2022 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Mountain West

Happy 420 to all who celebrate. Last week we looked at how Mountain West teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2022 Mountain West standings. 

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Mountain West teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Half of the Mountain West saw their APR differ significantly from their actual record. Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, and Wyoming won more games that we would expect from their ratio of touchdowns scored and allowed, while Hawaii and Air Force won fewer. Colorado State actually underachieved relative to their YPP numbers as we discussed last week. The Rams were not able to covert their decent per play offense (eighth in the Mountain West) into actual touchdowns (eleventh). Meanwhile, their very good defense (second in yards allowed per play) was not able to keep teams out of the endzone (seventh in touchdowns allowed). San Diego State and Wyoming were similar in quality and style. Both had trouble scoring, but were pretty good at keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone. However, they both allowed more touchdowns that they scored in Mountain West play despite posting identical 5-3 conference records. Wyoming did finish 3-1 in one-score conference games which helps explain some of the disconnect between their APR and their actual record. UNLV actually finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, but the difference between their APR and actual record can be explained by an injury to their starting quarterback. Doug Brumfield missed a conference game and major parts of two others meaning he saw significant action in five of UNLV's Mountain West games. In the five games he participated in, the Rebels were 2-3, but they outscored their opponents while averaging 26 points per game. In the three games Brumfield either missed or was a light participant, the Rebels were 1-2, averaged under 14 points per game, and were outscored by 21 points per game. For Air Force and Hawaii, the difference in their APR and actual record can easily be explained by their close games struggles. The Falcons and Warriors combined to finish 1-7 in one-score Mountain West games. 

Second Half Adjustments

Last week we discussed in detail the abysmal offense in Albuquerque. While researching how bad the Lobos were, I noticed something. Despite finishing with zero Mountain West wins in 2022, the Lobos were actually ahead in three games at halftime. They led UNLV by eight in an eventual eleven point loss. They were up a touchdown on Wyoming in a thirteen point loss. And they were up three on Utah State in a seventeen point loss. What did all three games have in common? The Lobos scored three total points in the second half of those games. 

New Mexico's offense was bad in 2022. They scored seven total offensive touchdowns in eight games. However, in the first half of their conference games, the offense was competent. It wasn't good, but the Lobos at least looked like they were capable of throwing, catching, and blocking like a college football team full of actual players on scholarship. The second half of those games was another story. 

That is not a misprint. New Mexico scored one offensive touchdown in the second half of their conference games in 2022. It came in the conference opener when they were down 24-0 to Boise State. In other words, the Lobos are on a seven game streak of zero second half touchdowns. New Mexico opens Mountain West play on the last day of September in Laramie. When the second half of that games kicks off, they will have gone a full calendar year without scoring a second half touchdown in conference play!