Here are the 2024 Sun Belt standings.
So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Sun Belt team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.
College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2024 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.
A quartet of teams in the Sun Belt saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on Yards per Play. The trio of Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, and Marshall significantly exceeded their expected record while Georgia State underachieved. Arkansas State (4-1), Georgia Southern (2-1), and Marshall (3-1) all performed well in close conference games. All three were also on the positive side of fourth down variance. Arkansas State converted twelve of their fifteen fourth down attempts in league play. Georgia Southern (six of nine) and Marshall (six of ten) were good, but not quite as charmed as the Red Wolves on their fourth down conversions. Georgia Southern also stopped eight of their opponents' eleven fourth down attempts in Sun Belt play, generating an additional eight hidden turnovers. Meanwhile, Georgia State finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, had a negative in-conference turnover margin (-3), and converted just five of their eighteen fourth down attempts in Sun Belt action. Those fourth down failures represent thirteen hidden turnovers not accounted for in their already poor turnover margin.
Dominated By Conference Opponents Part Deux
In last week's post on the SEC, we examined Mississippi State's horrendous conference season in 2024. The Bulldogs dropped all of their SEC games with each loss coming by double digits. I mentioned the Bulldogs were not the only FBS team to go winless in conference play in 2024 with each of their losses coming by double digits. Another team in the same state, Southern Miss, also managed that ignominious feat. The Golden Eagles were even worse relative to their competition than the Bulldogs. Southern Miss lost their eight Sun Belt games by more than 25 points per game. They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in their conference opener by ten points and that represented their high water mark in league play. Southern Miss became the tenth non-power (non-BCS/Group of Five) team to finish winless in conference play with all of their losses coming by double digits in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998). The other nine teams are listed below along with their performance in the follow up season.
The nine non-power teams improved more in the aggregate than their power conference brethren we examined last week (.257 conference winning percentage in the follow up season compared to .200 for power conference teams). This makes sense. Power conferences tend to have more strict tiers of power, while non-powers are more fluid in their hierarchy.
You may have noticed a few asterisks in the previous table. That was intentional. Unlike Mississippi State, who retained their coach despite their poor conference performance, Southern Miss will have a new head coach in 2025. Will Hall was fired midway through the 2024 season after a 1-6 start. Reed Stringer was the interim coach and I suppose received a nice paycheck for his 'performance'. The Golden Eagles pulled off a coup by getting Charles Huff (not to be confused with Charlie Hough) from conference rival Marshall to be their new coach. Huff has been moderately successful in his four seasons as a head coach, even guiding the Thundering Herd to the Sun Belt title last season. The good news for Huff is that the previous teams to swap out coaches after a crash and burn conference season all improved by multiple games in the following season.
It might be the equivalent of a dead cat bounce, but I expect at least modest improvement in Hattiesburg in 2025. The Golden Eagles may not qualify for a bowl, but I expect two or three Sun Belt wins after their harrowing conference performance last season.
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