I Feel Lucky

After spending a few days in Las Vegas, I thought it would be interesting to look at which BCS football teams were the 'luckiest' and 'unluckiest' last season. To do this, I will examine which teams performed substantially different in conference play based on their expected record from their points scored and allowed. I am only using data in conference games because some blowouts over non-conference cupcakes can distort a team's point differential and prevent us from getting a true view of their abilities. A previous post explains the Pythagorean Theorem in detail (it should be noted that I am using 2.37 as the exponent now instead of 2 as it is more accurate with a smaller sample size of data).

First up, here are the teams that were 'luckiest' last season based on difference in actual and expected conference record, as well as brief commentary on each team.

UCLA went: 6-2, expected record: 3.43-4.57, difference +2.57 wins
UCLA was actually outscored in conference play, but went 4-0 in conference games decided by 4 points or less. They also added a a close 10 point win over Arizona State to their ledger. In their 2 conference losses, they were beaten by 38 (Arizona) and 47 (Southern Cal). Karl Dorrell may have coached one of the worst 10 win teams of all time. With Maurice Drew (early entry) and Drew Olson (graduation) leaving, the 2006 incarnation of the Bruins may fall on hard times.

South Carolina went: 5-3, expected record: 3.54-4.46, difference +1.46 wins
Another team with a winning conference record that was actually outscored in conference play. To be sure, Spurrier's first season was a success, but the Cocks were far from a dominant team. Like UCLA they had a good record in close games (4-1 in conference games decided by 8 points or less) and got thumped twice (by 23 to Alabama and 41 to Auburn). South Carolina was downright lucky in 2005, and any change for the worse in their fortuitiveness could mean the difference in a bowl bid and another losing season. On a side note, if Brad Scott had gotten outcoached by Gary Pinkel like that, he would've been hung in effigy. Why has Spurrier gotten off scott-free?

Oregon went: 7-1, expected: 5.71-2.29, difference + 1.29 wins
The term lucky may not be apropos for Oregon. The Ducks did slip by several teams late in the year (Arizona by 7, Cal by 7, and Washington State by 3), but that was only after quarterback Kellen Clemens was injured and lost for the year in the Arizona game. With Clemens, the Ducks were a legitimate top-10 team, and deserved a BCS bid. Without him, they were top-15, maybe top-20 (remember, they only lost to Oklahoma by 3).

Georgia Tech went: 5-3, expected: 3.76-4.24, difference +1.24 wins
The Jackets were one of the most sporadic teams in college football in 2005, winning at Auburn and Miami, and losing to Utah in their bowl game. Like their predecesors on this list, the Jackets had a good record in close conference games (3-1 in games decided by 7 points or less), and they were also blown out at least once (by 44 to Virginia Tech). Tech has 4 straight seasons of exactly 7 wins and between 5 and 6 losses. Expect more of the same in 2006.

Kansas went: 3-5, expected: 1.86-6.14, difference +1.14 wins
The Jayhakws are anomally on this list. They went only 1-0 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. Their disparity in actual and expected wins stems from two blowouts, one to Colorado (31 points) and one to Texas (52 points). They were relatively competitive in their other losses, and if the defense continues to remain solid could contend for the Big 12 North title next season.

North Carolina went: 4-4, expected: 2.90-5.1, difference +1.10 wins
The Heels went 4-2 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. Their other 2 losses were pretty convincing, but hardly thumpings (18 to Miami and 27 to Virginia Tech). The Heels rough non-conference slate (Wisconsin, Utah, and Louisville) kept them from being bowl eligible where they would made a solid representative.

Northwestern went: 5-3, expected: 3.98-4.02, difference +1.02 wins
As usual, when the 'Cats go bowling, they win a lot of close games. They were 3-1 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. In their other recent bowl years of 2000, 1996, and 1995, the 'Cats were a combined 10-0 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. Northwestern did return to a bowl after their magical 1995 season, but following their luck-induced 1996 and 2000 seasons, they slipped back to 5-7 and 4-7 respectively. Expect a repeat of this backsliding in 2006.

Now here are the Frank Grimes of the BCS conferences, the most unlucky teams of 2005.

Arkansas went: 2-6, expected: 4.11-3.89, difference -2.11 wins
The Hogs were 0-4 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. With returning quarterback Casey Dick and running back Darren McFadden only sophomores, the Hogs could be surprise contenders in the SEC West next year.

Washington State went: 1-7, expected: 2.84-5.16, difference -1.84 wins
The Cougars were 1-5 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. Washington State will be an interesting team to watch next season. They lose 1900 yard rusher Jerome Harrison, but quarterback Alex Brink, who improved as the conference season wore on could have the Cougars on the brink of a bowl bid next season.

Michigan State went: 2-6, expected: 3.80-5.20, difference -1.80 wins
If a season truly can turn on one play, then it happened to Michigan State last season. The blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown by Ohio State turned that game around, and possibly destroyed Michigan State's season. The Spartans were 0-2 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. They whipped Illinois and Indiana, and were whipped by Northwestern and Minnesota. The future for the Spartans, as always, is very cloudy. Always one of the more inconsistent teams, don't expect a truly breakout season, until it happens.

Iowa State went: 4-4, expected: 5.70-2.30, difference -1.70 wins
For the second season in a row, the Cyclones blew their chance at a Big 12 North Division title by losing in their final regular season game. In 2004, it was a 3 point home loss to Missouri. In 2005, it was a 3 point road loss at Kansas. Overall, Iowa State was 0-3 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. After beginning conference play 0-3, the Cyclones reeled off 4 straight double-digit victories and were poised to be the sacrificial lamb for Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. The finale against Kansas ended those hopes, but Iowa State played well in their bowl game (another close loss) against a top-15 TCU team. Iowa State will return their top passer (Bret Meyer), rusher (Stevie Hicks), and receiver (Todd Blythe), so another shot at the Big 12 North is within reach.

Clemson went: 4-4, expected: 5.45-2.55, difference -1.45 wins
The Tigers went 1-4 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. As they are want to do, they got hot at the end of the season, concluding with a 4 game winning streak. Clemson does lose quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, and the road schedule is pretty brutal (BC, Florida State, and Virginia Tech), but if they can win the majority of their home games, they could have a special season.

Tennessee went: 3-5, expected: 4.30-3.70, difference -1.30 wins
Tennessee went from being one of the luckiest teams in 2004 (6-0 in conference games decided by 7 points or less) to one of the unluckiest teams in 2005 (1-3 in conference games decided by 7 points or less). Did they forget how to 'win' close games? Probably not. More than likely, a few bounces that went their way in 2004, went the other way in 2005. The Vols will be back in a bowl game in 2006.

Purdue went: 3-5, expected: 4.22-3.78, difference -1.22 wins
Purdue was 1-2 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. Their disparity between actual and expected record can be explained by the fact that 2 of their conference wins were blowouts, and none of their conference losses was by more than 18 points. Surprisingly, Purdue had 3 players from their 5-6 squad opt for early entry into the NFL draft. Were I a betting man, I'd say Joe Tiller rights the Boiler's ship.

Cal went: 4-4, expected: 5.13-2.87, difference -1.13 wins
Cal went 1-3 in conference games decided by 7 points or less. In their other 4 games, they blew out Washington, Arizona, and Stanford, and were dismantled by Southern Cal. Jeff Tedford's team had a solid season despite losing starting quarterback Nathan Longshore for the entire season in the first game against Sacramento State. They should return to the upper-eschelon of the Pac 10 next season.

The Greatest of All Time

It's good to see the Illinois General Assembly is hard at work.

http://www.wqad.com/Global/story.asp?S=4418956&nav=1sW7

A Closer Look at the Gophers

After looking at the Minnesota Golden Gophers track record of schizo home and road performance the last few years, I decided to delve deeper and determine what facets of their game change so dramatically on the road. To conduct this endeavor, I looked at all 16 of the Gopher's box scores for 2004 and 2005. In this period, the Gophers are 5-3 at home and 2-6 on the road. Just to dispense with the idea that their home schedule has been much easier than their road schedule, here is the combined conference winning percentage of their conference home and road opponents.

Home: 32-32 .500
Road: 36-28 .563

Minnesota has played a slightly tougher road schedule, but it is clear they are much tougher at home. 2 of their home losses include a fluke 4 point loss to Wisconsin in 2005 on a blocked punt and a 2 point loss to a 10-2 Iowa team in 2004. The other loss was a 14 point setback to a top-5 Ohio State team in 2005. On the road, they own a 3 point win over Michigan in 2005 and a 21 shellacking over 4-7 Indiana, but they also lost to a bad Indiana (3-8) in 2004.

Let's start with offense because thats where this team is built. Here are the cummalative offensive data for home and road games the past 2 years.

Home
Rush: 447 attempts for 2416 yards, 5.4 yards per rush
Pass: 105 completions in 182 attempts (57.7%) for 1576 yards, 8.7 yards per pass, 8 interceptions (4.4% interception percentage).

Road
Rush: 299 attempts for 1386 yards, 4.6 yards per rush
Pass: 116 completions in 242 attempts (47.9%) for 1660 yards, 6.9 yards per pass, 6 interceptions (2.5% interception percentage)

The Gophers do what they were built to do, run the ball, at home. They also run the ball reasonably well on the road (with a solid 4.6 average). However, the number of rush attempts should tell us something. On the road, Minnesota falls behind very often and therefore must forego running the ball. They average about 56 rushes per game at home and only 37 per game on the road. Part of the Gopher's road struggles appears to be falling behind and making the running game obsolete. The passing number also jump off the page. At home Gopher's quarterbacks complete a solid 57.7% of their passes. On the road this number drops below 50%. Of course, they still are very careful when they pass, actually throwing fewer total interceptions and having a lower interception percentage on the road. Why is the passing so much worse on the road? One reason could be the quarterbacks have to throw in many obvious passing situations on the road. At home, the running game is still a threat, but after falling behind on the road, the quarterbacks deficiencies are magnified when everyone knows he must pass.

Now for defense.

Home
Rush: 238 attempts for 911 yards, 3.8 yards per rush
Pass: 154 completions in 270 attempts (57%) for 1895 yards, 7 yards per pass, 5 interceptions (1.9% interception percentage).

Road
Rush: 378 attempts for 1786 yards, 4.7 yards per rush
Pass: 159 completions in 271 attempts (58.7%) for 2058 yards, 7.6 yards per pass, 6 interceptions (2.2% interception percentage)

Here the difference in rushing numbers is significant. Minnesota allows almost a yard more per carry on the road versus at home. Confirming our suspicions from the offensive side, the defensive numbers also suggest Minnesota spends much of their road games coming from behind. At home, Minnesota's opponents only average about 30 rushing attempts, but on the road, this number jumps to 47. This means their opponents are ahead and are grinding the clock by running the ball. The passing numbers are pretty consistent for home and road games. However, this is does not mean they are particularlygood. Minnesota allows opposing quarterbacks to complete a reasonable high percentage of their passes (57% at home and 58.7% on the road), and they rarely intercept the ball (1.9 per 100 attempts at home and 2.2 per 100 attempts on the road).

Summing up these results, it appears the passing game is the Gopher's achilles heal. They are not very good at stopping the pass, either at home or on the road. In addition to this, they are extremely poor at forcing turnovers out of the passing game. They have only intercepted 11 passes in 16 conference games the past 2 seasons. Glen Mason's gameplan since he arrived at Minnesota has been to integrate a power running game and solid defense in order to compete in the Big 10. He has half the formula down. Minnesota runs the ball well both at home and on the road. However, the defense consistently fails them on the road and they are forced to abandon the running game. When this happens, they are forced to win games by passing the ball. Their quarterbacks, who appear solid when they have the threat of a running game, are forced to pass more often and are shown to be extremely flawed. Until Mason is able to fix his pass defense, the Minnesota Golden Gophers will be burrowed a notch below the Big 10's elite.

Doppleganger

Despite the fact that my beloved Panthers went down in defeat last night, I can take solace in the fact that they lost to a team coached by notorious mad scientist and evil-doer extraordinaire, Dr. Robotnik. Let's face facts, if he can only be stopped by a super-human blue hedgehog, winning the Lombardi Trophy should be a piece of cake.

Championship Game Previews

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2

AFC

Pittsburgh at Denver
Pittsburgh, the AFC's 6th seed has won two road playoff games to advance to the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos. While Pittsburgh was very impressive in their win at Super Bowl favorite Indianapolis, most feel the Broncos are fortunate to be here thanks to their uneven performance against New England. The Patriots turned the ball over 5 times and played very un-Patriot-like football. But, don't forget what team was on the other side of that field; the team that forced those turnovers. The Broncos have flown under the radar, but after their Week 1 loss to Miami, they have been one of, if not the, top team in the NFL. The Broncos are undefeated at home, and this afternoon they will make their first Super Bowl appearance since John Elway retired.
Winner: Denver

NFC

Carolina at Seattle
One of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL continued their inconsistency last week. The offense played extremely well against the best defense in the NFL, scoring 29 points against the Chicago Bears. However, for all they did offensively to the Bears, the fact that they gave up 21 points to one of the worst offenses in the league has gotten scarcely any mention. That does not bode well going against a top 5 offense in the Seattle Seahawks. Even if Shaun Alexander is held in check, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and the deep receiving corps can lead the team down the field. Bobby Engram, Joe Jurevicius, Darrell Jackson, and DJ Hackett are a formidable if relatively unknown set of receivers. Seattle, like Denver, is also undefeated at home. Around 9:45 EST, the Hawks will clinch their first Super Bowl berth.
Winner: Seattle

Homefield Advantage in the Big 10

Sometime ago, I posted an entry on NCAA teams that played in domes and their collective struggles away from home. I had been meaning to do some more research on the subject, but got sidetracked by other obligations. Since only one dome team (Minnesota) plays in a major conference that has not been radically altered by teams shifting to and from other conferences, I decided to look at the cummulative Big 10 conference record of every team since 2000. I chose only conference records because each team has different non-conference schedules (both in quality and quantity). The sample size of 6 seasons gives us 48 total games (24 home and 24 road) for each team and helps eliminate some of the volatility of a conference season that does not include every opponent. First up, the home record of each Big 10 team since 2000 from best to worst.

1. Iowa 20-4
2. Michigan 20-4
3. Ohio St. 19-5
4. Purdue 17-7
5. Minnesota 14-10
6. Northwestern 14-10
7. Penn St. 14-10
8. Michigan St. 12-12
9. Wisconsin 12-12
10. Illinois 9-15
11. Indiana 8-16

Now the road warriors.

1. Michigan 17-7
2. Ohio St. 16-8
3. Iowa 12-12
4. Wisconsin 12-12
5. Purdue 10-14
6. Northwestern 9-15
7. Penn State 9-15
8. Minnesota 7-17
9. Michigan State 6-18
10. Illinois 5-19
11. Indiana 2-22

Here are the leaders in delta points at home. Delta points are net points. Michigans +348 means they have outscored their home opponents by 348 points (roughly 14.5 per game).

1. Michigan 348
2. Ohio St. 324
3. Iowa 311
4. Penn St. 238
5. Purdue 218
6. Minnesota 165
7. Michigan St. 76
8. Wisconsin 67
9. Northwestern -66
10. Illinois -181
11. Indiana -200

Now the leaders in road delta points.

1. Michigan 145
2. Ohio St. 115
3. Iowa 29
4. Wisconsin -15
5. Purdue -36
6. Penn St. -74
7. Minnesota -189
8. Michigan St. -193
9. Northwestern -218
10. Illinois -379
11. Indiana -487

Next up is a ranking of 'relative homefield advantage' by difference in home/road winning percentage. Iowa has the largest discrepancy in home and road play in this category, winning at an .833 clip at home (20-4) versus .500 on the road (12-12) for a difference of .333.

1. Iowa .333
2. Minnesota .292
3. Purdue .292
4. Indiana .25
5. Michigan St. .25
6. Northwestern .208
7. Penn St. .208
8. Illinois .167
9. Michigan .125
10. Ohio St. .125
11. Wisconsin 0

Some observations. While Iowa has the greatest discrepancy in home and road winning percentage, Minnesota is still a close second, tied with Purdue. The 2 best teams in the conference in the decade of the 2000's Michigan and Ohio State, are nearly as capable of winning on the road as they are of winning at home. Of course, this does not mean they have only a small homefield advantage. On the contrary, it is only relatively smaller because they win so many road contests. I wonder if this fact is true in other conferences, do the elite teams have the smallest relative homefield advantage because they win so often on the road as well? Finally, in a surprising twist, Wisconsin has not enjoyed much of an advantage in Camp Randall Stadium as they have won the same amount of games away from home as well. Wisconsin does not fall into this 'elite' category as they are only 12-12 at home and on the road.

Finally, here is a ranking of 'relative homefield advantage' by difference in delta points at home and on the road. Minnesota has the largest discrepancy in home and road play in this category. They have 165 delta points at home and -189 on the road for a difference of 354 delta points.

1. Minnesota 354
2. Penn St. 312
3. Indiana 287
4. Iowa 282
5. Michigan St. 269
6. Purdue 254
7. Ohio St. 209
8. Michigan 203
9. Illinois 198
10. Northwestern 152
11. Wisconsin 82

From this second set of data, Minnesota has arguably the top discrepancy in home and road play. While Iowa is a respectable 12-12 on the road, they are a remarkable 20-4 at home. Minnesota on the other hand is above average at home (14-10), but quite below average on the road (7-17). Again, Wisconsin does not appear to have enjoyed a significant advantage playing at home in the past 6 years. I plan on looking at other conferences in the near future as well. As usual, any comments and questions are welcome.

Why Kickers Suck: A Sociological Perspective

Kickers, like offensive linemen, usually toil in anonymity until they do something wrong. Most casual observers of football do not notice when a linemen makes a good block, but you can bet they will be all over him when he false starts, holds, or gets beat by a speed rushing defensive end. Kickers get some glory when they make kicks to win championships (Vinatieri) and are vituperated when they have a historic miss (Norwood), but most fans only remember them as 'that little european guy, ya you know he used to kick, what was his name?'

In the old days of the NFL, position players often handled the kicking duties (and many players played offense and defense). George Blanda was an All-Pro quarterback as well as a part-time kicker, punter, and linebacker. Even players who played only offense also played multiple positions. Charley Trippi played halfback (running back) and quarterback. But lo, what hath Adam Smith wrought? In his seminal work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Smith speculated that specialization, or the division of labor, was the dynamic engine of economic progress. The concentration of workers on their singular or limited subtasks should lead to greater skill and greater productivity on their particular subtasks than would be achieved by the same number of workers each carrying out the original broad task. The example Smith used was the manufacturing of pins. However, this theory can easily be expanded to include both more modern manufacturing (Henry Ford's assembly line) and the game of football. When the NFL allowed rosters to expand in the late 1950's, specialization quickly followed. As with most changes, it was slow but steady. By the mid-1970's kickers had become what they are today; specialists who perform come in for 10 or fewer plays per game. Of course, specialization also allowed for other players to focus on one position too. Sometimes specialization is so great that some kickers only kick field goals. Yesterday's hero Mike Vanderjagt, doesn't even kickoff. He just kicks field goals. Specialization allowed linebackers to play linebacker, running backs to play running back, and so on. Of course, some players also play special teams, but the days of 'iron man' or 2-way football is over. Offensive players were also classified into a certain position. Long gone are the days where offensive players spend significant time at several positions. Antwaan Randle-El will occasionally line up in the backfield for Pittsburgh, but this is primarily on trick-plays, and is not a regular routinized occurrence. Since kickers are now specialists and free to practice only one facet of the game, kicking should improve. It has. In 1970, kickers made 59.4% of their field goals and 96.9% of their extra points. In 2004, kickers made 80.8% of their field goals and 99.2% of their extra points. Thats a pretty marked improvement. However, when the fortunes of 53 men come down to one kick by a guy who plays 10 or fewer plays per game, my heart goes out (as much as it possibly can to millionaires playing a game) when he -stoinks- the kick. You have one job. Kick the ball. Yeah, I know its hard. I couldn't do it. But, do you think that blocking lightning-quick 250 pound defensive ends is easy? Or how about reading coverages and throwing pinpoint passes, is that easy? What about covering guys man-to-man downfield all by yourself, is that easy? Football is not an easy game to play at the professional level. If it was, I'd be playing. So when those guys put you in position to win, how about knocking down the kick?

Here's some random games I've noted this season where kickers have brought it real weak:

Week 12: New York Giants at Seattle: Jay Feely missed 3 field goals, a 40 yarder, a 54 yarder, and a 45 yarder that would have won the game for Big Blue.

Week 14: Kansas City at Dallas: Down 3 with 10 seconds left, Trent Green hits Dante Hall for 34 yards and gets it down to the Dallas 24. Kansas City uses their last time out, and Lawrence Tynes -stoinks- a potential game-tying 41 yard field goal.

Houston at Tennessee: Kris Brown misses a a game-tying 31 yard field goal in the final minutes. Worst...miss...ever.

Week 17: Houston at San Francisco: With the game tied at 17, in a meaningless game (except for draft position), Texans kicker Kris Brown does what he does best, missing a 31 yard field goal. The 49ers go on to win in OT.

Divisional Playoffs: Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: The aforementioned Mr. Vanderjagt missed a 46 yard attempt that could have sent the game into OT. And it's not the first time he has screwed things up for Manning. Remember 2000?

These kicking shenanigans are not limited to the NFL by any means. I might have made it all the way through the Orange Bowl if either Penn State of Florida State's kickers had made some field goals. And speaking of Florida State, Bobby Bowden might have about 60 national titles if his kickers could make field goals against Miami. Anyway, to sum things up: you are either paid handsomely, or go to school for free (maybe both if you play for Ohio State) to do one thing and one thing only, so kick the damn ball through the uprights.

Divisonal Round Preview

Last Week: 3-1

AFC

New England at Denver
This game is the perfect fit for prime time Saturday night. It is highly likely that this will be the best game of the weekend and we may see something historic (Tom Brady's first playoff loss). Since their Week 12 loss to Kansas City, the Patriots have played like the Patriots of old, losing only to Miami in a meaningless regular season finale. However, this is the first time in their playoff run that they have had to play on the road in the Divisional Round. They also happen to be playing in one of the toughest environments in the NFL. The cold weather should not bother the Patriots who are used to playing in snow in early January, but the altitude should serve as a significant advantage for the Broncos. Even without the thin air, the Broncos are a formidable team. Since their opening day shocker to Miami, the Broncos have lost twice, at the New York Giants by a single point, and at the Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points. Don't buy into the New England playoff mystique and aura. As Curt Schilling famously opined, "Mystique and Aura are dancers at a club." Go with the home team.
Winner: Denver

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
For the Steelers to win this game, Ben Roethlisberger will have to air it out. The Colts will be bringing an extra man to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Roethlisberger will have to make them pay with deep throws in order to make the Colts defense ease up on the run. Of course, the Steelers must also hinder the Colts offense when they have the ball. Much easier said than done. Edgerrin James, who was slowing down as the season wore on (56 carries for 159 yards, a 2.8 yards per rush average in his last 3 games) has had 2 weeks off to rest up for the playoff run. The receivers are healthy, the Colts are playing at home, and lest we forget, the Colts have the best quarterback in the NFL, Peyton Manning. Don't be fooled by the 'he's not a playoff/clutch quarterback' talk. Remember, people said the same thing about Barry Bonds not being a 'postseason hitter' before the 2002 playoffs. A few bad games early in his career have sullied Manning's reputation, but he'll start to change some minds this week.
Winner: Indianapolis

NFC

Washington at Seattle
Of all the games on the board this week, this one is a mortal lock. If Washington wins this game, go ahead and enshrine Joe Gibbs in the Hall of Fame. Oh, nevermind. But seriously, Seattle is rested, Washington is hurting (Clinton Portis, Mark Brunell, Renaldo Wynn, Shawn Springs, Chris Samuels are all injured, though all but Wynn and Springs will play), and the 'Hawks are playing at home. Seattle hasn't won a playoff game in 21 years, but that will all change tomorrow afternoon.
Winner: Seattle

Carolina at Chicago
My dad's thoughts on the game per an email I received earlier in the week:

The latest forecast for Chicago on Sunday is partly cloundy and a high of42. That's more like Charlotte weather than Chicago. Bad news Bears. Carolina will shut down the run. Bad news Bears. The game will be in the hands of Rex Grossman. Bad news Bears. Jake Delhomme's QB rating for 5 playoff games is 104. Bad news Bears. Carolina has outscored its last 2opponents 67 - 11, both on the road. I'd say they're hitting theirstride. Bad news Bears.

Well, he's convinced me. If any road team is going to win this week, it will be the Panthers. This will be a defensive struggle that Carolina will win in the end thanks to their superior field goal kicking.
Winner: Carolina

Baseball Hall of Fame Voting

The Baseball Hall of Fame voting has always perturbed me just a tad. It seems to me that these so called 'experts' have no idea why teams win and lose. For some reason, if a starting pitcher fails to win 300 games, he's gotta go through Hell to make it into Cooperstown. These writers also hold grudges against guys who may have been surly or aloof in the locker room. The Hall of Fame is not designed to be a place for athletes who gave great interviews. It is a place to honor the very best who played the game of baseball. That being said, the voters screwed up big time yesterday. Here's the complete voting rundown. As you probably already know, Bruce Sutter was the only player elected. While I am happy that a full time reliever has finally been elected (they have been ignored for far too long), the voters didn't even elect the best relief pitcher. By any metric you care to use, Rich 'Goose' Gossage is a better choice than Bruce Sutter.

Conventional Stats

Bruce Sutter 1042.3 innings pitched, 2.83 ERA, 861 strikeouts (7.4 per nine innings), 68 wins, 71 losses, 300 saves, 40+ saves once, 30+ saves 4 times, 20+ saves 9 times

Rich Gossage 1809.3 innings pitched, 3.01 ERA, 1502 strikeouts (7.5 per nine innings), 124 wins, 107 losses, 310 saves, 30+ saves twice, 20+ saves 10 times

By conventional stats, Gossage has more innings, more wins, a better winning percentage, and more saves. Sutter has a better ERA, and more 40+ and 30+ save seasons.

Esoteric 'Nerd' Stats
each stat is highlighted, click to read a brief synopsis of what they measure
WARP1, WARP3, Win Shares, PRAA, PRAR, ERA+

Bruce Sutter 54.5 WARP1, 55.2 WARP3, 168 Win Shares, 168 PRAA, 507 PRAR, 136 ERA+

Rich Gossage 83.8 WARP1, 84.0 WARP3, 223 Win Shares, 252 PRAA, 787 PRAR, 126 ERA +

When adjusting for season or all time, Gossage is worth about 30 more wins more than a 'replacement level' player is than Sutter. A replacement level player is the theoretical contribution of a marginal major league player. He saved his teams about 70 more runs than Sutter did over an average player and 280 more runs than Sutter over a replacement player. Sutter did have a better ERA (36% better than league average versus 26% for Gossage), but this is more than offset by the gap in innings pitched (767 more career innings for Gossage). Bruce Sutter was a fine reliever, and is a marginal Hall of Fame choice (there are certainly lesser candidates in Cooperstown-- Lloyd Waner, Dave Bancroft, and George Kelly to name a few), but if a full time reliever was to be elected this year, it should have been Rich Gossage.

Blog Poll Final Edition

1. Texas (13-0)-- Win over Southern Cal swung on two 4th downs. The one LenDale White didn't get, and the one Vince Young did. (LW 1)
2. Southern Cal (12-1)-- Rose Bowl did live up to the hype. (LW 2)
3. Penn State (11-1)-- I didn't make it all the way through the Orange Bowl. (LW 3)
4. Ohio State (10-2)-- Rolled over Notre Dame's pourous D. (LW 5)
5. Virginia Tech (11-2)-- Obviously, this rating does not take character into account. (LW 8)
6. Louisiana State (11-2)-- Waxed Miami in the Peach Bowl. (LW 10)
7. Alabama (10-2)-- Defense held Texas Tech to 1 touchdown. (LW 11)
8. West Virginia (11-1)-- Fake punt a great call by Rich Rodriguez. (LW 12)
9. Miami (9-3)-- Don't read too much into the blowout to LSU. The 'Canes will still be around next year. (LW 4)
10. Georgia (10-3)-- Probably a better team than West Virginia, but turnovers did them in. (LW 7)
11. TCU (11-1)-- Nice win over Iowa State. (LW 14)
12. Oregon (10-2)-- Tough loss to Oklahoma, but definitely a top 10 team with Kellen Clemens. (LW 9)
13. Wisconsin (10-3)-- Nice way to end things for Barry Alvarez. (LW 18)
14. Auburn (9-3)-- Came out flat against Wisconsin. (LW 6)
15. Oklahoma (8-4)-- Welcome back. (LW 21)
16. Notre Dame (9-3)-- Didn't deserve the BCS bid. (LW 11)
17. Florida (9-3)-- Offense will be clicking next year. (LW 19)
18. Louisville (9-3)-- Played Virginia Tech tough in the Gator Bowl. (LW 15)
19. Boston College (9-3)-- Almost blew the game to Boise. (LW 22)
20. UCLA (10-2)-- Not that impressed by the win over Northwestern. (LW 17)
21. Clemson (8-4)-- Curb your enthusiasm. The win over the Buffs was not that impressive. (LW 24)
22. Florida State (8-5)-- Good showing versus Penn State. (LW NR)
23. Texas Tech (9-3)-- Offense didn't do a thing in the Cotton Bowl. (LW 20)
24. Navy (8-4)-- Paul Johnson, one of the finest coaches in the country. (LW NR)
25. California (8-4)-- Pretty much picking teams at random at this point. (LW NR)

Wildcard Weekend Preview

Last Week: 11-5
Regular Season: 171-83

AFC

Jacksonville at New England
The Jaguars are probably the most lightly regarded 12-4 team in NFL history. Most lines I have seen for this game have them as a 7 to 7.5 point underdog to the defending champs. Although Jacksonville benefited from an easy schedule that included the 49ers, Browns, Cardinals, Jets, Ravens, Texans (*2), and Titans (*2), they also own victories over the NFC's top team (Seattle), the AFC North champs (Cincinnati), their fellow AFC Wildcard brethren (Pittsburgh), and close losses to Indianapolis. However, that won't be enough. Byron Leftwich will be starting for the first time in almost 2 months and the New England front seven will harrass him all night and prevent him from exploiting their weak secondary. Plus the game is in Foxboro. If it was in sunny, mild Jacksonville they may have a shot. Some analysts will make the claim after the game that inexperience doomed the Jaguars. That won't be true. The cold Massachusetts winter will doom the Jags. Although most conventional wisdom is wrong, the fact that dome and warm weather teams struggle outdoors in northern cities in the winter is absolutely true. Read this.
Winner: New England

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Bengals are limping into the playoffs for the first time since the elder Bush was in office. They have lost 2 straight including an embarrassing home loss to the Buffalo Bills (their only road win of the year). The Bengals defense is predicated on getting turnovers; they lead the league with 31 interceptions. However, since the midpoint of the season, the defense has been steadily declining. Over their first 8 games the Bengals allowed 15.6 points per game. Over their final 8 games the Bengals have allowed 28.1 points per game. Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, and TJ Houshmandzadeh will score some points on the Pittsburgh defense, but unless the Bengals emphatically win the turnover battle, their playoff trip will be a short one. Again some analysts will claim that lack of experience doomed the Bengals. That won't be true. Lack of a defense will prevent the Bengals from advancing.
Winner: Pittsburgh

NFC

Washington at Tampa Bay
This is how small the margin of error for NFL teams is. If Mike Alstott had been stopped on Tampa's 2 point try in Week 10 (or correctly ruled not to have gotten in), the Redskins would be the number 2 seed and resting at home this weekend. Tampa would have been the 6th seed and likely traveled to do battle with Chicago. As it stands now, Washington is hotter than a $2 pistol heading into the playoffs and the Bucs are NFC South champs. Don't let last weeks showing against New Orleans fool you. These aren't the 2002 Bucs. Their defense is good, but it is not in the same stratosphere as the 2002 version. Remember, they were blanked 28-0 by New England just 3 short weeks ago. Washington on the other hand, went a remarkable 10-2 against NFC teams this season and 0-4 against the AFC West. The 'Skins get a little revenge for earlier contest and Joe Gibbs wins his firt playoff game since 1992.
Winner: Washington

Carolina at New York Giants
As much as I want to go with my boys this weekend, I just can't rationalize them leaving the Meadowlands with a win. The Panthers did go 6-2 on the road, but the only team with a winning record they defeated was Tampa Bay. Since the Falcons defense isn't suiting up for New York, the running game will not be able to muster much running room. On the flip side, I also don't see Tiki Barber lighting up our defense for huge gains. This game will be low scoring and the outcome will hinge on whichever team makes a mistake. Considering erratic passers Jake Delhomme and Eli Manning are starting, I should say whichever team makes fewer mistakes. The Giants are 8-1 at home this season. The only game they lost occurred beacuse the Vikings returned a kickoff, punt, and an interception for a touchdown. If the Panthers get that hat trick, they will win.
Winner: New York Giants

The Predictive Powers of Bowl Game Blowouts: Can Momentum Really Last 9 Months?

College football may be the sport with the most passionate fans. And nothing gets those fans more fired up than a lopsided bowl win over a good opponent. But, how telling is a blowout bowl win when prospecting forward? To answer this question, I looked at bowl games after the 2002, 2003, and 2004 regular seasons. Any BCS team that beat another BCS team by 20 or more points was considered to have blown their opponent out. I then looked at their record the following year to determine if the good will generated by their bowl blowout had any effect on the following season.

2002
There were 8 bowl games that fit the BCS blowout criteria:

Texas Tech over Clemson 55-15 in the Tangerine Bowl
Pittsburgh over Oregon State 38-13 in the Insight Bowl
Virginia over West Virginia 48-22 in the Tire Bowl
Wake Forest over Oregon 38-17 in the Seattle Bowl
Maryland over Tennessee 30-3 in the Peach Bowl
NC State over Notre Dame 28-6 in the Gator Bowl
Oklahoma over Washington State 34-14 in the Rose Bowl
Southern Cal over Iowa 38-17 in the Orange Bowl

In the 2002 season, these 8 blowout winners had a combined record of 79-30, good for a .725 winning percentage. The following season, these teams had a combined record of 71-33, good for a .683 winning percentage. Of the 8 teams, only 1, Southern Cal improved the following year. They went from 11-2 in 2002 to 12-1 and national champions in 2003. 3 teams declined, NC State from 11-3 in 2002 to 8-5 in 2003, Wake Forest from 7-6 in 2002 to 5-7 in 2003, and Pittsburgh from 9-4 in 2002 to 8-5 in 2003. Oklahoma finished 12-2 in both 2002 and 2003. Texas Tech, Virginia, and Maryland all declined by 1/2 a game (Texas Tech and Virginia from 9-5 in 2002 to 8-5 in 2003 and Maryland from 11-3 in 2002 to 10-3 in 2003), but that is particially because they played 1 fewer game the following season.

2003
There were 3 bowl games that fit the BCS blowout criteria:

NC State over Kansas 56-26 in the Tangerine Bowl
Iowa over Florida 37-17 in the Outback Bowl
Maryland over West Virginia 47-7 in the Gator Bowl

In the 2003 season these 3 blowout winners had a combined record of 28-11, good for a .718 winning percentage. The following season these teams had a combined record of 20-14, good for a .588 winning percentage. Iowa improved the following year. They went 10-3 in 2003 and improved slightly to 10-2 in 2004. NC State declined from 8-5 in 2003 to 5-6 in 2004. Maryland had a similar fall from 10-3 in 2003 to 5-6 and no bowl in 2004.

2004
There were 4 bowl games that fit the BCS blowout criteria:

Georgia Tech over Syracuse 51-14 in the Champs Sports Bowl
Ohio State over Oklahoma State 33-7 in the Alamo Bowl
Tennessee over Texas A&M 38-7 in the Cotton Bowl
Southern Cal over Oklahoma 55-19 in the Orange Bowl

In the 2004 season these 4 blowout winners had a combined record of 38-12, good for a .760 winning percentage. In 2005, these 4 teams had a combined record of 34-14, good for a .708 winning percentage. Ohio State improved from 8-4 in 2004 to 10-2 and Fiesta Bowl champs in 2005. Tennessee declined from 10-3 in 2004 to 5-6 this season. Georgia Tech finished 7-5 in both 2004 and 2005. Southern Cal finished 13-0 in 2004 and 12-1 this season, a small decline considering they played for the national title.

Of the 15 teams in this study that romped over other BCS teams in their bowl games, only 3 improved the following year. 6 declined and 6 had the same record (pretty much) the following year.

What about the flip side of the blowout coin? Nothing can kill morale faster than a cross country drive to see the ole alma mater followed by a 3 and 1/2 hour long massacre. Now lets examine the what happens to teams after being routed in their bowl games.

2002
In the 2002 season, these 8 bowl losers had a combined record of 70-34, good for a .673 winning percentage. The next season, they had a combined record of 68-35, for a winning percentage of .660. 3 teams improved the following season. Clemson went from 7-6 in 2002 to 9-4 in 2003. Oregon went from 7-6 in 2002 to 8-5 in 2003. Tennessee went from 8-5 in 2002 to 10-3 in 2003. 3 teams declined. West Virginia went from 9-4 in 2002 to 8-5 in 2003. Notre Dame went from 10-3 in 2002 to 5-7 and out of the bowl picture in 2003. Iowa went from 11-2 in 2002 to 10-3 in 2003. 2 teams posted the exact same record the following season. Oregon State went 8-5 both years and Washington State went 10-3 both years.

2003
In the 2003 season, the 3 bowl losers had a combined record of 22-17, good for a .564 winning percentage. The next season, they combined for a 19-16 record, good for a .543 winning percentage. Neither of the 3 teams improved. Kansas declined from 6-7 in 2003 to 4-7 in 2004. Florida and West Virginia had relatively similar records. West Virginia went 8-5 in 2003 and 8-4 in 2004. Florida went 8-5 in 2003 and 7-5 in 2004.

2004
In the 2004 season, the 4 bowl losers had a combined record of 32-17, good for a .653 winning percentage. The next season, they combined for an 18-27 record, good for a .400 winning percentage. All 4 teams declined. Syracuse went from 6-6 in 2004 to 1-10 this past season. Oklahoma State went from 7-5 in 2004 to 4-7 this past season. Texas A&M went from 7-5 in 2004 to 5-6 in 2005. Oklahoma went from 12-1 in 2004 to 8-4 this past season.

Of the 15 teams in this study that were routed in their bolw games, only 3 improved the following year. 8 declined and 4 posted the same or similar records the following year.

So what can we learn from this endeavor? For starters, a huge bowl win over a BCS opponent does not neccesarily portend a breakthrough season the next year. Several possible reasons exist for this. The loss of key senior contributors. For example, the 2003 NC State team that finished 8-5, lost star quarterback Philip Rivers and finished 5-6 th next year. Luck is another factor. Many people do not realize just how much of an impact random chance has in determining the outcome of a single football game. A fumble that bounced a fortuitous way or an interception that was dropped all influence the outcome of an individual game. Teams that win a lot of close games one year don't necessarily continue to do it the next year. In 2004, Tennessee finished 10-3 and was 5-1 in games decided by 7 points or less. In 2005, they finsihed 5-6 and were only 3-3 in such games. Perhaps even the plexiglass principle is a reason for this decline. Additionally, if a BCS team is blown out in their bowl game by another BCS team, they are more likely to decline than if they had blown the other team out. However, they appear to be just as likely to improve as their victorious brethren. The teams that decline drastically the next season seem to fit into several distinct categories. Fire/lose their coach (Syracuse and Oklahoma State in 2004). Lose a ton of talent to the NFL (Oklahoma in 2004). Extremely lucky (Notre Dame in 2002). Probably shouldn't be in a bowl anyway (Kansas 2003). In the 2005 bowl season, the only game that fits this criteria is the Peach Bowl. LSU handled Miami 40-3. LSU fans should not be printing those 2006 national champions or 2006 SEC champions T-shirts just yet if history is any indication. Similarly, Miami fans should not be hanging Larry Coker in effigy either. Miami certainly does not fit into any of the 4 previous categories for blowout losers, so a precipitous decline is unlikely.

A Fortnite of Football Frenzy and Fun Part IV

Record Thus Far: 16-10

January 3rd

Orange Bowl
Florida State Vs. Penn St.
Theme Song: 'Holding Back the Years' by Simply Red
2 old guys doing their thing in South Florida. When you think about it, its not really that unusual. This appears to be a real mismatch with 10-1 Penn State only one play away from an undefeated season and 8-4 Florida State only one game away (the win over VT) from playing in the Champs Sports Bowl. Get excited.
Winner: Penn State

January 4th

Rose Bowl
Southern Cal Vs. Texas
Theme Song: 'Please Don't Go' by KC and the Sunshine Band
Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Vince Young-- all Jrs who may bolt to the pros after this game.
Winner: Texas

NFL Week Seventeen Pigskin Pickin'

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 160-78

Denver at San Diego
Winner: San Diego

New York Giants at Oakland
Winner: New York Giants

Arizona at Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis

Carolina at Atlanta
Winner: Atlanta

Cincinnati at Kansas City
Winner: Kansas City

Buffalo at New York Jets
Winner: Buffalo

Detroit at Pittsburgh
Winner: Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Cleveland
Winner: Cleveland

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Winner: Tampa Bay

Seattle at Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay

Miami at New England
Winner: New England

Houston at San Francisco
Winner: San Francisco

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Winner: Jacksonville

Chicago at Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota

Washington at Philadelphia
Winner: Washington

St. Louis at Dallas
Winner: Dallas

A Fortnite of Football Frenzy and Fun Part III

Part I Record: 5-2
Part II Record: 3-1 with 2 to go

December 30th

Music City Bowl
Minnesota Vs. Virginia
Theme Song: 'Do That to Me One More Time' by The Captain and Tennille
For the 3rd time in 4 years the Golden Gophers will be playing in the prestigious Music City Bowl. The Gophers are undefeated in their previous 2 trips to Nashville, having beaten Arkansas in 2002 and Alabama last season. Laurence Maroney and Co. will run wild over the Wahoos.
Winner: Minnesota

Sun Bowl
Northwestern Vs. UCLA
Theme Song: 'Wild, Wild West' by The Escape Club
The Sun Bowl is shaping up to be an old-fashioned shootout. Both teams have very prolific offenses. UCLA ranks 7th nationally in scoring offense averaging 38.1 points per game while Northwestern ranks 32nd nationally in the same category with 31.8 points per game. Both teams are also horrendous on the defensive side of the ball. Northwestern ranks 102nd nationally in scoring defense allowing an average of 32.5 points per game and UCLA ranks 107th in the same category allowing 33.8 points per game. Get excited.
Winner: UCLA

Independence Bowl
Missouri Vs. South Carolina
Theme Song: 'Magic' by Olivia Newton-John
What else but the dark arts can explain South Carolina's sudden resurgence? Even with the OBC on board, many expected a year of growing pains as the offense adjusted to Spurrier's Cock N' Fire from Lou Holtz's Run-it-up-the-Gut. The Carolina offense has not been explosive, but The Cocks have kept games close and won most of these close games. Expect more of the same here.
Winner: South Carolina

Peach Bowl
Louisiana State Vs. Miami
Theme Song: 'Good Thing' by Fine Young Cannibals
This Peach Bowl certainly is a good thing. A match-up of 2 teams that could very well have won their respective conferences. However, without Jamarcus Russell at quarterback for LSU, the Hurricanes will blow through these Tigers.
Winner: Miami

December 31st

Meineke Car Care Bowl
NC State Vs. South Florida
Theme Song: 'You Keep Me Hangin' On' by Kim Wilde
When Chuck Amato came to Raleigh in 2000, he was supposed to raise the Wolfpack to a new level. He was to transform them from a mid-level BCS team to a conference title contender. Has he done that? Here's a quick comparison with his predecessor Mike O'Cain through both coaches first 6 seasons at NC State.

Amato's won/loss record: 45-28 .616
O'Cain's won/loss record: 35-34 .507
Amato's ACC won/loss record: 23-25
O'Cain's ACC won/loss record: 23-25
Amato's best conference record: 5-3
O'Cain's best conference record: 6-2
Year's above .500 in conference play for Amato: 1
Year's above .500 in conference play for O'Cain: 2
Draw your own conclusions.
Winner: NC State

Liberty Bowl
Fresno State Vs. Tulsa
Theme Song: 'Blame It On the Rain' by Milli Vanilli
In honor of the biggest frauds in music history, this song goes out to the biggest frauds in college football this season. They made us all believe with close losses on the road to Oregon and Southern Cal, but then the tape stopped and they lost to Nevada and Lowsyana Tech.
Winner: Fresno State

Houston Bowl
Iowa State Vs. Texas Christian
Theme Song: 'The Way It Is' by Bruce Hornsby and The Range
You go 10-1 overall and undefeated in conference play, and yet you're stuck playing in Houston on New Year's Eve? That's just the way it is if you don't play in one of the BCS conferences.
Winner: Texas Christian

January 2nd

Outback Bowl
Florida Vs. Iowa
Theme Song: 'Got My Mind Set On You' by George Harrison
This is what the Gators administration was humming last year at this time. Well, they got their man. Now they're stuck with him. His first season was not a rousing success, but it wasn't a real disappointment either. As has been discussed previously, Meyer's teams perform much better under his system in his second season. They'll get an early start against Iowa.
Winner: Florida

Cotton Bowl
Alabama Vs. Texas Tech
Theme Song: 'The Tide Is High' by Blondie
Self-explanatory.
Winner: Alabama

Gator Bowl
Louisville Vs. Virginia Tech
Theme Song: 'I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For' by U2
Frank Beamer is still seeking that elusive national championship, the only thing missing from his resume at Virginia Tech. Louisville is still searching for some national respectand recognition. After being blown out by South Florida and collapsing against West Virginia, the Ville faded from the national conscious. After this game, both will still be looking.
Winner: Virginia Tech

Capital One Bowl
Auburn Vs. Wisconsin
Theme Song: 'Physical' by Olivia Newton-John
Both teams will be very physical in this game. Auburn ranks 20th nationally in rushing yards per game and Wisconsin is 41st. Establishing the run is key to the success of both teams. Here's to you Mr. Alvarez, you've done a fine job at Wisconsin.
Winner: Auburn

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame Vs. Ohio State
Theme Song: 'We Are the World' by USA for Africa
A little ditty for the University of Football in America according to Tony Kornheiser that is more full of itself than Rick Rude. Go 9-2 against a tissue-soft schedule and you get into the BCS. Don't have any conference affiliation, have your own TV network, and give your coach an extension after 7 games on what he could possibly do next year. Here's hoping the Buckeyes curb-stomp the Irish.
Winner: Ohio State

Sugar Bowl
Georgia Vs. West Virginia
Theme Song: 'Didn't We Almost Have It All?' by Whitney Houston
A 1-point loss to Auburn and an injury to DJ Shockley are all that stands between the Dawgs and a possible undefeated season. West Virginia will keep this closer than most of the experts believe.
Winner: Georgia

Part IV will be up Tuesday.

A Fortnite of Football Frenzy and Fun Part II

Part I Record: 4-2 with one more to go

December 27th

Champs Sports Bowl
Clemson Vs. Colorado
Theme Song: 'Don't You Want Me?' by The Human League
This 1982 tale of unrequitted love hits home for both the Tigers and Buffs. Tommy Bowden has taken his fair share of criticism at Clemson even though he has returned the program to a permanent bowl fixture and beaten Florida State twice in the last 3 years. In Boulder, Gary Barnett must be thinking the same thing. After leading the Buffs to 4 Big 12 North titles in 5 years, he was let go by the administration after the 70-3 loss to Texas in this year's Big 12 title game.
Winner: Clemson

Insight Bowl
Arizona State Vs. Rutgers
Theme Song: 'Celebration' by Kool & the Gang
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights, easily one of the worst programs in Division I football history, are off to only their 2nd ever bowl game. Who cares if they are double-digit dogs to a team playing what amounts to a home game in Phoenix? Almost any place in the country beats the hell out of New Jersey in late December.
Winner: Arizona State

December 28th

MPC Computers Bowl
Boise State Vs. Boston College
Theme Song: 'Let's Hear it for the Boy' by Deniece Williams
3 cheers for Dan Hawkins as he coaches his final game on the blue smurf turn in Boise before departing for Colorado. In his 5 seasons at the school, Hawkins has a record of 53-10 with 2 bowl wins and 4 WAC titles. Not only does he win, but his teams usually score a ton of points and are exciting to watch. Here's wishing him the best at Colorado.
Winner: Boston College

Alamo Bowl
Michigan Vs. Nebraska
Theme Song: 'Out of Touch' by Daryl Hall and John Oates
This Hall and Oates ditty is perfect for 2 programs out of touch with their past glories. For Michigan the 2005 season was out of touch with what most fans expected. 3 losses in the first 6 games doomed the Wolverines to a non-New Year's Day bowl for the firts time since reconstruction. For the Huskers, they have been out of touch since Frank Solich was let go. 2004 marked the first time they had not played in a bowl game since dinosaurs roamed the Earth. They have returned to the postseason in 2005, albeit on a stage much smaller than the one they are accustomed to.
Winner: Michigan

December 29th

Emerald Bowl
Georgia Tech Vs. Utah
Theme Song: '(Just Like) Starting Over' by John Lennon
For the Utes, the loss of wunder-coach Urban Meyer and 1st overall pick Alex Smith meant a time of starting over. The Utes were able to have a successful season, but after destroying a BCS team in primetime last season in the Fiesta Bowl, a mid-afternoon showdown against a team coached by Chan Gailey is a testament to how much farther they must still go.
Winner: Georgia Tech

Holiday Bowl
Oklahoma Vs. Oregon
Theme Song: 'Don't You (Forget About Me)' by Simple Minds
Everyone wrote them off after a 2-3 start, but the Sooners won 5 out of their last 6 (with the one loss resulting from a series of bad officiating against Texas Tech) to gain some momentum heading into their bowl game. 40-5 is the combined record of the 4 teams that beat the Sooners this year. The Ducks have had a nice 10-1 season, but Oklahoma will announce their return to the national scene in this game.
Winner: Oklahoma

Part III coming soon.

NFL Week Sixteen Pigskin Pickin'

Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 150-72

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Winner: Tampa Bay

Buffalo at Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati

Dallas at Carolina
Winner: Carolina

San Diego at Kansas City
Winner: Kansas City

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Winner: Cleveland

Jacksonville at Houston
Winner: Jacksonville

New York Giants at Washington
Winner: Washington

Tennessee at Miami
Winner: Miami

Detroit at New Orleans
Winner: New Orleans

San Francisco at St. Louis
Winner: St. Louis

Philadelphia at Arizona
Winner: Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Seattle
Winner: Seattle

Oakland at Denver
Winner: Denver

Chicago at Green Bay
Winner: Chicago

Minnesota at Baltimore: Be wary when dome teams must brave the elements.
Winner: Baltimore

New England at New York Jets
Winner: New England

Merry Christmas

A Fortnite of Football Frenzy and Fun Part I

Alliteration has always held a special place in my heart. The 1980's are also near and dear to my soul. So without further adieu, I present Part I of my bowl preview. The theme, which I hope you will enjoy, is #1 pop hits from the 1980's.

December 20th

New Orleans Bowl
Arkansas State Vs. Southern Mississippi
Theme Song: 'Satisfied' by Richard Marx
This Richard Marx classic from 1989 is a perfect set-up for the first game of the bowl season. Arkansas State is satisfied that some other team besides North Texas is playing in the New Orleans Bowl. Since the Sun Belt football conference formed in 2001, the Mean Green have run roughshod over their Sun Belt brethren to the tune of 4 straight conference titles and 4 New Orleans Bowl berths. That all changed this season as Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Louisiana-Lafayette all shared the conference crown. Southern Mississippi, which is located in Hattiesburg, is satisfied to be the only team from the great state of Mississippi to be bowling this season. In all seriousness, Jeff Bower has done a tremendous job since taking over the Golden Eagles in 1990. He has lead them to 8 bowl games in the last 9 years and has not had a losing season since 1993.
Winner: Southern Mississippi

December 21st

GMAC Bowl
Toldeo Vs. UTEP
Theme Song: 'One More Try' by George Michael
This George Michael classic is what UTEP fans must be saying to Mike Price every time they see him. After being fired and embarrassed before he ever coached a game at Alabama, Price, like Marty Robbins, landed on his feet in the West Texas town of El Paso. In the 2 years Mike Price has coached the team, the Miners have won 16 games. In the previous 5 years before Price's arrival, the Miners had won 19 games. Here's hoping Mike Price gives it at least one more try for the UTEP Miners. As far as the game is concerned, Toledo is no pushover. The Miners better dig in, or they might get the shaft.
Winner: UTEP

December 22nd

Poinsettia Bowl
Colorado State Vs. Navy
Theme Song: 'Against All Odds (Take a Look at Me Now) by Phil Collins
Many people probably thought Paul Johnson had lost his mind when he became the head coach of the Naval Academy in 2002. Johnson was coming from division I-AA power Georgia Southern, where he had won 2 national titles in 5 seasons (and played for a 3rd). His first season at Navy went as most people had expected. That is to say a 2-10 season, and what looked like a nigh-impossible rebuilding job ahead. But in 2003, the Academy won 8 games and played in a bowl for the first time since 1997. In 2004, they did even better, winning 10 games. Included among those 10 wins was a bowl victory over New Mexico. This season, the Academy is 7-4 and stands a good chance to defeat Colorado State for its second consecutive bowl win. Paul Johnson won't win any national titles at Navy, but he should be included in any conversation about the best current football coaches.
Winner: Navy

Las Vegas Bowl
California Vs. Brigham Young
Theme Song: 'Could've Been' by Tiffany
The Bears had high hopes when the season began. Those dreams were shattered when quarterback Nathan Longshore was lost for the season in the first game against Sacramento State. Without him, the Bears struggled through a 7-4 season. If Longshore had not gotten hurt, who knows what could have been?
Winner: California

December 23rd

Fort Worth Bowl
Houston Vs. Kansas
Theme Song: 'Caribbean Queen (No More Love on the Run)' by Billy Ocean
This is a cop-out. I couldn't come up with a good 80's #1 hit for this game. The Jayhawks have a good rush defense, 3rd nationally in terms of yards allowed per game (88.1 yards per game), so they are showing no more love to the run.
Winner: Kansas

December 24th

Hawaii Bowl
Central Florida Vs. Nevada
Theme Song: 'Escape (The Pina Colada Song) by Rupert Holmes
The Golden Knights from Central Florida lost their conference title game to Tulsa and were punished by being forced to take a trip to Hawaii. Sometimes life is not fair. I wish them the best in this tragic development. What better place to escape to than the islands?
Winner: Central Florida

December 26th
Motor City Bowl
Akron Vs. Memphis
Theme Song: 'Like a Virgin' by Madonna
This is Akron's first bowl game. In celebration of this fact, here is some gratuitous footage of Madonna writhing around on stage at the MTV video awards in 1984. Enjoy.
Winner: Memphis

I'll be back in a few days with Part II.

NFL Week Fifteen Pigskin Pickin'

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 137-69

Tampa Bay at New England
Winner: New England

Kansas City at New York Giants
Winner: Kansas City

Denver at Buffalo
Winner: Denver

Arizona at Houston
Winner: Arizona

Seattle at Tennessee
Winner: Seattle

San Diego at Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis

Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Winner: Pittsburgh

New York Jets at Miami
Winner: Miami

Philadelphia at St. Louis
Winner: Philadelphia

San Francisco at Jacksonville
Winner: Jacksonville

Carolina at New Orleans
Winner: Carolina

Cincinnati at Detroit
Winner: Cincinnati

Cleveland at Oakland
Winner: Cleveland

Dallas at Washington
Winner: Washington

Atlanta at Chicago
Winner: Chicago

Green Bay at Baltimore
Winner: Baltimore

Bush League

With a record of 1-12, the Houston Texans are currently the frontrunner for the top pick in next spring's NFL Draft. Conventional wisdom says they should draft Reggie Bush, a running back from Southern Cal, whom many believe to be a once-a-generation talent. Could one player possibly make that much of a difference? In order to answer that question lets first take a look at the #1 picks of the last 10 drafts and the top running back picks of the last 10 drafts, followed by a comparison of the two players with whom Bush is most frequently compared; Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders.

1996
#1 pick: Keyshawn Johnson, Wide Receiver, drafted by the New York Jets
Keyshawn had a solid rookie season catching 63 passes for 844 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, the Jets actually regressed from 3-13 in 1995 to 1-15 in 1996. Keyshawn would prove to be a vital piece of the best Jets team of the last 20 years; the 1998 incarnation. However, that Jets team also had the services of a rejuvenated Vinny Testaverde, the 2nd ranked defense (in terms of points allowed), and a Hall-of-Fame coach. Throughout his career, Keyshawn has been a steady above-average receiver, who has at times clashed with his coaches.
#1 running back: Lawrence Phillips, drafted by the St. Louis Rams 6th overall
The troubled Lawrence Phillips played just one and a half seasons for the Rams and averaged only 3.3 yards per carry in 1996 and 3.5 per carry in 1997. An absolute bust, Phillips played just 3 seasons in the NFL and played no part in the Rams becoming a great team in 1999.

1997
#1 pick: Orlando Pace, Offensive Tackle, drafted by the St. Louis Rams
Pace has played a pivotal role in the Rams rise from doormat to dynamo. However, it didn't happen overnight. In 1997, the Rams finished 5-11, and in 1998 they finished 4-12. It wasn't until they added Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt in 1999 that the offense spiked.
#1 running back: Warrick Dunn, drafted by the Tampa Bay Bucs 12th overall
Dunn's arrival coincided with the Bucs late 90's rise from obscurity. However, although he enjoyed several solid seasons in Tampa, it was the earlier drafts of defensive players
John Lynch, Warren Sapp, and Derrick Brooks that formed the foundation for the Bucs improvement.

1998
#1 pick: Peyton Manning, Quarterback, drafted by the Indianapolis Colts
A definite keeper. Contrary to what some talking heads will have you believe, Peyton is the best quarterback in the league. He struggled some his first year throwing 28 interceptions, but the Colts have been in the top 5 in points scored in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Manning has made 5 (soon to be 6) Pro Bowls in that span.
#1 running back: Curtis Enis, drafted by the Chicago Bears 5th overall
The epitome of a bust. Enis lasted 3 seasons and rushed for only 1497 yards in his career.

1999
#1 pick: Tim Couch, Quarterback, drafted by the Cleveland Browns
Even though all top picks are drafted by bad teams, Couch had the misfortune of being drafted by an expansion team. After seeing the previous 2 expansion franchises take the league by storm in their first seasons, the NFL made sure it wouldn't happen again. Couch was surrounded by poor talent his first few seasons in Cleveland, but in his 4th season the Browns made the playoffs. However, it was Kelly Holcomb who put up better stats and started the teams playoff game. Couch would play one more inconsistent season in Cleveland and is presently out of football.
#1 running back: Edgerrin James, drafted by the Indianapolis Colts 4th overall
James is a bona-fide Hall-of-Fame candidate who along with Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison has made the Colts a dynamic offensive team for the better part of 7 seasons.

2000:
#1 pick: Courtney Brown, Defensive End, drafted by the Cleveland Browns
Another Browns draft pick gone awry. Brown accumulated only 17 sacks in his 5 seasons in Cleveland.

#1 running back: Jamal Lewis, drafted by the Baltimore Ravens 5th overall
Lewis rushed for over 1000 yards in his rookie year when the Ravens won the Super Bowl. However, the strength of that Ravens team was its defense which was historically great. This is not to diminish anything Lewis has done, as he would rush for over 2000 yards in 2003, but he is clearly on the downhill slope of his career. Lewis has rushed for only 638 yards with only a 3.1 average per attempt. When running bakcs go, they go quickly. This should serve as a warning to whichever team happens to draft Reggie Bush not to oveuse him. Lewis is only 26 and is likely finished as a productive runner.

2001
#1 pick: Michael Vick, Quarterback, drafted by the Atlanta Falcons
Vick is one of the most controversial players to rate in NFL history. As a starting quarterback, he has a very gaudy winning percentage, and he is a great runner. However, excluding 2002, his passing has been subpar. Still, he is young (25), has a large upside, and his versatility makes him difficult to defend.
#1 running back: LaDainian Tomlinson, drafted by the San Diego Chargers 5th overall
Tomlinson has been widely regarded as one of the league's best backs since he started playing. I'm not going to dispute that claim. However, the Chargers did not start winning consistently until their quarterback situation improved.

2002
#1 pick: David Carr, Quarterback, drafted by the Houston Texans
Much like Tim Couch, Carr was drafted by an expansion team. With no line to protect him, Carr has been hit more often than a bong at a Cheech and Chong double feature. Carr has talent and their is some offensive talent (Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis) around him. With more blocking, Carr could perhaps develop into a solid NFL quarterback.
#1 running back: William Green, drafted by the Cleveland Browns 16th overall
Another Cleveland Brown bust. Green has never topped the 887 yards he rushed for in his rookie campaign, and his career yards per carry average is a feeble 3.7.

2003
#1 pick: Carson Palmer, Quarterback, drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals
It seems as though the Bangals have hit a homerun with this pick. Teaming with 3 members of the Bengals 2001 draft class (Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, and TJ Houshmandzadeh), Palmer is having a Pro Bowl season and helping the Bengals on their march to the playoffs.

#1 running back: Willis McGahee, drafted by the Buffalo Bills 23rd overall
McGahee had a decent rookie campaign rushing for over 1000 yards with a 4.0 yards per carry average. He has regressed somewhat this year to 3.8 yards per carry, but has again gone over 1000 yards. Two solid but unspectacular seasons for a great college back. It should be noted that McGahee did blow out his knee 4 months before he was drafted in the Fiesta Bowl.

2004
#1 pick: Eli Manning, Quarterback, drafted by the San Diego Chargers
Manning had one of the worst rookie years imaginable, but has turned things around somewhat in his 2nd year. Although Eli will get a lion's share of credit for the Giants' improvment this season, it is the defense that has carried the Giants.

#1 running back: Steven Jackson, drafted by the St. Louis Rams 24th overall
Marshall Faulk's replacement has performed admirably this season running for over 900 yards and catching 40 passes. If Marc Bulger had played the entire season, his numbers would probably be better since teams would have to focus more on the passing game.

2005
#1 pick: Alex Smith, Quarterback, drafted by the San Francisco 49ers
Smith has sucked to put it mildly. A big goose egg in the touchdown column, 9 interceptions, and a pathetic 4.8 yards per pass attempt highlight Smith's rookie season.

#1 running back: Ronnie Brown, drafted by the Miami Dolphins 2nd overall
Brown has had a very good rookie campaing. Currently he has 841 rushing yards and a 4.5 yards per carry average. Nick Saban appears to have this team headed in the right direction, and Brown could play an integral role on the next Dolphins' playoff team.

Of all the #1 overall picks, there have been 2 busts (Couch and Brown), 2 potential Hall-of-Famers (Manning and Pace), 1 Pro Bowl caliber player (Johnson), 2 above average players (Vick and Johnson) and 3 who the jury is still out on (Carr, Manning, and Smith). My money is on Carr and Manning being average and Smith being a bust. Of all the top drafted running backs, there have been 3 busts (Phillips, Enis, and Green), 2 potential Hall-of-Famers (James and Tomlinson), 2 Pro Bowl caliber player (Dunn and Lewis), and 3 who the jury is still out on (McGahee, Jackson, and Brown). I think Jackson is the best of the lot. Interpret the numbers as you wish, but realize that there is a very real chance that the top pick or top running back drafted has a substantial chance of being a bust.

Now let's compare Bush to Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders. Sayers was a silky smooth runner who averaged 5 yards per carry over his career for the Chicago Bears. However, his career only last for 5 seasons from 1965-1969. From 1970-1971, he played in only 4 games because of injury. However, in the 5 seasons he did play, he was electrifying. He rushed foe over 1000 yards twice (in 14 game seasons) and averaged over 5 yards per rush in every year but 1967. For all his rushing exploits, his teams were never anything better than mediocre. Here's the year-by-year record for Sayers 5 year peak.

1965: 9-5
1966: 5-7-2
1967: 7-6-1
1968: 7-7
1969: 1-13

The Bears never made the playoffs in Sayers' 5 peak seasons. If you're curious, they didn't make it in the 2 years when he was hurt either.

Barry Sanders was another smooth runner who had the potential of going the distance every time he touched the ball. Sanders rushed for over 1000 yards in each of his 10 seasons and average 5 yards per carry over his career with the Detroit Lions. Here's the Lions record for Sanders' 10 year career.

1989: 7-9
1990: 6-10
1991: 12-4
1992: 5-11
1993: 10-6
1994: 9-7
1995: 10-6
1996: 5-11
1997: 9-7
1998: 5-11

The Lions made the playoffs in 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995. However, aside from 1991 when they reached the NFC Championship game, they never won a playoff game.

What does this tell us? Even a player with the talent of Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders does not guarantee success for a team if they are surrounded with second-rate talent.

What then should the Texans do? They should trade down from the #1 spot and acquire more draft picks. The Texans need to improve both offensively and defensively. They are 28th in points per game and 30th in points allowed per game. Additionally, one of their best players is a running back. No matter how talented Reggie Bush is, would he be a substantial upgrade over Domanick Davis? Not in my opinion. If the Texans draft Reggie Bush, it would be like taking a beat up Pinto with $1000 rims and replacing them with $1500 rims. It's still a Pinto. End of story. The Texans should trade down and rebuild their offense in the trenches; along the offensive line.