The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

We were oh so close to three consecutive winning weeks, but couldn't quite get there. We'll try and begin another streak this week.    

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 18-24

Louisiana-Lafayette +17.5 James Madison

The Ragin' Cajuns are not good and James Madison is probably either the best or second best team in the Sun Belt. However, both participants in this game are run heavy, so there should be a dearth of possessions, more variance, and less time for James Madison to get margin. Louisiana-Lafayette has run the ball on 58% of their plays from scrimmage in 2025 despite a 2-3 record where they have trailed for a majority of the season. They have also averaged a healthy six yards per carry. Meanwhile, James Madison is even more run heavy, keeping the ball on the ground on 64% of their offensive plays. The Dukes passing game has not gotten on track, with the team averaging under six yards per pass. In addition, the Dukes may be looking ahead to next week's clash with Old Dominion that will likely decide the Sun Belt East. Louisiana-Lafayette has also been great as a road underdog under Michael Desormeaux. The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 ATS as when catching points in conference play away from Lafayette. Running teams and a running clock make the Ragin' Cajuns the play. 

Maryland +6.5 Nebraska

Maryland was this close to being a sleeper Big 10 team at the midway point of the regular season. The Terrapins led Washington 20-0 in the second half, but surrendered 24 straight points to fall to the Huskies and end their perfect start to 2025. With no time to mourn the loss of their perfect record, the Terrapins welcome another middle class Big 10 team to College Park. Nebraska also has but one blemish on their record in 2025. The Cornhuskers lost to Michigan a few weeks ago, but otherwise have been perfect. However, this tilt in mid-October represents their first true road game of the year! A quick perusal through college football schedules tells me that Missouri is the only other FBS team not to play on the road this season. At least Nebraska has played a neutral site game. Missouri does not leave the friendly confines of Faurot Field until next week. This is only the third time Nebraska has been a road favorite under Matt Rhule. The Cornhuskers are 1-1 both ATS and straight up in their previous forays as a road favorite. Their win and cover came against 1-11 Purdue last season for what its worth. I don't think this Nebraska team should be laying nearly a touchdown on the road against almost any Big 10 opponent. Their victory on the scoreboard looked impressive against Michigan State last week, but a blocked punt and a muffed kickoff provided the winning margin. If Maryland can avoid last week's loss beating them twice, I think they have a great shot at upsetting the Cornhuskers at home. 

Virginia Tech +14.5 Georgia Tech

I was wrong about Brent Key. I thought their success at the end of 2022 once he was named the interim coach was due to randomness and I believed they settled for the former player who rallied the troops after Geoff Collins was fired. But Key has brought competency to Atlanta. Notice I said competency. The Yellow Jackets are a solid ACC team, but they are not the thirteenth best team in the country as the AP Poll might have you believe. The Yellow Jackets tend to play up or down to their level of competition. That is a function of the offense they run. That offense involves a lot of runs (many by quarterback Haynes King) and a constantly moving clock. This results in fewer possessions and more variance. Hence, Georgia Tech is great as an underdog and bad as a favorite. They have been especially bad as big favorites. Georgia Tech has been favored by double digits against an FBS opponent four times under Key. They are 1-3 ATS, having lost one game outright and eking out another in overtime. This is the second most points they have ever been favored by against a power conference team. They were favored by fifteen and a half in their last game at Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets won that game in overtime, but if not for some questionable officiating would already have a loss on their ledger. Virginia Tech is playing out the string under an interim coach, but the defense has played well since Brent Pry was fired. Their past three opponents have netted just 149 yards rushing. One of the opponents was an FCS team, but their two league opponents in that span averaged under two and a half yards per carry. The Virginia Tech offense is still an enigma (or bad) with quarterback Kyron Drones playing with the consistency of a true freshman despite recently making a colonoscopy appointment. If Drones just plays an average game (i.e., not too many mistakes), the Virginia Tech defense should do enough to keep them in this game. 

Ball State +9.5 Western Michigan

The Cardinals and Broncos combined to finish 7-9 in MAC play last season and not much was expected of them heading into 2025. The preseason consensus had them both finishing in the bottom half of the conference. However, through three combined conference games, neither has suffered a loss. In addition, each has beaten a team expected to appear in the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan knocked off Toledo a few weeks ago, and then last week, Ball State upset defending MAC champ, Ohio. Western Michigan has allowed just 16 total points in their first two MAC games, but they are probably due for some regression the rest of the way. Toledo and Massachusetts combined for eight red zone trips against the Broncos, but managed just three field goals in those trips. Holding opponents to such an incredibly low red zone conversion rate is unlikely to continue over their final six league games. As for Ball State, the Cardinals have hit their stride after struggling in their first two games against power conference opponents. The Cardinals scored three total points in road trips at Purdue and Auburn, but have won two of three with a good running game and complimentary passing attack. Ball State prefers to run, with 64% of their offensive plays coming on the ground. That should keep the clock moving, limit possessions, and allow them to keep this one close against a team that has averaged just over 14 points per game against FBS opposition. 

Southern Cal -2.5 Michigan

Plenty of ink has been spilled and key strokes punched on Southern Cal's struggles away from home under Lincoln Riley, particularly on their trips to the east coast. The Trojans are 0-4 both ATS and straight up on Big 10 road trips to the central or eastern time zone since joining the league before last season. All the losses have been close, including last season's upset defeat at Michigan. The Trojans have two more trips east this season (Nebraska and Notre Dame), but this week, they will be in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium, where they have played well, even during last season's disappointing 7-6 campaign. The only teams to beat them at home last season both made the semifinals of the College Football Playoff (Notre Dame and Penn State). In fact, the Trojans were 4-0 ATS as a home favorite last season and are 13-7 ATS in the role under Riley. This is also the smallest home favorite they have been under Riley (previous low was as a four point favorite in 2022 against Notre Dame). I have been skeptical of Michigan all season, so I see no reason not to fade them on the road against a quality opponent that is coming off a bye. Southern Cal still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but with road trips to Notre Dame and Oregon remaining on the schedule, they must beat Michigan to maintain any illusion hope for a CFP bid. Take the Trojans to cover this small number against a team making a cross country road trip. 

South Carolina +8.5 LSU

The Tigers and Gamecocks both began the season ranked in the top thirteen of the AP Poll. In this new era of college football, that means they were both expected to be in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. However, if South Carolina loses this game, their CFP aspirations will be finished and an LSU loss would put their hopes on life support. Both teams also entered the season with likely NFL draft picks taking snaps either under center or in the shotgun. But both have struggled through the first third of the season. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads an offense that has not topped twenty points in their three games versus power conference opponents. Meanwhile, South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has thrown a good deep ball (averages over ten yards per pass), but has taken too many sacks and has missed time with a concussion. Sellers injury occurred a month ago and he has played in the past two games, so he should be fully healthy on this trip to Death Valley. South Carolina's defense has slipped a little from last season, but they should be able to keep the Gamecocks within striking distance against an LSU offense that is fundamentally broken. 

New Mexico +16.5 Boise State

Its been feast or famine for Boise State through five games in 2025. In their three wins, the Broncos have averaged a robust 49 points per game. In their two losses, they have scored fourteen combined points. A lot of that is due to strength of schedule. Their two losses have come to teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (South Florida and Notre Dame), while their victories have come against teams with a combined two FBS wins (Eastern Washington, Air Force, and Appalachian State). Despite their name brand recognition and bid to the College Football Playoff last season, Boise State's hopes to crash the party are likely nil. If they win out, they will be 10-2 with no (likely) ranked wins and two non-competitive losses. I think its fair to question how motivated they will be to run through their next seven Mountain West opponents. The first of those seven is a frisky New Mexico team led by first year head coach Jason Eck. Eck came to Albuquerque after a successful three year run at Idaho and has the Lobos at 3-2 (the same record as Boise) with respectable road losses to Michigan and San Jose State. Eck brought his quarterback from Idaho (Jack Layne) with him and the offense has remained strong despite the loss of last year's starting quarterback, Devon Dampier. The defense has also improved and is on pace to allow fewer than thirty points per game for the first time in three seasons. After spending the better part of a decade at the bottom of the Mountain West, the Lobos have become middle class over the past two seasons and with the imminent departure of some of the stronger programs in the conference, could be poised for bigger things over the coming seasons. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. I would be shocked if New Mexico won this game outright, but this is not a vintage Boise State squad, so the Lobos should hang around for four quarters. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Back to back winning weeks. Are things coming together? The overall record is still poor, but much better than it was two weeks ago. There are some real ugly dogs in this week's post, so stay away if you don't have a strong stomach.   

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 15-20

Colorado State +5.5 San Diego State

San Diego State has had a weird start to the 2025 season. Not bad or good, just weird. They have won three games which equals their win total from last season, but the results have been all over the place. They have recorded two shutout wins during which they have scored 72 total points, with one coming against an FCS team and the other an ACC team that is otherwise unbeaten. They also won an ugly 6-3 game against a MAC school and in their only loss allowed 36 points to a team that has not scored more than 24 points in any other game this season. Insert shoulder shrug emoji here. Now they open conference play against a team set to join them in whatever they are calling the new Pac-12 next year. Colorado State is just 1-3 through the first third of the season, with their lone win coming against an FCS opponent. However, they have played a strong power conference team (Washington), a solid Group of Five team (UTSA), and a future Pac-whatever team (Washington State). The loss to UTSA came by a single point and in their loss to Washington State, they scored only three points despite multiple drives that ended in Washington State territory. They failed on fourth down three times, including once inside the Cougar ten yard line. They fumbled inside the Cougar twenty yard line. Plus they also missed two field goals. Turnovers, fourth down failures, and missed kicks contribute significantly to the outcome of one game, but are not very useful for predicting what will happen next. San Diego State has scored four offensive touchdowns in their three games against FBS opponents. That is not a recipe for covering spreads as a favorite unless the Aztecs are counting on some defensive or special teams touchdowns. I think this game ends up like a classic 1970s NFL game. Not necessarily in style of play, but in final score. A final of 17-14, 20-17, or 21-17 seems quite likely. Take the undervalued dog against the overvalued favorite. 

Ball State +14.5 Ohio

The Mike Uremovich era began rather inauspiciously at Ball State. The Cardinals lost their first two games (against power conference teams) by a combined score of 73-3 and generated under 300 total yards combined. However, since the schedule has eased up, the Cardinals have scored 34 and 25 respectively against a solid FCS team (New Hampshire) and  mid-level non-power FBS team (Connecticut). The Cardinals also rang up over 400 yards of offense in each game. They were especially strong on the ground, rolling up nearly 500 combined yards rushing after being held to negative rushing yards by Auburn. Now the Cardinals open MAC play off a bye against a team that is potentially the league's best. In a rugged non-conference slate, the defending MAC champs went 1-2 against a trio of power conference teams (beat West Virginia). In their non-conference finale, they beat an FCS team (Gardner-Webb) and then opened MAC play with a two touchdown victory against Bowling Green. The Bobcats have the best quarterback in the MAC (Parker Navarro), but their run defense has been suspect. In the past two weeks, Gardner-Webb and Bowling Green have each rushed for nearly 200 yards against the Bobcats at over five yards per carry. That plays right into the hands of a big underdog. Expect Ball State to keep the ball on the ground and chew up the clock against Ohio. As previously mentioned, the Cardinals are also off a bye, while Ohio is playing a game for the sixth consecutive week. Catching double digits at home, the Cardinals are the play.  

Wisconsin +17.5 Michigan

I like the Badgers in this spot for a couple of reasons. For starters, they have played good run defense through the first quarter of the season. Opponents are averaging just over two yards per carry and while that includes two games against Miami of Ohio and Middle Tennessee, it also includes their showings against Alabama and Maryland. Alabama rushed for 72 yards on 22 carries against the Badgers which represents the high water mark their defense has permitted in both yardage and yards per carry (3.27). Their pass defense has been another story (allowed over eight yards per pass), but that is skewed by Alabama's evisceration of their secondary. Michigan still has a (relatively) unproven freshman quarterback and will attempt to win this game on the ground. They romped through Nebraska in their last game, averaging over eight yards per carry and have rushed for over 1000 yards through their first four games. I think they will meet some resistance against the Badgers and be forced into more passing situations than they are comfortable with. Second, this spread is an historical outlier in this series. The Badgers and Wolverines have played twelve times since 2005 and Wisconsin has actually been favored seven times, including each of the past three meetings. Michigan has not been close to this big a favorite since they were favored by thirteen points in 2006. Finally, Wisconsin is coming off a bye after two consecutive horrendous performances. With four teams currently ranked in the AP Poll left on their schedule, not to mention games against Iowa, Washington, and Minnesota, Wisconsin is probably going to finish 4-8 or worse. However, with the bye week to reset, I expect a spirited effort on Saturday. The only issue I have with taking the Badgers is the dual questions of how do they and how much can they score? Outside of Middle Tennessee, Wisconsin has not scored more than seventeen points in any game this season. Still, with both teams deferring to the running game, the clock should be consistently running, so if they can score ten points, they should cover this number. 

Massachusetts +13.5 Western Michigan

So its come to this? We are backing the Minutemen of Massachusetts. I understand if you don't have the stomach to take a winless team that somehow lost to Bryant (not Kobe or Paul Bear). But hear me out. Since losing to Bryant, the Minutemen have played Iowa and Missouri, and not particularly well, I might add. But what can we really tell from those games? Massachusetts is totally outclassed by those Big 10 and SEC teams. Now they get to face a team in their own weight class, at home no less. And rest assured, Western Michigan is in their weight class. The Broncos have won their past two games and thanks to their inexplicable win against Toledo are tied for first in the MAC. Despite scoring 47 points last week against Rhode Island, the Broncos have yet to eclipse five yards per play in any game this season. Their victory against Toledo says more about the Rockets and their volatility in MAC play (look at Jason Candle's record as a favorite) than it does about Western Michigan's quality. The Broncos have been a road favorite four previous times under Lance Taylor. They are 2-2 ATS in those games, but the covers have come in games where they were a one and three point favorite respectively. In the other games where they were favored by seven and ten points, they lost one outright and won the other by three. I'm not sure if the Minutemen can notch their first MAC win since 2015 (don't worry, they were out of the league for a decade and are not riding an eighty game losing skid), but they will cover this ridiculously high number. 

Louisiana-Monroe +11.5 Northwestern

Last week I faded Northwestern when they were a decent sized home favorite against UCLA. The Wildcats stormed out to a 17-0 lead in the first half, but did not score again and had to hold on for dear life against the Bruins. The Wildcats have one of the worst passing games of all power conference teams. Quarterback Preston Stone, who threw 28 touchdown passes two seasons ago for SMU, has thrown exactly one touchdown pass in three games against FBS opponents (versus six interceptions). The Wildcats have scored three, fourteen, and seventeen points against FBS competition. The optimist might point out those point totals have been steadily increasing and expect continued improvement. They might be right. Sort of. It would not shock me if Northwestern scores or even eclipses twenty points on Saturday. However, I would not expect them to score much more than that. The oddsmakers and betting market don't either. The total in this game is forty and a half implying the Wildcats are expected to score around 25 points. That seems a little sanguine to me. Louisiana-Monroe plays like you want a double digit underdog to play. They have run the ball nearly 64% of the time in 2025 and they have done so quite well. The Warhawks are averaging nearly six yards per carry, and that total includes their low output against Alabama. The Warhawks will not be nearly as overmatched against the Wildcats. Northwestern has allowed over five yards per carry on the season and that includes their game against one of the worst teams in FCS (Western Illinois). The Wildcats have a road trip at Penn State next week, but they better not look past a Louisiana-Monroe team that is capable of pulling the outright upset in Evanston. 

Michigan State +11.5 Nebraska

Nebraska has been a big favorite numerous times over the past few seasons. However, most of those instances have come against teams outside the power conferences. Since Scott Frost's arrival in 2018 and continuing through the Matt Rhule era, the Cornhuskers have been double digit favorites against power conference teams just six times (all Big 10 opponents). They are a respectable 3-3 ATS in such games, but the covers have come against Illinois in 2018 (4-8 record), Northwestern in 2021 (3-9), and Purdue last season (1-11). Against more respectable opponents (Illinois in 2019 and 2020 and Northwestern in 2023), the Cornhuskers have failed to cover and have even lost outright. Michigan State will not be participating in the College Football Playoff this season, but the Spartans are 3-1 and have an outside shot at a bowl game. And like Nebraska, they are off a bye after their first loss of the season. Michigan State should be able to take advantage of Nebraska's poor run defense. The two power conference teams Nebraska has faced (Cincinnati and Michigan) rushed for nearly 500 yards at over seven yards per clip. Michigan State has been decent on the ground, averaging around 130 yards per game at nearly four yards per carry against their two power conference opponents. In addition, Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith has been an underdog covering machine at both Corvallis and East Lansing. His teams at Oregon State and Michigan State are a combined 17-9 ATS as a road underdog. Nebraska should not be favored against any Big 10 team by double digits save perhaps Northwestern and maybe Purdue. Take the Spartans to give the Cornhuskers all they can handle in Lincoln. 

Florida State +4.5 Miami

Last week I faded Florida State as they were playing their first road game against a quality opponent after a month at home. Miami is in an eerily similar situation this week. The Hurricanes pulled a narrow upset over Notre Dame in their opener and have not been challenged since against a trio of in-state teams of varying quality (Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, and Florida). The Hurricane offense wrecked Bethune-Cookman and South Florida (over 1100 combined yards), but against the two power conference teams on their schedule (Notre Dame and Florida), they have averaged under five yards per play. Florida State's defense suffered some breakdowns last week against Virginia, but the Seminoles actually outgained the Cavaliers by 74 yards and averaged a yard more per play. Florida State had a fluky interception inside the Virginia red zone and seemed ready to take control of the game after spotting Virginia a 14-0 lead. Last week's loss to the Cavaliers was tough, but the Seminoles are still alive in both the ACC race and the College Football Playoff. I expect them to be motivated when their unbeaten in-state rival travels to Tallahassee. Miami is a shade overrated by the betting public (Notre Dame's best defensive performance by both total yards and yards per play came against the Hurricanes) and as they venture away from home, I expect another top ten team to go down.