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Last Week: 6-1
Overall: 10-10-1
Clemson -1 California
It may not be hyperbole to say Clemson saved its season and perhaps Dabo's tenure in the upstate by surging back to beat North Carolina last week. A loss would have dropped the Tigers to 1-2 with this late night cross country trip followed by a home game with presumptive ACC overlord (but as of now, never champion) Miami. The Tigers would have been unlikely to pull out of a 1-4 start, but now they could start ACC play 2-0 if they can win on the road against their natural rivals from the west coast. Clemson gave the reigns to quarterback Tait Reynolds and he played well after a slow start against what seems to be a solid North Carolina defense. The only reason I can think of to back Cal in this spot is the travel. This is Clemson's first road trip to the west coast to face either of the bay area teams, so that should give a slight edge to Cal. However, Cal has not exactly dominated their ACC opponents when they face them in Berkely. The Bears are 2-5 straight up at home against ACC teams not named Stanford, so the travel has not guaranteed success. In addition, while Cal looked good last week against Wagner, the Bears were pretty lackluster in their first two games against FBS opponents. UCLA and Syracuse combined to outgain the Bears by over 200 yards and perhaps more concerning, by nearly two yards per play. Syracuse repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, including a pick six, and missed field goals to give the Bears the win. Had the Bears lost that game, one has to think Clemson would be favored by more in this spot.
Boston College +14 Virginia Tech
I was high on Boston College in the offseason (relatively) thanks to the Division II quarterback they imported from Saginaw Valley State. However, Mason McKenzie has been less than stellar through three games as an FBS quarterback. He has thrown for three touchdowns and rushed for over 200 yards, but he has also thrown five interceptions. Despite solid per play averages, the Eagles have failed to score more than 28 points in any game and two of their opponents include Rutgers and Maine from the FCS. Their most recent game, a nailbiter against the Black Bears is probably accounting for this inflated line. The Eagles beat Maine 22-16 last week, thanks to struggles on fourth down and in the red zone. The Eagles failed to convert both their fourth down attempts against Maine and on the season, they have converted on just two of seven fourth downs. They also ventured into the red zone five times against Maine and managed zero touchdowns. They kicked two field goals, meaning they averaged 1.2 points per red zone possession. Football is a small sample size sport and as the season progresses one would expect Boston College to progress toward a more average fourth down conversion percentage and score a few more touchdowns once they get inside the red zone. That is of course far from guaranteed, but I think their struggles thus far are giving you a few points of value in this line. And while their opponent comes into this game riding high off three consecutive multi-score wins to start the season, the Hokies have not been quite as dominant when you look under the hood. In their past two victories against Old Dominion and Maryland, the Hokies have been outgained by nearly a yard per play (6.32 to 5.35). They have also struggled running the football. After ripping through VMI in their opener, the Hokies have averaged under three yards per carry against the Monarchs and Terrapins. Finally, Virginia Tech has a pretty big game on deck. They host Pitt on a Friday night six days after this trip to Chestnut Hill. The Eagles may not have their full attention. Combining all those aspects and spotting me two touchdowns, makes the Eagles the play.
Wyoming +3 Hawaii
The past two plus seasons have shown how good a job Craig Bohl did at Wyoming. While Bohl's overall record in Laramie was a mediocre 61-60 over ten seasons, lets compare that number to the ten seasons prior to his arrival. Between 2004 and 2013, the Cowboys went 53-68. That looks like marginal improvement under Bohl. But now, lets look at how the program has cratered since his departure. In two and a quarter seasons under Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys are 8-19 and unless something dramatic happens in Mountain West play, I would expect them to be in the market for a new head coach in 2027. That being said, I'm not sure Hawaii should be laying points away from the islands. Under Timmy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors are 4-14 straight up away from Honolulu when facing other other non-power opponents. Two of those victories came last season when Hawaii was actually good. Their three results thus far have not aged well. Stanford has scored thirteen total points in their other two games after dropping 37 on Hawaii. UNLV held Hawaii to six points, but their other two opponents combined to score 71 points on them. Hawaii's most impressive win came at home against New Mexico State. However, the box score indicated this was a much more even game than the final ten point margin. New Mexico State lost the turnover margin by two and was stopped on fourth down on another drive. Wyoming has their backs against the wall and I expect quarterback Tyler Hughes, a transfer from William and Mary of the FCS, to play better. He tossed three interceptions over the entirety of last season for the Tribe, but has already thrown five against stiffer competition at the FBS level. Playing at home against a team that struggles on the road, I expect him to have his best game of the season and for Wyoming to stave off the proverbial wolves at the door for another week.
Washington State +10.5 Arizona
Younger readers may not know this, but there used to be a major conference located entirely in the western United States. And these two teams were in it together for about 45 years. Once the Pac-12 split into divisions, these two saw less of each other, but they still played nine times between the 2011 and the Pac-12's temporary demise following the 2023 season. Washington State won six of the past nine meetings, but Arizona won the most recent iteration in blowout fashion. The betting market does not foresee a tight game, but I do. Washington State had a rough start to the season, facing their rivals in a warm weather Apple Cup before heading to Big 12 darkhorse Kansas State. They lost both those games by double digits, scoring just 17 points in the process, but there were some extenuating circumstances. They were on their third head coach in as many seasons and were breaking in an FCS transfer at quarterback. Things looked better when they returned home to Pullman and got to face an overmatched FCS team. I don't think the offense will match the 48 points they hung on Duquesne last week, but I think they will top the 17 total points they scored in their first two games. Arizona is just 4-7 straight up on the road under head coach Brent Brennan, notching three of those wins as they closed the season on a heater last year. The defense was the primary driver for their success last season, but with significant losses, I expect a significant drop off this season. It hasn't happened thus far, but the early season schedule has included an FCS team (Northern Arizona) and one of the worst teams in FBS (Northern Illinois). This is a weird spot for Arizona as they already have one Big 12 loss (at BYU) and return to conference action next week hosting Cincinnati. I don't think the Cougars will have their full attention and I don't think they will win by double digits.
Missouri +6.5 Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby has Mississippi State back in the top 25 of the AP Poll for the first time since 2022. Now the Bulldogs will be looking to do another thing they have not done since 2022 -- win a conference home game. The Bulldogs lost all four of their SEC home games in 2023 under former head coach (and current defensive coordinator) Zach Arnett. In 2024, under first year head coach Lebby, they again went 0-4 in their SEC home slate. Last season, they got their first conference win under Lebby (at Arkansas), but again failed to win a single conference home game. Bulldog fans have not seen their team defeat an SEC opponent in Starkville since November 5, 2022. That's an unlucky thirteen in a row for those scoring at home. Now after consecutive road wins against power conference foes (Minnesota and South Carolina), the Bulldogs return home as solid favorites against Missouri. After beating Kansas in an emotional Border War battle, the Tigers suffered a case of somnambulism against Troy and scraped by the Trojans. I think that result was more of a flat spot than a referendum on the quality of Missouri's football team. Its easy to pick and choose evidence that supports your narrative, but I'll note Missouri barely survived a bad Middle Tennessee State team in 2023 on their way to the Cotton Bowl. Mississippi State is better than we anticipated, but this spread has moved too far. Back the Tigers catching nearly a touchdown on the road.
Louisiana Monroe +13.5 Florida Atlantic
Last week's home loss to Southeast Louisiana was probably the nail in the coffin for the Bryan Vincent era in Monroe. Its a shame since the past two seasons have started with so much optimism (relatively). The Warhawks began the 2024 season 5-1, with victories against James Madison and Troy, but lost their final seven games to finish with a losing record. Last season, they started 3-1, but dropped their final eight games. And now they are 0-3 in Vincent's third season. After an expected shellacking at the hands of Mississippi State, the Warhawks have dropped tight games to UAB and the aforementioned Lions of the FCS. Despite the loss, Louisiana-Monroe nearly doubled up Southeast Louisiana in terms of yardage and averaged a yard more per play. However, they were undone by turnovers (-2 margin) and two non-offensive touchdowns (interception and punt return). Can they put up a fight as nearly two touchdown home underdogs? I think so. Florida Atlantic won the Shula Bowl last week against FIU, but the Owls were outgained by almost 100 yards and averaged under four yards per play. In fact, their three opponents have outgained them by more than two yards per play (6.74 to 4.62). Now some of that margin came in their opener when they were outmanned against Florida, but Navy and FIU both significantly beat the Owls on a per play basis. In addition, all of Florida Atlantic's scoring and yardage will have to come through the air as they have been inept on the ground. Oddly enough, their best total rushing yardage (120) and per rush average (3.24) came against the Gators. Against Navy and FIU, the Owls have totaled 98 rushing yards on 75 carries! Even if we remove the sack yardage (which we totally should), the Owls barely averaged over two yards per rush (144 yards on 69 carries) in those two games. This is an ugly dog and no one will likely want to back them after their showing last week, but I would not be surprised if this game is in doubt late in the fourth quarter.
Rice +13.5 Fresno State
Sixteen games into his tenure at Fresno State, former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz has done a pretty good job. The Bulldogs finished 9-4 last season and are 2-1 through three games in 2026. The betting market expects them to be 3-1 as of early Sunday morning. However, quarterback play seems to be limiting the ceiling of this team. Last year, the Bulldogs elected to have EJ Warner be their starting quarterback. The transfer from Rice and Temple finally won some games, but he was below average. He threw nearly as many interceptions (11) as touchdowns (13) and the team averaged just north of 23 points per game against FBS opponents. Jayden Mandal has started all three games for the Bulldogs this season and he has posted decent numbers overall numbers, but almost all of the positive numbers came against Sacramento State. The Hornets are technically an FBS team, but their quality is much more of the FCS variety. He looked awful against Southern Cal, a team that may not be as good defensively as we initially thought. In their moist recent game, he was fine against San Jose State. He completed just north of half his passes, but didn't thrown an interception. The Bulldogs won 26-10, but that final margin was buoyed by four San Jose State interceptions. Turnovers are great, but even with winning the turnover margin by four against the Spartans, the Bulldogs scored only 26 points. This game features two running teams, so the number of possessions should be reduced which will make it harder for Fresno State to get margin. I think the ceiling for the Bulldogs barring a barrage of Rice mistakes is 28 points. If Rice can score two touchdowns, they should cover this number.
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