TtQcZd5QUclsCiQHMa7pj5M5uOIi1WzsnQDiyCdxSIwwbChxRhvwpKhn79pRrj-w-y_zEycXVC8d_9ue_eYY3vb9DhTOYvjM-wOihLLrvK/w355-h400/Screenshot%202024-02-12%20at%207.17.27%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="355" /></a></div><div>Those nineteen teams finished with a 10-9 straight up record. Basically, they have been a coin flip to win outright in their bowl games. However, in those nineteen games, they entered as betting underdogs thirteen times meaning we would not have expected them to finish with a winning record. Nineteen games is a small sample, but these losing teams have overachieved at least relative to the moneyline. In addition, motivation does not appear to be an issue for these losing teams. They have won five of the six games in which they entered as favorites. Alas, there does not appear to be a solid ATS trend to take away from this examination. Their cumulative ATS record has also amounted to a coin flip with the teams combing for a 9-10 mark (3-3 ATS as a favorite and 6-7 ATS as an underdog). </div><div><br /></div><div>Unfortunately, there has not been an overarching trend when it comes to betting on or against losing teams in bowl games. My advice is to handicap their games as you would any bowl team. Focus on how they played in the regular season, keep tabs on their opt outs and coaching changes, and don't be afraid to back them on the moneyline if they enter as underdogs. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-6913019144419290672024-02-08T03:12:00.000-08:002024-02-08T03:12:54.052-08:002023 Yards Per Play: Big 10Two conferences down. Eight to go. We head (mid) west this week and examine the Big 10. <div><br /></div><div>Here are the 2023 Big 10 standings. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnvxSvlsM0OQcelb2BVB80USd03wZZa7XQW_RRx4TUNaWImyvOhyphenhyphenoyrePVkLBFJgASPmDnVxYMuIkHvG0vJCSvY3M_QVPLFBHCjMhri4zpQYtxncfwXOWoCvJKUKwan9ZSjMIUCfamK-6ipRSBOHnhLWtuUWk1iC8uOxyYdqQjmIPZzH2QTJo_/s409/b10A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="242" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnvxSvlsM0OQcelb2BVB80USd03wZZa7XQW_RRx4TUNaWImyvOhyphenhyphenoyrePVkLBFJgASPmDnVxYMuIkHvG0vJCSvY3M_QVPLFBHCjMhri4zpQYtxncfwXOWoCvJKUKwan9ZSjMIUCfamK-6ipRSBOHnhLWtuUWk1iC8uOxyYdqQjmIPZzH2QTJo_/s320/b10A.png" width="189" /></a></div><div>So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Big 10 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhir6MnYacHfgH-48ddyYZ__uPWpL4R-8ivwTCvb_U0QoB9SJzmuijx-7SSKAaFVAFUzhdUUAxkPRL6Db0ljZrHznxjS8I4Z6WlAE8sg4khnfMr5TroGDtD59EjIQ06kRT_ZFIdhy7oVl2QJlDcQdS8RaSSffjn0zcYLa6Eqo0lamV6NgwBBTtG/s418/b10B.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="418" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhir6MnYacHfgH-48ddyYZ__uPWpL4R-8ivwTCvb_U0QoB9SJzmuijx-7SSKAaFVAFUzhdUUAxkPRL6Db0ljZrHznxjS8I4Z6WlAE8sg4khnfMr5TroGDtD59EjIQ06kRT_ZFIdhy7oVl2QJlDcQdS8RaSSffjn0zcYLa6Eqo0lamV6NgwBBTtG/s320/b10B.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the Big 10 met this threshold? Here are Big 10 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUl9a7wzqCtLsbAdKmGYC2UgeSCIrrFINMDdW8jgK3bMzGtmrF9MFxoSAXHIZLLJ4pr_dwqLqZyEGVGQII4XC-s6smNifNNErJlhApDhU7o_Yxg6QndpxFVQdZ5IzemK92-5jAlUlICUG5fI6DnzbzlLxQ2DXiI1xL_o8Z3BgUYK2zODvyyDbQ/s467/b10C.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="467" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUl9a7wzqCtLsbAdKmGYC2UgeSCIrrFINMDdW8jgK3bMzGtmrF9MFxoSAXHIZLLJ4pr_dwqLqZyEGVGQII4XC-s6smNifNNErJlhApDhU7o_Yxg6QndpxFVQdZ5IzemK92-5jAlUlICUG5fI6DnzbzlLxQ2DXiI1xL_o8Z3BgUYK2zODvyyDbQ/s320/b10C.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Iowa and Michigan significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while Nebraska and Illinois underachieved. Iowa and Michigan combined to finish 6-1 in one-score conference games and the Wolverines finished with the second best in-conference turnover margin (+15) in the Big 10. Meanwhile, Illinois and Nebraska has the two worst in-conference turnover margins in the Big 10 with the Illini finishing seven turnovers in the hole while Nebraska turned the ball over fifteen more times than their league foes. The Cornhuskers also finished 1-5 in one-score conference games, continuing an incredible trend I shall henceforth refer to as the Curse of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bo_Pelini" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Bo Pelini</span></a>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjbC27KW8sFXooV8OeBpjyuNGUCnvnazGB9DxqIgQGxDV-eiFSoOn9f3H7EbMyNQmgmTuo361lGXpwPI8htI-tkWLY4yvkCS9pb1tLjLYpSkflzIMsdM_h0DrKsHezDowifLONfsUCpznLjkV4Tpy4EhXMtO_jkG5uAJhpKvGdtjzJBlCeSnno/s806/Screenshot%202024-02-02%20at%2012.57.49%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="752" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjbC27KW8sFXooV8OeBpjyuNGUCnvnazGB9DxqIgQGxDV-eiFSoOn9f3H7EbMyNQmgmTuo361lGXpwPI8htI-tkWLY4yvkCS9pb1tLjLYpSkflzIMsdM_h0DrKsHezDowifLONfsUCpznLjkV4Tpy4EhXMtO_jkG5uAJhpKvGdtjzJBlCeSnno/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-02%20at%2012.57.49%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="299" /></a></div><div><b>Outliers</b></div><div>Iowa was bad on offense in 2023. That is not a controversial or surprising statement. Their <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2022/10/brian-ferentz-iowa-nepotism.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffe599;">nepo offensive coordinator</span></a> was under fire before the season began thanks to their lackluster performance throughout his tenure. In order to keep his job, the Iowa offense had to <a href="https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2023/9/9/23865729/brian-ferentz-iowa-offensive-coordinator-25-points-a-game-contract-clause-tracker-nepo-baby" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">average at least 25 points per game</span></a> in 2023. That number included any points scored by the defense or special teams which have been fantastic over the past few seasons. The Hawkeyes just missed their goal of 25 points per game by roughly ten points. Per game. Iowa averaged 15.4 points per game in 2023 and ranked second to last in scoring offense (only Kent State averaged less). As you may have noticed from the YPP table, their per play offensive numbers were also quite bad. The Hawkeyes averaged under four yards per play against Big 10 opponents (3.85). I have YPP numbers going back to 2005, and while the Hawkeyes cannot lay claim to having the worst per play conference offense of any BCS/Power Five team in that span (my alma mater actually <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/wake-forest/2014-schedule.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: black;">holds the record</span></a> with 3.06 in 2014), they are by far the most successful BCS/Power Five team with a dreadful offense. </div><div><br /></div><div>Including Iowa last season, 28 BCS/Power Five teams have averaged less than four yards per play in conference action since 2005. 26 of those 28 teams finished with losing conference records. Iowa, of course, won their division with a 7-2 mark last season and Vanderbilt <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/vanderbilt/2008-schedule.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffe599;">eked out a 4-4 SEC record</span></a> in 2008 while averaging 3.96 yards per play. Twelve of 28 teams finished winless in conference play, seven finished with one conference win, six won two league games, and UCLA in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/ucla/2008-schedule.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">2008</span></a> was the only team to win three (two of their three league wins came against teams that also averaged under four yards per play). Combined the 27 teams not named Iowa, finished 26-201 in conference play, averaging less than one league win! The Hawkeyes were not a great team in 2023, but they were one of the most unique teams in recent college football history. </div><div><br /></div><div>For the curious, all 28 BCS/Power Five teams that averaged under four yards per play are listed below along with their conference record. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfyncCgG8XnA9AFtdw6kOcxImd1sXG42b8ZL8_wdWT0T7to4YjcH_eCef47nfv-RyHpFu8pyPhRvBM-JtsKyo1cNhHW2jpWo2rqcn4o-691LZI_G8lQezdoL6l5bU9Rg9zo5rOdcL-payd6Lc1DxosgXIq2lIkRZMe7ysMOquJV7-3DMazInwD/s1278/Screenshot%202024-02-05%20at%207.21.57%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1278" data-original-width="614" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfyncCgG8XnA9AFtdw6kOcxImd1sXG42b8ZL8_wdWT0T7to4YjcH_eCef47nfv-RyHpFu8pyPhRvBM-JtsKyo1cNhHW2jpWo2rqcn4o-691LZI_G8lQezdoL6l5bU9Rg9zo5rOdcL-payd6Lc1DxosgXIq2lIkRZMe7ysMOquJV7-3DMazInwD/w308-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-05%20at%207.21.57%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="308" /></a></div><div>Non-BCS and Group of Five teams that averaged under four yards per play in conference action did not fare any better. In fact, they were a little worse. Since 2005, fourteen mid-major teams have averaged under four yards per play in league games. Those teams combined for a 9-101 conference record and no team won more than three league games. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHdmERNuV4D9CAzCT3IM57U-AfqVbSJtyya2kC8NbsP8PhKN5vKqgh9sUFFE_wza1buytfgQQryfGgqpZfx33QU1s88QDHbHKn6CBg8wmli-2_6jPB5Stxt2p74f8bMINmj298RvOJzQN8Y37iIYSgv1y9wvqSuv-S8SBA-67GFdk_N3zJND9/s688/Screenshot%202024-02-05%20at%207.34.53%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="604" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHdmERNuV4D9CAzCT3IM57U-AfqVbSJtyya2kC8NbsP8PhKN5vKqgh9sUFFE_wza1buytfgQQryfGgqpZfx33QU1s88QDHbHKn6CBg8wmli-2_6jPB5Stxt2p74f8bMINmj298RvOJzQN8Y37iIYSgv1y9wvqSuv-S8SBA-67GFdk_N3zJND9/w351-h400/Screenshot%202024-02-05%20at%207.34.53%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="351" /></a></div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-38928715457589546012024-02-01T03:21:00.000-08:002024-02-01T03:21:19.269-08:002023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: ACCLast week we looked at how <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2024/01/2023-yards-per-play-acc.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">ACC teams fared</span></a> in terms of yards per play.his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2012/03/predictive-powers-of-pythagoras.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">click here</span></a>. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. <div><br /></div><div>Once again, here are the 2023 ACC standings. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM0Vb_gms5Z6J_mfCGZP6kGbNHK3-E8IfIBjbgF9oE71Adz3XeeKbGII4kayPFJ5_miWN9jvDvFuC9Ha4miR9OqYgYMDkXE8oZypDVFn6dLRNfRZcdlqXrADG5YDehhYxLjQ8k3OQ0MjlCMZrI5o4nE2Go2XsUjobKntQBmjLSvoIL-qSY2fNZ/s337/acc1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="210" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM0Vb_gms5Z6J_mfCGZP6kGbNHK3-E8IfIBjbgF9oE71Adz3XeeKbGII4kayPFJ5_miWN9jvDvFuC9Ha4miR9OqYgYMDkXE8oZypDVFn6dLRNfRZcdlqXrADG5YDehhYxLjQ8k3OQ0MjlCMZrI5o4nE2Go2XsUjobKntQBmjLSvoIL-qSY2fNZ/s320/acc1.png" width="199" /></a></div><div>And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1a_QR8i6eWuEAU7es_aRCVKTA3WP2_ftpRR7zZ3E6qsKutRZA35NA7NQtYflp4tVA0d7K0wLe0O_A7qPkdTIGMpZSfSURPlxb81FHjpTiHlwAyhvDvzaf1ySRaj9lq3eqlkCwWRaCv5ka2zeW-kkpPHJLvkedbc7xpQTP82iYSYTAN4gRW4Ww/s371/accB.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="371" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1a_QR8i6eWuEAU7es_aRCVKTA3WP2_ftpRR7zZ3E6qsKutRZA35NA7NQtYflp4tVA0d7K0wLe0O_A7qPkdTIGMpZSfSURPlxb81FHjpTiHlwAyhvDvzaf1ySRaj9lq3eqlkCwWRaCv5ka2zeW-kkpPHJLvkedbc7xpQTP82iYSYTAN4gRW4Ww/s320/accB.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Finally, ACC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirOZxG0JwN0GkHGduO53vfobhFJBS1o2I1BzeAU3A4yFRlJm9uxh90NSghOv1YNDVJKR9gNiyHZM0o3u_0O0J-NjVff0iPXeI9qomWbScGd2QlSgsPFrOqxobz3_qXbk4q7SHClRuxboZdpqq-ilC4zU_bdlnpWaTK2Tc9fxMAI-wSWjDegDkn/s400/accC.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="400" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirOZxG0JwN0GkHGduO53vfobhFJBS1o2I1BzeAU3A4yFRlJm9uxh90NSghOv1YNDVJKR9gNiyHZM0o3u_0O0J-NjVff0iPXeI9qomWbScGd2QlSgsPFrOqxobz3_qXbk4q7SHClRuxboZdpqq-ilC4zU_bdlnpWaTK2Tc9fxMAI-wSWjDegDkn/s320/accC.png" width="320" /></a></div>Using the somewhat arbitrary standard of a game a half, no ACC teams significantly over or underachieved relative to their APR in 2023. <div><br /></div><div><b>More Than a Feeling</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>*Editors's Note</b></div><div><i>I write (or at least draft) these posts several days or weeks in advance, so this was written prior to Jeff Hafley <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39429573/sources-packers-hire-boston-college-jeff-hafley-dc" target="_blank"><span style="color: #38761d;">taking the Green Bay defensive coordinator job</span></a>. That's an interesting choice for the Packers considering the defenses Boston College put on the field. </i></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Is Boston College a team on the rise or are the Eagles destined to get their head coach fired after 2024? On the one hand, the Eagles rebounded from their first losing season under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Hafley" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">Jeff Hafley</span></a> to finish 7-6 in 2023. They are led by a talented and mobile young quarterback in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/thomas-castellanos-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Thomas Castellanos</span></a>. Castellanos passed for over 2000 yards and rushed for over 1000 yards while accounting for 28 total touchdowns. With another year of experience under his belt, the Eagles should move up a rung or two in the conference pecking order and be one of the better mid-level teams in the ACC. But <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Other_Hand" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">on the other hand</span></a>...</div><div><br /></div><div>While the Eagles finished bowl-eligible in 2023, they won a lot of close games. Five of their six regular season wins came by a touchdown or less. And most of the teams they beat were not very good. They beat <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Cross_Crusaders_football" target="_blank"><span style="color: #20124d;">Holy Cross</span></a> (a good FCS team) by three, Army by three, Virginia by three, Connecticut by seven, and Syracuse by seven. They did beat Georgia Tech by fifteen in Atlanta, but that was by far their best regular season performance outside of their near comeback against Florida State. They won a lot of close games against mediocre to bad teams. And while Castellanos played well in spurts, he was also very erratic. He tossed 14 interceptions on the season. Only three FBS quarterbacks threw more. And while Castellanos is young enough to expect improvement, the other side of the ball was in veritable shambles. In ACC action, the Eagles allowed nearly seven yards per play (6.99) and 34 touchdowns, both worst in the conference. But perhaps the biggest indictment toward any pro-Eagles optimism has been their Vegas power rating over the past few seasons. </div><div><br /></div><div>Their have been three full college football seasons since the 2020 campaign was impacted by Covid. During those three seasons, Las Vegas bookmakers have made the Eagles betting favorites in ACC play three times. That is easily the lowest total of any ACC team in that span. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLYIrHmBHO3Mr2NThCwdcQAfHL_DmHQZNDlh95Louyd-w_kOWA7qqtmgfyadMKpgGWBaZYT1R1TdYqJIjUHEnhDigxPKhnm2MM5ku3M1VqjFjHLTImkzAZxtIbNXUPM5abmNTSkY-6_4iSbB49G4-ji01QnuGTgO99Ao05MMtgPMr5EuEN_-jm/s706/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%207.01.16%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="576" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLYIrHmBHO3Mr2NThCwdcQAfHL_DmHQZNDlh95Louyd-w_kOWA7qqtmgfyadMKpgGWBaZYT1R1TdYqJIjUHEnhDigxPKhnm2MM5ku3M1VqjFjHLTImkzAZxtIbNXUPM5abmNTSkY-6_4iSbB49G4-ji01QnuGTgO99Ao05MMtgPMr5EuEN_-jm/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%207.01.16%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="261" /></a></div><div>Only Virginia and Syracuse come close to the betting line futility Boston College has endured over the past three seasons (note Virginia has also played one fewer game as their ACC finale against Virginia Tech in 2022 <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35078735/virginia-virginia-tech-football-game-canceled-wake-shooting" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">was canceled</span></a>). While the betting line and the betting market are not perfect indicators of team strength, they serve as a solid proxy for how good teams are. The line and the market are updated after each game so the evaluation of a team can look very different in November than it did in August. Despite being bowl-eligible in two of those three seasons, the market never warmed to the Eagles. Perhaps they will remain undervalued by the betting market in 2024, but I think this serves as a giant red flag and solid indicator to bet against Boston College, both in the preseason over/under win total market and the point spread market early next season. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-34367410087094550002024-01-25T03:07:00.000-08:002024-01-30T16:11:57.431-08:002023 Yards Per Play: ACCWe are ten percent of the way through out offseason previews. Next conference up is the ACC.<div><br /></div><div>Here are the 2023 ACC standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPKSIhzmqjCM6YqVhrfCpcVl9fI8P6ckg2Gpz-Ox6J9ZrnFhT9dU1i1SuIQc55giKRQBdDzBRtURQMJagNgwgBvn2HQ3-m1qZ6lPr7gTbhRNhbZO8TARAEkycP9cMXz90iHGGaQ-2zhMFQTlrT02jS0s5vzGKtw0ay6hBunMUT3M7Ky3E-Blnc/s337/acc1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="210" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPKSIhzmqjCM6YqVhrfCpcVl9fI8P6ckg2Gpz-Ox6J9ZrnFhT9dU1i1SuIQc55giKRQBdDzBRtURQMJagNgwgBvn2HQ3-m1qZ6lPr7gTbhRNhbZO8TARAEkycP9cMXz90iHGGaQ-2zhMFQTlrT02jS0s5vzGKtw0ay6hBunMUT3M7Ky3E-Blnc/s320/acc1.png" width="199" /></a></div><div>So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each ACC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEg9MNatnbEqLcydwHDApZ_i_xL5_spxDjPwqLO0yyuUcscWjv4_g3KrvT7JZSmmL_Bzyp5A5VTdGt-_VPaDk0A33R6Feg7t6EAGObRGkp-Pb-l86_y0yFvtYMMITByRuKVysMsh096AZ3nAmI1koCLXto7GN2-h_LCbPOyPf2vE89WKPrAbp_/s368/acc2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="368" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEg9MNatnbEqLcydwHDApZ_i_xL5_spxDjPwqLO0yyuUcscWjv4_g3KrvT7JZSmmL_Bzyp5A5VTdGt-_VPaDk0A33R6Feg7t6EAGObRGkp-Pb-l86_y0yFvtYMMITByRuKVysMsh096AZ3nAmI1koCLXto7GN2-h_LCbPOyPf2vE89WKPrAbp_/s320/acc2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the ACC met this threshold? Here are ACC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYTjRxkeFt3XOV_ia0MZ02UkKzdcggz8vamHNdUm2EjsQw1Xb18w7CVYNejZNsgunjrDyRfp-ymdyPWPM9oJFCZ1aEGxFtA4mZMhOyWw5zVrrFToMp1prvqFKKOCSbdT_EnxGHxVy0sp3eOo5G3WiJ349yK5H4yLa1eN7a7jcbndBaf2jLnJWx/s467/acc3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="467" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYTjRxkeFt3XOV_ia0MZ02UkKzdcggz8vamHNdUm2EjsQw1Xb18w7CVYNejZNsgunjrDyRfp-ymdyPWPM9oJFCZ1aEGxFtA4mZMhOyWw5zVrrFToMp1prvqFKKOCSbdT_EnxGHxVy0sp3eOo5G3WiJ349yK5H4yLa1eN7a7jcbndBaf2jLnJWx/s320/acc3.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>NC State and Florida State exceeded their expected record based on YPP, while Pittsburgh underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. For the Wolfpack and Seminoles, the reasons they exceeded their expected records are obvious. Both schools combined to finish 6-1 in one-score conference games and they were also the top two teams in terms of in-conference turnover margin in the ACC (at +10 and +6 respectively). As for Pittsburgh, I can't find anything in the stats that helps explain why their expected record differs so significantly from their actual record. The Panthers were not unlucky in close games (1-1) and their in-conference turnover margin was mediocre (-1). Their fourth down conversion rate and red zone touchdown rates were close to their opponents. They actually scored more non-offensive touchdowns (3) than they allowed (2) in ACC play. This one will remain a mystery. I suppose we can just lay the blame at the feet of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Narduzzi" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Pat Narduzzi</span></a> and his antiquated approach to offense. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Moving On Up</b> </div><div>As you may have read or heard, the ACC has had some <a href="https://www.si.com/college/fsu/football/new-report-reveals-seven-schools-actively-exploring-departure-from-acc" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">membership drama</span></a> over the past year. I'm not a reporter and I am not in the business of making membership predictions, so I will be just as surprised as you when Clemson jumps to the Big 10 and the ACC replaces them with Memphis. Instead of dealing with hypotheticals, lets examine the universe as it is. </div><div><br /></div><div>When the Pac-12 <a href="https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2023-09-01/pac-12-obituary" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">died over the summer</span></a>, the ACC tossed a life raft to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California" target="_blank"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Golden State</span></a> nerd schools <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/38304694/sources-acc-votes-invite-stanford-cal-smu" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffd966;">Cal and Stanford</span></a>. Whether that life raft brought them on to a ship that was also sinking remains to be seen. While Cal and Stanford will be interesting fits in the ACC for however long the conference exists in its current incarnation, I think the more intriguing case is the third team from west of the Mississippi that is joining the league, the SMU Mustangs.</div><div><br /></div><div>Before the term was coined, SMU was a member of a power conference. The Mustangs joined the <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/swc/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Southwest Conference</span></a> in 1918 and were members of the Texas cabal until the league <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30424417/i-wishof-well-demise-southwest-conference-25-years-later" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cc0000;">dissolved</span></a> after the 1995 season. SMU had a good run in the early 1980's, finishing ranked in each season from 1980 through 1984. That success was later deemed to be ill-gotten (check out the 30 for 30 film <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1704731/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Pony Excess</span></a> for details) and SMU was given the '<a href="https://time.com/3720498/ncaa-smu-death-penalty/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Death Penalty</span></a>' for the reprehensible violation of paying college athletes. The 'Death Penalty' did its job and pretty much killed the SMU program. Thus, they were not a hot commodity when the Southwest Conference died and were forced to downgrade to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Athletic_Conference" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">WAC</span></a> (the nation's first Super Conference) in 1996. They have continued to bounce around since, joining Conference USA in 2005 and the AAC in 2013. Now, after nearly 30 years, they are back in a power conference. What then, are reasonable expectations in their first year in the 'big leagues'? To answer that, we look as we often do, to the past for guidance. </div><div><br /></div><div>Just a note before we dive into this, when I use the term 'power conference', I am referring to conferences that were part of the old BCS system and are now part of the Power Four (formerly Power Five) in the College Football Playoff era. SMU's move to the ACC marks the fifth time a power conference has drafted teams from non-power conferences to fill out its ranks. The first conference to do this was the Big East in 2004 and 2005. The league lost <a href="https://www.espn.com/ncaa/news/2003/0624/1572498.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">Miami and Virginia Tech</span></a> to the ACC prior to the 2004 season and replaced them with a team in just their fifth year as an FBS program, the Connecticut Huskies. The following season, the Big East lost another team, Boston College, to the ACC and replaced the Eagles with three Conference USA teams (Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida). While this is technically two replacements, I'm grouping them together since they happened back to back in the same conference. How did those four newcomers perform?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpkWaQv58cNykwVv0gtdYm6qTfmYx8tHU4RFicaj1zoyaIe58zEN_Mhb5WuLTHQSblTX2eos_yD9e9KlwNCh_mq4_2vvWK0Fiz-f3TP_cSXb1TvZWOdVBDLi0LTVDQpj12MNJKvEXFv4waMW0fprppu8Z-y2OY-9kBjygJcS40DgnCH38q9ulE/s1202/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.41.36%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="308" data-original-width="1202" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpkWaQv58cNykwVv0gtdYm6qTfmYx8tHU4RFicaj1zoyaIe58zEN_Mhb5WuLTHQSblTX2eos_yD9e9KlwNCh_mq4_2vvWK0Fiz-f3TP_cSXb1TvZWOdVBDLi0LTVDQpj12MNJKvEXFv4waMW0fprppu8Z-y2OY-9kBjygJcS40DgnCH38q9ulE/w640-h164/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.41.36%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>Louisville and South Florida posted winning conference records in their first season in the Big East. And while these teams started out hot, Cincinnati had the most staying power in the league, posting winning conference records in six of their eight years as a member of the Big East. Collectively, these four teams combined to go 14-13 in their first season of Big East play. And while that is a winning record, it should be noted that only half the teams in the eight team league were power conference veterans (Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, and West Virginia). </div><div><br /></div><div>The next conference to bring a non-major conference team into their mix was the Pac-10 in 2011. The league added Colorado from the Big 12 and Utah from the Mountain West and rechristened themselves the Pac-12. Utah was a Mountain West power, but it took the Utes awhile to acclimate in their new league. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZkoUdXGOzo-233NnlDBWVyeYolLo_G1t2XtZTWWqn6uB17PSz-dStjPgi8YrX715dZTIh06RYjHQLeWFhWRU7F3sXglmv1Bty_Fw58Y0IM9PbOhQFGhmDpYMDYMqjnTK5j4uAOHPy7kT9Q4lsDqKZy_9iGHc_Z3luTh2Bq2vKMZ7YwNkXGMR0/s1206/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.40.12%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="1206" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZkoUdXGOzo-233NnlDBWVyeYolLo_G1t2XtZTWWqn6uB17PSz-dStjPgi8YrX715dZTIh06RYjHQLeWFhWRU7F3sXglmv1Bty_Fw58Y0IM9PbOhQFGhmDpYMDYMqjnTK5j4uAOHPy7kT9Q4lsDqKZy_9iGHc_Z3luTh2Bq2vKMZ7YwNkXGMR0/w640-h102/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.40.12%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>The Utes posted losing conference records in each of their first three seasons in the Pac-12 before becoming a veritable power in the late aughts. The Utes played in four consecutive non-Covid Pac-12 Championship Games between 2018 and 2022, with the final two resulting in conference titles. </div><div><br /></div><div>The third conference to add a non-major team was the Big 12 which did so the very next season. The Big 12 brought West Virginia over from the Big East, but their non-major draft pick was TCU. The Horned Frogs were another Mountain West power, but they also struggled initially in their new home. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik9dZnHt0XEC-wx7XVZ8i7xhEBcLzmIGwk9m-GP-Zw79vmC-q2y5vH15053hCGy-c1ACO9xUR72Q6CRbiVG1aiX67V_0LxrFa8zN9qmHsy5av6kmahzCIUS7EVFPqC67De6kWm0MeHWkXuB0980HVILcO32jPyE0e0IplCIPK_5AcBuJeiaLjw/s1218/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.43.06%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="188" data-original-width="1218" height="98" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik9dZnHt0XEC-wx7XVZ8i7xhEBcLzmIGwk9m-GP-Zw79vmC-q2y5vH15053hCGy-c1ACO9xUR72Q6CRbiVG1aiX67V_0LxrFa8zN9qmHsy5av6kmahzCIUS7EVFPqC67De6kWm0MeHWkXuB0980HVILcO32jPyE0e0IplCIPK_5AcBuJeiaLjw/w640-h98/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.43.06%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>The Horned Frogs had losing conference records in their first two seasons in the Big 12 and despite breaking through with a shared league title and near College Football Playoff bid in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/big-12/2014.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #351c75;">2014</span></a>, they have struggled to consistently win in league play, posting just five winning conference records in their twelve years in the league. </div><div><br /></div><div>After adding the Horned Frogs, the Big 12's membership was constant for a few years until the SEC surprised everyone and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31920686/texas-longhorns-oklahoma-sooners-unanimously-accept-invitation-sec" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">poached Oklahoma and Texas</span></a> in the summer of 2021. The Sooners and Longhorns would remain in the league for three more seasons, but the Big 12 made plans to replace them by raiding the AAC. They brought over Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF in 2023 and augmented that trio with BYU which had been playing as an independent for more than a decade. However, to say those teams struggled when moving up is putting it lightly. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ_PRM2QuZpOcwfkHMGNZ_mN_F2_qqwCUKM3B0sX2wvmqnTIwkw2LCCdpae0LZKCh93MEMUsIy2pWjvxpJyUNezFWRkE2xAZM9nUjz-3MyHMt6tZr1uL6vvKkvfVoV3n62tnKEX1F6ph-EXgAO-btogr7jkpOvnhUAwNK5Z9LUel2NdL2JBSDx/s468/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.45.43%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="290" data-original-width="468" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ_PRM2QuZpOcwfkHMGNZ_mN_F2_qqwCUKM3B0sX2wvmqnTIwkw2LCCdpae0LZKCh93MEMUsIy2pWjvxpJyUNezFWRkE2xAZM9nUjz-3MyHMt6tZr1uL6vvKkvfVoV3n62tnKEX1F6ph-EXgAO-btogr7jkpOvnhUAwNK5Z9LUel2NdL2JBSDx/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-17%20at%207.45.43%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>The quartet combined for an 8-28 league record in 2023 and were just 4-24 against veteran Big 12 members. </div><div><br /></div><div>With that history, I think expectations should be muted for SMU, at least in their first season. The previous ten teams that moved up combined to finish 30-51 in league play in their first seasons in their new locales. Seven of the ten teams finished with losing conference records and the only teams that finished with winning records (Louisville and South Florida) played in a conference that was populated with other teams moving up. SMU <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">finished ranked</span></a> for the first time since 1984 and won the AAC last season, but they also finished 0-3 against Power Five opponents. All of those games came away from home and one was <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401551750" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">in a bowl</span></a> where things can get weird. However, only one of those opponents could be classified as good. Oklahoma was top-fifteen last season, but TCU and Boston College were mid at best. SMU dominated their AAC opponents last season, but they only beat three teams that played in a bowl game (Rice, Memphis, and Tulane) The ACC is not the strongest power conference, but I think the Mustangs will struggle as they adjust to a more <a href="https://fbschedules.com/2024-smu-football-schedule/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">difficult schedule</span></a>. If they win half their league games next season, I would consider that a success. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-7471372427490049722024-01-18T03:14:00.000-08:002024-01-21T08:33:40.525-08:002023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: AACLast week we looked at how <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2024/01/2023-yards-per-play-aac.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">AAC teams fared</span></a> in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2012/03/predictive-powers-of-pythagoras.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">click here</span></a>. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. <div><br /></div><div>Once again, here are the 2023 AAC standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRyNdS1hm-c1Ig8hfmbCee5Y8UhytLptBCrocIb3Leo6L74cOD2Uy_K5SRg3adnJw_Cu48tmXMM-pybO_dls096yJrEdcexHvHopty8FwTl1XI8xNrKwWf1SeriJ0FPURw8DsMnyJzMtPnVWOk0G52NRsC7b-IEgX-hB9VMSl_Zt7_UZVrU3c-/s337/aac1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="210" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRyNdS1hm-c1Ig8hfmbCee5Y8UhytLptBCrocIb3Leo6L74cOD2Uy_K5SRg3adnJw_Cu48tmXMM-pybO_dls096yJrEdcexHvHopty8FwTl1XI8xNrKwWf1SeriJ0FPURw8DsMnyJzMtPnVWOk0G52NRsC7b-IEgX-hB9VMSl_Zt7_UZVrU3c-/s320/aac1.png" width="199" /></a></div><div>And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-yk2LNZsDWIsXmlXAqO0uz5m-3GSLgh4tQfMAi3kWk7MVlXibkrR-FBAwOrK3Jke8MquxdfGv2B2T9Derq-n05_8BPUe31lMOdyY_g9wYeKnuoqDNzwQfiYmwPR6Nj_wMesfdEQ14ALsnbB9rvv_FIvN8zSklG5aCnlApG6QV96tzGP4a5UO4/s371/aacA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="371" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-yk2LNZsDWIsXmlXAqO0uz5m-3GSLgh4tQfMAi3kWk7MVlXibkrR-FBAwOrK3Jke8MquxdfGv2B2T9Derq-n05_8BPUe31lMOdyY_g9wYeKnuoqDNzwQfiYmwPR6Nj_wMesfdEQ14ALsnbB9rvv_FIvN8zSklG5aCnlApG6QV96tzGP4a5UO4/s320/aacA.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh97_6FfKnWSMMJI6q7pX0yuj0kkMyulMA3SugHUV0QYLHzBQ7AqiKscRlvoJNDxItcInV7kGNPPh8k6JoTxBTSp42Fg0lkpwikoa6ZvRRN70OTFyZh5-HWEZfHKzPI1Q7AK1gzlvIsTmDXRd3GV_fcw8_smRPg8pscmUAVetuD9ely-ipV8vMb/s400/aacB.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="400" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh97_6FfKnWSMMJI6q7pX0yuj0kkMyulMA3SugHUV0QYLHzBQ7AqiKscRlvoJNDxItcInV7kGNPPh8k6JoTxBTSp42Fg0lkpwikoa6ZvRRN70OTFyZh5-HWEZfHKzPI1Q7AK1gzlvIsTmDXRd3GV_fcw8_smRPg8pscmUAVetuD9ely-ipV8vMb/s320/aacB.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Tulane won an incredible two and a half more games than we would have expected based on the ratio of their touchdowns scored and allowed in AAC play. The Green Wave also greatly exceeded their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic won almost two fewer games than we would have expected based on their touchdown ratio. The Owls were not terrible in close games (1-2 in one-score league games) and they actually had a positive in-conference turnover margin (+3). So what was the reason for the disconnect between their actual record and their APR? Like UAB last week, I think the culprit is fourth down success. The Owls went for it on fourth down 25 times in AAC play and they converted those opportunities less than half the time (11). The Owls were particularly bad in their four-game losing streak to close the season. In that streak, they made 17 fourth down attempts and converted just six times. That amounts to eleven hidden turnovers over four games, two of which the Owls lost by three points apiece. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Using the Preseason AP Poll to Make Conference Championship Game Bets</b></div><div>The title is straightforward and a bit of a mouthful, but it also serves as a good way to increase your bankroll when Championship Weekend rolls around. Allow me to explain. </div><div><br /></div><div>Three years a go, I wrote about how you can go about <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2021/02/2020-adjusted-pythagorean-record-acc.html" target="_blank">s<span style="color: #073763;">potting a championship game blowout</span></a>. The basic idea of the post is this: When handicapping college football championship games, one of the easiest (and most profitable) methods is to simply look at the preseason AP Poll. If one of the teams was ranked in the preseason AP Poll (particularly the top ten) and the other was not, betting on the team that was ranked in the preseason can usually lock in a profit for you. The table below lists the results for Power Five title games where one team was ranked in the preseason AP Poll and the other was not.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm_qjk8XprSL3THiXVc-Gscce7kC2dfC2EJRj99H2RhvHaWCztWGubZ5UmFbdlCHhl8KZ_udSpCo0qixCIxjECNTFSCHjaq9-Nk1xq2RQ2o5l_P5JrvhDnz56cpUjm5qj_cGFV58r2Ylsp2xH0rrFJIMd-N6LLfndzCsxGgGECSjrxD30PekoX/s644/Screenshot%202024-01-09%20at%207.04.09%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="644" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm_qjk8XprSL3THiXVc-Gscce7kC2dfC2EJRj99H2RhvHaWCztWGubZ5UmFbdlCHhl8KZ_udSpCo0qixCIxjECNTFSCHjaq9-Nk1xq2RQ2o5l_P5JrvhDnz56cpUjm5qj_cGFV58r2Ylsp2xH0rrFJIMd-N6LLfndzCsxGgGECSjrxD30PekoX/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-09%20at%207.04.09%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Those teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll have won more than 90% of championship games against teams that began the year unranked. While their ATS mark is not quite as strong, they have covered nearly twice as often as not. This situation played out twice in 2023. Florida State and Texas began the year ranked eighth and eleventh respectively in the preseason AP Poll and faced teams in their respective conference title games that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll (Louisville and Oklahoma State). The Seminoles (with their </span><a href="https://www.thescore.com/ncaaf/news/2782923" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">third string quarterback</span></a><span style="text-align: left;">) and Longhorns both won and covered. </span></div><div><br /></div><div>If we look solely at teams that began the year in the top ten of the preseason AP Poll, the results are pretty similar. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieHIrFbf_SNeHjU1z7-5SpPwZhgEVRlxfTjp-s4GDa2RHW5Yt6NV8TSnxVevu4_l4iuSygaEYSsQ1qj0P_lAPpenYgVIzKtLEyU4zUahiXKxs2DR9BkWniw8quEm1TQ41xq5mVwees86SGTSnghmzSD8-b_z01T7KeFRBdwKNfvYSdXKtE2377/s658/Screenshot%202024-01-09%20at%207.07.13%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="658" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieHIrFbf_SNeHjU1z7-5SpPwZhgEVRlxfTjp-s4GDa2RHW5Yt6NV8TSnxVevu4_l4iuSygaEYSsQ1qj0P_lAPpenYgVIzKtLEyU4zUahiXKxs2DR9BkWniw8quEm1TQ41xq5mVwees86SGTSnghmzSD8-b_z01T7KeFRBdwKNfvYSdXKtE2377/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-09%20at%207.07.13%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div>Those teams won their conference title game 93% of the time and covered over 64% of the time. </div><div><br /></div><div>Those were Power Five numbers. Does this trend hold at the Group of Five level? Glad you asked. As you may have guessed, teams from the Group of Five are much less likely to begin the season ranked in the preseason AP Poll. It's even less likely for said preseason ranked team to play in their conference title game against a team that was not in the preseason AP Poll. In fact, it has only happened seven times. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsQipr1pAx1dBrQrDXMUYSvZOxNXJvoYHSXhE5XtlBnwu9Buo-upDmnEMRyyFn1QAYtuSv-r29NQuu25k9IvfQeETidlCgv05fQHoA7mZsdmaxdjv7x9lbA-G8y7MOO8Tw05Glt_ktxkSz5VOBBgZXLfwBEtI2wOsOidfxY-wKhpt3A23X-EjD/s830/Screenshot%202024-01-09%20at%207.19.01%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="538" data-original-width="830" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsQipr1pAx1dBrQrDXMUYSvZOxNXJvoYHSXhE5XtlBnwu9Buo-upDmnEMRyyFn1QAYtuSv-r29NQuu25k9IvfQeETidlCgv05fQHoA7mZsdmaxdjv7x9lbA-G8y7MOO8Tw05Glt_ktxkSz5VOBBgZXLfwBEtI2wOsOidfxY-wKhpt3A23X-EjD/w400-h259/Screenshot%202024-01-09%20at%207.19.01%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div>Those seven teams won their conference title games over 70% of their time, but their ATS record was less definitive. This situation also played out in 2023 with Tulane facing SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Off a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022, the Green Wave were ranked in the preseason AP Poll, while SMU began the year unranked. Despite that difference, and despite the homefield advantage enjoyed by Tulane, the Mustangs dispatched the Green Wave to win their first conference title since <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/swc/1984.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">1984</span></a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what should you do when making your championship game bets in December? For Power Five conferences, if you see a matchup between teams that fit these preseason ranked/unranked criteria, strongly consider backing the team ranked in the preseason AP Poll. If you can't pull the trigger, pass on the game, but under no circumstances should you back the team that began the season unranked. For Group of Five games, this law is much less ironclad, but if the Group of Five team was ranked in the preseason top ten of the AP Poll, they may be worth a look. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-20820034058516970992024-01-11T03:21:00.000-08:002024-01-11T03:21:37.133-08:002023 Yards Per Play: AACThe college football season is over and the longest offseason in sports begins. To help you get through, we'll revisit all ten conferences as we have for the past seven years via conference only Yards Per Play numbers and the Adjusted Pythagorean Record to see which teams may have been better or worse than their actual record. We'll begin as we always do with the American Athletic Conference. <div><br /></div><div>Here are the 2023 AAC standings. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL_Zb2bQxfMumKGex75fHET05iqBNWx4eFNjM0kIJKGV5mmn10Uw9wpM3xYp3EeqTTdqOyQ6Z0exz8UDaGciQu9Ut6M0rUX8m_sT5L4O5noGD_ysCxrtyxoZ3sMAPKMW4V9a_LYSHt2d1Urol1Esw85SvzUFUn8tsHDwaC6j5RdIIVH8rm__6e/s337/aac1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="210" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL_Zb2bQxfMumKGex75fHET05iqBNWx4eFNjM0kIJKGV5mmn10Uw9wpM3xYp3EeqTTdqOyQ6Z0exz8UDaGciQu9Ut6M0rUX8m_sT5L4O5noGD_ysCxrtyxoZ3sMAPKMW4V9a_LYSHt2d1Urol1Esw85SvzUFUn8tsHDwaC6j5RdIIVH8rm__6e/s320/aac1.png" width="199" /></a></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each AAC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw8JyV50qsMc8AJeBQYiQfeDiSZ_WnYhOPDaBqsJxRuhjks9UTxKKVE222ZJ751TiQTl5Hszr9VPaYH-dmah6xEuEfZy1yQpFfMxXs7YGLRwdqC012MeADq2ZQWNUnPCBtRlFuJSsDr1oWppfYr88uHoRa-K2drjxEhbWHIt7vTlOu1taCQS7f/s368/aac3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="368" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw8JyV50qsMc8AJeBQYiQfeDiSZ_WnYhOPDaBqsJxRuhjks9UTxKKVE222ZJ751TiQTl5Hszr9VPaYH-dmah6xEuEfZy1yQpFfMxXs7YGLRwdqC012MeADq2ZQWNUnPCBtRlFuJSsDr1oWppfYr88uHoRa-K2drjxEhbWHIt7vTlOu1taCQS7f/s320/aac3.png" width="320" /></a></div></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the AAC met this threshold? Here are AAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #222222; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaDP021aKOGC45XuTR3gHnh5A64oRNEAMeZZZIIkL6GXCixtIbU8tmjan8Kf-wWj7L_8g-HlsLG1xS1CEJtgaIMCuZSmzLFQoZM8f35zJ16k1BSvyE46jY0hH6Gil38dIdQYGs0bNaope0zfmQ9rmxZKoF5mxOogdDtNv90K4FH77blK3n_E7Z/s467/aac2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="467" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaDP021aKOGC45XuTR3gHnh5A64oRNEAMeZZZIIkL6GXCixtIbU8tmjan8Kf-wWj7L_8g-HlsLG1xS1CEJtgaIMCuZSmzLFQoZM8f35zJ16k1BSvyE46jY0hH6Gil38dIdQYGs0bNaope0zfmQ9rmxZKoF5mxOogdDtNv90K4FH77blK3n_E7Z/s320/aac2.png" width="320" /></a></div><span style="color: #222222;">Tulane and Memphis exceeded their expected record based on YPP while UAB fell short of theirs. Tulane and Memphis won all (or at least most) of the close ones, finishing a combined 7-1 in one-score conference games. Meanwhile, UAB was not unlucky in one-score league games, finishing 1-1 in such contests. Turnover margin also doesn't do a good job of explaining the dissonance between their expected record based on YPP and their actual record. The Blazers had a mediocre -1 turnover margin in league play. Once you dig deeper though, you find the culprit was fourth down success and red zone scoring. The Blazers went for it 18 times on fourth down in conference play and converted exactly half the time. Their defense faced 24 fourth down attempts and allowed 16 conversions. That is roughly seven hidden turnovers spread out over the course of an eight game conference slate. While the Blazers were about average in terms of fourth down success on offense, they struggled mightily in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They had 31 red zone drives in league play and scored touchdowns on less than half of them (15). Meanwhile, their defense allowed 41 red zone drives and opponents netted a touchdown nearly 70% of the time (28). The </span><a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DilfTr00.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">Trent Dilfer</span></a><span><span style="color: #222222;"> hire was </span><a href="https://247sports.com/longformarticle/trent-dilfer-becoming-uab-football-coach-registers-mixed-media-reaction-to-ex-nfl-qb-landing-college-job-199124927/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">widely mocked</span></a><span style="color: #222222;">, but fourth down conversions and red zone success can shift in the blink of an eye. I wouldn't be shocked if UAB returned to the postseason and contended for the AAC crown next season. </span></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>The Worst Unbeatens</b></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Ugliest supermodel, poorest billionaire, flabbiest bodybuilder. These are pejoratives most people would happily embrace. When humans developed numbers to classify and group things, the natural consequence was that someone or something would inevitably be the worst of that group. And in 2023, the Tulane Green Wave became the worst college football team to finish unbeaten in conference play (since 2005 using by my preferred YPP metric among teams that played a full conference schedule). It doesn't sound quite as impressive with all those caveats, but believe me, it is. For your viewing and reminiscing pleasure, the ten worst teams by YPP to finish unbeaten in conference play since 2005. </span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVWJjQOPZYq2k1IN7YvtOAQEiJo0z44wm7dBvxbbRFdmV7IM2a_jzJwaNeHBPtA6oPWvoCWm6mH7ZY1-BOSXoORWsFDpt5NZ7YZNwwXaDb9Q7ke736gCLS7ih08BbrTj2rbCbniOO3PkfzlQEhdhRCQwSBf45QxFlUXd2OeroarcYXoA_RiNAY/s560/Image%2012-19-23%20at%204.15%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="560" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVWJjQOPZYq2k1IN7YvtOAQEiJo0z44wm7dBvxbbRFdmV7IM2a_jzJwaNeHBPtA6oPWvoCWm6mH7ZY1-BOSXoORWsFDpt5NZ7YZNwwXaDb9Q7ke736gCLS7ih08BbrTj2rbCbniOO3PkfzlQEhdhRCQwSBf45QxFlUXd2OeroarcYXoA_RiNAY/w320-h286/Image%2012-19-23%20at%204.15%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="color: #222222;">No team will probably ever top </span><a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/southern-california/2020.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">Southern Cal's</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> shortened 2020 unbeaten run. The Trojans played just five league games as the Pac-12 </span><a href="https://pac-12.com/article/2020/08/11/pac-12-conference-postpones-all-sport-competitions-through-end-calendar-year" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">initially canceled their football season</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> before reversing course and playing an </span><a href="https://pac-12.com/article/2020/10/03/pac-12-announces-2020-football-schedule" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">abbreviated schedule</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> beginning in November. </span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Nine of these unbeaten teams played in conference title games, and despite their middling YPP numbers, they performed quite admirably, especially when they did not face off against another unbeaten (Tulane and Kent State faced off against unbeaten SMU and Northern Illinois teams respectively). </span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Collectively, the nine teams were 5-4 straight up in their respective conference title games and 6-2-1 ATS. When not facing another unbeaten, they were 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS. </span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Tulane may have failed in their effort to capture a second consecutive league title and they were not as good as their unbeaten record might otherwise indicate. However, winning all your games in league play, no matter the competition, is something to celebrate. </span></span></div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-13277098370715493022024-01-04T03:13:00.000-08:002024-01-04T03:13:31.975-08:00Strangers in the Field Part VIII: How'd We Do?Another football season has come and (almost gone). But our bets have all been finalized. Unfortunately, there is nothing to sweat in the NFL in Week 18. Let's take a look back and see how the predictions from our <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/08/strangers-in-field-viii.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Vegas trip</span></a> went. <div><br /></div><div><b>Games of the Year</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsENSpHgm1OzzUEDJBG2EWvYku8s9BvFva_ZY-fvwntoEUadMV0Dyg6hMHYvE0_xMNeZRigEIVRooZXH_PAyv2LKFnJYKY8ObHS1hrmTsColXM8c-rM2VSO-cvil-jM_bfzCbffmVssHH-IuhYkAAGXBrdDdU8xoa9wOiB01nhn1StfxQaNPDP/s321/cfb3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="321" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsENSpHgm1OzzUEDJBG2EWvYku8s9BvFva_ZY-fvwntoEUadMV0Dyg6hMHYvE0_xMNeZRigEIVRooZXH_PAyv2LKFnJYKY8ObHS1hrmTsColXM8c-rM2VSO-cvil-jM_bfzCbffmVssHH-IuhYkAAGXBrdDdU8xoa9wOiB01nhn1StfxQaNPDP/s320/cfb3.png" width="320" /></a></div>The first two games were over before kickoff. We nailed the third and some shenanigans on an extra point costs us the fourth game. <div><br /></div><div><b>College Football Win Totals</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR-mOXq_8XrxXFIZREByipprnYYsz-UReIgrsEjaXPgXIe7NNi9UsWaSj-59yLwxknuE53Oo_nFFhRVYIsi3exHBavTYfIWWIZP5ARzDWeIu9u2WNUCzM7wLvbzDSzPkXsqORn0x14L26srNfhGepbSxvl9HXbT0fhO9JSuHtIr2uVluAleLJw/s583/cfb1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="321" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR-mOXq_8XrxXFIZREByipprnYYsz-UReIgrsEjaXPgXIe7NNi9UsWaSj-59yLwxknuE53Oo_nFFhRVYIsi3exHBavTYfIWWIZP5ARzDWeIu9u2WNUCzM7wLvbzDSzPkXsqORn0x14L26srNfhGepbSxvl9HXbT0fhO9JSuHtIr2uVluAleLJw/w220-h400/cfb1.png" width="220" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwc9u89hOhUHbCP-GZyiGeMso4g4Ma0IIm1dWEcTq247bzFGMBv9BA5E932P0gV9Di1_R-bVRrgfcKpf_x47e6TzDUUanRFODsXjaMxT9ZdyMfIjh1ET2hYv2cNAHGQ-rg0gBtFVNDvO2bZUGuIhyphenhyphenB-ttehSOceE_FNh7F6udsIw4HresZYmDm/s556/cfb2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="321" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwc9u89hOhUHbCP-GZyiGeMso4g4Ma0IIm1dWEcTq247bzFGMBv9BA5E932P0gV9Di1_R-bVRrgfcKpf_x47e6TzDUUanRFODsXjaMxT9ZdyMfIjh1ET2hYv2cNAHGQ-rg0gBtFVNDvO2bZUGuIhyphenhyphenB-ttehSOceE_FNh7F6udsIw4HresZYmDm/w231-h400/cfb2.png" width="231" /></a></div>Not too shabby. Nailed almost 60% of 39 total wagers. <div><br /></div><div><b>NFL Win Totals</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghAkO6EGP6lblxAdeU7-oQfios_pA5Yqls2WZzxcqCvtIhPv6iflWcr_3vdkp1wGk_F5RQ7VFZQ53KCQ2Tn5Jkdf99EYi2MfM1g0f1Sa6Pb98kZ6Uyg_JlS4JtYu7YOzQ4JD26KZpNbwsQbAnSz-9tbwuo7rw_C2ko6zCQymz7k7iBuYFPEeoF/s321/cfb4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="321" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghAkO6EGP6lblxAdeU7-oQfios_pA5Yqls2WZzxcqCvtIhPv6iflWcr_3vdkp1wGk_F5RQ7VFZQ53KCQ2Tn5Jkdf99EYi2MfM1g0f1Sa6Pb98kZ6Uyg_JlS4JtYu7YOzQ4JD26KZpNbwsQbAnSz-9tbwuo7rw_C2ko6zCQymz7k7iBuYFPEeoF/s320/cfb4.png" width="320" /></a></div>We swept our NFL plays. The Panthers and Rams were easy winners (somehow the Panthers had a higher preseason win total than the Rams), the Falcons was a toss up that went our way, and the Vikings bet won thanks to all their injuries. However, after all the injuries to the Ravens that went against us in 2021, I will not be apologizing for any injury good fortune the fates happen to throw my way. <div><br /></div><div><b>Miscellaneous</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNRlsdDgGTh4_OVTYUB4k-9Qgy3n0KV5qv2cxiK23EH5sSBcTLDwGpqzTxp-b2ngPa15iPf6gj8CCxN6mInqF0zpnVeHleNla5d00fzek2-gtTkAIEXNiksTUSqL48pkKOaEU7eHZh-kAF3AsMdarCGgOzfcItvKJu2l8hW-LrOKcP5Byb_q2a/s383/cfb5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="333" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNRlsdDgGTh4_OVTYUB4k-9Qgy3n0KV5qv2cxiK23EH5sSBcTLDwGpqzTxp-b2ngPa15iPf6gj8CCxN6mInqF0zpnVeHleNla5d00fzek2-gtTkAIEXNiksTUSqL48pkKOaEU7eHZh-kAF3AsMdarCGgOzfcItvKJu2l8hW-LrOKcP5Byb_q2a/s320/cfb5.png" width="278" /></a></div>The conference title bets were never close to coming to fruition although Memphis was in contention in the AAC until the penultimate regular season game. Tampa Bay and Texas went into slumps as soon as I made these bets. The Rangers did have a two game lead in the division with four to play, but dropped three of their final four games to give the division to the Astros. Of course, they naturally went 13-4 once the playoffs started and won the World Series. Not that I'm bitter. And we got three of five games right on the parlay, but that gets us nothing. <div><br /></div><div><b>Money Wagered</b>: $2345</div><div><b>Money Won</b>: $2494.80</div><div><b>ROI</b>: 6.39%</div><div><br /></div><div>We had our third consecutive winning season and while the ROI is not nearly as large as <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/01/strangers-in-field-part-vii-howd-we-do.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">last year's</span></a> (nearly 22%), we'll take it and go back to the lab so we can do it again next year. </div><div><br /></div><div>Next Thursday we begin our offseason recaps with the AAC. See you then!</div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-71131929247174926462023-12-14T03:07:00.000-08:002023-12-22T04:24:04.617-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Bowl Season<div>We definitely did not perform well enough to qualify for a bowl this season, but I did get pretty good grades in college so I guess we qualified based on APR. Anyway, here are seven bowl picks. Hopefully they can be a little better than the picks we made during the regular season.</div><div><br /></div>Last Week: 1-2<div>Overall: 42-51-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx7hCWEGKo8dLbFXQKHko4U7J7J6xR70RnRZ2nhzCl8KFY6ANpo24WQhE5TexZ6Hhlc0Izrbm6a26GznKZF7QduHb2dKlc856jLkqNDgK-isl1Grs8q1Fk-F-XP0_qGalvxAoqHpYKzOIT2_mCCPaJ70yauVIY9DBuXA2H9U6WygxuYrSRJNAB/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx7hCWEGKo8dLbFXQKHko4U7J7J6xR70RnRZ2nhzCl8KFY6ANpo24WQhE5TexZ6Hhlc0Izrbm6a26GznKZF7QduHb2dKlc856jLkqNDgK-isl1Grs8q1Fk-F-XP0_qGalvxAoqHpYKzOIT2_mCCPaJ70yauVIY9DBuXA2H9U6WygxuYrSRJNAB/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div>New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, Louisiana</div><div>Louisiana-Lafayette +2.5 Jacksonville State</div><div>Thanks to the general mediocrity in college football this season, Jacksonville State will be playing in their first bowl game in school history in their first season as an FBS program. The Gamecocks won eight games under Rich Rodriguez, but they did it in an unexpected way. The Gamecocks played fast, ranking ninth in the nation in plays per game (74), but they were not overly efficient. In league play, the Gamecocks ranked seventh of nine teams in Conference USA in yards per play, ahead of another FBS neophyte (Sam Houston State) and Florida International. The running game was strong (and high volume), but Gamecock quarterbacks combined to complete just over half their passes. Instead, the Gamecocks won with an aggressive, play-making defense. They allowed just over five yards per play in conference action (5.01), ranking first in Conference USA. They averaged three sacks per game (tenth nationally) and over seven tackles per loss per game (seventeenth nationally) while forcing 25 turnovers (third nationally). Can the Ragin' Cajuns do enough to protect their quarterback and avoid disastrous turnovers to win this game? Louisiana-Lafayette was mediocre in sacks allowed, ranking 57th nationally, but it would be a fool's errand to predict the turnover margin for an individual game (the Ragin' Cajuns were -3 in the regular season). The reason I am backing Louisiana-Lafayette is because of schedule strength and location. Louisiana-Lafayette did not face an arduous schedule, but Jacksonville State had a schedule tailor made for easing into FBS action. Including Jacksonville State, Conference USA had just four bowl eligible teams and the Gamecocks beat up on the dregs of the league in getting to eight victories. In non-conference play, they beat an FCS team (East Tennessee State) and a bad MAC team (Eastern Michigan) while losing to a mediocre Sun Belt team (Coastal Carolina) and losing to, but acquitting themselves well against a mediocre SEC team (South Carolina). Their best win is a three-point home victory against Western Kentucky. Their best road win is either Sam Houston State or Middle Tennessee State. Louisiana-Lafayette is better than both those teams and this game is practically on the road. Louisiana-Lafayette has played in the New Orleans Bowl on six previous occasions (all since 2011) and they are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the game. I expect a spirited crowd to help lead the Ragin' Cajuns to an upset win. </div><div><br /></div><div>Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, Florida</div><div>South Florida +3 Syracuse</div><div>Often times, bowl results come down to motivation, and I think its easy to see which teams comes into this game with more motivation. After beginning the 2018 season 7-0, the bottom fell out of the South Florida program. The Bulls lost their final six games of 2018 (with each loss coming by double digits) and then proceeded to win just four FBS games between 2018 and 2022 (8-37 overall record). Expectations were not high heading into 2023 with new head coach Alex Golesh and you probably remember the Bulls for a game they did not even win back in September. South Florida hosted Alabama back in Week 3 and while the Bulls were never really a threat to win the game, they hung around and lost just 17-3. That game might give you the false impression that South Florida plays an old-school defensive first style with a limited offense. That could not be further from the truth. In AAC play, South Florida ranked fifth in yards per play as they put up more than thirty points in five of their eight conference games. However, the Bulls needed a win in their regular season finale to clinch a bowl bid because of their defense. They played well against a struggling (at the time) Alabama offense, but once league play started, they ranked dead last in the AAC in yards allowed per play. They allowed at least thirty points in five of their eight league games and finished about how you might expect a team that is very good on one side of the ball and very bad on the other (4-4 in the AAC). But this is their first bowl game in five years and the Bulls will be facing a team that is present in body, but absent in spirit. Syracuse began the season 4-0 against a less than arduous schedule, but once ACC play began, the Orange rotted. Syracuse lost their first five league games by nearly 25 points per game and while they rebounded to win two of their final three (against the dregs of the league), that skid and the general malaise surrounding the program cost Dino Babers his job. The Orange head to this bowl game (where they are laying points may I remind you) with units that ranked thirteenth and eleventh in the ACC in yards per play on offense and defense respectively. South Florida is bad on one side of the ball, but I expect them to be highly motivated, whereas Syracuse is bad on both sides of the ball and seems to be anxious to get this season over with. Take the Bulls to get the win in their home state. </div><div><br /></div><div>Camelia Bowl @ Montgomery, Alabama</div><div>Northern Illinois +1 Arkansas State</div><div>Both teams in this bowl game rebounded from rough starts. Arkansas State began the year by getting outscored 110-3 by Oklahoma and Memphis. At that point, the Red Wolves were 5-21 under head coach Butch Jones and appeared to be heading for a one or two win season. One quarterback change later and the Red Wolves won six of their final ten games to get back to a bowl for the first time since 2019 (when they also played in the Camelia Bowl). Northern Illinois actually won their opener at Boston College, but lost their next four. Included in that quartet was a home loss to an FCS team. The Huskies won five of their final seven games and are back in a bowl for the second time in three seasons. Northern Illinois has been a great underdog under head coach Thomas Hammock, posting a 19-11 ATS record in the role in his five seasons. They utilize excellent underdog strategies by running the ball to milk the clock and going for it often on fourth down to maximize variance and scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, this is just the fifth time Arkansas State has entered as a favorite against an FBS opponent under Butch Jones. Despite winning five games against FBS opponents this season, four of those victories came as an underdog. The market has probably tilted too much toward Arkansas State. In terms of per play margin, Northern Illinois was the second best team in the MAC (behind Toledo), while Arkansas State was outgained by their Sun Belt opponents on a per play basis. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Huskies to win their first bowl game since 2011. </div><div><br /></div><div>Pop-Tarts Bowl @ Orlando, Florida</div><div>NC State +3 Kansas State</div><div>Dave Doeren has quietly put together a great run at NC State. In the last ten seasons, the Wolfpack had one down year (2019) when they went 1-7 in ACC play and things looked bleak in Raleigh. In the other nine seasons, the Wolfpack have won at least eight games seven times and beaten their archrivals in Chapel Hill seven times, including four times as an underdog. A victory here would give the Wolfpack ten wins for the first time since 2002 and give them their third ranked finish under Doeren. All that stands between them and the second best season of this century is a Kansas State team that may be overvalued by the market for a change. After posting a 10-3 ATS mark the previous two seasons as a favorite, the Wildcats were just 5-4 as a favorite this season and lost three of those games outright. In fact, if you look at Kansas State's schedule, there is not a whole lot of heft on it. The Wildcats did dominate a good Group of Five team (Troy) early in the season, but Kansas was the only other team they beat that finished with a winning record. The Wildcats were also slightly underwater in terms of yards per play in Big 12 action (-.09 per play) despite posting a 6-3 league record. NC State has a sneaky good defense, ranking fourth in the ACC in yards allowed per play. I think they will shut down the Kansas State run game and keep this a low scoring affair. Take the 'Pack and the points. </div><div><br /></div><div>Music City Bowl @ Nashville, Tennessee</div><div>Maryland +2.5 Auburn</div><div>I can admit when I'm wrong and I think I whiffed on my take regarding the Mike Locksley hire. This is Maryland's third consecutive bowl trip under Locksley, a not insignificant accomplishment considering they reside (until next year) in the same division as Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. In fact, over the past three seasons, Maryland is 22-5 against unranked teams. Of course, they are 0-11 against ranked opponents, so while they are clearly a solid program, they are a notch below the elite of college football. And speaking of not being elite, allow me to introduce you to Auburn. The Tigers finished bowl eligible in Hugh Freeze's first season in charge, but of their six regular season wins, five came against either FCS teams or FBS teams that finished with a losing record. The only FBS team they beat that did not finish with a losing record was Cal which finished 6-6. I think Auburn is getting an artificial boost thanks to playing in the SEC and nearly beating Alabama in the Iron bowl a few weeks ago. This game will be played in SEC country, but not in Jordan Hare. Maryland is the better team and should be favored. </div><div><br /></div><div>Arizona Bowl @ Tucson, Arizona</div><div>Wyoming -3 Toledo</div><div>This is the end of the line for Craig Bohl at Wyoming. The former North Dakota State head coach has been in Laramie for ten years. While the Cowboys never won a conference title under his watch, they did play for the Mountain West championship in 2016 and including this year, were bowl eligible in the past seven non-shortened seasons. Bohl consistently put solid to good Group of Five defenses on the field and played to that strength by running the hell out of the football. This season, Wyoming opened the year with an upset of Texas Tech on their home field and were 5-1 in mid-October. They lost back to back games to Air Force and Boise State to fall out of the conference race, but won three of their last four to get to eight regular season wins for the first time since 2016. They will face the MAC Championship Game loser for the third consecutive time in a bowl. The Cowboys dominated Kent State in 2021 and lost a tight game to Ohio in 2022. Toledo bookended their season with losses, first to Illinois in the opener and then to Miami in the MAC Championship Game. In between, they were the best team in the MAC, becoming the first MAC school to finish 8-0 in league play since Western Michigan in 2016. Special teams failures cost them against Miami and I think motivation will be an issue for the Rockets. Two weeks ago, they were ranked in the top 25 and a sizable favorite in their conference title game. Now, their quarterback is in the transfer portal and they are facing a team from a better league looking to send their head coach out with a win. Take the Cowboys to cover this small number. </div><div><br /></div><div>Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, California</div><div>Alabama +1.5 Michigan</div><div>I don't think Alabama deserved their spot in the College Football Playoff over Florida State. In the previous nine iterations of the invitational, the committee has tended to defer to 'most deserving' instead of best (whatever your preferred predictive rating system is). I think they erred in deviating from the script this season, but at the same time, I think Alabama has a great shot at putting another trophy in the case. This is not close to Saban's best team at Alabama, it may not even be top six, but the Tide have improved throughout the year and feature a dangerous if unpolished quarterback. Jalen Milroe is a bomb thrower. He averaged nearly sixteen yards per completion this season. By comparison, Bryce Young averaged 13.3 yards per completion in his Heisman winning campaign of 2021. The defense, while not world devouring like some previous units, was good enough (third in SEC play in yards allowed per play). The Crimson Tide will face a Michigan team that has not looked great in their past three games. Maryland played Michigan even statistically in a close loss and the Buckeyes actually outgained the Wolverines, but were done in by two Kyle McCord interceptions. The Wolverines blanked Iowa in the Big 10 Championship Game, but they mustered just 213 total yards and averaged 3.33 yards per play. Turnovers have buoyed the Wolverines in those three games (+7 margin), but the fickle bounces of the football can reverse course without warning. The Wolverines passing attack is not up to snuff to beat Alabama. The Wolverines have thrown just one touchdown pass in their past five games. You rarely find Alabama catching points under Nick Saban, so savor these opportunities and back the Tide. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-73878600116583502762023-11-30T14:47:00.000-08:002023-11-30T14:47:36.920-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IV<p>Since there are only ten games on the board this week, there shall only be three picks. That means I will hopefully not miss as many games as I have most weeks. The season is almost mercifully over. </p><div style="text-align: left;">Last Week: 2- 5</div><div style="text-align: left;">Overall: 41-49-1</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihn8k8GA35W7YcVl-3_jQGxbYI8sb_cp5nwl-kBvgB06SxZqnH9st6SuAZAwUdznK297bxclkQgoXdkEXiXQ_j2JjGlzBQn3m7pfJw0rb0GlI2yMm6PCaoa__-M2pUr9N_FKCniAqK6PcWzrOtuyIIdhZlteydasvuj2OjJmrOy0zNfJYeF0CD/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihn8k8GA35W7YcVl-3_jQGxbYI8sb_cp5nwl-kBvgB06SxZqnH9st6SuAZAwUdznK297bxclkQgoXdkEXiXQ_j2JjGlzBQn3m7pfJw0rb0GlI2yMm6PCaoa__-M2pUr9N_FKCniAqK6PcWzrOtuyIIdhZlteydasvuj2OjJmrOy0zNfJYeF0CD/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>UNLV</b> +2 Boise State</div><div style="text-align: left;">UNLV is in an interesting position, having backed into the Mountain West Championship Game. The Rebels <a href="https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2023/11/25/spartans-top-unlv-for-sixth-straight-win-to-close-out-regular-season" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f1c232;">lost last week</span></a> to the hottest Mountain West team (San Jose State), to throw the league into a three-way tie. The <a href="https://www.bronconationnews.com/boise-state-prevails-in-computer-tiebreaker-advances-to-mountain-west-title-game-at-unlv/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">computers decreed</span></a> the Rebels and Broncos the two best teams and here we are. This is UNLV's first appearance in a conference title game and arguably the biggest game in school history (other contender is their <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unlv/unlv-football/sam-boyd-stadium-memory-randall-cunninghams-number-retired-in-1984-1855957/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">regular season finale in 1984</span></a> when they hosted tenth ranked SMU). Meanwhile, this marks Boise State's second straight trip the Mountain West Championship Game (and sixth in seven seasons). However, the Broncos trip here was perhaps more bumpy. They dropped three of four non-conference games and were just 4-5 overall after a loss to Fresno State a month ago. They <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38881399/sources-boise-state-fire-football-coach-andy-avalos" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">fired</span></a> head coach Andy Avalos after beating New Mexico the following week and closed the season with two more victories to clinch a spot in the title game. The Broncos have not fared well away from the Smurf Turf this season, posting a 2-4 straight up record and a 1-4-1 ATS record. Meanwhile, UNLV has only lost once this season in Las Vegas. This game is also part of a trend in conference title games where it has <a href="http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2021/04/2020-yards-per-play-mac.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">been beneficial</span></a> to fade road favorites. In Group of Five/non-BCS conference title games, road favorites are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 ATS. Comparatively, home favorites have done great straight up (29-8) and have been a coin flip against the spread (18-17-2). I like the Rebels to continue that trend at home and claim their first conference title since 1984. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Appalachian State +6 <b>Troy</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Both Sun Belt Championship Game participants have rebounded from rough starts. Troy began the year 1-2, much like they started in 2022, before reeling off nine consecutive wins (with seven coming by double digits) to easily wrap up the Sun Belt West for a second straight season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State began the year 3-4, but won their last five games (with four coming by double digits) to claim the Sun Belt East for the second time in three seasons (on a <a href="https://www.pilotonline.com/2023/10/19/unbeaten-jmu-leads-the-sun-belt-but-despite-pleas-ncaa-rules-keep-dukes-from-a-bowl-conference-title-game/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">technicality</span></a>). For Appalachian State, the turnaround was due to their defense. In their first three Sun Belt games, the Mountaineers allowed 7.09 yards per play and 31.7 points per game. Over their final five conference games, the Mountaineers allowed 5.10 yards per play and 22.2 points per game. The offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, has been fantastic all season, and it will probably need to be again as it goes against one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. I think the Mountaineers have a shot to pull the upset since they faced a tougher schedule residing in the Sun Belt East. In addition, the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog under head coach Shawn Clark and have not lost a game by more than a touchdown in more than a calendar year. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Florida State -2.5 Louisville @ Charlotte</div><div style="text-align: left;">While the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jordan-travis-quarterback-florida-state-season-ending-injury-a71d0a1981a3410e0ac897b51b0e30a6" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">injury to Jordan Travis</span></a> has dealt a major blow to Florida State's national title hopes, I think it has devalued them enough to make them a great play in this spot. A few years ago, I <a href="http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2021/02/2020-adjusted-pythagorean-record-acc.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">wrote about</span></a> how preseason top ten teams tend to dominate conference title games against teams that began the season unranked. Those preseason top ten teams have gone 28-2 straight up in conference title games and have outscored their opponents by nearly twenty points per game. Louisville is a nice story, but their fantastic record is more a product of their schedule than elite play. The Seminoles have had a full game (in a hostile environment) to gameplan around the loss of their star quarterback. I think they are able to win by at least a touchdown against a good, but not great Louisville team. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-38263888282187185972023-11-22T07:08:00.000-08:002023-11-22T07:08:41.029-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XIIITwo good weeks in a row and three out of four. The yearly numbers are not quite as bad and there is an outside shot we could get back to .500. Again, that's far from a successful season, but better than it looked a month ago. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 5-2</div><div>Overall: 39-44-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUkU7Ex9wMRZYzkQjRc6jS39uCBYM3Z5Zjym3cF86ps6VLttUF4Mvy96HZjn-_L9roV6noYamqoBZAmf7sGvA1v9J_wO5TCMcB_mzGI96Bab8dA1K_xy-amnaFkIUuxm4NE05jUeqW_xLfCDFcnzGi1m0I1mhgAkZVkOkc1TTU4V2yNRIZWqZV/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUkU7Ex9wMRZYzkQjRc6jS39uCBYM3Z5Zjym3cF86ps6VLttUF4Mvy96HZjn-_L9roV6noYamqoBZAmf7sGvA1v9J_wO5TCMcB_mzGI96Bab8dA1K_xy-amnaFkIUuxm4NE05jUeqW_xLfCDFcnzGi1m0I1mhgAkZVkOkc1TTU4V2yNRIZWqZV/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>UTSA +3.5 <b>Tulane</b></div><div>In a weird scheduling quirk, both of these teams are unbeaten in AAC play, yet neither has clinched a spot in the conference title game. The winner will obviously punch their ticket and the loser still has a snowball's chance (would need SMU to lose to Navy). Both the Roadrunners and Green Wave won their respective leagues last season, with UTSA beating North Texas in their final season in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/cusa/2022.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Conference USA</span></a> and Tulane knocking off UCF on their way to an eventual upset of Southern Cal in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cotton_Bowl_Classic_(January)" target="_blank"><span style="color: #6aa84f;">Cotton Bow</span>l</a>. UTSA dropped off everyone's radar when they began the season 1-3. <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35206047/record-setting-utsa-qb-frank-harris-return-7th-season" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Elderly</span></a> quarterback Frank Harris was dealing with some injury issues, but once conference play began, the team rounded into form. All but one of their league wins has come by double digits. Meanwhile, Tulane has the better overall record, but they have been far from dominant. Four of their league victories have come by a touchdown or less. Tulane and UTSA have faced five common league opponents. Tulane has outscored those five opponents by 40 total points. UTSA has outscored those same opponents by 89 total points. Despite the venue, I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Roadrunners to win a third consecutive league title. </div><div><br /></div><div>Oregon State +13.5 <b>Oregon</b></div><div>Before I dive into some reasons for backing the Beavers in this spot, I want to breakdown why I think the line itself is wrong. Indulge me. Last week, Oregon State was a slight home favorite against Washington. Once we factor in homefield advantage, that would mean the betting market views Washington and Oregon State as roughly equals on a neutral field. We'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt since they are unbeaten and Oregon State has a great homefield advantage and say they are two points better than Oregon State in the betting market. Six weeks ago, Washington and Oregon played a classic in Seattle with the <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/oregon-washington-live-score-highlights-college-football/bc5f99de762af1700bfb56a3" target="_blank"><span style="color: #741b47;">Huskies winning 36-33</span></a>. Washington was a slight favorite in that game, implying the betting market viewed Washington and Oregon as equals. If Washington and Oregon were roughly equals in the betting market and Washington was rated slightly higher than Oregon State, how is Oregon (with homefield advantage) rated nearly two touchdowns ahead of Oregon State? Using basic logic, I think there is value in this number. And that is before you consider the fact that this is a rivalry game (perhaps the <a href="https://duckswire.usatoday.com/2023/08/04/oregon-vs-oregon-state-rivalry-to-remain-despite-ducks-move-to-big-ten/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">last iteration</span></a> for some time) and Oregon State's great run as an underdog under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Smith_(American_football_coach)" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">Jonathan Smith</span></a>. Under Smith, the Beavers are 13-6 ATS (10-3 since 2019) as a road underdog and 8-4 ATS (6-1 since 2019) as a double digit road underdog. Oregon blasted the Beavers by 40 in Smith's first season (2018), but since then the games have been decided by an average of seven and a half points. Despite the loss to Washington last week, I expect Oregon State to be motivated. They can even keep the Ducks out of the Pac-12 Championship Game if they win and Arizona wins their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_Cup_Series" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Territorial Cup</span></a> clash with Arizona State. This is too many points, so take the Beavers to get a dam cover. </div><div><br /></div><div>Ohio State +3.5 <b>Michigan</b></div><div>This is the first time Ohio State has been an underdog in the regular season since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Day_(American_football)" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Ryan Day</span></a> became head coach. The Buckeyes have been underdogs on four occasions in the College Football Playoff, posting a 2-2 ATS mark. With apologies to Iowa, this has the feel of a College Football Play-In Game, with the winner getting in and the loser needing some chaos to sneak in. A similar scenario presented itself last season with both teams also entering with unbeaten records. Michigan won, but Ohio State managed to get in after Utah blasted Southern Cal in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That Ohio State team was better offensively with quarterback and future NFL star <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StroCJ00.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">CJ Stroud</span></a> leading the attack. The defense was a little leaky and that manifested itself in this game as the Wolverines gained over 250 yards on the ground and averaged over seven yards per carry. The script has been flipped this season. Ohio State's offense is not nearly as explosive despite the presence of <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marvin-harrison-jr-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Marvin Harrison Jr</span></a>. But the defense is allowing under ten points per game. No team has scored more than 17 points against that unit. Interestingly, both defenses in this game had their worst point total showing against Maryland. The Terps scored 17 against Ohio State and 24 against Michigan last week. Michigan has the better defense by points per game, but Ohio State has faced a more difficult schedule, with Notre Dame serving as a great out of conference data point (something Michigan does not have). And while Ohio State's quarterback (Kyle McCord) was thought to be the weak link a few weeks ago, Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has looked mortal the past two weeks against Penn State and Maryland. I think the last two weeks have sort of exposed the Wolverines. They are still one of the best teams in college football, but I think Ohio State is better, so I will take the points. </div><div><br /></div><div>Pittsburgh +6 <b>Duke</b></div><div>Were I a Pitt fan, and believe me, I have enough problems as it is, I would be questioning where this new quarterback has been all season. Nate Yarnell got the start against Boston College and played well. Granted, it was at home and the Eagles have arguably the worst defense in the ACC, but his numbers were fantastic compared to the other two scrubs the Panthers have run out there this season. Phil Jurkovec and Christian Veilleux combined to complete barely half their passes this season. That might be acceptable for a triple option team or an NFL quarterback in the 1970's, but its downright horrible in 2023. Only four teams have a worse completion percentage than the Panthers. Yarnell's play gives the Panthers hope for the future and makes them an ideal team to take catching a touchdown against a team that appears to have run out of steam. Duke lost quarterback Riley Leonard to a <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38534407/duke-quarterback-riley-leonard-injured-loss-notre-dame" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">gruesome injury</span></a> in their fifth game against Notre Dame. Leonard missed just one game, but was ineffective upon his return and has not played in a month. His backups have not inspired much confidence either. Since Leonard's injury, the Blue Devils have lost four of six games, and outside of their overtime tilt with North Carolina, have averaged under twenty points per game. As I repeat often around these parts, its hard to cover when you can't score. Finally, one additional reason to back Pitt is head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Narduzzi" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Pat Narduzzi's</span></a> success against the Blue Devils. Under Narduzzi, the Panthers are 7-0 against Duke with four of the wins coming in Durham and three of those road victories coming as an underdog. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Old Dominion</b> -3 Georgia State</div><div>I faded Georgia State a few weeks ago when they were hosting Appalachian State because it appeared they were headed in the wrong direction. The Panthers began the season 6-1, but have lost four in a row and are in danger of ending the regular season on a five-game skid. What has happened? The schedule has toughened up. Georgia State began the season with games against Rhode Island (FCS), Connecticut, and Charlotte. Connecticut is 2-9 with one victory against an FBS opponent and Charlotte is 3-8 with two wins against FBS teams. In Sun Belt play, two of their first four games were against Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette, two teams that are 5-6 heading into the final week of the season. They did beat Coastal Carolina on the road, but the Chanticleers are not what they were under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamey_Chadwell" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Jamey Chadwell</span></a>. Since beating Louisiana-Lafayette to get to 6-1, the Panthers have faced two of the best teams in the Sun Belt (Appalachian State and James Madison), a non-conference game against LSU, and their in-state rival Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, in Norfolk, Old Dominion is looking to double last season's win total and get to a second bowl game in three seasons under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricky_Rahne" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Ricky Rahne</span></a>. The Monarchs have been nothing if not exciting in 2023. Nine of their eleven games have been decided by a touchdown or less. That includes games against an awesome James Madison, an ACC team (Wake Forest), and something called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Texas_A%26M%E2%80%93Commerce_Lions_football_team" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Texas A&M Commerce</span></a>. In Sun Belt play, Old Dominion has outgained their opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.59) while Georgia State has been outgained by more than a yard per play against Sun Belt foes (-1.20). That alone makes Old Dominion the play to cover this small number and get to bowl eligibility. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Auburn</b> +14.5 Alabama</div><div>When a team is embarrassed like Auburn was last week in an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/auburn-tigers-new-mexico-state-fe107113ce2553da06eae511ba68b6a7" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">humbling home loss</span></a> to New Mexico State, you have to expect them to bounce back the next week. Prior to that perplexing loss to the Aggies, Auburn had won three in a row, with each victory come against an SEC opponent. While Auburn could easily have overlooked New Mexico State last week with Alabama on deck, the shoe is on the other foot this week. Alabama has a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game next week and while <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Saban" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Nick Saban</span></a> will undoubtedly try to keep them focused on the task at hand, I would not be surprised if they started slow. During his historic run in Tuscaloosa, Saban has had a tough time when his teams have traveled to<span style="color: #2b00fe;"> <a href="https://auburntigers.com/facilities/jordan-hare-stadium/11" target="_blank">Jordan-Hare Stadium</a></span>. Alabama is just 4-4 straight up in Jordan-Hare despite entering as favorites seven times. Alabama is just 2-6 ATS in those eight games, covering with one of the best defenses of the modern era in 2011 and again in 2015 against a limited Auburn offense. This Auburn offense is similarly limited, but Alabama, while a championship contender, is not up to the standards of Saban's previous world-devouring squads. In addition, Auburn head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Freeze" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Hugh Freeze</span></a> had decent success against Saban when he was at Ole Miss. In five meetings with Alabama, the Rebels were 2-3 straight up and 4-1 ATS. Freeze has also been great as a home underdog in all of his previous stops (Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty), posting a 10-5 ATS mark, including 4-2 as a double digit home underdog. I wouldn't be shocked if Auburn was tied or leading at the half before Alabama was able to put them away by about a touchdown or so. </div><div><br /></div><div>Iowa State +10 <b>Kansas State</b></div><div>Are you ready for <a href="https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2020/11/19/farmageddon-an-underrated-history/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Farmageddon</span></a>? While these teams are not each other's primary rival (that would be the in-state Hawkeyes and Jayhawks respectively), this is still a fun underrated matchup. Kansas State is in an unusual role in this spot as they are laying double-digits against the Cyclones for the first time since 2014. Usually, the Wildcats are underrated by the betting market, but I think they are a little overvalued in this spot. The Wildcats are the reigning Big 12 champions, but this team is not quite up to the standards of last year's championship squad. That's understandable as Kansas State is a developmental program and does not feature a revolving door of five stars. Kansas State's biggest strength is running the football, which is something Iowa State should be able to hold in check. The Cyclones also have the pass offense to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that has put up solid overall numbers, but has really feasted on bad offenses and backup quarterbacks. Missouri, UCF, Texas, and Kansas all put up at least 27 points against this defense. Iowa State should come close to that number and I think they can hold the Wildcats to the low thirties. This one has close game written all over it. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-63721138568082420192023-11-16T03:26:00.000-08:002023-11-16T03:26:28.086-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XIIWe had our best week of the season. The overall numbers are still quite bad, but we'll see if we can close strong. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 6-1</div><div>Overall: 34-42-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2VQBvT9QlyIHMDzMnYGhFKT_6DnBVEYRamBF7sB3Bm6nT8ms_QpQyCEZ_1ciIJwRPwuc4n3hIWI4QlxSkzw-aHTxKbDdXGLtsK2WSQ59ikpniF9KA-2KS72pdgg6AbQOJH4RLubq9XPrFA_pMt0k4rj_josesJ2txnvKzZw235K1cVrCirEnQ/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2VQBvT9QlyIHMDzMnYGhFKT_6DnBVEYRamBF7sB3Bm6nT8ms_QpQyCEZ_1ciIJwRPwuc4n3hIWI4QlxSkzw-aHTxKbDdXGLtsK2WSQ59ikpniF9KA-2KS72pdgg6AbQOJH4RLubq9XPrFA_pMt0k4rj_josesJ2txnvKzZw235K1cVrCirEnQ/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Appalachian State +10 <b>James Madison</b></div><div>After back-to-back losses dropped them to 3-4 overall, Appalachian State has won three in a row and the Mountaineers have an outside shot at getting to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The defensive issues that plagued them in their first eight games (allowed nearly 31 points per game) have dissipated somewhat. The Mountaineers have allowed just 23 points in their past two games; easy victories against Marshall and Georgia State. Now they travel to Harrisonburg (along with <a href="https://jmusports.com/news/2023/11/13/football-what-to-know-for-espns-college-gameday-at-jmu-2023.aspx" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4c1130;">College Game Day</span></a>) to face the unbeaten James Madison Dukes. The Dukes crept into the AP Poll last season after a 5-0 start, but their stay was brief as they were knocked off by Georgia Southern the very next week. Their stay has been a little longer this season, as they enter their fourth week as a ranked team. The Dukes have dominated their past two opponents, beating Georgia State and Connecticut by a combined score of 86-20. However, the Dukes have played their share of tight games this season. Five of their ten wins have come by one-score, including three by a field goal or less. While James Madison has been clutch in their brief run as an FBS program (7-1 record in one-score games), Appalachian State has struggled in close games under Shawn Clark. Clark took over the Mountaineer program before the 2020 season and in his nearly four years in charge, they are just 7-12 in one-score games. However, it should be noted the Mountaineers have only lost 17 total games under Clark, meaning they usually keep games close. In fact, nine of their past ten losses have been by one-score. That makes them an ideal team to back as an underdog, especially one catching double-digits. James Madison will be able to move the ball and score against this defense that is not up to previous standards in Boone. However, the Mountaineers have one of the best quarterback in the Sun Belt (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joey-aguilar-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Joey Aguilar</span></a>) and should be able to score enough to keep this one close. The Mountaineers have also done a great job at protecting Aguilar this season (just 13 sacks allowed) and should be able to neutralize one of James Madison's biggest strengths. The Dukes lead the nation with 43 sacks this season, but as I mentioned, the Mountaineers protect their quarterback well and James Madison will be without the services of <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jalen-green-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #a64d79;">Jalen Green</span></a>, who has 15.5 sacks on the season. I expect a tight game worthy of College Game Day on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Hawaii +13.5 <b>Wyoming</b></div><div>Wyoming's season started with such potential. The Cowboys <a href="https://gowyo.com/news/2023/9/3/football-wyoming-wins-heart-stopping-double-overtime-thriller-over-24-texas-tech.aspx" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">upset Texas Tech</span></a> in Laramie in their opener and won five of their first six games. They lost a tight game with Air Force, but had their bye after their battle with the Falcons. With just one conference loss, the Cowboys were contenders in the Mountain West. However, since returning from their bye, the Cowboys have dropped two of three and have struggled moving the ball. The Cowboys are averaging under 22 points per game in Mountain West play and have scored just 45 total points in the three games since their bye. The defense has also regressed. Boise State and UNLV torched their secondary (combined to average ten yards per pass) while Air Force and New Mexico shredded them on the ground (nearly 600 combined rushing yards). Needless to say, this is not the profile of a team you want to back laying double-digits. Hawaii has quietly won two in a row to move to 4-7 in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/timmy-chang-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">Timmy Chang's</span></a> second season in charge at his alma mater. These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions and while Wyoming should be favored, they should not be laying two touchdowns. Take the Warriors to keep this one close. </div><div><br /></div><div>North Texas -2.5 <b>Tulsa</b></div><div>A pair of 3-7 teams under first year coaches play their penultimate regular season game on Saturday. This is definitely not the biggest game in the mid-afternoon window, but it might be one of the most high scoring. North Texas averages just over 33 points per game on offense and allows nearly 38 per game on defense. The current over/under on this game is just 66, so betting on a shootout might be a good play as well. The Mean Green have lost four in a row to end their dreams of a winning season, but all four losses have come to the cream of the crop in the AAC. Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, and SMU are a combined 32-8 overall and an amazing 23-1 in AAC play! Plus, North Texas was competitive in three of the four games, losing to Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA each by one possession. Their most recent game against SMU was more of a struggle, but I think that has served to artificially lower the price of the Mean Green in this spot. Tulsa is also 3-7, but the Golden Hurricane have lost five in a row, and while two of those defeats came to SMU and Tulane, the other three were Florida Atlantic, Rice, and Charlotte. North Texas is the better team and is laying less than a field goal, so they are the play. </div><div><br /></div><div>Sam Houston State +13 <b>Western Kentucky</b></div><div>Despite what the betting market may believe, this is not the Western Kentucky team from 2021. That team featured an incredible Group of Five offense. Turnovers and close game variance are the only reasons they did not break through, win Conference USA, and potentially finish with a number beside their name in the AP Poll. To put that team's offensive numbers in the proper context, consider this: Western Kentucky faced ten FBS Group of Five teams (in other words, teams in Western Kentucky's weight class) in the regular season in 2021. They scored at least 30 points in all ten games. Here is how often they scored thirty or more against Group of Five opponents in the other four seasons <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Helton" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Tyson Helton</span></a> has been in charge.</div><div><b>2019</b>: two times in nine games</div><div><b>2020</b>: two times in nine games</div><div><b>2022</b>: six times in ten games</div><div><b>2023</b>: three times in eight games</div><div>Without <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/bailey-zappe-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Bailey Zappe</span></a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zach_Kittley" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">Zach Kittley</span></a>, the offense degraded in 2022 and the trend has continued in 2023. The Hilltoppers have failed to score 30 points in each of their past four games (1-3 record) and are going to end up throwing for about half as many touchdown passes as they did in 2021 (63). If the Hilltoppers struggle getting to 30, it stands to reason they will have a hard time covering this big number, even against an FBS neophyte. Sam Houston State has struggled in their first season as an FBS program, losing their first eight games before knocking off Kennesaw State two weeks ago. They followed that win up with a road win at Louisiana Tech and are looking to close their maiden voyage in FBS on a strong note. The Bearkats were terrible on offense in the early going, managing just ten points in their first three games. However, once conference play began, the offense, while still below average, has managed to score multiple touchdowns. The Bearkats have averaged just under 27 points per game in league play and have lost four conference games by a touchdown or less. Western Kentucky should not be laying this many points. Take the Bearkats and the points. </div><div><br /></div><div>New Mexico State +24 <b>Auburn</b></div><div>This is not a true <a href="https://www.bannersociety.com/2018/11/14/17932400/sec-cupcake-games-november" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">So Con Saturday</span></a> game, but spiritually, it fits the bill. Auburn preps for their Iron Bowl game with Alabama by facing a Conference USA squad that has not only clinched their second consecutive bowl game, but also an appearance in the Conference USA Championship Game. New Mexico State, under second year head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Kill" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Jerry Kill</span></a>, lost at home to Massachusetts to open the season and appeared poised for a step back after last season's Quick Lane Bowl victory. Since that loss, the Aggies have won eight of ten with diminutive quarterback <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/diego-pavia-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Diego Pavia</span></a> leading them in both passing and rushing. That rushing attack, for both teams, is why I like the big underdog in this spot. Neither team pass frequently, as both rank in the bottom thirty nationally in pass attempts. With both teams keeping the ball on the ground, the clock will run, possessions will be minimized, and Auburn will have a tougher time getting margin. And with Alabama up next, Auburn has no incentive to run up the score. I expected this spread to be under twenty points, so I will happily take 24. </div><div><br /></div><div>Old Dominion +6 <b>Georgia Southern</b></div><div>Georgia Southern is already bowl eligible for the second straight season under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clay_Helton" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Clay Helton</span></a>, but the Eagles have faded after a strong start. Georgia Southern began the year 4-1, with the only loss coming at Wisconsin when they outgained the Badgers, but turned the ball over six times. And while the Eagles are 3-3 in Sun Belt play, they are fortunate to have such a mediocre record. They have been outgained by those six league opponents by nearly one yard per play (-0.99). In all three of their conference victories, the Eagles returned an interception for a touchdown, helping them overcome situations where their opponents were more efficient on a play-by-play basis. Meanwhile, Old Dominion also sports an identical 3-3 league record, but the Monarchs have actually outgained their league opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.64). Old Dominion has been incredibly unfortunate in their fourth down conversion rate. The Monarchs have only converted one of eight fourth downs in Sun Belt play, while their opponents have converted nine of fifteen (60%). In addition, all of Old Dominion's conference games have been decided by a touchdown or less. I expect more of the same here. Georgia Southern should probably be favored, but the spread should be less than a field goal. Laying nearly a touchdown, even at home, is too much. </div><div><br /></div><div>Syracuse +6.5 <b>Georgia Tech</b></div><div>At this point, Georgia Tech is a pretty simple handicap under Brent Key. Back them as an underdog, and fade them as a favorite. As an underdog, either at home or away, Georgia Tech is 10-2 ATS under Key with eight outright victories! As a favorite (all of which have come at home), the Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS and have lost each game outright. Syracuse changed up their offense last week, eschewing the forward pass (nine passes for eight yards) and ran what amounts to a modified version of the single wing. That rushing attack would seem to match up perfectly with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets cannot stop the run, allowing 224 yards per game and 5.33 yards per carry on the season. Fade the Yellow Jackets yet again as a favorite. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-13906879614586292152023-11-09T03:08:00.003-08:002023-11-09T03:08:54.732-08:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XI<div>Whatever optimism we built up the week prior dissipated last week. Oh well. There's always next year. </div><div><br /></div>Last Week: 2-5<div>Overall: 28-41-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqeIcP6GMBgqn6-7aECBUBIJY4nYxl2ne9-Kdtx_0CeEYs_DJrpUu5A_jLiuTt25-T4UJc7GIYHpLKye840gRsdAFd1OQYRcGhUczK0Hy6lM2yBZ74kRFEPmDIDpNdzlBzKIKyCtynh9dbyuuNr0LAUUhXBSYRVYo4iB5hUlVH1-35GO1JXY43/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqeIcP6GMBgqn6-7aECBUBIJY4nYxl2ne9-Kdtx_0CeEYs_DJrpUu5A_jLiuTt25-T4UJc7GIYHpLKye840gRsdAFd1OQYRcGhUczK0Hy6lM2yBZ74kRFEPmDIDpNdzlBzKIKyCtynh9dbyuuNr0LAUUhXBSYRVYo4iB5hUlVH1-35GO1JXY43/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Wake Forest</b> +2.5 NC State</div><div>As a Wake Forest fan and alum, I have watched portions of every game in this series for at least the past quarter century. And anecdotally, it always seemed like the home team managed to win. When I fact-checked those numbers, that was indeed the case. Since 1996, Wake Forest has won twice in Raleigh (2006 and 2018). Since 1997, NC State has won twice in Winston-Salem (2001 and 2015). Thus, in the past 27 games in this series, the home team is an incredible 23-4! I think there is a good chance that trend continues on Saturday. Wake Forest played one of their best games on the season offensively on the road <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401525539" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">at Duke last week</span></a>. The team netted just 21 points, but they racked up 400 yards of total offense and averaged over six yards per play for the first time since their second game of the year against Vanderbilt. Missed kicks and costly turnovers did them in against a quality Duke squad. Meanwhile, NC State is probably a little overvalued after winning back to back home games as an underdog against Clemson and Miami. The Wolfpack are 22-4 straight up in Raleigh since the start of the 2020 season. The road has been much less hospitable (6-9 in road ACC games in that span). I expect a tight game where points are at a premium, so take the underdog. </div><div><br /></div><div>Appalachian State +2 <b>Georgia State</b></div><div>Its been a rough year for the Mountaineers from Boone. Their defense has been uncharacteristically poor and has let them down on numerous occasions. Despite their defensive struggles, the Mountaineers have been in almost every game and still have an outside shot at winning the Sun Belt. Each of their four losses has come by a touchdown or less, and the Mountaineers led in three of those losses in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Georgia State has hit a rough patch after a solid start. The Panthers have lost two in a row and four of six after a 4-0 start. A closer look reveals the schedule is the likely culprit. In their first three games, Georgia State beat Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Charlotte. Those squads have combined for three victories against FBS teams. Their fourth victory was legitimately impressive, as they won at Coastal Carolina. Based on recent results though, that was before the Chanticleers got rolling under first year head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Beck_(American_football,_born_1966)" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">Tim Beck</span></a>. Appalachian State has dominated this series, winning all nine meetings since joining the Sun Belt in 2014 with eight of the wins (including each one in Atlanta) coming by double digits. This is also the first time Georgia State has been favored in this series. These teams appear to be trending in opposite directions and the series history makes the Mountaineers the pick. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Missouri</b> +1.5 Tennessee</div><div>I don't quite understand this spread. Missouri has only lost two games all season (Georgia and LSU) and the Tigers were competitive in both defeats. The Tigers have also been dominant in their league victories, with all three of their SEC wins coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Tennessee has dropped two of their three SEC road games. The loss to Alabama is understandable, but losing in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Hill_Griffin_Stadium" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">The Swamp</span></a> to Florida would make me wary of backing this team away from Knoxville. As expected, with the loss of <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/hendon-hooker-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Hendon Hooker</span></a> and <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jalin-hyatt-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">Jalin Hyatt</span></a>, the Vols have not been as explosive offensively. Last season, against SEC foes, they averaged over 43 points per game. This season, those numbers are a much more mortal 26 per game. The Vols can still dominate overmatched opponents. Witness their scoring averages against Austin Peay, Connecticut, UTSA, and Virginia (nearly 46 points per game), but they are right around average against SEC opponents. Take the Tigers to pull off this slight upset. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Coastal Carolina</b> +1.5 Texas State</div><div>I'm glad Texas State will be playing in a bowl game for the first time in their <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/texas-state/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">brief history</span></a> as an FBS program. However, are we giving them a little too much respect in this spot? After dropping their first two Sun Belt games to Georgia State and Georgia Southern, the Chanticleers have reeled off four consecutive victories and have a decent chance to get back to the Sun Belt Championship Game. Actually winning that game may prove to be a trifle difficult, so perhaps they can root for James Madison to win their <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38841448/jmu-again-appeals-ncaa-reduce-football-transition-period" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">NCAA appeal</span></a>. But I digress. The Chanticleers have done this despite losing supernova quarterback <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/grayson-mccall-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">Grayson McCall</span></a> to an injury three weeks ago. Without McCall, the Chanticleers put up over 400 yards in each of their next two games and scored 62 combined points. Texas State has a winning Sun Belt record (3-2), but they are actually slightly underwater in terms of Net YPP in league play (- .05). Meanwhile, Coastal has outgained their Sun Belt opponents by nearly a yard per play (+ 0.97). The wrong team is favored here. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Cal</b> -1.5 Washington State</div><div>Washington State is leaking oil. After beginning the year 4-0, the Cougars have dropped five in a row. A few of the losses are understandable. Road trips to UCLA and Oregon were tough as was a home date with Arizona. However, their two most recent defeats (at Arizona State and home to Stanford) were bad. The Cougars managed just seven points against a woeful Stanford defense and now need to win two of their final three games to even qualify for a bowl. Their opponent in this game, Cal, will likely miss out on a bowl for the fourth consecutive season as they have dropped four in a row to fall to 3-6. In fairness though, four of their six losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the College Football Playoff Rankings. The other two came to Southern Cal and an SEC school (Auburn). I don't like laying points with Cal, but this number is too low to not back the Bears. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>TCU</b> +10 Texas</div><div>Since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and getting an annual shot at their big brother, TCU has performed quite well against the marquee football program in Texas. The Horned Frogs are 8-3 both straight up and ATS against the Longhorns. Coming off an appearance in the College Football Playoff (something Texas has yet to accomplish), the Horned Frogs have struggled. They opened the season by faceplanting against Colorado, then won three in a row to temporarily right the ship. However, since beating a pretty good SMU team, the Horned Frogs have dropped four of five and are in danger of missing out on the postseason entirely. However, three of those four losses came away from Fort Worth. Returning to the friendly confines, I think TCU will put up a fight in the last game they will play against Texas for the foreseeable future. The Longhorns are just 7-9 straight up in road or neutral field games under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sarkisian" target="_blank"><span style="color: #800180;">Steve Sarkisian</span></a>. Would a close victory or even a loss to the Horned Frogs really surprise you? </div><div><br /></div><div><b>San Jose State</b> +1 Fresno State</div><div>San Jose State faced an arduous early season schedule. The Spartans played Southern Cal, Toledo, and Boise State on the road while hosting Oregon State and Air Force. They lost all five of those games (the Toledo and Boise games were close) and were 1-5 halfway through the season. However, once the schedule eased up, the Spartans surged. They have dominated their past three opponents, winning by a combined margin of 129-45. Neither of those three teams (New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii) are much to write home about, but I think we can learn something from that domination. Now, the Spartans not only have a chance to get to a second consecutive bowl game, but they also have an outside shot at getting to the Mountain West Championship Game as two of the teams ahead of them in the standings (Fresno State and UNLV) are still on the schedule. While San Jose State had a rough start to 2023, Fresno won their first five games and earned a spot in the AP Poll. They dropped a game at Wyoming (who hasn't?), but have won three in a row and have eyes on a second consecutive berth in the Mountain West Championship Game. As someone who has watched a great deal of Fresno State games and is holding a soon to be worthless under 8.5 wins ticket, the Bulldogs are not that good. However, they have made the plays when it counted, posting a 5-1 record in close games. Their past three victories have all come by a touchdown or less and the Bulldogs are +5 in turnover margin in those three games. The ball will eventually stop bouncing Fresno's way and I think it starts Saturday night. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-2093037400189856262023-11-02T04:25:00.000-07:002023-11-02T04:25:41.261-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week XFor the first time in a month, we gave you some winners. The overall record is still terrible, but let's see if we can close strong. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 5-2</div><div>Overall: 26-36-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4axBznzqYJaFVuoC6QvyJZLF0Kom8uL6MiyGKgsvWUikxPvRtLpaPjXWgtAQPjh8FoFPL2SJK11yAPbF49NWC1_Lo3wHURfBHI5MHr7C4SmI_-knRLXxxDFREiLjw9ODVUyERdHsbyiWkmkouL6ULizC0KjsjH9CySVvmrqJwOIpRG5FfxSBJ/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4axBznzqYJaFVuoC6QvyJZLF0Kom8uL6MiyGKgsvWUikxPvRtLpaPjXWgtAQPjh8FoFPL2SJK11yAPbF49NWC1_Lo3wHURfBHI5MHr7C4SmI_-knRLXxxDFREiLjw9ODVUyERdHsbyiWkmkouL6ULizC0KjsjH9CySVvmrqJwOIpRG5FfxSBJ/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Jacksonville State +15.5 <b>South Carolina</b></div><div>If I had told you back in the summer that when these two Gamecocks got together, one of them would have exactly a single victory against an FBS opponent, you probably would not have been surprised. After all, Jacksonville State was beginning life as an FBS program and entered 2023 with <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#cusa" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">meager expectations</span></a>. Well, one of these teams does enter with exactly one FBS win, but it's probably not the team you were expecting. Six weeks ago, South Carolina <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=401520267" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">beat Mississippi State</span></a> in Columbia to improve to 2-2 on the year. Since beating the Bulldogs, the Gamecocks have dropped four in a row while allowing 146 total points. In fact, every FBS team with the exception of Georgia (go figure) has scored at least 30 points against this alleged SEC defense. Giving up a lot of points and struggling to run the ball (South Carolina averages under three yards per carry) is not a good recipe for covering a large spread. Jacksonville State is a surprising 7-2 in their first year as an FBS team, but that record is a more a function of an easy schedule (Conference USA is the worst FBS league), a good record in close games (3-0 in one-score contests), and a good turnover margin (+9). Still, the other Gamecocks have no bowl game or conference title to play for, so I expect them to be highly motivated playing an SEC team on the road. The other Gamecocks also pressure opposing quarterbacks well, accumulating 30 sacks on the season (13th nationally in sacks per game). And South Carolina has done a poor job of protecting Spencer Rattler, allowing 34 sacks on the year (128th nationally in sacks allowed). You can manually adjust those sack numbers a bit based on each team's respective schedules, but Jacksonville State pressures quarterbacks better than the average team and South Carolina protects worse than average. I don't think the FBS neophytes have the goods to win outright, but they should keep this close and with South Carolina's poor defense and lack of running attack to salt the game away, the back door will be wide open. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Virginia</b> -2 Georgia Tech</div><div>Does it strike you as odd that Virginia, a team that is 2-6 is favored against Georgia Tech, a team that is 4-4? Same here. In situations like this, I think trusting the oddsmakers is a good idea. Georgia Tech has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Through eight games, the Yellow Jackets have beaten ranked (at the time) Miami and North Carolina teams while also losing at home by multiple scores to both Bowling Green and Boston College. <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401525537" target="_blank"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Last week's victory</span></a> against North Carolina was their third in a row against the Tar Heels and the scene in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Dodd_Stadium" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Bobby Dodd Stadium</span></a> was electric. Can the Yellow Jackets build on that momentum and get one step closer to their first bowl bid since 2018? Under Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have seven outright upsets including their most recent victory against the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS in their next game after pulling those upsets. Georgia Tech also has a poor track record in Charlottesville. In their previous nine visits to the commonwealth, they are 2-7 straight up despite being favored six times. Virginia is better than their 2-6 record and still has a remote chance to become bowl eligible by winning their last four games (three of which are at home). Take the Cavaliers to cover this small number. </div><div><br /></div><div>Army +18.5 Air Force @ Denver</div><div>While not given the same pomp and circumstance as Army/Navy, this penultimate leg of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander-in-Chief%27s_Trophy" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Commander in Chief's Trophy</span></a> has been pretty competitive in recent years. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 11-5 straight up against Army, but most of those victories came prior to Jeff Monken's arrival at West Point. The Falcons are just 5-4 against Army since Monken took over the Cadets and just 3-5-1 ATS, including 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite. The past five games in this series have all been decided by a touchdown or less with very low combined point totals. In the past five games, the teams have combined for an average of just 27 total points. If we get another low-scoring affair, it will be very difficult for the Falcons to cover this big number. This number seems too big, but using their respective performances this season, one can see why Air Force is such a prohibitive favorite. The Falcons are undefeated and potentially playing for a New Year's Six bowl game while Army is 2-6 and struggling offensively as they try and <a href="https://www.asforfootball.com/2023/08/25/armys-new-offense-what-will-it-look-like/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">transition away</span></a> from the traditional flexbone triple option. The Cadets have averaged just under fifteen points per game against FBS opponents this season and have been shutout twice. Despite their struggles, the series history suggests a close game and remember, Air Force struggled to put away a Navy team playing with their backup quarterback two weeks ago. The Midshipmen got an honorary backdoor cover when they scored late and for some reason went for two to blow the actual cover. But I digress. I think the Cadets drag Air Force into the muck and keep it close in a low-scoring game. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Vanderbilt</b> +12.5 Auburn</div><div>After a 2-0 start, the Commodores have dropped seven in a row to clinch their third consecutive losing season under head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clark_Lea" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f1c232;">Clark Lea</span></a> and tenth consecutive losing season overall. Meanwhile, Auburn broke a four-game losing streak last week to move to 4-4 and put themselves in position for a bowl bid. These two teams occupy different divisions in the SEC and have not played regularly. They have only met four times since 2007, and the teams have split those four games with the home team winning each. The last three in this series (2007, 2008, and 2016) have all been decided by a touchdown or less and in their past six trips to Nashville, Auburn has only won by margin once (<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2003-09-13-vanderbilt.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">2003</span></a>). Their other five trips to Nashville have either resulted in a close win (1991, 1993, 2001) or a close loss (2008, 2012). I expect more of the same on Saturday. Auburn has played three true road games all season and has scored a combined 42 points in those games. And two of those three games included trips to Cal (allowing nearly 34 points per game this season) and LSU (allowing nearly 27 points per game). Auburn's season high for points against a Power Five opponent came last week against Mississippi State (27). I expect Auburn's point total to be in the high teens or low twenties which will not be enough to cover this number. </div><div><br /></div><div>Louisiana-Monroe +2.5 <b>Southern Miss</b></div><div>I find it fitting that a few days before <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Halloween</span></a>, the corpse of Southern Miss rose from the grave and put a scare into Appalachian State. The Golden Eagles had dropped six in a row heading into their game with the Mountaineers and had been outscored by 148 points in that six-game skid. Miraculously, the Golden Eagles remembered <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/frank-gore-jr-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Frank Gore Jr</span></a>. was on their team (at least until the fourth quarter) and gashed the Mountaineers. Southern Miss led by ten in the fourth quarter, but allowed three consecutive touchdown drives to eventually drop their seventh in a row. Do they have anything left with no bowl game to play for and is head coach Will Hall safe if they finish 2-10 or 3-9? Under Hall, this formerly proud program is 11-22 overall (8-22 versus FBS opponents) and 6-15 against conference foes. If Hall does survive the 2023 season, he will have to do some work in 2024 to remain employed. But I digress. Should the Eagles be laying points at home to a feisty Louisiana-Monroe team? The Warhawks have not fared much better than the Southern Miss in 2023, having lost six in row, but expectations were <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#sun-belt" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">much lower</span></a> in Monroe than Hattiesburg. These two teams faced off in the regular season finale in 2022 with Southern Miss needing a win to clinch bowl eligibility and Louisiana-Monroe playing for pride. The game was tied at ten in the fourth quarter, but Southern Miss scored the final ten points to become bowl eligible. This Southern Miss team is much worse and this Monroe team is at least as good and potentially better than last year's squad. Southern Miss shot their wad last week and I expect a flat performance on Saturday against the Warhawks. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Iowa State</b> -2.5 Kansas </div><div>Fun fact. Iowa State and Kansas have not played in a bowl game in the same season since <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/big-12/2005.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">2005</span></a>. It makes sense when you think about it as neither team has an illustrious history of football success. If this game plays out as the oddsmakers expect, that streak is likely to end as Kansas is already bowl eligible and Iowa State needs but a single victory to get there. The Cyclones have quietly won four of five after a disappointing road loss to Ohio. Two of those victories came on the road, a place where the Cyclones have struggled since their run to the Big 12 Championship Game in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, Iowa State was 1-8 in Big 12 road games! Now they return home for the first time in a month looking to mount another darkhorse run to the Big 12 Championship Game. As you may have heard, Kansas is off a <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401525874" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">rather big victory</span></a> of their own, knocking off Oklahoma for the first time since 1997. Can the Jayhawks come down from that high of knocking off one of the league's dominant programs and win a conference game on the road? I have my doubts. Iowa State has dominated this series in Ames, winning the past seven, with six of them coming by double digits. In addition, for all their success under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_Leipold" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Lance Leipold</span></a>, Kansas has struggled as a road underdog, posting a 4-9 ATS record with all the covers coming when they were catching at least a touchdown. Iowa State will win this game by at least a field goal and continue their resurgence under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Campbell_(American_football_coach)" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Matt Campbell</span></a>. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Boise State</b> +3 Fresno State</div><div>While we were busy shoveling dirt on Boise's grave, we forgot to look at the conference standings. Yes, the Broncos have four losses, but three of them came in the non-conference. In Mountain West play, the Broncos are 3-1 and have ample opportunity to play their way into yet another Mountain West Championship Game. In addition, outside of their loss to an elite Washington team on the road, their other losses have all been close. UCF beat them on the Smurf Turf with a last second field goal. Memphis beat them by three thanks in large part to a blocked field goal they returned for a touchdown. And Colorado State beat them on a last second Hail Mary. Boise may not be a contender at the national level, but they are still plenty good to make a run at the Mountain West title. While Boise has struggled in close games, Fresno State has a horseshoe up their ass. The Bulldogs own four victories by a touchdown or less (against just one loss), including two consecutive close wins in league play to move them to 3-1. Rearrange a few of those close wins and losses for both teams and the perception around this game would be entirely different. Take away the Boise Hail Mary loss and flip one of Fresno's tight victories and I think the Broncos would be favored in their trip to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Valley" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Silicon Valley</span></a>. As it stands, the Broncos are a value play catching three points. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-89309712434135555052023-10-26T03:19:00.005-07:002023-10-26T03:19:37.211-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IXYou know those people who say 'it gets better'? Well, that is not always the case. The hits just keep on coming. We had some bad picks and some bad beats and it all adds up to a 1-6 week. We'll try and do better this week (would be hard to do worse). <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 1-6</div><div>Overall: 21-34-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglVzSfZ6-1ABNF-zAyPTnIbJ7Npw1MumZdaXqjEaV1V4PWr5Zs2Vus-LXNSDNs352pdsbphL6m167T0zP-SGa3t-tfc6rJ5IoVUKmeKB0fd7YMGhVqD5p09TQbseHsrSRd6Eir_bSldnuZ4M3jRZTKoRgj3mfNd4kUooMQ5lVRS8DzcdoDeivl/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglVzSfZ6-1ABNF-zAyPTnIbJ7Npw1MumZdaXqjEaV1V4PWr5Zs2Vus-LXNSDNs352pdsbphL6m167T0zP-SGa3t-tfc6rJ5IoVUKmeKB0fd7YMGhVqD5p09TQbseHsrSRd6Eir_bSldnuZ4M3jRZTKoRgj3mfNd4kUooMQ5lVRS8DzcdoDeivl/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Kansas</b> +10 Oklahoma</div><div>Speaking in purely technical terms, this Oklahoma team just seems gettable. Don't they? The Sooners are unbeaten and will likely be favored in their final five regular season games, but they don't seem elite to me. SMU was within one score of them in the fourth quarter in Norman, they scored twenty points on the road at Cincinnati, and they needed a fourth quarter comeback to knock off UCF last week. Perhaps they are a team of destiny, or perhaps it all falls apart on Saturday in Lawrence, Kansas. Oklahoma has played two road games thus far in 2023 and Kansas is by far their stiffest road test. They play at Oklahoma State next week in the last edition of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bedlam_Series" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Bedlam</span></a> for the foreseeable future, so the Cowboys may end up being the best team the Sooners play on the road. Still, the difference between the Cowboys and Jayhawks is slight, but both are much better than Cincinnati and Tulsa. Even with their backup quarterback, Kansas will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma. Can they make enough stops to cover this number and potentially win outright? I think so. Kansas actually has a better per play differential in Big 12 action than Oklahoma (+0.49 versus +0.26) and they will be primed to get to bowl eligibility for a second consecutive season. Take the Jayhawks and don't be surprised if we see another top ten upset on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Virginia +19 <b>Miami</b></div><div>Both the Cavaliers and Hurricanes are off massive wins. Virginia pulled a road upset against a top ten North Carolina squad while Miami beat Clemson for the first time since <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2010-10-02-clemson.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">2010</span></a> (only played five times since though). The victory halted a two game skid for Miami, represented their first home conference win under Mario Cristobal, and gave their faint ACC Championship Game hopes a little life. Before the ACC scrapped divisions, the Hurricanes and Cavaliers were both residents of the ACC Coastal and thus played every season since the Hurricanes joined the league in 2004. Miami is 11-8 against Virginia since joining the ACC, but that is less impressive considering they have been favored in sixteen of the nineteen contests. The Hurricanes have lost outright seven times as a favorite in this series and the favorite is just 9-9 straight up. Thirteen of the nineteen games have been decided by ten points or less, including the past five. These two teams played a <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2022-10-29-virginia.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">real snoozer</span></a> last season that was tied at six at the end of regulation. I expect a little more scoring this year, but Miami's victory against Clemson probably says more about the state of the program in the upstate of South Carolina that it does about the one in South Beach. Take the Cavaliers catching another big number. They probably won't win outright, but they will keep it close. </div><div><br /></div><div>Miami (Ohio) +7 <b>Ohio</b></div><div>This is a play-in for the MAC Championship Game for all intents and purposes. Both the Redhawks and Bobcats enter with 3-1 conference records, so the winner will leave with what amounts to a one and a half game lead with three to play. This game lost a little of its luster when Miami starting quarterback Brett Gabbert <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/miami-ohio-starting-qb-brett-gabbert-to-miss-remainder-of-2023-season-following-leg-surgery/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">went down with an injury</span></a> last week against Toledo. The Redhawks were unable to mount a comeback with his replacement and fell in a tight game to the Rockets. However, with a week to prepare, I think they will have some packages to take advantage of backup <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aveon-smith-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Aveon Smith's</span></a> mobility. Without Gabbert, the Redhawks will have to win this game with their defense which is one of the best in the MAC. League opponents are averaging under four yards per play against this unit and no MAC opponent has eclipsed twenty one points. Ohio also plays good defense and the total for this game currently sits at 39.5. Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game and I think that favors the underdog. Ohio scored 80 combined points in their victories against Bowling Green and Kent State. In their other six games, they have managed just 100 combined points. I expect them to struggle moving the ball and scoring points. Thus, the value in this spot is on the underdog. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Utah</b> +6.5 Oregon</div><div>If we throw out the pandemic impacted 2020 season, Utah has been unbeatable in Salt Lake City over the past five years. The Utes <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2018-09-15-utah.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4c1130;">lost to Washington</span></a> in their conference opener in 2018, and have won 27 straight since (with an asterisk for 2020 when they <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2020-11-21-utah.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">dropped a game</span></a> to Southern Cal). Outside of 2020, this also marks the first time Utah has been a home underdog since that loss to Washington. Two weeks ago, it looked like the two best teams in the Pac-12 were facing off in Seattle, but both the Ducks and Huskies have looked vulnerable and a fifth berth by the Utes in the Pac-12 Championship Game is not out of the question. Oregon has struggled on the road against good teams, failing to cover against both Washington State and Oregon State last season, needing a late defensive touchdown to cover against Texas Tech this season, and losing to Washington two weeks ago. After struggling to move the ball through the first half of the season, Utah appears to have found an offense in the past two games. Cal and Southern Cal are not defensive stalwarts, but the Utes had a hard time moving the ball against Florida, Baylor, and Weber State. I'm not going to get in front of this Utah team at home. Take the points and the Utes. </div><div><br /></div><div>Arkansas State +2.5 <b>Louisiana-Monroe</b></div><div>It hasn't gotten to the level of Ohio State/Indiana or Alabama/Vanderbilt, but this series has been low-key dominated by Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have won thirteen in a row (last loss in <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2009-10-13-louisiana-monroe.html" target="_blank">2009</a>) and have covered the spread in all thirteen games! They have been favored in eleven of the thirteen games, but both times they were underdogs (2013 and 2021), it was by a similar number as this one. They won the 2013 game handily and squeaked by the Warhawks in 2021. Why would things be any different this season? Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terry_Bowden" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">Terry Bowden</span></a>, but should they be laying points in a conference game? This is just the third time they have been favored against an FBS opponent under Bowden and they have failed to cover the two previous games. Plus, Arkansas State has done well as a road underdog against Group of Five opponents under Butch Jones, posting an 8-4 ATS record in the role. Arkansas State is the better team and still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility. With five losses, Louisiana-Monroe is playing out the string and will drop their fourteenth in a row to the Red Wolves on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Georgia Tech</b> +11.5 North Carolina</div><div>The Yellow Jackets have been a simple handicap under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Key" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Brent Key</span></a>. They are great as underdogs and awful as favorites. Under Key, the Yellow Jackets are 8-2 ATS as an underdog, with five outright wins. Meanwhile, they are 0-4 ATS as a favorite and have not won a single game on the field! The Yellow Jackets move the ball well, ranking just behind North Carolina in yards per play in ACC games (6.32 to 6.31). When he is not turning the ball over as he was last week, <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/haynes-king-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Haynes King</span></a> is dual-threat quarterback. King rushed for 150 yards last week in their loss to Boston College and should be able to pick up a few first downs to keep drives alive against the Tar Heels. North Carolina still has a shot at the ACC Championship Game, but their playoff hopes were severely damaged in their home loss to Virginia last week. A flat performance would not surprise me. Plus, despite the different trajectories of these two programs, Georgia Tech has actually won the last two games in this series. They entered both contests as double digit underdogs off a loss. North Carolina is the better team, but this is too many points. </div><div><br /></div><div>New Mexico +1 <b>Nevada</b></div><div>The Lobos and Wolfpack both broke long conference droughts last week. Both teams finished winless in the <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/mwc/2022.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Mountain West</span></a> last year and New Mexico broke a fourteen game conference skid while Nevada halted theirs at a much more respectable ten. However, they did it in drastically different ways. New Mexico won a high-scoring affair, dropping 42 points on Hawaii, while Nevada shut out San Diego State and won while failing to score an offensive touchdown. That offensive capability is why I like New Mexico in this spot. The Lobos have scored 92 points in their three conference games while Nevada has scored just 42. Their defensive display against San Diego State came out of nowhere as they held the Aztecs under four yards per play. Each of their previous six opponents, including Idaho of the FCS had averaged at least six and half yards per play against the Wolfpack. I'm a little wary backing the Lobos on the road, with their leaky defense, but they should be able to score enough to win back to back league games for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-61032260584450101112023-10-19T03:19:00.003-07:002023-10-23T16:12:52.987-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VIIIAfter a more than a month, we finally got back in the win column. The overall record still sucks, but lets see if we can make some progress on that front. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 4-3</div><div>Overall: 20-28-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO7_lA89_3YwfEjWW1wV2KJhABiVdbAi4rey8fIB7pEEkTl0nEl_OFhEmTlaemBpuOEPJCao7kzAC8UL1g3hCG7sH4WqYBhkk5KqLoteog8ro1eNakwi1w8DerB98gKu2hlmC8mv4V5E1aUgtWclU90WjziteiYniyRfnaNUm4e18cdcPEowMH/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO7_lA89_3YwfEjWW1wV2KJhABiVdbAi4rey8fIB7pEEkTl0nEl_OFhEmTlaemBpuOEPJCao7kzAC8UL1g3hCG7sH4WqYBhkk5KqLoteog8ro1eNakwi1w8DerB98gKu2hlmC8mv4V5E1aUgtWclU90WjziteiYniyRfnaNUm4e18cdcPEowMH/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Navy</b> +10.5 Air Force</div><div>Halfway through the 2023 season, Air Force has to be the favorite to emerge as the highest ranked Group of Five team and play in a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year%27s_Six" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">New Year's Six Bowl</span></a>. The Falcons are 6-0 and likely to be favored in every game they play the rest of the way with the possible exception of the finale at Boise State. This role is nothing new for Air Force. The Falcons were favored in every regular season game they played last year (underdog to Baylor in their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Armed_Forces_Bowl" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">bowl game</span></a>) and were an underdog just once in 2021. The Falcons have lost six times as a betting favorite since start of the 2021 season including twice as a double digit favorite. Are the Falcons poised to fall out of the sky once again as a big favorite? I think they might be. For starters, the Midshipmen and Falcons are very familiar with each other, playing each season as two thirds of the participants in the battle for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander-in-Chief%27s_Trophy" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">Commander in Chief's Trophy</span></a>. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons are 8-8 against Navy, but just 2-6 in Annapolis. They won big the last time they were here two years ago as about a touchdown favorite, but this is just the third time they have been favored at Navy under Calhoun. In addition, their standout quarterback Zac Larrier <a href="https://clutchpoints.com/air-force-football-suffers-crushing-injury-blow-to-starting-qb-following-top-25-showing" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">suffered an injury</span></a> last week against Wyoming and will miss this game. Navy is also dealing with quarterback injuries, but the drop off between Larrier and his backup is likely much greater than the gap between the Navy quarterbacks that have split time this season. Navy is also better defensively than they were in the final years of the <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/nevada-las-vegas/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Ken Niumatalolo</span></a> regime. In 2021 and 2022, Navy ranked eleventh (second to last) in the AAC in yards allowed per play in league games. Halfway through the 2023 season, they rank a mediocre eighth in that statistic. Service academy games seem to always be close, so with a double digit spread and injury concerns for the favorite, the underdog is the play. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>UAB</b> +6.5 Memphis</div><div>I thought Memphis had a chance to win the AAC this season. The Tigers had an <a href="http://cfbstats.com/2023/player/404/1122112/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">experienced quarterback</span></a>, a <a href="https://fbschedules.com/2023-memphis-football-schedule/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">manageable conference schedule</span></a>, and were getting last year's champ (Tulane) at home. The Tigers started 4-1, with their lone loss coming to a currently ranked SEC team (Missouri), but their failure to beat Tulane at home last week called into question their good start. The Tigers four wins include an FCS team, a bad Group of Five opponent that had yet to make a needed quarterback change (Arkansas State), Navy, and Boise State. The Navy and Boise State games were decided by four and three points respectively with the margin against Boise State coming on a short blocked field goal return touchdown. The Tigers aren't as good as I thought they would be and they have done performed poorly on the road under head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Silverfield" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">Ryan Silverfield</span></a>. Under Silverfield, the Tigers are just 2-5 ATS as a road favorite. In addition, they are an unthinkable 2-10 straight up in road conference games! UAB has been up and down in their first season under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trent_Dilfer" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Trent Dilfer</span></a>, but the Blazers are playing at home and have nothing to lose while Memphis has seen their conference title dreams take a significant hit. Take the Blazers and the points. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Miami (Ohio)</b> +2 Toledo</div><div>This might be the game of the year in the MAC and a preview of the conference title game. So thank goodness it is not consigned to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESPN%2B" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">ESPN+</span></a>. You can watch this one on your terrestrial ESPNU channel so there is no need for boomer mid-westerners to ask their kids or grandkids to hook ESPN+ up to the main television. These two teams have not received an iota of attention from the national media, but the winner will probably receive a few sundry votes in the next AP Poll. Had Toledo <a href="https://www.hustlebelt.com/2023/9/3/23857427/illinois-fighting-illini-toledo-rockets-football-game-recap-score-stats-september-2-2023" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">held on</span></a> to beat Illinois in their opener, they would probably be ranked. But such is the challenge for Group of Five college football programs. Lose once and the nation forgets about you unless you win your next ten. Still, for my money this is the best and most exciting game in the mid-afternoon window (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Saturday_in_October" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">third Saturday in October</span></a> be damned). As for handicapping this game, I like the Redhawks because they have been one of the best MAC home teams of the past half-decade. Under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Martin_(American_football)" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Chuck Martin</span></a>, they are 23-11 straight up in MAC home games, but 15-3 in such games since the start of the 2018 season. They are also 9-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under Martin, including 5-1 ATS since 2018. Plus I think this game means more to Miami. The Redhawks travel to Ohio next week and need to bank all the league wins they can. Meanwhile, Toledo already has a head to head win against their biggest division rival (Northern Illinois) and a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. </div><div><br /></div><div>Hawaii -1 <b>New Mexico</b></div><div>Before the season started, I was somewhat optimistic about New Mexico's chances of fielding a competitive team in the Mountain West. The Lobos were historically bad on offense last season and brought in a <a href="https://athlonsports.com/college-football/mountain-west-football-uab-blazers-transfer-qb-dylan-hopkins-ready-for-swan-song-with-new-mexico-oc-mentor-bryant-vincent" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">quality transfer quarterback</span></a> along with his offensive coordinator. They had also quietly posted a <a href="http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/07/first-half-point-differential-2021.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">solid first half point differential</span></a> last season, which is often indicative of improvement the following season. The offense has improved in 2023, with the Lobos more than doubling their per game scoring output from last season. However, the defense has fallen off a cliff. The Lobos are allowing over 34 points per game and if we remove their FCS contest, that number jumps to 39 points per game. The Lobos have also continued to struggle in the second half of games. If we ignore their games against teams they had no shot to defeat (Texas A&M) and teams they were heavily favored against (Tennessee Tech), and focus solely on their four games against similar opponents (Massachusetts, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Wyoming), the Lobos have performed admirably in the first half. They have outscored those four opponents by a combined seven points in their first half. In all four games, they were never trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime. However, in the second half of those four games, the Lobos have been outscored by 54 total points. They have not won a single second half and nearly blew a two touchdown lead at Massachusetts before prevailing in overtime. Hawaii has been competitive in their second season under local legend <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timmy_Chang" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">Timmy Chang</span></a> and are poised to win their first road game since 2021. Take the Rainbow Warriors. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Florida Atlantic</b> +3 Texas-San Antonio</div><div>On the surface, things appear to be back to normal for the Roadrunners since Frank Harris returned from injury two weeks ago. The AAC newcomers have won their first two league games by multiple scores while putting up 90 combined points. But if you dig a little deeper into those box scores, things may not be going quite as well as they seem. UTSA was outgained by both Temple and UAB, but the Roadrunners were +2 in turnovers in both games. Three of the five turnovers they forced in those two games led directly to short touchdown drives of less than twenty yards (two gave them goal to go opportunities). Turnovers are great for winning games, but less so for predicting the future. If the Roadrunners finish +2 in turnovers in this game, there is a great shot they cover this small number. But turnovers are a fickle mistress and I think they have inflated this line in favor of UTSA. In addition, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Herman" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Tom Herman</span></a> has been fantastic as a home underdog in his previous stops at Houston and Texas (4-1 ATS in the role). I'll back him again in one of his favorite spots and call for an outright upset by the Owls. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Old Dominion</b> +6.5 Appalachian State</div><div>It feels like the end may be coming for <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawn_Clark" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Shawn Clark</span></a> at Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a proud program and do not stand for mediocrity. And, over the last year and a half, the Mountaineers have been mediocre or worse. Clark began his career in Boone 19-5. However, since the start of the 2021 postseason (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sun_Belt_Conference_Football_Championship_Game" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Sun Belt Championship Game</span></a>), the Mountaineers are just 9-11 (6-11 versus FBS opponents!). Perhaps its just a run of bad luck as the Mountaineers are just 3-9 in one-score games in that span. But this year, the defense has fallen off a cliff. The Mountaineers have allowed over seven yards per play to their first two Sun Belt opponents. They lost on a last second field goal to Coastal Carolina, but were fortunate to escape Louisiana-Monroe on a field goal of their own the game prior. The Sun Belt is a highly competitive league, so it would not be surprising to see Appalachian State finish 6-6 or worse for a second consecutive year. The Mountaineers have also been bad on the road under Clark, posting a 3-10-1 ATS mark as a road favorite with seven outright losses. In addition, their only road victory since upsetting a top ten Texas A&M team last year was by one point at Louisiana-Monroe a few weeks ago. After bottoming out at 3-9 last season, Old Dominion has already matched their win total halfway through 2023. They have already <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2023-09-09-old-dominion.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">pulled one outright home upset</span></a> against a conference opponent this season and also put a major scare into an ACC team in Norfolk. Take the Monarchs to cover this number and don't be surprised if they win outright. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>UNLV</b> -8 Colorado State</div><div>This is a massive game for both teams. UNLV is 5-1 and on the precipice of receiving votes in the <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">AP Poll</span></a>. The Rebels have never been ranked in their history and considering their <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/nevada-las-vegas/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">pedigree</span></a>, they are a long shot to bust into the poll. However, they have a great shot at playing in just their third bowl game this century, and despite a back-loaded schedule, have an outside shot at playing in the Mountain West Championship Game. Meanwhile, Colorado State has won three of four after an 0-2 start and the Rams have designs on their first bowl bid since 2017. The Rams <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2023-09-09-old-dominion.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">staged a miraculous rally</span></a> on Saturday night to upset Boise State. Down twenty with under five minutes to go, the Rams scored, recovered an onside kick, scored, nearly recovered another onside kick, and completed a Hail Mary at the gun to win. It helped that Boise head coach Andy Avalos was asleep at the wheel when the Broncos scored a touchdown to go up nineteen with about six minutes to go in the game. The Broncos should have gone for two as a conversion would have given them a full three touchdown lead. But I digress. While the rally is great for their bowl hopes, it also masked their offensive struggles. The Rams had scored ten points through 90% of the ball game. That came one week after turnovers and special teams plays helped them build a 17-0 lead against Utah State. The Rams would score just seven more points en route to a blowout loss to the Aggies. Colorado State is one dimensional on offense, as they average under three yards per carry despite allowing only nine sacks on the season. Freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has made some big plays, but befitting his youth and inexperience, he has also thrown eleven interceptions. Colorado State is 2-7 on the road under Jay Norvell, with six of the seven losses coming by double digits. UNLV has scored at least forty points in every game this season when they did not play Michigan. I expect another great offensive showing by the Rebels and a double digit win. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-88843182388169820982023-10-12T15:02:00.003-07:002023-10-12T15:02:24.452-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VIIEgads. The first week of October did not go any better for us. Our yearly record is quite poor, so the goal of 55% is probably out of the question. Best we can hope for is to get back to .500 by the end of the year. As always, home teams in bold. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 2-5</div><div>Overall: 16-25-1</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6W8a1KcFMxIgmfNPEE8vx9RnCecfAaIAld-n4Zvxko3c4yOobEQNKlNGTWU_VVl5kkFtyNapu4HOfYSbWpMsEj5y6QybuLiYkBkPcTUQk4jnOTR6mQGxXpNRNWIDO2TikxAcbu29L5ydosutIe6UGL1WWP81C76rs9IcXY7Mo3eRMU7V2W9KN/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6W8a1KcFMxIgmfNPEE8vx9RnCecfAaIAld-n4Zvxko3c4yOobEQNKlNGTWU_VVl5kkFtyNapu4HOfYSbWpMsEj5y6QybuLiYkBkPcTUQk4jnOTR6mQGxXpNRNWIDO2TikxAcbu29L5ydosutIe6UGL1WWP81C76rs9IcXY7Mo3eRMU7V2W9KN/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Kent State +9 <b>Eastern Michigan</b></div><div>If I've written it once on this blog, I've written it a thousand times. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Creighton" target="_blank"><span style="color: #38761d;">Chris Creighton</span></a> is one of the best coaches in college football and his teams are a virtual ATM when catching points. However, they are much less reliable when laying points. Under Creighton, the Eagles are 6-13 ATS as a home favorite with ten outright losses. The Eagles covered last week as a small home favorite against Ball State, but that fourteen point margin was a bit misleading. Eastern Michigan was outgained and averaged under four yards per play. Two turnovers by the Cardinals and three fourth down stops by Eastern Michigan flipped that game. There is a lot of parity in the MAC and Eastern Michigan represents by far the weakest FBS team Kent State has faced this season. In the non-conference, they faced two Power Five teams on the road (Arkansas and UCF) as well as the a solid Mountain West team (Fresno State). Then to open league play, they faced the two best teams in their division (Miami and Ohio). Kent State is not a good team, but neither is Eastern Michigan, so so I expect a tight game. Gobble up those nine points with the Golden Flashes. </div><div><br /></div><div>Georgia Southern +6 <b>James Madison</b></div><div>The <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32565005/james-madison-dukes-making-move-fbs-joining-sun-belt-conference" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4c1130;">transition to FBS</span></a> has not been a problem for James Madison. The Dukes won their first five games as an FBS team last season on their way to an 8-3 finish and are 5-0 once again. While the Dukes have stacked wins, their margin has not been great. Their four wins against FBS teams have come by a combined eighteen points. Give the Dukes credit though, as they have managed to win several different types of games. They won a shootout at Virginia, a defensive struggle at Troy, and a pair of blowouts that turned tight against Utah State and South Alabama. The Dukes have been great against the run, holding their opponents to under two yards per rush when including for sacks. They lead the nation in sacks per game, having totaled 23 through their first five contests. However, when opposing quarterbacks don't get tackled in the backfield, they have managed to move the ball against the Dukes. Their four FBS opponents have averaged 8.25 yards per pass against their secondary. That may play right into the hands of the pass happy Eagles from Statesboro. The Eagles throw the ball more than any team in FBS (over 49 passes per game) and have allowed only eleven sacks on the season. Were this game played a few years ago when Georgia Southern ran the <a href="https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/georgia-southern-finally-gets-rid-of-gun-option-after-6-misreable-years.104540/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">triple option</span></a>, the Dukes would be poised to shut it down. However, playing against the new look Eagles, I expect the Dukes to give up quite a few yards through the air. James Madison may prevail, but it will be close. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Oklahoma State</b> +3 Kansas</div><div>This is an historic moment for Kansas football. Earlier this season, <a href="https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/teams/kansas/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Kansas was a road favorite</span></a> against Nevada. But this week, they are road favorites in a conference game for the first time since 2009! A child born the <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2009-11-07-kansas-state.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">last time</span></a> Kansas was favored in a Big 12 road game would be entering high school now! For what its worth, Kansas has been a road favorite five times since their Orange Bowl run in 2007. They are 1-4 ATS in those games with two outright losses and two wins by a touchdown or less. At 5-1, Kansas appears to be headed to a bowl game for a second consecutive season, and while the offense continues to be among the best in the Big 12, the team has been somewhat fortunate in the early going. They have scored three non-offensive touchdowns in their first three league games (an interception and fumble return against BYU and a punt return against UCF) and are +4 in turnovers in those Big 12 games. Meanwhile, after an <a href="https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-state-osu-south-alabama-score-recap/45174044" target="_blank"><span style="color: #b45f06;">embarrassing home loss</span></a> to South Alabama, Oklahoma State seems to be back on track, losing a tight game in Ames and beating the reigning Big 12 champ at home. This won't go down as Mike Gundy's best team, but the Cowboys should be able to get to yet another bowl game (18th straight). The Cowboys are mediocre as a home underdog under Gundy (11-11-2 ATS), but as you might guess, most of those games came early in his tenure. In his first six seasons (2005-2010), the Cowboys were just 4-6-2 as a home underdog). However, since 2011, they are 7-5 ATS in the role, with two of the non-covers coming against Oklahoma. In addition, since 2016, they are 6-1 ATS as a home underdog with six outright wins (lone loss came to Oklahoma). This is an unfamiliar spot for Kansas, so back the home underdog. </div><div><br /></div><div>Bowling Green +4 <b>Buffalo</b></div><div>A few weeks ago, I wrote there were three good teams in the MAC (Miami, Ohio, and Toledo) and nine teams of varying forms of trash. Despite Bowling Green's <a href="https://www.hustlebelt.com/2023/9/30/23897624/bowling-green-falcons-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets-football-game-recap-takeaways-september-30-2023" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">road win against Georgia Tech</span></a> and Buffalo's two-game winning streak, I stand by that statement. After scoring 38 points against Georgia Tech and getting their <a href="https://footballscoop.com/news/georgia-tech-demotes-defensive-coordinator-following-loss-to-bowling-green" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">defensive coordinator demoted</span></a>, the Falcons were shutout by Miami. The loss dropped the Falcons to 2-4, but their schedule has been arduous. They have faced two unbeaten teams in the non-conference (Liberty and Michigan) as well as two of the best teams in the MAC (Miami and Ohio). And of course, the aforementioned Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Buffalo has eased into MAC play with games against Akron and Central Michigan. The Bulls were taken to overtime by the woeful Zips and their big victory against Central Michigan was aided by four turnovers and two defensive touchdowns. Bowling Green is probably the better team and this spread should be much close to a pick 'em. Take the Falcons and the points. </div><div><br /></div><div>Kansas State +1.5 <b>Texas Tech</b></div><div>When Nebraska and Colorado left the Big 12 in 2011, the conference scrapped divisions and instituted a true round-robin schedule. Thus, Kansas State and Texas Tech have played each of the past twelve seasons. In that span, Kansas State is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS. They have been successful in both Manhattan and Lubbock, winning five of the six games at Texas Tech with their only loss coming in 2015. Texas Tech has rebounded from their 1-3 start, winning their last two games in blowout fashion. However, those victories have come against Houston and Baylor, two teams that have combined for three FBS wins between them. Based on the series history, the play is Kansas State. </div><div><br /></div><div>Wyoming +10.5 <b>Air Force</b></div><div>The winner of this game will have the inside track to the Mountain West Championship Game. If the winner happens to be Air Force, it may be time to consider the Falcons the favorite to emerge from the Group of Five and be selected for a New Year's Six bowl game. The Falcons, along with the Flames of Liberty and the Dukes of James Madison, are the only remaining unbeaten teams from the G5. James Madison is ineligible for the postseason and Liberty plays in arguably the weakest FBS conference, so an undefeated Air Force would practically be a shoe in for the NY6. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Should the Falcons really be this large a favorite against a solid Wyoming team? The Mountain West scrapped divisions prior to the season, but in the before times, both the Cowboys and Falcons were members of the Mountain Division, meaning they played each other once a year. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_Calhoun" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Troy Calhoun</span></a> has been at Air Force for seventeen seasons and is creeping up on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_DeBerry" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Fisher DeBerry</span></a> in terms of tenure at the academy. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Bohl" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Craig Bohl</span></a> is in his tenth season at Wyoming, so these two coaches are very familiar with each other. Since Bohl arrived in Laramie, the Cowboys are 5-3 against the Falcons despite being underdogs seven times. Bohl's teams have done a good job of holding Air Force triple option in check. The Falcons have averaged just over 21 points per game in the eight contests (22 points per game at home) and have never scored more than 31. Wyoming has been tested in the first half of their schedule, facing two Big 12 teams (Texas and Texas Tech), Appalachian State, and Fresno State. Air Force has had it much easier through their first five games, with their best opponent probably being Utah State. These teams are 27th and 28th in the latest edition of the AP Poll, so hopefully the winner moves into the actual top 25. Befitting teams bunched so tightly in the rankings, I expect a close game. </div><div><br /></div><div>Southern Cal +2.5 <b>Notre Dame</b></div><div>I rarely like to back teams like Southern Cal since they tend to be overvalued by the betting market. But I think this week might be the time to buy them. The Trojans have won their first six games against a slate of bad to mediocre teams. Either Arizona or Colorado is the best team they have beaten and both those victories were close. With those two tight wins, the Trojans are now 6-2 (6-1 in the regular season) in one-score games under Lincoln Riley. The offense, led by reigning Heisman winner <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/caleb-williams-3.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Caleb Williams</span></a> is fantastic, but the defense is still bad. After a solid two-week showing against Stanford and Nevada, the Trojans have allowed 110 points the past three weeks (just 97 in regulation though). Now the schedule ramps up significantly in difficulty. Five of their final six opponents, including the Irish, are currently ranked in the AP Poll. I don't think they will make it through unscathed, but I think the wrong team is favored here. While Southern Cal is just beginning their gauntlet, Notre Dame is facing their fourth consecutive Power Five opponent. The Irish lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State, escaped at Duke, and were humbled by Louisville last week. How much do they have in the tank knowing their hopes of a spot in the College Football Playoff are dashed? Under Marcus Freeman, the Irish are just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite with the lone cover coming against a bad Boston College team last season. On the other sideline, Lincoln Riley has been an underdog four times in his career in the regular season (all on the road). His teams have covered in all four games and won outright twice. Anytime you can back the best player in college football catching a field goal, you have to do it. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-24357540285586040882023-10-05T03:24:00.004-07:002023-10-05T03:24:26.885-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week VITime to burn the film for the first month of play. That was a horrendous five weeks of picks. We have eight more regular season weeks, a championship weekend, and bowl season to dig out of this hole. Let's get started. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 2-5</div><div>Overall: 14-20-1</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcw6Zdf1yljDynBCWVp_a8I-erWkmg6OKqrgbmQ0WU_QBDvsgr9L4NhLBt5PROTujTDy0Q3hUd_YnddYK52Vp_XJ53T6Yj4a7q1xFWTwCTDrLgPsW4kACys_MZgAgV9JqP_ZvIAsX5E_bD5piiXq8gObBvIPfhUUJYfrYs6d7ZiXH4vTzXCTZI/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcw6Zdf1yljDynBCWVp_a8I-erWkmg6OKqrgbmQ0WU_QBDvsgr9L4NhLBt5PROTujTDy0Q3hUd_YnddYK52Vp_XJ53T6Yj4a7q1xFWTwCTDrLgPsW4kACys_MZgAgV9JqP_ZvIAsX5E_bD5piiXq8gObBvIPfhUUJYfrYs6d7ZiXH4vTzXCTZI/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Missouri</b> +5.5 LSU</div><div>After last week's <a href="https://therebelwalk.com/2023/10/2023-ole-miss-football-cinematic-recap-vs-lsu/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">defensive debacle in Oxford</span></a> and their poor defensive showing <a href="https://www.secsports.com/boxscore/football/401520258" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">two weeks ago</span></a> against Arkansas in Baton Rouge, I figured the betting market would sour on LSU. That does not appear to be the case. The Tigers are still laying nearly a touchdown on the road against a more than competent conference foe. LSU is 1-3 ATS as a SEC road favorite under Brian Kelly, covering earlier this season against a bad Mississippi State team, but otherwise playing underwhelming football. Meanwhile, Missouri is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Eli Drinkwitz and appears to be the biggest potential challenger to Georgia in the SEC East. Remember the name <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/luther-burden-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">Luther Burden</span></a>. Missouri's wide receive leads the nation with 644 yards through five games and with LSU's recent pass defense showings (nearly 700 yards at over nine yards per throw over the past two games), Burden could put up some serious fantasy numbers. After this game, LSU gets five of their last six at home (road trip to Tuscaloosa), but they may already have two conference defeats. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Temple</b> +14 Texas-San Antonio</div><div>Someone has to explain this spread to me. Two weeks ago, Temple was roughly a twenty-four point home underdog to Miami. As expected, the Owls did not acquit themselves well in that game, <a href="https://www.stateoftheu.com/2023/9/24/23887662/miami-hurricanes-football-film-review-miami-hurricanes-41-temple-owls-7-acc-american-mario-cristobal" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">losing 41-7</span></a>. Now, two weeks later, the Owls are fourteen points underdogs to a UTSA team that has not played well a month into the 2023 season. The Roadrunners are probably getting <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/frank-harris-3.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Frank Harris</span></a> back, which should be a boon to their bowl hopes, but that implies this version of the Roadrunners would be a ten-point underdog to Miami on a neutral field. I find that hard to believe. To further bolster the case for taking the Owls, consider that UTSA has not scored more than 29 points in any single game this season. To cover a two touchdown point spread, a team needs to score. As I mentioned, quarterback Frank Harris has missed time this season, but in the two games he started, the Roadrunners scored fourteen and twenty points against teams that are allowing nearly thirty points per game on the season. Temple is a bad team, but this spread is simply too high. </div><div><br /></div><div>Virginia Tech +24 <b>Florida State</b></div><div>Despite three regular season losses, Florida State was dominant last season. Their <a href="http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/01/2022-yards-per-play-acc.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">YPP Net</span></a> was head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC. I thought they were a darkhorse national title contender heading into the season and I was <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#national" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">not alone</span></a>. Despite their undefeated record and seemingly assured spot in the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles are not nearly as good as they were last season. Florida State beat LSU to open the season for the second consecutive year, but that game was much closer on the field than the three touchdown final margin would indicate. They followed that victory up with a bludgeoning of Southern Miss. While the victory was impressive, Southern Miss has not beaten an FBS team this season. Then Florida State struggled in their first two ACC games, nearly blowing a big lead against Boston College before beating Clemson on the road in overtime. While the Seminoles are 2-0 in ACC play, their YPP Net is zero. This means the Seminoles have averaged the exact same yards per play as their first two ACC opponents. Both those games came on the road, so we should give Florida State some extra credit there, but the team is not as dominant as they were last season. In fact, you could argue their dominance faded once conference play ended last year. In their past five games against Power Five opponents which includes last year's regular season finale against Florida, the bowl game against Oklahoma, and their three games this season against LSU, Boston College, and Clemson, the Seminoles have averaged 6.85 yards per play (good) and allowed 6.14 yards per play (not good). While two of those games came against LSU and Clemson this season, two also came against Florida and Oklahoma last season (combined 12-14 record) and Boston College this season. The Seminoles have won all five games, but outside of their three touchdown victory against LSU, the other four have all come by one score. Florida State entered as a prohibitive favorite in three of those four games (all but Clemson) and failed to cover in all three. Perhaps I am putting to much stock into <a href="https://hokiesports.com/news/2023/10/1/virgina-tech-football-drones-powers-to-38-21-victory-over-pittsburgh" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Virginia Tech's home victory</span></a> against a cratering Pitt team, and if my year to date record is any indication, I probably am, but Florida State feels like a team you should be fading. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Akron</b> +6.5 Northern Illinois</div><div>One week after foolishly backing the Zips as a favorite, I am back on board with them in their preferred role as an underdog. While Akron is just 1-14 straight up against FBS teams under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Moorhead" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Joe Moorhead</span></a>, the Zips are 9-5 ATS as an underdog. If there is a game to lose, the Zips will certainly lose it, but it will be close. The Zips are 1-8 in MAC play under Moorhead, but six of the eight defeats have come by a touchdown or less and three have come by a field goal or less. Plus, their only league win under Moorhead came in their penultimate game last season against...Northern Illinois. The Zips <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2022-11-26-northern-illinois.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">scored 42 points</span></a> in that game against the Huskies with <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jeff-undercuffler-2.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Jeff Undercuffler</span></a> throwing for a career high 312 yards. Undercuffler will be getting the start once again as DJ Irons is out with a <a href="https://www.hustlebelt.com/2023/10/3/23902466/akron-zips-qb-dj-irons-out-for-season-with-torn-acl-injury-jeff-undercuffler-joe-moorhead-mac-2023" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">torn ACL</span></a>. While Irons is more athletic, the offense never really got going with him this season (averaging seventeen points per game), so there may not be much of a drop off, if any. Northern Illinois has also been bad as a road favorite under Thomas Hammock, posting a 1-4 ATS mark with four outright losses. In addition, this is the most points they have been laying on the road under Hammock. I expect the Zips to play well enough on defense to lose yet another close game. </div><div><br /></div><div>Arkansas State +17 <b>Troy</b></div><div>One of my few good calls last week was Arkansas State catching a small number on the road against Massachusetts. The Red Wolves dropped 52 points on the Minutemen in their largest margin of victory against an FBS opponent under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butch_Jones" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Butch Jones</span></a>. The difficulty level increases significantly this weekend as the Red Wolves face the <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sun-belt/2022.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">defending Sun Belt champs</span></a>. Troy dropped two of their first three games, but have won two in a row and are looking to repeat their 2022 pattern of opening 1-2 and winning out. Troy continues to play remarkable defense at the Group of Five level, holding each of their three FBS G5 opponents under 300 yards of total offense. Even against a talented young quarterback like Jaylen Raynor, Troy should win this game. However, this is a very large spread and I don't think Troy's offense will be able to hold up their end of the bargain. To cover this spread, Troy will probably need to score thirty or more points. They have yet to do so against an FBS opponent in 2023 despite facing both Western Kentucky and Georgia State. Western Kentucky's defense is bad and Georgia State's is at beast average by Sun Belt standards. The Trojans scored 24 and 28 points respectively in those two games and one of their touchdowns against Western Kentucky came on an end of half Hail Mary. If this spread were under two touchdowns, I would be inclined to stay away, but seventeen points is too many. The Red Wolves were so bad in their first two games of the season, the market has yet to correct for their recent general competency. The Red Wolves will keep this one close as they push toward saving their head coaches' job. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Louisiana-Monroe</b> +11 South Alabama</div><div>While they have yet to play in a bowl game and their overall record is just 10-18, the Warhawks have become a tough out, especially at home under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terry_Bowden" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">Terry Bowden</span></a>. The Warhawks have mostly rolled over against the Power Five opponents they have faced (1-4 ATS with the closest loss coming by thirteen points), but they have scared more than their fair share of Sun Belt and other Group of Five foes. Including last week's near miss against Appalachian State, the Warhawks are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog with five outright wins. One of those outright upsets came two years ago against these same Jaguars. The Warhawks entered as a nearly two touchdown home underdog, but <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2021-10-23-louisiana-monroe.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">prevailed 41-31</span></a>. In fact, South Alabama has yet to beat the Warhawks in Monroe, posting an 0-4 all-time record. The <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#sun-belt" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">co-favorite in the Sun Belt West</span></a>, the Jaguars have had a weird season. They dominated Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but lost at home the following week to Central Michigan. The Jaguars already have a conference loss, so if they have any designs on playing in their first Sun Belt Championship Game, they must win here. However, the series history and Monroe's track record as a home underdog make them the play. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Iowa State </b>+6.5 TCU</div><div>When handicapping a game, especially a conference game, one of the things I like to look at is the series history. TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012 and the Horned Frogs and Cyclones have played each season. TCU has a slight straight up edge, winning six of the eleven games. However, the Cyclones have dominated this series in terms of ATS, going 8-2-1 against the betting market. The numbers are especially pronounced in games played in Ames. Iowa State is 3-2 straight up, with wins in each of the last three game and a perfect 5-0 ATS. As previously mentioned, TCU has covered only two times in this series and both of those covers came in regular season finales featuring playoff caliber TCU teams (2014 and 2022) against Iowa State teams that finished with losing records. Iowa State is 10-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Campbell_(American_football_coach)" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Matt Campbell</span></a> and has not lost to TCU in Ames since 2015. This Horned Frogs team is good, but not up to the standards of the 2014 and 2022 edition. Take the Cyclones to cover and don't be surprised if they make it four straight against the Horned Frogs in Ames. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-68214085208802493732023-09-28T03:38:00.003-07:002023-09-28T03:38:43.596-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week V<div>Another losing week which makes three in four weeks. We'll try and close September strong and do better the rest of the way. </div><div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 3-4</div><div>Overall: 12-15-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh60Jf9Ltr3hVR1l8qLyhImBSIeDAkMLB5S9jidlk6hNZpIuuzbl3GEjURVb44b437s916s1f_Wejd2VxG_M1yNud0td9saU7YR-DzVMeKmWWpPT3ecNRxXP3a_upgVWswj_acJ2od0SVmUBt3gaeBCRTktpD0qLdDsq8o4PZKnUh-zmOhaLqN2/s320/seven.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh60Jf9Ltr3hVR1l8qLyhImBSIeDAkMLB5S9jidlk6hNZpIuuzbl3GEjURVb44b437s916s1f_Wejd2VxG_M1yNud0td9saU7YR-DzVMeKmWWpPT3ecNRxXP3a_upgVWswj_acJ2od0SVmUBt3gaeBCRTktpD0qLdDsq8o4PZKnUh-zmOhaLqN2/s1600/seven.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Akron</b> -2.5 Buffalo</div><div>Through a month of the 2023 regular season and most of non-conference play, it is clear there are three good teams in the MAC: Miami, Ohio, and Toledo. Everyone else is some level of trash. Both the Zips and Bulls fit that description. Buffalo is winless, having <a href="https://www.hustlebelt.com/2023/9/10/23866345/buffalo-bulls-fordham-rams-football-game-recap-stats-score-september-9-2023" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">lost at home to an FCS team</span></a>. Akron has a victory, but it came against an FCS team and was <a href="https://www.hustlebelt.com/2023/9/10/23866374/akron-zips-vs-morgan-state-bears-football-game-recap-score-stats-september-9-2023" target="_blank"><span style="color: #bf9000;">downright miraculous</span></a>. This is a momentous occasion for Akron as it marks the first time the Zips have been favored against an FBS team since 2020 (they won that game <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401249881" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">in blowout fashion</span></a> BTW). Normally, I would be hesitant to back a team in a role they are not accustomed to, but Akron has been nearing a breakthrough since MAC play started last season. The Zips finished 1-7 in conference play last season, but five of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less. That trend has continued thus far in the early going as the Zips lost tight games to Temple and Indiana. Neither the Owls nor the Hoosiers will be making an appearance in the College Football Playoff, but both are better than your average MAC team. And Buffalo is no average MAC team. The Bulls have been atrocious on defense this season, allowing nearly 45 points per game against a non-conference slate that featured just one Power Five opponent. Not only do the Bulls have one of the worst defenses in the country, they are also at a significant disadvantage at head coach. The Bulls are coached by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Linguist" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Maurice Linguist</span></a>, a young black man (which college football needs more of at this particular position), but he coaches like an old white man. In their loss to Fordham, the Bulls faced fourth and two from the Fordham 37 (in a game where the Bulls had already scored 37 points). Linguist trotted his admittedly good kicker out to try a 54-yard field goal and you can guess how that turned out. I think the struggling Akron offense will get right in this spot and Linguist will be one step closer to joining the unemployment line. </div><div><br /></div><div>Florida +1 <b>Kentucky</b></div><div>Kentucky is 4-0 for the third consecutive season and just outside the latest AP poll. A victory against the Gators would likely move the Wildcats into the poll for the fourth consecutive season (the AP Poll from 2020 <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2020-08-24/how-ap-college-football-poll-will-work-2020" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">was weird</span></a>, but the Wildcats were in it before their first game). The Wildcats have been impressive against their soft early slate, outscoring their first four opponents by a combined 90 points. The best victory amongst that quartet is either last week's road win against Vanderbilt or their home win against Akron. Which is to say, their schedule thus far has not been nearly as taxing as Florida's. The Gators lost to Utah in their opener and looked all kinds of <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/08/31/florida-takes-penalty-against-utah-for-2-players-wearing-same-number/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">undisciplined</span></a>, but they have rebounded to win three in a row, including a home victory against Tennessee. After breaking a 31-game losing streak to the Gators in 2018, the Wildcats have won three of five in this series, with two of those victories coming in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Hill_Griffin_Stadium" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">The Swamp</span></a>. Of course, the flip side to that means the Wildcats have beaten Florida in Lexington just once (2021) since 1986. In their three recent victories, the Wildcats pulled outright upsets. They are in an unusual position, entering the game as favorites. I like to fade teams facing unusual circumstances. I think the Gators are a good play in this spot, especially with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Napier" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Billy Napier's</span></a> success as a road underdog. During his time at Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida, Napier's teams are 11-4-1 ATS as a road underdog with six outright wins. Make it lucky number seven on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Houston +8.5 <b>Texas Tech</b></div><div>Texas Tech came into the 2023 season riding a four-game winning streak to close 2022. Some fancied the Red Raiders as a <a href="https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/07/20/heather-dinich-names-texas-tech-a-dark-horse-for-cfp-in-2023/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">darkhorse team</span></a> in the Big 12. Their opener at Wyoming was tricky, especially with Pac-12 contender Oregon coming to Lubbock the next week. Texas Tech seemed to be clicking as they scored the first 17 points and looked to be on their way to a blowout victory. They would score just three more points in regulation as the offensively challenged Cowboys tied the score and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=401525825" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">won in overtime</span></a>. Undaunted by the setback, Texas Tech battled Oregon to the bitter end before losing 38-30 on a late defensive score. They handled their business against Tarleton State of the FCS and opened Big 12 play against West Virginia last week with their goals of a Big 12 title still in front of them. Then quarterback Tyler Shough got hurt and the offense mustered just 13 points in a loss to the Mountaineers. At 1-3, the Red Raiders will have their work cut out for them to qualify for a bowl, much less match last year's win total. The Red Raiders are rightly favored at home against a mediocre at best Houston team. However, ten points is too much for a team that will probably struggle to score a lot of points the remainder of the season <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38493803/surgery-end-tyler-shough-regular-season-texas-tech" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">without Shough</span></a>. In limited action against Tarleton State and West Virginia, his backup, Behren Morton has completed less than half his passes and averaged about four and a half yards per throw. If you are laying more than a touchdown, the team you are betting on probably needs to get to 30 points, and I don't see Texas Tech doing that. In addition, while Houston has performed poorly under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_Holgorsen" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Dana Holgorsen</span></a> overall ATS, the one role they have excelled in has been a road underdog. In that spot, they are 8-4 ATS. These teams have played non-conference games each of the past two years (with Texas Tech winning both), but the spreads were much tighter (even and four points). This one should be less than a touchdown as well. </div><div><br /></div><div>Arkansas State +1 <b>Massachusetts</b></div><div>Is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butch_Jones" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Butch Jones</span></a> about to save his job? More precisely, is a freshman quarterback going to help Butch Jones save his job? After offensive no-shows against Oklahoma and Memphis (three combined points) and passing struggles versus Stony Brook, Jones turned the quarterbacking duties over to freshman Jaylen Raynor. Raynor only aired it out six times against the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stony_Brook_Seawolves_football" target="_blank"><span style="color: #134f5c;">Sea Wolves</span></a>, but he passed for 78 yards and got the start for the Red Wolves in their conference opener against Southern Miss. Raynor was not efficient through the air against Southern Miss (completed slightly more than half his passes), but he hit big plays, averaging over eleven yards per throw. He also ran well, rushing for nearly 100 yards on 17 carries. The Red Wolves needed every bit of it since their defense allowed 37 points. The defense has been bad for the duration of Jones' tenure and things don't appear to be changing. If the Red Wolves are to compete for a bowl bid, they will have to outscore teams. Raynor should have another good game against a Massachusetts defense that has been carved up all season. The Minutemen held Eastern Michigan to 19 points (and yet still lost), but their other four FBS opponents have averaged 41 points per game against them. The Minutemen may also not be in a good place mentally after last week. They staged a second half rally to tie New Mexico and send the game to overtime, where they eventually lost thanks to a controversial pass interference call. Head coach Don Brown was so upset he got an <a href="https://www.mwcconnection.com/2023/9/26/23890364/lobos-pull-off-ot-win" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">unsportsmanlike conduct penalty</span></a>. The Minutemen have dropped four in a row after their road victory against New Mexico State in Week Zero. I think the Red Wolves make it five in a row on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Ole Miss</b> +2.5 LSU</div><div>After last week's loss to Alabama, Ole Miss has now dropped eight in a row to the Crimson Tide after beating them in back to back years (2014 and 2015). The Rebels were held to 301 total yards and averaged under five yards per play for just the sixth time under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lane_Kiffin" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Lane Kiffin</span></a> (Alabama responsible for three of those occurrences). The good news for the Rebels is moving the ball should not be a problem this week against LSU. The Tigers had an average SEC defense last season, <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/05/2022-yards-per-play-sec.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">ranking sixth</span></a> in yards allowed per play and early returns against good offenses do not portend much improvement. Florida State averaged nearly seven and a half yards per play against the Tigers (for comparison, the Seminoles averaged five and a half yards per play in their <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401525507" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">victory against Clemson</span></a>) and Arkansas averaged more yards per play against the Tigers (6.26) than they did against Western Carolina, Kent State, or BYU. It took a virtuoso performance from Jayden Daniels for LSU to eke out the victory. Beginning with their penultimate drive of the first half, LSU scored on their final six possessions (two field goals and four touchdowns) and managed to beat Arkansas at home by three points. LSU has won five of their last nine trips to Oxford, but any time in recent history when the Rebels have fielded a quality team, they have managed to knock off the Tigers at home. The Tigers victories in Oxford post Nick Saban came in 2005, 2007, 2011, 2017, and 2019. LSU was national championship caliber in both <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/louisiana-state/2011.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f1c232;">2011</span></a> and <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/louisiana-state/2019.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #fcff01;">2019</span></a>, but in those five seasons, Ole Miss did not finish better than 6-6. The Rebels managed victories in 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2021. Their worst record in that quartet of years was 8-5. This a good Ole Miss team playing at home against a bad defense. Take the <a href="https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Lane-Kiffin-head-coach-Ole-Miss-Football-makes-official--140036738/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Lane Train</span></a> to victory junction. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Southern Miss</b> +6 Texas State</div><div>Texas State is halfway toward qualifying for their first bowl game as an FBS team. The Bobcats finished bowl-eligible in 2013 and 2014 under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Franchione" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Dennis Franchione</span></a> but were not selected. With the glut of bowl games on the docket a decade later, that will probably not be a problem if Texas State gets to six wins in 2023. While the Bobcats are halfway home when it comes to getting to six wins, Southern Miss has yet to beat an FBS team and is riding a three-game skid after their season-opening victory over Alcorn State. On paper, Texas State appears to be the much stronger team, having outscored their first four opponents by about two touchdowns per game. Meanwhile, Southern Miss has been outscored by about the same margin through their first four games. However, this is where schedule strength needs to be taken into account. Texas State has beaten Baylor (who is probably not as good as we thought in the preseason), but their other games have come against an underachieving UTSA, <a href="https://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/jackson-state/2022/12/04/deion-sanders-hired-colorado-job-jackson-state-football-swac-championship/69697442007/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">Jackson State sans Deion</span></a>, and Nevada (winless thus far in 2023). Meanwhile, Southern Miss has faced the previously mentioned Alcorn State, but also Florida State and Tulane. They did lose at Arkansas State last week, but the Seminoles and Green Wave are far better than any team Texas State has faced. Texas State has been a road favorite just one other time since Franchione left following the 2015 season. It came in 2020 against a Louisiana-Monroe team that finished winless. The Bobcats are much improved under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._J._Kinne" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">GJ Kinne</span></a>, but they should not be laying close to a touchdown on the road in conference play. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>TCU</b> -12 West Virginia</div><div>On the surface, West Virginia appears to have turned a corner defensively. The Mountaineers allowed 33 points per game last season and after allowing 38 points to Penn State in their opener, have held their past three opponents to 36 total points. However, those three games all deserve a deeper dive. The Mountaineers allowed 17 points to Duquesne, an FCS team. For context, the Dukes have played another FBS opponent (Coastal Carolina) and scored seven points in that game. West Virginia allowed six points to their <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34505831/sights-sounds-return-backyard-brawl" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Backyard Brawl</span></a> rival Pittsburgh. That total does represent the Panthers lowest output on the season, but Pittsburgh has been terribly disappointing offensively. Finally, the Mountaineers allowed 13 points to Texas Tech. However, the majority of that game came against a backup quarterback. The Mountaineers have improved defensively in 2023, but that improvement is not quite as profound as the raw numbers make it appear. While the defense has improved, the offense has averaged just 17 points per game against FBS competition. On the other sideline, TCU has gotten their act together since an <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/401523994" target="_blank"><span style="color: #351c75;">opening loss to Colorado</span></a>. I expected TCU to suffer a significant decline after their charmed run to the national title game last season. While they will likely drop another game or two, they will probably eclipse their preseason win total (7.5) much to <a href="https://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/08/strangers-in-field-viii.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">my chagrin</span></a>. Since losing to Colorado, TCU has not been challenged by Nicholls State or two decent to good FBS teams (Houston and SMU). In fact, if not for two redzone turnovers against Colorado, the Horned Frogs would probably be 4-0 and close to the top ten. West Virginia leads the series 6-5 since both teams joined the Big 12 in 2012 and the Mountaineers have actually won five of the past seven and are 3-2 in Fort Worth. However, most of those games came against the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Patterson" target="_blank"><span style="color: #800180;">Gary Patterson</span></a> version of the Horned Frogs. The team is under new management and Sonny Dykes is 13-6 as a home favorite at SMU and TCU and as long as this spread is below two touchdowns, the Frogs are the play. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-86934768807966466482023-09-21T13:44:00.000-07:002023-09-21T13:44:08.240-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IVLast week we picked some favorites for the first time (four to be exact). And three of them lost outright. We'll try and get back on track this week. Home teams in bold. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 3-4</div><div>Overall: 9-11-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCkUnUk1-bZFmWI3cE9TyC5zEU3LHpFiSdLADVwenby99jHLA_3VQok6adwsXuH0aFAW9IJnAHjwODzvT8U8NXOsAXJBaqbEtS417MApmuag1Fgoj7rH0WNwPz4GD8_bidVFpQvag96M-O5S9R0tEof4lU3O_uAJiUKJTEPahGKv2r6Tpetlqj/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCkUnUk1-bZFmWI3cE9TyC5zEU3LHpFiSdLADVwenby99jHLA_3VQok6adwsXuH0aFAW9IJnAHjwODzvT8U8NXOsAXJBaqbEtS417MApmuag1Fgoj7rH0WNwPz4GD8_bidVFpQvag96M-O5S9R0tEof4lU3O_uAJiUKJTEPahGKv2r6Tpetlqj/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Tulsa +4 <b>Northern Illinois</b></div><div>Alarm bells sounded in my head when I saw this line. I think the wrong team is favored here. First off, we have a MAC school (and one that <a href="https://siusalukis.com/news/2023/9/9/football-takes-down-another-fbs-opponent-topping-northern-illinois-14-11.aspx" target="_blank"><span style="color: #cccccc;">lost to an FCS team</span></a>) laying points against a team from the American. Granted, Tulsa will probably finish near the bottom of the <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#aac" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">American standings</span></a>, but the point remains. In addition, the betting market is undervaluing Tulsa because they have been pounded the past two weeks. The Golden Hurricane have dropped games to Washington and Oklahoma by a combined 82 points. However, the Huskies and Sooners are both ranked in the top 20 of the most recent edition of the AP Poll and are both in the top eleven of <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">ESPN's Football Power Index</span></a> rating system. Unlie Tulsa, Northern Illinois has beaten a Power Five team this season. The Huskies knocked off Boston College in their opener. However, that Boston College team started Emmett Morehead at quarterback before switching to Thomas Castellanos. The infinitely more mobile Castellanos led the Eagles all the way back before they lost in overtime. Starting Morehead in that game may end up costing Jeff Hafley his job if the Eagles are not able to find six wins on their schedule and it is artificially inflating Northern Illinois in the betting market. Finally, the Huskies have been a poor investment as a home favorite. Under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hammock" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Thomas Hammock</span></a>, they are 1-7 ATS in the role. These two teams faced off last season with Tulsa winning (and failing to cover) as about a touchdown favorite. This spread has moved roughly eleven points in the opposite direction in one year. Obviously roughly half of that is accounted for by the change in venue from Tulsa to DeKalb, but I'm shocked the Huskies are favored in this spot. Take the Golden Hurricane to easily cover and win outright. </div><div><br /></div><div>Rice -2.5 <b>South Florida</b></div><div>It takes a lot of guts to back Rice as a road favorite. Head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Bloomgren" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0c343d;">Mike Bloomgren</span></a> is in his sixth season as the private school and the Owls are just 6-22 in true road games. However, those road numbers deserve some context. Six of those games have come against Power Five teams where the Owls were prohibitive underdogs. In road games against similar teams, the Owls have fared better, especially over the past three seasons. Since the start of 2020, the Owls are 4-7 in road conference games. They won't hang any banners for that performance, but it shows the Owls are much more competitive than they were at the beginning of Bloomgren's tenure. And while Rice has seen their share of struggles on the road, South Florida has struggled no matter the venue. Since the start of the 2020 season, the Bulls have <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20211023_TEMPLE@SFLA/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">beaten one FBS team</span></a>. Give them credit for for going 4-0 against FCS foes in that span, but against even the bottom rung of FBS, the Bulls have failed to deliver. They have covered some big numbers at home, including last week against Alabama, but only one of their numerous home losses since 2020 would have covered this small number. You are getting Rice at a discount since South Florida was competitive against Alabama last week in a game the Bulls were extremely motivated for. Will we see the same focus after the Bulls shot their proverbial wad last week against the preeminent college football program of the past fifteen years? I have my doubts. Meanwhile Rice has a shot at getting to a bowl game (<a href="https://attheroost.com/2022/11/26/rice-football-bowl-eligible-top-5-7-team/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">legitimately</span></a>) this season. Including South Florida, there are five or six winnable games left on this slate. Rice has not finished with more than five regular season wins since 2014, but they'll be halfway to bowl eligibility after Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Eastern Michigan +6.5 <b>Jacksonville State</b></div><div>Last week, I faded Eastern Michigan as a home favorite, and what do you know, the Eagles needed a late comeback to beat Massachusetts. Now the Eagles are catching nearly a touchdown against a team playing its fourth game as an FBS team. While the Gamecocks are 2-1, their victories have come against UTEP and East Tennessee State. The Gamecocks scored 49 points against East Tennessee State, but they have managed just 33 total points in their two games against FBS competition. I expect the Gamecocks to slightly exceed that average against a below average Eastern Michigan defense, but the over/under in this game (currently 52.5) implies they will score about 29 points. I don't think they will get to that number. Plus Eastern Michigan has been a veritable ATM as a road underdog under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Creighton" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">Chris Creighton</span></a>. The Eagles are 30-13-1 ATS in the role under Creighton, including 25-6 since 2016. And this is not a function of them covering massive spreads against Power Five opponents. No sir. The Eagles are 23-8-1 as a road underdog against Group of Five opponents (19-3 since 2016) with eleven outright wins. I think the Eagles make it an even dozen on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Sam Houston State +12 <b>Houston</b></div><div>Is Houston bad? The Cougars edged UTSA in their opener, but have lost to Rice and TCU the past two weeks. In the Rice game, they needed to stage a furious rally to force overtime. Against a TCU team that allowed 45 points and 565 yards to Colorado in Fort Worth, the Cougars managed just 266 yards and 13 points in Houston. Their only touchdown came on a kickoff return. Its hard to cover double digits when you can't score. Of course, Sam Houston State has not exactly set scoreboards aflame in their first season as an FBS team. The <a href="https://gobearkats.com/sports/football" target="_blank"><span style="color: #ffa400;">Bearkats</span></a> have covered each of their first two games at the FBS level despite scoring three total points. Off an early bye, I think they score their first touchdown in FBS play and put a scare into Houston. Under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_Holgorsen" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Dana Holgorsen</span></a>, the Cougars have performed poorly as a home favorite, posting a 3-8 ATS record, including 1-6 ATS as a double digit home favorite. The hot seat under Holgorsen will get a little warmer on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Colorado State +3 <b>Middle Tennessee State</b></div><div>Both these teams came close to knocking off unbeaten Power Five opponents. Middle Tennessee hung with Missouri two weeks ago, losing 23-19. Meanwhile, Colorado State allowed Colorado to march the length of the field and force overtime last week in a wild <a href="https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/pac-12-after-dark-01h714r78ny8" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Pac-12 after dark affair</span></a>. If you are playing amateur psychologist, you might think Colorado State will come out flat after losing to their in-state big brother. However, the last five times they fell to the Buffaloes, the Rams have won their next game, including 2018 when they <a href="https://csurams.com/news/2018/9/8/football-rams-knock-off-arkansas-34-27" target="_blank"><span style="color: #38761d;">upset Arkansas</span></a>. After narrowly losing to Missouri, Middle Tennessee pounded Murray State last week. I think that victory and their close loss to the Tigers is artificially inflating the Blue Raiders. Colorado State has not had the chance to pad their numbers against an FCS opponent (they get that opportunity next week). Despite a few mistakes, the Rams seem to have found their quarterback. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has averaged over eight and a half yards per pass against two Power Five defenses. Why he didn't get the start against Washington State is anyone's guess. If Colorado State can avoid the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-sports/ap-stat-watch-colorado-states-penalty-problems-are-not-exclusive-to-their-loss-to-buffaloes/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">bonehead penalties</span></a> that doomed them against Colorado, they should leave Murfreesboro with their first win of the season. </div><div><br /></div><div>Arkansas +17.5 <b>LSU</b></div><div>If these two teams played last week, I think this number would have been under two touchdowns. Consequently, I think there is some value on Arkansas. The Razorbacks lost at home to BYU despite outgaining the Cougars by nearly 150 yards and nearly a yard per play. The Cougars started three scoring drives on the Arkansas side of the field and added another touchdown drive of just 53 yards after a poor punt. Meanwhile, LSU dominated what may wind up being a very bad Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs are transitioning from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_raid_offense" target="_blank"><span style="color: #990000;">Air Raid</span></a> and managed just over 200 total yards against LSU. You need only look back a few weeks to see that LSU's defense is probably not quite that elite. A good, but perhaps not great, Florida State team scored 45 points and averaged nearly seven and a half yards per snap against them. And lest we forget, LSU was a <a href="http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/05/2022-yards-per-play-sec.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">below average SEC defense</span></a> in terms of yards per play last season. No team is as good as they look one week (LSU) or as bad as they look the next (Arkansas). I expect the Razorbacks to rebound and put up a good fight in this spot. Under <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Pittman" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Sam Pittman</span></a>, they are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, including 4-2 ATS as a double digit underdog. In addition, while Arkansas is just 1-2 versus LSU under Pittman, all three games have been decided by a field goal. I expect another close one on Saturday. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Utah State</b> +5.5 James Madison</div><div>I was on Utah State last week and the Aggies were run over by Air Force in a mostly non-competitive game. I think they are in a good spot this week though. James Madison is 3-0 (and 11-3 since joining FBS last season), but their last two victories have come by the skin of their teeth. The Dukes beat Virginia by a point two weeks ago, despite being outgained by the Cavaliers on a per play basis (6.48 to 5.98). They upset Troy by two last week despite being outgained by a similar margin (4.94 to 4.46). The Dukes did not turn the ball over in either game and made all their field goals, while the Cavaliers and Trojans each committed a turnover and the Trojans missed a field goal. Virginia is a Power Five team and Troy <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/sun-belt/2022.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">won the Sun Belt</span></a> and finished ranked in the final AP Poll last season, so the Dukes value is a little inflated. This is also their third consecutive road game before they resume conference play against South Alabama next week. Utah State has been erratic under Blake Anderson, winning their first seven true road games while losing five of their first eight homes games. Even this season, the Aggies held their own against Iowa before crapping their pants against Air Force. This number is too high and James Madison is in a rough situational spot. I'll take Utah State and their high variance to keep this one close. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-23435430750541686412023-09-14T14:59:00.005-07:002023-09-14T14:59:48.171-07:00The Magnificent Seven: Week IIIWe had a decent showing last week, finally winning more than we lost and nearly evening our yearlong record. We'll try and do the same this week. I even managed to find a few favorites to throw on the card. As always, home teams in bold. <div><br /></div><div>Last Week: 4-3</div><div>Overall: 6-7-1</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOshw7jbQ7BJUD8gqtCJJO7ZA-sL0IGp8kQY4wlXSj_i_LAmZPLTHPyJ8p7qH4Nz-Oli43Hw0IeZcb9_s-fsrZptW78mn3J35Bq2FOlQBka0amhWXah6VEbmeJ1DOwTKrlyEtN--dL80z1TSJE9p7dGtQkjMa52YHJ5tsP0_HgfDD0sf0VTBQl/s320/seven%20(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOshw7jbQ7BJUD8gqtCJJO7ZA-sL0IGp8kQY4wlXSj_i_LAmZPLTHPyJ8p7qH4Nz-Oli43Hw0IeZcb9_s-fsrZptW78mn3J35Bq2FOlQBka0amhWXah6VEbmeJ1DOwTKrlyEtN--dL80z1TSJE9p7dGtQkjMa52YHJ5tsP0_HgfDD0sf0VTBQl/s1600/seven%20(1).jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Utah State +9 <b>Air Force</b></div><div>Utah State followed up their surprising <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/mwc/2021.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">2021 Mountain West title</span></a> with a somewhat disappointing campaign. Despite eventually qualifying for a bowl, the Aggies began 2022 by losing four of their first five games, including a <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2022-09-10-utah-state.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">home blowout loss</span></a> to an FCS team. The Aggies won five of seven down the stretch (beginning with a home upset of Air Force) to get to 6-6, but when factoring their bowl loss to Memphis into the equation, they were outscored by more than 100 total points last season. Consequently, <a href="https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2023.html#mtn-west" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">not much was expected</span></a> of them heading into 2023. However, through two games, the Aggies have overachieved. They covered as massive underdogs at Iowa, even outgaining the Hawkeyes in both total yards and yards per play. They then dominated Idaho State of the FCS one week after the Bengals <a href="https://goaztecs.com/news/2023/9/3/football-maydens-big-night-propels-aztecs-past-isu-36-28.aspx" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">played a tight game</span></a> with San Diego State. I don't like to read too much into FCS blowouts, but Utah State scored 78 points last week; the first time they topped 70 since 2018. Coincidentally, the last time they scored at least 70 points, their next opponent was...Air Force. Speaking of the Falcons, while they are 2-0 and have allowed just ten points on the year, they did not look great in a defensive struggle with Sam Houston State last week. I don't expect another defense dominated game this week. The Mountain West began divisional play in 2013 and with the Aggies and Falcons both occupying the former Mountain Division (the conference scrapped divisions this year), they have played each of the past ten years. If we remove the two years when <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/gary-andersen-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #073763;">Gary Andersen</span></a> returned (2019 and 2020), the Aggies have averaged nearly 37 points per game against the Falcons (topping 30 points six times) and have won five of eight. Utah State will score regularly in this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they leave Colorado Springs with an outright win. </div><div><br /></div><div>Indiana +10 Louisville (@ Indianapolis)</div><div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Brohm" target="_blank"><span style="color: #7f6000;">Jeff Brohm</span></a> may have left Purdue, but he has not yet been able to escape his former rivals in Bloomington. During his Purdue tenure, Brohm enjoyed good success in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Oaken_Bucket" target="_blank"><span style="color: #783f04;">Old Oaken Bucket</span></a> rivalry, winning four of five. The last two were not competitive, with the Boilermakers winning by 37 and 14 respectively, but the first three in the series were decided by a touchdown or less. Thanks to their schedule, Louisville was a sleeper team in the ACC heading into 2023. However, they needed a <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2023-09-01-georgia-tech.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">second half surge</span></a> to put away Georgia Tech in the opener. The Yellow Jackets averaged nearly seven yards per play against the rebuilding Louisville defense, their most against a Power Five opponent in nearly two years. The Cardinals rebounded to put the clamps on Murray State last week, but I don't think the defensive issues are solved. Speaking of defense, Indiana may be able to offer something on that side of the ball. Head coach <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Allen_(American_football)" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Tom Allen</span></a> is a former defensive coordinator and after allowing over thirty points per game each of the past two seasons, the Hoosiers held Ohio State to 23 points in the opener. Ohio State was breaking in a new quarterback, but the receiving corp, headlined by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marvin-harrison-jr-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Marvin Harrison Jr.</span></a>, was held in check by the Indiana secondary. This version of Indiana may not be good enough to get back to a bowl, but they can ugly up the game enough to cover some big spreads. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, teams coached by Brohm are much better as underdogs than as favorites. In the regular season, his teams are 21-11 ATS as underdogs and just 13-20 ATS as favorites, including 6-9 as a double digit favorite. Take the Hooisers to keep this one close against their old rival. </div><div><br /></div><div>Iowa State -3 <b>Ohio</b></div><div>I think the betting public is a little too down on Iowa State after their <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/02/iowa-sports-betting-investigation-iowa-state-what-we-know" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">tumultuous summer</span></a>. I think the Cyclones have exceeded expectations somewhat through their first two games. They dispatched Northern Iowa with ease in the opener, which is something previous iterations of this team have not always done. And they lost a defense struggle to Iowa. The Cyclones are 1-6 against Iowa under Matt Campbell, including 0-4 in Ames. Now they are the smallest of favorites on the road against a MAC team in what should be another low-scoring affair. Ohio has put together three solid defensive showings thus far, holding each of their first three opponents to twenty points or less. However, those teams are the habitually low-scoring San Diego State Aztecs, Long Island of the FCS, and Florida Atlantic. Despite the strong defensive performance, the formerly prolific Bobcat offense has sputtered, even with the return of <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kurtis-rourke-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">Kurtis Rourke</span></a> last week. Ohio managed just seventeen points against the Owls and averaged under five yards per play. I don't think their offense will get in gear against an Iowa State defense that held them to ten points <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2022-09-17-iowa-state.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">last year</span></a> and has allowed just two offensive touchdowns through two games. Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State is 6-1 against Group of Five opponents (5-2 ATS) with their <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2020-09-12-iowa-state.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">lone loss</span></a> coming to Louisiana-Lafayette at the beginning of the Covid season. Their five victories have all come by at least thirteen points and two of those victories came on the road. You are getting Iowa State at a solid discount. This spread should be closer to a touchdown and I think Iowa State wins this game handily (two touchdowns or more) a decent percentage of time. </div><div><br /></div><div>Massachusetts +7.5 <b>Eastern Michigan</b></div><div>In the offseason, I <a href="http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2023/04/2022-adjusted-pythagorean-record-mac.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">paid homage to Chris Creighton</span></a> and his success at Eastern Michigan. Creighton has turned the formerly moribund program into a consistent bowl participant in the MAC. He has also beaten his share of Power Five opponents and been great as an underdog. However, one thing he has not done is cover as a favorite. The splits are uncanny. In regular season games as an underdog under Creighton, the Eagles are 41-23-2 ATS (33-10-1 since 2016) with twenty two outright wins. As a favorite in the regular season, the Eagles are 10-16 ATS with eleven outright losses. The Eagles have been particularly bad as a home favorite, going just 5-12 ATS under Creighton with eight outright losses. Their opponent in this game has been a perfect barometer for Eastern Michigan's failure as a favorite. They have faced off each of the past two seasons, with Eastern Michigan being heavily favored in both. They Eagles won each game, but did not cover in either. History seems to be repeating itself in 2023, with the only difference being this Eastern Michigan team might actually be bad. The Eagles needed two kickoff return touchdowns to hold off Howard in their opener and averaged under five yards per play against the Bison. Then, despite their previous bona fides against Power Five teams, the Eagles did not put up much of a fight against Minnesota last week. The Eagles covered, but were never in position to win or put a scare into the Golden Gophers. I expect the Eagles to have their best offensive performance of the season against the porous Massachusetts defense, but the Minutemen have shown enough of a pulse on offense to keep this game within the number. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Louisiana Tech</b> -4.5 North Texas</div><div>I try not to jump to conclusions after one game, but I did last week. I was effusive in my praise of Cal after they dropped 58 points on North Texas in their opener. I expected them to move the ball and upset Auburn last week. The Bears covered, but they <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2023-09-09-california.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #fcff01;">scored ten points</span></a>. After allowing 58 points to Cal, North Texas continued to sully the name of <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeJo02.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: #38761d;">Mean Joe Greene</span></a> by allowing 46 points to Florida International. The 58 points Cal scored marked their high water mark under Justin Wilcox and the 46 points Florida International scored marked their highest point total in the short tenure of Mike MacIntyre. For reference, Louisiana Tech has topped out at 52 points under Sonny Cumbie. Can the Bulldogs get close to that number? I think so. As I mentioned a few lines up, Florida International scored 46 points against North Texas. They did that one week after scoring 14 points against Maine! Louisiana Tech does not play much defense, so I expect a high scoring affair (the over/under is currently at a nice 69), but a few stops are all they should need to cover this number against one of the worst defenses in FBS. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>New Mexico</b> -1.5 New Mexico State</div><div>I don't want to put too much pressure on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Gonzales" target="_blank"><span style="color: #660000;">Danny Gonzales</span></a>, and truth be told, I doubt my readership can turn the heat up on the New Mexico football boosters, but Gonzales probably needs to win this game to keep his job. Two games into his fourth season in Albuquerque, the Lobos are 8-25, with three of those victories coming against FCS opponents. His offenses have been among the worst in college football, averaging under two touchdowns per game in both 2021 and 2022. However, his hire of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryant_Vincent" target="_blank"><span style="color: #274e13;">Bryant Vincent</span></a> (UAB interim coach) as his offensive coordinator and the subsequent transfer of <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dylan-hopkins-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">Dylan Hopkins</span></a> from the Blazers might be enough to keep him employed. It was just an FCS team, but the Lobos scored 56 points against Tennessee Tech last week. It was their most in a game under Gonzales and if the offense can move from atrocious to slightly below average, there are wins to be had on this schedule. New Mexico State, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Nevada, and UNLV populate the remaining schedule. While it may not be feasible for the Lobos to sweep that quintet and get to a bowl, winning four or five games may earn Gonzales another year on the job. Based on early returns, I think the Lobos are the better team, so playing at home, with a spread under a field goal, they are the play. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Arizona</b> -18 UTEP</div><div>Arizona opens Pac-12 play next week with a road trip to Stanford, so there is a potential danger of them looking past UTEP. However, the Wildcats have not posted a winning season since 2017, so I think they will be ready to take care of am overmatched foe at home. Arizona wide receiver, and former UTEP star, <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jacob-cowing-1.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #e69138;">Jacob Cowing</span></a> has yet to really break out in 2023, catching ten balls for just 69 yards through two games. Cowing averaged over twelve yards per reception last season for Arizona and nearly twenty yards per reception for the Miners in 2021. Despite Cowing's disappointing numbers and quarterback Jayden De Laura's inconsistent play, the Wildcats have acquitted themselves well in the early going. They dominated Northern Arizona in the opener (a team that <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2021-09-18-arizona.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">beat them in 2021</span></a>) and went to overtime against an SEC team on the road despite losing the turnover margin by four. While I was high on UTEP in the offseason, they have not been very good through a quarter of their 2023 campaign. They beat a good FCS team at home, but on the road they have managed fourteen and seven points against a team playing their first game as an FBS program and the worst team in the Big 10. How many points are they scoring in Tucson on Saturday night? If they get to seventeen, which I think may be overly optimistic, can they hold Arizona under 35? Maybe De Laura has another big turnover game and keeps the Miners close, but I think he got that out of his system last week (at least for a few games) and the Wildcats will roll in this spot. </div>matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.com0