First Half Point Differential: The 2023 Group of Five

Happy Independence Day to those who celebrate! While baseball may still be the official national pastime, college football is what we hold near and dear to our hearts around these parts. And after a brief sabbatical, we return to our review of the 2023 college football season. This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2023 AAC standings.

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the AAC Championship Game, with the far more dominant team winning on their opponents homefield. Their bowl loss put a disappointing coda on their season, but SMU was a fantastic team in 2023 and probably deserved the G5 NY6 bid that ultimately went to Liberty.

Conference USA

The 2023 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded). 

In a bit of an upset, Western Kentucky, losers of three league games, edges Liberty to eke out the 1HPD crown. Unfortunately, they don't hang any banners for that. While Liberty went unbeaten in Conference USA play, their 1HPD was not historically dominant. In the Conference USA Championship Game, the Flames faced the fourth place finisher in IHPD, New Mexico State.  

Mid-American

The 2023 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded). 

The MAC will be doing away with divisions in 2024, but they stuck with their antiquated structure in 2023. In the East, Bowling Green was a true feast or famine team. They led by double digits at the half in four of their eight conference games, and trailed by double digits in two others. Miami ultimately won the division (and the conference) despite a fourth place finish in 1HPD. Toledo ran away with the 1HPD crown and finished unbeaten in the regular season despite decent, but not great 1HPD numbers. 

Mountain West

The 2023 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

The league's hottest team (San Jose State closed by winning their final six conference games) finished tied with Wyoming atop the 1HPD standings. Wyoming's 1HPD was buoyed by their domination of Hawaii (+35 in that game and +27 in their other seven conference games). The Spartans also tied with Boise State and UNLV atop the league standings, but lost the tiebreaker and missed out on a Mountain West Championship Game appearance. 

Sun Belt

The 2023 Sun Belt standings.

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

James Madison was ineligible for the Sun Belt Championship Game, but they ranked first in 1HPD. The Dukes also topped the Sun Belt charts in YPP margin. At the bottom of the league, Louisiana-Monroe nearly hit triple digits in the red in 1HPD. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Toledo finished unbeaten in MAC play, but trailed by double digits at the half in two of their conference games. In their MAC opener, the Rockets trailed Western Michigan by ten, but came back to win comfortably. Then in their penultimate regular season game, they trailed Bowling Green by eighteen, but rallied in the second half to win by a point. Tulane also managed an unbeaten conference record despite trailing at the half in two of their league games. However, their deficits were much smaller (four and six points) than Toledo's. New Mexico State had their best season since the 1960s (and even beat an SEC team to boot), but their 7-1 league record was fraudulent. The Aggies trailed at the half in three of their conference games and were tied in two others. Jacksonville State also ran up an impressive record in Conference USA, despite middling 1HPD numbers. The FBS neophytes trailed at the half in four of their league games (three times by double digits). Miami, the team that beat Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, was also an overachiever relative to their 1HPD numbers. The Redhawks only trailed at the half in one MAC game (against Toledo), but they also led by a touchdown or less in three games. Liberty was yet another G5 team that finished unbeaten in league play despite not posting dominant 1HPD numbers. The Flames never trailed at the half in conference play, but they were tied twice and led by less than a touchdown two other times. 

And now the underachievers. 

East Carolina only led at the half in two of their conference games, but they never trailed by a margin befitting a team that won just a single conference games. They were tied at the half in one game and trailed by a touchdown or less in four others. Kent State finished last in the MAC in 1HPD, but they actually led at the half in two conference games despite finishing winless in league play. UAB led at the half in four of their conference games, were tied in another, and trailed by less than a touchdown in two more. The Blazers might be poised for a breakout season in Trent Dilfer's second year at the helm. Middle Tennessee State led at the half in five of their conference games, were tied in one, and trailed by a field goal in another. Rick Stockstill's loss might be Derek Mason's gain. Akron finished 1-7 in MAC play for the second consecutive year under Joe Moorhead. They also underachieved by a nearly identical amount last season. If Moorhead has designs on coaching a fourth season at Akron, the Zips better start holding onto some of these halftime leads. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Five.