College Football Plays
Over/Under Win Totals
I made 45 college football win total plays (six more than last year). They are listed below, broken down by conference.
AAC Plays
Army over 5.5 wins ($25 to win $41.65)
The Black Knights are joining a conference for the second time in their history. I think their unique offense will prove to be an advantage, at least early on, in their AAC tenure.
East Carolina over 6.5 wins ($25 to win $47.75)
The Pirates bottomed out last season, but if their offense can improve, I think they return to respectability.
Memphis under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $41.15)
I bet on Memphis to win more than 7.5 games last year and I had to sweat out a ton of games thanks to a very bad defense. I think the Tigers are overvalued by the market and while they may be AAC contenders, they should lose at least three times (play Florida State in the non-con).
North Texas over 5.5 wins ($25 to win $43.50)
The Mean Green nearly made a bowl game in head coach Eric Morris' first season in charge. Another year in the system and a less than daunting schedule should have North Texas back in a bowl game.
ACC Plays
Florida State under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $47.75)
The Seminoles play at Notre Dame in the non-con. If they drop that game, I'm sure they can find at least two league losses to go under this number. Outside of 2023, the Seminoles are 11-13 in ACC play under Mike Norvell.
Louisville under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $39.70)
The Cardinals rode an easy league schedule to the ACC Championship Game last season. There is a little more heft on the league schedule this year along with road games at Kentucky and Notre Dame in the non-con.
Miami under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $38.90)
Talent-wise, they are probably the best team in the ACC. However, the Hurricanes have dropped five games as a betting favorite in two seasons under Mario Cristobal. In addition, their new quarterback is a bit erratic. There are enough land mines on this schedule, including road trips to Florida and South Florida in the non-con for the Hurricanes to lose three times.
NC State under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $52.50)
The Wolfpack have never disappointed with moderate expectations have they? The Wolfpack were fortunate to win nine game last season and quarterback Grayson McCall may not be the player he was early in his career at Coastal Carolina.
Pittsburgh over 5.5 wins ($300 to win $660.00)
Along with Vanderbilt, this is my biggest win total play in 2024. The Panthers brought in a new offensive coordinator (Kade Bell) to fix that side of the ball and the defense is always solid under Pat Narduzzi. I don't think there will be much of a sweat here. Pitt will either cruise to eight wins and buy Narduzzi a few more years or win four games and get him fired.
Stanford over 3.5 wins ($25 to win $42.85)
The Cardinal won three games last season in a true rebuilding year. In their second year under Troy Taylor, I expect at least moderate improvement.
Syracuse under 7.5 wins ($25 to win $41.15)
In the offseason, I was optimistic about Syracuse. I thought the Orange might be a good play on the over. However, I was expecting their win total to be about 5.5. Expectations have gotten out of hand for a team that has won more than seven regular season games just once since 2001.
Big 10 Plays
Illinois over 5.5 wins ($40 to win $84.00)
The Illini were better than their record last season and while the dissolution of divisions will hurt them, the schedule is still manageable.
Indiana over 5.5 wins ($40 to win $69.65)
The Hoosiers hit a home run in their coaching search by prying Curt Cignetti away from James Madison. An easy non-con schedule and winnable home conference games should have them bowling.
Penn State under 10 wins ($25 to win $47.75)
The Nittany Lions had an unsustainable turnover margin in Big 10 play last season (+17). A little regression in that department even with a softer schedule should have them with two losses minimum.
Rutgers under 6.5 wins ($25 to win $46.75)
Rutgers benefits massively from the Big 10 dismantling its divisional structure. Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State are no longer on the schedule annually. However, expecting Rutgers to win seven regular season games is a shade too ambitious. The Scarlet Knights have topped six regular season wins just once since joining the Big 10 in 2014.
Southern Cal over 7.5 wins ($25 to win $46.75)
Anytime you can get a marquee program at a discount, you have to take it. The Trojans were better than their record last season and still have Lincoln Riley in charge of an offense that will be unfamiliar to most of their conference opponents.
Big 12 Plays
Cincinnati over 5.5 wins ($25 to win $48.80)
Their first year in the Big 12 was a season to forget. However, the Bearcats were somewhat unfortunate to win just three games (1-4 record in one-score games). A little better luck and another year under Scott Satterfield should get the Bearcats back to a bowl.
Iowa State over 7.5 wins ($25 to win $45.85)
I backed Iowa State last season when they had a modest win total (5.5). They won seven and they are still somewhat under the radar heading into 2024. This is not a team you want to back when they have significant expectations, but when not much is expected, look out.
Kansas under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $41.15)
I never root for injuries, but Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is injury prone. If he misses even a few games, Kansas will probably be in trouble. The Jayhawks also lost their dynamic offensive coordinator, so I expect a step back even when accounting for Daniels.
Oklahoma State under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $42.25)
When measured by First Half Point Differential, Oklahoma State was one of the worst conference title participants of all time in 2023. I expect regression and in a deep conference, a handful of losses.
CUSA Plays
Jacksonville State under 7.5 wins ($25 to win $51.25)
Despite the reputation of their head coach, Jacksonville State was led by their aggressive havoc causing defense last season. Most of the players responsible for those TFLs and tackles in general are gone. The Gamecocks won eight games in the regular season in 2023. I don't see them matching that total in 2024.
Kennesaw State over 2.5 wins ($25 to win $48.80)
The Owls played six FBS or FCS teams last season and lost to all six. However, five of those losses came by a touchdown or less. This team was a playoff caliber FCS team since their inception and I expect them to be competitive in their first season as an FBS team.
Liberty under 10.5 wins ($25 to win $50.00)
Perhaps this bet is more wish fulfillment. Still, while Liberty finished unbeaten in CUSA play last season, two of their wins came by one score. If one league foe can take them down, App State and East Carolina are waiting in the non-con to inflict loss number two.
Middle Tennessee State over 4.5 wins ($25 to win $43.50)
The Blue Raiders were better than their record last season and have a real shot at getting to a bowl in Derek Mason's first season in charge.
Sam Houston State over 4.5 wins ($25 to win $44.25)
Their first season as an FBS program involved a ton of tight losses (five by one score), but the Bearkats were competitive nearly every week. I expect them to contend for a bowl game in 2024.
UTEP over 4.5 wins ($25 to win $55.50)
Perhaps I am overly optimistic about the mid and lower tier teams in Conference USA. I might be a year early on UTEP, but I think they will find good success under head coach Scotty Walden.
MAC Plays
Akron over 3 wins ($40 to win $66.65)
The Zips burned me last season when they continued their close game misfortune. Eventually, they have to win a few close ones. Either that or Joe Moorhead gets fired.
Buffalo over 4.5 wins ($40 to win $69.65)
Pete Lembo had great success in the MAC at Ball State nearly a decade ago. I think he can turn Buffalo around fairly quickly, especially with a weak schedule.
Kent State over 2.5 wins ($25 to win $41.15)
Am I dumpster diving too much in the MAC? Perhaps, but this number is quite low and there is a decent chance Kent State is not the worst team in the conference in 2024.
Miami under 8 wins ($25 to win $44.25)
The Redhawks have to win nine games to beat me. With an injury prone quarterback, a tough non-con schedule, and a coach that is overly conservative, I like those odds.
Toledo under 8.5 wins ($40 to win $68.55)
This schedule appears to have two losses from the jump in the non-con (road trips to Western Kentucky and Mississippi State). Can the Rockets limit themselves to one league loss to hit the over? I have my doubts.
Mountain West Plays
Air Force over 6.5 wins ($25 to win $40.65)
Troy Calhoun has been the most consistent academy coach of his generation. I'll bank on him to find seven wins.
New Mexico over 1.5 wins ($25 to win $37.50)
As mentioned previously, I love dumpster diving. If the Lobos lose at home to Montana State in Week Zero it will be hard to to over this meager number. But if they win...
San Diego State under 5.5 wins ($25 to win $50.00)
I like the Sean Lewis hire long term, but changing the Aztecs identity from an old-school defense first approach to a lightning fast offensive blur probably involves some growing pains.
UNLV under 7.5 wins ($25 to win $41.65)
The Rebels came out of nowhere to qualify for their first Mountain West Championship Game last season. The pieces are in place for another shot at a conference title, but the non-con schedule (and the defense) should limit their ceiling.
Wyoming under 6.5 wins ($25 to win $48.80)
I think we find out just how good of a coach Craig Bohl was. The Cowboys probably won't be as good defensively and while the offense might begin to feel more modern, I don't see this team wining seven games.
SEC Plays
Arkansas over 4.5 wins ($40 to win $78.10)
Are things really that bad in Fayetteville? Sam Pittman had one bad season and now the walls are closing in? I think his hire of Bobby Petrino will buy him at least another year before Bobby undermines the head coach and tries to get his old job back.
Missouri under 9.5 wins ($30 to win $49.35)
Teams that begin the season unranked and finish in the top ten tend to regress the following season. 2023 was Missouri's 'magical' season. Three losses minimum are in store for 2024.
Mississippi under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $50.00)
The Rebels used the portal to assemble a College Football Playoff contender. However, I think the SEC schedule will test their depth and continuity.
Mississippi State over 4 wins ($30 to win $50.70)
Mercifully, the Zach Arnett experiment ended after one season. The Bulldogs have gone back to their offense-first identity by hiring Jeff Lebby. There are enough tomato cans in the non-con to get this team close to the number and they should spring one upset in the SEC.
Texas under 10.5 wins ($25 to win $37.50)
The Longhorns have a tough non-con game at Michigan and while their SEC schedule is relatively light, they do play Georgia at home, Oklahoma at a neutral site, and former SWC rivals Arkansas and Texas A&M on the road. A team coached by Steve Sarkisian dropping two games as a favorite would not shock me.
Vanderbilt over 2.5 wins ($300 to win $457.90)
I see three wins minimum on this schedule (Alcorn State, Ball State, and Georgia State). The Georgia State game is on the road, but that team is rebuilding. Even if they drop one of those, I think the Commodores beat either Virginia Tech or South Carolina at home to sail over this number.
Sun Belt Plays
Old Dominion under 4.5 wins ($25 to win $42.25)
The Monarchs non-con is brutal (Bowling Green, East Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech) and a goose egg is possible. In Sun Belt action, they are among the least experienced teams in returning production. I can't see them finishing with a winning conference record, so the play is under.
South Alabama over 6.5 wins ($25 to win $44.25)
The Jaguars were much better than their record last season, so despite the loss of a solid head coach, I think they have a lot of potential in 2024.
Texas State under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $47.75)
Are we expecting too much too fast from Texas State? I think so. The defense was bad last season and will probably be bad once again. And while the Bobcats don't leave the state in the non-con, there are at least two potential losses (UTSA and Arizona State). If they drop both of those, are the Bobcats really rolling through the Sun Belt win one or fewer league losses? I doubt it.
College Football Game of the Year Lines
September 7
Arkansas +12 Oklahoma State ($50 to win $94.45)
Per my previous write ups, I am higher on Arkansas and lower on Oklahoma State than the market. Plus Arkansas opens with a breather (Arkansas Pine-Bluff) while Oklahoma State has a tricky battle with the defending FCS champ in their opener (South Dakota State).
September 13
UNLV +15 Kansas ($50 to win $94.45)
While technically a home game for Kansas, this game will actually be played at Children's Mercy Park, a soccer stadium. The Jayhawks will not have any true home games this season (games played here and at Arrowhead Stadium) and these teams just played last postseason in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Kansas won by thirteen and I would expect a similar margin here, so catching more than fourteen makes the Rebels the play.
September 14
Washington State +9 Washington ($40 to win $76.35)
This is Washington State's Super Bowl after their in-state rivals bolted from the Pac-12. The Huskies open Big 10 play the next week while Washington State continues their Mountain West barnstorming tour.
September 14
Colorado State +9 Colorado ($50 to win $94.95)
The is Colorado State's Super Bowl and the first time they will have hosted Colorado since 1996! The Rams have a warmup game against Northern Colorado before this in-state showdown while Colorado must travel to Nebraska to renew an old Big 8 rivalry.
November 29
UCF +4 Utah ($50 to win $94.95)
This will mark Utah's first excursion to the eastern time zone as a member of the Big 12 and their first trip to Florida since they opened the 2022 season by losing to Anthony Richardson and the Florida Gators. I'll take the quality home team catching more than a field goal.
November 30
Iowa State +1.5 Kansas State ($50 to win $94.95)
The 2024 edition of Farmageddon could be for a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Matt Campbell is 6-2 ATS as head coach of Iowa State against Kansas State, including 2-0 as a home underdog.
November 30
North Carolina +4 NC State ($50 to win $94.95)
North Carolina has not been a home underdog under Mack Brown since the pandemic season of 2020. Both these teams tend to shrink when they have expectations, and this season, the team from Raleigh is the darling of the offseason.
College Football Futures
James Madison to win Sun Belt ($10 to win $85.00)
The Dukes lost a great head coach, but may have hired one of their own by nabbing Bob Chesney from Holy Cross. They would have won the division the past two seasons had they been eligible.
UAB to win AAC ($10 to win $340.00)
UAB was better than their record last season and while their win total (6.5) was a little too high for me, I think this team has a lot of potential upside.
UCF to win Big 12 ($10 to win $85.00)
UCF has a poor man's Cam Newton (KJ Jefferson) at quarterback in a system run by Gus Malzahn. Crazier things have happened.
College Football Parlay ($10 to win $120.00 - all must hit)
August 31
Georgia State +20.5 Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets will be coming back from Ireland and might not be ready for Georgia State.
August 31
West Virginia +11 Penn State
I'm lower on Penn State than the market and I think the Mountaineers can make this a game.
August 31
Vanderbilt +13.5 Virginia Tech
I'm higher on Vanderbilt than the market and I think Diego Pavia can make life miserable for the Hokies.
September 2
Boston College +22.5 Florida State
Florida State will also be returning from Ireland and may not be focused on the Eagles.
NFL Plays
Over/Under Win Totals
Green Bay under 10 wins ($25 to win $46.75)
The Packers closed strong last season, going 6-2 over the second half of the season to clinch a playoff spot. However, five of those wins came by one score. With Detroit looking like the class of the division, and potential improvement at Chicago and Minnesota, the Packers failing to exceed last season's win total would not shock me.
Jacksonville over 8.5 wins ($25 to win $45.00)
Jacksonville was the team to beat in the AFC South heading into last season. Unfortunately, they wheezed to the finish dropping five of their final six games to miss the playoffs. Three of those losses were by one score and the Jaguars still finished with a winning record. If they can match that record, they will cash this ticket.
Los Angeles Chargers under 9 wins ($25 to win $50.00)
Maybe Jim Harbaugh is the missing piece to making the Chargers contenders. I think his presence is artificially inflating this win total by at least half a game. The Chargers would have to double last season's win total (5) to make this a losing bet.
New England over 4.5 wins ($25 to win $42.25)
The Patriots won four games last season with god-awful quarterback play. Things can only get better on that side of the ball in 2024. The defense should remain stout and the former team everyone loves to hate should eke out at least five wins.
New Orleans over 7.5 wins ($25 to win $45.00)
Someone has to win the NFC South and while Tampa Bay probably has the best team, New Orleans is good enough to contend.
Philadelphia under 10.5 wins ($25 to win $55.00)
I think the Eagles second half skid was more indicative of their true quality than their 10-1 start. I also think their 'Brotherly Shove' will miss the loss of center Jason Kelce.
MLB Division Parlay ($10 to win $31.75 - all must hit)
Baltimore to win AL East
Can the Orioles edge out the Yankees?
Philadelphia to win NL East
Can the Phillies hold off the injured Braves
Milwaukee to win NL Central
Can the Brewers hold off the Cardinals?
Thanks for reading my annual Vegas trip summary. The season gets underway in sixteen days with Week Zero. There won't be enough games for spread picks that weekend, but I'll be back with weekly picks shortly after that Saturday appetizer.
No comments:
Post a Comment