Statistically Speaking

The Crimson Armada: Where Does 2011 Alabama Stand?

2012-01-14T07:27:00.000-08:00

While calculating my mid-season SDPI ratings back in October, I got the notion that this year's Alabama team could be one of the best college football teams ever. Of course, almost immediately after that post, the Tide lost a tight home game to LSU and seemed doomed to be just another Sugar Bowl champion. After they were written off, all the other challengers faltered and the Tide ended the season ranked number two in the BCS. In the hyped rematch, the Tide dominated LSU and claimed their second BCS Championship in three years. Even with the loss, Alabama still enjoyed a dominant campaign. But how dominant? Where do the Tide rank in terms of recent national champion? To find out, I looked to see how Alabama compared to each national champion since 1993 in four different categories. Why 1993? Its completely arbitrary, but that is when I first began to follow college football.

The first category of dominance I looked at is scoring margin. The following table lists how the past 21 national champions (1997 and 2003 featured two champions) have fared in terms of per game scoring margin.By this measure, Alabama ranked eighth among the 21 teams. Their scoring margin was very good, but not quite ridiculous like that of 1995 Nebraska. Notice that if we take the scoring margin of the two worst teams (2006 Florida and 2002 Ohio State), and add them together, it still does not equal the margin of that Nebraska team. A few other tidbits from the table: Four of the top-eight teams on the chart actually lost a game (1993 Florida State, both Florida teams, and this year's Alabama). I think its a little ironic that the bottom two teams are Ohio State and Florida. As you may recall, Florida beat a solidly favored Ohio State to win the title in 2006.

The second category of dominance is scoring ratio. Scoring ratio is simply the number of points scored divided by the number of points allowed. A team with a ratio of 1 would have scored and allowed the same number of points. While scoring margin tends to favor teams with great offenses, teams with great defenses will fare well in scoring ratio. Here is how the past 21 champions have fared in scoring ratio.When you only allow a shade of eight points per game, your scoring ratio is bound to be pretty good. 2011 Alabama ranks second to the 2001 Miami Hurricanes in terms of scoring ratio and are one of just three teams to have scored more than four times as many points as their opponents. Once again, as in the previous table, a loss certainly does not preclude dominance. Four of the top-six teams (2011 Alabama, 1993 Florida State, 2008 Florida, and 2003 LSU) all lost a game.

The third category of dominance is number of wins by twenty or more points.Alabama ranks very highly by this measure. Ten of their twelve wins came by 20 or more points. The only victims that were able to hold the margin under 20 points were Penn State (16 points) and perhaps surprisingly, Mississippi State (17 points). 1995 Nebraska is tied with 2008 Florida atop the list. The Cornhuskers lone victory by fewer than 20 points in 1995 came against Washington State (14 points).

The final category of dominance is performance away from home. The table below ranks the 21 teams by their road/neutral field scoring margin. Their road/neutral field record is also listed.Once again, the Crimson Tide do not disappoint. Only 1995 Nebraska (sensing a trend?) and 2005 Texas fared better on the road than Alabama. Once again five of the top-eight teams in road scoring margin lost a game (2011 Alabama, 2008 Florida, 2003 LSU, 2003 Southern Cal, and 1993 Florida State). Perhaps more interestingly, 2011 Alabama, 2008 Florida, and 2003 LSU all lost at home! The most surprising number on this chart belong to 2001 Miami. The Hurricanes are widely regarded as one of the best champions of the BCS-era, and they do rank third in scoring margin, first in scoring ratio, and tied for third in wins by 20 or more points. However, their road/neutral field performance ranks only 15th. The Hurricanes struggled mightily in a pair of road games against decent, but hardly dominant conference foes. They beat Boston College 18-7, in a game with a misleading final thanks to a steal of an interception and return by Ed Reed. See below.

They also edged Virginia Tech 26-24. Both of those teams managed 8-4 marks, but neither was a great.

So where does 2011 Alabama rank in terms of champions of the past two decades? For my money, 1995 Nebraska is head and shoulders above everyone else. However, after the Cornhuskers, I think Alabama belongs in the conversation with 2008 Florida, 2005 Texas, 2001 Miami, and 1993 Florida State (a very underrated champion) as the second best champion. And who is the worst? No one team stands completely out, but two certainly do. Its a close race between either 2006 Florida or 2002 Ohio State.

Bowl Preview: Part V

2012-01-08T12:29:00.001-08:00

The Game: BCS National Championship Game
The Teams: Alabama vs LSU
The Line: Alabama -1
I'll say this for LSU, they have impeccable timing. They always seems to save their best teams when the national championship is in New Orleans. See 2003 and 2007. The difference this year though is that the Tigers actually avoided losing any games in the regular season. And what a regular season it was. The Tigers beat the Pac-12 champ (Oregon) at a neutral site, the Big East champ (West Virginia) on the road, and their opponents in this game (Alabama) on the road. Aside from the 9-6 win over Alabama, no opponent came closer than 13 points against the Tigers. Alabama had a similarly dominant season. While they lacked the non-conference scalps procured by LSU (Alabama's best win was at offensively inept Penn State), nine of their eleven wins came by at least 20 points, with the other two coming by 16 and 17 respectively. While it is likely we will see at least one touchdown in this game, it should be low-scoring like their initial encounter. Both these teams were uber-dominant on the defensive side of the ball in 2011. In their eleven games against BCS-conference teams, LSU allowed 12 offensive touchdowns. That's amazing! However, Alabama one-upped them, allowing just six offensive touchdowns in their nine games against BCS-conference teams. Both these teams are clearly the best the nation has to offer this year. LSU has the better scalps, but Alabama has the better statistical profile. Thus, the Tide are my final lock of the bowl season.

Bowl Preview: Part IV

2012-01-02T07:57:00.000-08:00

The Game: Sugar Bowl
The Teams: Michigan vs Virginia Tech
The Line: Michigan -3
Congratulations are in order for Virginia Tech. The Hokies ~~stole~~ earned the ACC’s first ever at-large BCS bid. Did they deserve it? Probably not. However, every game that is not the BCS National Championship Game, be it the Rose Bowl or the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, is nothing more than a glorified exhibition. The powers that be choose who they want to play in those games, and we the public have just three options available to us. To watch, to not watch, or to sort of watch while playing Words With Friends. While the Hokies may not deserve this bowl game, it still presents an intriguing matchup. Virginia Tech suffered two losses all season. Unfortunately, both defeats came at the hands (or paws) of the Clemson Tigers, preventing the Hokies from winning their fifth ACC Championship since joining the conference in 2004. While the Hokies won eleven games, their non-conference schedule was especially soft (Appalachian State, East Carolina, Marshall, and Arkansas State), and their only wins of note in the conference were over Georgia Tech and Virginia. Still, the Hokies were plenty dominant against their soft schedule, finishing with the third-best defense in the ACC and the second-best offense. The Hokies will be taking on a Michigan team making its first BCS bowl appearance since the Rose Bowl following the 2006 season. Michigan lost that game in unflattering fashion, lost the 2007 season opener to Appalachian State, pushed Lloyd Carr out the door, hired Rich Rodriguez, fielded the worst three defenses ever at the school under his watch, and culminated his tenure with a thrashing at the hands of an SEC also-ran. But now the Wolverines appear to be back on the right track under his successor Brady Hoke. The Wolverines maintained the offensive efficiency they developed under Rodriguez (finishing third in the twelve-team Big 10), and also improved their defense (finishing third after ranking last in 2010). The Wolverines also defeated Ohio State for the first time since 2003, though it should be noted the Buckeyes managed just a 6-6 record, so there was no parade. Michigan is probably the better team, but the Wolverines lack of a smooth passing attack has caused them to bog down (see games against Michigan State and Iowa) when facing a strong defense. For that reason, a play on the Hokies to win outright may not be a bad idea.

The Game: Orange Bowl
The Teams: Clemson vs West Virginia
The Line: Clemson -3
Clemson and West Virginia. A rematch of the 1989 Gator Bowl. Can the Mountaineers gain a measure of revenge for the Tigers abuse of Major Harris more than 20 years ago? Eh, maybe the rematch angle is a little overblown, seeing as how the majority of the key players in this game were not even in utero during that game. For Clemson, this Orange Bowl appearance is their first since they won the National Title in 1981 and their first conference title since 1991. After suffering their first losing season since 1998 last year, the Tigers hired a former high school offensive coordinator (Chad Morris) and played at a much faster pace. Add in a stud freshman receiver (Sammy Watkins), an NFL-bound tight end (Dwayne Allen), and a solid quarterback (Tajh Boyd), and voila—the best offense in the ACC. Despite their offensive firepower, the Tigers struggled at the end of the regular season, losing to Georgia Tech, barely escaping Wake Forest at home, getting annihilated at NC State, and struggling to find any semblance of an offense in their annual rivalry game with South Carolina. Then, in the ACC Championship Game, it was suddenly October again. The Tigers mauled Virginia Tech for the second time this season and secured their Orange Bowl bid. West Virginia did not wait quite as long between conference titles, though it must have seemed that way to fans. After three years of Bill Stewart (and just a share of one conference title), the Mountaineers brought in Dana Holgorsen to lead the offense and replace Stewart after this season. However, as to be expected, Stewart did not enjoy being a lame-duck coach, and long story short, Holgorsen took the big job a year earlier than expected. The Mountaineers posted the best offense in the Big East, and won the three-way tiebreaker with Louisville and Cincinnati to take the BCS bowl bid. For the most part, West Virginia won the games they were supposed to, save for a huge upset at the hands of Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Clemson is probably a better team, and should certainly have sufficient motivation in playing in their first-ever BCS bowl game. However, ACC teams are just 2-11 in BCS bowl games. Keep that in mind if you plan on wagering on this game

The Game: Cotton Bowl
The Teams: Arkansas vs Kansas State
The Line: Arkansas -8.5
Win or lose, Kansas State will remain one of the most surprising teams of 2011. After failing to win more than seven games in any season since 2003, the Wildcats already have ten wins and will be clawing for their eleventh against Arkansas. The Wildcats won ten games despite ranking just ninth in the ten-team Big 12 on offense and fifth on defense. Their statistical profile befits a team that went 6-6 or 7-5, not 10-2. How did they do it? For starters, their turnover margin of +13 ranks sixth in the nation. They also added five non-offensive touchdowns and went an amazing 8-1 in one-possession games. That's not to say the Wildcats don't have players. Quarterback Calvin, err Collin Kelin ran for an amazing 26 touchdowns! Klein is somewhat limited as a passer, but the Wildcat offense is built around the running game. Arkansas on the other hand, is built around the passing game. Quarterback Tyler Wilson helped lead the third-best offense in the SEC (behind Alabama and Georgia). Wilson tossed 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions on the year. On paper, this seems like a walk in the park for Arkansas. However, Hogs were below average on defense, finishing ninth in the SEC. Plus, outside of South Carolina, the Hogs don't really have any great wins. Sure they beat bowl teams (Texas A&M, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State), but none of those teams were especially strong. Look for Kansas State to keep this one close, but I don't think they have the firepower to win outright.

The Game: BBVA Compass Bowl
The Teams: Pittsburgh vs SMU
The Line: Pittsburgh -3
SMU and Pittsburgh have quite a bit in common. At least more than you probably think. Both were college football powers in the late 1970's and early 1980's, with Pitt winning a national title in 1976 and SMU finishing in the top-10 in 1981, 1982, and 1984. Both went through serious dips in the 1990’s with Pitt suffering five straight losing seasons from 1992 through 1996. SMU was given the Death Penalty thanks to their cavalier attitudes toward boosters during their run in the early 80’s. They were forced to shutter the program for the 1987 and 1988 seasons. When they returned to playing football in 1989, they endured eight straight losing seasons and did not play in a bowl game until 2009. Both also had ties to the most recent Arizona State coaching search. SMU coach June Jones initially interviewed for the job, and was apparently ready to accept the position until the Sun Devils went in another direction. That direction was due northeast. Pitt coach Todd Graham accepted overtures from the Sun Devils to become their coach and left Pitt after just one season guiding the Panthers. Thus there is quite a bit of drama for a bowl game featuring teams that enter with a combined 13-11 record. Despite their 6-6 mark, Pitt actually performed quite well in Graham’s first and only season at the helm. The Panthers boasted the third ranked offense and second ranked defense in the Big East, but were undone by a poor record in close games (2-4). The Mustangs from SMU seemed poised for a breakthrough season when they upset TCU and beat defending Conference USA champ UCF on consecutive weekends to stand 5-1 in early October. They proceeded to win just two of their final six games, losing in non-competitive fashion to Houston, Tulsa, and Southern Miss (lost by 85 combined points in those games). Surprisingly, SMU has yet to feature the dynamic offense that Jones was known for at Hawaii. The Mustangs ranked just eighth in Conference USA on offense and have yet to finish higher than fourth in any of Jones’ four seasons (cue Frankie Valli) at the helm. Pitt is the better team and should win, but with the turmoil (on both sides) and the motivation factor (SMU would love to knock off a team from a BCS conference) I wouldn’t feel confident taking them to cover here.

The Game: GoDaddy.com Bowl
The Teams: Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois
The Line: Arkansas State -1
Very quietly, Arkansas State has positioned themselves to be a Sun Belt power for at least the next season or two. It started when they hired Hugh Freeze to direct the offense after a disappointing 2009 campaign. The 2009 team finished with the worst offense in the Sun Belt, and hired Freeze to heat things up. The Red Wolves responded by posting the third best offense in the Sun Belt in 2010. However, the team posted a poor record in close games (1-5) en route to a 4-8 finish and head coach Steve Roberts was canned. Freeze was promoted to the top job and the offense continued clicking, this time ranking first in the conference. The defense also improved (ranking first in the conference as well) and the team blitzed through Sun Belt play unbeaten. The Red Wolves became the first Sun Belt team to win ten games in the regular season (joining the 2009 Middle Tennessee State team as the only other Sun Belt team to win ten period). They are also ranked 28th in the latest AP Poll, so with a win here, they could conceivably become the first Sun Belt team to ever be ranked in the top-25 as a Sun Belt member (North Texas was ranked once back in the day). Of course, as is often the case at schools like Arkansas State, success usually means your coach is leaving. Sure enough, Ole Miss tabbed Freeze to become their next coach. Not to worry though, the Red Wolves pulled off one of the biggest coups in finding their next coach when Gus Malzahn agreed to lead the team. Malzahn is an offensive innovator, and while his offense at Auburn struggled in the SEC without Cam Newton, Malzahn’s previous track record at Arkansas and Tulsa indicates the offense should remain in good hands. Arkansas State will be battling a fellow mid-major conference champion in the Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies won the MAC for the first time since 1983 in Dave Doeren's first season as coach. The Huskies were especially good on offense, where they ranked second in the MAC, but much less so on defense, where they ranked just seventh. This is one of the better, more under-appreciated bowl matchups of 2011. It’s a little off the beaten path, but tune in to see a pair of established signal callers, Ryan Aplin of Arkansas State (can we call them the Aplin Dumpling Gang?) and Chandler Harnish of Northern Illinois (a poor man’s Dan LeFevour who was a poor man’s Tim Tebow), running a pair of entertaining offenses. If you feel like making a play, take the Red Wolves in this one.

Bowl Preview: Part III

2011-12-29T14:40:00.000-08:00

The Game: Texas Bowl
The Teams: Texas A&M vs Northwestern
The Line: Texas A&M -10
The Aggies came into the season riding high, ranked eighth in the nation and dreaming about their first Big 12 championship since the days of RC Slocum, Dat Nguyen, and Dante Hall in 1998. The Aggies played well, but were doomed by second half collapses and a poor turnover margin. The Aggies actually boasted the fourth best offense and second best defense in the Big 12, but struggled in close games. Five of their six overall losses came by a combined 17 points. Meanwhile, only one of their six wins came by fewer than 16 points. Alas, those solid peripheral number could not save Mike Sherman's job. However, if the team is motivated, it could mean another year of postseason misery for Northwestern. This bowl game marks the fourth consecutive postseason trip for the Wildcats, but unfortunately the Wildcats have not emerged victorious in a postseason game since winning the 1948 Rose Bowl over Cal. The Wildcats boasted the Big 10's second best offense, behind senior quarterback Dan Persa. However, their defense was among the worst in the conference, ranking ahead of Indiana only. Northwestern beat a single bowl bound team in 2011, upsetting Nebraska in Lincoln. Their other five wins came against Boston College, Indiana, Rice, Minnesota, and Eastern Illinois (IAA). Boston College, Indiana, Rice, and Minnesota combined to post a 12-36 record. Oh, and for good measure, Northwestern also lost to Army. This game is far from a lock, especially with Texas A&M's penchant for second half collapses, but the odds are seriously stacked against Northwestern ending their postseason victory drought.

The Game: Sun Bowl
The Teams: Georgia Tech vs Utah
The Line: Georgia Tech -3
Year Four of the triple option at Georgia Tech looked like it was to be one for the ages at midseason. The Yellow Jackets were 6-0 and averaging 554 yards and 46.5 points per game. Since then, the Jackets have gone just 2-4 while averaging 366 yards and 23.3 points per game. Looking back though, its clear the early barrage of points and yards were accumulated against less than capable defenses. Of the first six victims, Western Carolina is a IAA school, Middle Tennessee State ranked 104th, Maryland ranked 108th, and Kansas ranked 120th (or dead last) in total defense. Only NC State (39th) and North Carolina (40th) were respectable defensive squads. Over the second half of the season, the Jackets faced teams ranked third (Georgia), 14th (Virginia Tech), and 29th (Virginia) in total defense, and only one team (Duke) ranked in the bottom half of the national total defense rankings. The bad news for Georgia Tech is that Utah is pretty good defensively. In league play, the Utes featured the third best defense in the conference, and nationally, they were 30th in total defense. Utah did not get off to a blazing start in their new BCS conference, as they opened Pac-12 play with four consecutive defeats. They did win their next four heading into the regular season finale against Colorado (a team that came into the game with a 2-10 record). A win against the Buffaloes would have sent the Utes to the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game for a shot at the Rose Bowl against Oregon. Naturally, Utah lost and UCLA backed into the game. Utah won seven games, but missed out on a special season because their offense was garbage. Starting quarterback Jordan Wynn went down with an injury in the fourth game and has not played since. Without him, the Utes finished dead last in the Pac-12 on offense. Utah's defense should keep them in this game, but methinks Georgia Tech will find a way to win their first bowl game since the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl.

The Game: Liberty Bowl
The Teams: Vanderbilt vs Cincinnati
The Line: Vanderbilt -2
After waiting more than a quarter century between their last two bowl bids, the Vanderbilt Commodores decided an abbreviated postseason drought was more to their liking. Head coach James Franklin is the first Vanderbilt coach to lead the Commodores to a bowl game in his inaugural season. If Vanderbilt can win this game, he would become the first Vanderbilt coach to record a winning record in his first year since Fred Pancoast in 1975. If the Commodores had performed a little better in close games, they would already have a winning record. Vandy lost four games by less than a touchdown, with each loss coming to an SEC school (Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee). By contrast, five of Vandy's six wins came by at least 20 points. On the season, Vanderbilt has outscored their opponents by 73 points, their largest scoring margin since 1974. While Vandy went just 2-6 in the SEC, they are actually betting line favorites over Cincinnati, a team that tied for the Big East championship. The Bearcats rebounded from a poor 2010 season by winning (at least) nine games for the fourth time in five seasons. The Bearcats were not particularly adept on either side of the ball, finishing just below average on offense and defense in the Big East. However, they won the close ones (3-1 in one-score games) and avoided the turnover troubles that plagued them in 2010 (second worst margin in the nation at -15). This spread on this game seems about right. Vanderbilt is better than you think and Cincinnati is a shade worse. Look for the Commodores to win just their third bowl game in school history here.

The Game: Fight Hunger Bowl
The Teams: Illinois vs UCLA
The Line: Illinois -2.5
I know its weird to say, but Illinois actually had the makings of a decent team in 2011. Their defense was tied with Wisconsin as the best in Big 10 play. Their offense was poor, ranking just tenth in the twelve team league, but it wasn't historically bad. One could have reasonably expected a team with their down-to-down profile to win about half their league games. Instead the Illini went just 2-6 in the conference, dropping their final six games and costing Ron Zook his job. The Illini lost those games thanks to the offense's inability to score (averaged just eleven points per game in the skid) and proclivity for turning the ball over (16 turnovers in the last six games). To put the turnover number in perspective, the offense committed nearly twice as many turnovers in the last six games (16) as they scored touchdowns (9). The 1985 Chicago Bears would have had difficulty winning games with an offense like that. Still, in the bowl spirit of rewarding mediocrity, the Illini will get to play a 13th game against a team that has also fired its coach. Rick Neuheisel came to Los Angeles intending to end Southern Cal's death grip on the Pac-10. The Trojans have ceded control of the conference, but not to their cross-town neighbors. Neuheisel leaves Los Angeles with an 0-4 record against the Trojans, with each loss coming by at least 14 points. Miraculously though, his team did 'win' the Pac-12 South thanks to the Trojans' probation and the general ineptitude of the rest of the division. For their 'victory', they received a thrashing at the hands of Oregon, and now head into the bowl season with a 6-7 record. The Bruins become the first team to enter the postseason with a losing record since North Texas in 2001. Of course, that team did at least win its conference. Neither team in this superfluous bowl game is very good, as indicated by their combined 12-13 record. However, when in doubt, take the team that does at least one thing well. Illinois is legit on defense, and should do just enough to win here.

The Game: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
The Teams: Auburn vs Virginia
The Line: Auburn -3
Welcome back to the postseason Virginia! After becoming bowl stalwarts under George Welsh and continuing the run at the beginning of the Al Groh era (15 bowl games in 19 seasons from 1987-2005), the Cavs fell on hard times. Hearkening back to their days at the bottom of the ACC, the Cavs played in just one bowl game from 2006-2010. They had also lost three straight games to Duke entering the 2011 season. To the surprise of nearly everyone, Virginia won twice as many as they lost and were in contention for the Coastal Division title until being thumped by Virgina Tech in their final regular season game. Mike London, winner of a national title as coach of Richmond in 2008, has guided the Cavs to a bowl game in just his second season. The Cavs were probably not as good as their 8-4 record would indicate, as they posted a phenomenal 5-1 record in one-score games. The Cavs seemed to play close games regardless of the competition. Two of their narrow wins were over dregs Indiana and Idaho, while the other games came against decent (Miami) to good (Georgia Tech and Florida State) competition. Speaking of close games, Gene Chizik must have acres of four leaf clovers in his backyard. Since losing to Alabama in the regular season finale of 2009 by a score of 26-21, the Tigers have reeled off eleven straight one possession wins, including seven last season when they claimed the BCS National Championship. They were 3-0 in such games in 2011, helping to explain how they won seven games overall despite being outscored by 61 points on the season. Both teams were pretty average in their respective conferences and appear pretty evenly matched here. That being said, take a flier on Virginia to win this one outright.

The Game: Ticket City Bowl
The Teams: Houston vs Penn St
The Line: Houston -5.5
This is the consolation prize for the Houston Cougars. About a month removed from hosting the Conference USA Championship Game, a win away from a BCS bowl berth, the Cougars must instead settle for a trip to Dallas to take on a Penn State team in disarray. The Cougars are led by their offense, featuring record-breaking quarterback Case Keenum, and a stable of senior wide receivers. Patrick Edwards and Justin Johnson both went over 1000 yards through the air, and if Tyron Carrier has a good game in the Ticket City Bowl (comes in with 914 yards receiving), he would join them, giving the Cougars three 1000-yard receivers for the second time in three seasons (Edwards and Carrier joined James Cleveland as 1000-yard receivers in 2009). Penn State enters this game having lost two of three since an 8-1 start. The Nittany Lions also have their fare share of drama going on off the field. What impact will that have on this game? Its impossible to tell, so lets focus on what we do know. Penn State's offense, particularly their passing offense is bad. As a team, Penn State completed less than half their passes (112th in the nation in completion percentage) and threw just nine touchdown passes (116th in the nation) with four of those coming against Eastern Michigan. The Lions were a little better running the ball, with Silas Redd gaining nearly 1200 yards on the ground. The Lions defense was solid, but far from an elite unit, ranking fifth in the Big 10. Houston is probably better than Penn State, and they should be sufficiently motivated with a chance to finish the season ranked for the first time since 1990. However, in their lone game versus a BCS conference opponent this season, the Cougars narrowly escaped UCLA by a 38-34 score at home. Houston will probably win, but I wouldn't lay the five and a half points.

The Game: Gator Bowl
The Teams: Florida vs Ohio St
The Line: Florida -2.5
This seems like a battle between these two schools' JV squads. With both teams coming into the game with 6-6 records, one will leave with a losing record for the first time in a long time. Florida has not finished with a losing record since they lost (almost) all their games in 1979. Meanwhile, Ohio State last finished below .500 in 1988. This game is being called the 'Urban Bowl' by some even though:
1) Urban Meyer has not coached Florida in a calendar year.
2) Urban Meyer will not coach Ohio State until next September.
3) Urban Meyer will not coach this game.
By this logic, next season when Arkansas hosts Ole Miss, we should refer to it as the 'Nutt Bowl'. What this game possesses in terms of name recognition, it more than makes up for in lack of appreciable football talent. Here's a composite list of the twelve teams these two have beaten: Florida Atlantic, UAB, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Furman, Akron, Toledo, Colorado, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Those twelve victims include just three bowl teams (Vanderbilt, Illinois, and Wisconsin), and only two of those wins came on the road (Kentucky and Illinois). These teams should have been playing in late-December, not early January. That being said, I'll give a slight nod to Florida in this one because the game is in Florida and the Gators appear to have a better defense.

The Game: Outback Bowl
The Teams: Georgia vs Michigan St
The Line: Georgia -3.5
Last season the Outback Bowl hosted a pair of teams (Florida and Penn State) that entered the game with a combined ten losses. While there was certainly some name recognition with the Gators and Nittany Lions, this season the bowl features better teams. Georgia and Michigan State combined to go 14-2 in their respective conferences and have just six losses combined. In fact, as both these were losers in their respective conference title games, they actually had just four combined losses in the regular season. Georgia is no stranger to double-digit wins, having won ten games seven times in the last ten seasons. Michigan State on the other hand, has posted back-to-back seasons of at least ten wins for the first time in program history. In fact, Michigan State has gone a Big 10 best 14-2 in league play over the past two seasons, but has no Rose Bowl (or other BCS bid) to show for it. Ah, the vagaries of a three-way tiebreaker. Michigan State was hardly excellent on either side of the ball, but they were very solid, finishing fourth in the Big 10 (which now was 12 teams) on both offense and defense. Their solid play and a little bit of luck in close games allowed them to win seven games in the conference for the second year in a row. Meanwhile, down south, the Georgia Bulldogs followed up the first losing season of the Mark Richt era with an 0-2 start, putting the current longest-tenured SEC head coach squarely on the hot seat. The Bulldogs responded by riding a relatively easy schedule (no Alabama, Arkansas, or LSU) to ten straight wins. While the schedule certainly made it easier for Georgia to win ten games, it didn’t do it for them. The Bulldogs played very well in their SEC games, finishing a distant third in my SEC SDPI ratings (behind the behemoths at Alabama and LSU). The one thing Mark Dantonio has not done well at Michigan State is win bowl games. The Spartans are 0-4 in bowl games under his guidance, including a loss to Georgia in the state of Florida (though not in this bowl game) after the 2008 season. Look for that trend to continue here with Georgia winning a close one.

The Game: Capital One Bowl
The Teams: South Carolina vs Nebraska
The Line: South Carolina -2.5
South Carolina began the season in the top-10 and despite the best efforts of now-departed quarterback Stephen Garcia, have a chance to finish there for the first time ever. As a resident of Columbia, and part time Gamecock fan (they can sometimes be a little insufferable here), I followed the season closely. Without a doubt, while the Gamecocks have enjoyed an historic season, but it could have been much better had they not squandered a home game against a very beatable Auburn team. That was Garcia’s last hurrah, and a prime example for how not to manage the clock in the two-minute drill. The Gamecocks gave Garcia the boot, or spur (for real this time) and handed the keys to Connor Shaw. Shaw went through some growing pains, as would be expected from an inexperienced player, but the Gamecocks won each game he started save for their trip to Arkansas. For the season, the Gamecocks finished fifth in the SEC on offense (quite an accomplishment considering the injuries and quarterback play) and fourth on defense (behind the impenetrable forces that were Alabama and LSU and to a lesser extent Georgia). The Gamecocks will face a team that also began the year with grandiose expectations. The Nebraska Cornhuskers began the year ranked number ten, but were quickly exposed in their first game against an elite team, losing in grisly fashion to Wisconsin. The Huskers would also lose to Michigan in a similar fashion and in an upset at home to those nerds from Northwestern. For the first time under Bo Pelini, the Huskers were less than elite on defense. The Huskers were middle of the pack in the Big 10 on defense, finishing sixth in the twelve-team league. They were gouged by several teams, most notably in their three losses where they gave up an average of 457 yards and 40.3 points per game. South Carolina appears to be a safe pick to win here. The only thing that would give me pause from picking them is their poor performance in bowl games under Steve Spurrier. The Gamecocks have won just once in five postseason trips under the Ol’ Ball Coach. Not only are they 1-4, but they have actually been favored in every game save for the Outback Bowl versus Iowa following the 2008 season. Still, this Gamecock team seems to be different. Take them to win, but I still don’t quite trust them to cover.

The Game: Rose Bowl
The Teams: Oregon vs Wisconsin
The Line: Oregon -6
This year’s Rose Bowl is the postseason game I am most looking forward to. Both participants boasted their respective league’s strongest offense. Wisconsin, behind transfer Russell Wilson and a stout offensive line ran roughshod over the Big 10, dominating their foes outside of a pair of close to defeats to Michigan State and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Oregon continued their high-octane ways under Chip Kelly. The Ducks cranked out the best offense in the Pac-12 for the sixth season in a row (this is Kelly's fifth season with the team and third as head coach). The Ducks lost just once in league play, against a revitalized Southern Cal team. Ultimately, that loss may have cost them a place in the BCS National Championship Game. Still, the Rose Bowl is not a bad consolation prize. What about defense? Does any team stand a chance at stopping the other, or is this destined to be the highest scoring Rose Bowl ever (surpassing the 1991 game). This may come as a surprise, but Wisconsin actually boasted the best defense in the Big 10 (tied with Illinois). Oregon on the other hand, was hardly a pushover defensively, finishing fourth in the Pac-12, but they were not an elite unit. The last time Oregon came into the Rose Bowl as a solid favorite against a Big 10 team, they left an outright loser, with their offense never quite getting on-track. This game should be tilted in Wisconsin’s favor much more than the six-point spread. For that reason, the Badgers are my fourth lock of the bowl season.

The Game: Fiesta Bowl
The Teams: Oklahoma St vs Stanford
The Line: Oklahoma St -3.5
Oklahoma State was oh so close. Instead of playing for the national championship, the Cowboys will have to settle for their first conference title since 1976 and first outright conference title since 1948! Despite their gaudy record and laundry list of victims, Oklahoma State was somewhat of a house of cards in 2011. They did rank second in the Big 12 on offense, but their defense was just seventh in the conference. They won games with a ridiculous turnover margin. They were second nationally with a +20 turnover margin (behind LSU at +22). They intercepted 23 passes on the year and also recovered an amazing 19 of the 25 fumbles they forced! They will need to force their fair share of turnovers against Andrew Luck and Stanford as the Cardinal should be able to move the ball against the Cowboys. Stanford ranked just a shade behind Oregon on offense in the Pac-12, and actually boasted the conference's top-ranked defense! Both teams should be motivated here, with a chance to finish in the top-3 and perhaps even as high as number two depending on the outcome of the BCS National Championship Game. Since they are getting points, take Stanford to win this one outright if you insist on making a wager.

Bowl Preview: Part II

2011-12-24T17:40:00.000-08:00

The Game: Military Bowl
The Teams: Toledo vs Air Force
The Line: Toledo -3
Air Force is playing in their fifth straight bowl under head coach Troy Calhoun, and for the second straight year, the Falcons won the coveted Commander in Chief Trophy by beating the other two service academies (Army and Navy). In fact, Air Force is the lone service academy represented in this year's postseason. Unfortunately for Air Force, while the schedule was conducive for a very special season, the Falcons lost to every bowl team they played (Boise State, Notre Dame, San Diego State, TCU, and Wyoming), and ended the regular season tied for the fewest wins of the Calhoun era. The Falcons will take on another team that narrowly missed taking flight, the Toledo Rockets. Toledo lost close non-conference games at Ohio State and Syracuse (the latter in a game there the officials failed to make the correct ruling when the Orange missed a crucial extra point). The Rockets rolled through the MAC at 7-1, but their lone loss came in a nailbiter to Northern Illinois, so they lost out on the MAC West tiebreaker and were forced to watch as the Huskies won the MAC championship against Ohio. Toledo had the best offense in the MAC and one of the better mid-major offenses in the nation. Look for the Rockets to get their share of big plays and win a very high-scoring game.

The Game:Holiday Bowl
The Teams: Texas vs Cal
The Line: Texas -3
The two combatants in this year's Holiday Bowl have a great deal in common. Both missed bowl games last season for the first time under their respective coaches (Cal did not play in a bowl in Jeff Tedford's first season because they were ineligible for the postseason). Both teams boast strong defenses (Texas had the best defense in the Big 12 this year and Cal had the second best in the Pac-12). Both offenses are below average. Texas ranked eighth in the ten-team Big 12, while Cal was a more passable sixth in the Pac-12. Finally, both teams lost numerous times to teams that are currently ranked. Three of Cal's five losses came to teams in the current AP top-10 (number four Stanford, number five Southern Cal, and number six Oregon). Four of Texas' five losses came to teams in the current AP top-20 (number three Oklahoma State, number eleven Kansas State, number fifteen Baylor, and number nineteen Oklahoma). Thus, while both teams have combined for ten losses, this matchup may be better than it seems on the surface. Go with the Golden Bears in a defensive struggle.

The Game: Champs Sports Bowl
The Teams: Florida State vs Notre Dame
The Line: Florida State -3
Before the season began, if I told you the Irish and Seminoles were renewing old acquaintances in the postseason, you probably would have assumed it was a BCS bowl. While both teams failed to live up to their preseason hype (yet again), they remain two very strong teams. Consider: Florida State lost four games. Their four losses came by 21 total points. Six of their eight wins came by more than 21 points. Two of their losses came to teams currently ranked in the top-20 (Clemson and Oklahoma). Meanwhile, Notre Dame also lost four games. While two of their losses were by more than a touchdown, they did come to teams currently ranked in the top-5 (Stanford and Southern Cal). Five of their eight wins came against bowl teams, including beatdowns of Michigan State, Purdue, and Air Force by a combined 72 points. Both these teams should be highly ranked in the preseason next year and may be able to actually live up to expectations (for real this time). In the interim, take the Seminoles to win here.

The Game: Alamo Bowl
The Teams: Baylor vs Washington
The Line: Baylor -9
RG3, or Robert Griffin the Third, has barely had time to polish off his Heisman before heading down to San Antonio to take on the Washington Huskies. Griffin's phenomenal season helped lead Baylor to their first nine-win regular season since 1980, when a certain Samurai was intimidating opposing ball-carriers. Make no mistake, Griffin, and his fellow playmakers on offense, receiver Kendall Wright (101 catches, 1572 yards, 13 touchdowns) and running back Terrance Ganaway (1347 rushing yards, 19 rushing touchdowns) are the main reason for Baylor's success. The Bears ranked number one in the Big 12 on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, they also ranked dead last in the conference on the other side of the ball (yes, even worse than Texas Tech and Kansas). The Bears were quite fortunate to win nine games, as they managed a solid 4-1 record in one-score games. Remember, despite their much ballyhooed wins over Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas, the Bears also needed overtime to escape a terrible Kansas team. It's precisely for that reason that I wouldn't be very comfortable taking Baylor to cover in this game. The Bears nearly meet the double-digit favorite criteria previously mentioned in Part I of the bowl preview (they are just 9-17 ATS since the 2005 bowl season). Washington is an average Pac-12 team, neither great not awful on either side of the ball, but if you are feeling lucky, take them to win this game straight up. The last Heisman winner from a team not playing in the BCS National Championship Game brought his team into the bowl season as a heavy favorite, but left with a straight-up loss.

The Game: Armed Forces Bowl
The Teams: BYU vs Tulsa
The Line: BYU -2
Tulsa may be the best four-loss team in the nation. And they are without a doubt, the best four-loss mid-major. The four teams the Golden Hurricane have lost to (Boise State, Houston, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) have a combined six losses between them, and all are currently ranked in the top-20. Against the other eight teams they played, Tulsa was absolutely dominant, winning just once by fewer than 17 points. While their victims were relatively weak, only SMU and Marshall are bowl bound, their dominance is still indicative of a good team. Their opponent in the Armed Forces Bowl, BYU, has won eight of nine since a 1-2 start, with the lone loss coming to red-hot TCU. The Cougars have been a completely different team since Riley Nelson took over at quarterback in their fifth game against Utah State. In the six games started by Nelson, the team has averaged 484 yards per game. In the six games started by Jake Heaps, the team has averaged just 338 yards per game. Nelson also threw for more yards than Heaps despite nearly 100 fewer pass attempts! If Nelson had started from the beginning, the Cougars could have positioned themselves for a BCS-bowl bid. As it is, they must settle for a potential ten-win season (would be their fifth in seven years under head coach Bronco Mendenhall). To me this game is a toss-up, and Tulsa is criminally underrated. Take the Golden Hurricane to pull off the straight-up win here.

The Game: Pinstripe Bowl
The Teams: Rutgers vs Iowa State
The Line: Rutgers -2
Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads is on the verge of accomplishing something very special in just his third season in Ames. With a win in the Pinstripe Bowl, he would tie former coach Dan McCarney for the school record in bowl wins. Granted, it would only be his second, but the Cyclones have been playing football for 114 years, so that would still be pretty special. While Rhoads is just 18-19 in his three seasons at the school, I would argue he has done more with less than most coaches in college football. His charges routinely pull off at least one huge shocker per season. In 2009, Iowa State won as twenty point underdogs against Nebraska in Lincoln (first win there since 1977). In 2010, they helped throw dirt on Texas' season when they won in Austin as twenty point underdogs. This season, they not only helped bring about the rematch no one outside of Dixie wanted when they beat Oklahoma State as a nearly four-touchdown underdog, but they also put Tommy Tuberville on the hot seat when they won against Texas Tech in Lubbock as (merely) fifteen point underdogs. The Cyclones have been money in the bank under Rhoads as double-digit underdogs. In his three season, the Cyclones are 10-5 Against the Spread (ATS) in such situations. Unfortunately, in the showdown with Rutgers, the Cyclones are only a small underdog. After missing out on a bowl game last season, the Scarlet Knights are back in the postseason for the sixth time in seven seasons. The Knights boasted the best defense in the Big East this season, and if not for their offensive struggles (sixth out of eight Big East teams in that category) could have represented the league in the Orange Bowl. Iowa State doesn't do anything well, except for cover large spreads and get up for big games. Rutgers plays fantastic defense and is playing this one pretty close to home. The Scarlet Knights are my third lock of the bowl season.

The Game: Music City Bowl
The Teams: Mississippi State vs Wake Forest
The Line: Mississippi State -7
As a life-long Wake Forest fan, I think I am qualified to weigh in on just how unusual this season has been. The Deacons won five games in the ACC, representing the fourth time in head coach Jim Grobe's eleven seasons that they have at least broken even in conference play (a much greater accomplishment than that may seem). The Deacons beat bowl teams Florida State and NC State at home, hung tough with the eventual ACC champ Clemson in Death Valley, and even gave Notre Dame a run for their money. They also lost to Syracuse, and were destroyed by a pair of mediocre bowl teams (North Carolina and Vanderbilt) by a combined margin of 59 points. In league play, the Deacons were not very good on either side of the ball, finishing ninth in the conference on offense and eleventh (second to last) on defense. While Wake enjoyed an unusual season, Mississippi State's was resoundingly disappointing. Some believed the Bulldogs were a sleeper in the tough SEC West. The Bulldogs proved that they could beat the dregs of the conference (Kentucky and Ole Miss), the dregs of IA (Memphis and UAB), and a IAA school (Tennessee-Martin), but not much else. Their lone win over a team with a winning record came in overtime at home against Louisiana Tech. To be fair, five of their six losses did come to teams currently ranked in the AP top-20, but outside of a 14-12 defeat at the hands of South Carolina, none were particularly close. Mississippi State is probably the better team, but not by much.

The Game: Insight Bowl
The Teams: Oklahoma vs Iowa
The Line: Oklahoma -14
After beginning the season as the AP Preseason number one team, a holiday trip to the Insight Bowl has to be a little disappointing for Oklahoma fans. The Sooners failed to qualify for a BCS bowl after losing two of their final three games; to Baylor for the first time ever and to Oklahoma State for the first time since 2002. Still, its not like the Sooners were a bad team. They ranked third in the Big 12 on both offense and defense, and were probably the league's best team, but were undone by a poor turnover margin in conference play. This wasn't a typical Bob Stoops' Oklahoma juggernaut, but they were pretty damn good. The Sooners will be taking on Stoops' alma mater in the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes were pretty average in 2011. In their ten games against BCS conference opponents (eight conference games and non-conference clashes with Iowa State and Pittsburgh), the Hawkeyes scored 265 points and allowed 255. Not surprisingly, they went 5-5 in those games. The Hawkeyes best performance of the year was easily their home upset over Michigan in early November. However, outside of that game, there are not a lot of beefy wins on the schedule. Oklahoma fans can take heart that the Sooners are 3-1 in non-BCS bowl games under Stoops. However, betting this game and its double-digit margin would not be advisable.

Bowl Preview: Part I

2011-12-13T05:46:00.000-08:00

The bowl season is an entertaining way to end the college football season. While it may not be a perfect way to crown a champion, it does allow hardcore football junkies like myself to get their fix for another three weeks. With that in mind, Statistically Speaking will preview all 35 bowl games over the coming days and give you the five biggest locks of the bowl season. Enjoy these 35 games. There won't be anymore until late August.

The Game: New Mexico Bowl
The Teams: Temple vs Wyoming
The Line: Temple -7
After enduring nearly three decades of ineptitude after their win in the Garden State Bowl following the 1979 season, the Temple Owls have miraculously risen from the dead. This season marks their third straight with at least eight wins. The rejuvenation began under Al Golden, now the head man at Miami, and continued under first-year coach Steve Addazio. The Owls were lead by their defense, which was the second best in the MAC behind Kent State. They pitched two shutouts on the season (versus Ball State and Buffalo) and held the Maryland Terrapins to just seven points. The Owls will seek their first bowl win since 1979 against a Wyoming team that surprised many by winning eight games in the regular season. The eight wins were their most since 1998, and a win in this bowl would give then the most wins since a certain mustachioed spread-offense trailblazer was stalking the sidelines. While the 'Pokes do own eight wins, they actually failed to outscore their opponents on the season (scoring and allowing 324 points). Five of their eight wins came against either IAA teams (Weber State and Texas State) or against the dregs of IA (Colorado State, New Mexico, and UNLV). Wyoming was also 5-0 in one-score games, while each of their defeats came by at least eleven points. The close game phenomenon has become something of an odd-year quirk under head coach Dave Christensen. In his first season (2009), the Cowboys went 6-0 in one-score games en route to a New Mexico Bowl win for a 7-6 mark. Last season, the Cowboys were just 2-3 in one-score games and fell to 3-9. Christensen better carry his lucky rabbit's foot with him because Temple appears to be the better team. Wyoming's special season is more a function of a fantastic turnover margin and close game randomness than anything else. Temple should win this game, but there are much better games to wager on.

The Game: Idaho Potato Bowl
The Teams: Utah State vs Ohio
The Line: Utah State -3
At 7-5, the Utah State Aggies have clinched their first winning season since 1996. The Aggies enjoyed or endured depending on your point of view, one of the stranger seasons by a mid-major in quite sometime. They opened the season, you may remember, by nearly beating Auburn in Jordan Hare. They followed that up with more late game failures, in losing to Colorado State, BYU, and Louisiana Tech by a combined eleven points. In between, they crushed IAA Weber State and bowl bound Wyoming by a combined 81 points, so despite a very good scoring margin, they stood just 2-5 after seven games. After that, they didn't play quite as well in the meat of their WAC schedule after their starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton was injured against Hawaii, but they won their final five games, with none coming by more than seven points (total margin in those five games of 19 points). Adam Kennedy replaced Keeton for the final four and a half games and performed quite well. Against their WAC brethren, the Aggies were good on offense, but a shade below Nevada and Fresno State, and good on defense, but a shade below Louisiana Tech and Nevada. The Aggies will head to Idaho attempting to win just their second bowl game ever against the Ohio Bobcats. The rebuild under Frank Solich is in its seventh season and going quite well. The Bobcats played in their third MAC Championship Game under Solich and fell by three on a last second field goal to Northern Illinois. That loss, coupled with their three bowl defeats under Solich and two under Bill Hess in the 1960's mean the Bobcats are still waiting on their first postseason win. This is probably their best chance. The Bobcats have their best offense yet under Solich. Compared to their MAC brethren, the Bobcats have only been above-average on the offensive side of the ball one other time in the Solich-era (that was 2006). That offense was less than a quarter of one standard deviation above-average. This season, led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Tettleton (Mickey's son) and senior receiver LaVon Brazill, the Bobcats were three quarters of one standard deviation above average. This is hardly a lock, but if you must wager on this game, take the Bobcats straight up.

The Game: New Orleans Bowl
The Teams: San Diego State vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Line: San Diego State -5
After going to just one bowl game from 1992-2009, the Aztecs will be playing in their second straight down in the Big Easy. Brady Hoke may have headed east to Michigan, but he left a solid foundation for Rocky Long. Long, you may remember, is no stranger to postseason games, having led New Mexico to five of them in eleven seasons as head coach. In the past two seasons, only two players have rushed for more yards than San Diego State running back Ronnie Hillman. LaMichael James of Oregon is first at 3377 yards. Bobby Rainey of Western Kentucky is second with 3344 yards. Hillman has 'just' 3188 yards in the past two seasons (oh, and he is only a sophomore). San Diego State will be taking on the Ragin' Cajuns from Louisiana-Lafayette, who are making their maiden postseason voyage this season. Under first-year head coach Mark Hudspeth the Ragin' Cajuns boasted the second-best offense in the Sun Belt and were involved in a number of high-scoring affairs. Five times in their twelve games, the Ragin' Cajuns and their opponents both netted at least 30 points (3-2 record in those games). And lest you think Mr. Hudspeth is a one-year wonder at Lafayette, keep in mind he had a pretty successful seven-year run at Division II North Alabama. The Lions went 66-21 in his seven seasons, with four postseason appearances and a pair of trips to the national semifinals. This should be one of the more entertaining matchups of the bowl season. And since the Ragin' Cajuns are playing in their home state, they wouldn't be a bad play straight up.

The Game: Beef O'Brady's Bowl
The Teams: FIU vs Marshall
The Line: FIU -4
After winning a share of the Sun Belt championship last season, in just their ninth year of playing football (and seventh year in IA), much was expected in of FIU in 2011. I think its fair to say they disappointed a little. While they did set a school record with eight wins, they actually finished in fourth place in the Sun Belt, behind Arkansas State, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana-Lafayette. The problem was the offense. After boasting both the second-best Sun Belt offense and defense in 2010, the offense regressed to second-to-last in 2011. The defense remained strong, falling to just third in the conference. Meanwhile, Marshall will be playing in their second bowl game in three seasons under second-year coach Doc Holliday. While the Herd are bowl bound at 6-6, they hardly qualify as a good team. They were outscored by nearly 100 points over the course of the season, and five of their six wins came by a touchdown or less. The Thundering Herd did somehow manage to defeat Southern Miss (Conference USA champion) and Louisville (Big East co-champ also beaten by FIU). However, their other four wins came against Rice, UAB, Memphis, and East Carolina (combined record of 14-34). Marshall was equally unimpressive in their ranking amongst Conference USA schools, finishing tenth in the conference on offense and eighth on defense. This game is in Florida and appears to be a pretty solid mismatch. For this reason, FIU is my first lock of the bowl season.The Game: Poinsettia Bowl
The Teams: TCU vs Louisiana Tech
The Line: TCU -10.5
It's not quite the Rose Bowl they played in last year, but the Poinsettia is still a red flower, and TCU still enjoyed a very good season. Win or lose, they should finish the season ranked for the fourth straight season. A fourth straight season in the top-10 is a long shot, but at least within the realm of possibility. TCU has run off seven straight wins after a lackluster 3-2 start that included losses to fellow Texas private schools Baylor and SMU. During the win streak, the Horned Frogs upset Boise on the smurf turf, a loss that may have cost the Broncos a shot at the national title. The Frogs defense, which was torched on the opening Friday night of the season by eventual Heisman Trophy winner RG3, has returned to prominence. While they are not quite at the elite level of the past three seasons, the defense has allowed just 308 yards per game in the seven-game win streak (after allowing 410 per game in the 3-2 start). In this game, the Frogs will be facing off against the best defense in the WAC. The Air Raid attack Sonny Dykes intended to bring to Ruston has yet to take off, but in his second season at the helm, the Bulldogs won their first WAC title since 2001. The Bulldogs also had a spate of near misses in the non-conference, losing by two points to eventual Conference USA champion Southern Miss, by a single point to Conference USA runner-up Houston, and in overtime to a bowl team from the SEC (Mississippi State). Like TCU, the Bulldogs closed the year with a seven-game win streak. Five of those seven wins came on the road, including wins against the two teams tied for second in the WAC (Nevada and Utah State) and Ole Miss. Keep these two things in mind if you plan on wagering on this game. Louisiana Tech is probably better than you think, and since 2005, double-digit favorites in bowl games are just 9-17 ATS (Against the Spread).

The Game: MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
The Teams: Boise State vs Arizona State
The Line: Boise State -14
Boise State is always looking to get a shot at a BCS-conference opponent, but this is probably not what they had envisioned as their postseason reward. Arizona State closed the season with four consecutive defeats, including losses against Washington State and Arizona. The losing streak not only cost Dennis Erickson his job, but also put UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Erickson will coach the bowl game before he rides off into the sunset. Boise should have their way against a poor Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils finished ahead of only sieves Arizona and Colorado in defensive acumen in the Pac-12. In fact, during their four-game skid, the Sun Devils allowed 496 yards per game. If you feel like making a play on one of the early double-digit favorites to cover, I think Boise State is a much safer bet than TCU.

The Game: Hawaii Bowl
The Teams: Southern Miss vs Nevada
The Line: Southern Miss -6
This Christmas Eve showcase is a clash of the surprise Conference USA champ and the preseason favorite to win the WAC. Southern Miss is playing in their tenth consecutive bowl and has clinched their 18th consecutive winning season. However, for most of those 18 years, the Golden Eagles were stuck in a six to eight win rut, consistently good, but not quite good enough to be among the nation's elite mid-major programs. The Golden Eagles won nine games just four times in that span before this season. In addition, they had not won a conference title since 2003. That all changed this season as the Golden Eagles won ten games for the first time since 1988, and with their upset over Houston in the Conference USA Championship Game, set a school record with their 11th win. Southern Miss boasted the best defense in Conference USA and proved their mettle in the championship game by becoming the first team this season to hold Houston below 30 points. Still, one has to wonder what might have been. The Golden Eagles lost two games to a pair of teams they were much better than. They opened conference play by losing at Marshall, a team that as previously mentioned, was outscored by nearly 100 points on the year. Then, after an eight-game winning streak that included a road win against a surprising Virginia team, the Golden Eagles somehow lost to UAB, a team that won only thrice all season while giving both Tulane and Florida Atlantic their only IA wins. Thus, instead of a BCS showdown with a team like Michigan, they must travel to the islands to take on the most prolific offense in the WAC. Nevada absorbed the loss of their ostrich-like superman quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, and followed up their 13-1 virtuoso performance with another workmanlike 7-5 mark. Apparently, dual-threat quarterbacks grow on trees down in Reno, as head coach Chris Ault plugged in freshman Cody Fajardo who rushed for 680 yards and 11 touchdowns while throwing for over 1600 yards in splitting time with senior Tyler Lantrip. Fajardo also did a pretty good job of coaching one young lady on how to throw the football as well.
Southern Miss is rightfully favored and is in the midst of one of the best season's in school history. However, they are undergoing a great deal of turmoil now as Larry Fedora moves on to his new job with North Carolina. Plus, with losses to the likes of Marshall and UAB, they have proven to be far from invulnerable. Big upsets always happen in the bowl season, and this may be the best chance for one happening prior to Christmas.

The Game: Independence Bowl
The Teams: Missouri vs North Carolina
The Line: Missouri -4.5
North Carolina weathered the Butch Davis scandal relatively well, in winning seven regular season games and qualifying for their fourth consecutive bowl. Perhaps surprising many casual fans, the Tar Heels boasted one of the ACC's best offenses, finishing third in that category behind Clemson and Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels were led by a pair of young studs in the backfield, with sophomore quarterback Bryn Renner and freshman running back Giovani Bernard each having good seasons. Missouri was also led into a brave new world by a pair of young backfield mates. Sophomore quarterback James Franklin took over for the departed Blaine Gabbert and posed a threat both running (13 touchdowns) and throwing (20 touchdowns). Sophomore running back Henry Josey became the first Missouri running back to top 1000 yards since Derrick Washington in 2008. Missouri was solid on both sides of the ball, finishing fifth in the Big 12 on offense and fourth on defense. Based on the abundance of offensive firepower in the Big 12, I think its safe to say Missouri's offense is a bit overrated while their defense is a bit underrated. Their defense should be the difference in what should be one of the better games of the bowl season.

The Game: Little Caesar's Bowl
The Teams: Purdue vs Western Michigan
The Line: Purdue -2.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are bowl-eligible for the first time under third-year coach Danny Hope. Of course, in this day of bowl creep, that doesn't necessarily mean they're good. The Boilermakers won four of their games by a touchdown or less. They nearly lost to Middle Tennessee State. They did lose to Rice. Still, against a team with the strengths and weaknesses of Western Michigan, this could be one of the more entertaining games of the bowl season. The Broncos featured the third best offense in the MAC behind junior quarterback Alex Carder and his 28 touchdown passes. The Broncos also feature the nation's leading pass catcher in senior receiver Jordan White (127 catches for 1646 yards). Unfortunately, the Broncos defense was the second worst in the conference (ahead of only Ball State). Western Michigan faced three teams from BCS conferences this season, losing handily to Michigan, losing by three to Illinois, and upsetting Connecticut. All of those games came on the road, so you can bet the Broncos are looking forward to this neutral site clash. Purdue may be the more name brand, but Western Michigan has the better players. They should probably be a small favorite in this game, and for that reason, they are my second lock of the bowl season.The Game: Belk Bowl
The Teams: NC State vs Louisville
The Line: NC State -3
It may not seem possible, but this clash in Charlotte will mark the first time NC State has played in consecutive bowl games since the 2002 and 2003 postseasons. The Wolfpack qualified for this bowl after staging a furious rally in their regular season finale versus Maryland. The Wolfpack scored the final 42 points of that contest after trailing 41-14 in the third quarter. The win marked a fine closing streak for NC State. After losing their first three games against IA foes, the Wolfpack won five of their last seven, including an annihilation of eventual ACC champ Clemson. Like the Wolfpack, the Cardinals from Louisville closed the season on a good run. After a 2-4 start that included losses to Florida International and Marshall, the Cardinals won five of their final six games and actually shared the Big East title with West Virginia and Cincinnati. Both teams put up very similar statistics in their respective conferences. NC State had the second worst offense in the ACC, but the second best defense. Similarly, Louisville had the second worst offense in the Big East, but the third best defense. That would lead one to believe a low-scoring game is at hand. This should be a good one. Take Louisville to pull off the small upset if you're feeling lucky.

Fab Five: Week XIII

2011-11-22T14:42:00.000-08:00

Just when I go and write myself off, I have my best week to date. In reality though, the 8-2 week was like Clemson's late score against NC State. Merely window dressing on an otherwise horrible performance. My overall record is still a poor to 52-67-1. We'll go for two straight weeks in the black. Happy Thanksgiving loyal readers. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 5-0
Overall: 28-32

Tulsa +3 Houston
Houston is just two wins away from earning their first ever BCS bowl bid. Unfortunately, their opponent on Friday may be the best team in Conference USA. The Golden Hurricane were an afterthought on the national stage after losing early non-conference games to Boise State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. However, Tulsa has rebounded to win seven straight after their 1-3 start. Only one of Tulsa's eight wins has come by a touchdown or less (won by seven at Central Florida). The Golden Hurricane are a decent bet to win this game outright and represent the West division in the championship game.

Maryland +12.5 NC State
NC State still needs one more win to attain bowl eligibility (beat two IAA schools) and they may yet get it, but it won't be easy. NC State is just 3-8 in their last 11 games against the Terps and have not beaten Maryland by more than double digits since 1999. Remember the last time NC State pulled off a shocking home upset? It was just three weeks ago when they shutout North Carolina. They followed that up with a flop at Boston College. This one is at home and for a bowl bid, but it should be just as close.

Wake Forest +1.5 Vanderbilt
I'd like to coin this game as 'The South's Newest and Most Irrelevant Rivalry'. This game will mark the 5th meeting between the Commodores and Deacons in the last seven season. Wake has won three of four, and covered the spread in each win. Both teams appear to have shed their proverbial punching bag label, with Wake qualifying for its fourth bowl game in six years and Vandy attempting to qualify for its second in four years. This one should be very close, but the Deacons should be favored.

New Mexico State +19.5 Louisiana Tech
With their upset of Nevada last week, Louisiana Tech can assure themselves of at least a share of the WAC title here. That feat hardly seemed possible in early October when the Bulldogs were 1-4. Six straight wins later, and the folks from Ruston are making postseason plans. Elsewhere, in Las Cruces, the Aggies won't be bowling, but they have improved significantly in DeWayne Walker's third season as coach. After winning just five games in his first two seasons (only four against IA foes), the Aggies have notched four this year, and have been much more competitive. They should remain competitive against a Louisiana Tech team that is a little overvalued after their upset of Nevada last week.

San Jose State +6.5 Fresno State
Both of these teams pulled off upsets last week and may have kept their opponents home for the holidays in the process. San Jose State beat Navy to ensure the Midshipmen would not go bowling, while Fresno won in Hawaii, forcing the Warriors to beat both Tulane and BYU to get to a bowl game. Outside of their opener against Stanford, San Jose State has been very competitive, losing three games by a combined seven points. Their only other double-digit defeats came to UCLA (10 points), BYU (13 points), and Louisiana Tech (10 points). Those teams are out of Fresno's class this season.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2

Overall 24-35-1

Buffalo -2.5 Bowling Green
The Buffalo Bulls have exhibited one of the more extreme home/road splits this season. In their three league home games, they have upset MAC East champ Ohio, lost to MAC West leader Northern Illinois by a point, and crushed Akron by 41. In their four league road games, they have lost a close decision to Ball State, been shut out 34-0 by Temple, lost by 28 to Miami, and 13 to Eastern Michigan. Good thing for the Bulls this one is in the friendly confines of upstate New York.

Florida State -2 Florida
What exactly have the Florida Gators done in the past six or seven weeks to make an oddsmaker think they will keep this game close? Since opening 4-0, with their most impressive win being over Tennessee, the Gators have won just two of seven games. Their wins? Vanderbilt (by 5) and Furman (by 22), with both coming at home. Florida State lost a close game to Virginia last week (three of their four losses have come by a combined 11 points), but remains one of the strongest four-loss teams in the nation. Look for them to roll to a second consecutive easy win over their arch-rival.

Oklahoma -28 Iowa State
Paul Rhoads has developed a (deserved) reputation for pulling off at least one big stunner per season. In 2009, his Cyclones knocked off Nebraska in Lincoln as 20-point underdogs. Last season, they beat Texas in Austin, again as 20-point underdogs. Earlier this season, Iowa State stunned Texas tech in Lubbock as 17-point underdogs. Then last week, his Cyclones shocked the unbeaten and second-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys as two-touchdown underdogs. However, it should be noted in games following those upsets his teams have failed to cover the spread each time. Look for more of the same here. The Cyclones blew their load against the Cowboys and on the road against a pissed off Sooner team, they will take a whipping.

Michigan -7 Ohio State
This is the game Michigan fans have been waiting for since 2003 (the last time they defeated the Buckeyes). The Wolverines come in with a dynamic offense, an improved defense, and a shot at an at-large BCS bid with a win. Meanwhile, Ohio State limps in having lost two in a row after a midseason three-game winning streak got them back to bowl eligibility. Ohio State has a solid defense, but is severely limited on offense. This game may be close for a while, but Michigan should pull away in the second half.

Tennessee -7.5 Kentucky
After failing to show up in any SEC game when they were not facing Ole Miss, the Wildcats suddenly flashed some defensive chips in holding Georgia to just 317 yards and 19 points last week. That was by far their best defensive showing against any team from a BCS conference. Still, I'd chalk that up to a flash in the pan. Kentucky is bad, and has nothing to play for but pride. Meanwhile, Tennessee is only half-bad, and has a bowl game to play for.

Fab Five: Week XII

2011-11-16T16:38:00.000-08:00

And last week was back to reality. If you are doing anything with my picks other than betting against them, I pity you. Last week's 2-8 mark brings me to 44-65-1 on the year. Ouch. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 23-32

Texas Tech +18 Missouri
Since upsetting Oklahoma a month ago, Texas Tech has lost three straight games by a combined score of 159-33. And two of those games came at home. Unless the Red Raiders can notch a win in Columbia or against Baylor next weekend, they will be home for the holidays for the first time since 1999. Meanwhile, Missouri is 5-5, but seeking their first winning streak of the season. This is the second to last Big 12 game the Tigers will ever play. They have won exactly one game against a IA foe by at least 18 points (beat Iowa State by 35). Take the Red Raiders to keep this margin respectable.

San Jose State +5 Navy
After winning just three games in 2009 and 2010 combined, the Spartans from San Jose State already have three wins in hand this season and have been close in several others (three losses by a combined seven points). The Spartans host a desperate Navy team needing to win out to attain bowl eligibility. San Jose is a long way from Annapolis. Look for the Spartans to hang around and perhaps win the game outright.

Tennessee +1.5 Vanderbilt
Things have not gone as planned for the Vols this season, as they are currently winless in the SEC. Meanwhile, their in-state conference brethren have already won twice in the league, pounding punchless Ole Miss and Kentucky. Believe it or not, Vandy has actually been favored over Tennessee recently (were three point favorites in 2008). Tennessee won that game in Nashville by 10 if you were curious.

Illinois +15 Wisconsin
I know, laugh away. The Illini are in free-fall after their 6-0 start, but consider this. Since 2006, the Illini are actually 11-3 Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit underdog. And Wisconsin has not exactly dominated quality opponents on the road, losing to both Michigan State and Ohio State as substantial favorites.

Kansas State +9 Texas
The Wildcats have exceeded any rational fan's preseason expectations by winning eight regular season games for the first time since 2003. The Wildcats have been opportunistic (+9 turnover margin), excelled at special teams (two kickoff return touchdowns), and been a little lucky (6-1 in one-score games). The Wildcats are extremely solid and shouldn't beat themselves against a Texas team that has just a single win versus a team that currently has a winning record (BYU).

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 0-5

Overall 21-33-1

Louisville -1 Connecticut
After some early season struggles (losses to FIU and Marshall), Louisville has quietly turned into a solid team under Charlie Strong and still have an outside shot at the Big East title. They should handle a Connecticut team that is pretty bad on both sides of the ball.

Miami -1 South Florida
Miami has struggled to a 5-5 mark in Al Golden's first year at the helm. However, each of Miami's losses has come by eight points or fewer. A little luck here or there, and the Hurricanes could be challenging for the ACC Championship Game. As it is, they will have to settle for another nondescript bowl. South Florida ended their four-game losing skid last week against Syracuse, and like Miami, are out of the running for their conference title. Miami has better players and barring a turnover disaster, should win here.

Utah State -10 Idaho
Utah State continued their late charge to bowl eligibility last week by holding off San Jose State 34-33. Now they head to Moscow, Idaho to face the WAC's worst team. Idaho has already lost five games by double digits this season and that number should be six after Saturday.

Michigan -3.5 Nebraska
I'll say this for Michigan, they know how to win at home. The Wolverines are unbeaten at the Big House this season, and are a pretty solid play to cover the number there as well (5-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Nebraska is just 4-4-1 ATS on the season and should not be trusted on the road against a very good team.

Utah -3.5 Washington State
Washington State upset Arizona State at home last week to give them more than one Pac-12 (formerly 10) win for the first time since 2007. So much for the afterglow. Utah has been much improved in recent weeks, winning three league games in a row since a lopsided loss to Cal. The Utes still have an outside shot at the division title (Pac-12 South if you were curious), so their should be no motivation issue here.

Re-Thinking the AP Top 25

2011-11-14T09:31:00.000-08:00

Ever find yourself perplexed by the national polls that come out each Sunday afternoon? Ever gaze in wonder as Team A is ranked above Team B thanks almost solely to the fact that they have fewer losses regardless of the quality of their opponents? Have you ever questioned why a team must drop in the polls just because they lost (or rise just because those above them lost)? I certainly have. I think a better way to rank teams would be to borrow a method the NCAA selection committee uses to pick teams for its postseason basketball tournament. Take a look at a team's resume. Who did you beat, where did you beat them, and to a certain extent, how bad did you beat them? Below I have listed the resumes for each team that I believe has at least a quasi-legitimate argument to be ranked in the most recent Associated Press Poll. I have grouped their wins and losses as either being 'Good', 'Decent', 'Bad', or coming against a IAA school. Some wins or losses I see as good, you may see as only decent and vice-versa and ditto with decent and bad, but I think this is a much more pragmatic and logical way to rank teams. Enjoy,

ACC
Clemson AP#7
Hate on the ACC all you want, but the Tigers have a pair of wins almost as good as anyone in the country, at home versus Florida State and on the road against Virginia Tech. Their number 7 ranking seems about right.

Florida State AP#23
The Seminoles won't live up to their preseason hype, but look at the losses. Two have come to top-10 teams and the other came on the road to a solid Wake Forest team. They don't have any great wins, but they dominated their opponents since losing to Wake. This is a top-20 team, and potentially top-10 depending on how they finish the regular season.

Georgia Tech AP NR
Outside of the Clemson upset, their other wins are only decent. No bad losses, but all three have come in their last four games. This is a fringe top-25 team.

Virginia AP NR
The Cavaliers don't have the scalps to be in the top-25 with three losses, but they have certainly exceeded preseason expectations.

Virginia Tech AP#9
No great wins, but a host of solid ones and their only loss came to a team in the top-10. Deserving of their spot in the top-10.

Big East
None. Outside of South Florida (a team that is currently 1-4 in the conference), no team accomplished anything of note outside the league.

Big 10
Michigan AP#20
Outside of Notre Dame, their best win is probably at Northwestern. No bad losses, but just 2-2 on the road. A little underrated at 20.

Michigan State AP#12
No bad losses, and a pair of great scalps (Michigan and Wisconsin). The Spartans should probably be in the top-10.

Nebraska AP#17
The Northwestern loss at home, and the margin of the Wisconsin loss should probably keep them out of the top-15 despite their wins over Michigan State and Penn State.

Penn State AP#21
No marquee wins, but their two losses have come to very good teams. Should probably still be in the top-20 based on resume alone. The AP Poll should not be a ranking system that also attempts to examine a team's psyche.

Wisconsin AP#15
They have dominated the schedule, but six of their eight wins have come against bad or IAA teams. If not for the Ohio State loss, I'd have them in the top-10.

Big 12
Baylor AP#25
The TCU win is looking better and better, but I think their weekend escape against Kansas is more indicative of how good they actually are. Should be receiving votes, but not top-25 worthy.

Kansas State AP#16
Five of their eight wins have come against solid teams. Both their losses came to top-10 teams. A top-15 team, statistics be damned.

Oklahoma AP#5
That Texas Tech loss is looking worse and worse everyday. A lot of decent wins and a major scalp on the road at Florida State. Definitely top-10, but behind Oregon and Alabama in the one-loss pecking order. If they win at Oklahoma State, that could change.

Oklahoma State AP#2
No marquee wins, but eight, count 'em, eight solid wins. If they beat Oklahoma in Bedlam, there should be no argument for an Alabama/LSU rematch.

Texas AP#NR
That Missouri loss has rightfully exiled them from the top-25.

Pac-12
Oregon AP#4
They do have a lot of 'bad' wins, but that loss on a neutral site to LSU is as forgivable as they come.

Southern Cal AP#18
No horrible losses, and plenty of solid to above-average wins. Top-20 material.

Stanford AP#8
Look at that 'bad' column. Perhaps the Cardinal were overrated heading into the Oregon game.

SEC
Alabama AP#3
Probably a little overrated thanks to the relative weakness of the middle of the SEC. Only loss was by three points in OT to one of two remaining undefeated teams. Top-5 for sure.

Arkansas AP#6
Before they beat South Carolina, the Hogs had no business being in the top-10. I'm still not sure they should be as high as they are.

Georgia AP#13
The 'Dawgs have ridden a soft (by SEC standards) schedule to a near certain SEC East title. No bad losses, but no great wins either. Probably top-15, but I would be hesitant to rank them higher.

LSU AP#1
Easily the best resume of any team in the country.

South Carolina AP#14
A plethora of solid wins, but outside of Georgia, no wins to turn your head. Probably ranked about right.

Independents
Notre Dame AP#24
Their losses are all excusable, and their schedule has been harder than most casual observers would have thought. Its about time they returned to the top-25. For once, the Irish are underrated by the national media.

Mid-Majors
A wise man once said: "For everyone who has will be given more, and he will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what he has will be taken from him." He was speaking of a different kind of talent, but you get the idea. With Boise's loss, this is probably true for the mid-majors this season. There is still a shot one can make a BCS game, but it has become much less likely.

Conference USA
Houston AP#11
There is not a lot of beef in that schedule. Outside of the 'hey they're undefeated' argument, no reason this team should be in the top-10. Their undefeated season may come to an end at the hands of one of the other CUSA teams on this list.

Southern Miss AP#22
Even with the loss to Marshall, the Golden Eagles could conceivably grab a BCS bid. If they win the Conference USA Championship Game and stand 12-1, as long as they are ranked above the Big East champion, Conference USA could have their first BCS buster.

Tulsa AP NR
Here's an outside the box top-25 team for you. Tulsa has lost three games, but each came to a team currently ranked in the top-10. Believe it or not, the Golden Hurricane control their own destiny in the Conference USA race. If they win their last two, at UTEP, and then home versus Houston, they would play in the Conference USA Championship Game. Think about this, if Houston had played this schedule, is there any way they wouldn't have three losses? This team is criminally underrated.

MAC
None. Temple and Toledo did some good work, and had some near misses in the non-conference, but every MAC team has at least three losses.

Mountain West
Boise State AP#10
The loss to TCU nixed any dreams of a BCS bid, but these Broncos are still a top-10 team. The wins at Toledo (ask Ohio State) and versus Tulsa are better than the general public knows.

TCU AP#19
The Horned Frogs have won five in a row and their win at Boise is the Broncos first regular season home loss since 2001. Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore has now lost three games in his illustrious career. Two of them have come against TCU.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State AP NR
Sure this is a reach, but this team should probably at least be receiving votes. They were somewhat competitive in non-conference games against Virginia Tech and Illinois and are two wins away from the first ever 10-win regular season for a Sun Belt school. If they take them both and win their bowl and have a few breaks come their way in the form of other schools losing, they could become the first ever Sun Belt team to enter the AP Poll.

WAC
None. Nevada has had a decent season, but they have almost no wins of note. Louisiana Tech missed great opportunities against Southern Miss (two-point loss), Houston (one-point loss) and Mississippi State (OT loss) to nab a quality win. If Utah State could hold a lead (led in the 4th quarter against quality foes Auburn and BYU), they would have a top-25 argument.

Fab Five: Week XI

2011-11-09T16:24:00.000-08:00

By the slimmest of margins (half a point in the Pitt/Cincinnati game) I had my second winning week of 2011. Cue the parade. The 6-4 week brings my overall record to 42-57-1. Still not a record to be any kind of proud of. Can we go back to back with winning weeks? Doubtful, but I'll give it a shot. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 21-29

East Carolina +4 UTEP
I don't like to make guarantees, but this if I were to be on just one game all season, this would be it. East Carolina has navigated a horrendous schedule (both Carolinas and Virginia Tech were on the non-conference slate) and has positioned themselves for a 6th straight bowl game. Meanwhile, UTEP has wins over exactly no one of note, and boasts the worst defense in Conference USA. Look for the Pirates to win this one outright.

Pitt +3 Louisville
Despite boasting one of the best down-to-down statistical profiles in the Big East, the Pitt Panthers are in jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game. At 4-5, they must win two of their final three (@Louisville, @West Virginia, and versus Syracuse) to get to bowl eligibility. The Panthers will face a Louisville team boasting a stout defense and riding high off an upset of league favorite West Virginia. However, while the Cardinals won on the scoreboard, they were actually outgained by nearly 200 yards and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown provided the winning margin. If Pitt can avoid any killer mistakes, they should be in position to further muddy the Big East race by winning here.

West Virginia +3.5 Cincinnati
The Bearcats are the only remaining undefeated Big East team (in league play that is), and if Tennessee's star quarterback and receiver could have been injured a few weeks earlier, the Bearcats could be milling around the top-10. They aren't quite that good, but the league race is theirs to lose. The Mountaineers come in having lost two of three, but still boast the league's best offense. In fact, they rank higher than Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Don't be surprised if the Mountaineers tighten up the Big East race on Saturday.

Texas Tech +17 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has been relatively mortal on the road, edging Texas A&M by a single point and beating Texas by just 12. Of course, they also beat a solid Missouri team by 21. Oklahoma State does have a putrid defense, ranking 110th nationally in yards allowed. If Texas Tech can avoid turnovers (Oklahoma State has forced a national best 31 and Texas Tech is tied for 7th nationally with just 10 turnovers) they have a chance to keep this one close.

Washington +12 Southern Cal
Washington has quietly turned a corner in Year 3 under Steve Sarkisian, becoming bowl-eligible for the second straight year, and actually playing like a bowl caliber team. The Huskies seek an incredible third straight win over Southern Cal (and second in a row in the Coliseum). These teams are very evenly matched and the spread should probably be closer to a touchdown.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2

Overall 21-28-1

Texas -1.5 Missouri
The Longhorns have certainly looked like vintage Texas the past two games, in dispatching Kansas and Texas Tech by a combined score of 95-20. The Horns have found an offense, posting nearly 1200 yards in the two games, by far their best two-game stretch since the end of the 2009 regular season. Missouri has been up and down and must win two of their final three games to get a bowl. The Tigers don't even pretend to play defense against competent teams, so Texas is the pick here.

Florida State -9 Miami
Sleep on the Seminoles all you want. Since their three-game losing streak early in the season (two of which came to top-10 outfits I might add), the 'Noles have won four in a row over their ACC brethren by an average of nearly 29 points. Its looking a lot like 1996 in Tallahassee. Florida State will have to wait until next year to fulfill their promise, but this team is scary good, and they should have no trouble with a porous Hurrican defense.

Ohio State -7.5 Purdue
Since setting offensive football back a few decades in their 10-7 loss to Michigan State, the Buckeyes have showed signs of life on offense. Behind quarterback Braxton Miller, the Buckeyes have averaged nearly 335 yards per game. It ain't great, but considering they average just 256 yards per game against Toledo, Miami, Colorado, and Michigan State, it does represent solid improvement. The defense has remained sturdy, if not quite as dominant as usual. They should do enough to take care of a Purdue squad that has only a win over Illinois to hang its hat on.

Stanford -3.5 Oregon
The Cardinal of Stanford have not lost since falling to the Ducks in Eugene in the 5th game of 2010 season. Stanford has won 17 straight games, with only three of those wins coming by fewer than 10 points. They have been exceptionally tough at home, winning their eight home games in that span by an average of 30 points. Oregon is no slouch, and is the second best team in the Pac-12. However, Stanford is statistically the best, and has the homefield advantage. They should win by at least a touchdown.

Arizona State -13 Washington State
The Sun Devils missed their chance at clinching the Pac-12 South when they fell at UCLA last weekend. Still, they have a great shot at winning the South, and outside of Southern Cal are the only above-average South division team. Their opponent, Washington State, has improved from their putrid run from 2008-2009, but outside of Colorado, remain one of the dregs of the Pac-12. After showing promise with a 3-1 start, the Cougars have lost their last two home games by 30 and 23 points respectively. The Sun Devils should take this one by at least a pair of touchdowns.

Fab Five: Week X

2011-11-02T14:14:00.000-07:00

Surprise, surprise. My unique inability to predict the results of college football contests continued with another 3-7 mark. Overall, I am now 26-43-1. Maybe I can get one more winning week in before the season is over. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 18-27

Louisville +13 West Virginia
Louisville has the best defense no one knows about. West Virginia may be the best team in the Big East, but they will struggle to put the pesky Cardinals away.

Syracuse +2 Connecticut
Syracuse has had a very up-and-down season. In no particular order, the Orange have walloped West Virginia, barely escaped Tulane and Rhode Island, and gotten blown out by Louisville. Still, their opponent on Saturday, is the worst team in the Big East by a wide margin and should not be favored over anyone.

Pitt +3.5 Cincinnati
While they have performed rather poorly outside the conference, against Big East foes, Pitt has been dominant. Cincinnati is the lone remaining unbeaten Big East team, but has real issues on defense that Piit should be able to take advantage of.

Utah State +3.5 Hawaii
The Aggies are the best two-win team in college football. They have consistently outplayed their opponents only to be done in by mistakes at inopportune times. The road trip to the islands will be tough, but Utah State is a very good team despite their record.

South Carolina +5 Arkansas
The Gamecocks enter this game likely needing to win out to ensure a second straight SEC East title. Meanwhile, Arkansas has quietly slipped back into the top-10. However, the Razorbacks have not been particularly impressive in any game since rallying to knock off Texas A&M a month ago. Arkansas has been ouplayed in consecutive weeks by Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, not usually a characteristic of a top-10 outfit. Look for Carolina to keep this one close and potentially pull the outright upset.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-3

Overall 18-26-1

Florida State -14.5 Boston College
Very quietly, Florida State has surged since their three-game losing streak. Keep in mind, the Seminoles losses in that span came to a pair of top-10 teams, and in a game where they turned the ball over 5 times. The Seminoles may be the best team in the ACC at this moment, and the Eagles may be the worst.

Alabama -4.5 LSU
The Game of the Century, at least of this season, takes place on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The SDPI mid-season numbers say Alabama is one of the best teams of all time. LSU is good, but against what may be one of the best teams ever, on the road, I'll take my chances.

Michigan -4 Iowa
Michigan was shut down when they faced an elite defense in Michigan State. Against other defenses, the Wolverine have moved the ball very well. And don't look now, but the defense is playing above-average football. With an offense like this, that is all you need.

Virginia -1.5 Maryland
Don't sleep on the Cavaliers. SDPI loved them as a team to watch in the second-half and they can get to bowl eligibility here with a win against a stumbling Maryland team.

Oklahoma -13.5 Texas A&M
The Sooners recovered from their massive bed-wetting against Texas Tech by decimating previously unbeaten Kansas State in Manhattan. Meanwhile, Texas A&M limps into this game off a home defeat to Missouri. The Sooners will also want revenge for last year's upset loss in College Station. Look for Oklahoma to lay the wood in this game.

Mid-Season SDPI: Big East, Mountain West, Sun Belt, WAC

2011-10-31T14:16:00.000-07:00

In the past two weeks, we have handicapped seven conference races. This week, we will examine the last four. This week's breakdown includes the Big East, a BCS conference that may be on its final legs and three non-BCS conferences of varying degrees of strength.

First off, here are the Big East standings.
And now the SDPI ratings.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats are the early leader in the Big East race, but that may not last long. They play SDPI darling Pittsburgh on the road Saturday.

Connecticut: The defending Big East champs have not been able to carry over their phenomenal close game luck from last season, going just 1-3 in one-score games thus far. They need to win 3 of their final 4 games to get back to a bowl.

Louisville: The Cardinals are flying under the radar now. Pardon the pun. Their defense has been the best in the Big East in the early going, and they get a chance to prove themselves this week as they take on the conference's best offense in West Virginia. Charlie Strong and defensive coordinator Vance Bedford have done a great job with the defense. The Cardinals have not allowed 30 points or 400 yards of total offense in 15 straight games. In 3 seasons under Steve Kragthorpe, the Cardinals surrendered at least 30 points 17 times and at least 400 yards 18 times (in 36 games).

Pittsburgh: The Panthers have been the league's strongest team in the early going, but unfortunately have done nothing to improve the league's standing nationally in losing to Iowa, Notre Dame, and Utah in non-conference action.

Rutgers: Receiver Mohamed Sanu ranks 5th nationally with 70 catches on the season. However, he is averaging only 10.44 yards per reception. Only 3 receivers with at least 50 catches have a lower per-reception average.

South Florida: It's ironic that the only Big East team to do anything of note in the non-conference is sitting in the league basement. Since joining the Big East in 2005, the Bulls have never finished better than 4-3 in the league.

Syracuse: The Orange need just one win over their final 4 games to secure bowl eligibility for a second straight season. If they do participate in a bowl game, it would mark the first time they have played in consecutive bowls since the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

West Virginia: The conference title and automatic BCS berth may come down to their showdown with Pittsburgh on the Friday after Thanksgiving.

Here are the Mountain West standings.And the SDPI ratings.
Air Force: The Falcons have gotten the difficult portion of their league-slate out of the way early. They may close the year on a 5-game sinning streak.

Boise State: What more can you say about the Broncos? Outside of TCU, they are unlikely to be challenged down the stretch. They just need to get out their Stanford and Oklahoma State voodoo dolls.

Colorado State: The Steve Fairchild era began quite well believe it or not. The Rams finished 7-6 in 2008 and then raced out to a 3-0 start in 2009, with upsets over Colorado and Nevada. However, since then, the Rams are just 6-23.

New Mexico: Will the Lobos win a game this year? Their best chance will come on November 12th when they host UNLV. If we do not include their game against Sam Houston State (a IAA school they lost to), the Lobos have scored just 7 offensive touchdowns in their other 7 games. Their date with Boise on the smurf turf on December 3rd should be fun.

San Diego State: With games against Colorado State, New Mexico, and UNLV left on the schedule, the Aztecs have a great shot at a second straight bowl game. However, they have disappointed, particularly on defense.

TCU: The defensive rating is buoyed a great deal by holding New Mexico to 85 total yards. The Horned Frogs aren't nearly as good on that side of the ball as they have been the past 3 seasons.

UNLV: The rebuilding job continues in Las Vegas. They do stand a good chance of not finishing in the basement, so there's that.

Wyoming: A pleasant surprise. The Cowboys still have TCU and Boise to play, but could get to 8 regular season wins for the first time since 1998.

Here are the Sun Belt standings.And the SDPI ratings.
Arkansas St: At 4-0 in the conference, the Red Wolves are threatening for their second ever bowl bid under first-year head coach Hugh Freeze (of The Blindside fame).

Florida Atlantic: Will the Owls go winless? Their best chance for a 'W' is likely at home against UAB.

Florida International: The Panthers have under-performed after raising expectations with a 3-0 start, but still have a shot at a second consecutive bowl game.

Louisiana-Lafayette: Like Arkansas State, the Ragin' Cajuns have surprised folks (at least those who have been paying attention) with a great start under a first-year coach (Mark Hudspeth).

Louisiana-Monroe: Statistically, the Warhawks have been the best team in the Sun Belt. However, a pair of close conference losses, and a tough non-conference schedule means they must win out to have any shot at their first ever bowl game.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders have also been very strong statistically, but close losses (1-3 in one-score games) and a tough non-conference schedule means they also have no margin for error down the stretch.

North Texas: Todd Dodge went just 5-25 in Sun Belt play during his four-year tenure. Dan McCarney has already won two league games and also beat Indiana in non-conference action in his first season.

Troy: The King is dead! After winning at least a share of 5 straight Sun Belt titles, the Trojans have fallen on hard times. Their defense, awful last season, has remained as such, and the offense has regressed.

Western Kentucky: After winning just two league games in their first two seasons in the Sun Belt, the Hilltoppers are riding a four-game Sun Belt winning streak. If only they hadn't lost in grisly fashion to Indiana State (IAA) by a 44-16 count, they could be making postseason plans.

Finally, here are the WAC standings.And the SDPI ratings.
Fresno St: The Bulldogs have been mediocre in the WAC and unless they play (and win) a bowl game against a BCS-conference school, will not have beaten a BCS-conference opponent for the first time since 2006.

Hawaii: The Warriors shot at a second-straight league title will likely come down to their trip to Reno on November 12th.

Idaho: The Vandals have fallen off a cliff offensively. In their seven games versus IA opponents, they have scored just 9 offensive touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech: The Air-Raid has yet to take off, but the defense is among the best in the conference.

Nevada: The Wolfpack play an entertaining brand of football, and with 3 of their final 4 games coming at home, have a great shot at taking the league crown.

New Mexico St: The formerly hapless Aggies have found an offense. In DeWayne Walker's first two seasons as head coach, the Aggies averaged 11.5 points per game (2009) and 15.7 points per game (2010). If we add those two numbers together, it amounts to fewer points than the Aggies are currently averaging (28.4 points per game).

San Jose St: The Spartans did not beat a single IA team last season, but have already won three such games in 2011.

Utah St: America's unluckiest team. 4 of their 5 losses have come by a combined 15 points. The Aggies have outgained their seven opponents by nearly 1000 total yards, averaged nearly two yards more per play, and outscored them by 56 points. Going forward, that means they are very dangerous, but sitting at 2-5, a bowl bid is hardly a sure thing.

Fab Five: Week IX

2011-10-26T15:26:00.000-07:00

It was another forgettable week for your humble prognosticator. I went 3-7 and pulled my overall record even lower to 23-36-1. I will try and post just my second winning week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 17-23

Virginia +14 Miami
Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually beaten Miami 3 of the last 5 years, with all 3 wins coming as a betting line underdog. Miami beat Georgia Tech by 17 last week, but was only able to 262 yards of offense against a suspect Yellow Jacket defense. Look for Virginia to keep this one close on Thursday night.

Tulane +16.5 East Carolina
The SDPI numbers love Tulane, and while I don't trust the Green Wave a great deal, they are catching three score in this game. With my track record this season, what do you have to lose?

Oregon State +5 Utah
Since opening the season with poor showings versus Sacramento State and Wisconsin, the Beavers have quietly rebounded and played well in their last 5 games. While they have still gone just 2-3 in those games, a few lucky bounces here or there and they could have won 4 or even all 5. Without quarterback Jordan Wynn, Utah has issues on offense. In addition, the Utes have not stayed within 9 points of any of their Pac-12 opponents. The Utes may have to wait another week to pick up their initial Pac-12 win.

Syracuse +3 Louisville
Both teams won a pair of Friday night Big East showdowns last week to avoid 0-2 starts in the conference. The loser basically out of the running for the Big East title, and if Louisville loses, is likely out of bowl contention. Syracuse reminds me a lot of Jim Grobe's Wake Forest teams. The Orange will likely never be a serious national threat, but they are good enough to contend for bowl year in and year out, and occasionally pull off a huge upset. I don't think Louisville is that good, so even take the Orange to cover and potentially even win outright.

Michigan St +4.5 Nebraska
Nebraska is like Michigan-lite on offense. Taylor Martinez is not quite the running threat Denard Robinson is. He is very comparable as a passer, which is to say, he's a much better runner. Michigan State proved they can shut down one-dimensional offensive attacks in limiting Michigan to just 14 points and 250 yards two weeks ago. Look for more of the same here.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 1-4

Overall 16-23-1

Central Michigan -7.5 Akron
The Chippewas have suffered through a second straight disappointing season. However, the Akron Zips are the cure for what ails ya. The Zips have only stayed within 10 points of a single IA opponent this year, Eastern Michigan.

Clemson -4.5 Georgia Tech
Clemson reminds me a lot of last year's Oregon team. They sometimes take awhile to get going, but eventually their offense and a few timely takeaways by the defense snow you under in the second half. Clemson is unbeaten versus the spread this season, and this number seems very low considering how poorly Georgia Tech has played of late.

Stanford -7.5 Southern Cal
Like Clemson, Stanford is unbeaten versus the spread this season. Their closest win was by 27 points at Arizona. They have been the most statistically dominant Pac-12 team in the early going and should continue laying claim to their top-5 ranking with a relatively easy road win over Southern Cal.

Texas Tech -15 Iowa State
I never thought they would win in Norman, but the Red Raiders are were an under-valued team heading into that game. From the looks of this spread, they appear to be under-valued here as well. Iowa State has been less than impressive on the road in conference play, losing by 23 to Baylor and 35 to Missouri. Look for more of the same here.

Georgia -3 Vs Florida
Georgia has played very well since opening the season 0-2. Actually they have played very well since opening the season 0-1. The Bulldogs outplayed the Gamecocks, but lost thanks to turnovers and a well-timed fake punt. Meanwhile, Florida has disintegrated after their 4-0 start, losing to LSU and Alabama, but also to Auburn. Each loss has come by double-digits and the Gators have struggled mightily on offense. Look for Georgia to continue their winning ways here.

Mid-Season SDPI: Big 10, Pac-12, CUSA, MAC

2011-10-25T15:17:00.000-07:00

Mid-Season SDPI ratings are back for their second crack at handicapping all the conference races. This week we'll take a look at the new Big 10, the new Pac-12, and a pair of non-BCS conferences, Conference USA, and the MAC.

Here are the current Big 10 standings. And here are the SDPI ratings.
Illinois: The Illini aren'tas good as their down-to-down performance would suggest? Who would have thought? Ron Zook is a terrible coach, but I guarantee the Illini will pull off at least one upset in their next 3 (@Penn State, versus Michigan, versus Wisconsin).

Indiana: Things have not been pretty in Hoosierville. Indiana has not beaten a IA school and boasts non-conference losses to Ball State and North Texas.

Ohio State: That offense has been as bad as anyone in the conference, and the defense has not lived up to its previous standard.

Penn State: After they escaped against Temple, the Nittany Lions looked like they could be in for a long season. But here they are at 7-1 and contending for the division title.

Purdue: Yes, they somehow lost to Rice and barely escaped Middle Tennessee State, but the Boilermakers are just one upset away from a bowl game (assuming they beat Indiana).

Wisconsin: They fell in dramatic fashion in East Lansing, but the Badgers still have a great shot of ending up in Pasadena for the second straight year.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes haven't played well, but they are 5-2 and barring an epic upset against Minnesota this Saturday, will be bowl eligible by Halloween.

Michigan: The Wolverines were exposed as a one-dimensional offense against their 'little brother'. Sure, the Wolverines can pass, but not against good defenses.

Michigan State: The Spartans are better than their ranking would indicate. They have faced the top-two offenses in the conference and still have the league's best defense.

Minnesota: The Gophers teased early on with a close loss at Southern Cal, but fans probably knew they were in for a long season when they fell at home to New Mexico State the next week.

Nebraska: The Huskers have not lived up to the preseason hype, particularly on defense. If they have any designs on winning the division, they must beat Michigan State on Saturday.

Northwestern: The Wildcats have lost a few close ones, but their wins have come against Boston College and Eastern Illinois so that tells you all you need to know.

And now the Pac-12.
And here are the SDPI ratings.
California: Better than their 1-3 conference record would indicate, but not anywhere near as good as the super-powers (Oregon and Stanford) in the division.

Oregon: If they had held onto the football against LSU, the showdown in Palo Alto on November 12th would be your game of the year.

Oregon State: Surprise, Surprise. The Beavers have played markedly better since opening the year with losses to Sacramento State and Wisconsin. Unfortunately, Oregon and Stanford are left on the schedule, so a bowl bid is unlikely.

Stanford: I wasn't sold on the Cardinal before the season started, but wow, they are good. I think we'll see another Pac-10(12) versus SEC showdown in this year's BCS National Championship game.

Washington: Like Stanford, the Huskies are another team that has been better than I thought they would be. The Huskies were a very lucky bowl team last season, but they are a legitimate fringe top-25 team this year.

Washington State: The Cougars are light-years from where they were in Paul Wulff's first 3 seasons. Unfortunately, they are still bad and that improvement probably won't buy him a 5th year.

Arizona: The defense is not quite as bad as the rating would indicate. The Wildcats have faced the top-two offenses in the conference (Oregon and Stanford).

Arizona State: Outside of Southern Cal, the Sun Devils are the best of what's around in the Pac-12 South. They won't give Stanford much a challenge in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game though.

Colorado: The Buffaloes are officially in Washington State circa 2008-2009 territory.

Southern Cal: Their turnover-propelled upset of Notre Dame has them a shade overrated. Stanford should handle them with relative ease this Saturday.

UCLA: Tell me again why they fired Karl Dorrell?

Utah: Their first season as a member of a BCS-conference has not quite been as successful as they had hoped. The grass ain't always greener, but the money sure is.

And now we examine the little guys. We'll start with Conference USA.And, once again, the SDPI ratings.
East Carolina: The win Saturday against Navy was huge for their bowl hopes. Despite the fact that a bowl game is still very much up in the air, the Pirates do control their own destiny in the division with Southern Miss and UCF coming to Greenville.

Marshall: Their 3 wins have come by a combined 14 points. Memphis and UAB are still on the schedule, so a bowl bid is a possibility.

Memphis: The Tigers broke a 16-game conference losing streak with their win at Tulane Saturday. They're still awful though.

Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles dominated fellow contender SMU on Saturday. If they can win in El Paso on Saturday, they will likely creep into the AP top-25 for the first time since 2004.

UAB: The Blazers have been awful this season, but there was nothing fluky about their win over defending league champion UCF on Thursday. The Blazers outgained the Knights by 170 yards

UCF: The Knights are still alive it in the division race. 3 of their 4 losses have come by 7 points or less.

Houston: The Cougars have scored at least 49 points in each of their 3 conference games. The defense remains a liability though, and could cost them their designs on an undefeated season.

Rice: The Owls aren't good, but they somehow beat Purdue in September.

SMU: Their game against Southern Miss could have been a preview of the CUSA Championship Game. The Mustangs are extremely balanced on both sides of the ball and will test Tulsa this week.

Tulane: The Green Wave have a WTF?! rating. How are they rated so high despite a 1-3 league record? In their lone win, they totally dominated, outgaining UAB by nearly 350 yards. They also stayed almost even with UTEP in yards despite the 44-7 loss to the Miners. Then in their most recent defeat to the worst team in the conference, the Green Wave actually outgained Memphis by 170 yards. With the coaching upheaval and their struggle on the scoreboard, I don't trust this rating at all. However, if Tulane pulls off an upset or two in the season's second-half, well, I told you so.

Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane were mostly forgotten after an early season stretch that included games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State. In the conference though, Tulsa has been very impressive. However, their conference slate has included Tulane, UAB, and Rice, so lets see how they do against SMU before we start crowning anyone.

UTEP: The Miners are a notch below the top-3 out west (Houston, SMU, and Tulsa), but if they beat Rice and pull off one upset in their other 4 games, the Miners will be bowling for the second consecutive year.

And finally, we close this week with the MAC.
And the SDPI ratings.

Akron: The Zips have now lost 10 of their last 11 MAC games. The Zips were only within a touchdown at the gun in 3 of those losses.

Bowling Green: With their upset of Temple on Saturday, the Falcons move to 4-4 overall, and have an outside shot at bowl eligibility. The Falcons aren't particularly good, but outside of Temple, Toledo, Ohio, and Northern Illinois, none of the other 9 teams in the conference are either.

Buffalo: The Bulls lost in heart-breaking fashion on Saturday, missing an extra point with under 30 second to go that would have sent their game with Northern Illinois to overtime. The Bulls have played markedly better at home in the conference. In their two league home games (an upset of Ohio and the near miss on Saturday), the Bulls have averaged 541 yards and 34 points per game. In their two league road games (losses to Ball State and Temple), the Bulls have averaged 254 yards and 12.5 points per game.

Kent State: Under new management, the problem remains the same. The Golden Flashes have a phenomenal MAC-level defense, but their offense is absolutely horrendous.

Miami: At 2-5, a bowl bid is basically out of the question. However, the Redhawks can take solace in the fact that they played reasonably well against a pair of teams from BCS conferences (lost by 11 at Missouri and 6 at Minnesota).

Ohio: The Bobcats host the Temple Owls on Tuesday November 2nd in what will likely decide the MAC East.

Temple: Despite their upset loss at Bowling Green, the Owls are the top-rated SDPI team. In their 5 league games, the Owls have allowed just 6 offensive touchdowns.

Ball State: The Cardinals don't do a whole lot well, but they have won the close ones (4-0 in one-score games) and are just one win away from bowl eligibility.

Central Michigan: All offense, no defense. The Chippewas have not been able to stop anyone, so despite their firepower, they are staring at their second straight losing season.

Eastern Michigan: They haven't gotten a lot (or any) press nationally, and they aren't very good, but the Eagles have won 5 games for the first time since 1995. They will have to take two of their last four to get to just their second ever bowl game since they played and beat two IAA schools in the non-conference. I'll be pulling hard for them down the stretch.

Northern Illinois: Their escape at Buffalo leaves them as the only serious challenger to Toledo in the MAC West. They face the Rockets on Tuesday Night Football the day after Halloween.

Toledo: The Rockets are exceptionally balanced on both sides of the ball. A rematch with Temple in the MAC Championship Game would be exciting.

Western Michigan: Like their directional Michigan brethren in the center of the state, the Broncos struggles on defense have prevented them from being a contender.

Fab Five: Week VIII

2011-10-19T16:30:00.000-07:00

I just can't win. After going 1-4 with dogs two weeks ago, I managed a 4-1 mark this past week. After going 4-1 with favorites two weeks ago, I went 0-4-1 this past week (thanks Steve Spurrier). My yearly mark is now 30-39-1. Time is running out to dig out of this hole. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 15-20

Missouri +7.5 Oklahoma State
If you read my SDPI post on the Big 12 from Monday, you know that my numbers really like Missouri despite their 3-3 record. Similarly, while the numbers like Oklahoma State, they do not appear to be a top-10 team. This game is in Columbia, and the 'better' team by my ratings is getting a touchdown. What do you have to lose?

Georgia Tech +3 Miami
Speaking of SDPI, the numbers hate Miami. The Hurricanes have the worst defense in the ACC, and that may be just the antidote Georgia Tech needs after struggling on offense for the past two games.

Michigan State +8 Wisconsin
Who was the last team to beat Wisconsin in the regular season? Sparty. After watching the Spartans totally manhandle Michigan, I'm a believer. Their defense is legit and will probably be the best one Wisconsin faces all year (unless they meet up with Alabama or LSU in their bowl game). The Spartans are playing at home and getting nearly 10 points. Roll with them here.

Auburn +22 LSU
I know LSU is playing at home and has look-ed nigh unbeatable as of late, but hear me out. The Tigers (LSU variety) are 5-1 ATS (Against the Spread). Under Les Miles, the Tigers have had exactly one winning season ATS. They went 6-5-1 against the number in Miles' first season (2005). Methinks Auburn will at least keep this one somewhat close (17 points or so).

Cincinnati +3 South Florida
The bloom has certainly fallen off the South Florida rose. The Bulls seemed headed for the top-10 until a Thursday night beatdown at the hands of Pitt, followed by an upset loss at lowly Connecticut. At 0-2 in the Big East, the Bulls have now gone 8-15 in Big East play over the past three and half seasons, while going 21-2 in non-conference. Those non-conference games have not been all gimmes either. The Bulls are 6-2 versus non-conference BCS foes (and Notre Dame). Meanwhile, Cincinnati has rebounded from their poor 2010 season and are a win away from bowl eligibility. Outside of their game in Knoxville, the Bearcats have played very well defensively, and against a limited passing attack, the Bearcats have a real shot of pulling off the outright upset.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 0-4-1

Overall 15-19-1

Clemson -11 North Carolina
The SDPI numbers love Clemson, hailing them as the best team in the ACC on both sides of the ball. Honestly, I thought this spread would be closer to 17 or 20 points. North Carolina is a decent team, but not anywhere near Clemson's class.

Nevada -10.5 Fresno State
The winner of this game will have a leg up in the race for the WAC title. Nevada has played very well this season when not facing elite teams. Oregon and Boise State outscored them by a combined 69 points, but the Wolfpack have won 3 of their other 4 contests, with the lone loss coming by a single point to Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Fresno has the indignity of losing at home by double-digits to arguably the worst team in the SEC (Ole Miss). Nevada should win by at least a pair of touchdowns.

Louisiana-Lafayette -3 Western Kentucky
The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 in the Sun Belt and have a chance to match their high-water mark for Sun Belt wins after just 5 games (won 5 in 2005 and 2008). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is coming off their first two-game win streak since joining IA in 2008. Louisiana-Lafayette is one of the upper-echelon Sun Belt teams (along with Arkansas State, Florida International, and Louisiana-Monroe) and should be able to beat the Hilltoppers by at least a field goal.

Northern Illinois -14 Buffalo
Outside of their game against Wisconsin, the Huskies from Northern Illinois have put at least 40 points on the board against each opponent. They currently rank as the best offense in the MAC by a mile. Outside of an upset of Ohio two weeks ago, the Bulls from Buffalo have been relatively non-competitive this season. Northern Illinois should get to 40 again and win this rather handily.

Virginia -5.5 NC State
If you buy into the SDPI numbers, Virginia is a real sleeper in the ACC. With the luck I have had this year, I will be taking a flyer on them to take out the Wolfpack at home.

Mid-Season SDPI: ACC, Big 12, and SEC

2011-10-17T13:26:00.000-07:00

Back by popular demand, its the mid-season SDPI ratings! For the uninitiated, we'll be taking a statistical look at each conference race using SDPI to see who might be under or over-rated. Don't know what SDPI is? Its a yardage based measure of team strength based on how well team's perform within their league. This week, we'll take a look at the ACC, Big 12, and SEC. And some housekeeping notes, these numbers only include league games. So any non-conference games, whether it was against a IAA cupcake or a national power is not included. In addition, the SDPI ratings include in parentheses where each team ranks in the conference in terms of offense, defense, and total. Enjoy.

We'll start with the ACC. Here are the up-to-the-minute standings.

Now here are the SDPI ratings.
Boston College: The Eagles have been the worst team in the ACC by a longshot. The 12-year bowl streak is as good as over.

Clemson: The Tigers have been the best, and most impressive team in the ACC. They actually have a pretty good shot at winning their last four conference games. Using a modified version of the projection system based on current SDPI and simulating their four remaining league games (North Carolina, @Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and @ NC State) using the log 5 method, I project the Tigers have about a 1 in 3 shot (32%) of finishing 8-0 in the ACC.

Florida State: I know they haven't lived up to the preseason hype, but let's look at the facts. Florida State has lost to a pair of top-10 teams (Oklahoma and Clemson), with one coming on the road, and both in doubt in the 4th quarter). In their other loss, they committed 5 turnovers and still only lost by 5. They may not lose again in the regular season.

Maryland: The Terps have been all over the place in games in and out of conference. Their running quarterback, CJ Brown, has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the games where he has seen significant action. However, he is very raw as a passer, having completed just 46% of his throws on the season. The Terps needs to win 4 of their last 6 to get to a bowl. It won't be easy.

NC State: NC State is one of only 3 ACC teams (Duke and Virginia are the others) to have played just a pair of league games. NC State has yet to beat a team likely headed for the postseason (beat two IAA teams and Central Michigan).

Wake Forest: This is a typical Jim Grobe era Wake Forest team. Good enough to hang around and beat mediocre to above-average conference foes, but lacking the talent to compete with the heavy hitters in the conference. At 4-2, this week's game in Durham is vital to attaining bowl eligibility.

Duke: Poor, poor Duke. If they hadn't lost to Richmond to open the season, they would be sitting at 4-2 and have an outside shot at bowl eligibility. Instead, at 3-3, I don't think their are 3 wins to be had over the remainder of their schedule.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets have seen diminishing returns for their option attack since conference play started. They opened up with 496 yards against North Carolina, had 413 versus NC State, 386 against Maryland, and in their loss to Virginia were held to a season-low 296 yards.

Miami: Does Miami have the worst defense in the ACC? I doubt it, but Maryland, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina all had their best in-conference offensive performances against the Hurricanes.

North Carolina: Quarterback Bryn Renner has completed over 75% of his passes on the season, but the Tar Heels rank just 9th in the ACC in offense.

Virginia: Is Virginia really the second best team in the ACC? I doubt it, but they are probably better than most people believe. Virginia has only played two league games, but they outgained both North Carolina and Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech: After scoring just 3 points in their ACC opener against Clemson, the Hokies have rediscovered their offensive mojo against Miami and Wake Forest, putting up a combined 76 points.

And now the Big 12.

And now the SDPI ratings.Baylor: You know there are some bad defenses in the Big 12 when Baylor only ranks fourth from the bottom. In order to attain bowl eligibility for the second straight year, the Bears will probably have to pull off at least one upset in their final 6 games.

Iowa State: That 3-0 start seems like ages ago. They seem to have at least one huge upset in them per year under head coach Paul Rhoads (at Nebraska in 2009 and at Texas last year). Their opportunity this year could come on Saturday at home against Texas A&M.

Kansas: The good news: Kansas has some semblance of an offense. The bad news: Every IA opponent in 2001 has averaged at least 6 yards per play.

Kansas State: Wow. Smoke and mirrors. How have the Wildcats started 3-0 despite their less than down-to-down performance? Four reasons. Turnover margin. The Wildcats are +6 in the turnover department in their 3 league games. Non-offensive touchdowns. The Wildcats were able to stay close with Texas Tech while their offense struggled in the first half thanks to an interception and a kickoff return for touchdowns. Close games. Including non-conference action, the Wildcats are 5-0 in one-score games. Luck. Kansas State's conference foes have combined to go 3 for 8 kicking field goals against them. While the Wildcats are probably overrated (number 12 in the latest AP poll), after this week's game against Kansas, they will likely be 7-0 when they host Oklahoma on Halloween Weekend.

Missouri: All of Missouri's losses have either been close (seven each to Arizona State and Kansas State) or against a great team (Oklahoma). Their losses have also all come on the road. They may be the best 3-loss team in the country. If they 'upset' Oklahoma State at home on Saturday, don't be too surprised.

Oklahoma: The Sooners are a great team. Groundbreaking stuff. Their national title hopes may all come down to a date in Stillwater on the first weekend in December.

Oklahoma State: The numbers suggest they may not be quite as good as their top-10 ranking. If they escape Columbia with a win on Saturday, I'll change my mind.

Texas: When they were playing UCLA and Iowa State, the offense looked like it was fixed. Against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, not so much. The Longhorns have a bye this weekend and a functional bye against Kansas the following week, so maybe they can get it fixed for real.

Texas A&M: Take away a pair of huge blown second-half leads and the Aggies would be on their way to justifying their preseason hype.

Texas Tech: Look out for the Red Raiders in the second-half. While they are just 1-2 in the league (and likely 1-3 after visiting Norman this weekend), they have played well on both sides of the ball.

And now on to the SEC.And the SDPI ratings.Florida: Things have not been pretty since John Brantley went out with an injury against Alabama. In their first two conference games, the Gators rolled over Tennessee and Kentucky, averaging 434 yards per game. In their last 3 games, granted against stiffer competition (Alabama, LSU, and Auburn), the Gators have averaged just 210 yards per game.

Georgia: Lazarus, come forth. Mark Richt and the Bulldogs have righted the ship since opening with consecutive defeats to Boise State and South Carolina.

Kentucky: Competing with Ole Miss as the worst team in the SEC this season. Good news! The teams do play each other in Lexington on November 5th, so it will be settled on the field. Check your local listings.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks are a strange team. Are they good or are they just a solid team that has caught some breaks? Good teams crush lesser opponents. The Gamecocks have absolutely destroyed the two bad SEC teams they've played, outgaining Vanderbilt and Kentucky by over 800 yards. But good teams tend to play well against other good teams. South Carolina has been outgained in each of their other 3 SEC games, but has manged to win two of them. With Marcus Lattimore out and little depth behind Connor Shaw, the season-ending gauntlet of @Tennessee, @Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson will be much more challenging.

Tennessee: After they get crushed by Alabama this week, the schedule does ease up ever so little. Middle Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky remain, so another bowl bid is a legitimate possibility.

Vanderbilt: Can they get to a bowl? Probably need to beat Army, Kentucky, and Wake Forest in order to get to their second bowl game in 4 seasons.

Alabama: I know its early, but Alabama has been obscenely dominant in its first 7 games. They did face a pair of cupcakes in the non-conference (Kent State and North Texas), but they also pushed around a Penn State team that has been better than expected. If they play as well over the second-half of their conference schedule as they have over the first, we could be comparing this team to the 2001 Hurricanes come mid-January.

Arkansas: The 'Hogs have a low-ranking for two reasons. They have only played two league games thus far (every other team has played at least three) and one of them came against the buzzsaw that is Alabama. Conveniently, their next two games are against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, so they should rise in the ratings shortly.

Auburn: Remember back after the Utah State escape when many folks thought Auburn would struggle to get to 6-6? Well, they are 5-2 with Ole Miss and Samford still left on the schedule.

LSU: The Tigers are very good. However, there have not been many teams in the last decade that could beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, something LSU must do if it even has designs on playing in the SEC Championship Game. While we're on LSU, here's a little mini-rant. CBS, don't put LSU or Alabama on the 3:30 national game unless they are playing each other. Those afternoon games have been unwatchable. LSU bear-hugged Tennessee 38-7 this week. Last week, they throttled Florida 41-11. Two weeks ago, Auburn and South Carolina was competitive, but the primetime game (Alabama at Florida) was another four-touchdown pummeling. Three weeks ago, Alabama beat Arkansas 38-14. Save those bloodbaths for ESPNU.

Mississippi: The Rebels are doing all they can to give Kentucky a run for their money at the bottom of the SEC.

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are a bit unlucky to be 0-4, but with Alabama and Arkansas left on the slate, the best they can hope for is probably 6-6.

Fab Five: Week VII

2011-10-11T16:06:00.000-07:00

Depending upon whether you followed my picks on favorites or underdogs, you either had a great or terrible week. I was 5-5 overall with 4-1 mark on favorites and a reciprocal 1-4 mark picking dogs. My yearly record remains an unflattering 26-34. I will strive for just my second winning week on the season. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 11-19

San Jose State +6.5 Hawaii
Don't look now, but San Jose State has quietly become a solid (WAC) team, especially at home. In their two home games thus far, the Spartans have hung with Nevada and beaten New Mexico State. Catching almost a touchdown against a Hawaii team that has been all over the map is a good bet.

Michigan +1.5 Michigan State
Hard to figure this spread out. I know Michigan struggled in the first half of their first road trip at Northwestern last week. I know Michigan State has won 3 in a row in this series. But who has Michigan State beaten? Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, and the rotting husk of Ohio State. Michigan and Michigan State have faced one common opponent. Notre Dame beat Michigan State by 18 and lost to Michigan by 4. I'm not a huge fan of using the transitive property, but this spread should be reversed.

Miami +3 North Carolina
Despite the adversity surrounding the program, Miami has played well early on despite being 2-3. All their losses have come by a single score versus Maryland (8 points), Kansas State (4 points), and Virginia Tech (3 points). The Hurricanes battled back from an early deficit against Virginia Tech last week, showing they have some fight that was lacking under the previous administration. Meanwhile, North Carolina has quietly started 5-1, but has been less than impressive in close home wins versus Louisville and Syracuse. In fact, the Tar Heels have been outgained in their last 4 games and appear primed for a home upset at the hands of The U.

BYU +1.5 Oregon State
The BYU Cougars finally showed some offensive prowess the past two weeks with Riley Nelson at quarterback. Nelson led the Cougars to a comeback win against Utah State two weeks ago, and with Nelson seeing significant action, the team has averaged 447 yards per game versus 291 yards per game without him. Oregon State has shown signs of life the past two weeks, leading Arizona State for a time costing Mike Stoops his job in their home upset of Arizona. Still, like the Michigan game, this line should probably be reversed.

Kansas State +3 Texas Tech
Is it time to start drinking the Bill Snyder Koolaid? The Wildcats have won 3 consecutive games in which they were betting underdogs and are a perfect 4-0 versus the spread this year. Kansas State is not an elite team, and they will likely have their dreams of perfection dashed in a big way by both of the two Oklahoma schools. However, perfection should continue against a Texas Tech program that has lost its mojo since firing Mike Leach.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall 15-15

South Carolina -2 Mississippi State
I figured this line would be about a touchdown or more after South Carolina destroyed perhaps the SEC's worst team, Kentucky, 54-3 last week. For some reason, the betting public remains high on Mississippi State. For the life of me, I can't imagine why. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 on the season, with their wins all coming at home against Memphis, Louisiana Tech, and UAB. Memphis and UAB have yet to win a game versus a IA opponent. Louisiana Tech won their first IA game last week. Mississippi State has been even worse Against the Spread (ATS), covering against the aforementioned dregs of Conference USA (Memphis and UAB). Newly anointed Gamecock quarterback Connor Shaw may struggle in his first ever road start, but the Gamecocks are good enough to win this one by at least a touchdown.

Georgia Tech -7.5 Virginia
Georgia Tech was stymied for the first time all season last week against Maryland. Their vaunted triple-option failed to produce 400 yards of total offense and at least 30 points for the first time all season. However, the defense stepped up and held the Terps just 16 points, the fewest they have allowed all season. This game is on the road, but in their last two home games, Virginia has lost to Southern Mississippi and edged Idaho 21-20 in OT. Georgia Tech, questionable defense and all, should take this one by double-digits.

Georgia -11 Vanderbilt
Hey, look who's back in the SEC East race. Left for dead after their close home loss to South Carolina, the Bulldogs have won 3 straight in the SEC, including two on the road (though one was at Ole Miss) to cool down Mark Richt's seat. The Bulldogs have done it with defense, holding Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee to 35 combined points and just two offensive touchdowns. After scoring 3 touchdowns in their SEC opener against Ole Miss, the Commodores have not found the endzone in games against South Carolina and Alabama. The offense has put together just 267 yards combined in those games. Its hard to imagine Vanderbilt scoring more than 10 points here, so if Georgia can get to 24 they will cover this number.

Penn State -12 Purdue
After being ground to a fine paste by Alabama and nearly being upset at home by Temple, Penn State has quietly put together a solid run. They blasted Eastern Michigan, and then won a pair of old-school games 16-10 and 13-3 versus Indiana and Iowa. The defense has really gotten on track, holding Indiana and Iowa to 509 yards of total offense in those two games. While the offense has failed to put the ball in the endzone often, they did pile up 859 yards of total offense against the Hoosiers and Hawkeyes, indicating they are likely to break out and put 30 on the board against a suspect defense. In games not involving IAA schools or Minnesota, Purdue qualifies as a suspect defense. The Boilermakers allowed over 450 yards per game to their other 3 foes (Middle Tennessee, Rice, and Notre Dame). Penn State should cure some of their offensive woes in this game.

Utah State -3.5 Fresno State
Utah State, a team that has played in just two bowl games since 1961, could be headed for a WAC championship. While they have yet to play a league game, the Aggies were about as impressive as a team could be in the non-conference and still be 2-3. They lost heartbreakers to Auburn, Colorado State, and BYU. In their other games, they waylayed a IAA school and Wyoming by a combined margin of 81 points. Utah State has been road tested, playing well in road losses to Auburn and BYU. Fresno has already lost consecutive home games to Boise (understandable) and Ole Miss (not so much). Look for the Aggies to make it 3 in a row.

Fab Five: Week VI

2011-10-05T14:50:00.000-07:00

I finally broke through last week, posting my first winning week of the season. The 6-4 mark was bit of a letdown considering I was 5-1 at one point on Saturday. However, when your handicapping has been as poor as mine has, you take any victory you can. My yearly record is still an ugly 21-29. Hopefully I can stay on track this week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 10-15

Cal +24 Oregon
Suddenly their 8-point loss at Washington doesn't look quite so bad. The Bears outgained the Huskies in their trip to Seattle, but fell 31-23. The Huskies proved they are a force to be reckoned with in the Pac-12 when they went on the road the following week and blasted Utah 31-14. This is a tough spot for Cal, and I doubt they have what it takes to win. However, they have scored at least 23 points in each of their games versus IA competition this season. Oregon is not known for their defense, having given up 40 and 31 points to the two BCS conference foes they have faced thus far. Even if Cal is never really in this game, the large number will leave Cal in position for a backdoor cover.

Texas +10 Vs Oklahoma
After a shaky start, Texas appears to be back. After a close call with BYU, the Longhorns did what Texas is supposed to do and dispensed UCLA and Iowa State in games that were never really competitive. Now they get to see how far they've come when they take on Big 12 favorite Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Texas has fared well against the Sooners since 2004, winning four of six. In fact, Oklahoma has not won this game by double-digits since their 12-0 shutout in 2004. Look for this game to follow the script of the last few, with it not being decided until the 4th quarter.

Iowa +3.5 Penn State
The eternal optimist would look at Penn State's game last week against Indiana, a narrow 16-10 win, and see a team that gained 464 yards. However, a pessimist would see a team that completed just 16 of 36 passes against an Indiana defense that made North Texas and Ball State look like major conference teams. Iowa has beaten Penn State 3 straight and 8 of the last 9 times their paths have crosses. Iowa is not an elite team, but they are good enough to win in Happy Valley.

Southern Miss +3 Navy
Every week before the spreads come out, I look at a few games and try to guess the spread. This was one game I looked at this week. I guessed this spread correctly, I just had the wrong team favored. Based on early returns, Southern Miss seems to be the stronger team. Outside of their annual conference brainfart (this year it came against Marshall), the Eagles have played very well, including an upset two weeks ago at Virginia. Meanwhile, Navy has played South Carolina close (hey, who hasn't), but their wins over Western Kentucky and Delaware (IAA) are less than impressive. Jump on the Southern Miss bandwagon, as they are likely the best team in the eastern half of Conference USA.

Bowling Green +10 Western Michigan
I know they were drubbed 55-10 by West Virginia last week, but there is a lot to like about Bowling Green. The Falcons only other loss came by a single point to Wyoming. In addition to that, the Falcons have already won twice on the road (knocking off Idaho and Miami). The Falcons have already exceeded their win total from their woeful 2010 campaign (just two wins all year). Plus , Bowling Green has a solid recent history Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit underdog, going 10-6 against the number in such circumstances since 2006.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall 11-14

Arizona -2 Oregon State
Times are rough in Tucson and Corvallis. Arizona has not beaten a IA team since they knocked off UCLA 29-21 on the day before Halloween last season. They lost 5 straight to close 2010, and after opening the 2011 season with a shellacking of Northern Arizona, a IAA school, the Wildcats have dropped 4 straight. Amazingly, 8 of their 9 losses have come to the same four teams. They have lost twice each to Oklahoma State, Stanford, Southern Cal, and Oregon. Their other loss in that span came to arch-rival Arizona State. The Wildcats have not fared much better ATS in that span either, going just 1-7-1. However, they finally draw a game against a non-elite foe. Oregon State has lost 6 straight games dating back to last season, including a home loss at the hands of Sacramento State (IAA). The Beavers played better in their past two games (losses to UCLA and Arizona State), but are a far cry from the salty competitive teams usually fielded by Mike Riley.

Arkansas State -2 Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas State has a chance to jump out to a 2-0 record in Sun Belt play when they visit the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe. The Red Wolves are no strangers to road trips, having played well in competitive losses to Illinois and Virginia Tech. The Red Wolves broke through and notched their first road win of the season last week at Western Kentucky. Louisiana-Monroe has also been a road warrior early on, having lost at Florida State, TCU, and Iowa. However, none of those games were particularly close. Arkansas State has proven to be the better team early on, and with a spread this small, they are one of the better values on the board this week.

Toledo -21 Eastern Michigan
Toledo is a little over-valued after upsetting Temple last week. However, Eastern Michigan is not a good football team. The Eagles barely survived perhaps the worst MAC team (and possibly worst IA team) Akron last week 31-23. Toledo has won 4 straight in this series, with each win coming by at least 24 points. Look for that trend to continue.

NC State -11 Central Michigan
As much as a MAC team can be, Central Michigan is a little overvalued now. Their upset over Northern Illinois last week has artificially deflated this line. The Chippewas are just 5-8 ATS on the road against teams from BCS conferences. This season they are 0-3 on the road, with their closest road loss coming by 14 points to a bad Kentucky team. They lost by a cumulative score of 89-21 when they traveled to face Western Michigan and Michigan State. After consecutive lopsided losses to Cincinnati and Georgia Tech, the Wolfpack will be able to lick their wounds against the Chippewas.

Michigan -7.5 Northwestern
I think it may be time for the general public to come around on Michigan. Obviously, they haven't yet with their spread versus Northwestern being just over a touchdown. Michigan has played fantastically on offense yet again, and their defense has improved to mediocre. That's a recipe for their first winning conference season since 2007. The only thing that should concern you here is the fact that this will be Michigan's first road game of the year. Otherwise, they look like they are about 3 touchdowns better than Northwestern.

Fab Five: Week V

2011-09-28T17:30:00.000-07:00

Another week, another losing record. My unprecedented run of suckitude continued with another 4-6. This bring my yearly tally to 15-25. Ouch. Hopefully this week I can get back on track. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 6-14

UTEP +16.5 Houston
Care to hazard a guess as to who the lone remaining unbeaten mid-major not named Boise State is? Its Houston. The Cougars are 4-0, but they have been less than impressive in winning their first four non-league games. They beat UCLA by at home, knocked off North Texas by 25 on the road, edged Louisiana Tech by one after a furious comeback, and shut-out IAA Georgia State last weekend. As always, their offense has been dynamic, averaging 536 yards per game against IA opponents. However, their defense is allowing 429 yards per game to those same foes. UTEP is far from an elite team, but the Miners have at least faced some stiff competition, losing on the road at South Florida. Houston is just 1-2 playing UTEP in El Paso since joining Conference USA. Their lone win came by three points. Houston will be lucky to leave El Paso with their unblemished record intact on Thursday.

Rice +15.5 Southern Miss
Rice is just 1-2 and likely headed to a third straight losing season. However, their opening schedule has been quite challenging. The Owls opened their season with three games against BCS conference teams. They lost to Texas and Baylor on the road, but in between those games, upset Purdue at home. Meanwhile, Southern Miss turned some heads with a win over Virginia of the ACC last week (one of the few predictions I got right). The Golden Eagles may well be the best team in Conference USA, but they are a little over-valued here. Southern Miss may well win by two touchdowns, but that won't be enough to cover.

Rutgers +3 Syracuse
Syracuse may well be the worst 3-1 team in the country. The Orange have been outgained by roughly 65 yards per game in the early going, despite playing a IAA school (Rhode Island) and a MAC team (Toledo). Each of their wins have come by 7 points or fewer (with two coming in overtime). The Orange are not very proficient at anything, save avoiding interceptions (having thrown just one all season). This game is the Big East opener for both teams and pits the Orange against a Syracuse team looking to rebound from its first losing season since 2004. The Scarlet Knights are not particularly adept at anything either, save forcing fumbles, having forced 13 in just 3 games. These teams appear pretty evenly matched, so take the team getting points in this one.

Auburn +10 South Carolina
For the first time all season, South Carolina finally covered the spread last week, beating Vanderbilt 21-3. The Gamecocks will look to make it two covers in a row and start 5-0 when they take on defending national champion Auburn. Like the Gamecocks, Auburn has only one cover under its belt on the young season, winning at home against Mississippi State as a touchdown underdog. South Carolina should win this game, but they are not to be trusted laying more than a touchdown against any SEC team not named Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Vandy.

Clemson +7 Virginia Tech
Clemson would be Exhibit A for ignoring early season close shaves with IAA schools (Oregon State would be the counterpoint). The Tigers edged Wofford by just 8 points, but since that game have beaten a pair of quality programs (Auburn and Florida State) at home. This marks the first road game for the Tigers and their fancy new offense. Virginia Tech is somewhat of an unknown, having yet to face a team from a BCS conference. The Hokies were less than impressive in each of their games against IA schools, failing to cover the spread once. This should be a tight game that is decided in the final minutes.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall 9-11

Colorado -3 Washington State
Since their program began cratering in 2008, the Cougars from Washington State are just 1-17 in true road games. They are a more respectable 8-10 ATS (Against the Spread) in those games, but only two of those spreads, the first game in the streak (+3 in 2008 versus Baylor) and the most last game (+6.5 versus San Diego State two weeks ago), have been below 17 points. Colorado is not a good team, but they are a different team at home. They should win this one rather handily.

Louisiana Lafayette -9.5 Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Lafayette served notice that they are a force to be reckoned with in the Sun Belt when they knocked off Florida International last week. The Panthers were 3-0 with victories over Louisville from the Big East and UCF from Conference USA. The win was the third straight for Louisiana-Lafayette since a season-opening loss to Oklahoma State. The Ragin' Cajuns should have more than enough firepower to knock off a Florida Atlantic team that has scored just one offensive touchdown in three games.

Louisiana Tech -3.5 Hawaii
If Syracuse is the worst 3-1 team in the country, Louisiana Tech may be the best 1-3 team. The Bulldogs 3 losses have come by 2, 1, and 6 points. Those defeats have also come against likely bowl teams in Southern Miss, Houston, and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs should get their first win over a IA team when Hawaii visits Saturday. The Bulldogs have won two of the past three against Hawaii in Ruston and have covered in all three (lost by a point in 2007 as 28-point underdogs) and should win by a comfortable margin here.

Notre Dame -12 Purdue
Don't look now, but the Irish have won two in a row since their early season meltdowns against South Florida and Michigan. The Irish have even played a modicum of defense in their two wins, holding Michigan State and Pitt to an average of 313 yards and 12.5 points per game. In fact, outside of the Michigan debacle, Notre Dame has played quite well on defense. If the Irish can avoid being overly generous with the football, they should have no trouble with a bad Purdue team.

Georgia -7 Mississippi State
The Georgia Bulldogs are slowly turning their season around after an 0-2 start. In fact, they have actually outplayed both of their SEC foes, but were done in by turnovers and a great fake punt against South Carolina. Georgia should continue to fly under the radar for the remainder of the season and should be a great play ATS.

Fab Five: Week IV

2011-09-21T15:29:00.000-07:00

Last week marked progress, as I improved from 2-8 to 4-6. However, I have yet to post a winning week thus far in the season and stand before you with an unflattering 11-19 mark on the year. Thankfully, time remains for redemption. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 4-11

UCF +2.5 BYU
Last week UCF suffered a bitter loss to an in-state team, falling 17-10 to Florida International. The UCF defense continued its stellar play, holding the Panthers to just 238 total yards and just a single offensive touchdown. For the season, the Knights have yet to allow a passing touchdown. However, they were also unable to generate much offense, allowing six sacks and and scoring just once themselves. They have also yet to pass for a touchdown of their own this season. Their opponents on Friday night, BYU, is also coming off a loss to an in-state rival. BYU dropped their Holy War battle with Utah by the narrow margin of 54-10. The Cougars lost six fumbles, and committed seven turnovers in all, contributing greatly to the humbling defeat. BYU has yet to score more than 16 points on the young season, and against a defense as talented a UCF's they should not be favored here.

Ball State +4 Army
Army enters this game in the rare position of being a road favorite. The Black Knights have been road favorites just twice since 2006 and are 0-2 ATS (Against The Spread) in those games. In fact, since 2006, the Black Knights are just 4-8 ATS as favorites. Ball State is currently unbeaten at home on the young season, having knocked off Indiana and Buffalo in close games. Expect this one to be a hard-fought close game, won yet again by the home team.

Tulane +10 Duke
Speaking of unfamiliar territory, I couldn't find the last time Duke was a double-digit favorite, but it was at least 2004. The Blue Devils are a little over-valued after their road win against a reeling Boston College program. The Blue Devils face a Tulane team that also scored a huge conference road win last week. While the Blue Devils edged Boston College by a single point, the Green Wave bludgeoned UAB 49-10. Tulane rushed and passed for over 250 yards apiece against the Blazers and averaged over 7 yards per play. This was their best showing since averaging a hair over 8 yards per play against IAA McNeese State in 2009. That result, like the Duke/Boston College final, probably says a lot more about UAB than Tulane, but the Green Wave should be able to hang in here and keep this one close.

Southern Miss +3 Virginia
Both teams enter this game 2-1, with Southern Miss having the much more questionable loss (versus a Marshall team that was later blown out by Ohio). However, that loss fits with the MO of Southern Miss very well. In the four season span from 2007-2010, the Golden Eagles dropped nine conference games in which they were the betting line favorite. They were 18-9 straight up as a favorite in conference play, but the Golden Eagles have lost numerous times as a large favorite. For example, they lost to Rice as a 20-point favorite in 2007, to Memphis as a 17-point favorite that same year, and to UAB as a 10-point favorite in both 2009 and 2010. The Golden Eagles appear to fall asleep against their conference brethren when they are a large favorite. They won't have that problem going on the road versus a BCS conference foe.

West Virginia +6.5 LSU
LSU has been perhaps the most impressive team thus far in the early going. The Tigers have won a pair of games against quality foes (Oregon and Mississippi State), by double-digits, away from home. If that doesn't scream number one in the nation, I don't know what does. The Tigers have won with a brutal defense, holding Oregon to their lowest yardage output (325) since they gained just 317 in a narrow win over Cal last November. They then held Mississippi State under 200 yards for the first time since Sylvester Croom's last game (a 45-0 whitewashing at the hands of Ole Miss). I expect them to hold West Virginia in check as well. However, the Tigers are notorious for not covering the spread under Les Miles, going 22-30-3 ATS as a favorite under the Mad Hatter. I expect LSU to win, but in Morgantown, this one should be within a touchdown.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall 7-8

Georgia -10 Ole Miss
Georgia enjoyed a much-needed below the radar beatdown of Coastal Carolina last week. The heat has been turned down a notch on Mark Richt, but a loss here would certainly be an incendiary event. No fear though, Houston Nutt has his own problems. The Rebels were throttled by Vanderbilt, and have scored just 20 points in two games versus IA foes. To make matters worse, they were also outgained in their win versus IAA Southern Illinois. Barring some food poisoning scare, the Bulldogs should win easily here and turn the heat up on Nutt.

Fresno State -3 Idaho
Fresno finally earned their first win of the young season last week against IAA North Dakota after whiffing against a pair of BCS teams (California and Nebraska) in their first two games. The Bulldogs were reasonably competitive in their road test at Nebraska, losing 42-29. Meanwhile, idaho has done nothing to indicate they are any threat in the WAC this season, failing to generate more than 280 yards of offense in a game against a IA foe. Fresno has won their three conference trips to the Kibbie dome by an average of 17.7 points, with none coming by fewer than 10 points. Look for more of the same here.

East Carolina -13 UAB
East Carolina deserved a bye after their opening gauntlet versus South Carolina and Virginia Tech (currently ranked 12th and 13th respectively). The Pirates acquitted themselves quite well in both games, jumping out to a big lead on the Gamecocks and staying even with Virginia Tech for virtually the entire game. They couldn't ask for a better antidote to their schedule ailment than a UAB team was throttled by both Florida (understandable) and Tulane (huh?) in their first two games. The Blazers have scored just 10 points in their first two games while allowing 88. Since becoming division rivals in 2005, the Pirates have won five of six games, with their average margin of victory at home coming by 19.7 points.

Texas Tech -20.5 Nevada
Suffice it to say, Nevada isn't quite the team they were last year. One season after knocking off Boise and finishing number 11 in the final polls, the Wolfpack began the 2011 season with a sizzling beatdown at the hands of Oregon, and followed that up with a narrow win over San Jose State. Texas Tech has hung at least 50 on its first two overmatched opponents (Texas State and New Mexico) and should do the same here.

Mississippi State -19.5 Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs have earned this one. After losing a nailbiter to Auburn and having the life squeezed out of them by LSU, Mississippi State needed a game to get their offensive confidence back. Louisiana Tech is no pushover, but Mississippi State should move the ball well and put enough points on the board to cover this number.

Fab Five: Week III

2011-09-13T17:48:00.000-07:00

So, um, yeah. Sorry about last week. To anyone who lost the proverbial farm taking any of my picks last week, I humbly apologize. I will try to do better. Last week's 2-8 nightmare leaves me sitting unpretty at 7-13 on the season. However, the season is young, so I still have time to dig myself out of this hole. Onward and upward! As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 3-7

Washington State +6 San Diego State
After last week's debacle, I am certainly taking a chance picking Washington State, a team that has beaten exactly 4 IA teams since Paul Wulff became coach in 2008. However, the Cougars were quite impressive in knocking off UNLV last weekend, 59-7. That was their largest margin of victory since nipping Idaho 56-10 in 2006. Meanwhile, San Diego State was less than impressive in edging Army 23-20. Nearly a touchdown is too much for San Diego State to be laying here.

West Virginia +1 Maryland
The Mountaineers looked less than impressive, at least in the first half, of their eventual rout of Norfolk State. West Virginia trailed 12-10 at the half, but came out and disposed of the Spartans with a 45-0 run in the second half. Maryland had the week off to celebrate its 32-24 Labor Day win over Miami. West Virginia has not lost to Maryland since 2003, winning 5 straight in the rivalry. The wrong team is favored here. Look for West Virginia to make it 6 in a row.

Arizona +10.5 Stanford
Last year Arizona came into this game ranked 13th in the nation with a glistening 7-1 record and a shot at the Rose Bowl. Stanford eviscerated them 42-17 and Arizona would not win again all season. This year the locale is Tucson, and not Palo Alto. That is a key distinction. Arizona is 7-1 ATS (Against the Spread) as a home underdog since 2006 (with 4 outright wins). As a double-digit home underdog, they are 4-0 ATS. Look for Arizona to keep this one close, and perhaps put an end to Stanford's top-10 ranking.

Virginia +10 North Carolina
Last season, North Carolina embarrassed the Cavs in Charlottesville 44-10. However, based on recent history, that is more the exception than the rule in this series. Virginia has won 7 of the past 10 meetings, including 3 of the past 5 in Chapel Hill. Last season's trouncing was also the first North Carolina victory by double-digits since 1998. Look for Virginia to keep this one close and perhaps even emerge with an outright upset.

Kent State +17.5 Kansas State
The days of 66-3 curb-stompings against non-BCS foes in Manhattan have faded. The Wildcats defeated UCF 17-13 last season and edged Louisiana-Lafayette 45-37 in 2008 to highlight their less than dominant recent track record. In fact, since 2004, the Wildcats have beaten non-BCS conference foes at home by an average of just 19 points per game. There have been a few beatings, most notably against Sun Belt foes, but for the most part, the game have been competitive. Kent State has the defense to hold a less-than-explosive Kansas State offense in check. They don't have the offense to win outright, but they should keep this one relatively close.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 1-4
Overall 4-6

Ole Miss -2 Vanderbilt
Yes, Vanderbilt won last week, but their game against Connecticut likely set offensive football back a few years. The Commodores and Huskies combined for 452 total yards and just 2 offensive touchdowns (both scored by Vanderbilt). Ole Miss was hardly impressive in their win over Southern Illinois, but should be able to do enough to hold a low-wattage Vanderbilt offense down while winning by at least a field goal.

Notre Dame -4 Michigan State
Eventually, Notre Dame has to win a game right? The Irish have opened the season 0-2 despite gaining over 1000 yards and averaging nearly 7 yards (6.8) per snap. How? Poor defense (allowed over 700 yards and nearly 6 yards per snap) and turnovers (10). If they can hold onto the ball, they should be able to beat a Michigan State team that looked weak against a IAA foe (Youngstown State), and then dominated perhaps the worst IA team (Florida Atlantic) last week.

Illinois -1 Arizona State
Arizona State finally won a close game last week, upending Missouri 37-30 in overtime. The Sun Devils were an unlucky 2-10 in one-score games from 2008-2010. Thus far in 2011, the Sun Devils have been their typical outlaw selves, ranking 100th in the nation in penalties per game (after ranking no better than 104th in the nation the past 3 seasons). Meanwhile, Illinois has quietly put together a pair of dominant performance against lesser competition, besting Arkansas State and South Dakota State by a combined 71 points. Illinois is rightly favored here, and giving less than a field goal, they should be the pick.

Penn State -7.5 Temple
This low spread is likely an overreaction to Penn State's offensive ineptitude against Alabama. If you didn't know, Alabama may have the best defense in the entire nation. Its OK to look bad against them. Temple is no punching bag, but their first 2 games have come against a IAA school (Villanova) and an awful IA team (Akron). Penn State should be able to win by more than one score here.

Texas -4 UCLA
More hair of the dog? Texas was one of the teams that aided in my 2-8 stinker last week. They may not have gotten all the kinks worked out of the offense, but they did decide to jettison quarterback Garret Gilbert. The defense played well against BYU and should do enough against UCLA to get the Longhorns a win here.

Fab Five: Week II

2011-09-07T15:46:00.000-07:00

My Week I picks were like the new episodes of Family Guy. A few highlights, some forgettable moments, and all-in-all, nothing to write home about. I went a respectable 5-5. Let's see if we can end Week II with a winning record. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 2-3

Ball State +20 South Florida
Remember back in the Big East Preview when I wrote that teams coached by Skip Holtz excelled at winning ugly? The Notre Dame game was a perfect microcosm of that over-arching fact. South Florida was doubled up in yardage (508-254). They averaged a whopping 3.5 yards per play, while Notre Dame rolled up and down the field averaging 6.5 yards per snap. And yet, who emerged the victor? South Florida gladly accepted five Notre Dame turnovers, including three in the red zone, and one that was returned for a score, while committing none of their own. The Bulls are probably getting a little too much love as they return home to face a Ball State team that was also victorious in its opener against a favored opponent. The Cardinals knocked off Indiana 27-20 and are actually 9-2 ATS (Against the Spread) as an underdog versus BCS conference teams since 2006. I don't expect them to win this game, but they should stay within 3 touchdowns.

Utah +9.5 Southern Cal
Since the aura of invincibility departed the Coliseum in 2009, the Trojans are just 3-9 ATS as home favorites. In fact, the Trojans have lost four times at home as a betting line favorite since 2009 (8-4 straight up as a favorite) and of four of their eight wins have come by single digits. Utah did not show much in their opening night win against IAA Montana State, and are undervalued heading into their second game.

Cincinnati +6 Tennessee
The Bearcats were a major disappointment last season, following up consecutive BCS berths with a 4-8 strugglefest. However, the Bearcats still moved the ball very well. Their downfall was turnovers, and lots of them. Their season long margin of -15 put them consistently behind the 8-ball and hindered their shot at another Big East title. Turnovers tend to ebb and flow, and with fewer giveaways, the Bearcats should return to bowl eligibility. Catching nearly a touchdown against a Tennessee team that got hot thanks to a soft second-half schedule last year makes them a solid selection this week.

Duke +22 Stanford
Duke has actually been a solid play under David Cutcliffe. That is, as long as they aren't playing Richmond. In an interesting split, the Blue Devils are 0-2 straight up versus Richmond, but 3-0 straight up versus UVA under Cut. Overall, the Blue Devils are 17-14-1 ATS versus IA opponents under Cut. Stanford is traveling cross-country, and the last two Pac-10 (now 12) teams to travel cross-country to face an ACC foe did not fare well. Cal visited Maryland in 2008 as 14 point-favorites, but lost 35-27. In 2009, Stanford visited Wake Forest, in a game I was fortunate to attend. The Cardinal were 3-point underdogs and lost 24-17. Don't discount the effects of travel here. Duke probably won't win, but don't be surprised if this one is close.

Connecticut +2.5 Vanderbilt
Connecticut is 9-6 ATS versus non-conference BCS teams (and Notre Dame) since 2006. If we only look at road games, they are 5-2 ATS in that span. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is just 6-14 ATS as a home favorite in the last decade. Vanderbilt did not execute particularly well last week versus Elon, racking up 45 points, but gaining only 309 total yards. Vandy should probably not be favored over any BCS conference team with the exception of perhaps Washington State.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall 3-2

Minnesota -21 New Mexico State
The Jerry Killy era at Minnesota nearly began with a huge upset against the Trojans of Southern California. However, after digging a huge hole, the Gophers were unable to come all the way back, losing 19-17. This week, they get a breather in the form of the Aggies from New Mexico State. The Aggies have covered just once against a BCS conference foe since 2006 (1-5 ATS). Look for that trend to continue here.

Ohio State -19 Toledo
This spread seems unreasonably small. Ohio State is still a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10 and are actually 6-3 ATS versus MAC teams since 2006. Toledo is better than Akron (lost 42-0 versus Ohio State last week), but should still find it tough to score against one of the nation's best defenses.

Texas -7 BYU
After you count the money you win from betting this game, be sure to thank the 2010 Texas Longhorns for lowering expectations. Texas is actually 7-3 ATS versus non-BCS conference teams at home since 2006. They were 1-1 last season, easily covering versus Florida Atlantic, but missing the cover versus Wyoming by half a point (won by 27, but were a 27.5-point favorite). The Cougars showed they were strong defensively last week, holding Ole Miss to 13 points and 208 total yards. However, they only generated a single offensive touchdown for themselves. Whatever offensive issues they may have, Texas is still elite on defense and should be able to hold BYU in check and score just enough to cover here.

Georgia Tech -11 Middle Tennessee State
The Blue Raiders nearly pulled off a road upset last week, but were stymied with a late comeback by Purdue in a 27-24 loss. The Blue Raiders moved the ball well against the Boilermakers, generating 460 yards of total offense. They may be able to do the same against a Georgia Tech defense that gave up 21 points and 301 total yards to Western Carolina. However, Georgia Tech should be able to effectively move the ball against the Blue Raiders and with only a modicum of defensive success should be able to cover here.

Purdue -1 Rice
Rice has not beaten a BCS conference opponent since they knocked off a winless Duke team in 2001. Purdue was far from dominant in their win versus Middle Tennessee State last week, but a spread this low is just too good to pass up.

Fab Five: Week I

2011-08-30T14:35:00.000-07:00

It's time once again for the weekly (though some might call it weakly) tradition where I give you 10 picks against the spread for your entertainment pleasure. Over the 4 seasons (and Frankie Valli) during which I have made these picks, my winning percentage has hovered right around 53%, or just above the break even point for gamblers. Here's to a winning percentage more robust this year. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

North Texas +14.5 Florida International
Over the past two seasons, IA mid-majors have taken on IA mid-majors 12 times on the season's opening weekend. The favorites are 2-10 ATS (Against the Spread) in that span. Double Digit favorites are just 1-4 ATS, and home favorites are just 1-7. In fact, the favored team is just 5-7 straight up in those 12 games! Florida International was the Sun Belt co-champ last season, and is rightfully favored to contend again. However, North Texas was much better than their 3-9 mark last season and seem poised to give the Panthers a game in Miami.

Bowling Green +7.5 Idaho
20 months ago, these teams staged a bowl game classic on Boise's blue field in the Humanitarian Bowl. Last season, both teams stumbled, with Bowling Green taking the larger plunge and falling to 2-10. The previous logic of mid-major versus mid-major applies here with the additional fact that Idaho must replace the maestro that made their team competitive the past two seasons in quarterback Nathan Enderle. With a new, relatively untested player under center, the spread in this game should be closer to a field goal.

Louisiana Tech +12.5 Southern Miss
Once again, we have the mid-major versus mid-major angle here. Southern Miss has the tools to win their first Conference USA championship since 2003. The Golden Eagles do play well at home (11-5 against IA schools under head coach Larry Fedora), but they are far from invulnerable ATS (9-7). Louisiana Tech is in the second year of Sonny Dykes' 'Air Raid' offense and could be one of the real sleeper teams in the WAC. The Bulldogs are worth a play here.

New Mexico State +7.5 Ohio
Deja vu? The mid-major versus mid-major logic once again applies here. New Mexico State is a bad team, but Ohio is traveling a great distance (over 1600 miles if you believe Google Maps). Ohio may be a contender to win the MAC, but they are not a college football power. A touchdown is too much for them to be giving in this game.

SMU +16 Texas A&M
Texas A&M is what I like to call a surprise top-10 team. Ranked 8th in the preaseason AP Poll, the Aggies were unranked in last year's preseason AP Poll. From 2006-2010, 7 teams began the season ranked in the AP top-10 after beginning the previous season unranked. They were, West Virginia (2006), Notre Dame (2006), Wisconsin (2007), Missouri (2008), Clemson (2008), Ole Miss (2009), and Oklahoma State (2009). Those teams all enjoyed some modicum of success, but were overrated by the general public. Only Ole Miss posted a winning record ATS (6-5). Collectively, those 7 teams went just 34-48-2 ATS. If you're wondering, that's a winning percentage of 41%. SMU may not win in College Station, but betting against the Aggies should be a good practice this season.

Five Faves I Like

Auburn -21 Utah State
Auburn is a shell of their BCS Championship team from last season, but as long as Gus Malzahn is the offensive coordinator, they should light up the scoreboard against teams like the Aggies. Remember, in 2009, before Cam Newton came on the scene, Auburn put up 91 combined points on Louisiana Tech and Ball State with Chris Todd, yes Chris Todd, at quarterback. They should win this game by about 4 touchdowns.

Missouri -17 Miami (Ohio)
Last season, Miami was very successful. They won the MAC, won 10 games, and lost to Missouri by 38 points. Miami doesn't figure to be better this season with a new coach and new schemes, and while Missouri may be a little worse, they should be able to cover a spread smaller than 3 touchdowns.

Clemson -16 Troy
Since 2006, Clemson is 5-2 ATS versus IA mid-major teams (not named TCU). Clemson was bad offensively last season, so despite the loss of a senior quarterback, they should actually improve a bit. They won't suddenly become Oregon, but they should be closer to average if not a little above. Defensively, they are consistently one of the top-20 programs in the nation. Troy shouldn't be able to generate more than a pair of touchdowns against the Tigers, so if Clemson can get to 30, they should cover this number.

Oklahoma -26 Tulsa
Oklahoma may well be the best team in the country. Outside of last season, when Utah State and Air Force played the Sooners close, they usually dominate lesser foes at home. Under Bob Stoops, the Sooners are 19-1 versus mid-major IA teams (lost versus TCU in 2005). The average score of those 20 games has been Oklahoma 43, opponent 12.

Houston -3 UCLA
The Cougars have revenge on their mind. Last season, they rolled into Los Angeles as 3 and a half point favorites, but were waylayed 31-13 by the Bruins. Perhaps more importantly, the Cougars have their star quarterback, Case Keenum, back. Keenum tore his ACL against the Bruins and was lost for the year. Without him, a combination of defensive ineptitude, turnovers, and a slight decline on offense led to their first losing season since 2004. With him, they have a chance to win the conference and should dispose of a Pac-12 also-ran with relative ease.

2011 Independents Preview

2011-08-27T13:49:00.000-07:00

It's almost here. Less than one week until kickoff. 5 days and counting. Today is the last of the season previews, focusing on the 4 remaining independents. To see last year's independents preview, follow this link.

Wake Up the Echoes
Is this the year Notre Dame finally returns to elite status in college football? Can they reclaim their place as a perennial national title contender under Brian Kelly? The best I, or anyone else can offer now is some conjecture on the matter. I think Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in college football and stands a great chance at turning the Irish back into an elite program. Of course, that's just an opinion. A better question to ask may be, when was the last time Notre Dame was an elite program? To answer that question, I went back and looked at the SRS rating for Notre Dame since their last national championship in 1988. The SRS rating, or Simple Rating System, is as its name suggests, a simple system for rating college football teams. It takes into account who you beat (schedule strength adjusted) and how bad you beat them (margin of victory is accounted for up to a point). Its probably not the greatest rating system ever designed, but it can give us a quick and dirty idea of how good a team was. Plus, its easily found on a website I frequent anyway, college football reference. Check 'em out sometime. The table below lists the SRS ranking (not rating) of Notre Dame among all college football teams for each season since 1989. I also included the other three current independents (Navy, Army, and BYU) as a frame of reference. Remember, since this is ranking among college football teams, so being lower on the graph is better.In the final 8 seasons of his Irish coaching career (1989-1996), Lou Holtz led Notre Dame to a top-10 SRS ranking 6 times. Since then, they have finished with a top-10 SRS ranking once, in Charlie Weis' first season (2005). Simply put, Notre Dame has not been an elite program for at least a decade and a half.

2011 Sun Belt Preview

2011-08-23T14:54:00.000-07:00

Friends, we have made it to single digits. Just 9 more days and the season is here. Today is the penultimate preview, and the last true 'conference' preview. On Saturday, Statistically Speaking will preview the final four teams, all Independents. To see last year's Sun Belt projections, follow this link.

Hard to Come By
Nothing has come easy for the Sun Belt in its 10 years of existence. No Sun Belt team has ever been ranked in the AP poll, the conference has never finished a season with an aggregate winning record, and Middle Tennessee State in 2009 has been the only team to reach double digit wins. The Sun Belt and its member schools typically serve as cannon fodder for BCS programs looking to add another win in the coffers to attain bowl eligibility. But every once in a while, the little guy strikes back. Sun Belt teams have beaten opponents from BCS conferences 12 times. The following table lists those wins in (somewhat) chronological order.One of the more interesting tidbits from those 12 wins is that Middle Tennessee State owns 5 of them. In addition, those 5 wins have come against a pair of common opponents. In the early part of the decade, Middle Tennessee beat Vanderbilt 3 straight times over 5 seasons. The last loss was especially crushing for Vanderbilt, as it cost them a bowl bid (finished 5-6). More recently, Middle Tennessee has beaten Maryland twice in the past 3 seasons. The only other Sun Belt team with multiple wins versus BCS conference opponents is Troy. The Trojans ambushed a pair of Big 12 teams in 2004 (Missouri) and 2007 (Oklahoma State) at home. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Trojans have not been able to convince a BCS conference team to come to their place since beating the Cowboys.

2011 MAC Preview

2011-08-19T03:30:00.000-07:00

Only 13 more days and 3 more previews to go before the season begins. Today we turn our attention to the Big 10's little brother, the Mid-American Conference. To see how the projections fared last season, follow this link.

Easy Come, Easy Go
One of the biggest reasons for Toledo's improvement 3-5 in the MAC in 2009 to 7-1 in 2010 was their almost magnetic like attraction to the football when their opponents had it. Toledo forced an amazing 27 turnovers in their 8 league games (after forcing only 10 in 2009). This combined with the relative dearth of their own turnovers (9 in league play) gave them an impressive turnover margin of +18. The Rockets were in the black in turnover margin in each of their 7 wins and were in the red in their lone loss. How likely is Toledo to recreate their ball hawking ways in 2011? To answer that question, I looked at which MAC teams did the best job of forcing turnovers since 2006, and then how they performed in the following season. It should come as no surprise that Toledo's 27 forced turnovers was easily tops over the past 5 seasons.If history is any indication (and it usually is), Toledo is in for at least a marginal decline in the number of turnovers they force in 2011. Each of the other high-turnover producing teams forced at least 3 fewer turnovers the next season, and a pair (Kent State and Western Michigan) saw their number drop significantly. Toledo is getting a lot of love as the preseason favorite in the MAC West, and while they should be contenders, sans an unbelievable turnover margin, they are not division's best team.

2011 WAC Preview

2011-08-15T15:00:00.000-07:00

Just a shade over 2 weeks remain for the start of football season. Here at Statistically Speaking, we are winding down our conference previews. Just 3 more to go after today. To check out last season's WAC projections, follow this link.

The WAC Going Forward: Who Takes Charge?
In the last preview, I analyzed the Mountain West and where it had been in the previous 12 seasons. This week, I'm analyzing the WAC and where it could be headed from here on out. Boise State, the WAC's strongest program, is now in the Mountain West, and the 3 remaining powers, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada, will be joining them next season. That leaves the WAC with holdovers Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State. The WAC will also add Texas-San Antonio and Texas State in 2012, but those programs will be making the transition to IA. In fact, Texas San-Antonio has not even played their first game yet! While both schools are coached by men with a modicum of success in their previous stops (Texas-San Antonio is coached by Larry Coker and Texas State is coached by Dennis Franchione), they will likely struggle in their first few years of IA football. So who among the remaining 5 will assume the role of favorite? Here's how the 5 remaining teams have performed against each other for the past 3 seasons.Louisiana Tech has been the strongest amongst the remaining 5 teams, losing just twice in the past 3 seasons. Perhaps more impressively, both those defeats came by a combined 3 points, while 7 of their 10 wins have come by double digits.

So it appears Louisiana Tech is the team to beat going forward, but let's dig a little deeper. I went back and calculated SDPI ratings for those 5 teams over the past 3 seasons, but only in games involving each other. Conference games against Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada get ignored. Instead of the usual tables, we'll use charts this time to track each team's progression. We'll begin with offensive SDPI for the past 3 seasons.Again Louisiana Tech has been stands out from the other 4. Their offense has played consistently well over the past 3 seasons. Some other interesting tidbits: Idaho enjoyed a sizable offensive jump in 2009 (when they not coincidentally played in a bowl game). Utah State cratered in 2010, going from a very good offense, to the worst among the 5. San Jose State has steadily improved on offense since their awful performance in 2008.

Now let's look at the defenses.Louisiana Tech has been consistently strong on defense as well, but check out Utah State. one has to wonder how good they could have been in 2010 if their offense didn't struggle. Idaho has started a slow climb out of a deep defensive hole, while San Jose State has gone the other way (good thing they have all their starters back in 2011). New Mexico State struggled when they changed coaches in 2009, but in their second year under DeWayne Walker, they improved a great deal.

So we've looked at offense and defense, not let's examine total SDPI.Louisiana Tech has been the only one of the remaining WAC teams to be above-average in each season since 2008. Idaho began their journey off the board, improved and then maintained. New Mexico State imploded, and then rebounded. Utah State played well in 2008 and 2009, but struggled in 2010. Finally, San Jose State has maintained a relatively consistent below average performance.

So, now let's try and answer the question: Who takes charge? It's obvious Louisiana Tech is in the best position to lead the WAC going forward. They have the best record and best track record of recent performance. However, as the charts show, no other team has been consistently strong. There is ample space for a second banana, and it could come from any of the other 4 teams, or perhaps from one of the newbies.

2011 Mountain West Preview

2011-08-11T03:48:00.000-07:00

Just 3 short weeks. That is all that separates us from kickoff. Now if we can just get past the dog days of August, everything will be fine. In this edition of our conference previews, we come to the Mountain West, the strongest of the mid-major leagues. To see how the forecast went last year, follow this link.

The Mountain West: A League in Flux
From the beginning, the Mountain West was basically a stronger version of the WAC, or if you prefer, the WAC on steroids. Its 8 original members, Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, and Wyoming had all been members of the WAC. Some had been in the WAC since the beginning (BYU, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming were founding members in 1962), while others were of the Johnny Come Lately variety (UNLV joined in 1996 when the WAC ballooned to 16 teams). So its no surprise that the Mountain West has again poached the WAC's best, with Boise State joining the conference in time for the 2011 season, replacing outgoing BYU and Utah. The Mountain West will have even more former WAC teams in 2012 when Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada join up. The Mountain West has made itself the preeminent mid-major league, but looking back on its brief history, its clear there have been two distinct periods in Mountain West history.

The Mountain West has been around for 12 seasons. From 1999-2004, they were an 8-team league. Prior to the 2005 football season, TCU joined, giving the conference 9 teams. Not that the conference intended it this way, but the Mountain West played 6 seasons with 8 members and 6 seasons with 9 members. Comparing each team's cumulative league record among both periods yields some interesting results. Results I'm sure many college football fans had forgotten.In the period from 1999-2004, the team with the best record in the Mountain West was Colorado State, a team that is just 2-14 over the past 2 seasons in league play. The Rams were still peaking under legendary coach Sonny Lubick when the Mountain West was formed in 1999. They won or shared 3 of the first 4 league titles and posted just a single losing conference record in the first 6 years of the Mountain West's existence. Utah, buoyed by a combined 13-1 league mark in 2003 and 2004, that coincidentally made household names out of Alex Smith and Urban Meyer, was a close second. New Mexico, which reeled off 3 consecutive 5-2 league marks from 2002-2004 was also a league power. Air Force floundered around the middle of the pack and Wyoming brought up the rear. So, what happened when the league expanded to Fort Worth?The New Kid in Town, TCU, promptly ran roughshod over the conference, losing just 7 league games in 6 season. And what of former league overlord Colorado State? The Rams fell on hard times, winning 5 league games in 2005, but failing to finish with more league wins than losses since. BYU finished a close second to TCU, winning a pair of conference titles, but failing to go unbeaten overall and missing out on the bounty that BCS bowl appearances brought Utah (2008) and TCU (2009 and 2010). Another former contender, New Mexico, also fell on hard times, winning just 4 times in their last 24 league games.

The Mountain West will go through a one-year transition period in 2011 with a pair of mid-major national powers (Boise State and TCU) on board. However, in 2012, TCU will leave for the greener pastures of the Big East and the league will add the aforementioned trifecta of WAC schools to replace the Horned Frogs. When 2012 gets here, a new era will dawn for the Mountain West. The 3 teams that led them to mid-major notoriety (BYU, TCU, and Utah) will be gone, 2 of them to conferences with automatic BCS bowl tie-ins and another to conference independence. What will the next 6 years of Mountain West football bring? One can't be sure, but with 3 overlords departing and only one ascending to take their place, there will be ample opportunity for a team like Air Force, or Nevada, or San Diego State to become part of the ruling class in the Mountain West.

2011 Conference USA Preview

2011-08-07T09:41:00.000-07:00

We have finished out sojourn through the BCS leagues and now we move to the mid-majors. First up is Conference USA. To see how last year's projections performed, follow this link.

Conference USA and the BCS
Say what you will about the BCS and its exclusionary practices, but one of the five major bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, Sugar, and the BCS National Championship) has had at least one of their participants be from a non-BCS or mid-major conference each of the past 5 seasons and 6 out of the last 7. However, those participants have all either come from the WAC (Boise or Hawaii) or the Mountain West (TCU or Utah). Despite being as strong and occasionally stronger than the WAC or the Mountain West (top to bottom), Conference USA has yet to have a program rise above the madding crowd and contend for a BCS bowl bid. Since the BCS was formed prior to the 1998 season, only a single Conference USA team has made it through the entirety of the regular season unscathed.Meanwhile, the WAC and Mountain West have produced a combined 9 unbeaten regular seasons in that span. The WAC has produced an unbeaten team in 5 of the past 7 seasons and the Mountain West has produced 3 consecutive champions with an unblemished regular season record. Conference USA's only unbeaten campaign was produced way back in 1998, by a team with just one bowl appearance since then. Since their meteoric rise in 1998, a season that made household names and millionaires out of Tommy Bowden and Rich Rodriguez, the Green Wave of Tulane have gone a collective 49-92.

Outside of producing undefeated seasons, Conference USA has also had a much more difficult time producing teams that register on the national radar. Compare the dearth of Top-25 teams from Conference USA with that produced by the WAC and Mountain West.When UCF and Tulsa finished the 2010 season in the nether regions of the Top-25, it marked the first time a Conference USA team had finished the season ranked since Louisville (now in the Big East) in 2004!. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the most recent time a current Conference USA team finished the season ranked (as a Conference USA team). They have also not had much luck producing top-10 teams.The WAC has produced Top-10 teams the past 2 seasons, while the Mountain West had done it for 3 consecutive years. The only teams to finish in the Top-10 for Conference USA were Louisville (2004) and Tulane (1998).

So that begs the question, is there a team in Conference USA that could potentially topple this decade's worth of mediocrity. There is one. Houston. Now, I certainly am not saying Houston will go undefeated, but the Cougars certainly have a shot, likely the best shot in Conference USA. For starters, they should field the most explosive offense in the conference with the return of quarterback Case Keenum, who missed most of last season with a torn ACL. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly is the schedule. So you don't have to look it up, here it is. The Cougars 4 non-conference games are all imminently winnable. They get to host a decent, but hardly imposing team from a BCS conference (UCLA) in the season opener. They follow that up with trips to face a Sun Belt (North Texas) and WAC (Louisiana Tech) foe. While the Mean Green and Bulldogs will likely be improved this season, Houston should be favored in both. They return home to close non-league action with a bodybag game against IAA Georgia State. Once league play begins, notice the Cougars do not have to face either of the projected top duo from the East (Southern Miss and UCF). The Cougars will likely be favored in 3 of their 4 road conference games (UTEP, UAB, and Tulane). Not that being favored did them any good the last time they traveled to El Paso. With some good fortune, the Cougars could potentially be unbeaten heading into their regular season finale with division rival Tulsa!

And what of Tulsa, and SMU, and Southern Miss, and UCF? Why can't they harbor dreams of an undefeated season? Unfortunately, the non-conference slate will have Tulsa out of contention for an unbeaten season early as they travel to Oklahoma on opening weekend and then visit Boise State 3 weeks later. Similarly, SMU tangles with both Texas A&M and TCU on the road in September. Southern Miss has things a little easier with trips to Virginia and Navy ranking as their toughest non-conference tests. However, the Golden Eagles have not lost fewer than 4 games in a season since 2003. UCF hosts Boston College in non-league action with a chance for a somewhat marquee home scalp, but they must also travel cross-country to BYU and face Southern Miss on the road once conference play starts,

2011 SEC Preview

2011-08-03T03:38:00.000-07:00

With just a little over 4 weeks to go before kickoff (29 days) we come to the last of our BCS conference previews. The SEC has produced the last 5 BCS national champions and looks poised to at least send a team to New Orleans for another shot at the crown. To see last year's picks, follow this link.

Marcus Lattimore Fever: Catch It
As a Columbia resident, I know first hand the love South Carolina fans feel for Marcus Lattimore. As a freshman, Lattimore was an integral piece of a South Carolina team that won its first ever SEC East title in 2010. In the process of that run, Lattimore became the 12th freshman running back from a BCS conference to top 1000 yards on the ground since 2007. That's pretty good, but hardly elite company. The following table lists all 12 running backs, as well as their rush attempts, rush yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. Their ranking in rushing yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns is also included in parentheses.Lattimore's ranking among the 12 seems to make him more Simon the Zealot than Simon Peter. Aside from his high touchdown total, he ranked below the median average in rushing yards and is dead last in yards per rush. Of course, some will attribute this to playing in the SEC!. To those folks, I would point out that Michael Dyer (3rd in yards per attempt) and Knowshon Moreno (7th in yards per attempt) also competed in the rough and tumble SEC. So it looks like Lattimore may be a tad overrated. But just to be safe lets look at one more measurable area of a running back's performance. The following table lists those same 12 running backs, only this time with their total receptions, receiving yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns (with their rank among the 12 in parentheses).Here is where Lattimore equals the hype. His receiving numbers blow away nearly every other running back. LeSean McCoy had more receptions for Pitt, but Lattimore had nearly double his total yardage! Only two other backs averaged more than 10 yards per catch, the aforementioned Moreno and Ryan Williams from Virginia Tech. Williams was also the only back to score multiple touchdowns through the air. While Lattimore is a fine player carrying the football, he is a real game changer snagging passes out of the backfield.

2011 Pac-12 Preview

2011-07-29T03:36:00.000-07:00

We are now under 5 weeks until the season gets underway. 34 days from today, if you want specifics. This week, Statistically Speaking previews the new Pac-12. In a bit of irony, 5 conferences are changing league membership this season, but the Pac-12 (formerly Pac-10) is is the only one to undergo a name change to match. For last season's Pac-10 projections, follow this link.

Fair and Unbalanced
The Cal Bears were one of the more unbalanced teams in the nation in 2010. The Bears ended the season with the worst offense in the Pac-10 and the best defense. The difference between their offensive SDPI (-1.37) and their defensive SDPI (1.46) was quite high, at 2.83 standard deviations. On its own, this number seems very large, but as a standard of comparison, I looked at all of my current SDPI ratings for the six seasons from 2005-2010 to see where it would place overall. It still placed quite high, at 13th overall. The table below lists Cal and the 12 teams in that aforementioned span that had larger differences between their offensive and defensive SDPI ratings. The table also lists their offensive, defensive, and total SDPI, as well as their ranking in those categories in their respective conferences that season. To see how these teams typically performed, their conference and overall record are included as well.While Cal had the misfortune of suffering a losing season, some of these unbalanced teams were actually quite successful. The most unbalanced team on this list, Houston in 2009, won their division and BCS heavyweights Auburn (2007) and Oklahoma (2006) played in big bowls (Chick-Fil-A for Auburn and the Fiesta for Oklahoma). However, as one might expect, on the whole these teams were about average in terms of their final record. Their cumulative league record is 50-54 and their cumulative overall record in 80-82. For the most part, being very good on one side of the ball and very bad on the other, usually portends overall mediocrity.

2011 Big 12 Preview

2011-07-24T10:25:00.000-07:00

Last time we previewed the Big 10, which now has 12 teams, and this week we take a look at what the coming season may have in store for the Big 12, which now has 10 teams. Give the Big 12 credit, they will crown a true champion in 2011, as their conference schedule now consists of 9 games, meaning it is a true round-robin format. Enjoy the Big 12 while you can because we'll probably be seeing another seismic realignment shift in the college football landscape very soon. To check out last year's Big 12 projections, follow this link.

Mr. Griffin Goes to Waco
For anyone who follows college football closely, what I am about to type is as obvious as Jim Tressel's culpability: Robert Griffin means a whole lot to Baylor. For those who may not know, Robert Griffin is the fleet-footed Baylor quarterback, who last season helped lead the Bears to their first bowl game since 1994, and first ever season of at least a .500 record in Big 12 play. While Griffin did play for the Bears in 2009, he was injured in the season's third game and did not take a snap during conference play. Without him, the Bears endured through a typical Baylor season, finishing 1-7 versus the conference, with just one loss coming by fewer than single digits. The Bears relative emergence in the Big 12 in 2010 was entirely a result of their offensive improvement under Griffin. The defense ranked 11th in SDPI in the Big 12 in 2009 and a marginally better 10th in 2010. However, the offense improved from 10th in the Big 12 in SDPI in 2009 to 2nd in 2010 with Griffin at the controls. Instead of merely focusing on SDPI, I wanted to look at how much more often Baylor scored in 2010. While yards (the measure of SDPI) are a key contributing factor to points, scoring touchdowns is focus of every offense. With that in mind, take a look at the following table which lists offensive touchdowns for Big 12 teams in conference play in 2009 and 2010.
Baylor ranked dead last in the Big 12 in 2009, scoring just 11 offensive touchdowns in 8 conference games. In 2010, they improved their offensive output by an amazing 23 touchdowns (nearly 3 additional offensive touchdowns per game). One man made the difference between the basement and mediocrity.

2011 Big 10 Preview

2011-07-19T11:28:00.000-07:00

We are just a shade over 6 weeks until kickoff of the 2011 college football season. Our next stop on the preseason preview train is the midwest, and the Big 10, a conference that will host its first ever championship game this December. Before you read this year's preview, check out last year's Big 10 preview.

Koenning and Guile
Casual college football fans likely don't know who Vic Koenning is, and why should they? Koenning was a failure in his brief stint as a head man, winning just 5 games in 3 seasons at Wyoming. However, since returning to coordinator duties, Koenning has consistently elicited fine showings from his defenses. 2010 was no exception as Illinois posted the third best defense in the Big 10. The table below lists the defensive SDPI of each of the last 6 defenses Koenning has coached, as well as their defensive rank in the their respective conferences.Koenning took over as defensive coordinator at Clemson in 2005 and within one season had the Tigers at or near the top of the defensive pecking order. He joined Bill Snyder's staff at Kansas State in 2009, and while the defense was below average, the Wildcats still improved dramatically as they were dead last in the Big 12 in defense in 2008 (-1.82 defensive SDPI). He then joined the Illini staff in 2010 and coaxed a fine showing from a defense that had finished 9th in the 11 team Big 10 the previous year (-0.75 defensive SDPI).

So it's clear Koenning has a track record of producing solid to outstanding defensive performances, but how much did he improve the fortunes of Kansas State and Illinois in 2009 and 2010 respectively? Since their defenses were so bad in 2008 and 2009, it's likely they would have improved regardless of who was coaching up the defense. To answer this question, I first looked at all BCS conference defenses between 2005 and 2009 that produced a defensive SDPI of between -1.50 and -2.00 (that is one and a half to two standard deviations below average). These defenses were comparable to Kansas State in 2008. 17 BCS conference defenses (not including Kansas State in 2008) in that 5-year period met those criteria. Of those 17 teams, 15 improved the next season. The average improvement was nearly an entire standard deviation (+0.95). The table below summarizes the results and compares them to Kansas State's improvement from 2008 to 2009.The average defense that posted numbers as bad as those of Kansas State improved by about one standard deviation the following season. Kansas State improved by 1.45 standard deviations. Only four other defenses with comparable SDPIs saw better improvement. For the curious, they were in order of improvement, Nebraska 2007-2008, Cincinnati 2005-2006, Florida State 2009-2010, and Texas A&M 2009-2010.

Alright, so Koenning likely helped improve Kansas State by a more significant margin than we would have expected of an 'average' defensive coordinator. What about Illinois? The Illini posted a defensive SDPI of -0.75 in 2009, so the situation was not nearly as dire as the one Koenning inherited in Manhattan. To compare how similar defenses fared the following season, I looked at all BCS conference defenses between 2005 and 2009 that produced a defensive SDPI of between -0.50 and -1.00. 45 BCS conference defenses (not including Illinois in 2009) in that 5-year period met those criteria. Of those 45 teams, 31 improved the next season. The average improvement was a little more than a third of a standard deviation (+0.37). The table below summarizes the results and compares them to Illinois' improvement from 2009 to 2010.Once again, Koenning and his defense beat the average, this time by an even healthier margin. Illinois improved by nearly a whole standard deviation more than the average of the 45 comparable teams. Only eight other defenses with comparable SDPIs saw better improvement, with Wisconsin from 2005-2006 leading the way.

I guess what I was trying to get at here in this piece is that Vic Koenning is one of the better defensive coordinators in the game today. I fully expect Illinois to remain in the upper-echelon of Big 10 defenses in 2011 and beyond (should he remain in Champaign). While he may not have the necessary skills to be a head coach, he appears to be someone who is quite capable of coaching up a defense.

2011 Big East Preview

2011-07-14T13:26:00.000-07:00

We have crossed the 50 day threshold. Exactly seven weeks, or 49 days, is all that separates us from for real football. Today, Statistically Speaking tells you how the Big East will shake out in 2011. To decide how much you want to trust these projections, here's the link to last year's Big East preview.

Skip Holtz and the Art of Winning Ugly
In his relatively brief head coaching career, Skip Holtz has been pretty successful. He boasts a career record 46-32, had had just a single losing season (his first at East Carolina in 2005), and has won a pair of conference titles. However, Skippy, like his father, has certainly not been flashy in his winning ways. His East Carolina teams also posed significant problems to my projection system as they frequently finished with sterling won/loss records in Conference USA despite mediocre SDPI numbers. The table below illustrates those discrepancies.As you can see, with the exception of his final year at East Carolina, when his Pirates rated out as the second best team in the league, his teams have usually ranked around the middle in terms of performance. However, Skip always seems to get the best out of his teams. One was he has done this is by posting a phenomenal record in close games. Since 2006, teams coached by Skip Holtz have gone 13-7 in one-score conference games and 22-11 in one-score games overall. How have his teams been able to post this strong record in close games? One reason may of course be randomness and small sample size, but there is one statistical category where his teams have consistently performed well--blocking kicks.His teams have blocked 18 kicks over the past five seasons. Perhaps more importantly, those blocked kicks have aided the cause greatly in close games. 11 of the 18 blocks have occurred in 9 one-score games since 2006. His teams' record in those 9 games? 8-1. Drop those 9 games from the ledger and his teams have gone a more 'normal' 14-10 in one-score games since 2006. The system did not project South Florida to win the Big East this season, but it wouldn't shock me if the Bulls steal a BCS bid despite an underwhelming statistical profile.

2011 ACC Preview

2011-07-09T08:41:00.000-07:00

Its been nearly 6 months since Auburn and Oregon squared off in the BCS National Championship Game, and I don't know about you, but I sure could use some amateur football. While we still have a ways to go (54 days to be exact), it is time to resume an annual tradition here at Statistically Speaking, the conference previews. We'll begin today with the ACC, and go alphabetically through the 6 BCS conferences before moving on to the Independents and the Mid-Majors. These projections come from my very own projection system, so feel free to disagree with them. If you want to see how wrong I was last year, here's the link to the 2010 ACC Projections. In addition to the projections, there is a small post regarding some statistical fact I found interesting about the ACC last year. All other league projections will feature a similar format. Check back in a few days for the Big East preview. And without further adieu, here's how the ACC will shake out in 2011.

No Offense, None Taken
If you watched a lot of ACC football, or paid attention to the SDPI post way back in January, you know that Clemson and Boston College were among the most poorly balanced teams in the nation last season; at least in terms of offense and defense. Both teams boasted stellar offenses, with Clemson leading the ACC in defense and Boston College finishing second. However, both teams were at the opposite end of the spectrum when it came to moving the ball themselves. Clemson ranked tenth (out of twelve teams) in offense, and Boston College ranked eleventh. Thus, we can intuitively surmise that games involving Boston College and Clemson provided very few touchdowns. And we would be correct in our assumption. The table below lists the offensive touchdowns (touchdowns not scored by the defense or special teams) both scored and allowed by ACC teams in conference play in 2010.As you can see, Clemson and Boston College had by far the fewest touchdowns scored in their respective games. As a point of reference, the average ACC team saw 44 total touchdowns scored in their eight league games, for an average of 5.5 total touchdowns per game. Virginia games saw the most frequent scores, with the Cavs and their opponents combining to score nearly seven offensive touchdowns per game. Not that the Cavs were very good, as they allowed more than four per game on average, while scoring less than three per game themselves.

So the average ACC teams saw 44 touchdowns scored in their league games with a standard deviation of 8.73863 touchdowns (a little more than one per game). How far away from the average were Clemson and Boston College? Pretty far. Clemson was 1.72 standard deviations below average, while Boston College was 2.06 below average. The following table helps illustrate just how far away from the rest of the league Clemson and Boston College were when it came to scoring (either for or against) in their games.

Home Field Advantage as a Function of Crowd Size

2011-06-26T12:33:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago I finished reading the fantastic book Scorecasting. One of the more interesting chapters in the book deals with home field advantage and what actual advantage(s) it confers to teams. I won't spoil the conclusion, but its not what you think. The authors later look at how crowd size may have accounted for these advantages. Feeling inspired, I decided to take a look at how crowd size affected home field advantage in 2010. I didn't look at any particular telling stat (penalties, yards, touchdowns, etc.), I simply looked at whether or not the home team won, and then what the crowd size for that game was. I then, very unscientifically I might add, divided the crowd attendance into ranges of 10,000 and calculated the winning percentage for each range. The results are summarized in the table below.That looks like an almost perfect relationship. As crowd size increases, the home team is more likely to win (up to a certain point--adding a few thousand more folks north of 100,000 doesn't appear to make the home team more likely to win). However, there are some caveats. First, sample size is an issue for a few ranges. Only 12 games were played involving 10,000 or fewer spectators. These were all games involving either MAC, Sun Belt, or WAC schools. There were also only 57 games played in front of more than 90,000 fans. These games all involved SEC, Big 12, or Big 10 teams playing at home (some of their opponents were mid-majors). This brings up a second issue. Better teams tend to have bigger stadiums. It doesn't make sense for Akron to have an on-campus stadium that seats 96,000 fans. Likewise, it doesn't make sense for Ohio State to have a 30,000 seat stadium when they have more undergraduates than that currently enrolled at the university. If only there were some unbiased way to look at two teams and determine whether or not the home team is more likely to win in the first place. Thankfully, for our purposes, and for degenerates nationwide, there is. Its called the point spread. This next table summarizes the home teams record Against the Spread (ATS). For those who do not know what this means, I present a quick example. Lets say the road team is favored by seven points against the home team. If the home team loses the game by six points, they cover the spread and 'win' for our purposes. If they lose by eight points, they 'lose', and if they lose by exactly seven points its a push, or for our purposes, a 'tie'. Now, here's that table I promised.Based on their record against the spread, home team's performed better as crowd size increased. However, once again this was only up to a certain point, and that point is much lower than the previous threshold for simply winning the game. As the crowd size inched north of 50,000 or so, the added fans provided no real boost to the home team's hopes of covering the spread. Here's another way of looking at the data.Any gambler worth his salt would give his best parlay card for a guaranteed winning percentage of 57%. If you occasionally make plays on college football, keep crowd size in mind when placing your bets. And you can feel free to send any large windfalls my way.

2010 Sun Belt SDPI

2011-06-01T11:16:00.000-07:00

We have come to the end of our season recaps. We conclude by examining the Sun Belt, a mid-major conference that will be celebrating its 10th anniversary in 2011. If you feel like it, send them a gift of tin to their league office in New Orleans, Louisiana. For a primer on whats going on here, check the link to last year's SDPI post on the Sun Belt.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Sun Belt regular season, conference play only, the average Sun Belt team gained and allowed 3060.78 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 374.94 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 138.99 yards. North Texas gained 2961 yards and allowed 3173 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.27 = [(2961-3060.78)/374.94]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.81 = [(3060.78-3173)/138.99]. Their total SDPI was -1.07. This number ranked 8th in the Sun Belt.

Here are the 2010 Sun Belt standings.Now here are the 2010 Sun Belt SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.For the fifth straight season, the Troy Trojans claimed at least a share of the conference title. joining Ohio State as the only other IA team to accomplish that feat since 2006. For the first time in the league's short history, the Sun Belt sent three teams to the postseason, with Troy and Middle Tennessee State making their third and second consecutive trips, while Florida International made their maiden voyage. Elsewhere in the league standings, Western Kentucky broke a 26-game losing streak when they beat Louisiana-Lafayette in late October.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Speaking of the Hilltoppers, in their second season as full-time Sun Belt members, Western Kentucky managed only a pair of league wins, but they were oh so close in several others. The Hilltoppers were just 1-4 in one-score games, falling to Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee State by a combined 14 points. The Hilltoppers were just a few plays away from finishing in the middle of the pack in the conference instead of the basement.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Middle Tennessee State finished all alone in third place in the Sun Belt, behind co-champs Florida International and Troy, but their play was more indicative of a team with a losing record. In their three game winning streak to end the season, the Blue Raiders beat both Western Kentucky and Florida International by a single point to keep their bowl hopes alive.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Troy 1.48
The Trojans needed their offense to be spectacular in order to lay claim to another league title because their defense was among the worst in the conference.

Worst Offense: Florida Atlantic -1.55
Where oh where has Rusty Smith gone? The Owls were held below 300 yards in half their conference games, and for the season averaged just 310 yards per game against Sun Belt foes.

Best Defense: Western Kentucky 1.91
This was perhaps the biggest shocker during all the SDPI analysis I have done. While the Hilltoppers don't appear to be particularly stingy on defense (allowed 349 yards per game in league play), they were never really torched by anyone save Troy (491 yards allowed). In a league with a small defensive range (Florida Atlantic, the worst defense, allowed 52 more yards per game than the Hilltoppers), Western Kentucky did just enough to earn the number one ranking.

Worst Defense: Florida Atlantic -1.09
As mentioned above, all the defenses were very close in the Sun Belt last year. The Owls just happened to have the worst showing.

Troise State
While it may not seem like it based on a cursory knowledge of the Sun Belt, over the last half-decade, the Troy Trojans have dominated their mid-major conference brethren in a similar fashion to Boise State. The Trojans have won at least a share of the Sun Belt title in each of the past five seasons, and in that span are seven games clear of the team with the second best record (Middle Tennessee State). How do the Trojans stack up in their dominance with leaders from the other ten conferences? Glad you asked.Only Ohio State and Boise have been more dominant in relation to the other teams in their respective leagues than Troy. Notice also that Oregon, not Southern Cal has posted the best Pac-10 record over the past five seasons.

2010 MAC SDPI

2011-05-18T14:18:00.000-07:00

We have but two more leagues to review in our jaunt through the college football landscape. We begin the end of our SDPI reviews with a look at the MAC, a league even the NFL envies with its commitment to parity. More on this later. If you want a primer on what's going on here, follow the link to last year's MAC post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 MAC regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average MAC team gained and allowed 2807.23 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 528.97 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 403.62 yards. Kent State gained 2517 yards and allowed 2418 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.55 = [(2517-2807.23)/528.97]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.96 = [(2807.23-2418)/403.62]. Their total SDPI was 0.42. This number ranked 7th in the MAC.

Here are the 2010 MAC standings.Now here are the 2010 MAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 13 teams) in parentheses.The MAC almost had a team finish the year ranked for the second consecutive season. Heading into the MAC Championship Game, Northern Illinois was ranked 24th in the AP Poll. However, their upset loss to Miami dropped them out of the poll. Still, the MAC enjoyed a solid season, with its top two teams (Miami and Northern Illinois) winning bowl games in relatively easy fashion. Northern Illinois' win over Fresno was especially satisfying as the Bulldogs (deservedly or not) are one of the more revered mid-major teams.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Pick your directional Michigan school. Both Central Michigan (won three of the previous four MAC titles) and Western Michigan were much better than their records showed. Central Michigan was undone by turnovers (committed a league-high 25 in MAC play for league-worse margin of -13) and an inability to win close games. Their 1-5 record in one-score games (1-3 in the MAC) relegated them to their first losing season since 2004. Meanwhile, Western Michigan rated out as the third best team in the league statistically. They too struggled in close games (0-2 overall and in the league), but won several blowouts (four of their five league wins came by at least 29 points), suggesting that they were capable of much more than a third place finish in the division.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
The Toledo Rockets enjoyed their first winning season since 2005, but a great deal of their success is likely unsustainable, unless they improve their overall play. Toledo forced a league-high 27 turnovers in MAC play and turned the ball over just nine times for an absurd margin of +18 in eight games (for comparison's sake, they forced 10 and lost 23 in 2009). That number will likely trend the other way in 2011. Make no mistake, the Rockets were in the upper-half of the MAC statistically last year. However, their play was not indicative of a team that lost just a single conference game.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Northern Illinois 2.06
The Huskies never failed to generate at least 420 yards of offense or 28 points in any league game until they were held to 373 and 21 respectively in their MAC Championship Game defeat.

Worst Offense: Buffalo -1.28
New coach. New quarterback. Yuck. After rolling for 441 yards against Bowling Green in their conference opener, the Bulls averaged just 241 yards per game over their last seven. For the season, their leading rusher gained just 298 yards and averaged under 3 yards per carry.

Best Defense: Northern Illinois 1.27
Western Michigan was the only MAC team to top 400 yards against the Huskies, until Miami put 432 on them in the MAC Championship Game.

Worst Defense: Eastern Michigan -1.52
The Eagles somehow held Ball State and Buffalo in check (540 combined yards), but were utterly hopeless against everyone else (allowed 480 yards per game).

The MAC is the NFL of College Football
I know what you're thinking: How can the MAC, one of, if not the weakest of the IA conferences possibly be compared to the best of the best in the National Football league? The answer is simple - parity. The NFL prides itself on the notion that even woebegone teams and franchises are just a year or two away from contention. The MAC may not tout its parity like the NFL, but rest assured it does exist. Before we delve into the hard numbers, consider these few facts. Over the past three seasons, Buffalo has won the MAC, and finished 1-7 in the conference just two years later. Ball State and Central Michigan have both finished unbeaten in MAC play, then 2-6 the very next year. Bowling Green has finished with six league wins one season and then two the next. Miami went from the basement of the East division (1-7) to the top of the East (7-1) in just one season. I could go on, but suffice it to say parity is alive and well in the MAC. How much parity is there in the MAC and how does this parity compare to the other ten IA conferences? To answer that question I did a simple regression analysis to determine how well a team's conference wins in one season predict their conference wins in the following season. I looked at three years worth of data (2008-2010). That is, how well did a team's 2008 conference record predict their 2009 conference record and how well did their 2009 conference record predict their 2010 conference record. The R squared values for each conference are included in the chart below.The R squared value tells us how much of the variation in the dependent variable (conference record) is explained by the independent variable (last year's conference record). As you can see, the MAC has been by far the least predictable conference, at least when using last year's standings as a baseline. Barely more than 3% of the variation in conference record can be explained by last season's conference record. On the other end of the spectrum, the Pac-10, WAC, and Mountain West have been much more consistent in terms of their final standings. So what does this mean for 2011? Bet the house on Eastern Michigan winning the MAC.

2010 Mountain West SDPI

2011-05-11T15:36:00.000-07:00

Last week we looked at the WAC, one of the mid-major leagues that will be undergoing significant changes over the next two seasons. Now we will take a look at the Mountain West, another conference experiencing a makeover this season and in 2012. For some background on whats going on, here's the link to last year's Mountain West post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Mountain West regular season, conference play only, the average Mountain West team gained and allowed 2946.44 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 617.70 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 667.42 yards. Air Force gained 3399 yards and allowed 2906 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.73 = [(3399-2946.44)/617.70]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.06 = [(2946.44-2906)/667.42]. Their total SDPI was 0.79. This number ranked 3rd in the Mountain West.

Here are the 2010 Mountain West standings.Now here are the 2010 Mountain West SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.In late October the Mountain West actually had two teams ranked in the top-10 of the AP poll. The Utah Utes lost two games down the stretch, then lost to Boise State in their bowl game to fall out of the top-25 altogether. Still, the Mountain West enjoyed a solid season, with a 4-1 bowl record, including two bowl wins over BCS conference teams (Wisconsin and Georgia Tech), had their league champion finish ranked number two in the country for the second time in three seasons, and saw one of their coaches leave for one of the premiere jobs in the nation (Michigan). With Boise State joining the fold in 2011 followed by Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada in 2012, the Mountain West is poised to remain one of the preeminent mid-major leagues despite the losses of BYU, Utah, and TCU.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
BYU began the season 1-4, with non-competitive losses to Air Force, Florida State, Nevada, and Utah State. After upsetting San Diego State, TCU blew the Cougars out in Fort Worth. BYU proceeded to win four of their final five regular season games, with the lone loss coming by a single point at arch-rival Utah. Statistically, BYU was the second best team in the Mountain West, but thanks to that close call against Utah (lost when their game-winning field goal attempt was blocked), they had to settle for a tie for third in the Mountain West standings.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
In their final season of play in the Mountain West, Utah looked like they may leave for the Pac-10 with a conference title in tow. However, despite their sterling 7-1 league mark, Utah was actually several notches below league champ TCU, and very fortunate to finish with just one league loss. Within the conference, Utah was 3-0 in one-score games, beating the other bowl-eligible teams (Air Force, BYU, and San Diego State) by a combined 10 points. The Utes did not acquit themselves well in their high-profile contests, scoring just 13 points in games against TCU, Notre Dame, and Boise State (lost by a combined 88 points).

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: TCU 1.79
The Horned Frogs gained at least 500 yards in five of their eight league games, and were held below 400 yards just once (against BYU).

Worst Offense: New Mexico -1.30
Year Two of the Mike Locksley era was not much of an improvement over Year 1. The Lobos topped 400 yards just once during Mountain West play, in their lone win versus Wyoming. At least Mr Locksley didn't punch any assistants or have busy hands with his secretary.

Best Defense: TCU 2.08
The Horned Frogs amazingly held six of their eight league opponents to fewer than 200 yards of total offense.

Worst Defense: New Mexico -1.29
The Lobos pulled double duty at the bottom of the Mountain West. Their defense held only one league foe (San Diego State) below 400 yards.

The Mightiest of the Mids
There's a reason Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada did not hesitate to say 'Yes' when the Mountain West offered them membership. While they may not all be able to use the Mountain West as a stepping stone like Utah and TCU, and gain entry into one of the BCS conferences, the league does provide a stiffer challenge and better prestige than the WAC. The Mountain West has been by far the preeminent non-BCS (mid-major conference) over the last half-decade. Don't believe me? I have graphs! This first graph simply lists the number of victories each mid-major conference (Mountain West, WAC, CUSA, MAC, and Sun Belt) have over BCS conference foes (and Notre Dame) since 2006.
With the exception of 2006, the Mountain West has boasted more victories over BCS conference foes than any other mid-major conference. Over the past five seasons, Mountain West teams have won 37 games against BCS conference opponents. The WAC is second in that span with 23 such victories. And don't think that the wins have been limited to the Big 3 (BYU, TCU, and Utah). Middling teams like Wyoming (wins over Tennessee and Virginia), UNLV (Arizona State and Iowa State), and New Mexico (Arizona twice) have also contributed some scalps.

The Mountain West has also been the mid-major conference with the most teams ranked in the final AP poll.The Mountain West has had 10 teams finish the season ranked in the top 25 since 2006 (an average of two per season). The WAC is next with six. In this case, your initial hunch is correct. the Big 3 have accounted for each top-25 appearance. Alas, the Sun Belt has yet to have a team finish the season ranked in the top 25.

2010 WAC SDPI

2011-05-05T13:57:00.000-07:00

This week, our conference recap takes us to the WAC, a league that may soon cease to exist in football. Boise State will be joining the more prestigious Mountain West in 2011, with Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada following suit in 2012. Oh well, for at least one more season, the WAC is alive and well. For a primer on what this series is about, here's the link to last year's WAC post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 WAC regular season, conference play only, the average WAC team gained and allowed 3288.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 725.55 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 636.94 yards. Fresno State gained 2917 yards and allowed 2839 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.51 = [(2917-3288.67)/725.55]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.71 = [(3288.67-2839)/636.94]. Their total SDPI was 0.19. This number ranked 4th in the WAC.

Here are the 2010 WAC standings.Now here are the 2010 WAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.The actual standings and SDPI ratings agree there was a triumvirate at the top of the WAC in 2010. Boise continued their dominance in their swan song, but Hawaii and Nevada also rose up and enjoyed solid seasons. The WAC nearly placed two teams in the top-10 of the final AP poll for the first time in its history with Boise finishing the season ranked 9th and Nevada 11th. When the Wolfpack upset the Broncos in exciting fashion on November 26th, it marked the end of Boise's 22-game WAC winning streak and 35-game regular season winning streak. On the other end of the spectrum, San Jose State failed to win a league game, and dating back to their slide to end the 2008 season, the Spartans are now 1-18 in their last 19 conference games.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
The WAC standings line up nearly identically with the SDPI ratings. However, Boise is probably the team that is most underrated by their standing in the conference. While the Broncos tied for the league title, they thoroughly dominated their league opponents, with the exception of a second-half meltdown in Reno. The Broncos won each of their other league games by at least 29 points, and eviscerated fellow co-champ Hawaii by 35 points. For comparison's sake, the Broncos posted a combined SDPI of 2.44 in 2009. The second rated team, Nevada, posted a combined of SDPI of 2.13 for an advantage of 0.31 standard deviations. If you don't want to go back and look at the table, Boise posted a combined SDPI of 3.11 last year. Hawaii was second at 1.94, 1.17 standard deviations below Boise. Misfortune in the kicking game was the only thing keeping this team from a third consecutive perfect conference mark.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Once again, we're splitting hairs here as the WAC teams that were good in 2010 posted good records and vice-versa. However, Idaho managed to win three league games despite not being appreciably better than the three teams that finished below them in the standings. Idaho followed up their surprising 8-5 2009 season with a somewhat disappointing 6-7 mark. However, outside of 2009, the six wins represent their most in a season since 1999 when they went 7-4. The Vandals were not particularly lucky in 2010, they just weren't a great deal better than Utah State, New Mexico State, or San Jose State, which combined won as many games in conference as Idaho.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Nevada 1.44
The Pistol was a 357 in 2010. The Wolfpack continued their dominance (finished first in the category in 2009) with Colin Kaepernick under center (or just behind center as it were) in his senior season. Outside of their struggle on the islands (season-low 293 yards), the Wolfpack averaged 577 yards in their other seven conference games.

Worst Offense: New Mexico State -1.15
The Aggies topped 400 yards of offense just once on the year, in their lone league win versus San Jose State. They were held below 215 yards three times in league play.

Best Defense: Boise State 1.81
Nevada showed they were mortal when they racked up 528 yards in their upset win. However, in their other seven league games, the Broncos were nearly impenetrable, allowing just 230 yards per game.

Worst Defense: San Jose State -1.14
What's an easy way to go winless? Allow over 500 yards per game to your conference brethren. The Spartans were at their worst against Nevada and Hawaii, allowing them to gouge them for over 1200 yards in the two games.

Sacks in the WAC
Even casual fans by now know about Boise State. The Broncos, along with schools like TCU and Utah, have been the poster child for mid-major football the past few seasons. The Broncos routinely dominate their opponents in the WAC and also hold their own against the big boys from the BCS leagues. To satisfy my own curiosity, I wanted to find out how dominant Boise State was in regards to protecting their own quarterback and pressuring the opposing quarterback in the confines of WAC play. To answer that question, I wanted to look at more than just total sacks and sacks allowed (though Boise did lead the WAC in both categories with 30 sacks and just 6 sacks allowed). Instead I looked at sack rate. Sack rate is simply the number of sacks divided by the number of pass attempts plus sacks. This number tells us how many times out of 100 pass attempts a team sacked the opposing quarterback or was sacked by the opposing team. The table below lists the sacks rates (higher is better) for WAC teams in 2010 (conference play only). The average sack rate was 6.14%. Boise State sacked opposing WAC quarterbacks at a rate of more than once every ten pass attempts, while Utah State registered a sack roughly every 40 pass attempts. Just eyeballing sack rates, the ability to sack opposing quarterbacks seems to align itself pretty evenly with overall defensive ability. Most teams were ranked in sack rate very close to where they were ranked in defensive SDPI. The big exception is of course San Jose State, which finished dead last in the conference in defense, but was actually about average in sack rate. Unfortunately for the Spartans, when they didn't sack the opposing quarterback, their secondary broke down. WAC opponents averaged more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Now let's look at how often a team's quarterback was sacked by the opposition (lower is better). Once again Boise State is by far the cream of the crop. Opponents sacked Boise quarterback Kellen Moore just once every 45 drop backs. On the other end of the spectrum, Fresno State quarterback Ryan Colburn was sacked about once every 11 pass attempts. This helps explain why Fresno finished with a below average SDPI rating (6th in the WAC) despite Colburn's otherwise solid passing stats.

2010 Conference USA SDPI

2011-04-23T12:54:00.000-07:00

We've rolled through all six BCS conferences so now its time to take a look at the little guys. We'll begin our mid-major sojourn with Conference USA, one of two mid-major leagues with a pair of divisions and a conference title game. For a primer, here's the link to last year's Conference USA post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Conference USA regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average Conference USA team gained and allowed 3306.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 565.42 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 328.68 yards. Marshall gained 2441 yards and allowed 2910 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.53 = [(2441-3306.67)/565.42]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.21 = [(3306.67-2910)/328.68]. Their total SDPI was -0.32. This number ranked 8th in Conference USA.

Here are the 2010 Conference USA standings.Now here are the 2010 Conference USA SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.For the first time since the league expanded and split into two divisions in 2005, Conference USA had a team ranked in the final AP poll. In fact they had two (first time ever). With their bowl victories over Georgia and Hawaii respectively, UCF and Tulsa finished 21st and 24th in the last AP poll. Meanwhile, at the Hall of Justice, err, the bottom of the standings, Memphis has now lost 13 consecutive league games since beating UTEP in 2009.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Houston has been a threat to win the western division nearly every season since the league expanded. From 2006-2009, the Cougars finished either first or a game back of first each season. They weathered the loss of the school's all-time leading passer in 2007 when Kevin Kolb departed and one year later a coaching change when Art Briles left for Baylor. However, a confluence of forces in 2010 caused them to miss out on a bowl game for the first time since 2004. Cobb's heir to the quarterbacking throne, senior Case Keenum was lost for the year in the season's third game with an ACL injury. The good news for Cougars fans is that Keenum was awarded an extra year of eligibility so he will be back under center in 2011. Even without Keenum for seven of their eight league games, the Cougars still produced the league's second most prolific offense (behind Tulsa). Houston has now finished first or second in Conference USA in offense for each season that I have been calculating SDPI (since 2005). While Keenum's understudy, freshman David Piland, did gain some valuable experience, he also made a fair share of rookie mistakes. Piland threw nine interceptions in his seven league starts. By comparison, Keenum threw just eight in 16 starts from 2008 to 2009. With those interceptions, Houston had the second worst turnover margin in Conference USA in 2010 (-5). The Cougars also went winless in one-score games in 2010, falling to Rice by three, UCF by seven, and Tulsa by three. With Keenum back in the fold, expect the Cougars to return to their rightful place near the top of the west in 2011.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Ruffin McNeill continued the Skip Holtz magic at East Carolina. Despite posting marginal to below average statistics, the Pirates continue to finish in the upper-half of their division and play in bowl games. While under Holtz, the Pirates won with a stout defense and middling offense, the 2010 Pirates flipped the script. East Carolina had an above-average offense for the first time since 2005 with Boston College transfer Dominique Davis throwing 37 touchdown passes in 2010 (the Pirates threw just 30 touchdown passes as a team in 2008 and 2009 combined). However, the defense went from the second best in all of Conference USA, to the worst. Ruffin McNeill, a defensive coach will have to coax some serious improvement out of that side of the ball, as the Pirates allowed at least 40 points in ten of their 13 games.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Tulsa 1.46
The Golden Hurricane were held below 400 yards just once in conference play. They gained just 364 yards in their loss to SMU that ultimately decided the western division.

Worst Offense: Memphis -1.67
With a new coach and a new quarterback, no one was walking with their feet 10 feet off of Beale. Outside of their first game against East Carolina when they set their high-water conference mark in yards (413) and points (27), the Tigers averaged just 279 yards and 14.4 points per game through the rest of conference play.

Best Defense: UCF 1.66
For the second year in a row, and third time in the past four seasons, UCF owned the best defense in Conference USA. That unit also played pretty well in their clashes with the big boys. UCF held Georgia to six points in their bowl win, held NC State quarterback Russell Wilson to his worst passer rating in any start as a collegian, and held Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas to his second worst per carry average on the year.

Worst Defense: East Carolina -1.45
This is what happens when you lose nine starters and your head coach. The Pirates allowed roughly 112 more yards per game to their league foes in 2010 versus 2009 (473 to 361).

Jeff Godfrey: A Godsend
Heading into the 2010 season, UCF looked to be one of the favorites to win their half of Conference USA and perhaps earn a date with an SEC foe in the Liberty Bowl. The Knights defense had been one of the best units in the league for the previous four seasons and looked to be stacked again with seven returning starters. However, the offense, in particular the quarterback position looked to be an area of weakness. Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges put up solid numbers in his lone year as a starter in 2009, but the only quarterback with any experience heading into 2010 was Rob Calabrese. As a starter in 2008, Calabrese appeared more suited for an offense run by Amos Alonzo Stagg as he completed under 40% of his passes (39.4). Calabrese got the nod in the opener against IAA South Dakota State and actually showed some promise, completing 12 of 15 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown. Against NC State in the team's second game, Calabrese showed that perhaps he should be playing IAA football as he completed just 10 of 18 passes for 106 yards and two interceptions. Down 21 points and in need of a spark, head coach George O'Leary turned to true freshman Jeff Godfrey. Godfrey completed seven of his ten passes, throwing for 107 yards against the Wolfpack. He did not throw any touchdown passes, but he did rush for two scores and 53 yards on the ground. UCF was within seven and in the red zone late in the game when receiver Quincy McDuffie fumbled a Godfrey completion which NC State recovered. The Wolfpack held on for a 28-21 win, but UCF had discovered their quarterback of the future (and present). Behind Godfrey's heroics and another fine defensive showing, the Knights finished 7-1 in league play, beat SMU in the championship game, and upset Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. Godfrey finished the season with the 15th best quarterback rating in the nation (154.31), and he also added over 500 yards on the ground for good measure. He has a ways to go, but Godfrey could end up being the school's most accomplished passer, surpassing even the great Daunte Culpepper.

2010 SEC SDPI

2011-04-15T16:12:00.000-07:00

This week we conclude our sojourn through the big boys of college football with the kings of the college landscape, the SEC. For first time readers, here's a link to last year's post on the SEC.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2997.75 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 516.03 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 373.68 yards. Georgia gained 3064 yards and allowed 2846 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.13 = [(3064-2997.75)/516.03]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.41 = [(2997.75-2846)/373.68]. Their total SDPI was 0.53. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

Here are the 2010 SEC standings.Now here are the 2010 SEC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.For the fifth straight season, the SEC produced the BCS National Champion. However, by perusing either the actual standings or the SDPI rankings, its clear the 2010 SEC was anything but balanced. The SEC West went 15-3 against their eastern division foes. Outside of Ole Miss, the west was an even more dominant 14-1 with the lone win being South Carolina's upset over Alabama. The outcome was similar in the bowl season. The west went 4-1, with the lone loss coming from Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State. Meanwhile, the east went just 1-4 with Florida's win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl representing the only positive postseason outcome.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
No team significantly underperformed their expected record based on their down-to-down stats, but if one must be chosen, how about Kentucky. For years, the Wildcats have posted bad SDPI numbers, yet still managed to win about three conference games and play in a nondescript bowl. This year, the Wildcats actually posted mediocre numbers (especially on offense where they finished 3rd in the conference), yet thanks to a poor record in one-score games (1-3) and the worst turnover margin in the conference (-6 in SEC games), Kentucky won just a pair of league games.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Once again, there's not a great deal to quibble with here. However, the team with the biggest disparity between their SDPI rating and their finish in the league standings belongs to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were very bad on offense (ahead of only Vandy) and a little above average on defense. However, they managed to eke out three one-score wins and finish the season ranked for the first time since 2000.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Arkansas 1.62
The Hogs topped 400 yards in every conference game and scored at least 30 points in every game but one. They needed all those yards and points because the defense was still below average.

Worst Offense: Vanderbilt -2.28
Vandy had a few decent games moving the football, gaining 400 yards against Kentucky and 333 versus Tennessee. However, they also had more than a few stinkers. They were held to 153 yards or fewer in games versus LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida.

Best Defense: Florida 1.37
The Gators chomped down on opposing offenses. The only SEC team to top 400 yards against them was Georgia.

Worst Defense: Vanderbilt -2.10
The 'Dores double-dipped in 2010, fielding both the worst offense and defense in the SEC. They began conference play with respectable performances against LSU and Ole Miss, limiting those two teams to just 389 yards per game. However, they imploded over their last six, allowing an average of 501 yards per game!

Auburn, Florida, and the Plexiglass Principle
On the surface, it may look like Auburn and Florida had extremely divergent seasons. Auburn finished undefeated and won their first national title since 1957, while Florida lost five games for the first time since 2004. However, both schools did post conference records that were drastically different from the ones they posted the season before. For Auburn, the change was very positive. The Tigers went from a 3-5 mark in 2009 to an unblemished 8-0 mark and SEC West championship in 2010. For Florida, the results were entirely dissimilar. The Gators went from an unblemished 8-0 mark and SEC East championship to a .500 record in the SEC. The Tigers improved by five games and the Gators declined by four games. What can this significant improvement and decline tell us about the teams in 2011? To attempt to answer that question, I looked at all SEC schools in the BCS era (1998-2010) that had either improved by five games or declined by four games in league play and how they performed in the year following their significant improvement or decline. Here are the results, first for those teams that featured marked improvement. As you would probably have guessed, improving by at least five games in league play is a relatively rare occurrence. Besides Auburn in 2010, it happened just three other times since 1998. With such a small number of observations, we can give a brief summary of the each team.
South Carolina 99-00
The Gamecocks not only went from winless in the SEC, but winless overall to a top-20 finish and five conference wins. 2000 marked the second year of the Lou Holtz regime and the end of a 21-game losing streak. The Gamecocks followed up their rise with an equally impressive 5-3 mark and another top-20 finish in 2001.
Arkansas 05-06
Arkansas lost a slew of close games in 2005 (four of their six league losses came by a combined 13 points). They rode the backfield tandem of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (and some new formation called the Wildcat) to the SEC West title in 2006. With McFadden and Jones still in the fold in 2007, they dipped to 4-4.
Ole Miss 07-08
Like South Carolina nearly a decade before, the Rebels went from winless in the SEC to 5-3. It took Lou Holtz two seasons to turn the tide in Columbia, but Houston Nutt accomplished the feat in his first year at the helm in Oxford. Quarterback transfer Jevan Snead led the Rebels to a Cotton Bowl win and top-20 finish. The Rebels were the darlings of the 2009 preseason, but failed to make the major breakthrough many pundits expected and actually slipped to 4-4.

Here are the results for those teams that declined significantly. Once again the sample is relatively small with just six teams besides Florida in 2010 fitting the bill.
Alabama 99-00
In 1999, Alabama won the SEC behind future NFL star Shaun Alexander. They began the 2000 season ranked number three in the country, but fell to UCLA in the season opener. It got worse from there as the Tide won only three league games. Head coach Mike DuBose was dumped and under new coach Dennis Franchione, the Tide improved by one game to 4-4 in 2001.
Kentucky 99-00
Kentucky played in their final bowl game under Hal Mumme in 1999, finishing 4-4 in the SEC. Their quarterback? Tim Couch? Nope. Jared Lorenzen? Nope. Dusty Bonner. Bonner transferred prior to the 2000 season and Lorenzen became the starter. He posted solid numbers, but the defense allowed nearly 35 points per game, the team went winless in the SEC, and Mumme was canned. Guy Morriss took over, but the Wildcats only improved to 1-7 in 2001.
Alabama 02-03
This marks the Tide's second, but not final, appearance on this list. Alabama actually won the SEC West in 2002, but was ineligible for postseason play. Head coach Dennis Franchione bolted to Texas A&M after the season and the Tide hired Mike Price. Coach Price paid a dear one for an alleged trip to a strip club and subsequent hotel tryst, never coaching a game for the Tide. The Tide then brought in Mike Shula, but the Tide won only two league games. He did get the Tide to a bowl game the following year, but they won just three SEC games.
Ole Miss 03-04
David Cutcliffe rode Eli Manning to a shared SEC West crown and Cotton Bowl title in 2003. After Manning became the number one pick in the draft, the team understandably declined in 2004, falling to 3-5 in the SEC. Unfortunately for Cutcliffe and Ole Miss, the coach was given the axe and replaced with Ed Orgeron. Orgeron proceeded to run the program further into the ground, winning just one SEC game in 2005 (and only three during his deplorable three-year tenure).
Tennessee 04-05
The Vols won oodles of close games in 2004. Six of their seven SEC wins came by a touchdown or less. In fact, they were the inspiration for my very first blog post. Their luck turned in 2005 and the team slipped to 3-5. Phil Fulmer had them back near the top of the SEC in 2006, when they won five league games.
Alabama 05-06
You again? After seemingly getting the program back amongst the nation's elite with six SEC wins and a Cotton Bowl berth behind a stout defense in 2005, Mike Shula lost his job after a 2-6 showing in 2006. Nick Saban was hired and the Tide managed a slight improvement to 4-4 in 2007.
Sample size is an issue here of course, but when projecting Auburn and Florida's respective 2011 seasons, it pays to take heed of the Plexiglass Principle. Teams that improve significantly in one season tend to decline the next and vice-versa. Without Cam Newton, they Tigers aren't likely to win another SEC title in 2011, but of the teams that improved by at least conference games, their average decline the following season was just a little over one win. Auburn still has a top-notch offensive mind in coordinator Gus Malzahn, so they while they may fade from the pinnacle of the national stage, they should be lurking around the nether regions of the top-25. Meanwhile, for Florida, the Gators should expect some improvement in 2011. Five of the six teams that declined significantly improved by at least one game the following season. The only team that did not improve was Ole Miss. While the Gators did undergo a coaching change like Ole Miss, Florida has infinitely more tradition and infrastructure. Plus, they didn't hire Ed Orgeron.

2010 Pac-10 SDPI

2011-04-07T13:04:00.000-07:00

This week, we'll try to shed out East Coast bias as we head out west to take a look at the Pac-10, another league that will be getting a makeover in 2012. Once again, for a primer, here is the link to last year's Pac-10 post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Pac-10 regular season, conference play only, the average Pac-10 team gained and allowed 3533.5 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 661.93 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 359.76 yards. Cal gained 2629 yards and allowed 3010 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.37 = [(2629-3533.5)/661.93]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.46 = [(3533.5-3010)/359.76]. Their total SDPI was 0.09. This number ranked 6th in the Pac-10.

Here are the 2010 Pac-10 standings.Now here are the 2010 Pac-10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.The Pac-10 produced a BCS National Championship Game participant, as well as a second BCS team in 2010, but may have suffered a bit in terms of national perception thanks to the fact that only four of the ten (Southern Cal had enough wins, but were banned from the postseason) conference teams attained bowl eligibility. The Pac-10 became the first BCS conference since the 2005 Big East to send fewer than five teams to bowl games. The 2010 Pac-10 was a top-heavy league. Oregon and Stanford dominated their peers out west, going 16-0 against the other eight schools with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per game!

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
For the second year in a row, the Arizona State Sun Devils played better than their won/loss record showed. The Sun Devils were a shade above average on both sides of the ball, and should have probably finished with an extra league win, which would have gotten them to their first bowl game since 2007. However, the Sun Devils turned the ball over more than any Pac-10 team save UCLA and finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, resigning them to a third straight year of watching the postseason in Tempe.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
They may have closed the season with a nice hot streak, winning their final three regular season games, and upset a top-20 outfit in their bowl game, but Washington was still not quite ready for prime time. Four of their five league wins came by a touchdown or less (combined margin of 12 points), while each of their four losses came by at least 10 points (average margin of 29.5 points per game). The Huskies were slightly below average on both sides of the ball in 2010, so while their first postseason game since 2002 (and first win since 2000) is a nice bullet on Steve Sarkisian's resume, the rebuild ain't over yet.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oregon 1.63
Chip Kelly's spread and shred topped the Pac-10 in offense for the fourth straight year! The Ducks were number one out west when Kelly was the offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2008, and have done nothing but continue that success since he assumed the head coaching role prior to the 2009 season.

Worst Offense: Cal -1.37
Guess who is taking back the play-calling duties in Berkeley? Jeff Tedford has tutored many a fine collegiate quarterback, but 2010 represented rock bottom for the Golden Bears as they were held below 300 yards of offense in two thirds of their conference games. That's quite a shame too, considering how good their defense was.

Best Defense: Cal 1.46
Speak of the devil. Southern Cal and Stanford maimed the Golden Bears to the tune of 1069 total yards and 96 total points. In their other seven league games, Cal held the opposition to an average of 277 yards and 16 points per game.

Worst Defense: Washington State -1.94
The Cougars have now finished dead last in the Pac-10 in defense for three straight seasons and for four of the six years of the SDPI era (2005-2010).

Washington State: From Worse to Bad
To say the Washington State Cougars have been stuck in a rut under head coach Paul Wulff would be putting it very mildly. In Wulff's three seasons, the Cougars have beaten just three IA schools, and have lost by at least 30 points 16 times! However, the Cougars did show a few signs of life in 2010. They beat a Pac-10 team for the first time since their (Cr)Apple Cup win over Washington in 2008 and were competitive in several losses (losing one score games to Washington and Cal and staying within two touchdowns of Stanford and UCLA). The following table will show you just how far the Cougars have come since Wulff's first season. As you can see, the Cougars were historically bad in 2008. They scored eight total offensive touchdowns in their nine conference games while allowing 59! To put that number in perspective, consider this: If we take away field goals, safeties, and non-offensive touchdowns and then assume each offensive touchdown scored by Washington State is worth seven points, while each offensive touchdown scored by their opponents is only worth a single point, the Cougars would still have been outscored in 2008! They improved a little in 2009, primarily on the defensive side of the ball where they shaved off more than a quarter of their touchdowns allowed. In 2010, they went from historically inept to merely last-place bad. They actually managed to scored touchdowns on a semi-regular basis while cutting into their touchdowns allowed slightly. The Cougars have hopes to be more competitive in 2011, as their junior quarterback Jeff Tuel posted solid numbers as a sophomore (nearly 60% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions), and sophomore receiver Marquess Wilson topped 1000 yards through the air as a freshman. A bowl game is probably out of the question, but Pullman could no longer be a punchline.

2010 Big 12 SDPI

2011-03-29T15:28:00.000-07:00

The Big 12 will have a new look in 2011 with two fewer teams and one fewer championship game. However, before we bring the curtain down on the old Big 12, let's take one last look at this past season with SDPI. For a primer, here's the link to last year's SDPI post on the Big 12.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big 12 regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average Big 12 team gained and allowed 3256.25 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 616.65 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 506.61 yards. Colorado gained 2923 yards and allowed 3453 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.54 = [(2923-3256.25)/616.65]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.39 = [(3256.25-3453)/506.61]. Their total SDPI was -0.93. This number ranked 9th in the Big 12.

Here are the 2010 Big 12 standings.Now here are the 2010 Big 12 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.At the top of the standings the 2010 season played out according to the SDPI ratings. The top-ranked team from the North Division (Nebraska) met the top-ranked team from the South Division (Oklahoma), with the top-ranked overall team (Oklahoma) emerging victorious. Elsewhere in Big 12 land, the Longhorns, Big 12 Champions and BCS National Championship Game participants in 2009, failed to qualify for the postseason, suffering their first losing record since 1997.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
This one is pretty easy to answer. Despite their 2-6 conference record, and cellar finish in the Big 12 South, Texas was actually a solid team on a down-to-down basis. Behind defensive coordinator Will Muschamp (now the head man at Florida), the Longhorns remained stout on the defensive side of the ball, ranking behind only Nebraska for top honors in the Big 12. The offense understandably suffered a decline with the loss of Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley, but was just a shade below average. All things being equal, a 5-3, or at worse 4-4 league record should have been expected. However, the Longhorns turnover margin hampered any chance they had of competing in the Big 12 South. The Longhorns forced fewer turnovers (11) than all but two Big 12 teams, and they committed the most turnovers (23) by far of any team. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was mostly to blame, throwing 16 interceptions in eight league games. However, going forward Gilbert has the recruiting pedigree to be a star, and lets not forget his predecessor, Mr. McCoy, also had a bit of an interception problem as a sophomore.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Outside of Texas, there wasn't a great deal of disconnect between the actual standings and the SDPI ratings, but Missouri's underlying performance was not quite as strong as their division title (share) would indicate. The Tigers were a little below average on offense (hard to believe after their record breaking years under Chase Daniel) and above average on defense, making them a little better than average overall. The Tigers appeared to falter down the stretch (outside of their finale against an awful Kansas team) which brought their overall rating down. Through their first three games league games they outgained their league foes (including South Division co-champs Texas A&M and Oklahoma) by 52 yards per game. In their next four games (before their throttling of Kansas), the Tigers were outgained by 53 yards per contest.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oklahoma State 1.48
In his first year as offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Dana Holgorsen helped lead the Cowboys to a share of the Big 12 South title when most of the preseason prognosticators had called for a last place finish. You'll see him coordinating the West Virginia offense in 2011 and then in the head man's chair in 2012.

Worst Offense: Kansas -1.76
2007 is officially ancient history. In Turner Gill's first season, the Jayhawks were held below 300 yards in five of their eight league games. They did somehow manage to roll up 453 yards in their lone win over Colorado. However, just to show they didn't want to raise expectations heading into 2011, they gained 87 yards the next week versus Nebraska.

Best Defense: Nebraska 1.61
Bo Pelini does it again. In his three seasons as the Nebraska coach, the Cornhuskers have finished second, second, and first in the Big 12 in defense. The year before he arrived, they were dead last.

Worst Defense: Kansas -1.32
Yep 2007 is ancient history. if you're looking for bright spots, the Jayhawks performed much better in games against their division rivals in the North (426 yards per game allowed) than they did against teams from the South (599 yards per game allowed).

Texas Tech: Is the Offense Passing Away?
Mike Leach did several things during his decade-long run as head coach at Texas Tech. His teams always put up eye-popping offensive numbers, he presided over the most consistent run of success in Texas Tech history, and he may have locked Adam James in a shed. That last lapse in judgment got him fired, but what does it mean for the Texas Tech program? One year after his ouster, the program appears to have taken a step back. This past year, the Red Raiders posted their first losing season in Big 12 play since 2000, and for the first time since I have been calculating SDPI numbers (2005), the offense did not rank either first or second in the Big 12. In fact at just 0.20 standard deviations above average, the offense was about as un-Leach, at least in results, if not input as it could possibly be. Of course, a precursory glance at the numbers could tell you the offense declined, but exactly how much did it decline in relation to the rest of the conference? To answer this question, I looked at the passing numbers posted by Texas Tech in Big 12 play only for the past five seasons. The raw numbers as well as Tech's rank in the Big 12 in three key passing categories (completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, and passer rating) are included in the table below. The Red Raiders not only declined in raw statistics, but also in their rank within the conference. This decline was also across the board. After ranking either first or second in completion percentage in the conference in each of Leach's last four seasons, the Red Raiders fell to fifth in 2010. An even further descent occurred in yards per pass, where the Red Raiders fell to ninth and passer rating where they fell to eighth. Not only did the Red Raiders decline in every significant passing category, but outside of completion percentage, they were below average throwing the football! Head coach Tommy Tuberville and offensive coordinator Neal Brown did have the excuse that the system, while not new, was at least somewhat different from what Leach ran. However, they did not have the excuse that the personnel was different. Quarterback Taylor Potts was a senior who threw nearly 500 passes as a junior in 2009. In addition, their top-five receivers from 2009 all returned for duty in 2010. The Red Raiders do not have that luxury in 2011. Taylor Potts has exhausted his eligibility as have last season's top-two receivers, Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis. With that attrition on offense, the Red Raiders may fade further into the offensive abyss in the Big 12.