tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post56145618846437406..comments2024-02-08T13:13:49.679-08:00Comments on Statistically Speaking: Twitter-ific Preview: Pac-10 and SECmatthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-33902674149742582942009-08-12T15:19:03.367-07:002009-08-12T15:19:03.367-07:00While I agree that John Chavis is no Bo Pelini (or...While I agree that John Chavis is no Bo Pelini (or Will Muschamp for that matter), he has had plenty of success. Granted most of it was nearly a decade ago, but he's certainly going to be an improvement from last year's bizarre co-DC experiment. Combining improved defense and quarterback play that at the very least should be average instead of "OMG WTF Why am I crying?" bad LSU has a real chance. I think there are a lot of question marks across the SEC. Like I said before, I'm not really buying Ole Miss, Bama, or UGA as elite teams. You can throw LSU in that pile too. One or two of those teams are going to step up while some may be very disappointing (cough Ole Miss). In my fan-biased perspective, LSU's the team that will wind up having the right stuff. Also, we thankfully aren't playing Tennessee this year. Our third draw from the east is Vandy, which should be a much easier game.<br /><br />As for Les Miles, I think he's cleverer than he appears. Over the last 4 seasons the Tigers are 14-5 in close games, have four blowout wins in bowl games, and a national title. When it comes down to it, Les wins (a lot) more than he loses, which is good enough for me.Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10491376326558090761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-57716261915373212182009-08-08T08:59:20.398-07:002009-08-08T08:59:20.398-07:00Sam, good points as always, but I'm inclined t...Sam, good points as always, but I'm inclined to disagree with you on this issue. <br /><br />My projection system doesn't 'pick' games, at least in the since that it assigns a winner and loser to each. It gives a probability of victory for each team, and when the probabilities of victory are added up for LSU, they equal 4.2. Of course, this rounds down to 4, and with some of the projections, I have made manual adjustments if they didn't 'seem' right. LSU's does seem right to me for several reasons.<br /><br />1. I think people are reading too much into their bowl beatdown of GT.<br /><br />2. The schedule. Even if they split that 4 game juggernaut with Fl, Ga, Miss, and Ala, I could still picture either Arkansas or Tennessee upsetting them. IMO, the only gimme is Miss St.<br /><br />3. I think Pelini was responsible for the great peformance by the defense. Just look at how much worse they got when he left (and how good Nebraska's D became). Chavis is certainly a capable D-cord, but as recently as 07, his Tennessee D was the worst in the SEC.<br /><br />4. I don't think Miles is that good of an in-game coach. Even in the title year, the Tigers lost to Kentucky and Arkansas. I think his penchant for gambling will come back to bite him sooner or later.<br /><br />I think LSU's ceiling is 5 wins, and that could conceivably be enough to win the west, but I wouldn't bet on it.matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07863019168368782406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14955809.post-24073371896581364922009-08-06T17:31:16.137-07:002009-08-06T17:31:16.137-07:00How are you putting LSU at 4-4? Do you have them ...How are you putting LSU at 4-4? Do you have them losing all of their big games (UF, UGA, Ole Miss, Bama) or do you think they'll pick up one there and drop one to a lesser team?<br />Last year was pretty much a nightmare and this year's schedule is beastly, but the Tigers have way too much going for them to not finish above .500. Jarret Lee was 14/16 TDs/Ints (7 of which were returned for TDs). That's not going to happen again. LSU had the worst pass defense in the conference. That's not going to happen again either. Expect the Tigers to split those four big games and maybe if they're worn down from the schedule they might drop another along the way. I'm not sold on Alabama, Ole Miss, or Georgia. Don't be surprised if LSU wins the West at 6-2.Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10491376326558090761noreply@blogger.com