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Last Week: 2-4-1
Overall: 2-4-1
Army -3.5 South Florida
One game does not define a tenure, but Brian Hartline's first game as head coach at South Florida did not portend greatness. The Bulls scored just 19 points against a Conference USA team. That marked their lowest point total against a non-power team since scoring seven against Navy in November 2024. The Bulls also gained just 208 yards and averaged under four yards per play and if not for three FIU turnovers, probably would have started the Hartline era with a loss. Now the Bulls must prepare for a trip to West Point to face Army in their first meeting as conference foes. In two seasons as a member of the American Athletic Conference, the Black Knights have posted some interesting splits. Including their victory against Tulane in the 2024 AAC Championship Game, the Black Knights are 10-0 straight up when facing AAC teams for the first time as conference opponents, but just 3-4 straight up in the second meeting. That trend makes some sense. Army runs a unique style of offense that can take some getting used to. These teams have faced off before, but those games came more than two decades ago (2003 and 2004). I think the unfamiliarity trend will continue here with Army handing South Florida their first loss of the season.
Appalachian State +7.5 East Carolina
These teams have met three times as FBS teams (all since 2021) with the Mountaineers winning each time. Appalachian State has won in Boone, in Greenville, and at a neutral site, in Charlotte. The Mountaineers have also been favored each time, yet East Carolina is the team laying a touchdown. I want no part of backing the Pirates primarily because of their quarterback Mitch Griffis. I had the misfortune of watching Griffis quarterback my alma mater for a full season in 2023. Perhaps I am too biased against him to form a reasonable opinion on this game, but in 2023, I saw a quarterback with little pocket awareness who took too many sacks and was incapable of throwing the ball down the field. Somehow he made the Texas Tech roster last season and played well in limited action with a bevy of talented players around him. While I expect the Pirates to have issues at quarterback, the Mountaineers may have found one. I know it was just one game against an FCS opponents, but Appalachian State put up 55 points against Maine after scoring just twenty against their FCS opponent last season. Malachi Singleton, formerly of Purdue and Arkansas, could unlock the offense after the team averaged under 27 per game each of the past two seasons. I know both teams faced disparate competition in their respective openers (East Carolina played Alabama), but I think the Mountaineers are live to win this one outright.
Syracuse -3.5 California
After a opening the Tosh Lupoi era with a home loss to rival UCLA, Cal must head east to take on a Syracuse team coming off a shellacking of an overmatched FCS opponent. These natural geographic rivals faced off as conference foes for the first time in 2024 with Syracuse pulling off a win in Berkeley. This will be Cal's first trip to Syracuse since 1967 and thankfully for Cal fans, just one of three true east coast trips this season (NC State and Virginia are the others). I think this will be a tough spot emotionally for Cal as they were tied with UCLA in the fourth, but allowed 21 consecutive points to close the game. Lupoi does have experience heading east for conference games as he was the defensive coordinator at Oregon for their first two campaigns in the Big 10. However, this will be his first long road trip as a head coach. The Bears will have the better quarterback in this game, with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leading the team. Outside of JKS though, I'd take the Syracuse roster. Before quarterback injuries derailed their season in 2025, the Orange were 13-4 straight up (8-1 at home) under head coach Fran Brown. Quarterback Steve Angeli looked healthy last week and the team has competent backups should be go down again this season. Syracuse also made a shrewd hire at defensive coordinator in the offseason by plucking Vince Kehres from Toledo. The Orange are improved on both sides of the ball relative to last season and should be able to win by at least a touchdown.
Buffalo +10.5 Florida International
While I think this spread is too high, I understand why the Panthers are laying double digits to the Bulls. Buffalo nearly lost at home last week to Albany of the FCS. Scooby Doo and Mystery Inc. were stopped on fourth down inside the Buffalo five yard line in the final minute. Naturally, no one should want any part of the Bulls this week as they hit the road and travel south down I-95. But let me see if I can persuade you to take a chance on Buffalo. For starters, FIU did not cover themselves in glory last week. As I mentioned above, they lost to what I suspect is a not good South Florida team 19-9. While they outgained those Bulls by nearly 200 yards, they only averaged five yards per play. There were not a lot of explosive plays which is what a team needs to cover a big number. And while Buffalo nearly lost to Albany, their defense played well. The Great Danes were held below both 300 yards of offense and four yards per play. Teams like Buffalo tend to be undervalued the week after they survive against an FCS opponent. Since 2021, 45 non-power teams have beaten an FCS opponent by one possession. Those teams are just 16-29 straight up in their next game, but a phenomenal 30-15 ATS. The ATS numbers are even better when we only consider road underdogs. Those road dogs are 3-20 straight up in their next game, but 15-8 ATS. If we break this cohort down further into road underdogs facing other non-power teams on the road, the trend remains strong. Those teams struggle to win outright (1-7 straight up), but continue to cash tickets ATS (6-2). The two ATS losses in the sample were massive blowouts (32 and 28 point losses respectively), but the other five straight up losses all came by a touchdown or less implying the market systematically undervalues teams the week after they scrape by an FCS opponent. Back the Bulls in what should be an ugly low-scoring affair.
South Alabama +9.5 Tulane
Tulane has been a very good non-power college football team the past four years. The Green Wave have won 43 games, appeared in four consecutive AAC Championship Games (winning two), finished ranked twice, and even made the College Football Playoff. But you don't have to look too far back in their history to see a bad program. Between 1999 and 2021, the Green Wave posted nearly as many seasons with double digit losses (four) as they did winning campaigns (five). I was not a fan of the Will Hall hire and after their first game, you don't have to squint too hard to see this program returning to the wilderness. Am I burying Hall and the Green Wave prematurely? Perhaps. But in this new era of college football, a team's fortunes can shift dramatically in one season, especially if they change coaches and hire poorly, which I definitely think has happened here. Even if you don't agree that Tulane is headed for the basement in the AAC, consider the brief history of this series and ask yourself if you want to lay nearly double digits with this team. The Jaguars and Green Wave (schools located roughly 150 miles apart) have met four times on the gridiron. Tulane has been favored in each instance (between six and thirteen points), and are 3-1 straight up, but just 1-3 ATS. Tulane won by twenty in 2023, but the team that eventually qualified for the College Football Playoff only won by two last season. In addition, all four of those Tulane teams qualified for bowl games. I've already made it known I think the Green Wave are in danger of missing a bowl this season. This play is all about fading Tulane rather than backing South Alabama. There is a decent chance the Jaguars spring the outright upset in this spot.
Air Force +2.5 North Dakota State
The Game of the Century (of the week) will still be going on when this one kicks in Colorado Springs, but this should serve as a good palette cleanser after watching the two titans battle in Austin. So far, so good for North Dakota State in their maiden voyage as an FBS program. The next adversity they encounter will be their first. The Bison laid waste to a team they beat in the FCS Championship Game following the 2015 season (Jacksonville State) in their opener and shutout the Seven Blocks of Granite last week. Now comes their first road game as an FBS team against a team that has somehow not won a conference title since 1998! With the Mountain West is in a bit of flux after losing five programs to the reconstituted Pac-12 while adding two weak programs (Northern Illinois and UTEP) and of course, the Bison. North Dakota State shut down Jacksonville State's vaunted rushing attack in their opener, holding the Gamecocks to 85 yards on the ground. However, Air Force is much different stylistically. If North Dakota State wins this game, they may well be 7-0 before heading to Albuquerque in late October to face Jason Eck and his pack of Lobos. However, I think the market is giveing the Bison a little too much support after their first two games. Jacksonville State is a Conference USA team that is 2-9 straight up in the regular season against non-conference FBS opponents since making the jump to FBS. Those losses have not been concentrated against power conference foes either. The Gamecocks are 2-8 against fellow non-power teams. Take the Falcons to end North Dakota State's brief unbeaten run at the FBS level.
New Mexico State +7.5 Hawaii
For these former WAC rivals, the season will somehow be at the quarter pole early Sunday morning. New Mexico State has acquitted themselves well through their first two games, hanging tough with Florida State in Tallahassee in Week Zero and then dominating Patty Mercyhurst in their second game. Meanwhile, for Hawaii the season is in real danger of coming apart at the seams. The Rainbow Warriors were underdogs in their first two games to Stanford and UNLV, so an 0-2 start was on the board, but the most concerning aspect of their performance has been the lack of offense. Hawaii scored twenty points in the fourth quarter against Stanford to rally and take a late lead against the Cardinal. In their other seven quarters of play against a bad power conference team and a team with one of the worst defenses at the non-power level last season, Hawaii has scored one touchdown and thirteen total points. Micah Alejado threw for over 3000 yards last season, but he is completing just north of half his passes while averaging under five yards per attempt thus far in 2026. And again, I'll reiterate, the defensive competition has not been top notch. I would expect Hawaii to max out in the mid-twenties in this game. That will probably not be enough to cover more than a touchdown against what appears to be a competent squad. Plus, don't discount the fact that New Mexico State coach Tony Sanchez has experience taking a team to the islands. He faced Hawaii five times while the head coach at UNLV. The Rebels split their trips to Honolulu, winning in 2016 and losing in 2018. However, both games were close and the extended road trip should not be daunting to the Aggies. I wouldn't be shocked if New Mexico State sends Hawaii to an 0-3 start.
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