2023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Pac-12

Last week we looked at how Pac-12 teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2023 Pac-12 standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Pac-12 teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Washington saw their actual record significantly exceed their APR while Colorado and UCLA significantly underachieved relative to their APR. Washington also significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week (primarily, their remarkable 6-0 record in one-score conference games). Despite their hot start in the non-conference and some ridiculous think pieces written in September, Colorado actually won the same number of conference games in 2023 as they had in 2022. For what its worth, Deion Sanders has a worse conference record at Colorado than Mike Sanford. But in reality, Colorado was much improved. They just could not close the deal in close conference games, finishing 1-5 in one-score Pac-12 games (were 1-1 in such games in 2022). UCLA can't blame close game misfortune (1-1 record in one-score Pac-12 games) for their underperformance, but a confluence of other events. The Bruins did not have a terrible turnover margin in Pac-12 play, but opponents returned three of quarterback Dante Moore's passes for touchdowns and added a kick return touchdown for good measure. The Bruins were also woefully inept on fourth down conversions. The Bruins attempted to convert on fourth down 27 times in Pac-12 play, and were only successful on 12 occasions. Their conversion rate of 44.4% was actually better than their opponents (35.7%), but their opponents only attempted to convert 14 times. The sheer volume of their own attempts (and failures) meant the Bruins had in effect an additional six net turnovers than their opponents. Finally, the Bruins also struggled converting field goals. They made just 5 of 14 attempts in Pac-12 play while their opponents all seemed to channel Justin Tucker as they made 16 of 18 attempts against the Bruins. 

Should We Have Seen the Holiday Bowl Coming?

If I had told you before the season that Southern Cal comfortably beat Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, you would not have thought much of it. You may have correctly surmised that the Trojans suffered a somewhat disappointing season, but otherwise, that wouldn't have raised an eyebrow. If I had told you thirty minutes or so before kickoff that Southern Cal comfortably beat Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, you might have been somewhat taken aback. After all, the Trojans finished the season losing five of their final six games while Louisville was a pleasant surprise, rolling through a 10-2 regular season and earning a berth in the ACC Championship Game. The Trojans would also be without the services of star quarterback Caleb Williams, who was sitting out the game. The betting line reflected the consensus that Louisville would win, as the Cardinal were about a touchdown favorite. But the Trojans did have something Louisville did not: a preseason ranking in the top ten of the AP Poll.

I've written numerous times about the predictive power of the preseason AP Poll. The short of it is the preseason AP Poll is a good proxy for talent (better than the end of year poll) and should be factored into your handicap of any college football game. That being said, was Southern Cal a stone cold lock? Should we have backed the Trojans blindly heading into this game? To answer that question, I looked at all teams since 1998 with a similar profile to Southern Cal in 2023. That is, teams that began the year in the preseason top ten, ended the regular season unranked, and played in a bowl game. Including 2023, 37 teams fit that criteria. And how did they perform once they got to the postseason?

Those preseason top ten teams with disappointing regular seasons were alright in terms of straight up performance. They won right at 59% of the time. But ATS, it was pretty much a coin flip, as they prevailed 51% of the time. That is pretty much how things played out in 2023 as the Trojans were not the only preseason top ten team to find themselves unranked and in a bowl game. 

Clemson also began the year in the top ten of the AP Poll. The Tigers opened the year by losing on Labor Day Night in Durham and were 4-4 at the end of October. Though they won their final four regular season games, they were outside the rankings when they faced off against Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. The Tigers entered as six-point favorites and outlasted the Wildcats in a back and forth affair, winning 38-35. A victory on the field, but a loss at the window. 

Before we leave this subject, let's look at the data one more way. You may have noticed that Southern Cal was getting points against Louisville while Clemson was laying points against Kentucky. If we divide these disappointing preseason top ten teams into favorites and underdogs, an interesting trend emerges. 

Disappointing preseason top ten teams win at about the same clip whether they are a favorite or an underdog in their bowl game. However, ATS, the favorites lose money, while the underdogs cover more than twice as often as not. Oh, and one more thing before we sign off. Louisville was not ranked in the preseason poll. What if we group these disappointing preseason top ten teams by the preseason quality of their bowl opponent.

Ding ding. I think we found something. Disappointing preseason top ten teams are 2-2 (both straight up and ATS) when facing fellow preseason top ten teams in their bowl. They are just 3-5 (both straight up and ATS) when facing teams ranked between 11 and 25 in the preseason AP Poll. But against teams that were unranked in the preseason poll, they are 17-8 straight up. Favorites still struggle ATS, but look at those underdogs. Perfecto. The sample size is small. In fact, its so small, I can list every instance. Which I shall do below. 

So, maybe we should have seen Southern Cal's victory coming. It doesn't happen often, but the next time you see a disappointing preseason top ten team catching points in their bowl game against a team that was unranked in the preseason AP Poll, consider taking them plus the points. Oh, and don't be scared to take them on the moneyline either.