First Half Point Differential: The 2025 Group of Five

After a bit of a hiatus, we return to our review of the 2025 college football season.This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2025 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The teams ranked first and third in 1HPD made the AAC Championship Game with the third ranked team pulling off a minor upset on their way to a College Football Playoff bid. At the other end of the standings, Charlotte did not lead at the half in any conference game as they finished 0-8 with each loss coming by at least eleven points.

Conference USA

The 2025 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded).

The second and third ranked teams in 1HPD met in the Conference USA Championship Game. Meanwhile, the team that finished first in 1HPD had a losing conference record (more on them later). 

Mid-American

The 2025 MAC standings.

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded).

Toledo dominated their MAC brethren, leading by double digits at the half in five of their eight conference games, but blew close games to Western Michigan and Bowling Green. With no divisions and some funky tiebreakers, Toledo lost out on a shot at the MAC Championship Game. Instead, the teams ranked fourth and fifth in 1HPD met up in the title game with the fourth ranked team prevailing. At the bottom of the standings, Massachusetts trailed by double digits in six of their eight MAC games on their way to a winless conference record with all but one loss coming by at least eighteen points. 

Mountain West

The 2025 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

San Diego State and New Mexico finished first and second in the league in 1HPD and also finished tied for first in the conference standings (with UNLV and Boise State). Tiebreaker procedures put the Rebels and Broncos in the title game with the Broncos winning their third consecutive Mountain West title against the Rebels. There is good news for UNLV fans though. The Broncos are off to the reconstituted Pac-12 and cannot beat the Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game for a fourth consecutive season in 2026. 

Sun Belt

The 2025 Sun Belt standings.

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

The Sun Belt remains the only conference to utilize divisions and that sorting mechanism allowed a team ranked ninth in 1HPD to qualify for the conference title game. Surprisingly, James Madison, a College Football Playoff participant did not finish first in 1HPD. Old Dominion was more dominant in Sun Belt play, leading by twenty points or more at halftime in four of their eight conference games. Meanwhile, James Madison trailed at the half in two of their Sun Belt games and led by ten points or less in four others. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Navy lost just once in AAC play and nearly qualified for the conference title game despite trailing at halftime in three of their conference games, including twice by double digits. Over in the Sun Belt, Troy qualified for the conference title game despite being outscored in the first half over the course of the conference schedule. The Trojans trailed by double digits at the half in three of their conference games and led by double digits at the half just once in Sun Belt action. Coastal Carolina trailed at the half in six of their eight league games, including five times by at least a touchdown, yet still managed to finish with a winning conference record. James Madison trailed at the half in just two of their eight Sun Belt games, but were not nearly as dominant as their undefeated record would indicate. Western Michigan won the MAC for the first time since 2016, but trailed at the half three times in conference play. Finally, Kennesaw State won Conference USA in just their second year as an FBS program. While they trailed at halftime just once in conference play, they they were also tied at the half or winning by less than a touchdown on three other occasions. 

And now the underachievers. 

Liberty posted the best 1HPD of any Conference USA team, but finished with a losing conference record. The Flames held double digit leads at the half in four of their eight conference games, and only trailed at halftime once in conference play. Georgia State finished winless in Sun Belt play, but were either tied or winning at the half in three of their eight conference games. Texas State finished with a losing record in Sun Belt play despite leading at the half five times, including three times by double digits. Finally, in their MAC swan song, Northern Illinois finished with two MAC wins despite holding a halftime lead three times in conference play. The Huskies were also tied or within a field goal three other times in MAC play. 

In two week, we'll examine how power conference teams performed in 1HPD.