2022 Yards Per Play: Mountain West

Six conferences down, four to go. This week we shed our east coast bias and examine the Mountain West. 

Here are the 2022 Mountain West standings. 

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Mountain West team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2022 season, which teams in the Mountain West met this threshold? Here are Mountain West teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Fresno State and Utah State significantly overachieved relative to their expected record based on YPP while Colorado State and Nevada significantly underachieved. Fresno State was 3-0 in one-score conference games, but their I believe the disparity between their actual and expected record is due to the injury suffered by quarterback Jake Haener. Haener missed Fresno State's first three conference games. The Bulldogs went 2-1 in those games and averaged 0.18 more yards per play than their three opponents (Boise State, San Jose State, and New Mexico), while averaging a pedestrian 5.18 yards per play. Over their last five league games with Haener, the Bulldogs averaged 6.37 yards per play and bested Mountain West opponents by 1.05 yards per play. I think they proved they were the best team in the conference with Haener when they defeated Boise State on the Smurf Turf in the Mountain West Championship Game. Utah State exceeded their expected record for the second consecutive year mostly due to their 4-0 record in one-score conference games (they were 3-0 last year, so maybe Blake Anderson brought a rabbit's foot with him from Arkansas State). Colorado State and Nevada were both breaking in new coaches (with Colorado State breaking in Nevada's former head coach). Nevada was 0-3 in one-score conference games, posted the worst in-conference turnover margin in the Mountain West (-6), and in two of their close losses (Colorado State and UNLV), non-offensive touchdowns were a major contributing factor. Colorado State's disparity is a little harder to get a handle on. The Rams improved on both sides of the ball as the season progressed. In their first four conference games, the Rams posted a Net YPP of -0.57. However, they managed to win two of those four games (both wins by a combined seven points). Over their final four conference games, they posted a Net YPP of +1.54. However, they dropped three of those four games (one loss by a single point). Over those final four games, the Rams posted elite YPP margins. It will be interesting to see if they can continue that solid play in 2023. 

Worst Modern Offense?

Two Mountain West teams finished winless in league play in 2022, Nevada and New Mexico. Both also finished with the worst per play offenses in the Mountain West. However, while their rankings are one spot apart, the Wolfpack finished more than a yard per play clear of the Lobos. And you may also remember the Lobos also finished with the worst per play offense in conference play in the Mountain West last season. Not only have they finished last in back-to-back season, they have also finished below four yards per play in consecutive seasons. This feat has not been matched by any other mid-major team in the time I have been tracking Yards Per Play (since 2005). 

Give the Lobos credit. They did improve slightly in per play offense. However, it was the second worst improvement behind only...New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. As you can see, the average offense improved by more than a yard per play. 

Not only did the Lobos struggle moving the football, they also had a hard time scoring. In 2021, the Lobos scored seven offensive touchdowns in eight conference games. In 2022, they scored...seven offensive touchdowns in eight conference games. In the process they became the first mid-major team to average one offensive touchdown or less in conference play in consecutive seasons. 

The Lobos were the only team to not improve their offensive touchdowns per game output. Prior to their bar-lowering ineptitude, their in-state rivals in Las Cruces held the record for slightest improvement among offensively challenged teams (the Aggies scored an additional half touchdown more per WAC game in 2010 than they did in 2009). Offensive coordinator Derek Warehime was let go in October (and rightfully so), but for head coach Danny Gonzales to survive 2023, the offense must show some signs of life.