The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

We had a solid 4-2-1 week with both of our losses coming via the hook (and one in overtime). Oh, what could have been. We'll take it though.         

Last Week: 4-2-1

Overall: 23-24-2

California +20 SMU

The Golden Bears are an ugly dog and there are a lot of rumors swirling around the program regarding their star quarterback so this pick may age like box wine left out in the sun, but I like to dumpster dive sometimes. Let's go over the reasons I think Cal could keep this within three touchdowns. For starters, this is the bottom of the market for Cal. The Golden Bears were throttled at home in a great spot against Wake Forest last week. The Demon Deacons scored the first 41 points in that game en route to an easy win and cover in Berkeley. Secondly, SMU has low-key struggled (relatively) on offense this season. In their first season in the ACC (2024), the Mustangs averaged 38.2 points per game against power conference opponents. Last season, they averaged 32.5 points per game against power conference opponents. This season, they are only averaging 26.5 points per game in their four contests against power conference opponents. If the Mustangs struggle to get to thirty points, a lone Cal touchdown could be enough for them to cover this big number. Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi may end up being a one and done head coach based on how the last five games of the season shake out for the Bears, but I think they awake from hibernation and give a better effort this week. 

Toledo -3 Western Michigan

This game will go a long way toward determining the participants in the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan is unbeaten in MAC play, having won seven in a row in league play since losing to Miami last season. The defending MAC champs should be favored in their final four conference games, so an unbeaten MAC regular season is on the table if they can upset the Rockets. Meanwhile, this is a must win spot for Toledo. The Rockets lost at home to Buffalo as massive favorites two weeks ago and still have a trip to Ohio remaining on the schedule, so a loss here would make them underdogs to even reach Detroit on the first weekend in December. Outside of their inexplicable loss to Buffalo, Toledo has played better than Western Michigan against a marginally more difficult schedule. Western Michigan wants to keep the ball on the ground (they threw eight passes last week and have run the ball nearly 63% of the time in 2026), but Toledo should be able to keep them in check. I like the Rockets to win and cover in this spot. 

Central Michigan +2.5 Miami

This game seems like it should be played on a Tuesday or Wednesday night, but we are still a week or so away from November and the start of MACtion. Miami has played in the past three MAC Championship Games, and while the Redhawks are still technically alive in the conference race, that is more a function of their schedule rather than their team strength. The Redhawks have faced Akron (the worst MAC team outside of Sacramento State), Massachusetts (in their first game without Pop Watson at quarterback), and Bowling Green (who they lost to). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has also faced Akron, but their other two conference games have come against a pair of teams that are a combined 10-4 on the season (6-0 in MAC play) in Ohio and Western Michigan. Miami is also dealing with quarterback injuries and you can see it in their passing stats. In their past two games, the Redhawks have completed 14 of 36 passes (39%) for 160 yards (4.4 yards per pass). They have also allowed four sacks in those games, losing an additional thirty yards in the process. Add it all up and the Redhawks have dropped back to pass 40 times in the past two weeks and have netted 130 yards (3.3 yards per pass). Their passing attack is the apocryphal 'three yards and a cloud of dust'. They won both those games because they were +4 in turnovers. Being favored on the road while having quarterback issues against a team that has played a more difficult schedule is the recipe for an outright underdog win. 

Boston College +4 Georgia Tech

As I mentioned last week, Boston College has quietly been solid defensively. After allowing nearly 33 points per game last season, the Eagles are allowing just 23 points per game this season and have not allowed more than 25 points in any game since their opener at Cincinnati. Division II transfer quarterback Mason McKenzie also had his best game as a passer last week against Pitt when the former Saginaw Valley State player threw for 295 yards and averaged over ten yards per pass. I expect him to have another solid game against a weak Georgia Tech defense. Consider this. After a solid defensive performance against Colorado in their opener, the Yellow Jackets allowed 45 points to Tennessee. The Vols have averaged 22.8 points per game in their other contests against power four teams. They allowed 34 points to Stanford. The Cardinal have averaged under six points per game in their other games against power four teams. The Yellow Jackets did hold Duke below their average against power conference opponents (scored 25 and averaged 28.7 in their other power conference games), but last week, Virginia Tech moved the ball at will and accumulated 34 points after averaging 27.3 points per game in their other power conference contests. I think Boston College could score thirty for the first time this season. The Yellow Jackets have also performed poorly as a home favorite under head coach Brent Key. They are 5-8 ATS with six outright losses. I think Boston College could get their fourth win of the season on Saturday and cash their preseason win total of 3.5. 

Vanderbilt +11 Kentucky

Kentucky has won five in a row, with four of those wins coming against SEC opponents. Since the SEC expanded in 1992, the Wildcats have never finished with more than five SEC wins. Obviously, if Kentucky performs as the betting market predicts, they will equal that conference win mark before Halloween. After conference clashes with Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma, this should be a cakewalk right? As the great Lee Corso might say, 'Not so fast, my friend'. Since 2010, these teams have faced off eight times in Lexington. Kentucky has entered that game as a double digit favorite six times. They have covered once in that role and have lost outright twice, including the past two meetings. Vanderbilt's home loss to Arkansas last week likely cost them a shot at a bowl game, but they are still a dangerous team, covering in both of their road games this season. Under Clark Lea, they are 16-8-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 8-1-1 since 2024. Kentucky has some glossy point totals on their resume, but if we strip out their overtime scores against South Carolina and LSU, they are averaging 24.6 points per game in SEC play. If the Commodores can score a couple of touchdowns, they should be able to cover this number. 

Syracuse +8 North Carolina

North Carolina is a contender in the ACC conference race. That statement may be misleading and dishonest, but it is also technically true. Off back to back conference wins, the Tar Heels are 2-1 in the ACC, matching last season's conference and overall win total at the season's midpoint. Their run of contention probably ends next week when they host Miami, but then again, Mario Cristobal is always good for at least one stinker each season. But before the Tar Heels can get hyped to host the likely number one team in the country, they must take care of business against a Syracuse team that has lost eleven straight conference games under head coach Fran Brown. While the losses have mounted this season, Syracuse has been kept things close for the most part. Three of their four defeats have come by one possession and they have been outscored by 28 total points in those games. By contrast, all three of North Carolina's FBS wins have come by five points or less. The Tar Heels have played well in the clutch, but their offense is limited and they have not been able to get margin on teams. They have played fifteen games against power conference opponents under Bill Belichick, and have averaged just over 18 points per game in those contests, never eclipsing 27 points. This game should be played in the high teens or low twenties. I would be shocked if North Carolina scores more than 24 points in this game. In addition, North Carolina's success this season has come as a betting underdog. They have been underdogs in all five of their FBS games (won three outright and covered in four). This marks just the second time they have been favored against a power conference opponent under Belichick (previous time was last season against Stanford against whom they did not cover). I expect a low scoring somewhat boring game that Syracuse finds a way to yack up. 

UTSA -2.5 Tulane

Perhaps I need to cut Tulane a break and come off of my preseason priors when evaluating their performance this season. The Green Wave are 3-3 and are coming off a victory against league favorite Memphis. However, if you take a closer look at the box score, you see the Green Wave benefitted from six Memphis turnovers, including a pick-six that dramatically altered the flow and script of the game. I thought Tulane made a bad hire in Will Hall, a coach that performed poorly as the head man at Southern Miss (14-30 overall record). After knocking it out of the park with their last two hires (Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall), I felt the hire was uninspired and a great way to send Tulane back to the wasteland of college football, a place they occupied for most of the 21st century. A turnover fueled victory against a coach with a penchant for losing as a favorite (Charles Huff lost 23 regular season games as the head coach at Marshall and Southern Miss between 2021 and 2025 and 12 of those losses came as a betting favorite) does not dissuade me from that opinion. At 3-0 in the conference, UTSA is in the driver's seat for a spot in the American Championship Game, and potentially a darkhorse shot at the College Football Playoff. A bye for the Roadrunners is on the horizon, so they should be able to give maximum effort and beat the Green Wave by more than a field goal. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

Another losing week makes it four out of six in the red. After this week, we will be roughly halfway through the season. Time to turn this thing around.        

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 19-22-1

Indiana +3.5 Ohio State

The Hoosiers have looked mortal in their two games against legitimate competition in 2026. They held off Northwestern three weeks ago and then last week needed a fourth quarter rally to beat Nebraska last week. However, their underlying performance has still been excellent. Against the their three Big 10 opponents (the aforementioned foes and woebegone Rutgers), the Hoosiers have averaged 2.72 more yards per play. By contrast, Ohio State has faced Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland, and outgained those three teams by 2.10 yards per play. Nebraska and Northwestern both seem to be pretty good, while Illinois and Maryland are bad and worse. Curt Cignetti has lost two homes games as an FBS head coach, with both coming during his tenure at James Madison. He has never been a home underdog at the FBS level. Meanwhile, under head coach Ryan Day, in an admittedly small sample, the Buckeyes are just 1-2-1 as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. They lost both non-covers outright (2021 at Michigan and 2024 at Oregon). The Buckeyes have already shown they are fully capable of coughing up a winnable game on the road. I trust Curt Cignetti much more than I trust Ryan Day. Take the Hoosiers in a spot you are unlikely to see them again, as a home underdog. 

Boston College +6.5 Pittsburgh

Widely expected to be one of the worst power conference teams in 2026, Boston College has been quietly competent, especially on defense. After allowing 34 points in their opener at Cincinnati, the Eagles have held their next three FBS opponents to 25 points or less and have covered all three games. They were only able to win one outright thanks to an inconsistent offense. Quarterback Mason McKenzie, a Division II transfer, runs well (437 rushing yards), but is limited as a passer and makes too many mistakes. His supporting cast is also less than stellar. No player has more 169 receiving yards and the team's second leading rusher has 200 fewer yards on the ground than McKenzie. Still, the Eagles have been able to ugly up their games and with Pittsburgh coming to town with a backup quarterback, another ugly, low-scoring games seems to be on the horizon. The Panthers opened the season 5-0, but lost their starting quarterback in their victory against Virginia Tech. Their veteran backup, Holden Geriner, did not play well in his first start last week against North Carolina. The Panthers scored a touchdown on their opening drive and then hit a big pass early in the fourth quarter on another touchdown drive, but in between, the Panthers managed just three points. Without a barrage of turnovers from Boston College, its hard to envision the Panthers scoring more than 24 points. This should be a low-scoring field position battle. In that situation, I like the team catching nearly a touchdown. 

Ball State +6.5 Bowling Green

After an 0-4 start, Bowling Green is unbeaten in MAC play, having beaten seasoned MAC member Miami of Ohio and newcomer Sacramento State. The most recent victory against the Hornets was impressive, but seems to be more a testament to how bad Sacramento State is instead of any indication of greatness on the part of Bowling Green. While Bowling Green enters with some momentum, Ball State has dropped four in a row and has not beaten an FBS team this season. However, their schedule has been much tougher than Bowling Green's. The Cardinals have faced two good to great Big 10 teams (Northwestern and Ohio State), perhaps the best team in Conference USA (Liberty), and the most talented team in the MAC (Toledo). They also faced Kent State with their backup quarterback which is part of the reason they managed only thirteen points against the Golden Flashes. Their starting quarterback, Keldric Luster, should be good to go in this spot and he has played well against the non-power conference teams the Cardinals have faced. The Falcons victory over Sacramento State (basically an FCS team) is inflating this line and I expect Ball State to have a real shot to win this game outright. 

Massachusetts +6.5 Buffalo

In our ever changing world, its good to know some things are constant. For Mid-American Conference fans, that one constant is Toledo losing as a massive favorite. Buffalo upset the Rockets in Toledo last week as a nearly three touchdown underdog. Jason Candle may be gone to Connecticut, but his spirit lives on in northwestern Ohio. The victory was the first by the Bulls against an FBS opponent as they struggled to put away a pair of FCS teams earlier in the year (Albany and Robert Morris). While the Bulls prevailed, they have yet to put up world beating numbers on offense. Buffalo has scored 73 total points in their four games against FBS teams, with the 23 they scored against Toledo representing their high water mark. When a team struggles to exceed twenty points, asking them to lay almost a touchdown might be pushing it. Buffalo does get to face a diminished Minutemen squad in upstate New York. Two weeks ago, the Minutemen were undefeated and dreaming about a potential trip to Detroit in early December. Two losses and an injury to their starting quarterback later and the Minutemen are staring down the barrel of yet another losing season. Outside of Toledo and Western Michigan, the rest of the MAC is a lot of teams of similar quality. Buffalo is getting a little too much love in the betting market after beating a team that is regularly upset. I think this is another game where scoring is at a premium. Take the underdog catching nearly a touchdown.

Georgia Tech +10 Virginia Tech

After a rough opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech has quietly morphed back into the football team they always strive to be under head coach  and former offensive lineman Brent Key. The team rushed for 51 yards against Colorado, and averaged under two yards per carry. In their next three games against FBS competition, the Yellow Jackets have increased their per carry average, culminating in them averaging over six yards per rush against Duke last week. Quarterback Alberto Mendoza has also played well in every game save for Tennessee. At 2-3, Georgia Tech has made a bowl game a dicey proposition, but this team should be in every game the rest of the way, with the potential exception of Georgia. Meanwhile, after a hot start, Virginia Tech has cooled off. The Hokies have dropped their past two games, despite being solid favorites in both. The Hokies have not beaten a power conference team by more than nine points and that victory (Maryland) is looking worse and worse by the minute. Take the Yellow Jackets to keep this one close. 

Oklahoma State +5 Houston

Years from now when historians are perusing the 2026 college football season on sports-reference, one of the most inexplicable results will be Oklahoma State's loss to Tulsa. The Cowboys scored ten points against the Golden Hurricane and averaged less than five yards per pass. Since that defeat, Oklahoma State has scored 122 points in their three games against FBS competition. Meanwhile, Tulsa has dropped three of four games against FBS opponents while allowing 113 points in their last three games. There is no preseason in college football, so maybe that result is just a function of early season variance. When handicapping Oklahoma State, I would recommend tossing that game out. It has not had any predictive value for their other four games. Meanwhile, Houston is 5-1 with their lone loss coming on the road to defending Big 12 champion Texas Tech. However, Oklahoma State will represent the best offense Houston has faced this season. I don't think the Cougars will be able to get enough stops to cover this number. 

Navy +7 UTSA

Halfway through the 2026 season, the Roadrunners from San Antonio are 5-1 with their only loss coming at Texas. After a relatively disappointing first three seasons (at least compared to how they closed in Conference USA) in the American Conference, the Roadrunners have a great shot at playing in the conference title game. They are an indomitable force at home in the Alamodome, where they are 35-6 straight up under head coach Jeff Traylor. However, some of losses provide a clue into how this game could turn out. Three of their five home losses under Traylor have come to Army. The Midshipmen run a different variation of the triple option (specifically, the Wing T version), but they are difficult to prepare for and utilize strategies (going for it on fourth down and reducing the number of possessions) that introduce more variance and benefit the underdog. Navy is a tough luck 2-3 on the year, losing one possession games to Air Force, Florida Atlantic, and UAB. After finishing 5-0 in one possession games last season, they were due for some regression. Navy cannot throw the ball as well as they did over the past few seasons (especially when the opponent knows they are throwing) when they had the dynamic Blake Horvath playing quarterback, but I don't think they will fall far behind or face many third and longs. In addition, they have done a great job thus far of shutting down their opponents' running game. No team has been able to average four yards per carry against them. They should put the Roadrunners in enough third and longs and make enough stops to keep this one interesting. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

We in fact, did not start October strong. Let's see if we can bounce back.       

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 17-17-1

Wyoming +6 San Jose State

I'm always wary backing Wyoming away from Laramie. Under head coach Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys are just 3-12 straight up in true road games, including 0-3 this season. However, I don't think this line is properly accounting for the brutal travel spot the home team occupies. The Spartans played at Hawaii last week and upset the Rainbow Warriors while improving to 3-2 on the season. Now they have to travel back to San Jose and face a conference rival on a short week. Since 2021, fourteen FBS teams have traveled to Hawaii and then played another game against an FBS opponent the following week. Those teams are 6-8 straight up, but 3-11 ATS. Favorites performed a bit better, posting a 6-3 straight up record, but they were just 3-6 ATS. The sample size is small, but this line is probably inflated by a point or two. In addition, while Wyoming has been quite poor in road games the past few seasons, San Jose State does not have the offensive firepower to run away and hide. The Spartans have not scored more than 27 points against an FBS team this season. I expect this to be an ugly game that is played in the high teens or low twenties. As the Cowboys are catching nearly a full touchdown, they are the play. 

North Carolina +3.5 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh upset Virginia Tech last week to move to 5-0 and makes themselves a player in the ACC conference race. However, in the process, they also lost their starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a season ending injury. Holden Geriner came in and played well in relief in the upset win. Geriner previously saw limited action for Auburn and Texas State, so this game against North Carolina will be the first extended action of his career. I think Bill Belichick, even an aged, Belichick, can concoct a gameplan to induce some turnovers from the old, but inexperienced quarterback. Pitt was also very fortunate to win the game against the Hokies irrespective of their quarterback injuries. The Panthers were outgained by 200 yards and averaged two fewer yards per play than the Hokies. However, they were +4 in the turnover margin. Even with the turnover advantage, Virginia Tech still had to miss a very makeable field goal to keep Pitt unbeaten. North Carolina has been better than expected this season, beating TCU in Ireland, having Clemson on the ropes in Death Valley, and acquitting themselves reasonably well against Notre Dame. A bowl game is not out of the question and the only surefire loss remaining on the schedule is against Miami. I expect the Tar Heels to be play well and keep this game within a field goal. The series history also seems to favor North Carolina. The Panthers are just 3-6 against the Tar Heels under Pat Narduzzi, including 2-3 in Pittsburgh.

Vanderbilt +9.5 Ole Miss

After the 2023 season, Clark Lea threw up his own Hail Mary and imported various pieces of the New Mexico State team to Nashville. The most famous of those pieces was Heisman finalist Diego Pavia, but he was not the only one. Two of the more important additions don't play at all. New Mexico State head coach, and all around revitalization expert, Jerry Kill has been a consultant since 2024 and Tim Beck (not the former Coastal Carolina coach) has been the offensive coordinator for the same amount of time. Kill and Beck have made the Commodores dangerous underdogs. Vanderbilt plays slow, runs the ball, and goes for it on fourth down a lot. In Clark Lea's first three season, Vanderbilt was 12-17 ATS as an underdog, with three outright wins. Since the start of the 2024 season, Vanderbilt is 12-3-1 ATS with seven outright wins. Those splits hold when catching more than a touchdown (as they are in this spot). In Lea's first three seasons, the Commodores were 11-16 ATS with two outright wins. Since the import, they are 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. The Commodores have covered both games they entered as an underdog this season, playing an even game with Auburn on The Plains, but losing thanks to a blocked punt touchdown and covering as a massive underdog between the hedges in Athens. Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense, but their defense has issues. Teams not named Charlotte have scored 114 points on the Rebels in three games. Its hard to win by margin when the defense doesn't get any stops. A two touchdown lead late for Ole Miss will not be safe as the backdoor should be wide open for Vanderbilt to step through. 

Illinois -2.5 Michigan State

This one almost seems too easy right? Michigan State has been listless since opening the season with victories against two MAC schools. The Spartans have scored 26 total points in their past three games and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is on a personal twelve game losing skid against power conference opponents. That streak runs to eighteen games in the continental United States (last win against Nebraska in Ireland). Illinois is desperate, having lost their past three games to FBS teams, including upset home losses to Duke and Purdue. There are three ranked teams remaining on the schedule as well as an ascendant Northwestern and an unbeaten Nebraska, so the Illini are very much in danger of missing out on a bowl game altogether. If Illinois is able to score in the mid-20s, which I expect they will with their potent offense, Michigan State should not be able to keep up. 

Rice +10 East Carolina

The Owls have followed the Pirates to bigger and better conferences over the the past couple of decades. Rice joined Conference USA in 2005, eight seasons after the Pirates gave up their life of Independence in 1997. East Carolina left Conference USA in 2014 and joined the American. Rice hung out in the Conference USA wasteland for nearly another decade before joining the Pirates once again. The teams have only met once as American opponents, with Rice winning by seven in Houston in 2023. Things are very different now, with the Owls on a new coach and operating a variant of the option (to not great success). East Carolina is also led by a different head coach. Blake Harrell is the lead privateer after a solid first full season in charge, regression seems to have boarded the ship. The Pirates slipped by Old Dominion in Norfolk a few weeks ago and pounded North Carolina Central in their last game, but the offense has floundered, scoring 24 points or less in all three games against FBS competition. Despite their lack of success, Rice will keep the ball on the ground and reduce the number of possessions in this game, something one should look for in an underdog. The Pirates don't have the offense to put this game away, and I expect Rice to do enough to stay within striking distance. 

North Dakota State -3 UNLV

So far, FBS life has been easy for the Bison. After dominating FCS for the better part of two decades, North Dakota State made the decision to join the Mountain West in 2026. The decision came as a bit of a surprise, at least in its suddenness, but the results have been great thus far. The Bison are 5-0 and have won four of their games by double digits. They probably need the teams ahead of them in the Group Of Six pecking order to lose (Boise State and perhaps James Madison and Memphis), but they have a realistic shot to make the College Football Playoff in their first year at the highest level of the sport. Their opponent on Saturday likely felt the Mountain West was theirs for the taking in 2026. Long a college football wasteland, UNLV has put three consecutive good seasons together only to be foiled by Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game three straight times. With the Broncos off to the reconstituted Pac-12, there was no conference overlord to hold them down. The Rebels opened the season a somewhat disappointing 1-2, but have looked the part offensively over their past two games, scoring 77 combined points in wins against Akron and Cal. While the offense is probably better than it showed in the first three games (48 total points), the Zips and Bears are not the strongest of FBS defenses. North Dakota State likely represents the best defense UNLV has faced thus far this season (depending on your opinion of Memphis) and is a major step up from Akron and Cal. I don't think the betting market realizes how good North Dakota State is. I expected them to be laying closer to a touchdown in this spot. Take them laying this small number in Sin City. 

UTEP +9 Nevada

This game (that is somehow on FS1 and not MW+) might be a loser leaves town match for the head coaches. Both Jeff Choate (Nevada) and Scott Walden (UTEP) are in their third season at their respective schools and despite some optimism, things are bad. Nevada opened the Choate era by nearly beating eventual College Football Playoff participant SMU as a four touchdown underdog. They followed that up by beating the defending Sun Belt champion (Troy) on the road. However, since that 1-1 start, they are just 6-21 overall, having dropped their past three games after beating Western Kentucky in their opener this season. Meanwhile, for UTEP, the optimism was more in the hire itself. Scotty Walden was a coach in his mid-30's who had guided Austin Peay to four consecutive winning seasons and one FCS playoff appearance. Thus far in El Paso, he is 6-23 with two of those wins coming against FCS teams. These teams are bad, but they are pretty close in quality. I don't understand why Nevada is nearly a double digit road favorite. Their victory against Western Kentucky has not aged well (the Hilltoppers have not won an FBS game) and neither has their loss to Middle Tennessee State (Nevada is their only FBS win). Nevada did lose a close game to a very good FCS team (Montana State) and also fell in overtime to Air Force, but both those games came at home. UTEP has had a much tougher schedule, losing to Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Oregon State. None of the losses were particularly close, but those teams are not in UTEP's weight class. If you squint, you can see some good things coming for UTEP. Four of their next five games are at home and the Mountain West has some bad teams at the bottom. I wouldn't be shocked if UTEP won this game outright postponed the inevitable. Walden will save his job temporarily before the UTEP administration eventually Thoreaus him out (I apologize for that one).