The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

Another winning week. That makes three in the past four weeks. I am backing a lot of favorites this week, with some on the wrong side of the hook. What could possibly go wrong?        

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 35-32-3

Rice -2 Tulane

This spread tells you all you need to know about how the betting market currently views the Tulane football team. The Green Wave, a College Football Playoff participant last season, are underdogs on the road against a team that has not won an FBS game in more than a full calendar year. At 4-5, Tulane seems like a mediocre team on the surface, but look under the hood and that record could be so much worse. The Green Wave have beaten two bad Sun Belt teams (South Alabama and Southern Miss) by a combined seven points at home. They also beat one of the worst teams in FBS (Charlotte) on the road in overtime. Their lone victory of note came at home against Memphis in a game where they forced six turnovers (forced ten total on the season) and took one of the interceptions back for a touchdown. The Tulane program is in a free fall under head coach Will Hall, having just lost by fifty at home to Tulsa. A rematch of last year's American Conference Championship Game awaits next week against North Texas and the Green Wave close the season with a road trip to South Florida. They are looking down the barrel of a 4-8 season. Rice won't have many more chances to get in the winner's circle this season, so I expect a max effort against a Tulane team headed in the wrong direction. Back the Owls laying this small number. 

Indiana -7.5 Southern Cal

Indiana currently owns the second best per play offense in Big 10 play (6.43 yards per play), but the Hoosiers have struggled to convert those gaudy yardage totals into points. Outside of a get right game against the atrocious Rutgers defense, the Hoosiers have scored just twenty points per game in their other five Big 10 games. For comparison, they averaged nearly 42 points per game in their nine regular season Big 10 games last season. The big culprit for their decline is their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. The Hoosiers have scored touchdowns on just more than half (13 of 24) red zone possessions in Big 10 play. Take out the Rutgers game and those numbers fall below fifty percent (7 of 16). Things are likely to improve over the final third of their conference slate. Likely obviously does not mean guaranteed, but I like their odds, especially against a South Cal team that has struggled when traveling across time zones in Big 10 play. In Big 10 games played outside of the west coast, the Trojans are 4-5 straight up with their wins coming against Purdue and Nebraska last season and Rutgers and Penn State this season. If this was pre-Cignetti Indiana, this would likely be win number five, but the Hoosiers have been contenders since Cigs showed up in 2024. And you are getting them at a number reminiscent of their pre-championship point spreads. Before the betting market realized how good Indiana was, they were single digit favorite in their first three Big 10 homes games under Cignetti against Maryland, Nebraska, and Washington. They won all three of those games by at least two touchdowns. I expect more of the same here with the Hoosiers off a bye. Indiana inserted Grant Wilson into the lineup after Josh Hoover was ineffective (and perhaps injured) in their last game against Minnesota. I think Wilson gets the start here and I expect a more vintage Indiana performance as they win by at least two scores. 

Michigan +11 Oregon

Are you getting value on a great Michigan defense or have the Wolverines given up on the season following a home loss to Michigan State? I'm inclined to believe there is a little fight left in Michigan. Last week's loss to the Spartans marked their largest margin of defeat (nine points) on the season. Michigan has not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season and collectively, the Wolverines are allowing under 17 points per game. Plus, Oregon's victory in The Horseshoe last week was not as dominant as the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Ducks (413 to 395) and averaged more yards per play (5.82 to 5.34). Ohio State had four hidden turnovers (0 for 4 on fourth down conversions) and the game turned on a fake punt. If you examine the season as a whole, Michigan actually has a better per play differential (+ 0.26 to + 0.19) in Big 10 action than the Ducks. Maybe the firing of offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer is all the Ducks needed to turn their season around. Or maybe they benefitted from playing Northwestern and being +5 in turnovers (including net fourth down conversions) against Ohio State. I'm fully prepared for Michigan to march into Autzen Stadium and roll over, but I think Kyle Whittingham will be able to coax a fine defensive performance from the Wolverines. Oregon is still quarterbacked by Dylan Raiola last I checked. The Patrick Mahomes cosplayer has not thrown an interception in over a mont., I think the Wolverines force a few Raiola mistakes and keep this close. 

San Jose State +12 Air Force

I like to fade teams as favorites when they are coming off outright upsets. And that is exactly the position Air Force is in this week after beating Army as a slight underdog to clinch the Commander in Chiefs Trophy. San Jose State also plays pretty good run defense and ranks in the top 25 nationally in tackles for loss per game, something a defense needs to be adept at if they are going to shut down the unique Air Force option. And lets not forget that Air Force is on their backup quarterback. Liam Szarka was injured in their victory against Navy in early October and Evan Medders has seen the bulk of the action in his absence. He has played well, but I think the offense is slightly downgraded without Szarka. Finally, San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo is intimately familiar with the option offense, having spent a decade and a half as head coach at the Naval Academy. In his two games against Air Force as coach of the Spartans, the Falcons have scored 33 total points. I expect a low-scoring affair in Colorado Springs, so back the Spartans catching double digits. 

Louisville -3.5 North Carolina

The college football season is short and close game play a major factor in our perception of teams. Consider Louisville. The Cardinals began the season ranked 24th in the preseason AP Poll, lost a tight game to Ole Miss at a neutral site in their opener and rose to 16th after a 2-1 start. They lost two in a row, by three points apiece to Wake Forest and NC State to fall out of the national consciousness. Since then, they have reeled off four consecutive wins by an average of nearly 22 points per game. Granted, none of those victories came against a true quality opponent, so no one noticed. However, if we change a few plays here and there in their first five games, Louisville is perhaps 8-1 with a chance to make the College Football Playoff. As it is, they have to hope for SMU to beat Wake Forest (definitely possible) and pray the tiebreaker gods find in their favor when the regular season ends. Anyway, I mention all that about Louisville because this spread seems light to me. I was expecting them to be laying a touchdown or perhaps double digits in Chapel Hill. Don't get me wrong, North Carolina is massively improved in their second season under Bill Belichick, but despite having offensive guru and motorcycle enthusiast Bobby Petrino on staff, this team wins ugly, low-scoring affairs. In their seven games against power conference opponents, the Tar Heels have averaged under 24 points per game. Their high water mark came two weeks ago against a depleted Miami defense when the Hurricanes had a much bigger opponent on deck. I don't think North Carolina will be able to score much above their average, and Louisville should be able to score at least 30 points in their sleep. Its always dicey laying points on the road, but check out North Carolina's (short) home history under Belichick. They have won three games at home in his nearly two seasons in charge. Two of those victories came against FCS opponents. Their lone FBS win? Stanford, last season. Take the Cardinals as small road chalk. 

Arizona +2.5 Utah

I think this is your classic letdown spot for Utah. The Utes won the Holy War last week, beating BYU for the first time since 2019. The Utes won, but they were outgained by the Cougars (391 to 330) and averaged fewer yards per play (6.11 to 5.32). Meanwhile, Arizona almost lost at home to TCU, needing to recover a pooch onside kick to eke out the win, but they were much more dominant on the field than they were on the scoreboard. They outgained the Horned Frogs 441 to 281 and averaged nearly two more yards per play (6.30 to 4.53). In fact, the Wildcats have outgained their six Big 12 opponents by nearly a yard and a half per play (+1.44) while Utah has only outgained their conference foes by 0.29 yards per play. Those numbers don't befit a team with an unbeaten conference record and I think that unbeaten streak ends in Tucson on Saturday night. 

Oklahoma State -3.5 Texas Tech

Last week I faded Texas Tech because their defense significantly regressed (as expected) from last season's elite unit. They managed to beat West Virginia outright (because Rich Rodriguez is a coward), but did not come close to covering the massive spread. Now they travel to Stillwater to face the most prolific per play offense in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is currently averaging north of eight yards per play against Big 12 defenses (more than a yard clear of second place Cincinnati). The Cowboys also have a (slightly) better per play defense than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have played three true road games all season and have averaged under five yards per play against those defenses. Colorado (surprisingly) has a decent defense, but Cincinnati and Oregon State are somewhere between below average and bad. Oklahoma State is going to score, having not been held below 32 points since their weird opening loss at Tulsa. The Cowboys also probably have revenge on their mind, having lost to Texas Tech 42-0 in Lubbock last season. I like another small favorite laying around a field goal. What could possibly go wrong? 

The Magnificent Seven: Week X

We finished a perfectly average 3-3-1 last week. I thought we deserved a little better, but we're on to Cincinnati.       

Last Week: 3-3-1

Overall: 31-29-3

Nevada +9.5 New Mexico

New Mexico did not show up in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but they did manage to sneak into the AP Poll for the first time in school history. Jason Eck probably has a month or so left in his tenure in Albuquerque, so lets enjoy this magical run at a place with a dearth of successful football history. Unfortunately, their run as a ranked team might be short. I think they are in serious danger of losing this game outright on Friday night. The team has struggled to score points in the past few games, posting just 63 total points in their last three (scored 21 in each). The defense is one of the best in the Group of Six, but Nevada has one of the better defenses in the Mountain West as well. The Wolfpack need to win three of their final four games to clinch a bowl berth in Jeff Choate's third season. I expect a relatively raucous atmosphere in Reno on Friday night when a ranked conference opponent comes to town. The over/under on this game is just 37. That implies roughly a 23-14 New Mexico victory. I don't know if the Lobos will be able to score that many points. Take the American pack of wolves to cover against their Spanish brethren. 

BYU +5 Utah

They call this game The Holy War, but any Simpsons fan should know that neither of these teams is following the one true faith, The Western Branch of American Reform Presbylutheranism. But I digress. Regardless of the beliefs of the players, coaches, fans, and yes even officials involved in this game, this may end up being one of the most impactful editions of this rivalry. Both teams are alive in the race for the Big 12 Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. A few weeks ago, BYU engineered the biggest regular season victory in school history when they knocked off Notre Dame. The following week they lost at UCF, which was quite detrimental to their conference title hopes. Meanwhile, despite a couple of close calls, the Utes are unbeaten both overall and in Big 12 play. Despite their unblemished record, Utah has not played well defensively. Big 12 teams are averaging 6.13 yards per play against the Utes (tenth of sixteen teams in the Big 12). Despite those poor per play numbers, Utah has not allowed as many points as one might expect. The primary driver for that disconnect is red zone and fourth down performance. Big 12 teams have entered the red zone fifteen times against Utah. They have scored touchdowns on those drives less than half the time (7). Big 12 teams have also converted just three of twelve fourth down attempts against the Utes. Maybe the Utes really do have an ability to tighten things up in high leverage situations, but I think the more likely explanation is randomness in a small sample size. All things being equal, I would expect Utah to not perform as well defensively in the red zone or on fourth down for the remainder of the season. BYU has the better defense, a better per play margin in Big 12 action, and is catching points in a contentious rivalry where they have won three in a row. I expect a close game in Salt Lake City, so back the Cougars.  

Alabama +4.5 LSU

This game on Saturday represents a pretty significant milestone in this series as LSU is favored for the first time since 2007 (Nick Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa). These teams have very similar statistical profiles in conference play, with Alabama featuring a slightly better per play offense and LSU a slightly better per play defense. Alabama has outgained SEC foes by 1.32 yards per play and LSU is besting their conference opponents by 1.37 yards per play. Consider the teams even and give LSU three points or so for homefield and that does not get us to this number. In addition, Alabama has posted those numbers against a more difficult schedule. The Tide and Tigers have both faced Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. In their other three conference games, Alabama has battled Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Meanwhile LSU has played Auburn and Ole Miss. Auburn does have a victory against then number one Georgia, but outside of that random result, the Tigers' lone SEC victory has come against Vanderbilt. And while we're discussing schedule strength, Alabama faced Mississippi State when they had Kamario Taylor at quarterback. LSU got to face the rotting husk of that offense after Taylor was injured. If Alabama wins this game, they can pretty much punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff, and maybe the SEC Championship Game. Their remaining schedule consists of Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, and Auburn. The Iron Bowl can get weird and close, but usually not in Tuscaloosa. Meanwhile, LSU has games left against Texas and Tennessee and a brief respite at Arkansas. Both teams are off a bye, but Alabama can charge up the Death Star while LSU must keep a little in reserve for what remains over the next couple of weeks. Finally, since becoming an FBS head coach in 2020, Kalen DeBoer's teams are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog with five outright wins. He might blow a game here or there as a favorite, but his teams strive in the underdog role. Take the Ride to roll through the bayou on Saturday.

Kansas -3 UCF

If Kansas misses out on a bowl game, they will probably rue last week's loss at TCU. Up 13-0 in the second half, the Jayhawks threw a pick six to let TCU back in the game and after retaking the lead late, they allowed the Horned Frogs to drive the length of the field for the winning touchdown. Lost in the defeat was the fact that Kansas posted the best offensive performance by far against TCU's stout defense. The Horned Frogs had not allowed any team to gain more than 322 yards against them. Kansas gained 451. A bowl game is still an outside possibility, but to entertain any thoughts of postseason play, they must beat a UCF team that followed up their historic upset of BYU with a massive egg laying against Baylor and their interim coach. Since joining the Big 12 in 2023, UCF is 2-14 straight up on the road. In fact, since beating TCU in Fort Worth in 2024, the Knights have lost twelve in a row away from the Bounce House with the average loss coming by nearly two touchdowns. None of the twelve losses would have been close enough to cover this number. The Jayhawks lost a Big 12 home game thanks to their London trip, so this is just their second conference home game of the season. They roll here. 

Louisiana Tech -4.5 Troy

A few years ago, Sonny Cumbie seemed like he might be on his way out at Louisiana Tech. Three seasons in, he had not posted a winning record and the Bulldogs were 11-26 under his watch (8-16 in conference play). The Bulldogs got a surprise bowl invite after the 2024 season despite a 5-7 record and since then, things have gone pretty well in Ruston. The Bulldogs were 7-5 in the regular season in 2025, beat Coastal Carolin in their backyard in the Independence Bowl, and jumped to the Sun Belt in the offseason. They have yet to lose a game in Sun Belt play. They began the season 1-2 with losses to LSU and Baylor, but have reeled off five consecutive wins and while it is admittedly a longshot, if the Bulldogs keep winning they could be on the short list of Group of Six teams in line for the College Football Playoff (mostly be default). That is of course, a long way off, but they at least seem like the best team in the Sun Belt West and could go a long way toward locking up the division by beating last season's West champ Troy. The Trojans earned a miraculous win at James Madison last week to stay alive in the Sun Belt race, but they were +4 in turnovers and benefitted from the Dukes continually blowing opportunities to put the game away. Outside of a fantastic showing against Southern Miss, Troy has averaged under sixteen points per game against FBS opponents. Louisiana Tech has the best per play defense in the Sun Belt, so if the Bulldogs can score in the low to mid-twenties, they should cover this game.  

Air Force +3 Army

Air Force has dropped the past three meetings in this series and the Falcons are playing with their third string quarterback after injuries have sidelined their starter and his backup. Still, I don't think people are hip to how bad this Army defense is. American Conference opponents have averaged nearly seven yards per play against the Black Knights and they are quite fortunate to enter this game with a winning record. The Air Force defense will not make anyone forget the 1985 Chicago Bears, but they are superior on that side of the ball. However, the only thing you need to do when two service academies get together is to take the under and back the dog. Since we don't do totals on this blog, our only option is the underdog. Air Force has already beaten Navy this season and a victory here would clinch the prestigious Commander in Chief's Trophy for the Falcons. Air Force is undervalued since they are on their third quarterback, but he ran the offense fine last week against Connecticut. Touchdowns will be at premium in this spot, so take the team catching points. 

West Virginia +17 Texas Tech

Texas Tech is a good team in 2026. They were a great, national title worthy team (at least defensively) in 2025. Last season, they allowed eleven total touchdowns in nine Big 12 games. Through five Big 12 games this season, they have allowed fifteen total touchdowns. Last season, Big 12 foes gained slightly more than four yards per play (4.09) against an elite Red Raider defense. This season, Big 12 opponents have gained 5.66 yards per play against a solid, but hardly elite Red Raider defense. The drop off makes sense when you consider that Texas Tech had six defensive starters from last year's team selected in the NFL Draft, including four in the first three rounds. A unit that was impossible to run on last season has shown some cracks in 2026. Two weeks ago, Cincinnati rushed for over 250 yards at more than six yards a pop in an upset win over the Red Raiders. I think Texas Tech could see West Virginia put up similar numbers, especially considering the Mountaineers are off a bye while Texas Tech in in the midst of a rough stretch. The Red Raiders lost the aforementioned game to Cincinnati two weeks ago before besting Arizona last week. They travel to Oklahoma State next week, so they could be looking ahead to that game. Unfortunately, West Virginia is probably not going to be able to win this game outright because their defense is so bad. Their pass defense has been torched by pretty much every FBS opponent they have faced. Cumulatively, they are allowing more than ten yards per pass (10.45) against FBS teams. Their run defense, while not good, is at least merely bad, and not historically bad. That should pair better against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders went to Thomas Castellanos at quarterback last week and while he raises their floor, his passing limitations lowers their ceiling. Both teams should keep the ball on the ground which means fewer possessions and less time for Texas Tech to get margin. West Virginia won't get enough stops to win outright, but their offense should score enough to stay within three scores. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

Back to back winning weeks have us above water for the first time all year. Still not quite at the break even mark (.524), but pretty close. I didn't see a lot of games I liked this week, so tread lightly.         

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 28-26-2

Charlotte +10 Tulane

My hands are quivering as a type this, but I think Charlotte might be live to not only cover, but win outright against Tulane. Hear me out. I have had it out for Tulane ever since they followed up their fantastic hires of Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall with the uninspired hire of Will Hall. Tulane's performance this season has done nothing to move me off those priors. The Green Wave are 3-4 with tight home wins against teams they have more talent than (South Alabama and Southern Miss) and a multi-score home win fueled mostly by turnovers against Memphis. However, they are 0-3 on the road which continues a trend Hall started at Southern Miss. Under his tutelage, the Golden Eagles were 5-19 straight up on the road. They were road favorites just two times, posting a 1-1 ATS mark. However, this is by far the most points a team coached by Will Hall has laid on the road. While Tulane comes into this game on a short week, Charlotte had last week off after winning their first game of the season at Temple two weeks ago. In that game, the 49ers started Conner Harrell for the second time on the season and he played well, avoiding turnovers that limited his predecessor Cole Gonzales. Charlotte is putrid on defense, but I think they score enough to keep this one close. 

UAB +8 South Florida

The Bulls and Blazers both enter this game off byes as they look to close the season strong and qualify for bowl games. UAB is still technically in the conference race at 2-1, but they are clearly below the current trio at the top of the standings (Memphis, North Texas, and UTSA). I know Army is technically up there too, but the Black Knights have been getting away with it. If they beat Memphis this week, we'll consider them legitimate contenders. But I digress. UAB needs two more wins to qualify for their first bowl game since 2022. The Blazers were bowl eligible in the first six seasons since they restarted the program in 2017 under Bill Clark and later Bryant Vincent. The team was mostly a joke under Trent Dilfer, but have been much more competitive under Alex Mortensen who took over midway through last season. The Blazers are 6-7 straight up under Mortensen and after only winning nine games in two and a half seasons under Dilfer. Despite facing two of the better offenses in the American through their first three conference games (Memphis and Navy), the Blazers have played well defensively, holding conference foes under five yards per play. I don't expect South Florida to do a great deal of damage against the solid UAB defense. The Bulls have been held below thirty points against every FBS opponent they have faced and have scored fewer than twenty points on three occasions. This feels like a low-scoring ugly game with a lot of punts and a dearth of touchdowns. Back the team getting more than a touchdown in this spot. 

Bowling Green +13 Western Michigan

Western Michigan is 5-3 and has a shot to play for its second consecutive MAC title in about five weeks. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 2-6 and another loss away from starting the Eddie George era with back to back losing seasons. However, if you squint, you can see the Falcons have improved significantly since their 0-4 start. Bowling Green faced two power conference opponents (Nebraska and Iowa State) and the current top ranked team in FCS (Tarleton State) in their first three games and scored 27 combined points. They followed that up with a competitive home loss to South Florida where they still only managed six points. For those scoring at home, the Falcons had scored 33 total points in their first four games. Since the start of MAC play, the Falcons have scored at least 24 points in each game and are averaging just over 29 points per game! Western Michigan is a MAC team last I checked, and one that is not as good, especially on defense, as the one that won the MAC last season. Bowling Green has not lost a game to a non-power conference opponent by more than eight points this season. I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. 

Temple +6 East Carolina

Temple beat South Florida four weeks ago to improve to 2-3 and position themselves for a bowl game. Two home losses as a favorite later and a bowl game is very much in doubt. The Owls have played better than their 2-5 record and have been a bit unfortunate. They are 1-3 in one-score games and have actually outgained their three conference opponents by almost two yards per play. Meanwhile, East Carolina has struggled offensively after losing last year's starting quarterback, Katin Houser, to the transfer portal. After averaging over thirty points per game against FBS competition last season, the Pirates are averaging just over 22 points per game against FBS opponents this season. KC Keeler is 9-5 ATS as an FBS coach at Sam Houston State and Temple. His teams thrive in this role and expect them to play much better off the bye and keep this one close. 

Colorado State +6.5 Utah State

This is the ultimate battle of the resistible force versus the movable object. Colorado State has not been able to stop a nose bleed defensively, permitting an astounding nine yards per play in their three Pac-12 games. In their past five games overall, the Rams have allowed 271 total points! They did manage to win their most recent affair against San Diego State though to snap a four game skid. Quarterback Hauss Hejny returned last week against the Aztecs and accounted for five touchdowns and over 400 total yards. The Rams will likely need his heroics again even though the defense is poised to have their best showing in nearly two months. Utah State has not scored more than 21 points in any game this season and are averaging just under fifteen points per game for the year. They lost their opener to an FCS team and the two teams they managed to vanquish this season (Troy and Washington State) own a combined two FBS wins between them. Utah State should put up their best offensive performance of the season, but even if they manage to win this game outright, I don't see how the margin is a touchdown or more. Back the Rams despite their massive defensive issues. 

Clemson +6 Florida State

The Seminoles and Tigers enter this game with a combined seven losses! A few years ago, this game would have been an ABC primetime clash. Now they are relegated to the ACC Network. Clemson has dominated this series in the past decade, winning nine of the past ten. Several of those wins were by elite Clemson teams, but even post 2020, the Tigers are 4-1 against the Seminoles, winning twice in Tallahassee. In face, the Seminoles have not beaten the Tigers in Tallahassee since 2014. Do you feel comfortable laying nearly a touchdown with Florida State? Their defense has allowed nearly seven yards per play to ACC opponents (worst in the conference). They played well in their Super Bowl two weeks ago against Miami, but I think this is too many points against a Clemson team that still plays good (although not elite) defense. 

San Diego State -2.5 Washington State

Allow me to begin by saying that San Diego State is not a good football team. The Aztecs have followed up an impressive 9-4 campaign by starting 3-5 and leaving themselves little margin for error to get back to a bowl game. However, four of the five defeats have come to teams that are currently in position to play in their respective conference championship games (James Madison, Oregon State, Toledo, and UCLA). The Aztecs are also 3-1 at home and have won nine of ten at home in Snapdragon Stadium over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Washington State is winless on the road and winless against FBS opponents in Kirby Moore's first season on the Palouse. The Cougars have beaten Duquesne, but have struggled to score points against FBS competition, averaging under fifteen points per game against teams outside of the Dukes. This is the ninth consecutive game for both teams with a bye looming next week. At 1-7, Washington State is merely playing for pride while San Diego State still has a chance at a bowl game. I like the Aztecs to cover this microscopic number. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

We had a solid 4-2-1 week with both of our losses coming via the hook (and one in overtime). Oh, what could have been. We'll take it though.         

Last Week: 4-2-1

Overall: 23-24-2

California +20 SMU

The Golden Bears are an ugly dog and there are a lot of rumors swirling around the program regarding their star quarterback so this pick may age like box wine left out in the sun, but I like to dumpster dive sometimes. Let's go over the reasons I think Cal could keep this within three touchdowns. For starters, this is the bottom of the market for Cal. The Golden Bears were throttled at home in a great spot against Wake Forest last week. The Demon Deacons scored the first 41 points in that game en route to an easy win and cover in Berkeley. Secondly, SMU has low-key struggled (relatively) on offense this season. In their first season in the ACC (2024), the Mustangs averaged 38.2 points per game against power conference opponents. Last season, they averaged 32.5 points per game against power conference opponents. This season, they are only averaging 26.5 points per game in their four contests against power conference opponents. If the Mustangs struggle to get to thirty points, a lone Cal touchdown could be enough for them to cover this big number. Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi may end up being a one and done head coach based on how the last five games of the season shake out for the Bears, but I think they awake from hibernation and give a better effort this week. 

Toledo -3 Western Michigan

This game will go a long way toward determining the participants in the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan is unbeaten in MAC play, having won seven in a row in league play since losing to Miami last season. The defending MAC champs should be favored in their final four conference games, so an unbeaten MAC regular season is on the table if they can upset the Rockets. Meanwhile, this is a must win spot for Toledo. The Rockets lost at home to Buffalo as massive favorites two weeks ago and still have a trip to Ohio remaining on the schedule, so a loss here would make them underdogs to even reach Detroit on the first weekend in December. Outside of their inexplicable loss to Buffalo, Toledo has played better than Western Michigan against a marginally more difficult schedule. Western Michigan wants to keep the ball on the ground (they threw eight passes last week and have run the ball nearly 63% of the time in 2026), but Toledo should be able to keep them in check. I like the Rockets to win and cover in this spot. 

Central Michigan +2.5 Miami

This game seems like it should be played on a Tuesday or Wednesday night, but we are still a week or so away from November and the start of MACtion. Miami has played in the past three MAC Championship Games, and while the Redhawks are still technically alive in the conference race, that is more a function of their schedule rather than their team strength. The Redhawks have faced Akron (the worst MAC team outside of Sacramento State), Massachusetts (in their first game without Pop Watson at quarterback), and Bowling Green (who they lost to). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has also faced Akron, but their other two conference games have come against a pair of teams that are a combined 10-4 on the season (6-0 in MAC play) in Ohio and Western Michigan. Miami is also dealing with quarterback injuries and you can see it in their passing stats. In their past two games, the Redhawks have completed 14 of 36 passes (39%) for 160 yards (4.4 yards per pass). They have also allowed four sacks in those games, losing an additional thirty yards in the process. Add it all up and the Redhawks have dropped back to pass 40 times in the past two weeks and have netted 130 yards (3.3 yards per pass). Their passing attack is the apocryphal 'three yards and a cloud of dust'. They won both those games because they were +4 in turnovers. Being favored on the road while having quarterback issues against a team that has played a more difficult schedule is the recipe for an outright underdog win. 

Boston College +4 Georgia Tech

As I mentioned last week, Boston College has quietly been solid defensively. After allowing nearly 33 points per game last season, the Eagles are allowing just 23 points per game this season and have not allowed more than 25 points in any game since their opener at Cincinnati. Division II transfer quarterback Mason McKenzie also had his best game as a passer last week against Pitt when the former Saginaw Valley State player threw for 295 yards and averaged over ten yards per pass. I expect him to have another solid game against a weak Georgia Tech defense. Consider this. After a solid defensive performance against Colorado in their opener, the Yellow Jackets allowed 45 points to Tennessee. The Vols have averaged 22.8 points per game in their other contests against power four teams. They allowed 34 points to Stanford. The Cardinal have averaged under six points per game in their other games against power four teams. The Yellow Jackets did hold Duke below their average against power conference opponents (scored 25 and averaged 28.7 in their other power conference games), but last week, Virginia Tech moved the ball at will and accumulated 34 points after averaging 27.3 points per game in their other power conference contests. I think Boston College could score thirty for the first time this season. The Yellow Jackets have also performed poorly as a home favorite under head coach Brent Key. They are 5-8 ATS with six outright losses. I think Boston College could get their fourth win of the season on Saturday and cash their preseason win total of 3.5. 

Vanderbilt +11 Kentucky

Kentucky has won five in a row, with four of those wins coming against SEC opponents. Since the SEC expanded in 1992, the Wildcats have never finished with more than five SEC wins. Obviously, if Kentucky performs as the betting market predicts, they will equal that conference win mark before Halloween. After conference clashes with Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma, this should be a cakewalk right? As the great Lee Corso might say, 'Not so fast, my friend'. Since 2010, these teams have faced off eight times in Lexington. Kentucky has entered that game as a double digit favorite six times. They have covered once in that role and have lost outright twice, including the past two meetings. Vanderbilt's home loss to Arkansas last week likely cost them a shot at a bowl game, but they are still a dangerous team, covering in both of their road games this season. Under Clark Lea, they are 16-8-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 8-1-1 since 2024. Kentucky has some glossy point totals on their resume, but if we strip out their overtime scores against South Carolina and LSU, they are averaging 24.6 points per game in SEC play. If the Commodores can score a couple of touchdowns, they should be able to cover this number. 

Syracuse +8 North Carolina

North Carolina is a contender in the ACC conference race. That statement may be misleading and dishonest, but it is also technically true. Off back to back conference wins, the Tar Heels are 2-1 in the ACC, matching last season's conference and overall win total at the season's midpoint. Their run of contention probably ends next week when they host Miami, but then again, Mario Cristobal is always good for at least one stinker each season. But before the Tar Heels can get hyped to host the likely number one team in the country, they must take care of business against a Syracuse team that has lost eleven straight conference games under head coach Fran Brown. While the losses have mounted this season, Syracuse has been kept things close for the most part. Three of their four defeats have come by one possession and they have been outscored by 28 total points in those games. By contrast, all three of North Carolina's FBS wins have come by five points or less. The Tar Heels have played well in the clutch, but their offense is limited and they have not been able to get margin on teams. They have played fifteen games against power conference opponents under Bill Belichick, and have averaged just over 18 points per game in those contests, never eclipsing 27 points. This game should be played in the high teens or low twenties. I would be shocked if North Carolina scores more than 24 points in this game. In addition, North Carolina's success this season has come as a betting underdog. They have been underdogs in all five of their FBS games (won three outright and covered in four). This marks just the second time they have been favored against a power conference opponent under Belichick (previous time was last season against Stanford against whom they did not cover). I expect a low scoring somewhat boring game that Syracuse finds a way to yack up. 

UTSA -2.5 Tulane

Perhaps I need to cut Tulane a break and come off of my preseason priors when evaluating their performance this season. The Green Wave are 3-3 and are coming off a victory against league favorite Memphis. However, if you take a closer look at the box score, you see the Green Wave benefitted from six Memphis turnovers, including a pick-six that dramatically altered the flow and script of the game. I thought Tulane made a bad hire in Will Hall, a coach that performed poorly as the head man at Southern Miss (14-30 overall record). After knocking it out of the park with their last two hires (Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall), I felt the hire was uninspired and a great way to send Tulane back to the wasteland of college football, a place they occupied for most of the 21st century. A turnover fueled victory against a coach with a penchant for losing as a favorite (Charles Huff lost 23 regular season games as the head coach at Marshall and Southern Miss between 2021 and 2025 and 12 of those losses came as a betting favorite) does not dissuade me from that opinion. At 3-0 in the conference, UTSA is in the driver's seat for a spot in the American Championship Game, and potentially a darkhorse shot at the College Football Playoff. A bye for the Roadrunners is on the horizon, so they should be able to give maximum effort and beat the Green Wave by more than a field goal. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

Another losing week makes it four out of six in the red. After this week, we will be roughly halfway through the season. Time to turn this thing around.        

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 19-22-1

Indiana +3.5 Ohio State

The Hoosiers have looked mortal in their two games against legitimate competition in 2026. They held off Northwestern three weeks ago and then last week needed a fourth quarter rally to beat Nebraska last week. However, their underlying performance has still been excellent. Against the their three Big 10 opponents (the aforementioned foes and woebegone Rutgers), the Hoosiers have averaged 2.72 more yards per play. By contrast, Ohio State has faced Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland, and outgained those three teams by 2.10 yards per play. Nebraska and Northwestern both seem to be pretty good, while Illinois and Maryland are bad and worse. Curt Cignetti has lost two homes games as an FBS head coach, with both coming during his tenure at James Madison. He has never been a home underdog at the FBS level. Meanwhile, under head coach Ryan Day, in an admittedly small sample, the Buckeyes are just 1-2-1 as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. They lost both non-covers outright (2021 at Michigan and 2024 at Oregon). The Buckeyes have already shown they are fully capable of coughing up a winnable game on the road. I trust Curt Cignetti much more than I trust Ryan Day. Take the Hoosiers in a spot you are unlikely to see them again, as a home underdog. 

Boston College +6.5 Pittsburgh

Widely expected to be one of the worst power conference teams in 2026, Boston College has been quietly competent, especially on defense. After allowing 34 points in their opener at Cincinnati, the Eagles have held their next three FBS opponents to 25 points or less and have covered all three games. They were only able to win one outright thanks to an inconsistent offense. Quarterback Mason McKenzie, a Division II transfer, runs well (437 rushing yards), but is limited as a passer and makes too many mistakes. His supporting cast is also less than stellar. No player has more 169 receiving yards and the team's second leading rusher has 200 fewer yards on the ground than McKenzie. Still, the Eagles have been able to ugly up their games and with Pittsburgh coming to town with a backup quarterback, another ugly, low-scoring games seems to be on the horizon. The Panthers opened the season 5-0, but lost their starting quarterback in their victory against Virginia Tech. Their veteran backup, Holden Geriner, did not play well in his first start last week against North Carolina. The Panthers scored a touchdown on their opening drive and then hit a big pass early in the fourth quarter on another touchdown drive, but in between, the Panthers managed just three points. Without a barrage of turnovers from Boston College, its hard to envision the Panthers scoring more than 24 points. This should be a low-scoring field position battle. In that situation, I like the team catching nearly a touchdown. 

Ball State +6.5 Bowling Green

After an 0-4 start, Bowling Green is unbeaten in MAC play, having beaten seasoned MAC member Miami of Ohio and newcomer Sacramento State. The most recent victory against the Hornets was impressive, but seems to be more a testament to how bad Sacramento State is instead of any indication of greatness on the part of Bowling Green. While Bowling Green enters with some momentum, Ball State has dropped four in a row and has not beaten an FBS team this season. However, their schedule has been much tougher than Bowling Green's. The Cardinals have faced two good to great Big 10 teams (Northwestern and Ohio State), perhaps the best team in Conference USA (Liberty), and the most talented team in the MAC (Toledo). They also faced Kent State with their backup quarterback which is part of the reason they managed only thirteen points against the Golden Flashes. Their starting quarterback, Keldric Luster, should be good to go in this spot and he has played well against the non-power conference teams the Cardinals have faced. The Falcons victory over Sacramento State (basically an FCS team) is inflating this line and I expect Ball State to have a real shot to win this game outright. 

Massachusetts +6.5 Buffalo

In our ever changing world, its good to know some things are constant. For Mid-American Conference fans, that one constant is Toledo losing as a massive favorite. Buffalo upset the Rockets in Toledo last week as a nearly three touchdown underdog. Jason Candle may be gone to Connecticut, but his spirit lives on in northwestern Ohio. The victory was the first by the Bulls against an FBS opponent as they struggled to put away a pair of FCS teams earlier in the year (Albany and Robert Morris). While the Bulls prevailed, they have yet to put up world beating numbers on offense. Buffalo has scored 73 total points in their four games against FBS teams, with the 23 they scored against Toledo representing their high water mark. When a team struggles to exceed twenty points, asking them to lay almost a touchdown might be pushing it. Buffalo does get to face a diminished Minutemen squad in upstate New York. Two weeks ago, the Minutemen were undefeated and dreaming about a potential trip to Detroit in early December. Two losses and an injury to their starting quarterback later and the Minutemen are staring down the barrel of yet another losing season. Outside of Toledo and Western Michigan, the rest of the MAC is a lot of teams of similar quality. Buffalo is getting a little too much love in the betting market after beating a team that is regularly upset. I think this is another game where scoring is at a premium. Take the underdog catching nearly a touchdown.

Georgia Tech +10 Virginia Tech

After a rough opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech has quietly morphed back into the football team they always strive to be under head coach  and former offensive lineman Brent Key. The team rushed for 51 yards against Colorado, and averaged under two yards per carry. In their next three games against FBS competition, the Yellow Jackets have increased their per carry average, culminating in them averaging over six yards per rush against Duke last week. Quarterback Alberto Mendoza has also played well in every game save for Tennessee. At 2-3, Georgia Tech has made a bowl game a dicey proposition, but this team should be in every game the rest of the way, with the potential exception of Georgia. Meanwhile, after a hot start, Virginia Tech has cooled off. The Hokies have dropped their past two games, despite being solid favorites in both. The Hokies have not beaten a power conference team by more than nine points and that victory (Maryland) is looking worse and worse by the minute. Take the Yellow Jackets to keep this one close. 

Oklahoma State +5 Houston

Years from now when historians are perusing the 2026 college football season on sports-reference, one of the most inexplicable results will be Oklahoma State's loss to Tulsa. The Cowboys scored ten points against the Golden Hurricane and averaged less than five yards per pass. Since that defeat, Oklahoma State has scored 122 points in their three games against FBS competition. Meanwhile, Tulsa has dropped three of four games against FBS opponents while allowing 113 points in their last three games. There is no preseason in college football, so maybe that result is just a function of early season variance. When handicapping Oklahoma State, I would recommend tossing that game out. It has not had any predictive value for their other four games. Meanwhile, Houston is 5-1 with their lone loss coming on the road to defending Big 12 champion Texas Tech. However, Oklahoma State will represent the best offense Houston has faced this season. I don't think the Cougars will be able to get enough stops to cover this number. 

Navy +7 UTSA

Halfway through the 2026 season, the Roadrunners from San Antonio are 5-1 with their only loss coming at Texas. After a relatively disappointing first three seasons (at least compared to how they closed in Conference USA) in the American Conference, the Roadrunners have a great shot at playing in the conference title game. They are an indomitable force at home in the Alamodome, where they are 35-6 straight up under head coach Jeff Traylor. However, some of losses provide a clue into how this game could turn out. Three of their five home losses under Traylor have come to Army. The Midshipmen run a different variation of the triple option (specifically, the Wing T version), but they are difficult to prepare for and utilize strategies (going for it on fourth down and reducing the number of possessions) that introduce more variance and benefit the underdog. Navy is a tough luck 2-3 on the year, losing one possession games to Air Force, Florida Atlantic, and UAB. After finishing 5-0 in one possession games last season, they were due for some regression. Navy cannot throw the ball as well as they did over the past few seasons (especially when the opponent knows they are throwing) when they had the dynamic Blake Horvath playing quarterback, but I don't think they will fall far behind or face many third and longs. In addition, they have done a great job thus far of shutting down their opponents' running game. No team has been able to average four yards per carry against them. They should put the Roadrunners in enough third and longs and make enough stops to keep this one interesting. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

We in fact, did not start October strong. Let's see if we can bounce back.       

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 17-17-1

Wyoming +6 San Jose State

I'm always wary backing Wyoming away from Laramie. Under head coach Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys are just 3-12 straight up in true road games, including 0-3 this season. However, I don't think this line is properly accounting for the brutal travel spot the home team occupies. The Spartans played at Hawaii last week and upset the Rainbow Warriors while improving to 3-2 on the season. Now they have to travel back to San Jose and face a conference rival on a short week. Since 2021, fourteen FBS teams have traveled to Hawaii and then played another game against an FBS opponent the following week. Those teams are 6-8 straight up, but 3-11 ATS. Favorites performed a bit better, posting a 6-3 straight up record, but they were just 3-6 ATS. The sample size is small, but this line is probably inflated by a point or two. In addition, while Wyoming has been quite poor in road games the past few seasons, San Jose State does not have the offensive firepower to run away and hide. The Spartans have not scored more than 27 points against an FBS team this season. I expect this to be an ugly game that is played in the high teens or low twenties. As the Cowboys are catching nearly a full touchdown, they are the play. 

North Carolina +3.5 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh upset Virginia Tech last week to move to 5-0 and makes themselves a player in the ACC conference race. However, in the process, they also lost their starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a season ending injury. Holden Geriner came in and played well in relief in the upset win. Geriner previously saw limited action for Auburn and Texas State, so this game against North Carolina will be the first extended action of his career. I think Bill Belichick, even an aged, Belichick, can concoct a gameplan to induce some turnovers from the old, but inexperienced quarterback. Pitt was also very fortunate to win the game against the Hokies irrespective of their quarterback injuries. The Panthers were outgained by 200 yards and averaged two fewer yards per play than the Hokies. However, they were +4 in the turnover margin. Even with the turnover advantage, Virginia Tech still had to miss a very makeable field goal to keep Pitt unbeaten. North Carolina has been better than expected this season, beating TCU in Ireland, having Clemson on the ropes in Death Valley, and acquitting themselves reasonably well against Notre Dame. A bowl game is not out of the question and the only surefire loss remaining on the schedule is against Miami. I expect the Tar Heels to be play well and keep this game within a field goal. The series history also seems to favor North Carolina. The Panthers are just 3-6 against the Tar Heels under Pat Narduzzi, including 2-3 in Pittsburgh.

Vanderbilt +9.5 Ole Miss

After the 2023 season, Clark Lea threw up his own Hail Mary and imported various pieces of the New Mexico State team to Nashville. The most famous of those pieces was Heisman finalist Diego Pavia, but he was not the only one. Two of the more important additions don't play at all. New Mexico State head coach, and all around revitalization expert, Jerry Kill has been a consultant since 2024 and Tim Beck (not the former Coastal Carolina coach) has been the offensive coordinator for the same amount of time. Kill and Beck have made the Commodores dangerous underdogs. Vanderbilt plays slow, runs the ball, and goes for it on fourth down a lot. In Clark Lea's first three season, Vanderbilt was 12-17 ATS as an underdog, with three outright wins. Since the start of the 2024 season, Vanderbilt is 12-3-1 ATS with seven outright wins. Those splits hold when catching more than a touchdown (as they are in this spot). In Lea's first three seasons, the Commodores were 11-16 ATS with two outright wins. Since the import, they are 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. The Commodores have covered both games they entered as an underdog this season, playing an even game with Auburn on The Plains, but losing thanks to a blocked punt touchdown and covering as a massive underdog between the hedges in Athens. Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense, but their defense has issues. Teams not named Charlotte have scored 114 points on the Rebels in three games. Its hard to win by margin when the defense doesn't get any stops. A two touchdown lead late for Ole Miss will not be safe as the backdoor should be wide open for Vanderbilt to step through. 

Illinois -2.5 Michigan State

This one almost seems too easy right? Michigan State has been listless since opening the season with victories against two MAC schools. The Spartans have scored 26 total points in their past three games and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is on a personal twelve game losing skid against power conference opponents. That streak runs to eighteen games in the continental United States (last win against Nebraska in Ireland). Illinois is desperate, having lost their past three games to FBS teams, including upset home losses to Duke and Purdue. There are three ranked teams remaining on the schedule as well as an ascendant Northwestern and an unbeaten Nebraska, so the Illini are very much in danger of missing out on a bowl game altogether. If Illinois is able to score in the mid-20s, which I expect they will with their potent offense, Michigan State should not be able to keep up. 

Rice +10 East Carolina

The Owls have followed the Pirates to bigger and better conferences over the the past couple of decades. Rice joined Conference USA in 2005, eight seasons after the Pirates gave up their life of Independence in 1997. East Carolina left Conference USA in 2014 and joined the American. Rice hung out in the Conference USA wasteland for nearly another decade before joining the Pirates once again. The teams have only met once as American opponents, with Rice winning by seven in Houston in 2023. Things are very different now, with the Owls on a new coach and operating a variant of the option (to not great success). East Carolina is also led by a different head coach. Blake Harrell is the lead privateer after a solid first full season in charge, regression seems to have boarded the ship. The Pirates slipped by Old Dominion in Norfolk a few weeks ago and pounded North Carolina Central in their last game, but the offense has floundered, scoring 24 points or less in all three games against FBS competition. Despite their lack of success, Rice will keep the ball on the ground and reduce the number of possessions in this game, something one should look for in an underdog. The Pirates don't have the offense to put this game away, and I expect Rice to do enough to stay within striking distance. 

North Dakota State -3 UNLV

So far, FBS life has been easy for the Bison. After dominating FCS for the better part of two decades, North Dakota State made the decision to join the Mountain West in 2026. The decision came as a bit of a surprise, at least in its suddenness, but the results have been great thus far. The Bison are 5-0 and have won four of their games by double digits. They probably need the teams ahead of them in the Group Of Six pecking order to lose (Boise State and perhaps James Madison and Memphis), but they have a realistic shot to make the College Football Playoff in their first year at the highest level of the sport. Their opponent on Saturday likely felt the Mountain West was theirs for the taking in 2026. Long a college football wasteland, UNLV has put three consecutive good seasons together only to be foiled by Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game three straight times. With the Broncos off to the reconstituted Pac-12, there was no conference overlord to hold them down. The Rebels opened the season a somewhat disappointing 1-2, but have looked the part offensively over their past two games, scoring 77 combined points in wins against Akron and Cal. While the offense is probably better than it showed in the first three games (48 total points), the Zips and Bears are not the strongest of FBS defenses. North Dakota State likely represents the best defense UNLV has faced thus far this season (depending on your opinion of Memphis) and is a major step up from Akron and Cal. I don't think the betting market realizes how good North Dakota State is. I expected them to be laying closer to a touchdown in this spot. Take them laying this small number in Sin City. 

UTEP +9 Nevada

This game (that is somehow on FS1 and not MW+) might be a loser leaves town match for the head coaches. Both Jeff Choate (Nevada) and Scott Walden (UTEP) are in their third season at their respective schools and despite some optimism, things are bad. Nevada opened the Choate era by nearly beating eventual College Football Playoff participant SMU as a four touchdown underdog. They followed that up by beating the defending Sun Belt champion (Troy) on the road. However, since that 1-1 start, they are just 6-21 overall, having dropped their past three games after beating Western Kentucky in their opener this season. Meanwhile, for UTEP, the optimism was more in the hire itself. Scotty Walden was a coach in his mid-30's who had guided Austin Peay to four consecutive winning seasons and one FCS playoff appearance. Thus far in El Paso, he is 6-23 with two of those wins coming against FCS teams. These teams are bad, but they are pretty close in quality. I don't understand why Nevada is nearly a double digit road favorite. Their victory against Western Kentucky has not aged well (the Hilltoppers have not won an FBS game) and neither has their loss to Middle Tennessee State (Nevada is their only FBS win). Nevada did lose a close game to a very good FCS team (Montana State) and also fell in overtime to Air Force, but both those games came at home. UTEP has had a much tougher schedule, losing to Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Oregon State. None of the losses were particularly close, but those teams are not in UTEP's weight class. If you squint, you can see some good things coming for UTEP. Four of their next five games are at home and the Mountain West has some bad teams at the bottom. I wouldn't be shocked if UTEP won this game outright postponed the inevitable. Walden will save his job temporarily before the UTEP administration eventually Thoreaus him out (I apologize for that one).

The Magnificent Seven: Week V

Two winning weeks in a row. And it could have been even better. I went 1-2 in games decided by the 'hook. It certainly brings you back. Lets see if we can start October off strong.       

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 14-13-1

West Virginia +3.5 Iowa State

Last week at this time, West Virginia fans probably felt like they were a legitimate darkhorse in the Big 12 title race. The Mountaineers had just beaten Virginia by two scores on a neutral field and were crushing teams on the ground behind quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook. The run threat allowed Hawkins to hit big plays in the passing game despite not being the most accurate quarterback. West Virginia is the epitome of a team that can pass when they want to, but cannot pass when they have to. With the defense unable to get any stops in the second half against Oklahoma State last week, the onus fell on Hawkins and he did not deliver through the air. He completed less than half his passes and threw for just 132 yards against the Cowboys. The good news for West Virginia fans is that Iowa State lacks the offensive firepower to go up and down the field against an average at best Mountaineers defense. Iowa State has scored thirty total points in two games against power conference teams (they scored 93 in their two games against non-power teams). I think this game comes down to Iowa State's ability to stop the run. The Cyclones held up well against a mediocre Iowa run game, but they allowed over 200 yards at more than six yards per carry against Utah last week. West Virginia bounces back and wins outright against the Cyclones in Ames. 

Marshall +18.5 James Madison

If you just looked at the record of these two teams coming into this game (a combined 7-1), you might wonder why the 4-0 team is such a prohibitive favorite over the 3-1 team. And then you check Marshall's schedule. The Thundering Herd have won their past three games, against less than stellar competition, by a combined nine points. Their most recent victory was an escape act against Gardner Webb. Marshall trailed by eight points in the fourth quarter, but rallied to win by a single point on a last second field goal. As I wrote a few weeks ago, teams that eke out a win against an FCS opponent are often undervalued by the betting market in their next game. In fact, Gardner Webb nearly upset Liberty three weeks ago. Off that win, the Flames were double digit favorites against Ball State, and won the game by five touchdowns, easily covering the spread. Marshall has enough offensive firepower to stay within three scores in this game. After an embarrassing showing in their opener against Penn State, Marshall has averaged over thirty points per game. James Madison is probably the best team in the Sun Belt, but the Dukes are a little overvalued after beating lesser versions of San Diego State and Old Dominion over the past two weeks. The Monarchs were without their starting quarterback and I don't think that is being properly priced in this line. Finally, Marshall is 2-2 against James Madison since the Dukes arrived in FBS, winning in both of their previous trips to Harrisonburg. This spread is too high for the Dukes to cover. 

Arkansas +14 Texas A&M

After beginning the 2025 season 11-0, Texas A&M is 2-4 in their last six games, with one of those victories coming against Missouri State. The SEC slate is daunting, so the Aggies probably need to win this one to even think about posting a winning record in 2026. While Arkansas is probably the worst team in the SEC, are the Aggies in position to be laying double digits? In their three games against power conference teams this season (Arizona State, LSU, and Kentucky), the Aggies are being outgained by nearly three yards per play (7.01 to 4.29)! Were it not for two defensive touchdowns and two other short field touchdown drives against Arizona State, the Aggies could be 1-3. Arkansas has not looked great against the two power conference foes they have faced, losing to Georgia and Utah by a combined 61 points. However, Arkansas has made a habit of playing closer than expected games against the Aggies since these two become conference opponents. The Aggies joined the SEC in 2012 and they have played each season since. Texas A&M has dominated the series, winning thirteen of fourteen games. However, the Razorbacks are 8-4-2 ATS and are 4-1 ATS as a double digit underdog. The Aggies lone cover as a double digit favorite came in their first season in the SEC when they had the eventual Heisman winner at quarterback. Marcel Reed will not be winning a Hesiman anytime soon. Take the Hogs to keep this one close. 

Coastal Carolina +2.5 Georgia Southern

Through four games, I think I was wrong about both these teams heading into 2026. I thought Coastal Carolina would be one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt and I figured Georgia Southern would be a darkhorse contender in the conference. While both teams have identical 1-3 records, Coastal has played better. The Chanticleers lost tight road games at West Virginia and Delaware where they averaged more yards per play than both the Mountaineers and the Blue Hens. Quarterback Deuce Bailey, who came over with head coach Ryan Beard from Missouri State, has thrown for ten touchdowns on the young season. Bailey does take too many sacks (15 thus far), but Georgia Southern has shown no proclivity for rushing the passer. They have eight sacks on the year, but six of those came in their opener against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern's quarterback is almost as old as I am. Max Johnson is on his fourth team and seventh (and hopefully final) college season. He has been fine so far in 2026, but if I were picking between the two, I would definitely choose Bailey. Georgia Southern has been a road favorite just three previous times under head coach Clay Helton. They are 1-2 ATS in those spots. This also marks just the second time they have been a road favorite against a conference opponent under Helton. For what its worth, they lost that game against Marshall in 2023. Georgia Southern is in no position to lay points on the road. Take a chance on the Chants. 

Temple +6 South Florida

This is a battle of the best 1-3 team in the country against the worst 4-0 team in the country. Temple has been agonizingly close to breaking through in KC Keeler's second season in Philly. The Owls blew a late two touchdown lead and lost in overtime to Toledo (probably the best team in the MAC) and then on a short week, dropped a tight game to Army. Meanwhile, South Florida has beaten their three FBS opponents by a combined 22 points. They trailed by ten points in the fourth to Army, but came back to win. Last week, they were being shut out by putrid Bowling Green, but scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to beat one of the worst teams in the MAC. The Bulls are also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, which is not an ideal strategy for getting margin on an opponent. Among teams that have played four games, only six teams have run fewer plays than the Bulls. I think Temple is the better team and as they are catching nearly a touchdown, they are an easy play. 

Southern Cal -9.5 Washington

It doesn't seem like Lincoln Riley is going to be able to get it done in Los Angeles. And by 'it' I mean win the Pac-12 Big 10 or make the College Football Playoff. Serves him right for running scared out of Norman because the Sooners were going to the SEC. But I digress. While the Trojans have struggled on their long road trips (maybe he should consult with cross town rival Bob Chesney about the best way to handle cross country flights) and against elite teams, they have handled patsies like Washington. And rest assured, Washington is a patsy. The Huskies are 3-7 straight up in true road games under head coach Jedd Fisch and an incredible 0-6 ATS as a road underdog. This is their first road game of the year after spending the first month in the friendly confines of the Pacific Northwest. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this season. I have a hard time envisioning the Trojans not getting to at least 38 points in this game and I don't think Washington can keep up. 

Fresno State +2 Washington State

Fresno State needs to change their scheduling tactics under Matt Entz. The past two seasons they have opened with road games against power conference opponents and the results have been less than ideal. Kansas beat them 31-7 last year and Southern Cal blanked them 39-0 this season. Both results devalued Fresno State in the betting market. Fresno won eight of their last eleven games after last season's rough debut against Kansas. They also went 3-1 both ATS and straight up as a betting underdog. This season, they have won three in a row after their shellacking in the LA Coliseum. The competition has not been the strongest (the three teams they have beaten have one FBS win between them), but the competition in Pullman should not be that strong either. I was on Washington State last week as they were catching double digits at home against former conference mate Arizona. The Cougars covered (barely), but were outplayed pretty significantly by Arizona, especially after the first quarter. Washington State averaged under five yards per play, as they have in all three games against FBS opponents. Quarterback Caden Pinnick is a fun player who moves well and can make things happen off schedule. However, he takes too many sacks (ten so far) and the Cougars cannot consistently move the ball. They have scored three offensive touchdowns in three games against FBS teams. Their kicking game is also bad, as kicker Jack Stevens has converted on just two of seven field goal attempts on the season. Fresno State should be laying about a field goal. With a plus sign in front of their name, they are the play.