2025 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: AAC

Last week we looked at how AAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2025 AAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary criteria to determine if a team's record differed significantly from their expected APR. By that standard, Navy and Tulane were the only team's that saw their record differ significantly from their APR with both teams overachieving. Navy also overachieved relative to their YPP numbers and we went over some reasons for that last week. For Tulane, the reason for their overachievement was simple, they won the close ones. The Green Wave finished 3-0 in one-score conference games on their way to an AAC title and CFP bid. 

With So Much Drama in the AAC, its Kinda Hard Going Winless in the CLT

Apologies to Snoop for the cringe worthy parody of his iconic opener, but the 49ers achieved an ignominious feat in 2025 by becoming just the eleventh non-power conference team in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998) to finish winless in conference play with each loss coming by double digits. The eleven teams are listed below chronologically along with their conference affiliation, per game scoring differential in conference play, and closest conference loss. 

The 49ers were bad in 2025, but not exceptionally so when compared to these other basement dwellers. Their per game scoring margin is middle of the pack amongst these eleven teams and they stayed within two touchdowns in one game. Credit to Ball State for somehow losing their conference games by an average of more than five touchdowns per game in 2017. Its no secret Charlotte was bad in 2025. How much improvement can we reasonably expect in 2026? This is how the previous ten teams fared in their follow up seasons. 

Nine of the ten teams improved the following season, with only Wyoming putting up another goose egg in the conference win column. Most of the teams were still bad, with only UCF and Southern Miss getting to a .500 conference record. Both those schools also changed coaches after their winless conference campaigns. Charlotte did not, as head coach Tim Albin was in his first season as head coach. Two other teams on this list were led by first year head coaches. Vic Koenning (Wyoming) and Marcus Arroyo (UNLV) had rough initial first seasons at their respective schools. Unfortunately, things did not get much better from there. Koenning lasted three seasons at Wyoming, winning just one Mountain West game during his tenure (1-20 conference record). Arroyo fared a little better in Sin City, improving his overall win total each season (0 to 2 to 5), but was canned after three seasons giving way to the most successful run in UNLV's history. A sample size of two coaches in hardly a death sentence for Albin's Charlotte tenure. He has been successful at his two previous head coaching stops (Northwestern Oklahoma State and Ohio) after rough first seasons, but if the 49ers continue to struggle in Albin's second season, it might be time to ponder if the 49ers are committed to winning at the FBS level. 

2025 Yards Per Play: AAC

The college football season is over and the longest offseason in sports begins. To help you get through, we'll revisit all ten nine conferences as we have for about a decade via conference only Yards Per Play numbers and the Adjusted Pythagorean Record to see which teams may have been better or worse than their actual record. We'll begin as we always do with the American Athletic Conference. 

Here are the 2025 AAC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each AAC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2025 season, which teams in the AAC met this threshold? Here are AAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Army, Rice, and if we round up, Navy, all exceeded their expected record based on YPP. Perhaps not coincidentally, they also all run a form of the option. Determining if option teams seem to consistently exceed their per play numbers may be an offseason project if I have the time. At the other end of the spectrum, Tulsa (once again, if we round) and South Florida significantly underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. For the overachievers, close game success helps explain Navy's success. The Midshipmen were 3-0 in one-score conference games. However, close game performance does not explain how Army and Rice were able to overachieve. Army (2-3) and Rice (1-2) both finished with losing one-score conference records. For Army, the overachievement is baked into their style of play. Plays of three or four yards keep them on schedule and they are ultra aggressive on fourth down (attempted 39 conversions in AAC play). They also converted a high percentage of those fourth down attempts (67% in AAC play) to keep drives going and reduce the number of possessions in a game. For Rice, you have to look a bit further into the numbers to understand their overachievement. The Owls were not good over their first three conference games as they were outgained by about 0.70 yards per play. They finished 1-2 in those games, a record not extremely out of line from their performance. Over their final five games, the Owls were outgained by an incredible 3.35 yards per play as the offense struggled to move the ball and the defensive was continually shredded. To put that per play differential in context, it was a full yard worse than their cumulative per play margin. The Owls were outscored by 146 points in those five games, but managed to win the only close one they played (versus UAB). For the underachievers, Tulsa finished 1-2 in one-score conference games and also had an in-conference turnover margin of -7. While the Golden Hurricane finished 1-7 in AAC play for the second consecutive season, they were much better in their first season under Tre Lamb. Finally, South Florida was arguably the best team in the AAC in 2025 and probably would have given a better performance in the College Football Playoff than Tulane. The Bulls won their six AAC games by a combined 201 points, but lost both one-score conference games they played by a field goal each. Had they beaten either Memphis or Navy, the Bulls likely would have played for the conference title and a CFP bid. 

Pipeline to Power

2025 was a pretty successful season for the AAC (or American if that is your preferred nomenclature). Three schools finished ranked, one made the CFP, and the league won several games against power conference teams. Power conference schools noticed and snapped up four AAC coaches in the latest round of the coaching carousel. Three of those coaches even nabbed SEC jobs. This got me wondering which mid-major schools and conferences have produced the most 'graduates' to power jobs? To answer this question, I looked at all coaching hires in the BCS/CPF era and tabulated where power conference teams have poached their coaches from. Power conference teams sometimes promote from within or hire hotshot assistants, but when they poach directly from mid-major FBS conferences, the AAC comes out on top despite only coming into existence in 2013. 

You may be surprised to see the MAC finishing tied for first with the AAC, but that is more emblematic of a bygone era (more on that in a moment). Two conferences that no longer exist bring up the rear (WAC and Big West) as well as the dwindling hodgepodge of teams that play as an Independent. For the purposes of this exercise, I considered Wake Forest's hire of Jake Dickert prior to the 2025 season to be an Independent hire as the Pac-12 did not really exist in 2024 and 2025. With the league reconstituting in 2026, any subsequent hires from its membership will be considered Pac-12 hires. 

I mentioned the MAC's status at the top of the list as emblematic of a bygone era. The reason for this is simple, only one MAC coach (Lance Leipold) has moved on to a power conference job since 2018. if we look at coaching graduates in the CFP era only, the AAC's dominance shines through. 

The league has double the graduates of any other mid-major conference and accounts for 40% of mid-major coaches taking power conference jobs. This trend continues to hold true if we look at post-Covid (NIL and transfer portal) era hires. 

Once again, the AAC has more than double the graduates of any other mid-major conference and 44% of the total instances of mid-major coaches taking power conference jobs. Were I an FCS, D2, D3, or NAIA coach, I would think twice about taking a head coaching job in Conference USA or the MAC. Those head coaches have tended to toil in obscurity and not be considered for power conference jobs. As I mentioned, Leipold was the last MAC coach to get a power conference job and Jeff Brohm (2017) was the last Conference USA coach to move up to a power conference. 

Finally, which mid-major schools have produced the most graduates to power conferences? 

Boise State has sent the most head coaches directly to power conference jobs (with varying levels of success) while five schools are tied for second. I'll note that Houston will not be able to add to this list as they are now in a power conference (Big 12). 14 schools have sent two head coaches directly to power conference jobs and for completions sake, they are listed alphabetically in the table below. 

The AAC has been the preeminent mid-major (formerly Group of Five and now Group of Six) conference since it appeared on the scene in 2013. The 2026 coaching carousel proved its coaches are highly esteemed by the decision makers at power conference schools. While this may prove detrimental in the short term at the four AAC schools that lost head coaches, it may also make for an exciting and unpredictable 2026 conference race with a potential power vacuum at the top of the league. 

Strangers in the Field Part X: How'd We Do?

After last season's debacle, I made no NFL wagers during my pilgrimage to Las Vegas, so we can grade the bets now. It wasn't a great betting season, but at least we didn't lose any money. 

AAC Bets

Didn't have a great read on the AAC. Navy and Tulane probably deserved to get home, but the Midshipmen and Green Wave won the close ones (combined 10-0 in one-score games). Thankfully, Rice, one of my biggest bets, cashed. 

ACC Bets

I had better luck in the ACC, but my biggest bet of the year (Virginia Tech), didn't come close to getting there. The Hokies led at the half in nearly all their conference games in 2024 and I figured that would portend a solid season in 2025. It did not. Also, while I did not wager for or against Duke, Manny Diaz has made a lifelong enemy. Duke lost to teams I had the under on (Connecticut, Illinois, and Tulane) and had no trouble handling teams I bet the over on (Cal and NC State). 

Big 10 Bets

Another league I did not have a good read on. I will say, I missed a lot of these by one win (Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Oregon). The Maryland loss was particularly painful as the Terrapins began the season 4-0 and had a 20-0 lead in the second half of their fifth game. They lost that one en route to an eight game losing streak. It totally made sense to bring Mike Locksley back. 

Big 12 Bets

You're probably asking, where are the good bets? I assure you, they are coming. I whiffed really bad predicting a rebound for Oklahoma State. 

Conference USA Bets

Despite the 3-3 record, this was somewhat profitable, since I bet pretty big on Sam Houston State having a rough year. Four FBS teams lost to FCS teams in 2025. And I bet the over on two of them. One was Middle Tennessee. See if you can guess the other. 

Independent Bets

If you told me the Huskies were going to lose to both Delaware and Rice, I would have guaranteed this was a winner. Of course, if you told me the Huskies would beat both Boston College and Duke, I would have guaranteed it was a loser. 

MAC Bets

Came close to sweeping the rust belt, but Eastern Michigan lost to an FCS team. The double dip dumpster dive on Kent State was profitable and an easy pair of winners. I've bitched a lot (and will continue to do so) about the relative bad luck I had this season, but its also important to acknowledge good fortune. Ball State was not good in 2025, but the Cardinals won all their one score games (3-0) to barely get home. 

Mountain West Bets

Had a good read on the Mountain West and with some better luck, we could have swept this one as well. UNLV was playing with fire all season (5-1 in one score games) while Air Force finished 1-3 in one-score games and suffered a quarterback injury late in the season. 

SEC Bets

This was a low volume, but profitable group of bets. Florida and South Carolina hit the under with ease while Kentucky and Missouri hit and missed by one game respectively. 

Sun Belt Bets

Came close to sweeping the Sun Belt and arguably should have. Arkansas State won six games and three of them came by exactly one point. 

Miscellaneous Bets

None of these got home, but I hope you can understand the logic. I did not trust Auburn to get over their win total, but I figured they had decent upside in case they got good quarterback play. They did not. Iowa had both Indiana and Oregon on the ropes in Iowa City. All four of their losses came by five points or less, so they were closer to making the playoff than it might appear. Utah lost a tight game to BYU to miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game. They were probably not beating Texas Tech anyway though. UTSA played well at home, but they were never in contention to win the AAC which they would have had to do to make the playoff. Washington struggled on the road, but I thought they might have the upside to qualify for the playoff if they could beat Ohio State and Oregon at home. They could not. The reckless parlay did not go well. Colorado was in the game with Georgia Tech, but ultimately lost by a touchdown while Northwestern was blown out by Tulane. 

Money Wagered: $2470

Money Won: $2480.60

ROI: 0.4%

We technically won money, but it was mostly a break even season. Overall, we were 26-23 on win totals, but a somewhat unlucky 6-10 on wagers within one win. On the bright side, we had some negative variance and still came out (slightly) ahead. 

Thanks for reading the blog this year. We will return with out YPP and APR write ups for each conference starting on the first Thursday after the national championship game. See you then. 

The Magnificent Seven: Bowl Season

I thought we might sweep Championship Week, but Manny Diaz had other ideas. Hey, if we sweep bowl season, we'll finish .500 (lol). 

Last Week: 2-1

Overall: 47-54

Saluta to Vetarans Bowl @ Montgomery

Jacksonville State +3.5 Troy

These two Alabama teams have not played since 2001, Troy's first year in FBS. However, they routinely sparred when both were in the Gulf South (Division II) and Southland Conference (FCS, formerly I-AA). I think making this an annual rivalry game would be a good idea for both teams. But I digress. Both the Trojans and Gamecocks lost their respective conference title games, but the margins were quite different. Troy hung with James Madison for three quarters, but could not move the ball against the Dukes and let go of the rope in the fourth. Meanwhile, Troy fell behind Kennesaw State, but took the lead in the fourth quarter only to lose it on a last minute drive by the Owls. The handicap for this game is the rushing attack for the Gamecocks. If the Trojans can stop it, they stand a great shot at winning. But I don't think they can. The Trojans put the clamps on a few teams this season (Nicholls State, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, and Southern Miss), but teams with elite run threats at quarterback (James Madison, Old Dominion, and Texas State) all rushed for over 300 yards against the Trojans. I expect Jacksonville State to take similar action as they seek their second ever bowl win. 

68 Ventures Bowl @ Mobile

Delaware +3.5 Louisiana-Lafayette

Credit Michael Desormeaux for keeping the Ragin' Cajuns engaged after a 2-6 start to the 2025 season. They could have packed it in and prepared for 2026, but they won their final four games to eke out bowl eligibility. However, the last three came by a combined ten points, so they were a bit fortunate to get back to the postseason. In fact, if we exclude their victory against an FCS opponent (McNeese State), the Ragin' Cajuns were outscored by 59 points on the season. Should they be laying more than a field goal against an FBS call up that figures to be highly motivated playing in their first ever bowl game? The Blue Hens had an uneven debut in FBS, beating bowl bound teams Connecticut, Florida International, and Louisiana Tech, but also losing to the worst team in Conference USA, Sam Houston State. The Blue Hens were also outscored by their opponents, but that is mostly due to their poor performance against the two power conference teams they faced (Colorado and Wake Forest). If we back out those two games, as well as their victory against Delaware State (FCS), the Blue Hens actually outscored their non-power FBS opponents. In the past decade, FBS call ups playing in their first bowl game are 6-3 outright. These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I will back the one catching more than a field goal. 

Xbox Bowl @ Frisco

Missouri State +1.5 Arkansas State

Of the two FBS call-ups in Conference USA, I was most skeptical of Missouri State. The Bears don't have the winning pedigree Delaware does at the FCS level. However, one year into FBS life, Missouri State was the better team. The Bears had an inauspicious welcome to FBS in the LA Coliseum against Southern Cal, but won seven of their next nine games before a two-game skid to close the season took some of the shine off their debut. As with Delaware, the Bears should be highly motivated to get their first bowl win. Meanwhile, Arkansas State once again did it with smoke and mirrors. The Red Wolves won three Sun Belt games by exactly one point to eke out bowl eligibility. This team is not good and should not be laying points, even against a former FCS team.  

College Football Playoff

Miami +3.5 Texas A&M

Miami's selection, or perhaps more accurately, Notre Dame's exclusion was one of the bigger stories of this year's selection show. The Hurricanes beat the Irish in the season opener, but stumbled a few times in ACC play, and thanks to some ill conceived tiebreakers, failed to qualify for the conference title game. Like Miami, Texas A&M also defeated Notre Dame, albeit in South Bend. That was a great victory for the Aggies, but was the only impressive one they would notch on the season. One of the consequences of conference expansion is that some years, a team will luck into an easy league schedule (think Indiana last season). And that is exactly what happened to Texas A&M. In the SEC, six teams finished with losing regular season records (Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina). The Aggies played five of them. In fact, they did not face an SEC team with a winning conference record until the regular season finale. Cumulatively, their eight SEC opponents finished with an 18-46 league record! The Aggies can only play the teams on their schedule, but they have faced one playoff caliber team since the season's second week, and they lost it. Believe me, I take no pleasure in backing Mario Cristobal. The Aggies definitely enter with the head coaching advantage, but I think the Hurricanes have a better roster. I'll take the three and a half points. 

GameAbove Sports Bowl @ Detroit

Central Michigan +10.5 Northwestern

An underdog's best friend, especially a double digit underdog, is a running clock. And both teams in this game should keep the clock running. Central Michigan runs on 69% (nice) of their offensive snaps, while Northwestern runs on 55% of theirs. At minimum, three out of every five plays in this game will be on the ground. The total reflects this as it currently sits at 43.5, implying a roughly 27-17 Northwestern victory. The Wildcats scored 28 or more points three times this season: against a bad FCS team (Western Illinois), a bad FBS team (Louisiana-Monroe), and a bad Big 10 team (Minnesota). All those games also came at home. I think they will be in somewhat hostile territory as they travel to MAC country to take on the Chippewas. I don't think Northwestern can score four touchdowns, so as long as Central Michigan can score in the high teens, they should be able to cover this big number. 

Rate Bowl @ Phoenix

New Mexico +3.5 Minnesota

For any aspiring t-shirt salesmen in the greater Phoenix area, I have a simple design for you. Eck Vs Fleck. And then get some AI tool to reimagine the opposing head coaches in various designs throughout history (gladiators, samurais, boxers, etc.). You're welcome. When it comes to the actual product on the field, New Mexico is in a bowl game for the first time in nearly a decade and their first non-New Mexico Bowl trip since 2004. In addition, if the Lobos win and things break right in front of them, they could enter the AP Poll for the first time in school history. For a team that was expected to win roughly three or four games in 2025, that's a pretty good season. I'm surprised Jason Eck is still in Albuquerque, but a power conference team's loss is New Mexico's gain. While a bowl game is big news for the Lobos, it has become old hat for the Gophers. Excluding the 2020 Covid season, this is their seventh consecutive bowl game under PJ Fleck. The Golden Gophers are 6-0 in bowl games under Fleck, but despite their winning Big 10 conference record, this is one of his worst teams at Minnesota. The Gophers were outgained by nearly one and a half yards per play by their Big 10 opponents and went 0-5 away from home this season, losing by an average of nearly 25 points per game. New Mexico has the geographic and the motivation advantage. Back the Lobos catching more than a field goal. 

ReliaQuest Bowl @ Tampa

Iowa +5.5 Vanderbilt

2025 has been a season for the ages for Vanderbilt. The Commodores won ten games, finished with a winning SEC record for the first time since 2012, may have the eventual Heisman winner, and could have qualified for the College Football Playoff if some more teams lost some more games (amazing analysis, I know). That being said, Iowa has the potential to drag the Commodores to hell. The Hawkeyes play their usual brand of great defense and just enough offense to harass, but not beat the better teams on the schedule. Iowa lost four games this season, with each defeat coming by five points or less, including two to a pair of College Football Playoff participants (Indiana and Oregon). Both teams play slow and run the ball which plays to the underdog's advantage. I like Iowa to keep this one close. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XV

Another regular season has come and gone. We march in to Championship Weekend and (hopefully) some better picks. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 45-53

Texas Tech -12.5 BYU @ Arlington

A few years ago, I posted about how one goes about spotting a championship game blowout. The long and short of it is, when a championship game matches up one team that was ranked in the preseason AP Poll and another that was not, back the team that was ranked in the preseason. The preseason AP Poll is far from perfect, but it is a decent proxy for talent and Texas Tech certainly has it. The Red Raiders were only ranked 23rd in the preseason AP Poll, but BYU was nowhere to be found. In the thirty plus year history of championship games, teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Poll are an outstanding 38-4 straight up when they face off against teams that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll. BYU also had some distractions around the program with Kalani Sitake being given serious consideration for the Penn State job. These teams played a month ago in Lubbock with Texas Tech winning easily. I see no reason to expect anything different on Saturday. 

Georgia -2.5 Alabama @ Atlanta

Earlier this year, I posted about underwater conference championship game participants. That is, teams that qualified for their conference championship game despite being outgained on a yards per play basis by their conference opponents. Despite their glistening 7-1 conference record, Alabama fits that description this year, as they were slightly outgained by their SEC foes. 17 teams have advanced to their conference championship game despite being underwater. They went a combined 2-15 in those title games (3-13-1 ATS). I know Georgia has had trouble with Alabama under Kirby Smart, but I think they exorcise those demons on Saturday afternoon and if the margin is large enough, potentially keep Alabama out of the College Football Playoff. 

Virginia -3.5 Duke @ Charlotte

This will probably not surprise you, but Duke also finished underwater in ACC play, yet will somehow play for the conference title on Saturday night. Hopefully this inspires some adjustments to the conference tiebreaker procedures so we are not forced to endure this mediocrity in championship games going forward. Like Texas Tech and BYU, these two teams played fairly recently (three weeks ago), with Virginia winning handily and (we thought) ending Duke's chances at stealing an ACC title. Duke has one of the worst defenses of any power conference team while Virginia was low-key quite good on defense (second in the ACC in yards allowed per play). I expect the Cavaliers to win handily and end Duke's charmed run. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIV

Another bad week pretty much locks up a losing record for us, but I don't know the meaning of the word 'quit' or 'correct pick' for that matter.    

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 42-49

Buffalo +6.5 Ohio

After winning nine games, including five in a row after a 4-4 start in Pete Lembo's first season in upstate New York, Much was expected of Buffalo heading into 2025. Obviously, things have not gone according to plan, as the Bulls need to spring an upset to qualify for a bowl game. Buffalo has had a weird MAC season, narrowly beating Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Massachusetts while losing to Akron despite a solid per play yardage differential. The Bulls defense has been particularly strong, ranking third in the MAC in yards per play allowed behind the elite units at Toledo and Western Michigan. The culprit as is often the case, has been turnovers. In seven league games, the Bulls have a -10 turnover margin. They have had trouble squeezing the football, as they have lost seven fumbles in league play. Despite their turnover struggles, I think their underlying solid per play numbers make them an undervalued play, particularly at home catching nearly a touchdown. 

Arizona -1.5 Arizona State

Last season, Baylor came on strong at the end of the year, winning their final six regular season games after a 2-4 start, giving them darkhorse status heading into 2025. That horse just visited the glue factory, so that may not portend great things for Arizona in 2026, but in the present, they may be playing the best ball in the Big 12 outside of Lubbock. Arizona has won four in a row, but the Wildcats have played well for two months after getting punked at Iowa State in late September. They lost in overtime to BYU, which if you switch that result would make this one of the bigger Territorial Cup games in recent memory. They also lost on a late field goal to Houston. Overall, the Wildcats have the second best per play defense in the Big 12 behind the elite unit in Lubbock. Meanwhile, Arizona State has cobbled together a solid season with smoke and mirrors after a myriad of injuries threatened to derail their season. Over the past two season, Arizona State is 11-4 in one-score games (9-2 versus Big 12 opponents). The Sun Devils have been good, but they have been getting away with it a little bit thanks to their clutch play. I feel like we are due for a Jeff Sims dud and I think Arizona has the defense to make that happen. 

Clemson +2.5 South Carolina

The last time South Carolina was favored in the Palmetto Bowl was also the last time they won in Columbia (2013). Perhaps history is repeating itself, but you may recall that 2013 South Carolina team was their last truly elite squad (depending on how you feel about last year's team). This South Carolina team is far from elite. Their offensive line is porous, their quarterback takes too many sacks, and the team has averaged under twenty points per game against power conference opponents this season. The offense got on track against a bad Sun Belt defense last week, but Clemson, despite their struggles in 2025, has played better of late. They also outgained their ACC foes by about a half yard per play this season. That is a far cry from the ridiculous numbers they put up when they were consistently winning the conference, but they are not a bad team. This feels like an overreaction to last week's offensive explosion against Coastal and an 'SEC tax'. South Carolina did not allow a sack last week against Coastal. This week will look much more familiar to Gamecock fans with LaNorris Sellers not feeling the rush and getting taken down a few times in the backfield. 

Southern Miss -6.5 Troy

After looking like they were going to waltz into their first Sun Belt Championship Game, Southern Miss has dropped two in a row to set up a win and in battle with Troy. The winner figures to be a significant underdog to James Madison, but an appearance by either would serve as marked improvement after both finished a combined 3-13 in Sun Belt play last season. Troy has won all three games in this series since Southern Miss joined the Sun Belt in 2022, with each victory coming by double digits. However, those Southern Miss teams were mostly bad to mediocre and those first two Troy teams were Sun Belt champs. The Golden Eagles have been much better than Troy in their yards per play differential against conference foes. In fact, Troy enters with a significant negative per play differential (-.94 yards per play net). Southern Miss should get back on track at home against the Trojans and may end up winning this game by several touchdowns. 

Florida State +1.5 Florida

I talked about an 'SEC tax' a few lines up and I can't think of any other reason why Florida would be favored in this spot. After firing Billy Napier, the Gators circled the proverbial wagons against Georgia, but have looked bad in their last three outings, losing to Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee by a combined 61 points, with the two worst showings coming in The Swamp. Meanwhile, Florida State has posted solid per play numbers in the ACC (+.84 yards per play), but have been undone by close games (0-4 in one-score games) and turnovers (negative four margin in last week's loss at NC State). The bones of a good team are in Tallahassee and its look like Mike Norvell will get one more shot to try and conjure up a functional body. Take the Seminoles to beat Florida and finish with a pristine 2-0 SEC record to back up their 2-6 ACC mark. 

Maryland +3.5 Michigan State

On October 4, Maryland was 4-0 and leading Washington 20-0 in the second half. The Huskies stormed back to win and the Terrapins are riding a seven game losing streak (four consecutive double digit losses). It makes total sense to bring Mike Locksley back for 2026. No way they will just end up firing him halfway through next season. Locksley and the Terrapins may get to enter 2026 on a somewhat positive note as Michigan State has not distinguished themselves in 2025 either. After a 3-0 start, the Spartans have lost eight in a row, with six of those defeats coming by double digits. Yet somehow they are laying more than a field goal. I have to back Maryland on principle and for one other reason. Maryland does not do much well, but they do have a solid pass rush. And wouldn't you know it, only six teams have allowed more sacks than Michigan State this season. Back the Terps (at your own peril), but I think they end their skid this weekend. 

Auburn +5.5 Alabama

This is an odd numbered year, so you know Auburn will be giving Alabama all they can handle in the Iron Bowl. This amazingly marks the eighteenth consecutive year Alabama has been favored in this game. Auburn last entered as a favorite in 2007, Nick Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa. Since 2007, Alabama has won five of nine in Auburn, but they are just 2-7 ATS. They covered in 2011 with one of the best teams in school history and again in 2015 against a very mediocre Auburn team. Speaking of mediocre, this Auburn team needs to win to get to bowl eligibility. The Tigers are 1-6 in SEC play, having canned Hugh Freeze a few weeks ago after a home loss to Kentucky. Since that loss, the Tigers have played better on offense, scoring 38 points in a near upset of Vanderbilt in Nashville and dominating Mercer on So Con Saturday last week. Auburn's main issue this year has been their offensive line. The Tigers have allowed 41 sacks on the season (only Ball State and Troy have allowed more). However, Alabama does not rush the passer very well. Alabama has racked up a mediocre 23 sacks this season (tied for 62nd nationally). Alabama also does not run the ball very well, which plays right into the Auburn defense which has allowed under three yards per carry on the season. Alabama will have to grind out a win, so this should be a one possession game well into the fourth quarter. Back the Tigers as they have played better since icing out Hugh Freeze. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

Hard to believe, but the penultimate week of the regular season is here. Not much time left to try and improve upon this poor record.   

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 40-44

Kansas +4.5 Iowa State

Before Lance Leipold arrived in Lawrence, a five win season would have been celebrated. Of course, Leipold has changed expectations for the Jayhawks and a second consecutive season without a bowl game would be disappointing. Matt Campbell has similarly adjusted expectations in Ames. After getting the Cyclones to the Big 12 Championship Game last season, this season has been a disappointment. 2025 has continued a troubling trend for the Cyclones as they are on pace to be outgained on a per play basis for the second year in a row. The Cyclones were marginally outgained last season (negative .11 per play differential in yards per play), but this season, Big 12 opponents have outgained them by .84 yards per play. In particular, the Iowa State run defense has been bad for two consecutive seasons. That is not a good recipe for success against a Kansas team with a mobile quarterback and strong ground game. Iowa State has dropped two consecutive games as a home favorite, and a third straight would not surprise me.   

Kentucky +9.5 Vanderbilt

I don't have spread data for games that were played more than two decades ago, but I imagine this season is a first for Vanderbilt. Unless a horrible Simpsons-esque tragedy befalls every member of the team, the Commodores will close as a favorite against Kentucky and will have been favored in each of their SEC homes games. For comparison's sake, the Commodores were not favored in a single SEC game between 2019 and 2024! A victory here would clinch a winning SEC record for Vanderbilt for the first time since 2012, but I don't think it will come easy. Kentucky has played well over the past month and a half, nearly upsetting Texas before winning three in a row. That streak has gotten Kentucky to the cusp of bowl eligibility. The Wildcats need to beat either Vanderbilt or their in-state rivals Louisville in the regular season finale. Kentucky has one of the more underrated defenses in the SEC, having held three of their last four conference foes under four yards per play. I expect Vanderbilt to exceed that number, but the Wildcats should be able to frustrate the Commodores on occasion and hold them below their seasonal averages. On the other side of the ball, the Vanderbilt defense has not impressed. They have the third worst per play defense in the SEC ahead of only Mississippi State and Arkansas, two teams that have combined for one league win. Vanderbilt may remain in the College Football Playoff discussion after Saturday, but it won't be easy. 

Kansas State +17.5 Utah

2025 has been a weirdly dominant season for Utah. I say weirdly because the Utes have mostly played in blowouts, usually for, but occasionally against. Of their eight victories, all have come by at least 25 points. They have only lost two games, but their home loss to Texas Tech came by 24 points, meaning the Utes have played in exactly one game decided by less than three touchdowns. That game was a Holy War loss to BYU and it may end up costing the Utes a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game as well as a College Football Playoff bid. With that resume, you can sort of understand why Utah is laying over 17 points to Kansas State. Still, this is the second largest underdog role for Kansas State under head coach Chris Klieman. For what its worth, they won in their largest underdog role against Oklahoma in Norman in 2020 (nearly four touchdown underdog). While Utah has bullied most of the teams on their schedule with their explosive ground attack, I think Kansas State will be able to hold up in the trenches and force the Utes to pass, at least occasionally. That is something Utah does not do well. Utah is 80th nationally in yards per pass attempt (7.0 per throw). Those are not bad numbers, but they pale in comparison to their rushing average (6.20 yards per rush ranks third). If those runs don't result in big plays and touchdowns, they will keep the clock moving and be a big underdog's best friend. Kansas State mostly sleepwalked through a lethargic win at a very bad Oklahoma State last week, and that is probably inflating this line. The Wildcats still need to notch another win to attain bowl eligibility, so I expect their best effort against one of the best teams in the Big 12. 

Pittsburgh +2.5 Georgia Tech

I was wrong about Brent Key. I figured Georgia Tech's strong finish when he was the interim coach in 2022 was mostly randomness. Key has proven me wrong, guiding the Yellow Jackets to three consecutive bowl games while putting them in position to qualify for the ACC Championship Game this season. While the 6-1 conference mark looks great, Georgia Tech has actually been outgained slightly by their ACC foes on a per play basis (-.01 yards per play margin). The Yellow Jackets have the best per play offense in the ACC and the third worst per play defense. And they have accomplished this 'feat' despite a soft ACC schedule. Their ACC opponents have combined for a 17-30 conference record with some combination of Clemson, Duke, and Wake Forest representing their best conference win. Pittsburgh represents their best conference foe by far and while the Panthers were last seen getting walloped by Notre Dame after hosting College Gameday, before that loss, the Panthers had won five in a row while averaging 40 points per game. The Panthers should come close to that number against a bad Georgia Tech defense. The Panthers also have one of the better defensive units in the ACC and should hold Georgia Tech in check much like the two good defenses (Clemson and Wake Forest) they have faced did (both held Georgia Tech to under 30 points in regulation). Take the Panthers to cover and win outright and introduce more chaos into the ACC race. 

Rice +17.5 North Texas

North Texas is two wins away (home versus Temple next week) from playing in the AAC Championship Game and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Mean Green are also ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 1959! I figured perhaps the legendary Hayden Fry had them ranked during his tenure in Denton, but this predated him by nearly fifteen years. The Mean Green were members of the Missouri Valley Conference the last time they had a little number beside their name. If you're curious, they lost at Tulsa (a team that finished 5-5) the last time they were ranked. I think the Mean Green may be overlooking the Owls after winning four in a row while notching at least fifty points in three of those games. While their record is great, I would argue the Mean Green are not much better on a down to down basis than they were last season when they finished a mediocre 6-6 in the regular season. Their offense is great, as it has been for all three season's of the Eric Morris era. And while their defense has improved slightly, it is still one of the worst in the AAC. Their record has been buoyed by an unsustainable turnover margin. The Mean Green are +14 in turnovers on the season (+16 in their nine wins). If the Mean Green are +2 or so in turnovers, they will blow the Owls out, but while not completely random, turnovers are fickle and can disappear at a moment's notice. While the Mean Green are fighting for a playoff appearance, Rice is fighting for bowl eligibility. The Owls are 5-5 in Scott Abell's first season and have already sprung two double digit upsets. Their most recent upset came after the Owls were off a bye (as they are this week) against a team with a poor run defense (Connecticut). The Mean Green also have a bad run defense, having permitted over 300 yards on the ground on three occasions this season while allowing over 200 yards three additional times. Rice should have one of their more prolific rushing performances this season and it will probably take a lot of points for them to cover this number. North Texas will score on this Rice defense, but Rice should limit the possessions and do enough scoring of their own to keep this within three scores. 

California -3.5 Stanford

When you think 'classic ACC battle', how can one not think of Cal and Stanford? The two newest members of the ACC will square off for the second time as ACC foes. Despite modest expectations, Cal is already bowl eligible while Stanford is looking at a fifth consecutive three win season. By comparison, the Cardinal won four games in the Covid impacted 2020 season. Stanford has pulled a few upsets at home (Boston College and Florida State), but both those teams had to travel from distant lands to face the Cardinal. Cal plays in Palo Alto every other season and have actually been quite successful on The Farm under Justin Wilcox. The Bears are 4-0 ATS on the road against Stanford, having won the past three in the series. Those three victories have come in a similar role (small underdog or small favorite). The Bears have the better quarterback, the better defense, and both teams are off byes, so there is no rest or travel advantage. Cal is 2-1 in their three ACC road games this season, with the loss coming in overtime. I like the Bears to win by at least a touchdown and clinch a winning campaign. 

Cincinnati +2.5 BYU

On Halloween, Cincinnati was 7-1, unbeaten in Big 12 play, and had at least a puncher's chance at qualifying for the expanded College Football Playoff. Three weeks later, the Bearcats have dropped two in a row and the season is in danger of falling off the rails in a scene eerily reminiscent of their first two Big 12 campaigns. In 2023, the Bearcats began the season 2-0 with a cupcake FCS win and a victory against former Big East rival Pitt. They lost nine of their last ten games. Last year, they began the season 5-2 with tight losses to Pitt and Texas Tech. Included among those five victories, was a win against eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State. Alas, the Bearcats dropped their final five games en route to missing out on the postseason. Can they avoid a similar swoon in 2025? The Bearcats have only lost once at home this season. Unfortunately, for those afflicted with recency bias, that loss came last week to Arizona. Don't look now, but the Wildcats may be playing the best ball in the Big 12 outside of Lubbock and Salt Lake City. For comparison's sake, Cincinnati was laying between five and six points to Arizona, a team I have similarly power rated to BYU. The Cougars are not seven points better than those Wildcats. BYU has only been favored in three previous Big 12 road games since joining the conference in 2023. They are 1-2 ATS in those games. The Big 12 has too much parity for there to be no drama down the stretch as the title game participants are decided. The Bearcats will win this game outright.