2022 Yards Per Play: Pac-12

Happy NFL Draft Day to all who celebrate. Seven conferences down, three to go. Hard to believe we are approaching the end of our season reviews. That of course means the arduous and long offseason is about halfway over. This week we stay out west and examine the Pac-12. 

Here are the 2022 Pac-12 standings. 

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Pac-12 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2022 season, which teams in the Pac-12 met this threshold? Here are Pac-12 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Southern Cal significantly overachieved relative to their YPP numbers while Arizona and Cal underachieved. Southern Cal was 4-1 in one-score conference games, but the biggest difference between their actual and expected record was probably their absurd turnover margin. The Trojans committed just four turnovers in their nine regular season Pac-12 games and their in-conference turnover margin of +14 was tops in the league. Meanwhile, the Cal Bears finished 1-4 in one-score conference games, dooming them to a third consecutive losing season. Arizona actually finished 2-1 in one-score conference games and posted the league's best per play offense. So why was there such a disconnect between their actual and expected record? Its kind of a mystery. The Wildcats had a negative in-conference turnover margin (-6), but it wasn't especially bad. They converted less than half their fourth downs in conference play (seven of fifteen), but that percentage is hardly terrible. Similarly, Pac-12 opponents converted more than half their fourth down attempts against the Wildcats, but they weren't exceptional (nine of sixteen). The little things conspired against the Wildcats and as we'll see in a moment, their conference record was historical, considering how well their offense played. 

Taking Offense

In 2010, Chip Kelly led the Oregon Ducks to the BCS Championship Game with an offense that led the Pac-10 by averaging 6.62 yards per play in conference action. Twelve seasons later, his 2022 UCLA team averaged 7.09 yards per play. That number was only good for fourth place! The 2022 Pac-12 featured quite a few exceptional offenses. In fact, it was the first BCS/Power Five conference to have four teams average north of seven yards per in conference play. 

I mentioned a few lines up that Arizona's conference record was an historical outlier, at least relative to their offensive output. Here's what I mean. Since 2005, 48 teams have averaged at least seven yards per play over the course of their conference schedule. The other 47 teams combined to finish 323-65 in their respective leagues. That's roughly seven and a half wins in a nine-game conference schedule like the Pac-12 currently plays. Arizona finished 3-6 and in the process became just the sixth team to finish .500 or worse in conference play while averaging at least seven yards per play. They also became just the second to finish with a losing record. 

Does Arizona have another leap in them in 2023? They quintupled their win total in 2022 and played an exciting brand of football. Their leading receiver transferred to Southern Cal, but their starting quarterback and a second thousand yard receiver are back. Arizona is probably not winning the Pac-12 in 2023 or in the near future, but if you like your horses dark, you could do a lot worse than the team in Tucson. 

2022 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Mountain West

Happy 420 to all who celebrate. Last week we looked at how Mountain West teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2022 Mountain West standings. 

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Mountain West teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Half of the Mountain West saw their APR differ significantly from their actual record. Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, and Wyoming won more games that we would expect from their ratio of touchdowns scored and allowed, while Hawaii and Air Force won fewer. Colorado State actually underachieved relative to their YPP numbers as we discussed last week. The Rams were not able to covert their decent per play offense (eighth in the Mountain West) into actual touchdowns (eleventh). Meanwhile, their very good defense (second in yards allowed per play) was not able to keep teams out of the endzone (seventh in touchdowns allowed). San Diego State and Wyoming were similar in quality and style. Both had trouble scoring, but were pretty good at keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone. However, they both allowed more touchdowns that they scored in Mountain West play despite posting identical 5-3 conference records. Wyoming did finish 3-1 in one-score conference games which helps explain some of the disconnect between their APR and their actual record. UNLV actually finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, but the difference between their APR and actual record can be explained by an injury to their starting quarterback. Doug Brumfield missed a conference game and major parts of two others meaning he saw significant action in five of UNLV's Mountain West games. In the five games he participated in, the Rebels were 2-3, but they outscored their opponents while averaging 26 points per game. In the three games Brumfield either missed or was a light participant, the Rebels were 1-2, averaged under 14 points per game, and were outscored by 21 points per game. For Air Force and Hawaii, the difference in their APR and actual record can easily be explained by their close games struggles. The Falcons and Warriors combined to finish 1-7 in one-score Mountain West games. 

Second Half Adjustments

Last week we discussed in detail the abysmal offense in Albuquerque. While researching how bad the Lobos were, I noticed something. Despite finishing with zero Mountain West wins in 2022, the Lobos were actually ahead in three games at halftime. They led UNLV by eight in an eventual eleven point loss. They were up a touchdown on Wyoming in a thirteen point loss. And they were up three on Utah State in a seventeen point loss. What did all three games have in common? The Lobos scored three total points in the second half of those games. 

New Mexico's offense was bad in 2022. They scored seven total offensive touchdowns in eight games. However, in the first half of their conference games, the offense was competent. It wasn't good, but the Lobos at least looked like they were capable of throwing, catching, and blocking like a college football team full of actual players on scholarship. The second half of those games was another story. 

That is not a misprint. New Mexico scored one offensive touchdown in the second half of their conference games in 2022. It came in the conference opener when they were down 24-0 to Boise State. In other words, the Lobos are on a seven game streak of zero second half touchdowns. New Mexico opens Mountain West play on the last day of September in Laramie. When the second half of that games kicks off, they will have gone a full calendar year without scoring a second half touchdown in conference play!

2022 Yards Per Play: Mountain West

Six conferences down, four to go. This week we shed our east coast bias and examine the Mountain West. 

Here are the 2022 Mountain West standings. 

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Mountain West team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2022 season, which teams in the Mountain West met this threshold? Here are Mountain West teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Fresno State and Utah State significantly overachieved relative to their expected record based on YPP while Colorado State and Nevada significantly underachieved. Fresno State was 3-0 in one-score conference games, but their I believe the disparity between their actual and expected record is due to the injury suffered by quarterback Jake Haener. Haener missed Fresno State's first three conference games. The Bulldogs went 2-1 in those games and averaged 0.18 more yards per play than their three opponents (Boise State, San Jose State, and New Mexico), while averaging a pedestrian 5.18 yards per play. Over their last five league games with Haener, the Bulldogs averaged 6.37 yards per play and bested Mountain West opponents by 1.05 yards per play. I think they proved they were the best team in the conference with Haener when they defeated Boise State on the Smurf Turf in the Mountain West Championship Game. Utah State exceeded their expected record for the second consecutive year mostly due to their 4-0 record in one-score conference games (they were 3-0 last year, so maybe Blake Anderson brought a rabbit's foot with him from Arkansas State). Colorado State and Nevada were both breaking in new coaches (with Colorado State breaking in Nevada's former head coach). Nevada was 0-3 in one-score conference games, posted the worst in-conference turnover margin in the Mountain West (-6), and in two of their close losses (Colorado State and UNLV), non-offensive touchdowns were a major contributing factor. Colorado State's disparity is a little harder to get a handle on. The Rams improved on both sides of the ball as the season progressed. In their first four conference games, the Rams posted a Net YPP of -0.57. However, they managed to win two of those four games (both wins by a combined seven points). Over their final four conference games, they posted a Net YPP of +1.54. However, they dropped three of those four games (one loss by a single point). Over those final four games, the Rams posted elite YPP margins. It will be interesting to see if they can continue that solid play in 2023. 

Worst Modern Offense?

Two Mountain West teams finished winless in league play in 2022, Nevada and New Mexico. Both also finished with the worst per play offenses in the Mountain West. However, while their rankings are one spot apart, the Wolfpack finished more than a yard per play clear of the Lobos. And you may also remember the Lobos also finished with the worst per play offense in conference play in the Mountain West last season. Not only have they finished last in back-to-back season, they have also finished below four yards per play in consecutive seasons. This feat has not been matched by any other mid-major team in the time I have been tracking Yards Per Play (since 2005). 

Give the Lobos credit. They did improve slightly in per play offense. However, it was the second worst improvement behind only...New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. As you can see, the average offense improved by more than a yard per play. 

Not only did the Lobos struggle moving the football, they also had a hard time scoring. In 2021, the Lobos scored seven offensive touchdowns in eight conference games. In 2022, they scored...seven offensive touchdowns in eight conference games. In the process they became the first mid-major team to average one offensive touchdown or less in conference play in consecutive seasons. 

The Lobos were the only team to not improve their offensive touchdowns per game output. Prior to their bar-lowering ineptitude, their in-state rivals in Las Cruces held the record for slightest improvement among offensively challenged teams (the Aggies scored an additional half touchdown more per WAC game in 2010 than they did in 2009). Offensive coordinator Derek Warehime was let go in October (and rightfully so), but for head coach Danny Gonzales to survive 2023, the offense must show some signs of life. 

2022 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2022 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Using the somewhat arbitrary standard of a game and a half, Bowling Green and Akron were the only teams that saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR. Bowling Green significantly overachieved. The Falcons finished with a winning conference record despite allowing nine more touchdowns than they scored in MAC play. Four of their five conference wins came by a touchdown or less while all three of their conference losses came by at least 24 points (total margin of defeat in those losses was 89 points). Akron significantly underachieved and they also underachieved relative to their YPP numbers and we went over some reasons for that last week. 

Punching Above His Weight Class

Last week, we took an in depth look at one half of the duo of longest tenured MAC coaches, Chuck Martin. This week, we take a look at the phenomenal job Chris Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan. 

When Chuck Martin took over at Miami, the Redhawks were suffering through a downturn, but at least they had history of success. The Redhawks finished with a winning MAC record for twelve consecutive seasons between 1994 and 2005 and they finished the 2003 season ranked tenth in the AP Poll. That was certainly not the case when Chris Creighton became head coach at Eastern Michigan. Before Creighton, Eastern Michigan had employed nine non-interim head coaches since they joined FBS in 1975. None left Ypsilanti with a winning record. By winning percentage, the best was Ed Chlebek, who engineered an eight win campaign in 1977 and got the heck out of town. Before Creighton's arrival, the Eagles had not finished with a winning record since 1995! Creighton had a track record for winning at difficult places, posting winning records at disparate outposts Ottawa, Wabash, and Drake. Like Martin, Creighton did not employ quick fixes at Eastern Michigan. His first two teams finished a combined 3-21 (1-15 in MAC play), but since 2016, he has put a competitive product on the field. The Eagles are 43-40 (26-28 in MAC play) and have played in five bowl games. However, perhaps his most impressive accomplishment is the number of Power scalps the Eagles have claimed for the MAC in that span.

The Eagles upset Rutgers in 2017 and have beaten Power Five teams in 2018, 2019, and 2022. Prior to the 2017 victory, Eastern Michigan had never beaten a team from a Power Five conference (or the functional equivalent in pre-College Football Playoff days). The Eagles only get one crack at a Power Five team in 2023, but a fifth victory over one of the big boys wouldn't shock me.