Akron +24 Wake Forest
Year One of the Jake Dickert era was a rousing success in Winston-Salem. After winning just eight games in their final two seasons under Dave Clawson the Demon Deacons won eight in the regular season and capped it off with a victory against an SEC team in the Mayo Bowl. Any hopes for a return to the postseason must involve a victory against Akron. After hosting the Zips, ten of their final eleven opponents are power conference teams (nine ACC games plus a non-conference road trip to Purdue). Wake quietly fielded one of the better defensive units in the ACC last season, ranking fifth in the conference in yards allowed per play. In the 90's, that would have been middle of the pack, but in case you missed it, the league now features seventeen members, so the Demon Deacons were comfortably in the top third of the league defensively. Overall, the defense improved by nearly a yard per play against ACC foes. Some regression is likely in store as I doubt Wake has a top third defensive roster in the ACC. The offense on the other hand could improve with Gio Lopez at quarterback. Lopez played well two seasons ago at South Alabama, but struggled at North Carolina last season. Some of those struggles in Chapel Hill could be due to his offensive coordinator last season (Freddie Kitchens), but Lopez may not have the talent to be a power conference quarterback. Regardless, I expect the offense to need some time to adapt to the new signal caller. This is the main reason I suggest backing the Zips in this game. Since Sam Hartman left the program for untold riches in South Bend following the 2022 season, Wake has not been favored by more than 17 points against an FBS opponent. If my math is correct, this spread is a touchdown north of that number. Akron has struggled in four seasons under Joe Moorhead, posting a 13-35 overall record, but this should be his best team for what its worth. Their quarterback, Reese Poffenbarger, played well for Albany of the FCS in 2023 and transferred to FBS schools in 2024 and 2025. Unfortunately, he was not able to win quarterback battles against Cam Ward (Miami) and Drew Mestemaker (North Texas). Obviously, its hard to project how well Poffenbarger will play in the Akron system, but he was good enough to make rosters at FBS schools the past two seasons. This is too many points to lay for a team that may struggle to reach 30 points in the game. Back the Zips.
Liberty +7 James Madison
Unlike last season when the first full Saturday of college football kicked off with Texas visiting Ohio State, there are not a lot of marquee matchups in the early window. Might I recommend this battle in the Commonwealth of Virginia between two solid Group of Six programs? While Liberty has underachieved the past two seasons, including bottoming out with a 4-8 mark last season, they are regarded by most power ratings as the best team in Conference USA. Meanwhile, James Madison is coming off a College Football Playoff appearance in just their fourth year as a member of the FBS. As is usually the case with success at the lower levels of football, that success meant James Madison was in the market for a new head football coach for the second time in three seasons. They nailed the hire two years ago when they tabbed Bob Chesney from Holy Cross to replace the departed Curt Cignetti. They did not select another successful FCS coach, and instead chose a failed power conference coach to lead the team. In fairness, had Billy Napier gone from Louisiana-Lafayette to James Madison four years ago, his hire would have been heralded. In four seasons as head coach of Louisiana-Lafayette, Napier guided the Ragin' Cajuns to four consecutive Sun Belt West division titles, the last of which resulted in an outright Sun Belt title and final ranking of 16 in the AP Poll. Of course, his tenure at Florida did happen, and outside of a strong close to 2024, was not successful. The Gators finished with a losing record under his watch (22-23 overall and 12-16 in the SEC). Napier's teams have performed poorly as a home favorite, posting a 10-17-1 ATS mark at Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida with seven outright losses. The Dukes have significantly less continuity than the Flames, so another home loss as a favorite may be in the cards. Napier will probably have the Dukes in contention for the Sun Belt East division by the time the season ends, but I think his tenure begins with an inauspicious start.
Boston College +7.5 Cincinnati
Full disclosure, my biggest regular season win total position is Boston College over 3.5 wins. Logically then, it stands to reason I expect them to win this game, or at least keep it close. Here's why. Last season was an outlier for Bill O'Brien. In three previous seasons as an FBS head coach, his teams had posted middling records, winning eight, seven, and seven regular season games at a scandal plagued Penn State and in his first season as coach of the Eagles. Last season, another middling performance was expected, with the Eagles picked to finish in the bottom third of the bloated ACC. The Eagles won their opener against Fordham and did not win again until their regular season finale at Syracuse. Eight of those ten losses came to teams that finished bowl eligible, so by ACC standards, the schedule was tough. Looking to jump start the offense, O'Brien scoured the lower rungs of college football and brought in quarterback Mason McKenzie from Division II Saginaw Valley State. McKenzie is an athletic quarterback who gives the offense a significant run threat. As the season progresses, McKenzie may struggle in his adjustment to the highest level of football, but I expect him to have a good game, especially with his legs, against Cincinnati. Speaking of the Bearcats, they are just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite under Scott Satterfield and have struggled in Nippert Stadium overall under his guidance. They are just 6-11 straight up at home in Satterfield's three seasons. Take the Eagles to keep this one close and don't be surprised if they spring an outright upset.
Wyoming +3 Colorado State
For the first time since 1967, these two rivals will face off in a non-conference game. Kudos to the Cowboys and Rams for keeping the Border War going despite Colorado State's move to the reconstituted Pac-12. These two won't play next year, but the game is on the schedule through 2036 outside of that one-year hiatus. While the Rams are favored, the Cowboys have dominated this rivalry of late. Wyoming has won eight of the past ten in the series despite both teams entering as favorites five times. Wyoming is also no stranger to winning in Fort Collins, posting a 3-2 record in their past five trips (two outright underdog wins). Colorado State does seem poised to finally fulfill their 'sleeping giant' (at least in the Group of Six ranks) potential. Colorado State opened their new stadium nine years ago by thumping a then power conference Oregon State 58-27. The future seemed bright, with the Rams coming off four consecutive bowl bids. They would make it five straight in 2017, albeit with a mediocre 7-6 record. However, since then, they have finished with a winning record just once (2024), while winning three games or fewer five times. I think they nailed the coaching hire this cycle by coaxing Jim Mora Jr. back to the Pac-12 from Connecticut where he guided the previously moribund Huskies to three bowl games in four seasons. While the future looks bright in Fort Collins yet again, there may be some growing pains in year one, especially in the first game against a hated rival. While Colorado State just hired a new coach, Wyoming could be doing the same after 2026. Jay Sawvel has guided the Cowboys to a 7-17 record in his first two seasons as head coach since taking over for the legendary Craig Bohl. Likely sensing the the walls closing in, Sawvel brought in a productive FCS quarterback to try and spark the offense (averaged under 20 point per game each of the past two seasons). Quarterback Tyler Hughes accounted for 31 touchdowns last season at William and Mary as the Tribe finished 7-5 in the rugged Colonial Athletic Association, but more importantly averaged nearly 35 points per game. By default, Hughes will be the best quarterback to take the field for the Cowboys since that guy who got drafted by Buffalo nearly a decade ago. The Cowboys went to the Mountain West Championship Game with Josh Allen in 2016. I don't think they can or will reach those heights in 2026, but they will compete for a bowl game and be in position to pull off an outright upset in their opener.
Sam Houston State +17.5 Troy
The case for Troy as a Sun Belt contender in 2026 all comes down to how you frame things. On one hand, the Trojans have won the Sun Belt West division in three of the past four seasons. On the other hand, two of those division titles came under Jon Sumrall (current head coach of the Florida Gators). In fact, under current head coach Gerad Parker, the Trojans have finished with negative yards per play margins against Sun Belt teams the past two seasons. They managed to exceed those meager numbers and qualify for the Sun Belt Championship Game last season, but they were arguably worse (just luckier) than they were in Parker's first season. I think that division title and subsequent solid performance against James Madison has driven this line up too far. Sam Houston struggled in Phil Longo's first season as head coach, beginning the year 0-8 before scoring one of the more under the radar upsets of the year by beating Oregon State in Corvallis. The Bearkats won again the next week against Delaware, but returned to their losing ways, closing the season with back to back losses to Middle Tennessee and Florida International by a combined 54 points. The Bearkats will probably endure another long season, but stranger things have happened in Conference USA. I know this number is really high, but I think you should even sprinkle a little on the moneyline for Sam Houston State. A tight game in the fourth quarter would not shock me.
Clemson +10 LSU
Both these Tigers disappointed last season as they finished with identical 7-5 regular season records despite each beginning the year in the top ten of the AP Poll. The disappointing season ended Brian Kelly's tenure at LSU and opened the door for everyone's favorite clown, Lane Kiffin, to swap SEC jobs and head to the bayou. Obviously Kiffin has had a successful coaching career. He did lead Ole Miss to the College Football Playoff last season after all, but a team with expectations coached by Lane Kiffin is almost destined to disappoint. He is an unserious football coach. He will win the press conference and consistently put good offenses on the field, but maintaining consistency throughout the season is not his strong suit. Will the Tigers be good enough in his first game to win by double digits against Clemson? I have my doubts. Consider last year's game. Clemson was favored by roughly four points at home. One year later, the point spread has shifted by nearly two touchdowns. Part of that is due to the venue change, but that would only account for about four to six points in adjustments. As I mentioned, both of these teams disappointed last season. LSU's victory did not propel them to greatness. They beat just three other power conference teams after knocking off Clemson. Kiffin brought some talent in, including quarterback Sam Leavitt from Arizona State. Will that talent gel by the opener? And while we are discussing Kiffin, are we sure he is a better coach than Brian Kelly? He is certainly nowhere near as accomplished. While LSU opens as the eleventh ranked team in the preseason AP Poll, Clemson is flying under the radar in the 'others receiving votes category'. Long time head coach Dabo Swinney should be able to play the 'disrespect' card. While Swinney and I are probably polar opposites in terms of politics, he does seem to be quite genuine. And if he is not, he is a much better con man than Kiffin. Clemson has not been truly elite since Trevor Lawrence departed after the 2020 season and that trend will probably continue in 2026. If the Tigers lose four or five regular season games again, the IPTAY faithful will have an existential crisis. While I have no idea what to expect from Clemson over the full season, Swinney should be able to motivate his Tigers to hang tough in the opener.
Wisconsin +20.5 Notre Dame @ Lambeau Field
The Badgers have struggled in their three seasons under Luke Fickell, posting a 16-20 regular season record (10-17 in Big 10 play). That is by far their worst three year stretch since Barry Alvarez righted the program in the 90's. Despite their overall struggles, the Badgers have continued to put solid defenses on the field. The offense, particularly last season's incarnation, has been the real issue. Check out last year's box score in a victory against Washington. The Badgers won despite having the same number of passing yards by a kicker on a trick play (24) as their nominal quarterbacks had the rest of the game. The quarterback issue should be resolved, at least until an injury strikes and tests their depth, in 2026. Colton Joseph, who passed for over 2500 yards and rushed for more than 1000 yards at Old Dominion last season is the new signal caller. His dual threat capabilities should help the Badgers more than double their paltry per game point totals (12.8). The extra hits from scrambles and designed runs may lead to an injury over the course of Big 10 play, but Joseph and the offense should be productive against a stout Notre Dame defense. As for the Irish, they are widely expected to qualify for the College Football Playoff thanks to their talent and relatively easy schedule. Including Wisconsin, there are ten power conference opponents on the slate, but only one of those ten is a favorite to qualify for the playoff as well (Miami) and only two others that could reasonably be expected to be playoff contenders (BYU and SMU). Notre Dame has not been an underdog in a regular season game since the 2024 opener at Texas A&M. That trend will probably continue throughout 2026. The Irish did not play in the postseason last year as they took their ball and went home after not being invited to the College Football Playoff. Their final two games last season came against power conference corpses Syracuse and Stanford. As such, this will be the best team they have faced since blasting Pitt in mid-November. I think the Badgers will be feisty enough to keep this game within three touchdowns and make Notre Dame sweat in the second half.
