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Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 6-15
Memphis +7.5 Arkansas
This pick should be sponsored by Jimmy John's (or Firehouse, or Jersey Mike's, or even Subway) because it is the ultimate sandwich spot. Last week, Arkansas faced conference rival Ole Miss in a high-scoring hard-fought battle. The Razorbacks ultimately fell in Oxford, dropping their third straight to the Rebels. And next week, the Hogs host the nation's best 0-2 team, Notre Dame. But now, they travel to the Liberty Bowl to face one of the stronger non-power teams in the country. Memphis has been successful under head coach Ryan Silverfield, but they have yet to win the American. In fact, the Tigers have failed to even appear in the American Championship Game. However, the Tigers have managed to beat some power conference teams over the past few seasons. They knocked off Mississippi State at home in 2021 and beat Florida State in Tallahassee last season. They have also beaten Iowa State and West Virginia in bowl games over the past two seasons. Collectively, the Tigers are 4-2 against power conference opponents, including 2-0 at home. Memphis is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog in the regular season under Silverfield, with four outright victories. Meanwhile, Arkansas is not used to laying points on the road under head coach Sam Pittman. Pittman arrived in Fayetteville prior to the 2020 season. In those five plus seasons, the Razorbacks have been road favorites just four times. Those instances came against LSU in 2021, Auburn and Missouri in 2022, and Mississippi State last season. Those four teams combined to finish 19-29 in the regular season. LSU and Missouri were the best of the bunch at 6-6. Memphis will be highly motivated to beat a team in their region from the mighty SEC. Couple that with the sandwich spot for Arkansas and the Tigers are a real threat to win the game outright.
Miami (Ohio) +2.5 UNLV
The spread in this game is very illuminating. An undefeated team is favored by less than a field goal on the road against a. winless team. UNLV may have the worst collection of victories thus far in 2025. The Rebels have beaten Idaho State (FCS), Sam Houston State, and UCLA (fired coach). Those three times have a combined 0-9 record with all of the losses coming by multiple scores except two of the games against UNLV. Idaho State and UCLA both lost to the Rebels in Allegiant Stadium by a touchdown. UNLV has had a week off to bask in the frivolity of their 3-0 start, but that is offset by Miami also coming off a bye. The Redhawks have faced a much more challenging schedule, losing road contests to Big 10 teams (Wisconsin and Rutgers). Under head coach Chuck Martin, the Redhawks typically take their lumps against power conference teams (2-15 straight up record), but they have fared much better against teams on their level. In regular season games, the Redhawks are 61-50 against fellow mid-majors and FCS teams (39-17 in such games since 2019). If these teams swapped schedules, Miami would likely enter this game with an unblemished record while UNLV would most likely be winless. In that scenario, Miami would probably be laying points. UNLV has issues on defense and is due for some regression in the turnover department (forced seven and are +5 through three games). Take the Redhawks to win this one outright.
Northern Illinois +21.5 Mississippi State
After beating Arizona State thanks to a goal line stand and a late touchdown, Mississippi State had a week to read their press clippings before facing a truly awful FCS team in Alcorn State. Steve McNair's alma mater did not put up any fight, losing 63-0 to the Bulldogs and their cowbells. The Bulldogs are halfway through a four game home stand and have Tennessee on deck. The only thing standing between them and and their first 4-0 record since 2014 is Northern Illinois off a bye. What could go wrong? The Huskies don't have the firepower to win this game, but I think they can drag Mississippi State into the muck and make their life hell. Northern Illinois is not a triple option or service academy team, but they play like one. They play at a slow tempo, run the ball, and go for it on fourth down. That introduces more variance and helps them keep the game close against superior opponents. Under head coach Thomas Hammock, the Huskies are just 3-7 straight up on the road against power conference opponents. However, they are 7-3 ATS. If Northern Illinois falls down by multiple scores, they will be in a tough spot. As I mentioned, they cannot throw the ball, so there is almost no hope of them staging an epic comeback. Still, with a week off to prepare and with Tennessee up next for Mississippi State, I think the Huskies can frustrate the Bulldogs and keep this one close.
Temple +23.5 Georgia Tech
Fresh off their home upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech is back in the AP Poll for the second time in as many seasons. Last season, their time as a ranked team was brief. After opening the year with victories against Florida State in Ireland and Georgia State in Atlanta, the Yellow Jackets lost at Syracuse and never reentered the AP Poll. The Yellow Jackets probably won't lose to Temple, although losing as a big home favorite is not something foreign to Georgia Tech under Brent Key. This is a bad spot for Georgia Tech as they have legitimate aspirations to get to the ACC Championship Game. Conference play begins in earnest next week when the Yellow Jackets travel to Wake Forest and its not a stretch to say Georgia Tech may be favored in all their remaining conference games. They may go off as a slight underdog at Duke or NC State, but they will not be a decisive underdog until they close the season with the boys from Athens. With everything in front of them, Georgia Tech has no incentive to run quarterback Haynes King into the ground. Including sacks, King carried the ball an Eddie George esque 25 times last week. He also carried the ball 19 times in their opener against Colorado. Since arriving at Georgia Tech prior to the 2023 season, King has carried the ball an average of 12.5 times against power conference opponents. In an admittedly small sample (four games), he has averaged just four carries per game against Group of Five and FCS opponents. The season is a quarter complete, but there are still nine regular season games remaining and the Yellow Jackets need a healthy King if they are to compete for an ACC title. I expect a conservative game plan that protects King and attempts to mitigate chances for injury. Georgia Tech also plays slow. While they no longer run the flexbone as they did under Paul Johnson, they tend to keep the ball on the ground and chew up the clock. That is great when you are catching points, but is not conducive to covering a large spread. Temple was walloped by Oklahoma last week, but I expect a better performance in Atlanta.
Kennesaw State +6 Arkansas State
Arkansas State nearly upset a Big 12 team for the second time in six seasons. Its alright if you memory-holed the entire 2020 campaign, but the Red Wolves did win at Kansas State in their second game that year. That win did not propel them to big things, as they finished 4-7. It was their first of four consecutive losing seasons that was not broken until last year. After their tight loss to Iowa State, the Red Wolves travel to Kennesaw, Georgia in what most certainly will be a flat spot. Despite their solid showing on the scoreboard last week, Arkansas State was outgained by 70 yards and more than two yards per play by the Cyclones. And speaking of the boys from Ames, I'm not entirely convinced they are even that good. Their three FBS wins have all come by eight points or fewer against Kansas State, Iowa, and the aforementioned Arkansas State. Those three teams have one FBS win combined and it came against Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Kennesaw State got their first win of the Jerry Mack era last week when they beat Merrimack at home. Like Arkansas State, the Owls have also played two power conference opponents. And like Arkansas State, they hung tough in one and got destroyed in the other. Kennesaw State scored 27 points last week against their FCS opponent and I think they can come close to or exceed that number against a porous Arkansas State defense. The Red Wolves have allowed an average of at least 30 points per game over each of the past six seasons and early returns have not been promising. Arkansas State is 5-19 straight up on the road under Butch Jones and the Red Wolves have been a road favorite just once in his tenure. The Red Wolves shot their metaphorical wad last week and the refractory period will catch up to them this week. Kennesaw State is live to win this game outright.
Indiana -5 Illinois
Like the Miami and UNLV game, the spread here is very telling. The AP voters rate Illinois as the ninth best team in the country (pardon me while I stifle my laughter). Meanwhile, they rate Indiana nineteenth. Yet, Indiana is laying more than a field goal at home. Go figure. Indiana has actually won four of the past five in this series (and covered in all five), but this is not your typical battle between Illinois and Indiana. Illinois has appeared in the AP Poll in three of the past four seasons, but prior to that had not been ranked since 2011. Surprisingly, Indiana has appeared in the AP Poll in five of the past seven seasons, but there have been extenuating circumstance. The Hoosiers performance in the weird Covid season will go down as one of the biggest one year outliers in college football history. Thanks to that performance, the Hoosiers actually opened the 2021 ranked seventeenth in the preseason AP Poll. For reference, that is three spots higher than they were in this year's preseason AP Poll. That Indiana team finished 2-10 and went winless in the Big 10. A winless Big 10 campaign is unlikely to happen again. Indiana has rolled teams at home under Curt Cignetti, winning ten of their eleven home games by at least ten points. Against FBS teams, they are 7-2 ATS, failing to cover against Michigan last season and Old Dominion this season. Indiana has lost just twice under Cignetti. Those defeats came on the road to Ohio State and Notre Dame last season. If your memory is not great, those were the eventual national champion and national runner up. The only concern I have in this game is the fact that Illinois is an impressive 12-4 ATS as a road underdog under Bret Bielema. However, seven of those twelve covers have come when the Illini were catching double digits. Take the Hoosiers to win by at least a touchdown in this battle of ranked teams.
Fresno State -2.5 Hawaii
I thought Fresno State could be a sleeper in the Mountain West and through their first four games under new head coach Matt Entz, they have not done anything to suggest otherwise. Well, maybe one thing. The Bulldogs did not look good in their opener, falling to Kansas in blowout fashion. However, since that loss, they have won three in a row against teams of varying quality (mostly bad). They have dominated on the ground, rushing for nearly 800 yards in their past three games while averaging nearly seven yards per rush. Hawaii is also 3-1, but they have been less than impressive against a similar schedule. The Rainbow Warriors have eclipsed 30 points just once on the young season and they are averaging under five yards per play as a team despite not facing any elite defenses. Traveling to the islands is always tough, but Hawaii's homefield advantage is a bit overstated. Hawaii is 14-10 at home under head coach Timmy Chang, but five of those victories have come against FCS opponents. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, so take the Bulldogs to leave Paradise with a relatively easy win.
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