The Magnificent Seven: Week V

Two winning weeks in a row. And it could have been even better. I went 1-2 in games decided by the 'hook. It certainly brings you back. Lets see if we can start October off strong.       

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 14-13-1

West Virginia +3.5 Iowa State

Last week at this time, West Virginia fans probably felt like they were a legitimate darkhorse in the Big 12 title race. The Mountaineers had just beaten Virginia by two scores on a neutral field and were crushing teams on the ground behind quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook. The run threat allowed Hawkins to hit big plays in the passing game despite not being the most accurate quarterback. West Virginia is the epitome of a team that can pass when they want to, but cannot pass when they have to. With the defense unable to get any stops in the second half against Oklahoma State last week, the onus fell on Hawkins and he did not deliver through the air. He completed less than half his passes and threw for just 132 yards against the Cowboys. The good news for West Virginia fans is that Iowa State lacks the offensive firepower to go up and down the field against an average at best Mountaineers defense. Iowa State has scored thirty total points in two games against power conference teams (they scored 93 in their two games against non-power teams). I think this game comes down to Iowa State's ability to stop the run. The Cyclones held up well against a mediocre Iowa run game, but they allowed over 200 yards at more than six yards per carry against Utah last week. West Virginia bounces back and wins outright against the Cyclones in Ames. 

Marshall +18.5 James Madison

If you just looked at the record of these two teams coming into this game (a combined 7-1), you might wonder why the 4-0 team is such a prohibitive favorite over the 3-1 team. And then you check Marshall's schedule. The Thundering Herd have won their past three games, against less than stellar competition, by a combined nine points. Their most recent victory was an escape act against Gardner Webb. Marshall trailed by eight points in the fourth quarter, but rallied to win by a single point on a last second field goal. As I wrote a few weeks ago, teams that eke out a win against an FCS opponent are often undervalued by the betting market in their next game. In fact, Gardner Webb nearly upset Liberty three weeks ago. Off that win, the Flames were double digit favorites against Ball State, and won the game by five touchdowns, easily covering the spread. Marshall has enough offensive firepower to stay within three scores in this game. After an embarrassing showing in their opener against Penn State, Marshall has averaged over thirty points per game. James Madison is probably the best team in the Sun Belt, but the Dukes are a little overvalued after beating lesser versions of San Diego State and Old Dominion over the past two weeks. The Monarchs were without their starting quarterback and I don't think that is being properly priced in this line. Finally, Marshall is 2-2 against James Madison since the Dukes arrived in FBS, winning in both of their previous trips to Harrisonburg. This spread is too high for the Dukes to cover. 

Arkansas +14 Texas A&M

After beginning the 2025 season 11-0, Texas A&M is 2-4 in their last six games, with one of those victories coming against Missouri State. The SEC slate is daunting, so the Aggies probably need to win this one to even think about posting a winning record in 2026. While Arkansas is probably the worst team in the SEC, are the Aggies in position to be laying double digits? In their three games against power conference teams this season (Arizona State, LSU, and Kentucky), the Aggies are being outgained by nearly three yards per play (7.01 to 4.29)! Were it not for two defensive touchdowns and two other short field touchdown drives against Arizona State, the Aggies could be 1-3. Arkansas has not looked great against the two power conference foes they have faced, losing to Georgia and Utah by a combined 61 points. However, Arkansas has made a habit of playing closer than expected games against the Aggies since these two become conference opponents. The Aggies joined the SEC in 2012 and they have played each season since. Texas A&M has dominated the series, winning thirteen of fourteen games. However, the Razorbacks are 8-4-2 ATS and are 4-1 ATS as a double digit underdog. The Aggies lone cover as a double digit favorite came in their first season in the SEC when they had the eventual Heisman winner at quarterback. Marcel Reed will not be winning a Hesiman anytime soon. Take the Hogs to keep this one close. 

Coastal Carolina +2.5 Georgia Southern

Through four games, I think I was wrong about both these teams heading into 2026. I thought Coastal Carolina would be one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt and I figured Georgia Southern would be a darkhorse contender in the conference. While both teams have identical 1-3 records, Coastal has played better. The Chanticleers lost tight road games at West Virginia and Delaware where they averaged more yards per play than both the Mountaineers and the Blue Hens. Quarterback Deuce Bailey, who came over with head coach Ryan Beard from Missouri State, has thrown for ten touchdowns on the young season. Bailey does take too many sacks (15 thus far), but Georgia Southern has shown no proclivity for rushing the passer. They have eight sacks on the year, but six of those came in their opener against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern's quarterback is almost as old as I am. Max Johnson is on his fourth team and seventh (and hopefully final) college season. He has been fine so far in 2026, but if I were picking between the two, I would definitely choose Bailey. Georgia Southern has been a road favorite just three previous times under head coach Clay Helton. They are 1-2 ATS in those spots. This also marks just the second time they have been a road favorite against a conference opponent under Helton. For what its worth, they lost that game against Marshall in 2023. Georgia Southern is in no position to lay points on the road. Take a chance on the Chants. 

Temple +6 South Florida

This is a battle of the best 1-3 team in the country against the worst 4-0 team in the country. Temple has been agonizingly close to breaking through in KC Keeler's second season in Philly. The Owls blew a late two touchdown lead and lost in overtime to Toledo (probably the best team in the MAC) and then on a short week, dropped a tight game to Army. Meanwhile, South Florida has beaten their three FBS opponents by a combined 22 points. They trailed by ten points in the fourth to Army, but came back to win. Last week, they were being shut out by putrid Bowling Green, but scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to beat one of the worst teams in the MAC. The Bulls are also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, which is not an ideal strategy for getting margin on an opponent. Among teams that have played four games, only six teams have run fewer plays than the Bulls. I think Temple is the better team and as they are catching nearly a touchdown, they are an easy play. 

Southern Cal -9.5 Washington

It doesn't seem like Lincoln Riley is going to be able to get it done in Los Angeles. And by 'it' I mean win the Pac-12 Big 10 or make the College Football Playoff. Serves him right for running scared out of Norman because the Sooners were going to the SEC. But I digress. While the Trojans have struggled on their long road trips (maybe he should consult with cross town rival Bob Chesney about the best way to handle cross country flights) and against elite teams, they have handled patsies like Washington. And rest assured, Washington is a patsy. The Huskies are 3-7 straight up in true road games under head coach Jedd Fisch and an incredible 0-6 ATS as a road underdog. This is their first road game of the year after spending the first month in the friendly confines of the Pacific Northwest. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this season. I have a hard time envisioning the Trojans not getting to at least 38 points in this game and I don't think Washington can keep up. 

Fresno State +2 Washington State

Fresno State needs to change their scheduling tactics under Matt Entz. The past two seasons they have opened with road games against power conference opponents and the results have been less than ideal. Kansas beat them 31-7 last year and Southern Cal blanked them 39-0 this season. Both results devalued Fresno State in the betting market. Fresno won eight of their last eleven games after last season's rough debut against Kansas. They also went 3-1 both ATS and straight up as a betting underdog. This season, they have won three in a row after their shellacking in the LA Coliseum. The competition has not been the strongest (the three teams they have beaten have one FBS win between them), but the competition in Pullman should not be that strong either. I was on Washington State last week as they were catching double digits at home against former conference mate Arizona. The Cougars covered (barely), but were outplayed pretty significantly by Arizona, especially after the first quarter. Washington State averaged under five yards per play, as they have in all three games against FBS opponents. Quarterback Caden Pinnick is a fun player who moves well and can make things happen off schedule. However, he takes too many sacks (ten so far) and the Cougars cannot consistently move the ball. They have scored three offensive touchdowns in three games against FBS teams. Their kicking game is also bad, as kicker Jack Stevens has converted on just two of seven field goal attempts on the season. Fresno State should be laying about a field goal. With a plus sign in front of their name, they are the play.