First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Group of Five

After a bit of a hiatus, we return to our review of the 2024 college football season.This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2024 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the AAC Championship Game with the top team winning in somewhat dominant fashion. At the other end of the AAC, Tulsa was dead last by a significant margin. Their 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Temple).

Conference USA

The 2024 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD also met in the Conference USA Championship Game. While the top two teams were close in 1HPD, their matchup in the title game was not. Western Kentucky opened the scoring with a field goal, but Jacksonville State outscored the Hilltoppers 52-9 the rest of the way. 

Mid-American

The 2024 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the MAC Championship Game (sensing a theme here?). Much like Conference USA, while the top two teams were close in 1HPD, the title game was not. Miami kicked a field goal to go up 3-0, but Ohio scored the final 38 points of the game to win their first ever MAC Championship Game and first MAC title since 1968. At the bottom of the MAC standings, Kent State's 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Eastern Michigan). 

Mountain West

The 2024 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

Like the previous three Group of Five conferences, the top two teams in 1HPD met in the Mountain West Championship Game. And once again, despite the relative tightness of the top two teams in 1HPD, the title game was not especially close. 

Sun Belt

The 2024 Sun Belt standings. 

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

The Sun Belt was the streak breaker in 2024. The top two teams did not meet in the Sun Belt Championship Game. However, the teams ranked second and third in 1HPD did face off in the title game. Like the other Group of Five title games, this one was also a dud, at least from a competitive standpoint. I suppose if you were a Marshall fan, you were not overly concerned about the competitiveness. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Tulsa technically overachieved since a team with their 1HPD (trailed on average by 23 points per game at the half) usually finishes winless in conference play. In Tulsa's lone league win, they overcame a 28-point halftime deficit against UTSA. Boise State never trailed at the half in Mountain West play, but they were tied in three games, and held a lead of less than a touchdown in another. Colorado State rode an easy conference schedule to a 6-1 record and nearly qualified for the Mountain West Championship Game. However, the Rams trailed at the half in two of their seven conference games and were tied in another. Louisiana-Lafayette only trailed at the half in one of their Sun Belt games, but they were down by three touchdowns which significantly suppressed their overall numbers. Finally, East Carolina finished with a winning record in AAC play despite trailing at the half in four of their eight conference games, including three times by double digits. 

And now the underachievers. 

Tom Herman lost his job at Florida Atlantic because the Owls could not close the deal. They won just a single game in AAC play despite leading at the half in four games and trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime just once. Nevada was not a good team in 2024, but their profile did not befit a team that finished winless in conference play. The Wolfpack were tied or leading at the half in three of their seven conference games. UTSA finished with a .500 record in AAC play despite leading at the half in five of their eight conference games. Their under-performance is mostly explained by their shocking loss to Tulsa I mentioned above. Four seasons after winning the MAC in the Covid-impacted 2020 season, Mike Neu lost his job at his alma mater thanks to the Cardinals struggles in the second half. Ball State led at the half in three of their five conference games and trailed by double digits in just one. Finally, Georgia State only led at the half in one of the conference games, but they were tied in two others and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. The Panthers probably should have won at least one additional conference game in Dell McGee's first season in Atlanta. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Four.