2022 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2022 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Using the somewhat arbitrary standard of a game and a half, Bowling Green and Akron were the only teams that saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR. Bowling Green significantly overachieved. The Falcons finished with a winning conference record despite allowing nine more touchdowns than they scored in MAC play. Four of their five conference wins came by a touchdown or less while all three of their conference losses came by at least 24 points (total margin of defeat in those losses was 89 points). Akron significantly underachieved and they also underachieved relative to their YPP numbers and we went over some reasons for that last week. 

Punching Above His Weight Class

Last week, we took an in depth look at one half of the duo of longest tenured MAC coaches, Chuck Martin. This week, we take a look at the phenomenal job Chris Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan. 

When Chuck Martin took over at Miami, the Redhawks were suffering through a downturn, but at least they had history of success. The Redhawks finished with a winning MAC record for twelve consecutive seasons between 1994 and 2005 and they finished the 2003 season ranked tenth in the AP Poll. That was certainly not the case when Chris Creighton became head coach at Eastern Michigan. Before Creighton, Eastern Michigan had employed nine non-interim head coaches since they joined FBS in 1975. None left Ypsilanti with a winning record. By winning percentage, the best was Ed Chlebek, who engineered an eight win campaign in 1977 and got the heck out of town. Before Creighton's arrival, the Eagles had not finished with a winning record since 1995! Creighton had a track record for winning at difficult places, posting winning records at disparate outposts Ottawa, Wabash, and Drake. Like Martin, Creighton did not employ quick fixes at Eastern Michigan. His first two teams finished a combined 3-21 (1-15 in MAC play), but since 2016, he has put a competitive product on the field. The Eagles are 43-40 (26-28 in MAC play) and have played in five bowl games. However, perhaps his most impressive accomplishment is the number of Power scalps the Eagles have claimed for the MAC in that span.

The Eagles upset Rutgers in 2017 and have beaten Power Five teams in 2018, 2019, and 2022. Prior to the 2017 victory, Eastern Michigan had never beaten a team from a Power Five conference (or the functional equivalent in pre-College Football Playoff days). The Eagles only get one crack at a Power Five team in 2023, but a fifth victory over one of the big boys wouldn't shock me.