The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

Back to back winning weeks have us above water for the first time all year. Still not quite at the break even mark (.524), but pretty close. I didn't see a lot of games I liked this week, so tread lightly.         

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 28-26-2

Charlotte +10 Tulane

My hands are quivering as a type this, but I think Charlotte might be live to not only cover, but win outright against Tulane. Hear me out. I have had it out for Tulane ever since they followed up their fantastic hires of Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall with the uninspired hire of Will Hall. Tulane's performance this season has done nothing to move me off those priors. The Green Wave are 3-4 with tight home wins against teams they have more talent than (South Alabama and Southern Miss) and a multi-score home win fueled mostly by turnovers against Memphis. However, they are 0-3 on the road which continues a trend Hall started at Southern Miss. Under his tutelage, the Golden Eagles were 5-19 straight up on the road. They were road favorites just two times, posting a 1-1 ATS mark. However, this is by far the most points a team coached by Will Hall has laid on the road. While Tulane comes into this game on a short week, Charlotte had last week off after winning their first game of the season at Temple two weeks ago. In that game, the 49ers started Conner Harrell for the second time on the season and he played well, avoiding turnovers that limited his predecessor Cole Gonzales. Charlotte is putrid on defense, but I think they score enough to keep this one close. 

UAB +8 South Florida

The Bulls and Blazers both enter this game off byes as they look to close the season strong and qualify for bowl games. UAB is still technically in the conference race at 2-1, but they are clearly below the current trio at the top of the standings (Memphis, North Texas, and UTSA). I know Army is technically up there too, but the Black Knights have been getting away with it. If they beat Memphis this week, we'll consider them legitimate contenders. But I digress. UAB needs two more wins to qualify for their first bowl game since 2022. The Blazers were bowl eligible in the first six seasons since they restarted the program in 2017 under Bill Clark and later Bryant Vincent. The team was mostly a joke under Trent Dilfer, but have been much more competitive under Alex Mortensen who took over midway through last season. The Blazers are 6-7 straight up under Mortensen and after only winning nine games in two and a half seasons under Dilfer. Despite facing two of the better offenses in the American through their first three conference games (Memphis and Navy), the Blazers have played well defensively, holding conference foes under five yards per play. I don't expect South Florida to do a great deal of damage against the solid UAB defense. The Bulls have been held below thirty points against every FBS opponent they have faced and have scored fewer than twenty points on three occasions. This feels like a low-scoring ugly game with a lot of punts and a dearth of touchdowns. Back the team getting more than a touchdown in this spot. 

Bowling Green +13 Western Michigan

Western Michigan is 5-3 and has a shot to play for its second consecutive MAC title in about five weeks. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 2-6 and another loss away from starting the Eddie George era with back to back losing seasons. However, if you squint, you can see the Falcons have improved significantly since their 0-4 start. Bowling Green faced two power conference opponents (Nebraska and Iowa State) and the current top ranked team in FCS (Tarleton State) in their first three games and scored 27 combined points. They followed that up with a competitive home loss to South Florida where they still only managed six points. For those scoring at home, the Falcons had scored 33 total points in their first four games. Since the start of MAC play, the Falcons have scored at least 24 points in each game and are averaging just over 29 points per game! Western Michigan is a MAC team last I checked, and one that is not as good, especially on defense, as the one that won the MAC last season. Bowling Green has not lost a game to a non-power conference opponent by more than eight points this season. I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. 

Temple +6 East Carolina

Temple beat South Florida four weeks ago to improve to 2-3 and position themselves for a bowl game. Two home losses as a favorite later and a bowl game is very much in doubt. The Owls have played better than their 2-5 record and have been a bit unfortunate. They are 1-3 in one-score games and have actually outgained their three conference opponents by almost two yards per play. Meanwhile, East Carolina has struggled offensively after losing last year's starting quarterback, Katin Houser, to the transfer portal. After averaging over thirty points per game against FBS competition last season, the Pirates are averaging just over 22 points per game against FBS opponents this season. KC Keeler is 9-5 ATS as an FBS coach at Sam Houston State and Temple. His teams thrive in this role and expect them to play much better off the bye and keep this one close. 

Colorado State +6.5 Utah State

This is the ultimate battle of the resistible force versus the movable object. Colorado State has not been able to stop a nose bleed defensively, permitting an astounding nine yards per play in their three Pac-12 games. In their past five games overall, the Rams have allowed 271 total points! They did manage to win their most recent affair against San Diego State though to snap a four game skid. Quarterback Hauss Hejny returned last week against the Aztecs and accounted for five touchdowns and over 400 total yards. The Rams will likely need his heroics again even though the defense is poised to have their best showing in nearly two months. Utah State has not scored more than 21 points in any game this season and are averaging just under fifteen points per game for the year. They lost their opener to an FCS team and the two teams they managed to vanquish this season (Troy and Washington State) own a combined two FBS wins between them. Utah State should put up their best offensive performance of the season, but even if they manage to win this game outright, I don't see how the margin is a touchdown or more. Back the Rams despite their massive defensive issues. 

Clemson +6 Florida State

The Seminoles and Tigers enter this game with a combined seven losses! A few years ago, this game would have been an ABC primetime clash. Now they are relegated to the ACC Network. Clemson has dominated this series in the past decade, winning nine of the past ten. Several of those wins were by elite Clemson teams, but even post 2020, the Tigers are 4-1 against the Seminoles, winning twice in Tallahassee. In face, the Seminoles have not beaten the Tigers in Tallahassee since 2014. Do you feel comfortable laying nearly a touchdown with Florida State? Their defense has allowed nearly seven yards per play to ACC opponents (worst in the conference). They played well in their Super Bowl two weeks ago against Miami, but I think this is too many points against a Clemson team that still plays good (although not elite) defense. 

San Diego State -2.5 Washington State

Allow me to begin by saying that San Diego State is not a good football team. The Aztecs have followed up an impressive 9-4 campaign by starting 3-5 and leaving themselves little margin for error to get back to a bowl game. However, four of the five defeats have come to teams that are currently in position to play in their respective conference championship games (James Madison, Oregon State, Toledo, and UCLA). The Aztecs are also 3-1 at home and have won nine of ten at home in Snapdragon Stadium over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Washington State is winless on the road and winless against FBS opponents in Kirby Moore's first season on the Palouse. The Cougars have beaten Duquesne, but have struggled to score points against FBS competition, averaging under fifteen points per game against teams outside of the Dukes. This is the ninth consecutive game for both teams with a bye looming next week. At 1-7, Washington State is merely playing for pride while San Diego State still has a chance at a bowl game. I like the Aztecs to cover this microscopic number. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

We had a solid 4-2-1 week with both of our losses coming via the hook (and one in overtime). Oh, what could have been. We'll take it though.         

Last Week: 4-2-1

Overall: 23-24-2

California +20 SMU

The Golden Bears are an ugly dog and there are a lot of rumors swirling around the program regarding their star quarterback so this pick may age like box wine left out in the sun, but I like to dumpster dive sometimes. Let's go over the reasons I think Cal could keep this within three touchdowns. For starters, this is the bottom of the market for Cal. The Golden Bears were throttled at home in a great spot against Wake Forest last week. The Demon Deacons scored the first 41 points in that game en route to an easy win and cover in Berkeley. Secondly, SMU has low-key struggled (relatively) on offense this season. In their first season in the ACC (2024), the Mustangs averaged 38.2 points per game against power conference opponents. Last season, they averaged 32.5 points per game against power conference opponents. This season, they are only averaging 26.5 points per game in their four contests against power conference opponents. If the Mustangs struggle to get to thirty points, a lone Cal touchdown could be enough for them to cover this big number. Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi may end up being a one and done head coach based on how the last five games of the season shake out for the Bears, but I think they awake from hibernation and give a better effort this week. 

Toledo -3 Western Michigan

This game will go a long way toward determining the participants in the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan is unbeaten in MAC play, having won seven in a row in league play since losing to Miami last season. The defending MAC champs should be favored in their final four conference games, so an unbeaten MAC regular season is on the table if they can upset the Rockets. Meanwhile, this is a must win spot for Toledo. The Rockets lost at home to Buffalo as massive favorites two weeks ago and still have a trip to Ohio remaining on the schedule, so a loss here would make them underdogs to even reach Detroit on the first weekend in December. Outside of their inexplicable loss to Buffalo, Toledo has played better than Western Michigan against a marginally more difficult schedule. Western Michigan wants to keep the ball on the ground (they threw eight passes last week and have run the ball nearly 63% of the time in 2026), but Toledo should be able to keep them in check. I like the Rockets to win and cover in this spot. 

Central Michigan +2.5 Miami

This game seems like it should be played on a Tuesday or Wednesday night, but we are still a week or so away from November and the start of MACtion. Miami has played in the past three MAC Championship Games, and while the Redhawks are still technically alive in the conference race, that is more a function of their schedule rather than their team strength. The Redhawks have faced Akron (the worst MAC team outside of Sacramento State), Massachusetts (in their first game without Pop Watson at quarterback), and Bowling Green (who they lost to). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has also faced Akron, but their other two conference games have come against a pair of teams that are a combined 10-4 on the season (6-0 in MAC play) in Ohio and Western Michigan. Miami is also dealing with quarterback injuries and you can see it in their passing stats. In their past two games, the Redhawks have completed 14 of 36 passes (39%) for 160 yards (4.4 yards per pass). They have also allowed four sacks in those games, losing an additional thirty yards in the process. Add it all up and the Redhawks have dropped back to pass 40 times in the past two weeks and have netted 130 yards (3.3 yards per pass). Their passing attack is the apocryphal 'three yards and a cloud of dust'. They won both those games because they were +4 in turnovers. Being favored on the road while having quarterback issues against a team that has played a more difficult schedule is the recipe for an outright underdog win. 

Boston College +4 Georgia Tech

As I mentioned last week, Boston College has quietly been solid defensively. After allowing nearly 33 points per game last season, the Eagles are allowing just 23 points per game this season and have not allowed more than 25 points in any game since their opener at Cincinnati. Division II transfer quarterback Mason McKenzie also had his best game as a passer last week against Pitt when the former Saginaw Valley State player threw for 295 yards and averaged over ten yards per pass. I expect him to have another solid game against a weak Georgia Tech defense. Consider this. After a solid defensive performance against Colorado in their opener, the Yellow Jackets allowed 45 points to Tennessee. The Vols have averaged 22.8 points per game in their other contests against power four teams. They allowed 34 points to Stanford. The Cardinal have averaged under six points per game in their other games against power four teams. The Yellow Jackets did hold Duke below their average against power conference opponents (scored 25 and averaged 28.7 in their other power conference games), but last week, Virginia Tech moved the ball at will and accumulated 34 points after averaging 27.3 points per game in their other power conference contests. I think Boston College could score thirty for the first time this season. The Yellow Jackets have also performed poorly as a home favorite under head coach Brent Key. They are 5-8 ATS with six outright losses. I think Boston College could get their fourth win of the season on Saturday and cash their preseason win total of 3.5. 

Vanderbilt +11 Kentucky

Kentucky has won five in a row, with four of those wins coming against SEC opponents. Since the SEC expanded in 1992, the Wildcats have never finished with more than five SEC wins. Obviously, if Kentucky performs as the betting market predicts, they will equal that conference win mark before Halloween. After conference clashes with Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma, this should be a cakewalk right? As the great Lee Corso might say, 'Not so fast, my friend'. Since 2010, these teams have faced off eight times in Lexington. Kentucky has entered that game as a double digit favorite six times. They have covered once in that role and have lost outright twice, including the past two meetings. Vanderbilt's home loss to Arkansas last week likely cost them a shot at a bowl game, but they are still a dangerous team, covering in both of their road games this season. Under Clark Lea, they are 16-8-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 8-1-1 since 2024. Kentucky has some glossy point totals on their resume, but if we strip out their overtime scores against South Carolina and LSU, they are averaging 24.6 points per game in SEC play. If the Commodores can score a couple of touchdowns, they should be able to cover this number. 

Syracuse +8 North Carolina

North Carolina is a contender in the ACC conference race. That statement may be misleading and dishonest, but it is also technically true. Off back to back conference wins, the Tar Heels are 2-1 in the ACC, matching last season's conference and overall win total at the season's midpoint. Their run of contention probably ends next week when they host Miami, but then again, Mario Cristobal is always good for at least one stinker each season. But before the Tar Heels can get hyped to host the likely number one team in the country, they must take care of business against a Syracuse team that has lost eleven straight conference games under head coach Fran Brown. While the losses have mounted this season, Syracuse has been kept things close for the most part. Three of their four defeats have come by one possession and they have been outscored by 28 total points in those games. By contrast, all three of North Carolina's FBS wins have come by five points or less. The Tar Heels have played well in the clutch, but their offense is limited and they have not been able to get margin on teams. They have played fifteen games against power conference opponents under Bill Belichick, and have averaged just over 18 points per game in those contests, never eclipsing 27 points. This game should be played in the high teens or low twenties. I would be shocked if North Carolina scores more than 24 points in this game. In addition, North Carolina's success this season has come as a betting underdog. They have been underdogs in all five of their FBS games (won three outright and covered in four). This marks just the second time they have been favored against a power conference opponent under Belichick (previous time was last season against Stanford against whom they did not cover). I expect a low scoring somewhat boring game that Syracuse finds a way to yack up. 

UTSA -2.5 Tulane

Perhaps I need to cut Tulane a break and come off of my preseason priors when evaluating their performance this season. The Green Wave are 3-3 and are coming off a victory against league favorite Memphis. However, if you take a closer look at the box score, you see the Green Wave benefitted from six Memphis turnovers, including a pick-six that dramatically altered the flow and script of the game. I thought Tulane made a bad hire in Will Hall, a coach that performed poorly as the head man at Southern Miss (14-30 overall record). After knocking it out of the park with their last two hires (Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall), I felt the hire was uninspired and a great way to send Tulane back to the wasteland of college football, a place they occupied for most of the 21st century. A turnover fueled victory against a coach with a penchant for losing as a favorite (Charles Huff lost 23 regular season games as the head coach at Marshall and Southern Miss between 2021 and 2025 and 12 of those losses came as a betting favorite) does not dissuade me from that opinion. At 3-0 in the conference, UTSA is in the driver's seat for a spot in the American Championship Game, and potentially a darkhorse shot at the College Football Playoff. A bye for the Roadrunners is on the horizon, so they should be able to give maximum effort and beat the Green Wave by more than a field goal. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

Another losing week makes it four out of six in the red. After this week, we will be roughly halfway through the season. Time to turn this thing around.        

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 19-22-1

Indiana +3.5 Ohio State

The Hoosiers have looked mortal in their two games against legitimate competition in 2026. They held off Northwestern three weeks ago and then last week needed a fourth quarter rally to beat Nebraska last week. However, their underlying performance has still been excellent. Against the their three Big 10 opponents (the aforementioned foes and woebegone Rutgers), the Hoosiers have averaged 2.72 more yards per play. By contrast, Ohio State has faced Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland, and outgained those three teams by 2.10 yards per play. Nebraska and Northwestern both seem to be pretty good, while Illinois and Maryland are bad and worse. Curt Cignetti has lost two homes games as an FBS head coach, with both coming during his tenure at James Madison. He has never been a home underdog at the FBS level. Meanwhile, under head coach Ryan Day, in an admittedly small sample, the Buckeyes are just 1-2-1 as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. They lost both non-covers outright (2021 at Michigan and 2024 at Oregon). The Buckeyes have already shown they are fully capable of coughing up a winnable game on the road. I trust Curt Cignetti much more than I trust Ryan Day. Take the Hoosiers in a spot you are unlikely to see them again, as a home underdog. 

Boston College +6.5 Pittsburgh

Widely expected to be one of the worst power conference teams in 2026, Boston College has been quietly competent, especially on defense. After allowing 34 points in their opener at Cincinnati, the Eagles have held their next three FBS opponents to 25 points or less and have covered all three games. They were only able to win one outright thanks to an inconsistent offense. Quarterback Mason McKenzie, a Division II transfer, runs well (437 rushing yards), but is limited as a passer and makes too many mistakes. His supporting cast is also less than stellar. No player has more 169 receiving yards and the team's second leading rusher has 200 fewer yards on the ground than McKenzie. Still, the Eagles have been able to ugly up their games and with Pittsburgh coming to town with a backup quarterback, another ugly, low-scoring games seems to be on the horizon. The Panthers opened the season 5-0, but lost their starting quarterback in their victory against Virginia Tech. Their veteran backup, Holden Geriner, did not play well in his first start last week against North Carolina. The Panthers scored a touchdown on their opening drive and then hit a big pass early in the fourth quarter on another touchdown drive, but in between, the Panthers managed just three points. Without a barrage of turnovers from Boston College, its hard to envision the Panthers scoring more than 24 points. This should be a low-scoring field position battle. In that situation, I like the team catching nearly a touchdown. 

Ball State +6.5 Bowling Green

After an 0-4 start, Bowling Green is unbeaten in MAC play, having beaten seasoned MAC member Miami of Ohio and newcomer Sacramento State. The most recent victory against the Hornets was impressive, but seems to be more a testament to how bad Sacramento State is instead of any indication of greatness on the part of Bowling Green. While Bowling Green enters with some momentum, Ball State has dropped four in a row and has not beaten an FBS team this season. However, their schedule has been much tougher than Bowling Green's. The Cardinals have faced two good to great Big 10 teams (Northwestern and Ohio State), perhaps the best team in Conference USA (Liberty), and the most talented team in the MAC (Toledo). They also faced Kent State with their backup quarterback which is part of the reason they managed only thirteen points against the Golden Flashes. Their starting quarterback, Keldric Luster, should be good to go in this spot and he has played well against the non-power conference teams the Cardinals have faced. The Falcons victory over Sacramento State (basically an FCS team) is inflating this line and I expect Ball State to have a real shot to win this game outright. 

Massachusetts +6.5 Buffalo

In our ever changing world, its good to know some things are constant. For Mid-American Conference fans, that one constant is Toledo losing as a massive favorite. Buffalo upset the Rockets in Toledo last week as a nearly three touchdown underdog. Jason Candle may be gone to Connecticut, but his spirit lives on in northwestern Ohio. The victory was the first by the Bulls against an FBS opponent as they struggled to put away a pair of FCS teams earlier in the year (Albany and Robert Morris). While the Bulls prevailed, they have yet to put up world beating numbers on offense. Buffalo has scored 73 total points in their four games against FBS teams, with the 23 they scored against Toledo representing their high water mark. When a team struggles to exceed twenty points, asking them to lay almost a touchdown might be pushing it. Buffalo does get to face a diminished Minutemen squad in upstate New York. Two weeks ago, the Minutemen were undefeated and dreaming about a potential trip to Detroit in early December. Two losses and an injury to their starting quarterback later and the Minutemen are staring down the barrel of yet another losing season. Outside of Toledo and Western Michigan, the rest of the MAC is a lot of teams of similar quality. Buffalo is getting a little too much love in the betting market after beating a team that is regularly upset. I think this is another game where scoring is at a premium. Take the underdog catching nearly a touchdown.

Georgia Tech +10 Virginia Tech

After a rough opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech has quietly morphed back into the football team they always strive to be under head coach  and former offensive lineman Brent Key. The team rushed for 51 yards against Colorado, and averaged under two yards per carry. In their next three games against FBS competition, the Yellow Jackets have increased their per carry average, culminating in them averaging over six yards per rush against Duke last week. Quarterback Alberto Mendoza has also played well in every game save for Tennessee. At 2-3, Georgia Tech has made a bowl game a dicey proposition, but this team should be in every game the rest of the way, with the potential exception of Georgia. Meanwhile, after a hot start, Virginia Tech has cooled off. The Hokies have dropped their past two games, despite being solid favorites in both. The Hokies have not beaten a power conference team by more than nine points and that victory (Maryland) is looking worse and worse by the minute. Take the Yellow Jackets to keep this one close. 

Oklahoma State +5 Houston

Years from now when historians are perusing the 2026 college football season on sports-reference, one of the most inexplicable results will be Oklahoma State's loss to Tulsa. The Cowboys scored ten points against the Golden Hurricane and averaged less than five yards per pass. Since that defeat, Oklahoma State has scored 122 points in their three games against FBS competition. Meanwhile, Tulsa has dropped three of four games against FBS opponents while allowing 113 points in their last three games. There is no preseason in college football, so maybe that result is just a function of early season variance. When handicapping Oklahoma State, I would recommend tossing that game out. It has not had any predictive value for their other four games. Meanwhile, Houston is 5-1 with their lone loss coming on the road to defending Big 12 champion Texas Tech. However, Oklahoma State will represent the best offense Houston has faced this season. I don't think the Cougars will be able to get enough stops to cover this number. 

Navy +7 UTSA

Halfway through the 2026 season, the Roadrunners from San Antonio are 5-1 with their only loss coming at Texas. After a relatively disappointing first three seasons (at least compared to how they closed in Conference USA) in the American Conference, the Roadrunners have a great shot at playing in the conference title game. They are an indomitable force at home in the Alamodome, where they are 35-6 straight up under head coach Jeff Traylor. However, some of losses provide a clue into how this game could turn out. Three of their five home losses under Traylor have come to Army. The Midshipmen run a different variation of the triple option (specifically, the Wing T version), but they are difficult to prepare for and utilize strategies (going for it on fourth down and reducing the number of possessions) that introduce more variance and benefit the underdog. Navy is a tough luck 2-3 on the year, losing one possession games to Air Force, Florida Atlantic, and UAB. After finishing 5-0 in one possession games last season, they were due for some regression. Navy cannot throw the ball as well as they did over the past few seasons (especially when the opponent knows they are throwing) when they had the dynamic Blake Horvath playing quarterback, but I don't think they will fall far behind or face many third and longs. In addition, they have done a great job thus far of shutting down their opponents' running game. No team has been able to average four yards per carry against them. They should put the Roadrunners in enough third and longs and make enough stops to keep this one interesting. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

We in fact, did not start October strong. Let's see if we can bounce back.       

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 17-17-1

Wyoming +6 San Jose State

I'm always wary backing Wyoming away from Laramie. Under head coach Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys are just 3-12 straight up in true road games, including 0-3 this season. However, I don't think this line is properly accounting for the brutal travel spot the home team occupies. The Spartans played at Hawaii last week and upset the Rainbow Warriors while improving to 3-2 on the season. Now they have to travel back to San Jose and face a conference rival on a short week. Since 2021, fourteen FBS teams have traveled to Hawaii and then played another game against an FBS opponent the following week. Those teams are 6-8 straight up, but 3-11 ATS. Favorites performed a bit better, posting a 6-3 straight up record, but they were just 3-6 ATS. The sample size is small, but this line is probably inflated by a point or two. In addition, while Wyoming has been quite poor in road games the past few seasons, San Jose State does not have the offensive firepower to run away and hide. The Spartans have not scored more than 27 points against an FBS team this season. I expect this to be an ugly game that is played in the high teens or low twenties. As the Cowboys are catching nearly a full touchdown, they are the play. 

North Carolina +3.5 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh upset Virginia Tech last week to move to 5-0 and makes themselves a player in the ACC conference race. However, in the process, they also lost their starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a season ending injury. Holden Geriner came in and played well in relief in the upset win. Geriner previously saw limited action for Auburn and Texas State, so this game against North Carolina will be the first extended action of his career. I think Bill Belichick, even an aged, Belichick, can concoct a gameplan to induce some turnovers from the old, but inexperienced quarterback. Pitt was also very fortunate to win the game against the Hokies irrespective of their quarterback injuries. The Panthers were outgained by 200 yards and averaged two fewer yards per play than the Hokies. However, they were +4 in the turnover margin. Even with the turnover advantage, Virginia Tech still had to miss a very makeable field goal to keep Pitt unbeaten. North Carolina has been better than expected this season, beating TCU in Ireland, having Clemson on the ropes in Death Valley, and acquitting themselves reasonably well against Notre Dame. A bowl game is not out of the question and the only surefire loss remaining on the schedule is against Miami. I expect the Tar Heels to be play well and keep this game within a field goal. The series history also seems to favor North Carolina. The Panthers are just 3-6 against the Tar Heels under Pat Narduzzi, including 2-3 in Pittsburgh.

Vanderbilt +9.5 Ole Miss

After the 2023 season, Clark Lea threw up his own Hail Mary and imported various pieces of the New Mexico State team to Nashville. The most famous of those pieces was Heisman finalist Diego Pavia, but he was not the only one. Two of the more important additions don't play at all. New Mexico State head coach, and all around revitalization expert, Jerry Kill has been a consultant since 2024 and Tim Beck (not the former Coastal Carolina coach) has been the offensive coordinator for the same amount of time. Kill and Beck have made the Commodores dangerous underdogs. Vanderbilt plays slow, runs the ball, and goes for it on fourth down a lot. In Clark Lea's first three season, Vanderbilt was 12-17 ATS as an underdog, with three outright wins. Since the start of the 2024 season, Vanderbilt is 12-3-1 ATS with seven outright wins. Those splits hold when catching more than a touchdown (as they are in this spot). In Lea's first three seasons, the Commodores were 11-16 ATS with two outright wins. Since the import, they are 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. The Commodores have covered both games they entered as an underdog this season, playing an even game with Auburn on The Plains, but losing thanks to a blocked punt touchdown and covering as a massive underdog between the hedges in Athens. Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense, but their defense has issues. Teams not named Charlotte have scored 114 points on the Rebels in three games. Its hard to win by margin when the defense doesn't get any stops. A two touchdown lead late for Ole Miss will not be safe as the backdoor should be wide open for Vanderbilt to step through. 

Illinois -2.5 Michigan State

This one almost seems too easy right? Michigan State has been listless since opening the season with victories against two MAC schools. The Spartans have scored 26 total points in their past three games and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is on a personal twelve game losing skid against power conference opponents. That streak runs to eighteen games in the continental United States (last win against Nebraska in Ireland). Illinois is desperate, having lost their past three games to FBS teams, including upset home losses to Duke and Purdue. There are three ranked teams remaining on the schedule as well as an ascendant Northwestern and an unbeaten Nebraska, so the Illini are very much in danger of missing out on a bowl game altogether. If Illinois is able to score in the mid-20s, which I expect they will with their potent offense, Michigan State should not be able to keep up. 

Rice +10 East Carolina

The Owls have followed the Pirates to bigger and better conferences over the the past couple of decades. Rice joined Conference USA in 2005, eight seasons after the Pirates gave up their life of Independence in 1997. East Carolina left Conference USA in 2014 and joined the American. Rice hung out in the Conference USA wasteland for nearly another decade before joining the Pirates once again. The teams have only met once as American opponents, with Rice winning by seven in Houston in 2023. Things are very different now, with the Owls on a new coach and operating a variant of the option (to not great success). East Carolina is also led by a different head coach. Blake Harrell is the lead privateer after a solid first full season in charge, regression seems to have boarded the ship. The Pirates slipped by Old Dominion in Norfolk a few weeks ago and pounded North Carolina Central in their last game, but the offense has floundered, scoring 24 points or less in all three games against FBS competition. Despite their lack of success, Rice will keep the ball on the ground and reduce the number of possessions in this game, something one should look for in an underdog. The Pirates don't have the offense to put this game away, and I expect Rice to do enough to stay within striking distance. 

North Dakota State -3 UNLV

So far, FBS life has been easy for the Bison. After dominating FCS for the better part of two decades, North Dakota State made the decision to join the Mountain West in 2026. The decision came as a bit of a surprise, at least in its suddenness, but the results have been great thus far. The Bison are 5-0 and have won four of their games by double digits. They probably need the teams ahead of them in the Group Of Six pecking order to lose (Boise State and perhaps James Madison and Memphis), but they have a realistic shot to make the College Football Playoff in their first year at the highest level of the sport. Their opponent on Saturday likely felt the Mountain West was theirs for the taking in 2026. Long a college football wasteland, UNLV has put three consecutive good seasons together only to be foiled by Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game three straight times. With the Broncos off to the reconstituted Pac-12, there was no conference overlord to hold them down. The Rebels opened the season a somewhat disappointing 1-2, but have looked the part offensively over their past two games, scoring 77 combined points in wins against Akron and Cal. While the offense is probably better than it showed in the first three games (48 total points), the Zips and Bears are not the strongest of FBS defenses. North Dakota State likely represents the best defense UNLV has faced thus far this season (depending on your opinion of Memphis) and is a major step up from Akron and Cal. I don't think the betting market realizes how good North Dakota State is. I expected them to be laying closer to a touchdown in this spot. Take them laying this small number in Sin City. 

UTEP +9 Nevada

This game (that is somehow on FS1 and not MW+) might be a loser leaves town match for the head coaches. Both Jeff Choate (Nevada) and Scott Walden (UTEP) are in their third season at their respective schools and despite some optimism, things are bad. Nevada opened the Choate era by nearly beating eventual College Football Playoff participant SMU as a four touchdown underdog. They followed that up by beating the defending Sun Belt champion (Troy) on the road. However, since that 1-1 start, they are just 6-21 overall, having dropped their past three games after beating Western Kentucky in their opener this season. Meanwhile, for UTEP, the optimism was more in the hire itself. Scotty Walden was a coach in his mid-30's who had guided Austin Peay to four consecutive winning seasons and one FCS playoff appearance. Thus far in El Paso, he is 6-23 with two of those wins coming against FCS teams. These teams are bad, but they are pretty close in quality. I don't understand why Nevada is nearly a double digit road favorite. Their victory against Western Kentucky has not aged well (the Hilltoppers have not won an FBS game) and neither has their loss to Middle Tennessee State (Nevada is their only FBS win). Nevada did lose a close game to a very good FCS team (Montana State) and also fell in overtime to Air Force, but both those games came at home. UTEP has had a much tougher schedule, losing to Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Oregon State. None of the losses were particularly close, but those teams are not in UTEP's weight class. If you squint, you can see some good things coming for UTEP. Four of their next five games are at home and the Mountain West has some bad teams at the bottom. I wouldn't be shocked if UTEP won this game outright postponed the inevitable. Walden will save his job temporarily before the UTEP administration eventually Thoreaus him out (I apologize for that one).

The Magnificent Seven: Week V

Two winning weeks in a row. And it could have been even better. I went 1-2 in games decided by the 'hook. It certainly brings you back. Lets see if we can start October off strong.       

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 14-13-1

West Virginia +3.5 Iowa State

Last week at this time, West Virginia fans probably felt like they were a legitimate darkhorse in the Big 12 title race. The Mountaineers had just beaten Virginia by two scores on a neutral field and were crushing teams on the ground behind quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook. The run threat allowed Hawkins to hit big plays in the passing game despite not being the most accurate quarterback. West Virginia is the epitome of a team that can pass when they want to, but cannot pass when they have to. With the defense unable to get any stops in the second half against Oklahoma State last week, the onus fell on Hawkins and he did not deliver through the air. He completed less than half his passes and threw for just 132 yards against the Cowboys. The good news for West Virginia fans is that Iowa State lacks the offensive firepower to go up and down the field against an average at best Mountaineers defense. Iowa State has scored thirty total points in two games against power conference teams (they scored 93 in their two games against non-power teams). I think this game comes down to Iowa State's ability to stop the run. The Cyclones held up well against a mediocre Iowa run game, but they allowed over 200 yards at more than six yards per carry against Utah last week. West Virginia bounces back and wins outright against the Cyclones in Ames. 

Marshall +18.5 James Madison

If you just looked at the record of these two teams coming into this game (a combined 7-1), you might wonder why the 4-0 team is such a prohibitive favorite over the 3-1 team. And then you check Marshall's schedule. The Thundering Herd have won their past three games, against less than stellar competition, by a combined nine points. Their most recent victory was an escape act against Gardner Webb. Marshall trailed by eight points in the fourth quarter, but rallied to win by a single point on a last second field goal. As I wrote a few weeks ago, teams that eke out a win against an FCS opponent are often undervalued by the betting market in their next game. In fact, Gardner Webb nearly upset Liberty three weeks ago. Off that win, the Flames were double digit favorites against Ball State, and won the game by five touchdowns, easily covering the spread. Marshall has enough offensive firepower to stay within three scores in this game. After an embarrassing showing in their opener against Penn State, Marshall has averaged over thirty points per game. James Madison is probably the best team in the Sun Belt, but the Dukes are a little overvalued after beating lesser versions of San Diego State and Old Dominion over the past two weeks. The Monarchs were without their starting quarterback and I don't think that is being properly priced in this line. Finally, Marshall is 2-2 against James Madison since the Dukes arrived in FBS, winning in both of their previous trips to Harrisonburg. This spread is too high for the Dukes to cover. 

Arkansas +14 Texas A&M

After beginning the 2025 season 11-0, Texas A&M is 2-4 in their last six games, with one of those victories coming against Missouri State. The SEC slate is daunting, so the Aggies probably need to win this one to even think about posting a winning record in 2026. While Arkansas is probably the worst team in the SEC, are the Aggies in position to be laying double digits? In their three games against power conference teams this season (Arizona State, LSU, and Kentucky), the Aggies are being outgained by nearly three yards per play (7.01 to 4.29)! Were it not for two defensive touchdowns and two other short field touchdown drives against Arizona State, the Aggies could be 1-3. Arkansas has not looked great against the two power conference foes they have faced, losing to Georgia and Utah by a combined 61 points. However, Arkansas has made a habit of playing closer than expected games against the Aggies since these two become conference opponents. The Aggies joined the SEC in 2012 and they have played each season since. Texas A&M has dominated the series, winning thirteen of fourteen games. However, the Razorbacks are 8-4-2 ATS and are 4-1 ATS as a double digit underdog. The Aggies lone cover as a double digit favorite came in their first season in the SEC when they had the eventual Heisman winner at quarterback. Marcel Reed will not be winning a Hesiman anytime soon. Take the Hogs to keep this one close. 

Coastal Carolina +2.5 Georgia Southern

Through four games, I think I was wrong about both these teams heading into 2026. I thought Coastal Carolina would be one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt and I figured Georgia Southern would be a darkhorse contender in the conference. While both teams have identical 1-3 records, Coastal has played better. The Chanticleers lost tight road games at West Virginia and Delaware where they averaged more yards per play than both the Mountaineers and the Blue Hens. Quarterback Deuce Bailey, who came over with head coach Ryan Beard from Missouri State, has thrown for ten touchdowns on the young season. Bailey does take too many sacks (15 thus far), but Georgia Southern has shown no proclivity for rushing the passer. They have eight sacks on the year, but six of those came in their opener against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern's quarterback is almost as old as I am. Max Johnson is on his fourth team and seventh (and hopefully final) college season. He has been fine so far in 2026, but if I were picking between the two, I would definitely choose Bailey. Georgia Southern has been a road favorite just three previous times under head coach Clay Helton. They are 1-2 ATS in those spots. This also marks just the second time they have been a road favorite against a conference opponent under Helton. For what its worth, they lost that game against Marshall in 2023. Georgia Southern is in no position to lay points on the road. Take a chance on the Chants. 

Temple +6 South Florida

This is a battle of the best 1-3 team in the country against the worst 4-0 team in the country. Temple has been agonizingly close to breaking through in KC Keeler's second season in Philly. The Owls blew a late two touchdown lead and lost in overtime to Toledo (probably the best team in the MAC) and then on a short week, dropped a tight game to Army. Meanwhile, South Florida has beaten their three FBS opponents by a combined 22 points. They trailed by ten points in the fourth to Army, but came back to win. Last week, they were being shut out by putrid Bowling Green, but scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to beat one of the worst teams in the MAC. The Bulls are also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, which is not an ideal strategy for getting margin on an opponent. Among teams that have played four games, only six teams have run fewer plays than the Bulls. I think Temple is the better team and as they are catching nearly a touchdown, they are an easy play. 

Southern Cal -9.5 Washington

It doesn't seem like Lincoln Riley is going to be able to get it done in Los Angeles. And by 'it' I mean win the Pac-12 Big 10 or make the College Football Playoff. Serves him right for running scared out of Norman because the Sooners were going to the SEC. But I digress. While the Trojans have struggled on their long road trips (maybe he should consult with cross town rival Bob Chesney about the best way to handle cross country flights) and against elite teams, they have handled patsies like Washington. And rest assured, Washington is a patsy. The Huskies are 3-7 straight up in true road games under head coach Jedd Fisch and an incredible 0-6 ATS as a road underdog. This is their first road game of the year after spending the first month in the friendly confines of the Pacific Northwest. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this season. I have a hard time envisioning the Trojans not getting to at least 38 points in this game and I don't think Washington can keep up. 

Fresno State +2 Washington State

Fresno State needs to change their scheduling tactics under Matt Entz. The past two seasons they have opened with road games against power conference opponents and the results have been less than ideal. Kansas beat them 31-7 last year and Southern Cal blanked them 39-0 this season. Both results devalued Fresno State in the betting market. Fresno won eight of their last eleven games after last season's rough debut against Kansas. They also went 3-1 both ATS and straight up as a betting underdog. This season, they have won three in a row after their shellacking in the LA Coliseum. The competition has not been the strongest (the three teams they have beaten have one FBS win between them), but the competition in Pullman should not be that strong either. I was on Washington State last week as they were catching double digits at home against former conference mate Arizona. The Cougars covered (barely), but were outplayed pretty significantly by Arizona, especially after the first quarter. Washington State averaged under five yards per play, as they have in all three games against FBS opponents. Quarterback Caden Pinnick is a fun player who moves well and can make things happen off schedule. However, he takes too many sacks (ten so far) and the Cougars cannot consistently move the ball. They have scored three offensive touchdowns in three games against FBS teams. Their kicking game is also bad, as kicker Jack Stevens has converted on just two of seven field goal attempts on the season. Fresno State should be laying about a field goal. With a plus sign in front of their name, they are the play. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

If we learned any lesson from last week, its always coach your linemen to hold when committing an intentional safety. I went to Wake Forest, but I don't harbor any ill will toward NC State fans. You have my condolences. On the bright side, we did go 6-1 last week to pull even for the year. Will regression rear its ugly head this week? There are a lot of ugly dogs in the post this week, so the answer is probably a resounding 'Yes'.       

Last Week: 6-1

Overall: 10-10-1

Clemson -1 California

It may not be hyperbole to say Clemson saved its season and perhaps Dabo's tenure in the upstate by surging back to beat North Carolina last week. A loss would have dropped the Tigers to 1-2 with this late night cross country trip followed by a home game with presumptive ACC overlord (but as of now, never champion) Miami. The Tigers would have been unlikely to pull out of a 1-4 start, but now they could start ACC play 2-0 if they can win on the road against their natural rivals from the west coast. Clemson gave the reigns to quarterback Tait Reynolds and he played well after a slow start against what seems to be a solid North Carolina defense. The only reason I can think of to back Cal in this spot is the travel. This is Clemson's first road trip to the west coast to face either of the bay area teams, so that should give a slight edge to Cal. However, Cal has not exactly dominated their ACC opponents when they face them in Berkely. The Bears are 2-5 straight up at home against ACC teams not named Stanford, so the travel has not guaranteed success. In addition, while Cal looked good last week against Wagner, the Bears were pretty lackluster in their first two games against FBS opponents. UCLA and Syracuse combined to outgain the Bears by over 200 yards and perhaps more concerning, by nearly two yards per play. Syracuse repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, including a pick six, and missed field goals to give the Bears the win. Had the Bears lost that game, one has to think Clemson would be favored by more in this spot. 

Boston College +14 Virginia Tech

I was high on Boston College in the offseason (relatively) thanks to the Division II quarterback they imported from Saginaw Valley State. However, Mason McKenzie has been less than stellar through three games as an FBS quarterback. He has thrown for three touchdowns and rushed for over 200 yards, but he has also thrown five interceptions. Despite solid per play averages, the Eagles have failed to score more than 28 points in any game and two of their opponents include Rutgers and Maine from the FCS. Their most recent game, a nailbiter against the Black Bears is probably accounting for this inflated line. The Eagles beat Maine 22-16 last week, thanks to struggles on fourth down and in the red zone. The Eagles failed to convert both their fourth down attempts against Maine and on the season, they have converted on just two of seven fourth downs. They also ventured into the red zone five times against Maine and managed zero touchdowns. They kicked two field goals, meaning they averaged 1.2 points per red zone possession. Football is a small sample size sport and as the season progresses one would expect Boston College to progress toward a more average fourth down conversion percentage and score a few more touchdowns once they get inside the red zone. That is of course far from guaranteed, but I think their struggles thus far are giving you a few points of value in this line. And while their opponent comes into this game riding high off three consecutive multi-score wins to start the season, the Hokies have not been quite as dominant when you look under the hood. In their past two victories against Old Dominion and Maryland, the Hokies have been outgained by nearly a yard per play (6.32 to 5.35). They have also struggled running the football. After ripping through VMI in their opener, the Hokies have averaged under three yards per carry against the Monarchs and Terrapins. Finally, Virginia Tech has a pretty big game on deck. They host Pitt on a Friday night six days after this trip to Chestnut Hill. The Eagles may not have their full attention. Combining all those aspects and spotting me two touchdowns, makes the Eagles the play. 

Wyoming +3 Hawaii

The past two plus seasons have shown how good a job Craig Bohl did at Wyoming. While Bohl's overall record in Laramie was a mediocre 61-60 over ten seasons, lets compare that number to the ten seasons prior to his arrival. Between 2004 and 2013, the Cowboys went 53-68. That looks like marginal improvement under Bohl. But now, lets look at how the program has cratered since his departure. In two and a quarter seasons under Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys are 8-19 and unless something dramatic happens in Mountain West play, I would expect them to be in the market for a new head coach in 2027. That being said, I'm not sure Hawaii should be laying points away from the islands. Under Timmy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors are 4-14 straight up away from Honolulu when facing other other non-power opponents. Two of those victories came last season when Hawaii was actually good. Their three results thus far have not aged well. Stanford has scored thirteen total points in their other two games after dropping 37 on Hawaii. UNLV held Hawaii to six points, but their other two opponents combined to score 71 points on them. Hawaii's most impressive win came at home against New Mexico State. However, the box score indicated this was a much more even game than the final ten point margin. New Mexico State lost the turnover margin by two and was stopped on fourth down on another drive. Wyoming has their backs against the wall and I expect quarterback Tyler Hughes, a transfer from William and Mary of the FCS, to play better. He tossed three interceptions over the entirety of last season for the Tribe, but has already thrown five against stiffer competition at the FBS level. Playing at home against a team that struggles on the road, I expect him to have his best game of the season and for Wyoming to stave off the proverbial wolves at the door for another week. 

Washington State +10.5 Arizona

Younger readers may not know this, but there used to be a major conference located entirely in the western United States. And these two teams were in it together for about 45 years. Once the Pac-12 split into divisions, these two saw less of each other, but they still played nine times between the 2011 and the Pac-12's temporary demise following the 2023 season. Washington State won six of the past nine meetings, but Arizona won the most recent iteration in blowout fashion. The betting market does not foresee a tight game, but I do. Washington State had a rough start to the season, facing their rivals in a warm weather Apple Cup before heading to Big 12 darkhorse Kansas State. They lost both those games by double digits, scoring just 17 points in the process, but there were some extenuating circumstances. They were on their third head coach in as many seasons and were breaking in an FCS transfer at quarterback. Things looked better when they returned home to Pullman and got to face an overmatched FCS team. I don't think the offense will match the 48 points they hung on Duquesne last week, but I think they will top the 17 total points they scored in their first two games. Arizona is just 4-7 straight up on the road under head coach Brent Brennan, notching three of those wins as they closed the season on a heater last year. The defense was the primary driver for their success last season, but with significant losses, I expect a significant drop off this season. It hasn't happened thus far, but the early season schedule has included an FCS team (Northern Arizona) and one of the worst teams in FBS (Northern Illinois). This is a weird spot for Arizona as they already have one Big 12 loss (at BYU) and return to conference action next week hosting Cincinnati. I don't think the Cougars will have their full attention and I don't think they will win by double digits. 

Missouri +6.5 Mississippi State

Jeff Lebby has Mississippi State back in the top 25 of the AP Poll for the first time since 2022. Now the Bulldogs will be looking to do another thing they have not done since 2022 -- win a conference home game. The Bulldogs lost all four of their SEC home games in 2023 under former head coach (and current defensive coordinator) Zach Arnett. In 2024, under first year head coach Lebby, they again went 0-4 in their SEC home slate. Last season, they got their first conference win under Lebby (at Arkansas), but again failed to win a single conference home game. Bulldog fans have not seen their team defeat an SEC opponent in Starkville since November 5, 2022. That's an unlucky thirteen in a row for those scoring at home. Now after consecutive road wins against power conference foes (Minnesota and South Carolina), the Bulldogs return home as solid favorites against Missouri. After beating Kansas in an emotional Border War battle, the Tigers suffered a case of somnambulism against Troy and scraped by the Trojans. I think that result was more of a flat spot than a referendum on the quality of Missouri's football team. Its easy to pick and choose evidence that supports your narrative, but I'll note Missouri barely survived a bad Middle Tennessee State team in 2023 on their way to the Cotton Bowl. Mississippi State is better than we anticipated, but this spread has moved too far. Back the Tigers catching nearly a touchdown on the road. 

Louisiana Monroe +13.5 Florida Atlantic

Last week's home loss to Southeast Louisiana was probably the nail in the coffin for the Bryan Vincent era in Monroe. Its a shame since the past two seasons have started with so much optimism (relatively). The Warhawks began the 2024 season 5-1, with victories against James Madison and Troy, but lost their final seven games to finish with a losing record. Last season, they started 3-1, but dropped their final eight games. And now they are 0-3 in Vincent's third season. After an expected shellacking at the hands of Mississippi State, the Warhawks have dropped tight games to UAB and the aforementioned Lions of the FCS. Despite the loss, Louisiana-Monroe nearly doubled up Southeast Louisiana in terms of yardage and averaged a yard more per play. However, they were undone by turnovers (-2 margin) and two non-offensive touchdowns (interception and punt return). Can they put up a fight as nearly two touchdown home underdogs? I think so. Florida Atlantic won the Shula Bowl last week against FIU, but the Owls were outgained by almost 100 yards and averaged under four yards per play. In fact, their three opponents have outgained them by more than two yards per play (6.74 to 4.62). Now some of that margin came in their opener when they were outmanned against Florida, but Navy and FIU both significantly beat the Owls on a per play basis. In addition, all of Florida Atlantic's scoring and yardage will have to come through the air as they have been inept on the ground. Oddly enough, their best total rushing yardage (120) and per rush average (3.24) came against the Gators. Against Navy and FIU, the Owls have totaled 98 rushing yards on 75 carries! Even if we remove the sack yardage (which we totally should), the Owls barely averaged over two yards per rush (144 yards on 69 carries) in those two games. This is an ugly dog and no one will likely want to back them after their showing last week, but I would not be surprised if this game is in doubt late in the fourth quarter. 

Rice +13.5 Fresno State

Sixteen games into his tenure at Fresno State, former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz has done a pretty good job. The Bulldogs finished 9-4 last season and are 2-1 through three games in 2026. The betting market expects them to be 3-1 as of early Sunday morning. However, quarterback play seems to be limiting the ceiling of this team. Last year, the Bulldogs elected to have EJ Warner be their starting quarterback. The transfer from Rice and Temple finally won some games, but he was below average. He threw nearly as many interceptions (11) as touchdowns (13) and the team averaged just north of 23 points per game against FBS opponents. Jayden Mandal has started all three games for the Bulldogs this season and he has posted decent numbers overall numbers, but almost all of the positive numbers came against Sacramento State. The Hornets are technically an FBS team, but their quality is much more of the FCS variety. He looked awful against Southern Cal, a team that may not be as good defensively as we initially thought. In their moist recent game, he was fine against San Jose State. He completed just north of half his passes, but didn't thrown an interception. The Bulldogs won 26-10, but that final margin was buoyed by four San Jose State interceptions. Turnovers are great, but even with winning the turnover margin by four against the Spartans, the Bulldogs scored only 26 points. This game features two running teams, so the number of possessions should be reduced which will make it harder for Fresno State to get margin. I think the ceiling for the Bulldogs barring a barrage of Rice mistakes is 28 points. If Rice can score two touchdowns, they should cover this number. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Week One was bad and things did not get better in Week Two. I swear I am not actively trying to make incorrect picks. Lets see if we can put a winning week together.     

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 4-9-1

Temple +5.5 Toledo

Since 2021, MAC teams have been favored in fourteen home games against non-conference FBS opponents not named Massachusetts. I didn't count the Minutemen, since they were formerly and are now once again, a member of the MAC. In those fourteen games, MAC teams are just 8-6 straight up and a ghastly 3-11 ATS. The MAC and Conference USA are at the bottom of FBS in conference strength while the American is arguably the best Group of Six conference. For that reason, there would have to be some serious extenuating circumstances for me to back the MAC school. There simply are none here. This is too many points for a team that may actually be better than Toledo. 

Rutgers +24 Southern Cal

Rutgers is a scary underdog to back after their showings against Massachusetts and Boston College. Those two northeastern powers combined to win exactly two games last season. Thus far in 2026, they both own victories against the Scarlet Knights. While Rutgers has not been a good team this season, they have looked worse thanks to turnovers and failed fourth down conversions. Rutgers has turned the ball over eight times in two games for a turnover margin of -5. They have also been stopped on fourth down four times while failing to stop their opponents a single time this season. Those fourth down failures equate to an extra four hidden turnovers giving the Scarlet Knights an adjusted turnover margin of -9 through two games! If they turn the ball over four more times against the Trojans while gaining none of their own, this will be one of my worst picks (and that is saying something), but I think this number is a little juiced toward the Trojans on account of those turnovers. Plus, this is Southern Cal's first road game of the year and involves cross country travel. They may also be looking ahead as they host Oregon, a team they have not beaten in a decade, next week. For comparison, Rutgers faces Howard next week. Lincoln Riley's struggles in the eastern time zone has been well documented, but in general, as a road favorite, his Southern Cal teams have struggled. They are 3-12 ATS in the role (0-5 as a double digit road favorite) and have lost outright five times. An outright loss would be confounding and might seriously get Riley fired. I don't think that will happen, but I expect an inspired effort from Rutgers and a little better luck should see them stay within this number. 

UTEP +35.5 Michigan

This the ultimate hold your nose play on UTEP. Two weeks ago, the Miners lost 51-0 to a team Michigan just beat. Why on earth would you even think of backing them in The Big House? For starters, Michigan has scored 30 points through two games. I know they will probably find the going a lot easier against UTEP, but they probably won't be scoring much more than 35. They scored on their opening, presumably scripted drive against Western Michigan, and then did not score again against the Broncos until completing a controversial Hail Mary. Last week, while they did manage 17 points against an elite Oklahoma defense, one of those scoring drives covered exactly six yards after a John Mateer interception. In addition to their offensive struggles, this is also the ultimate sandwich spot for the Wolverines. They just faced Oklahoma as home underdogs and next week they host what should be an unbeaten Iowa squad. Will the Wolverines really be focused on the Miners? And if (and when) they get up in this game, will they continue trying to score, or will they sit on the ball and attempt to avoid injuries as they competition stiffens next week? UTEP has faced two three power conference foes under Scotty Walden. They opened the 2024 and 2026 seasons getting blasted by Nebraska and Oklahoma respectively, but last year, stayed within three scores as a massive underdog at Texas. The Wolverines will have more on their mind than UTEP and if the Miners can kick a measly field goal, they should be able to cover this number. 

Mississippi State +4 South Carolina

In the new SEC, its never going to be easy to get to a bowl game at Mississippi State, and scheduling a tenth power conference team outside of the new nine game SEC schedule does not help matters. Despite that handicap, things are looking up in Starkville, especially after their dominant win on the road against Minnesota last week. Of course, the Bulldogs also got off to a strong start last year, opening the season 4-0, including a win against the reigning Big 12 champion before water found its level and the Bulldogs dropped seven of their final eight games. With Kamario Taylor entrenched at quarterback and the schedule a little lighter than last season, a winning record for the first time since the untimely passing of Mike Leach is on the board. I think the Bulldogs will get halfway to bowl eligibility against a South Carolina team that dominated Towson on the scoreboard, but struggled mightily in the passing game. LaNorris Sellers completed less than half his passes and threw for less than 100 yards against the FCS Tigers. I maintain Sellers is just intriguing enough to get an NFL coach fired. He is inconsistent at best as a passer and takes too many sacks. I think Taylor outplays him on Saturday and Mississippi State opens SEC play with a win. 

Florida International +7 Florida Atlantic

I contemplated taking the Owls as a slight home underdog last week and they managed to upset Navy despite a complete inability to shut down their option attack. The Midshipmen put up numbers on the ground that were nearly identical to the ones Florida put up the week prior (246 yards at nearly seven yards per carry). Florida Atlantic jumped out to a 38-7 lead, but could not salt the game away thanks to their own inability to run the football. The Owls gained 42 yards on 44 rushing attempts against Navy. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp cooked the Navy secondary, throwing for 386 yards and five touchdowns, but I expect the Panthers to put up more resistance. FIU beat the Owls last season, forcing three Veltkamp interceptions, which has been a consistent issue for the quarterback in Boca Raton. Veltkamp has played 13 games against FBS opponents as the Owls quarterback and he has a clean passing sheet (no interceptions), just three times. The Owls are 2-1 in those games (2-8 in the other ten) so if he can protect the football, the Owls will probably beat their in-state rivals. I think he throws at least one interception and I wouldn't discount the chance he throws a few. Take the Panthers to keep this one close and potentially win on the road. 

Rice +9.5 Western Michigan

In the Temple/Toledo write up a few paragraphs above, I noted MAC teams have not fared well when going off as favorites in non-conference play. Those numbers solely referenced their performance as home favorites since 2021. Their results as road favorites, in a much smaller sample, is even more alarming. MAC teams have been road favorites against non-conference opponents just three times since 2021. Toledo was responsible for all three instances and the Rockets not only managed an 0-3 mark ATS, they also lost each game outright. In addition, they were never favored by more than three points. Now you are asking a MAC team to win by double digits on the road. Western Michigan certainly has the collective sympathy of the nation after they were, if not robbed, at least partially swindled, out of a win at Michigan. Meanwhile, Rice is coming off a massive beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame. While the Owls were shut out in South Bend, that game got away from them quickly. The Owls fumbled on their second play from scrimmage and the Irish returned it for a touchdown. On their subsequent drive, they fumbled again and Notre Dame scored in three plays to go up 14-0 less than five minutes into the game. Things did not get better from there and while Rice was never a threat to win the game, going down 14 points in the opening minutes was less than ideal for an option attack. Speaking of the option, I'll note that Marcus Freeman has been phenomenal against option teams as coach of Notre Dame. After allowing 32 points to Navy in his first season (2022), the Irish have allowed 3, 14, and 10 points in their past three meetings. And those last two Navy offense have been quite good. The Irish also held eventual AAC champion Army to 14 points in 2024. So don't look at the zero points Rice scored and expect Western Michigan to hold them to a similar number. Finally, take a look at Western Michigan's schedule. The Broncos from Kalamazoo face an equine foe next week when they host Boise State. The Broncos may be looking ahead as they seek to get a leg up on the other Group of Six teams in the College Football Playoff race. This is too many points. Take another parliament of Owls against a MAC favorite. 

Maryland +3 Virginia Tech

If I didn't know any better,  I would think James Franklin had an axe to grind against Penn State. The former 'coach in waiting' at College Park was 5-1 against Maryland since Mike Locksley arrived in 2019. All five of those victories came by at least seventeen points and four of them came by thirty or more. Maryland's lone victory against Penn State under Locksley came in the pandemic impacted 2020 season (as nearly four touchdown underdogs). In other words, Franklin should not lack any motivation in trying to improve to 3-0 as head coach at Virginia Tech. While the mind should be willing, I think the flesh will be weak. Virginia Tech dominated Old Dominion on the scoreboard last week, but the box score was more inconclusive. While the Hokies outgained the Monarchs (416 to 310), they also averaged a yard fewer per play (5.96 to 4.84). The Hokies returned a fumble for a touchdown and had another touchdown drive that started on the Old Dominion twenty yard line after a fumble. The result was much better than last year's game against Old Dominion, but a little misleading nonetheless. Now Virginia Tech is making their first road trip of the year against a Maryland team that has looked good, (and by good I mean destined to finish 6-6 or 7-5) in the early going. Excluding 2020 when there were no non-conference games, the Terps are 10-0 under Locksley in conference home games against FBS teams. Obviously some of those games have come against MAC punching bags, but they have also beaten SMU, Syracuse, Virginia, and West Virginia in that span. The wrong team is favored here. Maryland will open 3-0 and tease their fans with the promise of a ranked campaign.