First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Power Four

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Four.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2024 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

The first and third ranked teams in 1HPD met in the ACC Championship Game, with the third ranked team pulling off a small upset. More on the team that finished second in IHPD later. 

Big 10

The 2024 Big 10 standings.

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

The first and fourth ranked teams in 1HPD met in the Big 10 Championship Game with the top ranked team holding on to win. However, the top four teams in 1HPD were all selected for the expanded College Football Playoff with the third ranked team winning it all. At the bottom of the 1HPD standings, Purdue made their nine Big 10 opponents look like Oregon, posting a horrid -152 1HPD and getting Ryan Walters fired in the process. 

Big 12

The 2024 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Arizona State finished first in 1HPD and won the Big 12 Championship Game in their first season in the conference. However, their opponent in the title game (Iowa State) finished a distant eleventh in 1HPD. At the other end of the Territorial Cup, Arizona brought up the rear in 1HPD. 

SEC

The 2024 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play.

Texas finished first in the SEC in 1HPD in their first season in the conference, but lost the SEC Championship Game to Georgia. The other SEC newcomer from the Big 12 did not fare as well. Oklahoma finished ahead of only winless Mississippi State in 1HPD. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Four conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Missouri finished 5-3 in SEC play, but the Tigers trailed at the half in five of their conference games and entered halftime tied in two others. Iowa State won seven Big 12 games and thanks to tiebreakers, qualified for the Big 12 Championship Game. While the Cyclones only trailed at the half in two of their nine conference games, most of their games were still in doubt during the intermission. They led at the half in six conference games, but five of those leads were by five points or fewer. Miami nearly played in the ACC Championship Game before ironically blowing a second half lead to Syracuse. Turnabout was fair play, as the Hurricanes trailed at the half in four of their eight ACC games, including twice by double digits. Georgia won their second SEC title in three years, but trailed at the half in four of their eight SEC games. 

And now the underachievers. 

Virginia Tech finished second in the ACC in 1HPD, leading at the half in an astounding seven of their eight conference games! Kentucky won just a single SEC game, but the Wildcats were competitive at the half in a majority of their games. They led at the half in three conference games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. Wisconsin won just a third of their Big 10 games, but led at the half in two thirds of their conference games, including four times by double digits. Utah failed to live up to their preseason expectations in 2024, but the Utes led at the half in three Big 12 games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in three more. Auburn mastered giving games away in 2024. The Tigers were ahead or tied at the half in five of their eight SEC games. In Mack Brown's final season in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels finished with a losing ACC record despite leading at the half in four of their eight conference games. They led by double digits in three of those games, and were tied or within a touchdown at the half in three more. Now another septuagenarian will attempt to bring the Tar Heels to the forefront of college football. Finally, Nebraska finished 3-6 in Big 10 play, but led by double digits at halftime in three of their conference games, led by a touchdown in another, and were tied in two others. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will almost be time for the season to start.