March Madness Intermission: Mountain West Deep Dive

The Mountain West has been a controversial conference among some college basketball fans over the past few seasons. Between 2022 ad 2025, the conference received 18 bids to the NCAA Tournament, including an amazing 6 bids in 2024. As a fan of an ACC school (Wake Forest), I tend to traffic in corners of the internet (twitter, message boards, etc.) with other ACC fans and boy were they not happy with this development. The fact that 12 of these 18 teams lost their first game in the tournament (some in the First Four and some in the Round of 64) was proof to ACC fans that these teams did not belong in the tournament in the first place. To hear an ACC fan tell it, the Mountain West is no better than the SWAC and undeserving of so many bids. As we saw yesterday, Mountain West teams that ended up as double-digit seeds struggled in the first round, going 2-13 in such games since 2011. But at the same time, a Mountain West team played in the national title game three short years ago. I like to make arguments with data and facts. I also like to discern some actionable betting strategies. With that in mind, I decided to do a deep dive on the Mountain West's performance in the NCAA Tournament. The conference formed just over a quarter century ago, when the strongest teams from the WAC broke off and formed their own league. So what's the verdict? Are Mountain West teams an auto fade in the NCAA Tournament because they they are basically a collection of SWAC schools on the west coast or is there value to be had in backing them in certain situations? 

The Mountain West's first season of play was the 1999-2000 season. 2026 marks the 26th NCAA Tournament the conference has participated in. In those 26 seasons, they have been the definition of a mid-major conference. They are a notch below the big boys (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, and formerly Pac-12), but they consistently put multiple teams in the NCAA Tournament. In those 26 tournaments, they have received 70 total bids (2.7 per season) and have received multiple bids in 22 seasons. They were a one bid conference in 2001, 2016, 2017, and 2026. As noted earlier, the most number of bids they received was 6 in 2024. So the conference is pretty good at getting teams into the tournament. How have those teams performed once they got there? 

In the 25 tournaments between 2000 and 2025, the conference received 69 (nice!) bids. Seven of those teams were shipped to Dayton for the First Four to attempt to play their way into the main bracket. Those seven teams did not acquit themselves well in Dayton. 

Colorado State's destruction of Virginia in what was ultimately Tony Bennett's last game as head coach is the Mountain West's only victory in that round. 

Last year, I did a deep dive of Mark Few's NCAA Tournament record as coach of Gonzaga. I put his teams into different tiers based on their NCAA Tournament seed. I am going to do the same thing with the Mountain West. I divided the tiers into how likely a team is to win their first round game. 

With that in mind, let's roll through each tier and see how the Mountain West has performed. We'll start with their performance as heavy first round favorites. 

Only one Mountain West team (San Diego State in 2011) has been a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 2020 team was likely to join them before the tournament was canceled. The 2011 San Diego State team won their first two games before falling to eventual champ Connecticut in the Sweet 16. 

The Mountain West has had a team be a 3 or 4 seed four times in its history. New Mexico lost to Harvard in 2013 as a 3 seed, but the other three teams all won their first round game with two of the three advancing to the Sweet 16. 

Now we're getting somewhere. Ten Mountain West teams have received a 5 or 6 seed. And the results have not been great. More than half of those teams (six) lost in the first round despite having a better seed than their opponent. Three of the four that won in the first round advanced to the Sweet 16 with San Diego State advancing all the way to the title game in 2023. 

This is where the bulk of Mountain West teams have been seeded. 27 of the league's 63 bids into the first round (43%) have been in the 7 to 10 seed range. 7 seeds have done alright, winning four of their six first round games, but 8, 9, and 10 seeds have gone just 7-14 in first round games. The 8, 9, or 10 seeds that won their first round game all lost in the second round. The league has had two seven seeds advance to the Sweet 16 (UNLV in 2007 and Nevada in 2018), but neither made it any further. 

Moderate Mountain West underdogs have not fared well in the first round, with 11 and 12 seeds going a combined 2-15. The victories were more than two decades apart, with Wyoming upsetting Gonzaga as an 11 seed in 2002 and Colorado State beating Memphis as a 12 seed last season. 

Finally, the league has not won a single first round game when given a seed of 13 or 14. The Mountain West has never received a seed lower than 14 in the NCAA Tournament. 

I'm now going to compile all the previous tables into one table summarizing the Mountain West's performance in the NCAA Tournament. 

The results have been less than spectacular. Mountain West teams have lost twice as often as they have won in the round of 64 and only one team (San Diego State in 2023) has won a game in the Sweet 16 or later. On the rare occasions they have been awarded a top 4 seed, the conference has performed up to par. However, when given a moderate seed (5 or 6), they have not been adept at avoiding first round upsets. When given a mediocre seed (7, 8, 9, or 10), they have not performed well in what amounts to toss up first round games. When given a low seed (11, 12, 13, or 14), they have not been able to upend many higher seeds. The Mountain West's reputation as an underachiever in the NCAA Tournament is completely deserved. I would not expect Utah State to advance very far in this year's bracket and would probably be inclined to post significant wagers against them. That being said, I don't think the Mountain West has been undeserving of the bids they have received to the NCAA Tournament. The committee's job is to award the 37 at-large bids to some combination of the best and most deserving teams. Mountain West teams have fit into those criteria. Its not the committee's job to project which teams will do well in the NCAA Tournament and I may have to double-check my math on this, but it seems like at least half the teams that play in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, lose.