2023 Yards Per Play: SEC

We finally come to the big bad SEC. This was the last year of divisions in the conference that originated them. So how did things play out?

Here are the 2023 SEC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each SEC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division, by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the SEC met this threshold? Here are SEC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Alabama and Ole Miss significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while Mississippi State underachieved based on their YPP numbers. Alabama and Ole Miss finished a combined 7-0 in one-score conference games. And while Alabama did not lose a single conference game, Ole Miss was dominated in both their league losses, losing to Alabama and Georgia by a combined 49 points while being outgained by over two and a half yards per play. Mississippi State was not unfortunate in close games (1-1 in one-score SEC games), but they had the worst in-conference turnover margin in the SEC (-9).

Jayden Daniels and the Other SEC Heisman Quarterbacks

In the second half of the 2023 season, LSU got a couple of breathers from their SEC gauntlet. In late October, they pounded Army 62-0 with Jayden Daniels throwing for an incredible 279 yards on just 15 pass attempts. The in mid-November, the Tigers blasted Georgia State 56-14 with Daniels accounting for eight total touchdowns (six passing and two rushing). Daniels also tossed five touchdown passes in an early season game against Grambling State. Did these scrimmages unfairly buoy his successful Heisman campaign or was Daniels a deserving Heisman winner? In my research, I could only find a single truly contrarian take regarding his candidacy. Did that isolated opinion have any validity? To answer that question, I decided to compare Daniels to the other 21st century Heisman winning quarterbacks in the SEC (Tebow, Newton, Manziel, Burrow, and Young). However, instead of comparing their full season stats, I used only regular season conference games. The SEC has not altered its conference schedule this century so all six quarterbacks got eight conference games to accumulate stats in their Heisman winning seasons. How did they do? Let's start with the passing stats. 

If you watch football, you probably don't need an explanation of any of those stats except for potentially AY/Att. This stands for Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. It is passing yards with a 20 yard bonus for passing touchdowns and a 45 yards penalty for interceptions. Daniels stacks up well in these statistics, ranking third out of six quarterbacks in total passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, first in interceptions thrown, and first (by a significant margin) in AY/Att. Now Daniels is also a bit of a dual-threat quarterback, to put in mildly. Here are the rushing stats for those six quarterbacks. Cam Newton's numbers include two receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown (he was the only SEC quarterback to catch a pass in conference play during his Heisman campaign). 

Once again, Daniels compares pretty favorably. He ranks second in total rushing yards and fourth in total rushing touchdowns. Now let's add those passing and rushing numbers together. 

Daniels ranks in the upper echelon of SEC Heisman winning quarterbacks when we combine passing and rushing numbers. He is second in both total yards and total touchdowns despite having the fewest total of passing plus rushing attempts (321). 

The only argument against Daniels is that he did not lead LSU to the SEC title or even to the SEC Championship Game. But I think we all understand the Tiger defense is more responsible for LSU's 'disappointing' season. In their two conference defeats (versus Ole Miss and Alabama), the Tigers allowed 55 and 42 points respectively. Daniels played well in both games, accounting for over 500 yards and 5 total touchdowns against the Rebels and over 350 yards and 3 total touchdowns against Alabama. In fact, Daniels may be the best SEC Heisman winning quarterback of the 21st century. Yes, he dominated outmanned opponents, but he also put up incredible numbers in the best conference in college football.