2012 Big 12 SDPI

Spring football is in the air to whet your appetite just in time for the long hot summer to arrive. This week, we'll take a look at how the Big 12 played out in 2012. For the second consecutive year, a team not named Oklahoma claimed the conference crown and the requisite BCS berth (though the Sooners did share the title). To catch you up, here's a link to last year's Big 12 post.

First here are the 2012 Big 12 standings.

And here are the 2012 Big 12 standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.

To say there was parity in the Big 12 last season would be an understatement. Nine of the league's ten teams finished bowl eligible, and eight concluded the postseason with a winning record. 60% of the teams in the conference finished with either four or five league wins, culminating in quite a log jam as four teams finished tied for fifth place.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Fresh off a season that nearly saw them play for a national title, and their first top-five finish since just after World War II, the Oklahoma State Cowboys were destined to regress. However, their five win conference season could easily have been seven. The Cowboys started three different quarterbacks thanks to a slew of injuries, lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, and finished outside the final polls for the first time since 2009. Rest assured though, Mike Gundy's team has reach a new floor. With more experience and a little better luck in 2013, the Cowboys will be in the running for another league title.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
I've made no secret of my affinity for Kansas State and their legend...wait for it...dary coach Bill Snyder. However, while the Wildcats were certainly a solid team, their statistical profile did not befit a team in contention for the national title until the season's final weeks. Kansas State did the little things well in 2012 to acquire such a sterling record. They forced a league-high 26 turnovers in their nine conference games, while committing a league-low seven for an amazing margin of +19 (Iowa State was second in Big 12 play at +5). While turnovers are somewhat a product of skill, they can be a fickle mistress, and one can be almost certain Kansas State will not post such a spectacular in-conference turnover margin in 2013.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Baylor 1.71
Sans RG3 and a few other former Bears now in the NFL, Baylor actually averaged 19 more yards per game in Big 12 play. The Bears topped 600 yards in five of their nine Big 12 games. Yet, they actually dropped two of those games. What could possibly be the reason for that (foreshadowing)?

Worst Offense: Iowa State -1.28
In a league where offense was the norm, Iowa State was held to twenty or fewer points in four of their nine conference games. Perhaps not surprisingly, their three conference wins all occurred in games where they scored at least 30 points.

Best Defense: TCU 1.53
Their first year in the Big 12 wasn't all they hoped it would be, but TCU still fielded an elite defense. The Horned Frogs held six of their nine league foes to fewer than 400 yards of total offense.

Worst Defense: Baylor -1.34
This is why Baylor lost a pair of games during which they gained over 600 yards (including one where they gained an even 700. Six conference opponents gained at least 500 yards of offense against the Bears.

Life on the Margins
In 2011, Kansas State boasted a fantastic in-conference turnover margin of +13. In 2012, they bettered that number to the tune of +19, giving them a turnover margin of +32 over two conference seasons. That is the largest in-conference turnover margin for a team from a BCS conference over that past eight seasons. Feast your eyes on the Wildcats and the rest of the top-10.

2012 Big 10 SDPI

We're almost five months away from any real amateur football (at least outside of Auburn) being played, but hopefully these SDPI recaps can keep you satiated. This week, we turn our attention to the nation's heartland, and the Big 10. 2013 will mark the final year of the Big 10 featuring twelve member schools (this incarnation will have lasted only three short seasons) as Rutgers and Maryland will join for the 2014 season. To catch you up, here is a link to last year's Big 10 post.

First here are the 2012 Big 10 standings.

And here are the 2012 Big 10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

Thanks to imposed sanctions at Ohio State and Penn State, the top-two teams according to SDPI were able to meet in the Big 10 Championship Game. Unfortunately, for the top-rated Huskers, the results from that game were quite forgettable. Wisconsin rolled up 70 points en route to their third consecutive Rose Bowl appearance. Now if they could just win one of those games...

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Wisconsin lost six games in 2012, a total very unbecoming of a champion from a major conference, much less a Rose Bowl participant. However, each loss came by seven points or fewer, and an amazing four losses came by exactly a field goal. In their four Big 10 losses, the combined margin of defeat was 16 points. None of their four Big 10 wins came by fewer than 17 points. Wisconsin bludgeoned the teams they were superior to and lost tight contests to their equals. If the Badgers had caught a few more breaks, 2012 could have resulted in a third-straight top-10 finish.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
The Buckeyes rang in the Urban Meyer era with an undefeated campaign. Unfortunately, they were ineligible for the conference crown and the postseason, so no banners will be hung. That could be poetic justice since the Buckeyes hardly had the makings of a powerhouse. The Buckeyes were solid on both sides of the ball, but this was hardly a juggernaut that rolled through the Big 10 leaving wolverine, lion, and badger carcasses in its wake. Fully half of their 12 wins came by a touchdown or less, including narrow escapes over luminaries like Cal, Indiana, and Purdue. Give the Buckeyes credit for their wins, but this team was not elite. More on that in just a bit.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Penn State 1.11
Bill O'Brien took over a reeling program and improved its offensive output from 345 yards per game in Big 10 play to 437 yards. No one will confuse the Penn State offense with the vintage Texas Tech teams of Mike Leach, but they were the best the Big 10 had to offer in 2012.

Worst Offense: Illinois -1.62
If you looked really closely on the Illinois sideline, it almost appeared as if Ron Zook was still coaching the team. The Illini averaged just 272 yards per game in league play and now are the proud owners of a 14-game conference losing streak.

Best Defense: Michigan State 1.12
Only a single Big 10 team gained more than 400 yards against the Spartan defense all season.

Worst Defense: Indiana -2.11
The Hoosiers had an interesting statistical sandwich in 2012. In their first three conference games, all defeats, they allowed 564 yards and 42.3 points per game. In their next two league games. both wins (their first conference winning streak since 2007), they allowed 359 yards and 19 points per game. Then, with bowl eligibility still a feasibility, they allowed 570 yards and 54.3 points per game in their final three league games (all losses).

Putting the 2012 Buckeyes in Historical Perspective
Ohio State finished the 2012 season undefeated and ranked 3rd in the AP Poll. It marked their third undefeated regular season since 2002. However, thanks to shenanigans during the previous administration, the Buckeyes were ineligible for the postseason and were not given a shot to play for the national championship. Did they deserve one? How good were they? To attempt to answer those questions, I looked at every team from a BCS conference that finished with an undefeated record prior to their bowl game since 1998 (the beginning of the BCS era). Including Ohio State last season, 20 teams have accomplished this feat. To objectively rate those teams, I used the Simple Rating System at college football reference dot com. The SRS uses margin of victory and strength of schedule to calculate how many points above average a particular team is. For instance, last season, Ohio State finished with an SRS of 13.81, meaning they were about two touchdowns better than an average team. This ranked 13th nationally. The results for the 20 teams are summarized in the table below.

Last year's Buckeyes were clearly in a class all by themselves. No other undefeated team from a BCS conference had performed at such a low level. No team had finished with an SRS score outside the top-six. Only one other team had finished below 17 points above average, and that was last season's Notre Dame team that was waxed by Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game. Remember, Ohio State didn't have a bowl game against an elite team to drag down their rating. Ohio State was good last season, but they didn't belong in the national championship game. Any team that struggled to put away Cal and Purdue at home, and Indiana on the road was probably not worthy of gridiron immortality.

2012 Big East SDPI

I know March Madness is ramping up and the Final Four is almost set, but lets go back and remember the legends of this past fall. Our second SDPI recap focuses on the Big East, a conference in flux in both membership and nomenclature. To get you on the up and up, here is a link to last year's Big East post.

First here are the 2012 Big East standings.

And here are the 2012 Big East SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of eight) in parentheses.

Things were pretty tight at the top of the Big East in the real standings (more on that later) and the SDPI ratings. Four teams tied for the conference crown while three teams finished at least one standard deviation above average.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
The Pitt Panthers opened the season by losing at home to IAA Youngstown State in grisly fashion. They one-upped that performance by opening conference play with three consecutive losses (to three of the four co-champions), but rebounded to win three of their final four conference games (all by at least three touchdowns) and give unbeaten Notre Dame a real challenge in South Bend. The Panthers were dominant over the final half of the Big East season, but theat performance could not make up for the huge hole they dug for themselves.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Louisville is the easy answer here. The Cardinals were hardly a top-15 team, but an easy schedule, a 6-1 record in one-score games (3-1 in the Big East), and a bowl upset will have this team drastically overrated heading into 2013. Temple was also much worse than their record. While the Owls managed just two wins in their return to the Big East, things could have easily been much worse. Their two wins came by a combined twelve points, while their five losses came by 125 points.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Syracuse 1.46
Behind senior quarterback Ryan Nassib, the Orange won their second bowl game in three seasons and tied for the league crown. The job this team did in winning eight games cannot be understated. Of their thirteen games, twelve were against teams from BCS conferences and eight were against teams that qualified for bowl games.

Worst Offense: Temple -1.09
The Owls began conference play by racking up 37 points in a home win over South Florida. Over their final six conference games, they averaged just 15.2 points per game.

Best Defense: Pitt 1.31
In their 0-3 start against the three best offenses in the conference, the Panthers allowed 410 yards and 31 points per game. When the competition eased up, the Panthers put the clamps down, allowing just 248 yards and 12.5 points per game over their 3-1 finishing kick.

Worst Defense: Temple -1.74
The Owls were miserable over their final four league contests, allowing 496 yards per game.

More Ties than a Board Room and The World Cup Combined
The Big East accomplished something pretty special in 2012. Four teams, or exactly half of its membership, shared the league championship. Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and Syracuse all finished with identical 5-2 records. This was historic for several reasons. It marked the third consecutive year there has been at least a three-way tie atop the standings. In 2010, Connecticut, Pitt, and West Virginia all finished 5-2 with the Huskies, by far the worst of the three teams claiming the league's BCS bid thanks to having beaten both the Panthers and Mountaineers. In 2011, Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia all finished 5-2 with a perfect rock/paper/scissors round robin result (Cincinnati beat Louisville who beat West Virginia who beat Cincinnati). West Virginia won the tiebreaker thanks to their loftier BCS ranking and annihilated Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Not only was this the third straight year the Big East had a mess at the top of the standings, but it was also just the second time in the BCS era (since 1998) that four teams finished tied atop the standings in a BCS conference. Care to guess when the other time was? It was another year of transition for the Big East conference. Miami and Virginia Tech pulled a Clarence Carter and slipped away to the ACC. Boston College was set to join them. The Big East had added Connecticut and was in the process of adding Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida whilst giving Temple the boot. Yes, 2004 was a strange time. The league had just seven teams, but amazingly, four teams (Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia) all shared the league crown. In 2013, neither of those four teams will be members of the Big East. Look back with awe and reverence on the 2012 Big East. With the ACC, Big 10, Pac-12, and SEC all playing championship games, and the Big East set to follow suit in the near future, it may be a long time before we see another four-way tie in a major conference.

2012 ACC SDPI

We're back! After a brief hiatus, our offseason tour through each of the eleven IA football conferences has returned. For those who don't know what SDPI is, here is the Reader's Digest synopsis. SDPI measures how many standard deviations a team is above or below average at gaining and preventing yards. Since conference play occurs in a vacuum, teams are rated against their conference mates and not against the nation at large. We'll begin with a look at the ACC. Here is a link to last year's ACC post.

First here are the 2012 ACC standings.

And here are the 2012 ACC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

The top of the ACC played out according to the SDPI ratings. Florida State and Clemson were the only two teams that finished with a total SDPI rating over 1.00. Perhaps not surprisingly, those two teams combined to go 14-2 in league play, and an even more impressive 13-1 when not facing each other (the lone loss came by a single point when the Seminoles visited NC State). Six of Florida State's seven league wins came by at least a touchdown and Clemson won all their conference games by double-digits. While the cream of the ACC resided on the Atlantic, the Coastal was more balanced. Teams ranked three through six by the SDPI metric were all housed in the Coastal. While the Atlantic and Coastal notched an even 9-9 record in the intra-division games, the four Atlantic teams outside of Florida State and Clemson were just 3-9 against their Coastal foes.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
One season after winning five ACC games, the Virginia Cavaliers only manged to win a quarter of their contests in 2012. The Cavaliers lost three games by a touchdown or less and were in the red in turnover margin in all six of their conference losses. In the lone conference game where they won the turnover battle, Virginia dominated NC State in Raleigh 33-6.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Duke won three games in the conference and qualified for their first bowl game since the Super NES and Sega Genesis were the consoles of choice. However, after winning their first two conference games (against Virginia and Wake Forest), the Blue Devils lost five of their final six and were outscored by 130 points in those contests. The Blue Devils also posted an in-conference best turnover margin of +10 and still managed just three wins. Of their six overall wins, only the home win over North Carolina (that clinched bowl eligibility) can be considered quality. Miami gets an honorable mention here as well. While the Hurricanes technically won the Coastal, and would have played in the ACC Championship Game if not for their self-imposed sanctions, they featured the second-worst defense in the conference and were fortunate to win five games in the league.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Clemson 1.54
For the second-consecutive year, the Tigers paced the ACC in offense. The Tigers gained at least 426 yards in every ACC game except one and twice went over 700 yards of total offense.

Worst Offense: Wake Forest -1.53
The Deacons opened league play with an impressive 426-yard effort in an upset of North Carolina. The Deacons would top 400 yards just once more in conference play, while being held below 300 yards five times.

Best Defense: Florida State 1.95
Clemson was the lone ACC team to eclipse 400 yards of total offense against the Seminoles.

Worst Defense: Duke -1.44
Wake Forest was the only ACC team not to eclipse 400 yards of total offense against the Blue Devils.

Is Florida State Back (For Real)?
Any preseason magazine that came out from say 2004 to 2010 absolutely declared that this was finally the year Florida State returned to the national elite. For the most part, those magazines were pretty wrong. In the twilight of the Bobby Bowden era, Florida State went from being the beast of the ACC and a national contender, to a middling ACC team that once lost three consecutive games to Wake Forest. The Seminoles finished the season ranked in the top-5 of the final AP Poll an incredible 14 consecutive times from 1987 to 2000. However, until the past season (a span of 12 years), the Seminoles did not finish in the AP top-10. With their first top-10 finish since the turn of the century, I think its fair to ask the question: Is Florida State really back? To answer that question, I decided to look at a few different metrics from the end of the Bowden era through the first three years of the Jimbo Fisher era that are summarized in the following table. 'Final AP' is pretty self-explanatory--it is the final ranking of the team in the AP Poll. 'Adj Pythag' is a metric of my own creation that takes touchdowns scored and touchdowns allowed within conference play and makes an estimation at the number of games a team would be expected to win. The number in parentheses is the conference rank for that particular year. Finally, 'SRS' stands for Simple Rating System and in a rudimentary way attempts to relay how many points above or below average a team is. The number in parentheses is the national rank for that particular year.

There is no doubt the Seminoles have improved after putting the old figurehead out to pasture. Florida State has finished the season ranked in the AP Poll for three consecutive years after finishing unranked in three of Bowden's final five seasons. The Seminoles have also consistently been among the best teams in the ACC during Fisher's brief tenure, ranking either first or second in Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Finally, the Seminoles have finished in the top-20 of the SRS for three consecutive years after accomplishing this just once in Bowden's final five seasons. While they may not be the devourer of worlds they were in the late-90's, the Seminoles have at least returned to a state of contention, both in the ACC and nationally.

The Future...

Some of you may have noticed (OK, one of you may have noticed) I have not made posts in a while. Don't worry, this blog is not going the way of the buffalo (or the way of the Buffaloes as it were). I have become a sporadic poster over at College Football by The Numbers. Here's my first post, a bowl preview. I will post previews of all the bowl games over there. Check them out if you're so inclined. In the offseason, I will continue posting at CFBT (probably about one post every week or two). However, this blog will remain active. Look for the annual SDPI recaps beginning in February followed by conference previews this summer and my weekly picks during next football season. As always, thanks for your readership and Merry Christmas!

Fab Five: Week XIV

It was bound to happen eventually. For the first time in nearly two months the picks were less than accurate as your humble prognosticator endured a 3-6-1 week. Still, the overall mark is a somewhat healthy 66-60-4. We'll try to conclude the season on a high note. Home teams in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4

Overall: 33-31-1

Wisconsin +3 Nebraska @ Indianapolis
Let this game serve as a Exhibit A for what can happen when you expand your conference and separate into divisions (and have two teams ineligible for the postseason). Wisconsin could sneak into the Rose Bowl with five losses if they happen to upset the Cornhuskers in this, the second-annual Big 10 Championship Game. Wisconsin won the first edition last season against Michigan State, and with Ohio State and Penn State both ineligible this season, were prohibitive favorites to return. The Badgers have returned, but with five regular season losses (tied for the most in the Bret Bielema era). While the losses have mounted in 2012, they have all been close. The Badgers have lost four games by exactly three points (including their first meeting with Nebraska in Lincoln) and another by seven in overtime. Despite the disparity in records, these teams seem about even. Don't be surprised if the Badgers leave Indianapolis with Roses in their mouths Saturday night.

South Florida +6.5 Pittsburgh
Last week, Pitt took a giant step toward bowl eligibility by pounding the current Big East front-runner, and by the time this game is played, potential Big East champion Rutgers by three touchdowns. Meanwhile, South Florida lost for the eighth time in their last nine games by 17 at Cincinnati. Easy play here right? Pitt in a snoozer. Before you double down on Pitt though, consider the Panthers have won just one road game all season (at Buffalo) and lost their last game as a road favorite three weeks ago versus Connecticut. The Panthers were in perfect position to take on Rutgers, coming off a bye. In addition, South Florida has been decent at home this season, posting a 2-3 record and covering in their lone game as a home underdog (versus Florida State). Pitt may well get their elusive sixth win here, but I think this game will be close.

Connecticut +5.5 Cincinnati
After their shocking win last week versus Louisville, the Connecticut Huskies seek to win their third straight game and get to bowl eligibility. Standing in their way is a Cincinnati team still technically alive for the Big East title. The Bearcats have just two league losses, and a win in Storrs coupled with a Louisville win over Rutgers would put them in a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse. The BCS bid would go to the highest ranked team in the BCS, so the Bearcats are out of luck there. Still, it would mark the second-consecutive shared title for the Bearcats (many may forget they finished tied with West Virginia and Louisville last season). Cincinnati is just 5-8-1 Against the Spread (ATS) on the road under head coach Butch Jones while the Connecticut Huskies are 3-0-1 ATS as a home underdog under head coach Paul Pasqualoni. Look for the Huskies to keep this one close as they fight to attain bowl eligibility.

Middle Tennessee State +10 Arkansas State
On this Championship Saturday, its fitting that this Sun Belt game is the de facto league championship. Both Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State enter this game sporting identical 6-1 league records. Middle Tennessee has won four straight overall and five straight in the league, while Arkansas State has rattled off six straight wins since losing their league-opener to Western Kentucky. The Blue Raiders from Middle Tennessee are looking for their first league crown since sharing the title with Troy in 2006. Arkansas State is looking to repeat as champions after finishing 8-0 to claim the title outright last season. Middle Tennessee State has been extremely solid on the road, going 5-1 (ATS), including 2-1 as an underdog, with the two covers resulting in straight up wins over Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky. Arkansas State has been less than stellar as a double-digit favorite, failing to cover in that role in both their games (versus Memphis and South Alabama) this season. Arkansas State should get their second consecutive league title, but Middle Tennessee will make them work for it.

South Alabama +6 Hawaii
I can't think of a better way to end your first season as a IA program than in Honolulu. That is just what the Jaguars from South Alabama get to do on Saturday night, and they may also be able to leave the islands with a win. Last week notwithstanding, when they rolled up 48 points on UNLV, the Warriors have been punchless in Norm Chow's first season as coach. Prior to that outburst, the Warriors had been averaging 17 points per game against their fellow Mountain West conference foes. In addition, they were also pretty bad ATS, failing to cover in any of their three previous home games. South Alabama has been solid as a road underdog this season, covering four times in six games. Look for that trend to continue here as they hang with Hawaii and potentially leave with third win of the season.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-2-1

Overall: 33-29-3

Northern Illinois -6 Kent State @ Detroit
For the first time since 2003, and only the second time in the game's history, both MAC Championship Game participants enter ranked in the AP Poll. In fact, if things fall into place, the winner of this game could crash the BCS party (especially if that winner is Kent State). While the Golden Flashes are a great story, Northern Illinois appears to be the real class of the MAC. In MAC-play, the Huskies won all their games by at least seven points, covered the spread in seven of eight games, and posted the league's most explosive offense. Kent State was impressive as well, winning all but one of their eight games by seven points or more. However, the Golden Flashes played in the weaker of the two divisions and are playing in their first postseason game since 1972. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is playing in their third straight MAC Championship Game and likely remembers the result from two seasons ago when they arrived as prohibitive favorites against a plucky upstart. Northern Illinois should win this game by double-digits.

Tulsa -2 Central Florida
Like the Pac-12, Conference USA rewards its strongest team by giving them homefield advantage in the conference title game. In the seven seasons that Conference USA has staged a title game, the favorite has covered four times, and the home team has covered four times. Those are hardly dominant trends. However, these teams played on the field just two weeks ago, with the result being a two-point win by the Golden Hurricane. Last week, in a rather meaningless game for Tulsa, they committed three turnovers and lost by eight to an SMU team fighting for their postseason lives. Meanwhile, Central Florida knew (after East Carolina's win on Friday) that they had to win to qualify for this game. They beat UAB by 25. With proper motivation, Tulsa is the better team. Plus they are playing at home, and need only win by a field goal to cover here.


Oklahoma State -4.5 Baylor
Give Baylor their due, as they have qualified for a third consecutive bowl game under Art Briles. That is quite an accomplishment for a team that went 16 years between bowl bids. Also give the Bears credit for knocking off an unbeaten Kansas State team at home two weeks ago, in one of the more memorable upsets of recent vintage. The Bears also won last week to get to that elusive six-win plateau. However, Texas Tech has been trending downward since bludgeoning West Virginia in mid-October. Since that game, the Red Raiders have lost four of six, with both wins coming in overtime, and have allowed a ghastly 492 yards per game. Oklahoma State has proven they remain a force to be reckoned with under Mike Gundy, even in a rebuilding year. The Cowboys have won seven games and are 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oklahoma State should do enough to beat the Bears by at least a touchdown here.

West Virginia -20 Kansas
What mid-western team is about to lose their 21st straight conference game? That's right, the Kansas Jayhawks. While I don't trust West Virginia to play any semblance of defense here, I also don't believe Kansas will come close to stopping Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and the rest of the West Virginia offense. Kansas has covered once all season on the road, and that came against a Texas Tech team that has imploded (though not as bad as last season) down the stretch. West Virginia may give up 30 here, but I have a hard time seeing them not coming close to 60 themselves.

Alabama -7 Georgia @ Atlanta
I have a hard time understanding the love Georgia has been getting of late. Since being waxed by South Carolina, the Bulldogs have won six straight, including an impressive win over Florida. However, of their six wins in that stretch, two came against SEC teams that failed to win a game in the conference (Kentucky and Auburn), one came against a IAA team (Georgia Southern), another came against a 6-6 SEC team (Ole Miss) , and the last one came against a 6-6 ACC team (Georgia Tech). On the other side, Alabama has faced a pair of tune-ups in preparation for this game, beating Western Carolina and Auburn by identical 49-0 scores since being upset by Texas A&M.. Alabama strikes me as the much better team, having allowed just ten offensive touchdowns in their eight SEC games. Georgia has a dynamic offense, but they will find the sledding rough against Alabama's elite defense. Plus Georgia's defense is a little suspect, allowing both Tennessee and South Carolina to crack the 30-point barrier against them. Look for the Crimson Tide to win by double-digits here.

Fab Five: Week XIII

During the first ten weeks of the college football season, your humble prognosticator did not push a single game. In the past two weeks, we have pushed thrice. How about that? Week 12 was another successful week, as I managed a 5-4-1 mark, bringing the yearly tally to 63-54-3. That also means we have now gone seven consecutive weeks with at least a .500 mark. I guess what that means is, the bottom is due to fall out at any time. Proceed with caution. Home teams in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 32-27-1

Ohio +10 Kent State
This season has gotten away from Ohio. The Bobcats began the season 7-0, included among the seven wins was a victory over Penn State. In fact, the Bobcats rose as high as number 23 in the AP Poll in late-October. However, the Bobcats have now lost three of four and have already failed in their endeavor to return to the MAC Championship Game for the second-consecutive year and third time in the past four seasons. That first conference title since 1968 will have to wait for another year. Meanwhile, Kent State has surged under second-year head coach Darrell Hazell. The Golden Flashes have won nine consecutive games and have qualified for their first ever MAC Championship Game. Since beginning the 2011 season 1-6, the Flashes have won 14 of their past 16 games, including 11 of 12 within the conference. Still, there are reasons to like Ohio to cover the big number in this game. The Bobcats are 4-1 Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit road underdog since 2008, while Kent State is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit home favorite under Hazell. There is also the look-ahead factor as Kent State has already earned a spot in the MAC Championship Game and may not be fully motivated. Look for Ohio to keep this one within a touchdown.

Georgia Tech +13.5 Georgia
Its been a weird season for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech began the season 2-4, with a home loss to Middle Tennessee State among the quartet of losses. The Yellow Jackets then pounded a poor Boston College team to improve to 3-4, but were subsequently manhandled the following week at home by BYU, in a game where they scored just one offensive touchdown and had their lowest yardage output (157 yards) since the Orange Bowl loss to Iowa to conclude the 2009 season. Since their home embarrassment to the Cougars, the Jackets have quietly won three straight to get to bowl-eligibility and will actually represent the Coastal Division in the ACC Championship Game thanks to Miami's self-imposed postseason ban. Still, in their six wins, the Jackets have beaten just one bowl-eligible team (Duke). That number doubles if we include the postseason-ineligible Tar Heels, but still that is hardly an impressive number. So why are they the pick here? Under Johnson, the Jackets are 9-5 ATS as a road underdog and 2-1 as a double-digit road underdog. They have also covered in both games under Johnson at Georgia, winning outright as a touchdown underdog in 2008, and losing by eight as a two-touchdown underdog in 2010. Meanwhile, Georgia is just 2-3 ATS as a double-digit home favorite this season and just 7-6 in such a role since 2009. And speaking of quality wins, Georgia has beaten just two bowl-eligible teams themselves (Vanderbilt and Florida), though Ole Miss could join that esteemed list if they beat Mississippi State this week. Georgia Tech should keep this one relatively close.

Texas-San Antonio +1 Texas State
This marks the first meeting of these two Division IA neophytes. Both teams will be moving to new conferences next season as the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners will move to Conference USA and the Texas State Bobcats will move to the Sun Belt. Besides being newcomers to IA football and residing in the Lone Star State, both teams are also coached by men you may have heard of. The Roadrunners are led by former Miami head coach and national champion, Larry Coker. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are coached by noted Mrs. Doubtfire lookalike and former Alabama and Texas A&M coach Dennis Franchione. Both teams have been moderately competitive in their first foray into IA football. Texas State owns two wins over fellow IA programs, including a monumental upset in their first game against Houston. Texas-San Antonio has won thrice against IA teams, beating South Alabama, New Mexico State, and Idaho. In fact, in WAC play, the Roadrunners have gained more yards and allowed fewer yards than Texas State. They are also playing at home, so this spread should probably be about a field goal in the other direction. The Roadrunners should conclude their inaugural IA season with their eighth overall win.

Rutgers +2 Pittsburgh
The Scarlet Knights continue their quixotic quest towards their first conference championship and BCS-bowl bid. Last week they upset Cincinnati on the road to improve to 5-0 in the conference. Win or lose here, their game next week at home against Louisville will likely determine the Big East champion. Rutgers boasts the best defense in the Big East and has allowed just four offensive touchdowns in their five conference games. The Knights also boast a solid track record on the road this season, winning in all three games as a road underdog (South Florida, Arkansas, and Cincinnati). The Pitt Panthers need wins in their final two games (versus Rutgers and next week at South Florida) to salvage a bowl game in Paul Chryst's first season as head coach. I don't think they will be able to come through against a stout Rutgers defense this weekend. Fortunately for Pitt, Chryst is likely to stick around and coach next season, marking the first time since 2010 they have had the same head coach for two consecutive seasons.

Indiana +6 Purdue
On the surface, this game may not appear to have any far-reaching significance. However, it could be quite significant for the employment opportunities of Danny Hope, head coach at Purdue. Hope has guided the Boilermakers for four seasons and has posted just a 21-27 mark, including a 5-6 record this season. His lone bowl appearance came last year on the heels of a 6-6 regular season campaign. This game is also pretty significant for Indiana football. This game is not only for the Old Oaken Bucket, a trophy Indiana has won just twice in the past ten years, but it would also give the Hoosiers three conference wins for the first time since 2007, and just the third time in the past decade. The Hoosiers have been rather feisty in head coach Kevin Wilson's second season, posting a 4-3 ATS record as an underdog and a 3-2 ATS record on the road. Meanwhile, Purdue has hardly been a lock as a home favorite under Danny Hope, posting just a 4-8 ATS mark in such a role. In addition, the Boilermakers are just 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Look for Indiana to keep this one close and potentially keep their in-state rivals out of the postseason.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-2-1

Overall: 31-27-2

Syracuse -8 Temple
Last week the Orange went on the road and won against an SEC opponent (Missouri) as a four-point underdog. The win got the Orange to the magical six-win threshold for the second time in three seasons and also represented their first win against an SEC opponent since September of 2001 when they beat Auburn at the Carrier Dome. Now the Orange will try to get to seven regular season wins against a Temple team also off an outright upset. The Owls were a slight two-point underdog last week against Army, but managed to roll up a season high 565 yards and 63 points against a very porous Army defense. The Black Knights rank 123rd out of 124 teams in yards per play allowed, permitting a nearly inconceivable 6.91 per snap. In their five previous games, during which they went 1-4, the Owls averaged 285 yards and 14.2 points per game, much more indicative of their actual skill level. In Big East play, Temple ranks dead last in both yards gained and yards allowed. Syracuse has a very potent offense, ranking second only to Louisville in the Big East, and a respectable defense. The Orange should win this one by about two touchdowns.

Arizona -3 Arizona State
This year's battle for the Territorial Cup involves a pair of teams enjoying moderate success under first-year head coaches. The Arizona Wildcats already have seven wins, and with a victory against their in-state rivals followed by another in their bowl game, would own nine wins for the first time since winning 12 in 1998. Mike Stoops never won more than eight in his eight seasons in Tucson. Arizona State is also bowl-eligible under Todd Graham, meaning both Arizona schools will head to the postseason for the first time since 1997! Arizona State has struggled on the road, winning only against the dregs of the conference (Cal and Colorado), while losing by double-digits to both Oregon State and Southern Cal. Meanwhile, Arizona is 6-1 at home, with their lone loss coming at the hands of Oregon State. The Wildcats have issues on defense, but should be able to move the ball well enough to win by about a touchdown.

Miami -6 Duke
With the recent announcement that they will be forgoing a bowl for the second-consecutive season, this trip to Durham marks Miami's final game of the 2012 season. The Hurricanes have fared better than most thought in the preseason. With a win against the Blue Devils, the Hurricanes would technically be your 2012 Coastal Division champions. Unfortunately, the self-imposed postseason ban means the Hurricanes have already ceded their slot in the ACC Championship Game to Georgia Tech. Miami will try to finish the season on a solid note against a Duke team, that while bowl-eligible for the first time since Ini Kamoze was nationally relevant, is actually pretty horrible on defense. Miami is 4-0 ATS since 2010 as a single-digit road favorite and under Golden, the Hurricanes are a solid 6-2-1 ATS in all road games. Look for that trend to continue here as Miami easily tops 30 points, becoming the sixth straight team to score at least 30 against the Devils, and wins comfortably here.

Louisville -12.5 Connecticut
Is it time to jump off the Louisville bandwagon? After beginning the year 9-0, the Cardinals fell in relatively grisly fashion to Syracuse, and have now had a week to dwell on their first loss. The Cardinals remain in the top-20 of the latest poll, in fact they are the highest ranked team in the Big East. However, they are a virtual afterthought nationally. Still, with the Big East's automatic BCS bowl bid still well within their sights, motivation, or lack thereof should not be a problem in this game. Their opponent in this game, the Connecticut Huskies enter needing a win and a win next week against Cincinnati to return to the postseason for the first time under second-year head coach Paul Pasqualoni. The Huskies are also off a bye, having won two weeks ago against a Pitt team still obviously hung over after their close loss to Notre Dame. The Huskies have proven to have a solid defense, but they have real issues moving the ball, which could be a problem against a strong Louisville offense. It should also be noted that the Cardinals are 3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under head coach Charlie Strong. Conversely, the Huskies are 0-7-1 as a road underdog under Pasqualoni. Look for both those trends to continue here in a blowout Louisville win.

Ball State -7 Miami
Ball State head coach Pete Lembo has won wherever he has coached. Be it Lehigh, Elon, or Ball State, the man gets the job done. In 12 seasons as a head coach, his teams have posted just one losing season (his first at Elon in 2006). Lembo took over a Ball State team that had gone 6-18 in the two seasons prior to his arrival, matched that win total in his first year (6-6) and has the Cardinals standing at 8-3, riding a five-game winning streak. Lembo has done very well ATS in nearly all roles as head coach at Ball State. His teams are 2-1 ATS as road favorites, 9-3 ATS overall on the road, 6-1 ATS on the road in MAC play, and 10-5 ATS overall in the MAC. Ball State has an explosive offense and should be able to win this game by double-digits and get to nine regular season wins.