The Magnificent Seven: Week V

Finally. We had our first winning week. It did take a late backdoor from Temple, but we also missed two games by the hook. All in all, I think it was deserved. Lets see if we can put together a winning streak.  

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 10-18

Virginia +6.5 Florida State

After upsetting Alabama over Labor Day Weekend, Florida State has basically had a month off before returning to action on Friday. They pounded East Texas A&M (FCS) and a team that probably should be FCS (Kent State). In between those two games, they had a bye to kick up their legs and enjoy their shiny top ten ranking. So through three games, they have pounded two teams nowhere near their talent level and ambushed an Alabama team that has also not accomplished much in the early going. As is almost always the case, Alabama entered the season with great expectations. And like Pip, they may reach those lofty goals (I don't remember the plot of Great Expectations, so maybe Pip didn't reach them), but thus far, they have also dominated two overmatched teams (Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin) so we don't really know how good they are. To sum things up, Florida State engineered a massive upset against a team the jury is still out on and crushed two teams that are not in their weight class. Now they go on the road for the first time all season against a competent opponent celebrating the 30th anniversary of one of their biggest wins in program history (which also came in a game not played on Saturday). I expect to see a lot of highlights on ESPN of Warrick Dunn taking a shotgun snap. This is by far the best Virginia team of Tony Elliott's tenure with the team averaging over 45 points per game behind transfer quarterback Chandler Morris. Had Morris not thrown an interception in Raleigh with the Cavaliers driving against NC State, Virginia would likely be undefeated and this spread would probably be significantly less than a touchdown. I expect Virginia to keep this one close and would not be surprised if the weekend starts off with a top ten upset. 

Connecticut -3.5 Buffalo

Both these teams were trendy picks in the offseason. A lot of college football podcasts I respect thought the Bulls could build on last season's nine win campaign and compete in the MAC. Similarly, despite the presence of three power conference teams on the schedule, Connecticut's over/under win total was 7.5. For the record, I bet the under win total for both of these teams back in the summer. Hopefully, at least one of those bets gets home. I think I had a pretty good read on both of these teams as each has been a little disappointing thus far in 2025. Connecticut nearly beat Syracuse on the road, but they also lost to FBS newbie Delaware and were life and death with Ball State last week. However, I think you have to be more dissuaded from what Buffalo has done thus far. The Bulls played Minnesota relatively close on the scoreboard in their opener, but the Gophers nearly tripled their total yardage and should have won by more. Then they dominated their FCS opponent St. Francis. However, the Red Flashes are transitioning down to Division III. They then faced Kent State. The Golden Flashes are currently riding a twenty-five game FBS losing streak. However, the Bulls needed a late touchdown drive to pull that out of the fire. Finally, last week, at home against Troy and their backup quarterback, they surrendered a double digit second half lead. Connecticut has dominated this series between northeast have nots, winning fourteen of the sixteen meetings (ten of twelve as FBS opponents) with twelve of the fourteen victories coming by double digits, including last year's 47-3 drubbing against a Buffalo team that has clearly regressed. The Huskies should put up at least thirty in this spot and I don't think the Bulls will be able to keep up, especially not with their MAC schedule beginning in earnest next week against Eastern Michigan. 

Rice +14.5 Navy

When two service academies face off there are generally two tenets you should follow. Look for the under and if one is a significant favorite, look to the underdog. Rice is obviously not s service academy. Those nerds are probably not the ones we want defending our country. However, they have played like a service academy in their first season under Scott Abell. They run the ball and play slow. That reduces possessions and increases variance and (in theory) allows them to compete against teams with better talent. Navy has been doing the same thing for decades although they did modernize (or more accurately, adjust) the offense last season by adding concepts from the Delaware Wing T courtesy of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. The Midshipmen won ten games last season and are 3-0 as we pass the quarter poll of 2025. However, with Rice playing an option offense, I think they will be able to limit Navy's attack. The Midshipmen won't be shut down, but I think they finish significantly below their seasonal scoring average (44 points per game). The Midshipmen also may be looking ahead to next week when they face a real service academy in the Air Force Falcons. The total in this game is quite low for a two touchdown spread (currently sits at 44.5). In a game that figures to have limited possessions, I like the underdog catching north of two touchdowns.  

California +6.5 Boston College

Imagine for one second if this game had been played last week. The Golden Bears from Berkeley would have been 3-0 and Boston College would have been 1-2 coming off back to back losses to Michigan State and Stanford. Cal probably would have been favored, despite the cross country journey. Of course, this game was not played last week. And in the interim Boston College has had a bye to lick the wounds from their west coast trip while Cal suffered a shocking loss to San Diego State. There were some extenuating circumstances in that loss. First off, it was a road trip to a non-power conference in-state opponent a week before conference play so the Aztecs were likely highly motivated and Cal may have been sleep walking. The Bears seemed like they were in position to take control early in that game, driving 75 yards on their first possession before failing on a fourth down conversion at the two yard line. They also missed a field goal in the first half and gave up an eighty yard pass to fall behind by two scores. In the second half, San Diego State scored two defensive touchdowns to put the game out of reach. The 34-0 final score was a bit misleading. Not that Cal deserved to win, but the Aztecs are not five touchdowns better than the boys from Berkeley. So, based on the result of one game, this spread has likely moved by about a touchdown. That pretty much guarantees there is value in the underdog. The only concern one might have is the cross country trip. Well, lets look back at Cal's first season in the ACC. Their five road games last year came against Auburn (non-conference), Florida State, Pittsburgh, SMU, and Wake Forest. The Bears finished 2-3 in those games, but two of those losses (Florida State and Pittsburgh) came by less than a touchdown. The Bears were blown out in their road trip to SMU, but that was actually their shortest trip and probably more attributable to the quality of the Mustangs. This game is at a reasonable time (3:30 EST), so Cal should have an opportunity to adjust their internal body clocks. Boston College has played well on offense this season, but their defense is not good enough to be laying nearly a touchdown against a quality opponent. 

UCLA +6.5 Northwestern

The DeShaun Foster era is mercifully over after a season and quarter at UCLA. While Foster finishes with a 5-10 overall record and a damning home blowout loss to New Mexico, I think his failures are more systemic and a result of problems within the program rather than any particular ineptitude he possesses. Foster played for the Carolina Panthers and helped guide them to a Super Bowl appearance during his NFL career, so I could be a bit biased, but the Bruins probably need to make some structural changes if they are to compete in this new era of college football. That being said, I think they are good play this week. For starters, the interim coach, Tim Skipper, has experience in this sort thing. Last season, he took over as interim head coach at Fresno State after Jeff Tedford departed in the summer due to health reasons. Second, UCLA is coming off a bye, so they have had extra time to prepare with the new regime. Third, while this game will be played quite east of Los Angeles, it is not a Noon kick. UCLA will have a few extra hours to adjust. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, they are playing Northwestern. Full transparency, I was intrigued by Northwestern in the offseason. I liked the addition of quarterback Preston Stone from SMU. But instead of moving the Northwestern offense forward, it has regressed to the Stone Age. Stone has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (six to three) and the team has scored seventeen total points in two games against FBS competition. Its hard to win and even harder to cover if you can't score. Neither team in this game is good, but the difference between them is not close to a touchdown. Back the Bruins. 

Auburn +6.5 Texas A&M

These two former SEC West rivals have played every season since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012. Over those thirteen games, Auburn has eked out a 7-6 record. But perhaps the most interesting tidbit about this series is the performance of the road team and the underdog. The road team is 8-5 straight up and amazingly won the first six games in the rivalry between 2012 and 2017. The underdog is also 8-5 straight up in this series. Like Tiny Toon Adventures, it is usually best to expect the unexpected. Auburn is making their second consecutive tough road trip after losing in Norman last week and Texas A&M is off a bye, but I think the Tigers have a real chance to win this game outright. This will be by far the best defense Texas A&M has faced all season. Their first two opponents were non-power conference teams (UTSA and Utah State) and while their win in South Bend was impressive, this may be the worst defense Notre Dame has fielded since the invention of the forward pass. Auburn is eighth nationally in tackles for loss (32) so they should be able to wreck some havoc in the Aggies backfield. Of course, the Aggies should be able to force their fair share of pressure against an Auburn team that allowed ten sacks last week. The Tigers line and quarterback Jackson Arnold's propensity to hold the football too long will probably prevent them from winning this game, but they arguably outplayed Oklahoma in Norman last week. This line should be closer to a field goal, so take the added value in the Tigers from The Plains. 

Florida Atlantic +13.5 Memphis

Memphis put themselves in position to contend for the College Football Playoff by knocking off SEC neighbor Arkansas in a classic last week. The Tigers fell behind 28-10 in the first half, but outscored the Razorbacks 22-3 the rest of the way to eke out a win. Can they maintain their focus as they travel to Boca Raton to face a Florida Atlantic team that has struggled in Zach Kittley's first season in charge? In two games against FBS competition, the Owls have turned the ball over (either via interception or turnover on downs) on 19 of 28 possessions (excluding those possessions that close the half). Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has already thrown seven interceptions after throwing ten all of last season. And the team as a whole has a turnover margin of minus 8. That helps explain why they have lost to Maryland and Florida International by a combined 42 points despite winning the yardage battle. With a bye week to get in sync and some positive regression in the turnover department (just one forced turnover in three games), I think the Owls are primed to take flight on offense. The next three games for Memphis are against these Owls, Tulsa, and UAB. Most casual observers figure they should be 7-0 before hosting South Florida in late October. However, the Tigers have made a habit of losing or coming close to losing road games under Ryan Silverfield. They are just 7-12 in road conference games under his watch. They may not drop to 7-13 after Saturday, but the Owls will put up a fight at home. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

The good news is, we did better than last week. That was about the only good news. Time to find some winners. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 6-15

Memphis +7.5 Arkansas

This pick should be sponsored by Jimmy John's (or Firehouse, or Jersey Mike's, or even Subway) because it is the ultimate sandwich spot. Last week, Arkansas faced conference rival Ole Miss in a high-scoring hard-fought battle. The Razorbacks ultimately fell in Oxford, dropping their third straight to the Rebels. And next week, the Hogs host the nation's best 0-2 team, Notre Dame. But now, they travel to the Liberty Bowl to face one of the stronger non-power teams in the country. Memphis has been successful under head coach Ryan Silverfield, but they have yet to win the American. In fact, the Tigers have failed to even appear in the American Championship Game. However, the Tigers have managed to beat some power conference teams over the past few seasons. They knocked off Mississippi State at home in 2021 and beat Florida State in Tallahassee last season. They have also beaten Iowa State and West Virginia in bowl games over the past two seasons. Collectively, the Tigers are 4-2 against power conference opponents, including 2-0 at home. Memphis is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog in the regular season under Silverfield, with four outright victories. Meanwhile, Arkansas is not used to laying points on the road under head coach Sam Pittman. Pittman arrived in Fayetteville prior to the 2020 season. In those five plus seasons, the Razorbacks have been road favorites just four times. Those instances came against LSU in 2021, Auburn and Missouri in 2022, and Mississippi State last season. Those four teams combined to finish 19-29 in the regular season. LSU and Missouri were the best of the bunch at 6-6. Memphis will be highly motivated to beat a team in their region from the mighty SEC. Couple that with the sandwich spot for Arkansas and the Tigers are a real threat to win the game outright. 

Miami (Ohio) +2.5 UNLV

The spread in this game is very illuminating. An undefeated team is favored by less than a field goal on the road against a. winless team. UNLV may have the worst collection of victories thus far in 2025. The Rebels have beaten Idaho State (FCS), Sam Houston State, and UCLA (fired coach). Those three times have a combined 0-9 record with all of the losses coming by multiple scores except two of the games against UNLV. Idaho State and UCLA both lost to the Rebels in Allegiant Stadium by a touchdown. UNLV has had a week off to bask in the frivolity of their 3-0 start, but that is offset by Miami also coming off a bye. The Redhawks have faced a much more challenging schedule, losing road contests to Big 10 teams (Wisconsin and Rutgers). Under head coach Chuck Martin, the Redhawks typically take their lumps against power conference teams (2-15 straight up record), but they have fared much better against teams on their level. In regular season games, the Redhawks are 61-50 against fellow mid-majors and FCS teams (39-17 in such games since 2019). If these teams swapped schedules, Miami would likely enter this game with an unblemished record while UNLV would most likely be winless. In that scenario, Miami would probably be laying points. UNLV has issues on defense and is due for some regression in the turnover department (forced seven and are +5 through three games). Take the Redhawks to win this one outright. 

Northern Illinois +21.5 Mississippi State

After beating Arizona State thanks to a goal line stand and a late touchdown, Mississippi State had a week to read their press clippings before facing a truly awful FCS team in Alcorn State. Steve McNair's alma mater did not put up any fight, losing 63-0 to the Bulldogs and their cowbells. The Bulldogs are halfway through a four game home stand and have Tennessee on deck. The only thing standing between them and and their first 4-0 record since 2014 is Northern Illinois off a bye. What could go wrong? The Huskies don't have the firepower to win this game, but I think they can drag Mississippi State into the muck and make their life hell. Northern Illinois is not a triple option or service academy team, but they play like one. They play at a slow tempo, run the ball, and go for it on fourth down. That introduces more variance and helps them keep the game close against superior opponents. Under head coach Thomas Hammock, the Huskies are just 3-7 straight up on the road against power conference opponents. However, they are 7-3 ATS. If Northern Illinois falls down by multiple scores, they will be in a tough spot. As I mentioned, they cannot throw the ball, so there is almost no hope of them staging an epic comeback. Still, with a week off to prepare and with Tennessee up next for Mississippi State, I think the Huskies can frustrate the Bulldogs and keep this one close. 

Temple +23.5 Georgia Tech

Fresh off their home upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech is back in the AP Poll for the second time in as many seasons. Last season, their time as a ranked team was brief. After opening the year with victories against Florida State in Ireland and Georgia State in Atlanta, the Yellow Jackets lost at Syracuse and never reentered the AP Poll. The Yellow Jackets probably won't lose to Temple, although losing as a big home favorite is not something foreign to Georgia Tech under Brent Key. This is a bad spot for Georgia Tech as they have legitimate aspirations to get to the ACC Championship Game. Conference play begins in earnest next week when the Yellow Jackets travel to Wake Forest and its not a stretch to say Georgia Tech may be favored in all their remaining conference games. They may go off as a slight underdog at Duke or NC State, but they will not be a decisive underdog until they close the season with the boys from Athens. With everything in front of them, Georgia Tech has no incentive to run quarterback Haynes King into the ground. Including sacks, King carried the ball an Eddie George esque 25 times last week. He also carried the ball 19 times in their opener against Colorado. Since arriving at Georgia Tech prior to the 2023 season, King has carried the ball an average of 12.5 times against power conference opponents. In an admittedly small sample (four games), he has averaged just four carries per game against Group of Five and FCS opponents. The season is a quarter complete, but there are still nine regular season games remaining and the Yellow Jackets need a healthy King if they are to compete for an ACC title. I expect a conservative game plan that protects King and attempts to mitigate chances for injury. Georgia Tech also plays slow. While they no longer run the flexbone as they did under Paul Johnson, they tend to keep the ball on the ground and chew up the clock. That is great when you are catching points, but is not conducive to covering a large spread. Temple was walloped by Oklahoma last week, but I expect a better performance in Atlanta. 

Kennesaw State +6 Arkansas State

Arkansas State nearly upset a Big 12 team for the second time in six seasons. Its alright if you memory-holed the entire 2020 campaign, but the Red Wolves did win at Kansas State in their second game that year. That win did not propel them to big things, as they finished 4-7. It was their first of four consecutive losing seasons that was not broken until last year. After their tight loss to Iowa State, the Red Wolves travel to Kennesaw, Georgia in what most certainly will be a flat spot. Despite their solid showing on the scoreboard last week, Arkansas State was outgained by 70 yards and more than two yards per play by the Cyclones. And speaking of the boys from Ames, I'm not entirely convinced they are even that good. Their three FBS wins have all come by eight points or fewer against Kansas State, Iowa, and the aforementioned Arkansas State. Those three teams have one FBS win combined and it came against Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Kennesaw State got their first win of the Jerry Mack era last week when they beat Merrimack at home. Like Arkansas State, the Owls have also played two power conference opponents. And like Arkansas State, they hung tough in one and got destroyed in the other. Kennesaw State scored 27 points last week against their FCS opponent and I think they can come close to or exceed that number against a porous Arkansas State defense. The Red Wolves have allowed an average of at least 30 points per game over each of the past six seasons and early returns have not been promising. Arkansas State is 5-19 straight up on the road under Butch Jones and the Red Wolves have been a road favorite just once in his tenure. The Red Wolves shot their metaphorical wad last week and the refractory period will catch up to them this week. Kennesaw State is live to win this game outright. 

Indiana -5 Illinois

Like the Miami and UNLV game, the spread here is very telling. The AP voters rate Illinois as the ninth best team in the country (pardon me while I stifle my laughter). Meanwhile, they rate Indiana nineteenth. Yet, Indiana is laying more than a field goal at home. Go figure. Indiana has actually won four of the past five in this series (and covered in all five), but this is not your typical battle between Illinois and Indiana. Illinois has appeared in the AP Poll in three of the past four seasons, but prior to that had not been ranked since 2011. Surprisingly, Indiana has appeared in the AP Poll in five of the past seven seasons, but there have been extenuating circumstance. The Hoosiers performance in the weird Covid season will go down as one of the biggest one year outliers in college football history. Thanks to that performance, the Hoosiers actually opened the 2021 ranked seventeenth in the preseason AP Poll. For reference, that is three spots higher than they were in this year's preseason AP Poll. That Indiana team finished 2-10 and went winless in the Big 10. A winless Big 10 campaign is unlikely to happen again. Indiana has rolled teams at home under Curt Cignetti, winning ten of their eleven home games by at least ten points. Against FBS teams, they are 7-2 ATS, failing to cover against Michigan last season and Old Dominion this season. Indiana has lost just twice under Cignetti. Those defeats came on the road to Ohio State and Notre Dame last season. If your memory is not great, those were the eventual national champion and national runner up. The only concern I have in this game is the fact that Illinois is an impressive 12-4 ATS as a road underdog under Bret Bielema. However, seven of those twelve covers have come when the Illini were catching double digits. Take the Hoosiers to win by at least a touchdown in this battle of ranked teams. 

Fresno State -2.5 Hawaii

I thought Fresno State could be a sleeper in the Mountain West and through their first four games under new head coach Matt Entz, they have not done anything to suggest otherwise. Well, maybe one thing. The Bulldogs did not look good in their opener, falling to Kansas in blowout fashion. However, since that loss, they have won three in a row against teams of varying quality (mostly bad). They have dominated on the ground, rushing for nearly 800 yards in their past three games while averaging nearly seven yards per rush. Hawaii is also 3-1, but they have been less than impressive against a similar schedule. The Rainbow Warriors have eclipsed 30 points just once on the young season and they are averaging under five yards per play as a team despite not facing any elite defenses. Traveling to the islands is always tough, but Hawaii's homefield advantage is a bit overstated. Hawaii is 14-10 at home under head coach Timmy Chang, but five of those victories have come against FCS opponents. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, so take the Bulldogs to leave Paradise with a relatively easy win. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Yikes. Time to burn the game film from last week. I went a career worst 1-6 to drop the overall record to a repulsive 4-10. The good news is, there is at least almost a full season left to try to get back to respectability. And we are just one 7-0 week away from turning things around. :)   

Last Week: 1-6

Overall: 4-10

Troy +3.5 Memphis

Troy nearly did the unthinkable last week, building a double digit lead at Clemson before wilting in the second half in a loss to the Tigers in Death Valley. College football fans with a good memory (or access to the internet) may remember Troy nearly beat the Clemson team that eventually won the national title in 2016, falling 30-24. The week after losing the tight game to Clemson, the Trojans picked up a non-conference victory against Southern Miss. I think history has a good chance of repeating itself this weekend with Troy picking up another non-conference win, this time against another group of Tigers. Memphis did what they are want to do under Ryan Silverfield last week. They struggled against an inferior opponent on the road, falling behind in the second quarter before pulling away and actually covering the two touchdown spread by shutting out Georgia State in the second half. Despite the victory, the Tigers are still just 6-9 ATS as a road favorite under Silverfield and have lost five of those games outright. Collectively, Memphis is just 11-13 on the road under Silverfield, including 2-11 against teams that finished with winning records. Of course, we don't know how Troy will finish the 2025 season, but the Trojans closed last season by winning three of four (after a 1-7 start) and early returns are promising. I like the Trojans to cover and win outright against a Memphis team that historically has all kinds of problems away from the Liberty Bowl and might be looking ahead to Arkansas next week. 

Delaware +10.5 Connecticut

Another bad thing about Gen Z is they probably have no idea these two teams used to share a conference. The Blue Hens and Huskies were members of the Yankee Conference and Atlantic 10 when they were both FCS teams. Connecticut joined FBS a quarter century ago putting this nascent rivalry on hiatus. But now Delaware is in the big leagues (somewhat) and while it is not their conference opener, it is their first time hosting an FBS opponent as an FBS opponent. They opened their FBS life by beating Delaware State two weeks ago. I think the home dog in this spot for a few reasons. First off, both these teams had misleading box scores in road losses to Power conference opponents last week. Delaware lost by 24 points at Colorado, but the Blue Hens played the Buffaloes even yardage wise (outgained 398 to 396) and averaged slightly more yards per play then Deion's charges (6.00 to 5.69). However, they lost the turnover battle 2-0, missed a short field goal, and turned the ball over on downs twice. And they did all that at altitude (or is it elevation?). Meanwhile, Connecticut nearly upset Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, but were outgained by the Orange in both yardage (461 to 416) and yards per play (5.62 to 5.33). Syracuse turned the ball over twice (once via fumble and once on downs) inside the Connecticut 10-yard line, missed a field goal, and threw an interception. Connecticut had a two score lead in the fourth quarter and eventually lost in overtime. The loss probably took a lot out of the Huskies who were looking for their first regular season victory against a Power conference team since beating Boston College in 2022. Now they must go back out on the road against a team looking for a program defining win against a regional rival. These teams haven't played this century, but this game probably means more to Delaware in their first year of FBS with no bowl game to look forward to. Connecticut can't be as motivated for the game as they were last week at Syracuse. Catching double digits at home, the Blue Hens are the play. 

Georgia -4.5 Tennessee

Under Kirby Smart, Georgia is 8-1 both straight up and ATS against Tennessee, winning the past eight in this series by an average nearly 25 points (all by double digits). Georgia is also 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Smart, despite going off as a double digit favorite 23 times. On the other sideline, Tennessee is 0-4 against Georgia under Josh Heupel, failing to score more than 17 points in any of the four contests and averaging just north of 14 points per game. Do we really expect this year's edition to be any different? The Tennessee offense has looked great against two overmatched opponents, totaling 117 combined points against a depleted Syracuse and East Tennessee State. But Tennessee has been doing that since Heupel got to Knoxville. They have averaged an astounding 53 points per game in their eighteen regular season non-conference games under Heupel. And that has not helped them one bit against the elite Georgia defense. Georgia has looked pedestrian (relatively) in their tune up games against Marshall and Austin Peay, despite winning by a combined 60 points. For a Nick Saban acolyte, Kirby Smart could not be happier. The Bulldogs won easily, but Smart still gets to chastise his team and keep them from eating the metaphorical rat poison. You are getting Georgia at a huge discount in this spot. The Bulldogs have been favored by at least eight points in each of their past eight meetings with the Volunteers. This spread is roughly half that. Georgia will hold the Tennessee offense in check and win by at least a touchdown and possibly double digits. 

Vanderbilt +4.5 South Carolina

I foolishly went against Diego Pavia last week. I will not make that mistake again. As an aside, I watched the 'Any Given Saturday' Netflix documentary a few weeks ago and I will not stand for this Jerry Kill erasure. I know documentarians have to focus on one or two perspectives and I can't blame them for choosing Vanderbilt quarterback Pavia and head coach Clark Lea, but there was not even any mention of Kill as a special consultant or offensive coordinator Tim Beck who came over with Pavia from New Mexico State. The results speak for themselves. Prior to the New Mexico State transplant, Vanderbilt was 9-27 under Lea and he was likely headed for the unemployment line. Since the transplant, Vanderbilt is 9-6 with six victories against Power conference opponents. Their opponent on Saturday, South Carolina, began the season ranked 13th in the preseason AP Poll, but have not looked the part despite a 2-0 start. I know their last game was a bit wonky with the weather delay, but South Carolina was actually outgained by South Carolina State. The Gamecocks trailed 3-0 well into the second quarter before two put return touchdowns by Vicari Swain (three so far on the season) turned the game. If nothing else, hopefully that performance against South Carolina State closed out the absurd LaNorris Sellars Heisman campaign. While watching some games on Friday, I saw Sellars had the second best odds to win the Heisman. I hope no one wasted their money on that ticket. I expect the grind of the SEC to eventually be too much for Vanderbilt. Pavia will probably be nicked up when the calendar turns to November, much like he was last season when the Gamecocks handled Vanderbilt in Nashville. But he is healthy now and the Commodores have been impressive. They did not punt last week against Virginia Tech. That same Hokie defense forced five punts from South Carolina. If Vandy wins this game, they have a real shot at being 5-0 (Georgia State and Utah State up next) before they travel to Alabama on the first Saturday in October. Could the Commodores be in the top ten by then? That might be a bridge too far, but this is a great spot for Vandy. They have those two mid-majors coming up while South Carolina has a trip to Missouri on deck. 

Appalachian State -2.5 Southern Miss

Appalachian State struggled to put away something called Lindenwood last week, winning 20-13 in Boone. However, a closer look at the box score shows the Mountaineers moved the ball consistently (gained over 500 yards and averaged north of seven yards per play), but turned the ball over four times and added a turnover on downs for good measure. They also held Lindenwood to just over 200 yards of total offense. Through two games (against less than stellar competition), the Mountaineers have outgained their opponents by over 600 yards and are nearly doubling them up in yards per play (7.03 to 3.53). They have committed five turnovers, including four lost fumbles, so the start has not been perfect, but I may have to issue a mea culpa after trashing the Dowell Loggains hire. Now the Mountaineers open conference play against a team that was getting a lot of love from folks I respect in the offseason. The Golden Eagles mercifully ended the Will Hall era after last season and stole Charles Huff and many of his players from Marshall. The Golden Eagles were blasted by Mississippi State in the opener and then beat Jackson State in a game marred by a racist social media post prior to the event. Southern Miss has failed to stop the run against both an SEC team and a SWAC team. That does not bode well against an Appalachian State team that has run the ball against the two cupcakes they have faced thus far. Maybe I am giving the Mountaineers too much credit for rolling through Charlotte and Lindenwood without much resistance, but I don't think the market has caught up to how good the Mountaineers might be. Take App on a discount and lay less than a touchdown. 

Tulsa +14.5 Navy

I backed Tulsa last week as a small road favorite and the Golden Hurricane lost outright to New Mexico State. However, Tulsa played better than the final margin. They turned the ball over twice on downs, missed a field goal, and three two interceptions, including one in the endzone. They outgained New Mexico State by nearly 100 yards and more importantly for this game, held the Aggies to 39 yards rushing. Through two games, Tulsa has 18 tackles for loss. Tackles for loss and stuffs are key for slowing down option attacks like Navy's. The Midshipmen have put up 90 combined points in their first two games, but the defense has been leaky. They shut out UAB in the second half last week to pull away from the Blazers, but UAB still moved the ball. They missed a field goal, fumbled inside their own 20, and threw three two interceptions, including one in the endzone in the second half. This is also the most points Navy has been laying on the road since 2019 against Connecticut. That Navy team finished 11-2 while Connecticut finished 2-10. If Tulsa doesn't blow off their metaphorical toes with a shotgun as they did last week, they should be able to keep this one close. 

Texas State +15.5 Arizona State

The general public may have been a year early on Texas State. The Bobcats were the consensus top team in the Sun Belt West last season. They finished 8-5 for the second consecutive season, which was great, especially by the standards of the program since joining FBS, but somewhat disappointing all the same. One of those five losses came to Arizona State in San Marcos, when the Bobcats actually closed as slight home favorites. In fact, the Bobcats were favored in all thirteen of their games last season! If the can manage to knock off the Sun Devils, they could be favored in every other game the remainder of this season as well. The line for the Group of Five CFP bid starts behind South Florida, but two weeks through the season, the Bobcats are a darkhorse threat to become the first CFP participant from the Sun Belt (before leaving for the new Pac-12). Texas State will travel to Tempe to face a wounded Arizona State team. The Sun Devils fell behind 17-0 last week to Mississippi State before taking a late 20-17 lead only to lose it on a long touchdown pass. The loss likely eliminates them from at-large CFP contention meaning their only way back is to win the Big 12. With that in mind, they may be looking past Texas State slightly as the Big 12 Eliminator starts for them next week in Waco. To cover a spread over two touchdowns, Arizona State will need to score a lot of points and generate a lot of big plays. They should be able to effectively move the ball on the ground against a less than stellar Texas State run defense, but quarterback Sam Leavitt has struggled through two games (less than six yards per pass and three interceptions). Texas State is going to be able to score, so even if this game is not organically close, the back door will always be open. Finally, this spread seems way off considering what it was last season. As I mentioned, the Bobcats were a slight favorite in San Marcos. If you give the full three points for home field advantage, last season, Arizona State would have been a four or five point favorite in Tempe. Have these teams combined to move ten points in the opposite direction based on what we have witnessed to far in 2025? Arizona State is clearly worse than they were last year, and while Texas State's early schedule has not been exceptionally tough, they appear to be at least as good as they were last season. This spread is off by about a touchdown. Consider it a gift and take the points.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week II

We went 0-2 in the week night plays, but made up for it with a solid 3-2 showing on Saturday. 3-4 is not too big of a hole to dig out of with thirteen weeks or so to go. Get your shovels ready.   

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 3-4

Iowa +2.5 Iowa State

Matt Campbell has failed at two things at Iowa State: winning a conference title and beating Iowa in Ames. The Cyclones are just 2-6 straight up against Iowa under Campbell and are 0-4 at home. Three of the four losses have come by a touchdown or less and this low number gives you the impression we are in for another tight battle on Saturday. The Cyclones have already banked two wins, edging Kansas State in Ireland and pounding South Dakota in a rough travel spot last week. The Kansas State win lost a little shine when the Wildcats were nearly upset at home by North Dakota and a closer examination of that box score on the Emerald Isle shows some warts. Iowa State was outgained by the Wildcats in both total yardage (383-313) and yards per play (6.72-4.23). Meanwhile Iowa did not exactly cover themselves in glory in a tune up against Albany last week. The final margin (34-7) looked like a typical workmanlike victory the Hawkeye faithful have come to expect under Kirk Ferentz, but transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski completed just north of half his throws and the Hawkeyes passed for less than fifty yards. I thought Gronowski might give the Hawkeyes some CFP upside and be their best quarterback since Brad Banks nearly a quarter century ago. Needless to say, his first outing did not inspire a great deal of confidence. Still, Iowa has beaten Iowa State with worst offenses and Iowa State has not won this rivalry at home since 2011. Take the Hawkeyes to win a low scoring battle and drop Iowa State from the ranks of the unbeaten. 

Duke +2.5 Illinois

The Illini won ten games last season and opened 2025 ranked twelfth in the preseason AP Poll. However, like Stephan Jenkins, they were living a semi-charmed life. Including their bowl victory against South Carolina, they won five times as a betting underdog. They also finished 5-1 in one-possession games. While they do return a copious amount of talent, this was really a six or seven win team in 2024. The preseason hype train is probably moving a little too fast with trouble ahead (and trouble behind). I think said hype train derails on Saturday against a solid Duke team that should probably be favored in this spot. The Blue Devils had a pretty good season themselves in 2024, winning nine games under first year head coach Manny Diaz. They also upgraded at quarterback in the offseason, coaxing Darian Mensah away from Tulane. Mensah led the Green Wave to the AAC Championship Game last season and while it is probably too much to ask for him to do the same in Durham, he should guide the Blue Devils to a fourth consecutive bowl game. Duke has lost three games in Durham since the start of the 2022 season. Those loss have come to North Carolina, Notre Dame, and SMU. Those three teams combined to finish 30-11 with North Carolina and SMU playing in the ACC Championship Game during the respective seasons they beat Duke. Illinois is not in that class. Duke will spring another outright upset at home. 

Fresno State +3.5 Oregon State

Next season, this will be a Pac-12 (or 10 or 8 or you get idea) conference game. For now, it seems like a spot where the wrong team is favored. After a rough opener in Week Zero against Kansas, Fresno State looked like a vintage North Dakota State team in their home opener against Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards at nearly eight per clip against the Eagles. They complimented that rushing attack with a strong defensive showing, holding the Georgia Southern passing attack under 200 yards. Meanwhile, Oregon State got waxed at home by a Cal team that preseason prognosticators rated as one of the worst in the ACC. Obviously, Cal's freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (had to look up the spelling) has made it likely Cal does not finish near the basement of the ACC, but Oregon State also struggled offensively against the Bears. The Beavers were held to 65 yards rushing and only managed to score fifteen points. I think the general talent level at Oregon State has fallen off thanks to the (temporary) dissolution of the Pac-12 and the resulting homelessness suffered by Oregon State as well as the loss of their head coach Jonathan Smith after the 2023 season. The Beavers should not be favored in this spot, much less by more than a field goal. Take the Bulldogs to win outright. 

North Texas -10.5 Western Michigan

I've mentioned it time and again. I hate laying points, especially double digits, and especially on the road. However, it worked out last week as Mississippi State covered their double digit spread against Southern Miss. I think we may be in for an encore in Kalamazoo. The Broncos did not score an offensive touchdown last week against Michigan State, recording a pick six to cover the number against the Spartans. They did allow just 23 points, but I think that is more indicative of the kind of offense Michigan State runs rather than an indication of any defensive prowess at Western Michigan. The Broncos will certainly need all the defense they can muster if they hope to knock off North Texas. The Mean Green play fast and score a lot of points under third year coach Eric Morris. Including last week's game against Lamar, North Texas has scored at least 30 points in fifteen of their 26 games under Morris. However, the reason I feel at least slightly comfortable laying all these points is what might be coalescing on the other side of the ball. The Mean Green hired Skyler Cassity to coordinate their defense in the offseason. Cassity coordinated a solid Group of Five defense at Sam Houston State last season as the Bearkats won ten games in just their second season as an FBS program. If North Texas can become a mediocre Group of Five defense, the Mean Green have a real shot to win the American. I know it was Lamar, but the Mean Green did pitch a shutout last week. For comparison's sake, their FCS opponents in 2023 (Abilene Christian) and 2024 (Stephen F. Austin) scored 31 and 20 points respectively. I think the Mean Green put the hammer down as they move to 2-0. 

Virginia Tech -1.5 Vanderbilt

This might be the tipping point of the Brent Pry era in Blacksburg. 38 games into his tenure, the Hokies are 16-22 and have struggled to win games in August and September (6-9 record). They have closed strong each of the past two seasons to get to 6-6, but their early season struggles have put them behind the proverbial eight ball. 2025 continued that trend as the Hokies committed penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, and gave up a special teams touchdown in a neutral site loss to South Carolina. Still, there were some hints of optimism, particularly on defense. The Hokies held darkhorse Heisman quarterback LaNorris Sellers in check until a late deep ball buoyed his passing numbers. While the offense dropped passes and stagnated in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Hokie defense got stop after stop to keep them in the game. Now they return to Blacksburg to face a team that ruined their season in last year's opener. The Commodores jumped out to a 17-0 lead last season in Nashville, but Virginia Tech clawed back and forced overtime only to lose to an ascendant Vanderbilt team led by their irascible quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has been amazing as a betting underdog, cashing countless tickets first at New Mexico State and more recently with the perennial SEC punching bag. I love Pavia, but I think the Hokies will be ready for him, especially after facing a more gifted mobile quarterback in Sellers. Pavia has been a great bet as a big underdog, but with this spread less than a field goal, a Hokie win almost guarantees they cover this number (famous last words). I was high on Virginia Tech in the offseason and I will not be backing off of them after one uneven performance. 

Tulsa -5.5 New Mexico State

What I'm about to write is not a controversial statement. Coaching matters in sports. New Mexico State is Exhibit A of this phenomenon. Jerry Kill pulled New Mexico State out of a sixty year downturn, guiding the Aggies to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2022 and 2023. The 2023 team was historic in the modern era, beating an SEC team on the road and playing for the conference crown against a team that ended up being the final Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. After Kill stepped down to focus on his health, the Aggies hired Tony Sanchez. Sanchez is a legend in high school football, winning numerous titles at Bishop Gorman. However, his college coaching career can charitably be described as bad. He lost twice as many games as he won over five seasons at UNLV (20-40) and his first New Mexico State team predictably returned to the basement, finishing 3-9 and 2-6 in the weak Conference USA. The beginning of his second season did not inspire a lot of confidence. The Aggies scored 19 points against Bryant (not Kobe or Bear) of the FCS. This was not a fluky result either. New Mexico State averaged under three yards per carry and gained just north of 300 total yards. For reference, Bryant went 2-10 last season and has been a middling at best FCS team since moving up from Division II in the late aughts. Meanwhile, Tulsa laid it to their FCS opponent, beating Abilene Christian 35-7 in Tre Lamb's debut. Abilene Christian made the second round of the FCS playoffs last season and nearly upset Texas Tech in their 2024 opener. I'm always wary laying points on the road, but Tulsa plays in arguably the best Group of Five conference, has the coaching and talent edge, and put together a solid data point in their first game. Back the Golden Hurricane to win this by at least a touchdown and potentially blow the Aggies out. 

San Diego State +1.5 Washington State

Next season this will also be a Pac (insert number here) conference game. For now though, it is another situation where I think the wrong team is favored. Washington State is probably set in the long term, with Jimmy Rogers taking over the program after a successful two season run at South Dakota State. Things don't look great in the short term though. The Cougars needed a late field goal to beat Idaho of the FCS at home last week. Idaho has been a strong FCS team since transitioning down almost a decade ago. However, the Vandals lost their head coach in the offseason to New Mexico and seemed to be in rebuilding mode, at least early in 2025. Then the Vandals went out and held Washington State to three rushing yards. The Cougars can't blame an abundance of sacks on that paltry total either, as Idaho sacked them just once (for a loss of 19 yards). Perhaps the Cougars improve after seeing live action, but the team I really expect to improve is San Diego State. Second year head coach Sean Lewis began his Kent State tenure with a 2-10 record in 2018. His second Kent State team improved by four games and qualified for a bowl. And that was Kent State, a program that is one of the worst in FBS in recent history. San Diego State has a much stronger track record, plays in a brand new stadium in one of the nicest climates in the United States, and is in a much stronger conference than the MAC. His first San Diego State team went just 3-9, but I expect the Aztecs to at least double that win total in 2025. After Saturday night, they will be one third of the way there.