double-doink that ended their first playoff appearance since 2010, they can take solace in the fact that they topped the APR charts. Peruse and dissect the ratings at your leisure (and let me know how they over or under rate your favorite team).
As you may recall from last week, more than three quarters of teams since 2002 have finished with a final record within two games of their APR. I decided to use that as a somewhat arbitrary threshold when accessing teams that significantly over or under-perform. Those teams that over-perform by at least two games tend to come back to earth the following season and those teams that under-perform tend to bounce back the following season. In 2018, five teams either over or under-performed by at least two games and should be strongly considered for regression or progression when prospecting their final records in 2019. They are listed below.
- Close Game Record: A team’s record in games decided by eight points or less.
- Turnover Margin: The number of turnovers a team committed subtracted from the number they forced (positive values are better).
- Non-Offensive Touchdown Net: The number of non-offensive touchdowns (defense or special teams) a team allowed subtracted from the number they scored (again positive is better).
totality of the Adam Gase regime). If you look closely at their final record, you will notice they did not win a single game by more than eight points. Now for the other side of the coin.
poor coaching likely cost them a few victories. Minnesota’s Achilles heel was their propensity to allow teams to score against them in unconventional ways with Kirk Cousins contributing three pick sixes to the cause.
If you are an over/under win total enthusiast like myself, keep an eye on these five teams when placing your bets over the summer. Recent history indicates the trio of the Rams, Texans, and Dolphins might be in for a regression while the Broncos and Vikings could see their records improve in 2019.