First Half Point Differential: The 2023 Power Five

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Five.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2023 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

In a bit of a surprise, NC State and Virginia Tech came out on top in the 1HPD standings. Overall, the top of the ACC was pretty muddled, with thirteen points separating the top-ranked Wolfpack and fourth place Louisville Cardinals. At the bottom of the standings, Syracuse was one of five Power Five teams to finish at least 100 points in the red in 1HPD. 

Big 10

The 2023 Big 10 standings. 

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State were clearly the three best teams in the Big 10 last season and they finished one, two, three in 1HPD as well. In fact, the top four teams in 1HPD were all from the Big 10 East. Iowa, the winner of the Big 10 West, was the only team from that division to finish with a positive 1HPD. 

Big 12

The 2023 Big 12 standings. 

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Texas and Oklahoma were the top two teams in 1HPD, but Oklahoma State pulled off a slew of second half comebacks (more on that later) and waltzed to their second Big 12 Championship Game in three years. They lost for the second time, but at least this defeat was not heartbreaking. At the other end of the Big 12 standings, Baylor put up a 1HPD that was nearly twice as bad as the second worst team (Cincinnati). 

Pac-12 

The 2023 Pac-12 standings. 

1HPD in Pac-12 play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the final (for now) Pac-12 Championship Game. But as was the case in their regular season clash, the more dominant team failed to win. Oregon more than doubled up Washington in 1HPD, but dropped two tight games to the Huskies, keeping them out of the College Football Playoff. The two teams without dance partners after the destruction of the league (Oregon State and Washington State) both finished with positive 1HPD numbers. 

SEC

The 2023 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play (title game excluded).

For the third year in a row, Georgia finished as the 1HPD SEC champ. However, their SEC-pacing numbers in 2023 were roughly half of their insane 2021 numbers (+161). And for the second time in three years, they dropped the SEC Championship Game to a statistically inferior Alabama. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Oklahoma State was the biggest overachiever of 2023 and one of the biggest 1HPD overachievers I have ever tracked. The Cowboys trailed at the half in six of their nine conference games, but managed to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game (where they were mostly non-competitive). Alabama trailed at the half in three of their eight SEC games, including once by double digits, but the Tide were able to finish Nick Saban's incredible career with another unbeaten conference season. Florida State only trailed at the half in two ACC games, but their 1HPD was not befitting an undefeated conference season. Similarly, Washington only trailed at the half in two Pac-12 games, but outside of their shellacking of Cal (up 33 at the half), most of their league games were close at halftime. Iowa also trailed at the half in just two Big 10 games, but as you might have surmised from their aversion to offensive football, they never led by more than a touchdown at the half in any conference game. Stanford trailed at the half in eight of their nine Pac-12 games, including four times by double digits. The Cardinal were fortunate to get to two league wins, especially considering one involved a miraculous comeback at Colorado. Finally, Louisville trailed at the half in three of their ACC games, including twice by double digits, but managed to flip the script in the second half and qualify for their first ACC Championship Game. 

And now the underachievers. 

While their brethren in Seattle were the kings of clutch, Washington State could not close the deal. The Cougars were tied or leading at the half in five of their nine Pac-12 games, but finished with just two league wins. Auburn was either tied or leading at the half in five of their eight SEC games, but still managed to finish with a losing record. UCF's maiden foray into Power Five football did not go as planned. The Knights were leading or tied at the half in six of their nine Big 12 games, but managed just three league wins. Despite a 1-8 league record that ultimately ended the Tom Allen era in Bloomington, the Hooisers held halftime leads in three of their Big 10 games and trailed by single digits in four others. Blown halftime leads also ended the career of Jimbo Fisher in College Station. The Aggies held halftime leads in seven of their eight SEC games (with three being double digit leads), but could not finish with a winning conference record. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will be time for the season to start. Hooray!