2025 Yards Per Play: Sun Belt

Hard to believe, but have come to our last set of conference reviews. We are staying in the south as we check in on the Sun Belt. 

Here are the 2025 Sun Belt standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Sun Belt team. This includes conference play only with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2025 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Seven Sun Belt teams (half the conference) saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on Net YPP. Troy, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Arkansas State overachieved, while Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, and Georgia State underachieved. Troy was solid in close games (2-0 in one-score Sun Belt games), but the reason the Trojans made a surprise run to the Sun Belt Championship Game was their remarkable ability to keep conference opponents out of the end zone. Their eight Sun Belt foes made 33 trips into the red zone, but came away with touchdowns just 14 times in those trips (42%). Coastal Carolina was just 1-1 in one-score conference games, but the Chanticleers had the best in-conference turnover margin (+9) and were elite at getting their opponents off the field on fourth down. Sun Belt teams went for it on fourth down 22 times against the boys from Conway, but only kept their drive going eight times (36%). Louisiana-Lafayette was 4-0 in one-score Sun Belt games, winning their final three games by a combined ten point to attain bowl eligibility. Arkansas State was just 3-2 in one-score Sun Belt games, but all three of those close wins came by exactly one point. For the underachievers, Louisiana-Monroe lost the only one-score Sun Belt game they played, but also had the second worst in-conference turnover margin (-9) and struggled converting fourth downs (8 of 22 in conference play). Texas State was 0-4 in one-score Sun Belt games as the Bobcats failed to live up to their lofty preseason hype. Finally, Georgia State finished 0-2 in one-score Sun Belt games and also struggled converting fourth downs (8 of 23 in conference play). 

Sorting the Over and Underachievers

A lot of teams in the Sun Belt in 2025 saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on Net YPP. Not only did seven teams over or underachieve by at least .200, five over or underachieved by at least .300. Teams that overachieve by at least .200 tend to regress the next season while those that underachieve by .200 tend to improve. Nothing groundbreaking there. Simple regression to the mean. That of course, is in the aggregate. Since over or underachieving by .300 is extreme, I wanted to conduct a more microanalysis and see what might be reasonable expectations for this quintet of Sun Belt teams, and Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are located in the south and may be spiritually considered a Sun Belt team, but they were also the only other non-power conference team to see their actual record differ from their expected record based on Net YPP by at least .300. In the 21 seasons I have been tracking Net YPP, 36 non-power teams have exceeded their expected record by .300 and 38 have underachieved by at least .300. I grouped those teams of over and underachievers into buckets based on how many conference games they won or lost and looked at how they performed the following season. To me, this makes much more sense when prospecting how Jacksonville State might perform in 2026. The Gamecocks finished 7-1 in Conference USA in 2025 and should be compared to other teams that finished with similar records, not teams that finished in the middle of their respective conferences. 

We'll start with the overachievers. The table below lists all non-power teams that exceeded their expected record based on Net YPP by at least .300 and finished with exactly one conference loss. Their follow-up season is also included along with the aggregate record of the teams the following season. 

The nine teams most similar to Jacksonville State saw their conference winning percentage decline by .271 (a little over two wins in an eight game conference schedule). Gamecock fans should be prepared for perhaps their worst season as an FBS program. However, decline is not certain as Boise State and Cincinnati were able to buck the trend in back-to-back seasons. 

Next up are the overachievers most comparable to Troy (two conference losses). The Trojans played in the Sun Belt Championship Game for the third time in four seasons, but were not in the same class as the Jon Sumrall coached teams of 2022 and 2023. 

For two loss teams, the decline was more significant. Overall, the 14 teams declined by .312 in conference winning percentage (2.5 wins over an eight game conference schedule). Only one team improved and half of the cohort finished with a losing conference record the next season.

Closing out our overachievers are the teams most similar to Coastal Carolina (three conference losses). The Chanticleers played in their sixth consecutive bowl game, but fired their coach anyway.

Its impossible to have a lot of confidence based on a sample size of two teams. Arkansas State maintained a winning record in their follow-up campaign, while Buffalo dropped two games in the standings. I feel pretty confident Jacksonville State and Troy will not match the heights they reached in 2025, but Coastal Carolina is a true wild card. I would not be shocked if the Chanticleers competed for a bid to the Sun Belt Championship Game or finished in the basement of the Sun Belt East. 

Now we move to the underachievers. The table below lists all non-power teams that underachieved relative to expected record based on Net YPP by at least .300 and finished winless in conference play (as Georgia State did in 2025). Their follow-up season is also included along with the aggregate record of the teams the following season. 

The good news for Georgia State and Dell McGee is the Panthers are unlikely to finish winless in the Sun Belt. Of course, unlikely does not mean impossible. The Panthers need only look to their own history to find an example of a winless team that failed to improve despite solid peripherals. Even when accounting for the two teams that remained winless, this group of losers improved by roughly three wins in an eight game conference season. Five of 13 finished with at least a .500 conference record and one (Fresno State) played in their conference title game the following season. 

Next up are the underachievers most comparable to Louisiana-Monroe (one conference win). The Warhawks began Sun Belt play with a victory against Arkansas State, but lost their final seven Sun Belt games after dropping their last five Sun Belt games in 2024. 

Surprisingly, the one win teams finished with a marginally worse aggregate record the next season than the winless teams. Only one team got worse, but six of the nine still finished with a losing conference record. 

Closing out our underachievers are the teams most similar to Texas State (three conference wins). The Bobcats won three Sun Belt games in a row to close the season (all by double digits) after losing their first five conference games. 

As with the three-loss teams, there is a sample size issue with the three-win teams. If you squint though, you can see a lot of Florida Atlantic in Texas State. The Owls were led by a young, offensive minded coach and were coming off a season where they struggled in close games (0-4 in one-score conference games). The Owls rebounded to win Conference USA in 2019. Can the Bobcats do the same in the reconstituted Pac-12 in 2026?

I would expect Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Texas State to all improve in 2026. The Panthers and Warhawks probably won't be playing in bowl games, but I think they can both get close. Meanwhile, despite the small sample size for similar three-win teams, the Bobcats bad luck in 2025 probably served to keep head coach GJ Kinne around for an extra year. A run to the Pac-12 Championship Game would not surprise me.