The Magnificent Seven: Week I

We are back baby! The longest offseason in sports is over, so kick back, relax, and enjoy college football until it is irreparably damaged by conference commissioners, congress, or Lane Kiffin signing a full NFL practice squad. For the uninitiated, I'll be making a weekly post (usually dropping on Thursdays) handicapping my seven favorite ATS plays each week. This is sides only. No totals, prop bets, or anything fancy. Look for them to be only slightly more accurate than flipping a coin. As always, home teams in bold. 

Akron +24 Wake Forest

Year One of the Jake Dickert era was a rousing success in Winston-Salem. After winning just eight games in their final two seasons under Dave Clawson the Demon Deacons won eight in the regular season and capped it off with a victory against an SEC team in the Mayo Bowl. Any hopes for a return to the postseason must involve a victory against Akron. After hosting the Zips, ten of their final eleven opponents are power conference teams (nine ACC games plus a non-conference road trip to Purdue). Wake quietly fielded one of the better defensive units in the ACC last season, ranking fifth in the conference in yards allowed per play. In the 90's, that would have been middle of the pack, but in case you missed it, the league now features seventeen members, so the Demon Deacons were comfortably in the top third of the league defensively. Overall, the defense improved by nearly a yard per play against ACC foes. Some regression is likely in store as I doubt Wake has a top third defensive roster in the ACC. The offense on the other hand could improve with Gio Lopez at quarterback. Lopez played well two seasons ago at South Alabama, but struggled at North Carolina last season. Some of those struggles in Chapel Hill could be due to his offensive coordinator last season (Freddie Kitchens), but Lopez may not have the talent to be a power conference quarterback. Regardless, I expect the offense to need some time to adapt to the new signal caller. This is the main reason I suggest backing the Zips in this game. Since Sam Hartman left the program for untold riches in South Bend following the 2022 season, Wake has not been favored by more than 17 points against an FBS opponent. If my math is correct, this spread is a touchdown north of that number. Akron has struggled in four seasons under Joe Moorhead, posting a 13-35 overall record, but this should be his best team for what its worth. Their quarterback, Reese Poffenbarger, played well for Albany of the FCS in 2023 and transferred to FBS schools in 2024 and 2025. Unfortunately, he was not able to win quarterback battles against Cam Ward (Miami) and Drew Mestemaker (North Texas). Obviously, its hard to project how well Poffenbarger will play in the Akron system, but he was good enough to make rosters at FBS schools the past two seasons. This is too many points to lay for a team that may struggle to reach 30 points in the game. Back the Zips. 

Liberty +7 James Madison

Unlike last season when the first full Saturday of college football kicked off with Texas visiting Ohio State, there are not a lot of marquee matchups in the early window. Might I recommend this battle in the Commonwealth of Virginia between two solid Group of Six programs? While Liberty has underachieved the past two seasons, including bottoming out with a 4-8 mark last season, they are regarded by most power ratings as the best team in Conference USA. Meanwhile, James Madison is coming off a College Football Playoff appearance in just their fourth year as a member of the FBS. As is usually the case with success at the lower levels of football, that success meant James Madison was in the market for a new head football coach for the second time in three seasons. They nailed the hire two years ago when they tabbed Bob Chesney from Holy Cross to replace the departed Curt Cignetti. They did not select another successful FCS coach, and instead chose a failed power conference coach to lead the team. In fairness, had Billy Napier gone from Louisiana-Lafayette to James Madison four years ago, his hire would have been heralded. In four seasons as head coach of Louisiana-Lafayette, Napier guided the Ragin' Cajuns to four consecutive Sun Belt West division titles, the last of which resulted in an outright Sun Belt title and final ranking of 16 in the AP Poll. Of course, his tenure at Florida did happen, and outside of a strong close to 2024, was not successful. The Gators finished with a losing record under his watch (22-23 overall and 12-16 in the SEC). Napier's teams have performed poorly as a home favorite, posting a 10-17-1 ATS mark at Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida with seven outright losses. The Dukes have significantly less continuity than the Flames, so another home loss as a favorite may be in the cards. Napier will probably have the Dukes in contention for the Sun Belt East division by the time the season ends, but I think his tenure begins with an inauspicious start. 

Boston College +7.5 Cincinnati

Full disclosure, my biggest regular season win total position is Boston College over 3.5 wins. Logically then, it stands to reason I expect them to win this game, or at least keep it close. Here's why. Last season was an outlier for Bill O'Brien. In three previous seasons as an FBS head coach, his teams had posted middling records, winning eight, seven, and seven regular season games at a scandal plagued Penn State and in his first season as coach of the Eagles. Last season, another middling performance was expected, with the Eagles picked to finish in the bottom third of the bloated ACC. The Eagles won their opener against Fordham and did not win again until their regular season finale at Syracuse. Eight of those ten losses came to teams that finished bowl eligible, so by ACC standards, the schedule was tough. Looking to jump start the offense, O'Brien scoured the lower rungs of college football and brought in quarterback Mason McKenzie from Division II Saginaw Valley State. McKenzie is an athletic quarterback who gives the offense a significant run threat. As the season progresses, McKenzie may struggle in his adjustment to the highest level of football, but I expect him to have a good game, especially with his legs, against Cincinnati. Speaking of the Bearcats, they are just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite under Scott Satterfield and have struggled in Nippert Stadium overall under his guidance. They are just 6-11 straight up at home in Satterfield's three seasons. Take the Eagles to keep this one close and don't be surprised if they spring an outright upset. 

Wyoming +3 Colorado State

For the first time since 1967, these two rivals will face off in a non-conference game. Kudos to the Cowboys and Rams for keeping the Border War going despite Colorado State's move to the reconstituted Pac-12. These two won't play next year, but the game is on the schedule through 2036 outside of that one-year hiatus. While the Rams are favored, the Cowboys have dominated this rivalry of late. Wyoming has won eight of the past ten in the series despite both teams entering as favorites five times. Wyoming is also no stranger to winning in Fort Collins, posting a 3-2 record in their past five trips (two outright underdog wins). Colorado State does seem poised to finally fulfill their 'sleeping giant' (at least in the Group of Six ranks) potential. Colorado State opened their new stadium nine years ago by thumping a then power conference Oregon State 58-27. The future seemed bright, with the Rams coming off four consecutive bowl bids. They would make it five straight in 2017, albeit with a mediocre 7-6 record. However, since then, they have finished with a winning record just once (2024), while winning three games or fewer five times. I think they nailed the coaching hire this cycle by coaxing Jim Mora Jr. back to the Pac-12 from Connecticut where he guided the previously moribund Huskies to three bowl games in four seasons. While the future looks bright in Fort Collins yet again, there may be some growing pains in year one, especially in the first game against a hated rival. While Colorado State just hired a new coach, Wyoming could be doing the same after 2026. Jay Sawvel has guided the Cowboys to a 7-17 record in his first two seasons as head coach since taking over for the legendary Craig Bohl. Likely sensing the the walls closing in, Sawvel brought in a productive FCS quarterback to try and spark the offense (averaged under 20 point per game each of the past two seasons). Quarterback Tyler Hughes accounted for 31 touchdowns last season at William and Mary as the Tribe finished 7-5 in the rugged Colonial Athletic Association, but more importantly averaged nearly 35 points per game. By default, Hughes will be the best quarterback to take the field for the Cowboys since that guy who got drafted by Buffalo nearly a decade ago. The Cowboys went to the Mountain West Championship Game with Josh Allen in 2016. I don't think they can or will reach those heights in 2026, but they will compete for a bowl game and be in position to pull off an outright upset in their opener. 

Sam Houston State +17.5 Troy

The case for Troy as a Sun Belt contender in 2026 all comes down to how you frame things. On one hand, the Trojans have won the Sun Belt West division in three of the past four seasons. On the other hand, two of those division titles came under Jon Sumrall (current head coach of the Florida Gators). In fact, under current head coach Gerad Parker, the Trojans have finished with negative yards per play margins against Sun Belt teams the past two seasons. They managed to exceed those meager numbers and qualify for the Sun Belt Championship Game last season, but they were arguably worse (just luckier) than they were in Parker's first season. I think that division title and subsequent solid performance against James Madison has driven this line up too far. Sam Houston struggled in Phil Longo's first season as head coach, beginning the year 0-8 before scoring one of the more under the radar upsets of the year by beating Oregon State in Corvallis. The Bearkats won again the next week against Delaware, but returned to their losing ways, closing the season with back to back losses to Middle Tennessee and Florida International by a combined 54 points. The Bearkats will probably endure another long season, but stranger things have happened in Conference USA. I know this number is really high, but I think you should even sprinkle a little on the moneyline for Sam Houston State. A tight game in the fourth quarter would not shock me. 

Clemson +10 LSU

Both these Tigers disappointed last season as they finished with identical 7-5 regular season records despite each beginning the year in the top ten of the AP Poll. The disappointing season ended Brian Kelly's tenure at LSU and opened the door for everyone's favorite clown, Lane Kiffin, to swap SEC jobs and head to the bayou. Obviously Kiffin has had a successful coaching career. He did lead Ole Miss to the College Football Playoff last season after all, but a team with expectations coached by Lane Kiffin is almost destined to disappoint. He is an unserious football coach. He will win the press conference and consistently put good offenses on the field, but maintaining consistency throughout the season is not his strong suit. Will the Tigers be good enough in his first game to win by double digits against Clemson? I have my doubts. Consider last year's game. Clemson was favored by roughly four points at home. One year later, the point spread has shifted by nearly two touchdowns. Part of that is due to the venue change, but that would only account for about four to six points in adjustments. As I mentioned, both of these teams disappointed last season. LSU's victory did not propel them to greatness. They beat just three other power conference teams after knocking off Clemson. Kiffin brought some talent in, including quarterback Sam Leavitt from Arizona State. Will that talent gel by the opener? And while we are discussing Kiffin, are we sure he is a better coach than Brian Kelly? He is certainly nowhere near as accomplished. While LSU opens as the eleventh ranked team in the preseason AP Poll, Clemson is flying under the radar in the 'others receiving votes category'. Long time head coach Dabo Swinney should be able to play the 'disrespect' card. While Swinney and I are probably polar opposites in terms of politics, he does seem to be quite genuine. And if he is not, he is a much better con man than Kiffin. Clemson has not been truly elite since Trevor Lawrence departed after the 2020 season and that trend will probably continue in 2026. If the Tigers lose four or five regular season games again, the IPTAY faithful will have an existential crisis. While I have no idea what to expect from Clemson over the full season, Swinney should be able to motivate his Tigers to hang tough in the opener. 

Wisconsin +20.5 Notre Dame @ Lambeau Field

The Badgers have struggled in their three seasons under Luke Fickell, posting a 16-20 regular season record (10-17 in Big 10 play). That is by far their worst three year stretch since Barry Alvarez righted the program in the 90's. Despite their overall struggles, the Badgers have continued to put solid defenses on the field. The offense, particularly last season's incarnation, has been the real issue. Check out last year's box score in a victory against Washington. The Badgers won despite having the same number of passing yards by a kicker on a trick play (24) as their nominal quarterbacks had the rest of the game. The quarterback issue should be resolved, at least until an injury strikes and tests their depth, in 2026. Colton Joseph, who passed for over 2500 yards and rushed for more than 1000 yards at Old Dominion last season is the new signal caller. His dual threat capabilities should help the Badgers more than double their paltry per game point totals (12.8). The extra hits from scrambles and designed runs may lead to an injury over the course of Big 10 play, but Joseph and the offense should be productive against a stout Notre Dame defense. As for the Irish, they are widely expected to qualify for the College Football Playoff thanks to their talent and relatively easy schedule. Including Wisconsin, there are ten power conference opponents on the slate, but only one of those ten is a favorite to qualify for the playoff as well (Miami) and only two others that could reasonably be expected to be playoff contenders (BYU and SMU). Notre Dame has not been an underdog in a regular season game since the 2024 opener at Texas A&M. That trend will probably continue throughout 2026. The Irish did not play in the postseason last year as they took their ball and went home after not being invited to the College Football Playoff. Their final two games last season came against power conference corpses Syracuse and Stanford. As such, this will be the best team they have faced since blasting Pitt in mid-November. I think the Badgers will be feisty enough to keep this game within three touchdowns and make Notre Dame sweat in the second half. 

Strangers in the Field: Part XI

The annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas contonues. Read on for my investment portfolio. 

College Football Plays

Over/Under Win Totals

I made 42 college football win total plays (four more than last year). They are listed below, broken down by conference. 

AAC Plays

Charlotte over 2.5 wins ($25 to collect $55)

The 49ers did not win an FBS game last season, but Tim Albin has a strong track record as a head coach. I think this team can be much more competitive in 2026. 

Florida Atlantic over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $81.25)

I was on the Owls last year, and they missed going over their win total by one game. The AAC (or American as they prefer) is in flux with the four best teams (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida, and Tulane) losing their coaches in the last carousel. I think that helps the middle and bottom of the league rise up. 

North Texas under 6.5 wins ($50 to collect $73.80)

The Mean Green were arguably the best team in the conference last season, but lost to Tulane and missed out on a shot at the College Football Playoff. They finished ranked for the first time in school history and twelve games (three more than in any previous season). Their coach, and most of their production are gone and the schedule is tough. North Texas could easily finish 1-3 in the non-conference (Indiana, UNLV, and Texas State) and put themselves in doubt for making a bowl game, much less eclipsing this win total. 

Rice over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $47.75)

The Owls were not very good in Scott Abell's first season, but they won five games. With another year to rep the unique offense, I think the Owls at least maintain their record from last season. 

Temple over 4.5 wins ($100 to collect $145.45)

I bet four overs in the AAC and that quartet have one thing in common, a second year head coach. KC Keeler won two national titles at the FCS level and I expect him to turn Temple around. The Owls won five games in his first season, which was just his fifth losing season in a 32 year head coaching career. I don't think he will have his sixth in 2026. 

ACC Plays

Boston College over 3.5 wins ($500 to collect $976.20)

The Eagles bottomed out last season, winning just a single FBS game, but I think they deployed one of the great 'Moneyball' tactics in building their 2026 roster. Their starting quarterback is projected to be Mason McKenzie, a transfer up from Division II Saginaw Valley State. In general, I think players transferring up perform better than those making lateral or downward moves. They have already proven they can play rather than relying on pedigree or recruiting hype to buoy their reputation. Diego Pavia (New Mexico State to Vanderbilt) and Trinidad Chambliss (Ferris State to Ole Miss) come to mind. I'm not saying McKenzie will be a Heisman candidate, but I think he can do enough to get Boston College to respectability. 

Cal under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.85)

Last year, I backed Cal to go over their win total, and the Bears delivered, winning games in the regular season for the first time since 2019. Now the bar is set at seven wins. With the ACC going to nine conference games (for some teams), the Bears face ten power conference foes in 2026, plus a road game at UNLV. There are not a lot of gimmes on that schedule, so I will take a shot on the under. 

North Carolina over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $43.50)

There was a lot of hype for the Tar Heels last year with the most successful NFL coach of all time taking over. Unfortunately, I did not have the balls to take the under which would have easily cashed. If you squinted though, you could see a team that played better down the stretch. The Tar Heels were just 2-5 in their last seven games, but three of those five losses came by one score. I expect continued improvement and the Tar Heels should contend for a bowl game.

Pittsburgh under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $55.00)

Outside of their run to the ACC title in 2021, Pitt has never won more than eight regular season games under Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers play ten games against power conference opponents in 2026 (nine ACC games a non-conference clash with UCF). There are enough toss-ups on this schedule to make eight wins a challenge. 

SMU under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $55.00)

The Mustangs have a 14-2 conference record in their first two years in the ACC. I think they eclipse that conference loss total this season. SMU opens with a road game against a desperate Florida State team and two weeks later travels to Louisville with the Cardinals on double revenge, having dropped games to the Mustangs the past two seasons. I think there is a good chance they drop both and then they would need to get through the rest of conference play unscathed to go over their win total as they non-conference schedule includes a trip to South Bend to face the Irish. 

Syracuse over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $46.75)

An injury to quarterback Steve Angeli torpedoed Syracuse's season in 2026. Through their first four games, the Orange were 3-1 and averaging nearly 39 points per game (30 per game against FBS opponents). Over their last seven games, they averaged under 13 points per game and were winless. Angeli is back and the Orange should be back in a bowl.

Virginia under 7.5 ($25 to collect $58.75)

2026 was a dream season for Virginia...until the ACC Championship Game. After a 'non-conference' loss to NC State, the Cavs eked out multiple one-score wins to get to Charlotte and nearly grab a College Football Playoff bid. I think their luck regresses in 2026 and like most ACC teams, they face ten power conference foes, which should hamper their win total.

Big 10 Plays

Illinois under 7.5 ($25 to collect $40.65)

The Illini won eight regular season games last year after winning nine in 2024. However, they are 6-1 in one-score regular season game over the past two years. A little regression in that department could keep them home for the holidays. 

Maryland over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $37.50)

This one hurt last year. I had the Terps over 4.5 wins and they started 4-0 and had a double digit lead in the second half of game five. They lost that one and then seven more to close the year and deny me. A lot of talent, icnluding the starting quarterback return. Plus these guys owe me. 

Michigan under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $39.70)

Another team I missed on last year. The Wolverines were non-competitive in losses to Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal, but won the rest to exceed their win total. They upgraded at head coach, but the schedule is much tougher. 

Michigan State over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $37.50)

I thought the Spartans jumped the gun by firing Jonathan Smith, and I don't think Pat Fitzgerald will have long term success in East Lansing. In his last three non-Covid seasons at Northwestern, his teams went 7-29. Still, this is a modest win total and Michigan State was better than their record last season. However, if the Spartans drop their opener to Toledo, I can probably burn this ticket.

Southern Cal under 8.5 ($50 to collect $93.50)

Without Notre Dame, the non-conference schedule is a joke, but there are still enough tricky games on the slate to get Lincoln Riley fired. East coast trips to Indiana, Penn State, Rutgers, and Wisconsin, as well as a cross-town visit to what should be an improved UCLA likely equate to multiple losses. The Trojans do get Ohio State and Oregon in the Coliseum, but are they going to win both?

Big 12 Plays

Arizona under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $44.25)

The Wildcats surprisingly won nine regular season games last season and had they beaten BYU, may have found themselves in the Big 12 Championship Game. Arizona somehow still has quarterback Noah Fifita, but there are too many losses on defense and too many tough road games to get to eight wins. 

BYU under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $55.00)

I'm not buying the BYU hype. The Cougars are 21-3 over the past two regular seasons, but that includes a sterling 7-2 record in close games. I think regression comes for the Cougars and keeps the out of the Big 12 Championship Game. 

Kansas over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

The Jayhawks have endured back-to-back losing seasons after breaking through with a ranked finish in 2023. Their 10-14 cumulative record in that span includes a 2-7 mark in one-score games. Flip a few of those games and the Jayhawks are riding high off four consecutive bowl bids. I think they do enough to get back to the postseason in 2026. 

Oklahoma State under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $40.60)

Initially, I planned on betting the Cowboys over their win total as they transplant the staff and players from last season's North Texas team. However, I expected to bet over 4.5 or maybe 5.5 wins. 6.5 is too rich. The Cowboys are unlikely to go winless in the Big 12 for a third consecutive season, but six wins seems like their ceiling. 

West Virginia over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

At his four previous FBS stops, including his first run at West Virginia, Rich Rodriguez's teams have gone 29-19 in his second season at the helm. West Virginia won just four games last season, but the Mountaineers played better down the stretch (until their finale with Texas Tech). Despite road trips to Texas Tech and Utah, I think they can get to a bowl game. 

CUSA Plays

Jacksonville State under 7.5 wins ($50 to collect $93.50)

I have bet the under on the win total for the Gamecocks the past two seasons. In those two seasons, the Gamecocks have gone 16-8 in the regular season (14-2 in CUSA play) and qualified for both CUSA Championship Games. Eventually, I am going to be right, and I think this is the year. 

Middle Tennessee State over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $81.25)

I have backed the Blue Raiders to go over their win total the past two seasons, and they have combined to finish 6-18 in that span. They opened last season losing by multiple scores to an in-state FCS opponent. If they can't eclipse this modest win total, I will not back them again (as long as Derek Mason remains in charge). 

MAC Plays

Ball State over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $46.75)

I backed Ball State to the over last year because I liked their hire of Mike Uremovich as head coach. The Cardinals were not good last season, but they won enough games to hit the over. Their win total is unchanged from last season and I expect improvement, or maintenance at the very least, in the second year of Uremovich's system. 

Buffalo over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $79.40)

After winning eight games in Pete Lembo's first season in upstate New York, the Bulls dropped their final three games in his second season to finish 5-7. The Bulls have two FCS opponents on the non-conference schedule, so a .500 record in MAC play should get them over this number. 

Massachusetts over 2.5 wins ($400 to collect $635.30)

My second biggest play this season is another northeast dumpster dive. I think the Minutemen have potential because like Buffalo, they also face two FCS opponents in the non-conference. They also face a rebuilding Connecticut team that I expect to take a significant downturn. If they beat both of those FCS teams, they would just need a single conference victory to hit the over. Second year head coach Joe Harasymiak took Maine to the FCS playoffs during his tenure with the Black Bears. Last season's winless campaign will bear fruit as the Minutemen are much more competitive in the MAC.

Western Michigan under 7.5 ($25 to collect $41.65)

The reigning MAC champs have a tough non-conference schedule (Boise State, Michigan, and Rice). If they lose all three of those games, it would take another 7-1 MAC run to hit this over. 

Mountain West Plays

Hawaii under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)

The Rainbow Warriors have made steady improvement under favorite son Timmy Chang, culminating in last season's 8-4 regular season. Hawaii would need to match that win total to hit this win total. Hawaii has two road games against power conference opponents (Arizona State and Stanford), with the Cardinal having revenge on their minds after last year's close loss on the islands. Hawaii's last road win against a power conference opponent came in 2009 against a very bad Washington State squad. Hawaii plays the strongest projected Mountain West conference teams at home (New Mexico, North Dakota State, and UNLV). That could set them up for a conference title, but it also means they have some tricky road contests (Nevada, Wyoming, and UTEP). I think eight wins is the absolute ceiling for this team.

Northern Illinois over 3.5 ($25 to collect $50.00)

The Huskies are not in a great position as they move to a new conference. Head coach (and alum) Thomas Hammock resigned in February to take a position coach job in the NFL and the team has almost no returning production on defense. Still, the Huskies were better than their record (3-9) last season I think they can be competitive in the Mountain West as that league loses some of its stronger teams to the newly constituted Pac-12.

UTEP over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $53.75)

Like Northern Illinois, the Miners are new members of the Mountain West. They have won just five games through head coach Scott Walden's first two seasons. I still believe in Walden who is just 36 years old and had a good run at Austin Peay (four consecutive winning seasons) before coming to El Paso. 

Pac-12 Plays

Colorado State over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

The Pac-12 is doing something unique schedule wise in 2026. The eight conference members play each other and then have a 'flex' game scheduled for the final week of the regular season. The 'flex' game will not count in the conference standings and will be determined by the league the week of the game based on the matchups they feel provide the best opportunity for national exposure and ultimately a College Football Playoff berth. We could potentially see the top two teams in the conference meet three times (regular season, flex game, and conference title game). The book where I made the Pac-12 plays considers the flex game as part of the regular season schedule. Anyway, Colorado State has a new coach (Jim Mora) who turned a moribund program at Connecticut around. The Rams have three non-conference homes games (BYU, Southern Utah, and Wyoming), so a 2-1 start to the season would not surprise me would have them halfway to cashing this ticket. 

Utah State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.85)

Over 18 non-Covid seasons as a head coach, Bronco Mendenhall's teams have won fewer than five regular season games once. That came during his first season at Virginia. The Aggies should return to a bowl game for the second consecutive year under Mendenhall. 

SEC Plays

LSU under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $47.75)

This may be anecdotal, but I feel like Lane Kiffin underperforms when he has expectations. For example, two years ago, his Ole Miss squad was stacked, but the Rebels lost three regular season games, including a home loss to Kentucky, to miss the inaugural expanded College Football Playoff. In his second season at Florida Atlantic, his Owls were nearly a unanimous selection to repeat as Conference USA champs. They finished with a losing record. In 2012, his Southern Cal Trojans were the preseason number one team in the AP Poll. They finished 7-6. This season, LSU has five conference road games and at least three of them present reasonable opportunities for losses (Ole Miss, Auburn, and Tennessee). Their home schedule is also difficult as they host Alabama, Clemson, Texas, and Texas A&M. I don't expect LSU to go 4-8, but 8-4 seems like a solid bet. 

Texas under 9.5 wins ($50 to collect $90.00)

I expect the Longhorns to be better in 2026 than they were in 2025, but Texas was lucky to finish 9-3 last season. They needed overtime to outlast two of the worst teams in the conference (Kentucky and Mississippi State) on the road and they were fortunate to get Oklahoma in John Mateer's first game back from his hand injury. As the league is quick to inform you, the SEC has added a ninth conference game in 2026. With Ohio State on the non-conference slate, the Longhorns face ten power conference teams in 2026. Five of those games, including the annual neutral site battle with Oklahoma, are away from Austin. The grind of the SEC plus the battle with Ohio State will hand the Longhorns three losses in 2026. 

Texas A&M under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $47.75)

The Aggies had perhaps the easiest SEC schedule in history last season and parlayed that, plus a tight win at Notre Dame, to a College Football Playoff appearance. The schedule stiffens in 2026 and don't forget the Aggies had an incredible ten players taken in April's NFL Draft. 

Vanderbilt under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $56.25)

Off the best season in school history, Vanderbilt has nowhere to go but down. The Commodores have gone 16-8 over the past two regular seasons, but they won just nine games in Clark Lea's first three years in Nashville. A lot of the improvement was driven by quarterback Diego Pavia, and no matter the recruiting pedigree of his replacements, his production will not be duplicated in 2026. Remember, despite the improvement over the past two seasons, Vanderbilt still lost to Georgia State in 2024. The Commodores should open with a pair of victories against Austin Peay and Delaware, but there are no guaranteed wins beyond that. 

Sun Belt Plays

Coastal Carolina under 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $57.50)

Tim Beck, who replaced Jamey Chadwell as head coach after he took the Liberty job was fired by the Chanticleers despite three bowl bids in three seasons under his guidance. To replace him, Coastal brought over Ryan Beard from Missouri State. Beard will have his work cut out for him as the Chanticleers have a challenging non-conference slate (West Virginia, Delaware, and Liberty) and could be 1-3 by the time Sun Belt play rolls around. This team is probably sixth in the pecking order in the Sun Belt East, ahead of only Georgia State. I think they dip below five wins for the first time since their first season of FBS play (2017). 

Georgia Southern over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.15)

One thing Clay Helton has done in Stateboro is raise the floor. After Willie Fritz departed for Tulane, the Eagles eked out bowl bids in three of the next six seasons, but they also finished with two wins (2017) and three wins (2021) in a couple of seasons. The Eagles have won either six or eight regular season games in all four of Helton's seasons. Their Sun Belt record is a perfectly average 16-16 in that span. I expect more of the same in 2026. 

Louisiana-Lafayette under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)

The Ragin's Cajuns have dipped since the heights they reached under Billy Napier in the early 2020s, but they are still a consistent bowl team in the Sun Belt. However, expecting eight wins is a little much. Under alum Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana-Lafayette has won six, six, ten, and six regular seasons games. Ten wins looks like the outlier to me. The Ragin' Cajuns only have one definitive loss on the schedule (at Southern Cal), but two other non-conference games against AAC teams (Charlotte and UAB) could turn out to be tougher than they appear when forecasting in the preseason. Someone has to win the Sun Belt West, but I wouldn't just assume the Ragin' Cajuns are the best team in the division.

Louisiana-Monroe over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $93.50)

The second half of the season has not been kind to the Warhawks in head coach Bryant Vincent's two years in charge. In 2024, Louisiana-Monroe began the year 5-1 with victories against defending Sun Belt champ Troy and the league's other power James Madison. They lost their final six games to miss out on a bowl bid. Last season, they began the year 3-1, but dropped their last eight. I don't know if they can get to a bowl in 2026, but they are competent enough to win half as many as they lose.

Troy under 6.5 wins ($50 to collect $115.00)

Despite appearing in the Sun Belt Championship Game last season, the Trojans were actually outgained by their Sun Belt opponents on a per play basis. That is usually not a recipe for repeating. The Trojans have two tough non-conference road games (Missouri and Utah State) and I do not expect them to finish better than .500 in Sun Belt play.

College Football Futures

Temple to win AAC ($10 to collect $410.00)

There is a power vacuum in the AAC with the four best teams changing coaches after last season (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida, and Tulane). I figure the Owls, with a two-time FCS champion head coach are as good a long shot as any.

Toledo to win MAC ($10 to collect $46.00)

Toledo last their head coach who had been in the position for a decade, but may have upgraded at the position. Mike Jacobs has been successful at Division II (Notre Dame and Lenoir-Rhyne) and FCS (Mercer). Asking him to win the title in his first season at the school might be asking a lot, but I expect the Rockets to be in the race until season's end. 

Air Force to win Mountain West ($10 to collect $60.00)

The only thing missing from Troy Calhoun's resume at the Air Force Academy is a conference title. I think that has a great shot to change in 2026.

College Football Parlay ($10 to collect $137.95 - all must hit)

August 29

NC State +5.5 Virginia

I already gave my thoughts on want I expect to be regression at Virginia. NC State seems like they are in a great position to threaten to make their first ACC Championship Game, only to disappoint their long suffering fans. 

September 3 

Wake Forest moneyline over Akron

A moneyline bet on my alma mater. What could possible go wrong?

September 4

Toledo +10.5 Michigan State

Both schools have new coaches and I expect Toledo to keep this one within a touchdown. 

September 5

Liberty +6.5 James Madison

Week 1 is missing a huge marque game, so keep an eye on this in-state Group of 6 matchup. I like the Flames to beat one of last season's College Foobtall Playoff participants.

September 6

Wisconsin +20.5 vs Notre Dame @ Lambeau Field

The Badgers were awful on offense last season, but significantly upgraded at quarterback by grabbing Colton Joseph from Old Dominion. Notre Dame is elite and a national title contender, but they won't win by three touchdowns. 

MLB Futures Parlay ($10 to collect $35.40 - all must hit)

Atlanta to win NL East

LA to win NL West

Milwaukee to win NL Central

Tampa Bay to win AL East

Just needed something to watch for the next month until football starts. Can all four teams hold onto their division leads? Probably not. 

Thanks for reading my annual Vegas trip summary. The season gets underway in a little less than a month with Week Zero. There won't be enough games for spread picks that weekend, but I'll be back with weekly picks shortly after that Saturday appetizer. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2025 Power Four

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Four.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2025 ACC standings.

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

Miami did not win the ACC, but they were by most advanced statistics, the best team in the conference. They justified that esteem by winning three games in the CFP and nearly winning the school's first national title since 2001. In the ACC Championship Game, the fourth and sixth ranked teams in 1HPD met with the sixth ranked team winning the title. Two former NFL head coaches brought up the rear of the 1HPD rankings, with two Bills, Belichick and O'Brien finishing sixteenth and seventeenth respectively. 

Big 10

The 2025 Big 10 standings. 

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in Indianapolis for the Big 10 title and the game was decided by a mere three points. Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon dominated their conference foes. Each finished with a 1HPD in excess of 100. The other five teams to finish in the black in 1HPD (Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Nebraska, and Southern Cal) finished with a combined 1HPD of 121. 

Big 12 

The 2025 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Texas Tech was the best team in the Big 12 in 2025 and the Red Raiders topped the 1HPD rankings and dominated BYU in the conference title game. The Cougars ranked a distant seventh in 1HPD, but finished 3-0 in one-score conference games to finish in the runner up spot in the regular season. 

SEC

The 2025 SEC standings.

1HPD in SEC play (title game excluded). 

Alabama topped a compressed 1HPD ranking in the SEC, but was dominated by the fourth ranked team in the SEC Championship Game. 124 points separated top ranked Alabama from sixteenth place Kentucky in 1HPD. That was easily the lowest of the four power conferences. The ACC was next with 149 points separating Miami and Boston College, while 240 points separated in-state rivals Indiana and Purdue in the Big 10, and a whopping 246 points separated Texas Tech and West Virginia in the Big 12. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Four conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

If this list looks longer than usual, your eyes are not deceiving you. I began the 1HPD posts in 2020 and over the previous six seasons (2019-2024), an average of 4.7 power conference teams overachieved by at least .200 relative to their expected record based on 1HPD. Texas A&M was the largest power conference overachiever in 2025. The Aggies led at the half in six of their eight SEC games, but led by more than ten points just once. They also trailed by four touchdowns at halftime in a game they ended up winning. BYU trailed at the half in four of the nine Big 12 games, and led by double digits at halftime just twice, but still managed to trek through the conference slate with just one loss. Texas trailed at the half five times in their eight SEC games and and finished with a negative 1HPD, but still finished with a winning conference record. Georgia was tied or trailing at the half five times in SEC play. The Bulldogs did at least finish with a positive 1HPD en route to another SEC title. Southern Cal trailed at the half in five of their nine Big 10 games. Lincoln Riley's seat would be exponentially hotter had they not come back to win several of those games. Minnesota also trailed at halftime in five of their Big 10 games and were losing at halftime by at least 18 points in three of those five. Michigan only trailed at halftime in two of their Big 10 games, but the Wolverines never led by more than eleven points at halftime either. Georgia Tech was tied or trailing at the half in five of their eight ACC games, including twice by double digits. Vanderbilt was tied at the half in three of their eight SEC games and trailed at halftime in two others. Ole Miss only trailed at halftime once in SEC play, but the Rebels did not put teams away in the first half. They never led by more than twelve points at halftime and were leading by four points or less on three occasions. Similarly, Virginia also trailed at the half just once in ACC play, but were tied at halftime three other times. 

And now the underachievers. 

The underachievers list is also longer than usual (5.2 power conference teams underachieved on average by at least .200 between 2019 and 2024). Arkansas is one of the best teams to ever go winless in conference play (hang the banner). The Razorbacks led at the half three times in SEC play and were tied at halftime in another. As previously mentioned, South Carolina frittered away a 27 point halftime lead against Texas A&M, but even if we remove that game, the Gamecocks were competitive all season. They were leading or within one score at halftime in all their conference games except one. Auburn was leading or tied at the half in four of their eight SEC games, but managed just a single conference win. The SEC trio of Arkansas, South Carolina, and Auburn combined to finish an uncanny 0-13 in one-score SEC games! Maryland only held a halftime lead in two of their nine Big 10 games, but both leads were by double digits and the Terps trailed by one score at halftime on four occasions. Florida State was leading or within a touchdown at halftime in six of their eight ACC games. Oklahoma State only led at halftime in one of the Big 12 games, but their 1HPD was not befitting a team that finished winless in conference play. Mississippi State only led at halftime once in SEC play, but they were tied or within a touchdown at the half on four other occasions. Another MSU, Michigan State also led at the half just once in conference play. However, the Spartans were trailing by a touchdown or less in four of their nine Big 10 games. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will almost be time for the season to start. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2025 Group of Five

After a bit of a hiatus, we return to our review of the 2025 college football season.This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2025 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The teams ranked first and third in 1HPD made the AAC Championship Game with the third ranked team pulling off a minor upset on their way to a College Football Playoff bid. At the other end of the standings, Charlotte did not lead at the half in any conference game as they finished 0-8 with each loss coming by at least eleven points.

Conference USA

The 2025 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded).

The second and third ranked teams in 1HPD met in the Conference USA Championship Game. Meanwhile, the team that finished first in 1HPD had a losing conference record (more on them later). 

Mid-American

The 2025 MAC standings.

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded).

Toledo dominated their MAC brethren, leading by double digits at the half in five of their eight conference games, but blew close games to Western Michigan and Bowling Green. With no divisions and some funky tiebreakers, Toledo lost out on a shot at the MAC Championship Game. Instead, the teams ranked fourth and fifth in 1HPD met up in the title game with the fourth ranked team prevailing. At the bottom of the standings, Massachusetts trailed by double digits in six of their eight MAC games on their way to a winless conference record with all but one loss coming by at least eighteen points. 

Mountain West

The 2025 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

San Diego State and New Mexico finished first and second in the league in 1HPD and also finished tied for first in the conference standings (with UNLV and Boise State). Tiebreaker procedures put the Rebels and Broncos in the title game with the Broncos winning their third consecutive Mountain West title against the Rebels. There is good news for UNLV fans though. The Broncos are off to the reconstituted Pac-12 and cannot beat the Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game for a fourth consecutive season in 2026. 

Sun Belt

The 2025 Sun Belt standings.

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

The Sun Belt remains the only conference to utilize divisions and that sorting mechanism allowed a team ranked ninth in 1HPD to qualify for the conference title game. Surprisingly, James Madison, a College Football Playoff participant did not finish first in 1HPD. Old Dominion was more dominant in Sun Belt play, leading by twenty points or more at halftime in four of their eight conference games. Meanwhile, James Madison trailed at the half in two of their Sun Belt games and led by ten points or less in four others. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Navy lost just once in AAC play and nearly qualified for the conference title game despite trailing at halftime in three of their conference games, including twice by double digits. Over in the Sun Belt, Troy qualified for the conference title game despite being outscored in the first half over the course of the conference schedule. The Trojans trailed by double digits at the half in three of their conference games and led by double digits at the half just once in Sun Belt action. Coastal Carolina trailed at the half in six of their eight league games, including five times by at least a touchdown, yet still managed to finish with a winning conference record. James Madison trailed at the half in just two of their eight Sun Belt games, but were not nearly as dominant as their undefeated record would indicate. Western Michigan won the MAC for the first time since 2016, but trailed at the half three times in conference play. Finally, Kennesaw State won Conference USA in just their second year as an FBS program. While they trailed at halftime just once in conference play, they they were also tied at the half or winning by less than a touchdown on three other occasions. 

And now the underachievers. 

Liberty posted the best 1HPD of any Conference USA team, but finished with a losing conference record. The Flames held double digit leads at the half in four of their eight conference games, and only trailed at halftime once in conference play. Georgia State finished winless in Sun Belt play, but were either tied or winning at the half in three of their eight conference games. Texas State finished with a losing record in Sun Belt play despite leading at the half five times, including three times by double digits. Finally, in their MAC swan song, Northern Illinois finished with two MAC wins despite holding a halftime lead three times in conference play. The Huskies were also tied or within a field goal three other times in MAC play. 

In two week, we'll examine how power conference teams performed in 1HPD. 

2025 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Sun Belt

Last week we looked at how Sun Belt teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2025 Sun Belt standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Sun Belt teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary standard to determine if a team over or underachieved relative to their APR. By that standard, Arkansas State overachieved and Georgia State underachieved. The Red Wolves and Panthers also over and underachieved when compared to their performances in Net YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. 

The Champs Are Here

Division I football officially split into I-A and I-AA in 1978. The nomenclature has changed. I-A is now known as the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and I-AA is known as the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). In the nearly half century since the split, the top FCS programs have 'graduated' to the FBS ranks, with North Dakota State serving as the latest example. The Bison have been on a dynastic run, winning the FCS title ten times in the past fifteen seasons. With that in mind, I wanted to find out how many FCS champions will be playing in the FBS in 2026. 

The FCS has crowned 48 champions since 1978. 23 individual schools have won those 48 titles. The 23 schools are listed chronologically below based on the year they won their first FCS title. If a school won multiple titles, the other championship years are also listed. Those schools that will be playing at the FBS level in 2026 are color coded blue. 

Eleven of the 23 schools to win FCS titles will be playing at the FBS level in 2026. Those eleven schools have combined to win 29 of the 48 FCS titles. In addition, of the ten schools to win multiple FCS titles, five are playing in the FBS. The FCS really is sending its best and brightest to the FBS. Five of the eleven teams to make the jump (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Marshall, and Louisiana-Monroe or Northeast Louisiana as they were known previously) currently play in the Sun Belt and another (Western Kentucky) is a former Sun Belt member. 

Finally, you may notice that Florida A&M is shaded a different color. While the Rattlers are current denizens of the Southwestern Athletic Conference in FCS, they attempted to make a go of it in FBS in 2004. The move lasted just one season and is not greatly remembered by most college football fans. However, I would highly recommend Bill Connelly's retrospective on the team if you have any interest in HBCU football. 

Thanks for reading as we conclude yet another season of YPP and APR recaps. Week Zero is thirteen weeks from Saturday. Thats still a quarter of the year, but its much closer than it was when we started these write ups. We'll be taking about a month break, but fear not, the First Half Point Differential recaps will drop in early July. Then I'll take my annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas to make some futures bets and before you know it, we'll be in full countdown mode. Enjoy the early part of summer and we'll see you after the 4th. 

2025 Yards Per Play: Sun Belt

Hard to believe, but have come to our last set of conference reviews. We are staying in the south as we check in on the Sun Belt. 

Here are the 2025 Sun Belt standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Sun Belt team. This includes conference play only with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2025 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Seven Sun Belt teams (half the conference) saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on Net YPP. Troy, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Arkansas State overachieved, while Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, and Georgia State underachieved. Troy was solid in close games (2-0 in one-score Sun Belt games), but the reason the Trojans made a surprise run to the Sun Belt Championship Game was their remarkable ability to keep conference opponents out of the end zone. Their eight Sun Belt foes made 33 trips into the red zone, but came away with touchdowns just 14 times in those trips (42%). Coastal Carolina was just 1-1 in one-score conference games, but the Chanticleers had the best in-conference turnover margin (+9) and were elite at getting their opponents off the field on fourth down. Sun Belt teams went for it on fourth down 22 times against the boys from Conway, but only kept their drive going eight times (36%). Louisiana-Lafayette was 4-0 in one-score Sun Belt games, winning their final three games by a combined ten point to attain bowl eligibility. Arkansas State was just 3-2 in one-score Sun Belt games, but all three of those close wins came by exactly one point. For the underachievers, Louisiana-Monroe lost the only one-score Sun Belt game they played, but also had the second worst in-conference turnover margin (-9) and struggled converting fourth downs (8 of 22 in conference play). Texas State was 0-4 in one-score Sun Belt games as the Bobcats failed to live up to their lofty preseason hype. Finally, Georgia State finished 0-2 in one-score Sun Belt games and also struggled converting fourth downs (8 of 23 in conference play). 

Sorting the Over and Underachievers

A lot of teams in the Sun Belt in 2025 saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on Net YPP. Not only did seven teams over or underachieve by at least .200, five over or underachieved by at least .300. Teams that overachieve by at least .200 tend to regress the next season while those that underachieve by .200 tend to improve. Nothing groundbreaking there. Simple regression to the mean. That of course, is in the aggregate. Since over or underachieving by .300 is extreme, I wanted to conduct a more microanalysis and see what might be reasonable expectations for this quintet of Sun Belt teams, and Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are located in the south and may be spiritually considered a Sun Belt team, but they were also the only other non-power conference team to see their actual record differ from their expected record based on Net YPP by at least .300. In the 21 seasons I have been tracking Net YPP, 36 non-power teams have exceeded their expected record by .300 and 38 have underachieved by at least .300. I grouped those teams of over and underachievers into buckets based on how many conference games they won or lost and looked at how they performed the following season. To me, this makes much more sense when prospecting how Jacksonville State might perform in 2026. The Gamecocks finished 7-1 in Conference USA in 2025 and should be compared to other teams that finished with similar records, not teams that finished in the middle of their respective conferences. 

We'll start with the overachievers. The table below lists all non-power teams that exceeded their expected record based on Net YPP by at least .300 and finished with exactly one conference loss. Their follow-up season is also included along with the aggregate record of the teams the following season. 

The nine teams most similar to Jacksonville State saw their conference winning percentage decline by .271 (a little over two wins in an eight game conference schedule). Gamecock fans should be prepared for perhaps their worst season as an FBS program. However, decline is not certain as Boise State and Cincinnati were able to buck the trend in back-to-back seasons. 

Next up are the overachievers most comparable to Troy (two conference losses). The Trojans played in the Sun Belt Championship Game for the third time in four seasons, but were not in the same class as the Jon Sumrall coached teams of 2022 and 2023. 

For two loss teams, the decline was more significant. Overall, the 14 teams declined by .312 in conference winning percentage (2.5 wins over an eight game conference schedule). Only one team improved and half of the cohort finished with a losing conference record the next season.

Closing out our overachievers are the teams most similar to Coastal Carolina (three conference losses). The Chanticleers played in their sixth consecutive bowl game, but fired their coach anyway.

Its impossible to have a lot of confidence based on a sample size of two teams. Arkansas State maintained a winning record in their follow-up campaign, while Buffalo dropped two games in the standings. I feel pretty confident Jacksonville State and Troy will not match the heights they reached in 2025, but Coastal Carolina is a true wild card. I would not be shocked if the Chanticleers competed for a bid to the Sun Belt Championship Game or finished in the basement of the Sun Belt East. 

Now we move to the underachievers. The table below lists all non-power teams that underachieved relative to expected record based on Net YPP by at least .300 and finished winless in conference play (as Georgia State did in 2025). Their follow-up season is also included along with the aggregate record of the teams the following season. 

The good news for Georgia State and Dell McGee is the Panthers are unlikely to finish winless in the Sun Belt. Of course, unlikely does not mean impossible. The Panthers need only look to their own history to find an example of a winless team that failed to improve despite solid peripherals. Even when accounting for the two teams that remained winless, this group of losers improved by roughly three wins in an eight game conference season. Five of 13 finished with at least a .500 conference record and one (Fresno State) played in their conference title game the following season. 

Next up are the underachievers most comparable to Louisiana-Monroe (one conference win). The Warhawks began Sun Belt play with a victory against Arkansas State, but lost their final seven Sun Belt games after dropping their last five Sun Belt games in 2024. 

Surprisingly, the one win teams finished with a marginally worse aggregate record the next season than the winless teams. Only one team got worse, but six of the nine still finished with a losing conference record. 

Closing out our underachievers are the teams most similar to Texas State (three conference wins). The Bobcats won three Sun Belt games in a row to close the season (all by double digits) after losing their first five conference games. 

As with the three-loss teams, there is a sample size issue with the three-win teams. If you squint though, you can see a lot of Florida Atlantic in Texas State. The Owls were led by a young, offensive minded coach and were coming off a season where they struggled in close games (0-4 in one-score conference games). The Owls rebounded to win Conference USA in 2019. Can the Bobcats do the same in the reconstituted Pac-12 in 2026?

I would expect Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Texas State to all improve in 2026. The Panthers and Warhawks probably won't be playing in bowl games, but I think they can both get close. Meanwhile, despite the small sample size for similar three-win teams, the Bobcats bad luck in 2025 probably served to keep head coach GJ Kinne around for an extra year. A run to the Pac-12 Championship Game would not surprise me.