Bowl Appetit

Holiday Bowl
Texas -2.5 Arizona State

The first bowl game of the year to feature two BCS-conference teams may also be one of the best. Arizona State finished as the Pac-10's co-champions in Dennis Erickson's first season. The Sun Devils parlayed 8 home games, an efficient passing offense, some good luck, and a great kicker into a 10-win regular season. The Longhorns finished 9-3, but all three of those losses came in Big 12 play, including two to teams most unbiased football observers and Texas fans would say they shouldn't have lost--Kansas State and Texas A&M. The A&M loss was their second in a row to the Aggies. The Horns also survived some close scrapes with Arkansas State (8 points), Central Florida (3 points), Nebraska (3 points), and Oklahoma State (3 points), so things could have been much worse.

The primary reason for the Sun Devils' success this season was the play of quarterback Rudy Carpenter and the improvement in the pass defense. Carpenter finished the season as the 15th best quarterback in terms of passer efficiency rating. As a team, the Sun Devils averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt (9th in the nation) and threw only 8 interceptions on the season (15th in the nation). The Sun Devils pass defense finished 15th in the nation in opponent quarterback rating (108.20). Opposing quarterbacks completed only 51.9% of their passes (8th in the nation) and the Sun Devils picked off 17 errant throws (21st in the nation).

While Carpenter did have a fantastic season throwing the football, there was a downside to the Sun Devil passing attack. The Sun Devils allowed 50 sacks on the season (117th in the nation--ahead of only Syracuse and Notre Dame). While the Sun Devils' offensive line should bear the brunt of the responsibility, Carpenter also shares some culpability. Fortunately for the Sun Devils, Texas only finished in the middle of the pack in sacking opposing quarterbacks (60th in the nation at two sacks per game). The Longhorns also finished in the middle of the pack in opposing quarterbacks pass rating (72nd--129.47). The Longhorns main strength on defense was shutting down the run. They allowed just 2.99 yards per rush (11th in the nation) and 99 yards per game (10th in the nation).

The strength of this Texas team rests squarely on the offensive side of the ball. Running back Jamaal Charles gained 1458 yards on the ground while averaging 6.31 yards per rush. After a 5-game midseason lull where he never gained more than 79 yards or carried the ball more than 17 times, Charles broke out in the last 4 games. He gained 736 yards while averaging 8.27 yards per rush and scored 8 of his 16 rushing touchdowns. In particular, two of these performances--his 290 yards against Nebraska and his 180 yards against Oklahoma State--allowed the Horns to pull those games out of the fire. His backfield mate, quarterback Colt McCoy had a solid season, but suffered through a bit of a sophomore slump. After completing 68.2% of his throws with 29 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions as a freshman, McCoy's completion rate dipped slightly to 64.9%, but more importantly so did his touchdowns (21) and his interceptions rose dramatically (18).

Colt McCoy may have a rough go of it against the superb Sun Devil pass defense, but expect Jamaal Charles to pick up the offensive slack. Two keys to the game in the all important special teams category:
1) The Longhorn's punt return coverage. Texas finished 99th in the nation allowing 11.75 yards per return. Remember the Kansas State game? Arizona State was 41st in the nation in punt return average (10.15 yards per return).
2) Freshman kicker Thomas Weber of Arizona State made 22 of his 23 field goal attempts.

Despite that advantage in the special teams department, Arizona State's fantastic season will end on a down note. Their inability to keep Carpenter upright will end up being their downfall in a tight game.

The Pick: Texas will cover the 2.5 point spread.

Bowl Appetit

Motor City Bowl
Purdue -7.5 Central Michigan

Nothing says congratulations on a good season like a trip to Detroit on December 26th. For the Boilermakers, this season ended like so many before it. After starting out red hot in non-conference action, Purdue ended Big 10 play with a 3-5 record. Since their co-Big 10 Championship/Rose Bowl season in 2000, the Boilers have only managed a collective 29-27 record in Big 10 play. That would have been cause for celebration before Joe Tiller arrived as Purdue was a collective 13-40-3 in Big 10 play in the 7 seasons immediately preceding his arrival from Wyoming. Still, one may be inclined to believe that the program has stagnated in the last half decade. Can Tiller fire the Boilers up to play a Central Michigan team they have already played and disposed of once, in a low-level bowl game the day after Christmas?

Central Michigan is probably more than content to be playing in their second consecutive Motor City Bowl. The Chips concluded their 10-win season and MAC Championship last year with a thrashing of Middle Tennessee State in this very same bowl game. The Chips won their second consecutive MAC Championship this season, but are not nearly as good as last year's incarnation. They are still very prolific on offense, sporting a poor man's Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour, at quarterback. LeFevour not only threw for 3360 and 23 touchdowns, he also rushed for 1008 yards and 17 scores. As a team the Chips averaged 448 yards of offense (22nd in the nation). They were also one of only 14 teams to average 5 yards or better per rush (5.00) and they were tied for 8th in sacks allowed per game, permitting only 13 in 13 games. Unfortunately, the defense was able to undo a good portion of the offenses' good work. They allowed 450 yards per game (106th in the nation). They were especially susceptible to the pass, surrendering 285 yards per game (111th in the nation) while allowing opponents to compile a quarterback rating of 143.90 (105th in the nation), complete 65.4% of their passes (111th in the nation), and average 7.6 yards per pass (94th in the nation).

And what do you know, if there's one thing Purdue has been able to do under Joe Tiller, its throw the ole pigskin around. The Boilers averaged 287 yards per game through the air (17th in the nation). Their quarterback rating (127.90--56th in the nation) and yards per pass attempt (6.4--86th in the nation) were relatively pedestrian. However, against non-BCS teams, those numbers shoot up to 320 yards per game, 163.78 quarterback rating, and 7.8 yards per pass. Defensively, Purdue is a middle of the road team, allowing 385 yards per game (60th in the nation). They did hold opposing quarterbacks to a cumulative rating of only 112.03 (23rd in the nation), but that number is inflated by their performance against Toledo, Eastern Illinois, and offensively impotent Iowa. LeFevour and the Chips were able to move the ball in the first meeting, as they gained 465 yards and scored 22 points.

In the first game, a Purdue win by the count of 45-22, the Boilermakers turned the ball over 5 times (to the Chippewas' 3). Despite allowing 465 yards, they gained 583 themselves while averaging 7.6 yards per play. It seems the only way this game will be close is if Purdue comes out disinterested. The Chips defense is just too bad to keep this one close, no matter how well their offense performs. Also, be on the lookout for Purdue to consistently start with great field position following a Central Michigan score. the Boilers rank 7th in the nation with an average kickoff return of 25.22 yards. Wide receiver Dorien Bryant has taken two kickoffs to the house, and fellow receiver Desmond Tardy has run one back.

The Pick: Purdue will cover the 7.5 point spread.

Bowl Appetit

Hawaii Bowl
Boise State -11 East Carolina

Boise State returns to the scene of their last loss, a 39-27 defeat at the hands of the Hawaii Warriors, to try and capture the 6th bowl win in school history. Their opponent, East Carolina, is making their second consecutive bowl appearance under third year coach Skip Holtz.

Boise State did not miss a beat on offense despite losing three-year starting quarterback Jared Zabransky. His replacement, Taylor Tharp, threw 28 touchdowns against just 9 interceptions while directing an offense that averaged 475 yards per game (1oth in the nation). Running back Ian Johnson missed two games, but still had over 1000 yards (1030) on the season. His backup, Jeremy Avery added 603 yards on the ground and averaged 6.48 yards per rush. Sophomore receiver Jeremy Childs became the Broncos first 1000-yard receiver since Tim Killigan in 2003. The Broncos scored at least 30 points in 9 of their 12 games, and only one of their wins were by fewer than 10 points (a 69-67 OT thriller against Nevada).

The Broncos were pretty good on the other side of the ball too. They had 33 sacks (26th in the country), held opponents to a cumulative quarterback rating of 112.34 (24th in the country), and were 21st in the nation in total defense (326 yards per game). These numbers, both offensively and defensively, are inflated by the fact that the Broncos play in the WAC, but the Broncos are still a darn good football team.

East Carolina played a significantly tougher schedule than the Broncos and managed only a 7-5 record. Three of their losses were to BCS conference teams (NC State, West Virginia, and Virginia Tech). Two of those teams are currently ranked in the top 11. East Carolina did manage to beat two bowl teams, Houston and UCF, the latter of which ended up winning Conference USA. East Carolina was significantly outgained on the season (702 yards over 12 games or 58 yards per game), but they scored more points than they allowed (and won more than they lost) thanks to a turnover margin of +14 (6th in the nation). They turned the ball over only 13 times all season (3rd in the nation), while gaining 27 from their opponents (22nd in the nation). The Pirates needed those turnovers because they were already giving up plenty of field position in the return game. They allowed two kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns and finished 112th in the nation in opponent's punt return average and 98th in the country in opponent kickoff return average.

On paper Boise State appears to be the far superior team. However, in the last two postseasons 9 teams have been favored by 10 points or more. Only two of those 9 of those favorites have covered the spread. 6 of the 9 have won straight up. I think that trend will continue. Boise State will win, but East Carolina will cover.

The Pick: East Carolina will cover the 11 point spread.

Bowl Appetit

Papa John's.com Bowl
Cincinnati -11 Southern Miss

This spread is the second largest of the bowl season (behind the 13.5 points Southern Cal is giving Illinois), and so it should be. The Bearcats are 9-3, and all of their losses have come by 7 points or less. Currently sporting a #20 ranking in the AP Poll and a #23 ranking in the Coaches Poll, the Bearcats have a great chance to finish the season ranked for the first time in school history. And with Michigan recently filling their head coaching vacancy, perhaps Brian Kelly will stay awhile in the Queen City and build a team that is consistently ranked and revered. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are only 7-5 with losses to both good (Tennessee, Boise State, and Central Florida) and bad (Rice) teams. The only Division IA team they beat with a winning record was East Carolina. This marks the sixth time in seven seasons that Southern Miss has finished with at least 5 losses. That slippage into mediocrity caused longtime coach Jeff Bower to be forced out/resign at season's end. So can the Golden Eagles, in the last game of the Jeff Bower era, keep this one interesting?

To answer that question, we need to assess what (if anything) Southern Miss does well. For the most part, the Golden Eagles rank where we we would expect a 7-5 team to rank; somewhere around average. However, their is one area where they do distinguish themselves. Running the football. Southern Miss ranks 22nd in the country in rush yards per game (200 yards). They also rank 29th in yards per rush (4.65 per attempt). Led by sophomore running back Damion Fletcher (over 1400 yards on the ground) and senior quarterback Jeremy Young (294 rush yards), the Golden Eagles were very proficient on the ground.

So now that we know what the Golden Eagles did well, what about the Bearcats? What did they excel at? Creating turnovers. The Bearcats created 39 turnovers (23 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries) which ranked 2nd in the country. Their turnover spree consistently put the offense in great field position, and allowed the team to score almost 37 points per game (14th nationally). The Bearcats also excelled at throwing the football. Behind senior quarterback and Wake Forest transfer Ben Mauk, the offense ranked 23rd in passing yards per game, 8th in quarterback rating, 9th in yards per pass, and 29th in completion percentage.

On paper, this game should not be close. The Bearcats won their 5 non-conference games by an average score of 46.4-10.6. Several of those teams were bad (San Diego State was 4-8, Marshall was 3-9, and SE Missouri State is not D-IA), but Oregon State (8-4 record) went bowling and Miami (Ohio) (6-7) was bowl-eligible and won their division in the MAC. Plus two of those games (San Diego State and Miami) were on the road. Southern Miss should not be able to run the ball consistently against the Cincinnati defense, and their passing game leaves a lot to be desired (83rd in quarterback rating and 100th in passing touchdowns). Barring a slew of turnovers or a plethora of injuries, Cincinnati should win rather comfortably.

The Pick: Cincinnati will cover the 11 point spread



New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico -3 Nevada

The New Mexico Lobos are playing at home in the New Mexico Bowl for the second season in a row and in their 5th bowl game in the last 6 seasons. Head coach Rocky Long deserves a great deal of credit for consistently fielding a winner since taking over for Dennis Franchione following the 1997 season. After winning just 12 games in his first three seasons, Long has led the Lobos to at least 6 wins in each of the past seven seasons, though he has yet to guide the Lobos to a postseason win. On the other sideline, head coach Chris Ault has the Wolfpack in a bowl game for the third consecutive season. The Wolfpack won their first bowl game in Ault's second go-round with the team by a single point in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl (49-48 over Central Florida). Last season they lost MPC Computers Bowl by a single point (21-20 to Miami). This game has the potential to be as good as those two.

New Mexico struggled moving the football in 2007. The offense averaged only 357 yards per game (84th in the nation). The running game was the weakest link, as despite having a 1000 yard rusher in Rodney Ferguson (1177 yards), the team averaged only 3.48 yards per rush (93rd in the nation). The passing game was a little better, but not much, ranking 77th in quarterback rating, 66th in yards per pass, and 59th in passing yards per game. The Lobos made their money on defense (to an extent) and in the kicking game. The Lobos ranked 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (126 yards), 27th in yards per rush allowed (3.30), 37th in opponent's quarterback rating (117.10), and 23rd in yards per game (329 yards). In the kicking game, the Lobos held opponents to only 19.45 yards per kickoff return (21st in the nation) and their kicker John Sullivan made 26 of his 29 field goal attempts (6th best percentage in the nation).

For the Wolfpack, its all about offense. Freshmen quarterback Colin Kaepernick is the ideal fit to run Chris Ault's unique Pistol offense. Kaepernick took over full time for injured starter Nick Graziano in the 6th game. For the season, Kaepernick has averaged 9.4 yards per pass (3rd behind Tim Tebow and Paul Smith among qualifying quarterbacks), thrown 19 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions, and has a quarterback rating of 161.06 (5th among qualifying quarterbacks). He also rushed for 567 yards and added 6 touchdowns on the ground. Of course, Kaepernick is not the only threat in the backfield. Fellow tri-syllable surname having Luke Lippincott (the rarest of all breeds, a white running back) gained 1380 yards and averaged 5.37 yards per rush.

On defense it was a different story for the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack defense could not stop the pass. Nevada only held opposing quarterbacks to a quarterback rating of 134.43 (87th in the nation). The primary reason for the high rating was an inability to intercept passes. They grabbed only 6 all season (116th in the nation). Opposing quarterbacks used the pass to move the ball down the field and when they got close to pay dirt, they punched it in on the ground. The Wolfpack allowed 25 rushing touchdowns (94th in the nation). The Wolfpack also did a poor job of covering punts, allowing 10.48 yards per return (84th in the nation).

Nevada returns 8 or 9 starters on offense next season, depending on whom you consider a starter. Their defense should also improve on the lowly 6 interceptions they were able to grab. They should also see some improvement in the luck department as they went only 3-5 in games decided by 8 points or less. They could be poised for a big season and possible WAC title next year. If season-to-season momentum exists, they will have that to because they will conclude this season with an upset win in the New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos' defense will not be able to hold down the Pistol attack.

The Pick: Nevada will cover the 3 point spread.



Las Vegas Bowl
BYU -5.5 UCLA

Forget about Hawaii and their tissue-soft schedule in the Sugar Bowl, the best mid-major team this season (and possibly last season) is the BYU Cougars. Coming off an 11-2 campaign that included an undefeated season in Mountain West conference play and culminated with a 30-point beatdown of Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl, this was expected to be a rebuilding year with all the personnel losses (especially quarterback John Beck who now plys his trade for the Miami Dolphins). After beginning the season 1-2, the Cougars have simply reeled off 9 consecutive victories (6 by 10 points or more) to once again stand 10-2 at the close of the regular season and undefeated in conference play. They face a UCLA team that has limped to the finish line (1-4 last 5 games) and will be without the services (?) of fired head coach Karl Dorrell.

If your memory is anything like mine, you may not remember that these two teams have already tangled once in 2007. In the season's second weekend UCLA defeated BYU 27-17 in Pasadena. However, BYU outgained the Bruins by almost 200 total yards (435-236), but were undone by two lost fumbles and an interception. The Cougars have gone 9-1 since that defeat, while the Bruins have floundered, going only 4-6. BYU ranks 10th in the nation in yards allowed per game (307). They are especially proficient at shutting down the run. Only one team averaged more than 4 yards per rush against them this season (Air Force averaged 4.16 per rush). They were also pretty good against the pass, limiting teams to a cumulative quarterback rating of 111.95 (22nd in the nation). And like most good teams, BYU was not a one-trick pony. On offense, their sophomore quarterback Max Hall, in his first season as a starter, threw twice as many touchdowns (24) as interceptions (12). Their freshman running back Harvey Unga gained 1211 yards while averaging 5.33 yards per rush. Unga also added 41 catches and 629 yards through the air, making him their third leading receiver in both categories. Their top two receivers, sophomores Austin Collie and Dennis Pita, both had over 50 catches and over 700 yards receiving.

Meanwhile, the Bruins suffered through injury and inconsistency on offense throughout their 6-6 season. Juniors Ben Olson, Patrick Cowan, freshman McLeod Bethel-Thompson, and even sophomore wide receiver Osaar Rasshan spent time playing quarterback. The Bruins only managed to complete 48.3% of their passes as a team, good for 116th in the country, and ahead of only Washington, Florida International, and Idaho. Bruin quarterbacks were also sacked 33 times (103rd in the nation). Defensively, the Bruins were pretty strong. They ranked 19th in the nation with 35 sacks, 25th in opponent's quarterback rating (113.58), 17th in yards per pass allowed (6.0), and 19th in yards per rush allowed (3.12). In all likelihood the Bruins defense will keep this one interesting for a time, but they won't be able to score enough to hold off the Cougars.

The Pick: BYU will cover the 6.5 point spread

Bowl Appetit

New Orleans Bowl
Florida Atlantic -2.5 Memphis

The 7th annual New Orleans Bowl features a matchup of two teams that finished with losing records in 2006. Florida Atlantic improved from 5-7 to 7-5 (and Sun Belt champs) to qualify for their first ever bowl game. Memphis meanwhile, also went 7-5, a 5-game improvement from their 2-10 finish in 2006. The Tigers are playing in their 4th bowl game in 5 years. One of those bowl games was the 2003 New Orleans Bowl where they defeated North Texas 27-17.

While Memphis was able to finish 7-5 (including 6-2 in Conference USA play), they were more lucky than good. They were outscored by 22 points on the year (roughly 2 per game) and finished an outstanding 5-2 in games decided by 4 points or less. Those 5 narrow wins were not over good teams either. They beat Marshall (3-9 record) by 3, Rice (3-9) by 3, Tulane (4-8) by 1, Southern Miss (7-5) by 3, and SMU (1-11) by 3. Their other victories were over Jacksonville State (non-Division IA) and UAB (2-10). Those two were by comfortable margins, but the tale of the tape shows the Tigers have won exactly one game over a Division IA team by a comfortable margin.

Of course, that doesn't mean Memphis does not have a few strengths. On the contrary, they are quite proficient offensively. Led by senior quarterback Martin Hankins, the Tigers scored over 29 points per game and finished 23rd nationally in total offense (447 yards per game), 12th in passing yards per game, 33rd in quarterback rating, and 8th in sacks allowed per game. Unfortunately, all the good their offense accomplished was undone by their defense. The Tigers finished 100th in total defense, allowing 440 yards per game. Part of the problem (and I stress only part because there were many) was the pass rush. The Tigers accumulated only 14 sacks in 12 games (109th in the country). All that time in the pocket allowed opposing quarterbacks to get very comfortable. The Tigers were 82nd in the country in opposing quarterback rating and 87th in completion percentage allowed. Tiger opponents completed nearly 62% of their throws! Of course, the run defense was not great either, as they were gouged to the tune of 5.20 yards per rush (113th nationally).

So can Florida Atlantic exploit that porous Tiger defense? Yes. In 2006, the Owls averaged only 15.1 points per game. This season, they averaged 30.1 points per game. The primary reason for the offenses' improved output was quarterback Rusty Smith. As a freshman in 2006, Smith completed 55.7% of his passes, averaged about 6.6 yards per pass while throwing 6 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and compiling a rating of 113.27. Smith has improved in every area in 2007. he completed 57.3% of his passes, averaged 7.5 yards per pass, threw 27 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and compiled a rating of 136.61. The Owls offensive line also did a great job protecting Smith allowing only 12 sacks all season (tied for 8th nationally--with Memphis).

What about the Owl defense? They allowed 33.8 points per game (which is actually about 2 points per game more than Memphis), but they were a bit better in total defense (85th nationally allowing about 417 yards er game). Like Memphis, the Owls struggled getting to the opposing quarterback, accumulating only 12 sacks all season (114th nationally). The Owls were also worse than Memphis at limiting their opponents completion percentage. Opposing quarterbacks completed 64.8% of their passes against the Owl defense (108th nationally). The one thing the Owls did do well on defense, was generate turnovers. They forced 33 turnovers (4th nationally); 19 interceptions and 14 fumbles. Of course the Tigers were no slouch either, forcing 25 (37th nationally); 12 interceptions and 13 fumbles.

With two defenses this bad and two offenses this good, there should be some fireworks in this game. Both these teams are fatally flawed on defense and covering punts (Florida Atlantic finished 78th in the nation at covering punts and Memphis finished 118th), making their defense seem a little worse than it really is. Their saving grace is their offense and their ability/luck in forcing turnovers. Both teams are 7-5 and Florida Atlantic is from the historically weaker conference, but 4 of their 5 losses have come to Oklahoma State (6-6 record), Kentucky (7-5), South Florida (9-3), and Florida (9-3). Memphis meanwhile lost to a pair of Sun Belt teams that Florida Atlantic defeated (Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State).

The Pick: Florida Atlantic will cover the 2.5 point spread.

Bowl Appetit

Poinsettia Bowl
Utah -8 Navy

The bowl season kicks off on Thursday December 20th with the 3rd annual Poinsettia Bowl. Navy is making their second Poinsettia Bowl appearance, having won the inaugural game in 2005 by a 51-30 count over Colorado State. The Midshipmen will undoubtedly come into this game with somewhat heavy hearts as their admiral, and the formerly highest paid federal employee, Paul Johnson has jumped ship to captain the Yellow Jackets. As a favor to my readers, I will now cease with all maritime related puns.

So what can we expect from this game? For starters, one of the nation's best pass defenses will probably not have the opportunity to showcase its abilities. The Utah Utes rank 15th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, 2nd in opposing quarterback rating, 1st in passing touchdowns allowed, 3rd in opponent's completion percentage, 4th in yards per pass attempt, and 13th in sacks per game. Amazingly, the Utes allowed only 7 touchdown passes all season, and 4 came in their win over Louisville. Unfortunately for the Utes, Navy attempted the fewest passes of any team in Division IA this season. Their 122 pass attempts were 72 less than the second least pass-happy team (Air Force) and less than half (246) of the third least pass-happy team (West Virginia). They attempted more than 15 passes once (21 against Duke) and less than 10 passes seven times. Suffice it to say that Utah's biggest strength will probably not have a dramatic impact on the outcome of this game.

What about the Utes run defense; can they shut down one of the nation's best and most unique rushing attacks? Well, the Utes did play a team that runs an option offense at least vaguely similar to Navy's. That team was Air Force, and the results were not great. The Falcons gouged the Utes for 334 yards on the ground (5.30 per rush) in their 20-12 win in early September. The good news for the Utes is that game was early (second game of the year) and the Utes are likely (judging from what they accomplished over their last 10 games) at least marginally improved at stopping the run (though not necessarily the option). The Utes also get almost a month (since the bowl pairings were announced) to prepare for Navy's attack. Contrast this to the 9 days they had to prepare for Air Force after falling to Oregon State in the season opener. Utah will not be able to stop the Navy rush offense, but they should fair better against it than they did against the Air Force option.

All that is well and good, but the difference in this game will be Navy's defense. Their atrocious defense. The Midshipmen allowed 438 yards per game (99th in the nation). Only 4 teams failed to break 400 yards against the Navy defense. Those teams were Northern Illinois (93rd in yards per game), Temple (113th), Army (116th), and Notre Dame (119th aka last). Utah only finished 80th in yards per game (362 per game), but I would be shocked if they didn't top 500 against the Navy defense. Since beginning the season 2-3, and averaging only 304 yards per game, the Utes have gone 6-1, while averaging 404 yards per game. That is partly due to quarterback Brian Johnson's injury in the 2nd quarter of the season opener. He missed the rest of that game, the next two, and part of the next, before returning full time in game number 5.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, has led the Utes to bowl wins in each of his first two season, and the program has collectively won 6 bowl games in a row. Navy's struggles on defense, coupled with the departure of head coach Paul Johnson, and the solid Utah defense will give the Utes lucky number 7.

The Pick: Utah will cover the 8 point spread.

While You Were Sleeping: Pittsburgh Defense

In the first of what I hope becomes a sporadic fixture on this blog, I will examine an aspect of a particular team that may have slipped by you in the tumultuous college football season. Our first stop takes us to Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.

On the final weekend of college football's regular season, the Pitt Panthers did what numerous underdogs had done before them; they vanquished a heavy favorite, on the favorite's homefield no less. The Panthers held an explosive West Virginia offense, one that only a week before had run for over 500 yards and scored 66 points, to a lone touchdown. And lest you think that was an aberration, the Panther defense had been playing quite well for most of the year. Just looking at points allowed, you would very likely disagree. The Panthers allowed 24.3 points per game in 2007. That figure was good for 42nd in the nation. With 119 teams playing Division IA football, that number is not even in the upper third. If you stopped right there, you'd have a hard time believing the Panthers were anything but a mediocre defensive team. But look a little closer. Here are the Panthers' rankings in a few other defensive categories.

The Panthers rank better than 42nd in nearly all the important statistical categories. In terms of yards per game and yards per play, they are outstanding. Of course, part of that is due to the fact that teams ran the ball so much against them (they faced more rushing plays that 80 teams as teams were often nursing leads) and runs on average are shorter than passes, hence the great yards per play number. But that still does not explain why their points allowed falls so far below their other defensive statistics.

This helps explain a lot though. When the Panthers punted or kicked off, their opponents often ended up with great field position. It's hard for a great defense to consistently keep opponents off the board when they are time and again given good field position. Pitt's defense was hardly great, but this is one of the hidden reason why their achievement did not match their performance.

And here's one more reason. For all the things Pitt did well on defense, they did not force turnovers, especially interceptions as they had only 8 on the year. Even a casual observer of football knows that turnovers are a big deal. When an offense turns the ball over, they have no chance to score, and depending on where it occurs, it can lead to a great scoring opportunity for the other team.

So what are Pitt's prospects heading into next season? Can the defense continue it's strong performance and can can the offense improve to lead Pitt to their first bowl bid in Wannstedt's tenure?

First the defense. The Panthers do lose their leading sacker, defensive end Joe Clermond, but they return 6 of their top 10 tacklers, including all 3 starting linebackers. The defensive backfield loses one starting corner and one starting safety. Even if the Panthers suffer some regression in the performance department, their results can hold steady if they can just force some more turnovers. But can they? Turnovers are essentially a random event, and Pitt as had some relative turnover success in Wanny's tenure. They finished tied for 34th nationally with 14 interceptions in his first season (2005) and tied for 38th nationally in turnovers forced last season. What about the other aspect that distorted the perception of the Pitt defense in 2007, special teams? At best Pitt has been mediocre on limiting punt and kickoff returns under Wannstedt. In 2006 they were 62nd in the nation in opposition kickoff return average and 46th in 2005. They were also 57th in opposition punt return average in 2006. But at their worst, they have been atrocious. In 2005 they were dead last (119th) in opposition punt return average. It appears the best Pitt can aspire to in regards to limiting the return game in 2008 is mediocrity. Still, even marginal improvement in limiting the return game and creating more turnovers in 2008 could mean Pitt's defense goes from under the radar to nationally respected.

And what about the Pitt offense? That unit was rather anemic in 2007, scoring only 22.8 per game, while being held to under 20 points in half of their 12 contests. There is hope though. Freshmen running back LeSean McCoy rushed for over 1300 yards and averaged 4.8 yards per rush. Unfortunately, his backfield mate, quarterback and fellow freshmen Pat Bostick did not adjust quite as easily to the college game. He was erratic at best, throwing more touchdowns than interceptions in a game only once. He did complete over 60% of his passes as a freshman, so there is a real chance at improvement in his sophomore season...Especially with all four of his top wide receivers returning. In fact the only player with a reception not returning is tight end (and 3rd leading receiver) Darrell Strong.

As has seemingly been the case throughout Wanny's tenure in the Steel City, Pitt has some very strong indicators for improvement in 2008. The relative youth on both sides of the ball coupled with some luck in the turnover department and some marginal improvement on special teams could have Pitt bowling for the first time in the Wannstedt era.

Housekeeping Notes

Friends, the bowl season is a time for great joy, and at the same time great sadness for me. Contrary to what Stewart Mandel may believe, I think the BCS gave us at least 3 rather intriguing matchups: good vs evil in the Orange Bowl (the Super Mangino Bros are the good guys), Cinderella vs a championship contender in the Sugar Bowl, and a super-sexy Oklahoma/West Virginia showdown in the Fiesta Bowl. And hey, as a true college football fan, I'll also watch most of Fresno State/Georgia Tech. Unfortunately though, bowl season also means there are only 32 games left to be played. After early January, we have to wait almost 8 whole months for a college football game that counts:( Fear not loyal readers, just as in this past offseason, Statistically Speaking will be updated at least once a week with studies that will try to gauge who will surprise and who will disappoint next season. I've got several irons in the fire. Every conference will get the SDPI treatment, not just for points, but also for yards and possibly one other stat. Plus I've been doing some regression analysis during the season that I will get around to posting. Bowl previews will also start popping up here in the next week or so. So get excited.

Over the course of the Fab Five weekly column, I managed to go 71-60-4 against the spread. That's a winning percentage of .542. With the break even gambling mark of .524, you could have made a profit of about 3.5% if you had followed my picks and bet the same for every game. Not bad for 14 weeks of work. I give these numbers, not out of hubris, but as a reference for next season which I hope will be an improvement.

One final note, the Predictomatic contest is over. One player was downright prescient in his BCS conference picks. LSU/Tennessee, BC/VT, Mizzou/Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, and Southern Cal all won their respective conferences/divisions. His last place picks were not quite as perfect, but he also selected Hawaii to play in the BCS, so he cannot be caught, not matter which team wins the national championship. So, Edward Baker, please send me an email from the same address that you used to send your predictions. I will cut you a check for the vast sum of $12.43 (the ad-click revenue over the course of the college football season). Congrats and enjoy.

In Case You Missed It: Season Finale

...Congrats FIU. The Golden Panthers ended their 23-game losing streak by knocking off North Texas 38-19. FIU has steadily improved as the season has progressed. After averaging 8.5 points per game, 234 yards per game, and 3.7 yards per play in their first 8 games, the Golden Panthers averaged 28.3 points per game, 340 yards per game, and 5.1 yards per play. 'Of such inconsequential beginning dynasties are begun.'


...Not to be outdone by their Sun Belt instate brethren, the FAU Owls upset Troy on Saturday to win the Sun Belt title and gain a berth in the New Orleans Bowl. Unfortunately, for the Sun Belt, the Troy Trojans get left out of the bowl picture despite finishing 8-4 with their other losses coming on the road to Arkansas, Florida, and Georgia. Oh and don't forget their 18-point thrashing of Oklahoma State.

...Hawaii's comeback win was huge on Saturday night. For the conference, for Colt Brennan's Heisman hopes, and especially for the school. This bowl appearance will do wonders for recruiting and the $$ from Sugar Bowl will go a long way toward ensuring Hawaii's continued ability to field a football team. Those flights ain't cheap.


...In other mid-major news, Bronco Mendenhall has started a mini-dynasty in Provo, Utah. The BYU Cougars have won 16 straight Mountain West conference games, including 12 by double digits.


...In other, I suppose bigger news, the BCS got it right. I guess. As one of only two major conference one-loss teams, Ohio State has certainly earned a spot, despite the dearth of quality wins. LSU on the other hand, does appear to be the best two-loss team. However, every team with an argument has their fair share of flaws and ugly marks on their resume. Ohio State has by far the best loss (Missouri has the best losses), but they lack the quality wins LSU has. Georgia has several good wins, but when you lose by 21 to a decent Tennessee team and at home to a 6-6 South Carolina team, you have no room to bitch Mark Richt. Oklahoma may well be the best team, but falling in half of the road games they played to teams that range from pretty good (Texas Tech) to average at best (Colorado) should keep them out. As mentioned earlier, Missouri has the best set of losses, but unfortunately it came to the same team, so we pretty much know without a doubt they are not as good as Oklahoma. Virginia Tech? Please. Where's the beef? Their best wins are Clemson and BC. Good, but not great teams. Then there's the matter of that drubbing at the hands of LSU. No champion should get thrashed by 41 points. Yet if their hands team hadn't failed them in the first BC game, they'd have a chance to beat Ohio State for the title deserved or not. Southern Cal? Stanford. And let's not forget they may not even be the best team in the conference had Dennis Dixon stayed healthy at Oregon. As for Kansas? Well, I love the Mangenius, but their schedule does not have anywhere near the bulk to get them in the title game barring an undefeated season.

...One more note on the BCS. Actually two. Missouri got screwed. They beat two BCS bowl teams (Illinois and Kansas) and lost their only games to BCS bowl participants (Oklahoma). I do have a problem with them being left out at the expense of Kansas. As for Hawaii, they probably don't deserve their BCS bid considering the schedule. But I remember a certain independent playing in 3 undeserved BCS bowls this decade (and getting routed in everyone to my delight). If the hallowed teams garner rediculous BCS bids, I have no problem with the little guys using the system to their advantage.


...Finally I'll end with a commentary on Les Miles. Good coach? Sure. Great coach? Ummm excuse me? By my estimation, he has had the most talent in the SEC 3 years running, yet has somehow managed to lose 2 games every year and finally won his first conference title on Saturday. It's probably best Michigan didn't get this guy, especially if they end up with Brian Kelly. For my final note on Miles, I leave you this video.

To Bowl or Not to Bowl?

To bowl or not to bowl, that is the question;
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The indignity of a losing season,
Or perchance a victory many miles away?
And thus delivering 7 wins to thee.

My humblest apologies to William 'Bill' Shakespeare.

As a resident of Columbia, South Carolina, I have had the opportunity to witness the weeping and gnashing of teeth that has accompanied the Gamecocks' 5-game skid to end their once-promising season. A bowl bid that once seemed certain, now has only a snowball's chance of coming to fruition. Around talk radio and the water cooler, the sentiment is that the Gamecocks need a bowl bid in order to improve heading into next season. Conventional wisdom says that the extra practices and extra game will give the Gamecocks a better chance at improving in the 2008 season. Being the inquisitive type, I wanted to find out if this is indeed true. I looked at every BCS conference team that finished the regular season with either 5 or 6 wins from 2000-2005. I divided those teams into two categories: 6-win teams that went bowling, and 5/6-win teams that stayed home. I think its safe to assume that BCS teams that finish with either 5 or 6 wins are pretty even (not outstanding and not terrible), whether or not they go bowling. The two tables below compare how those teams fared the following season.


As you can see, both sets of teams improved marginally the following season. The teams that participated in bowl games had a better overall record. However, the difference in winning percentage equates to less than half a win over the course of an 11 or 12-game regular season. In terms of improvement, the non-bowl teams fared better. Their winning percentage improved by .065 and the bowl teams' winning percentage improved by .024. Still, as before, the difference over the course of an 11 or 12-game season is less than half a win.

After compiling those numbers, I decided to further test the notion that bowl games aid improvement by running two sets of regression analysis. Both sets included the same sample of 5 and 6 win regular season BCS teams from 2000-2005. They were coded either as '0' if they didn't play in a bowl game and '1' if they did. I ran the regression to see how well playing in a bowl correlated with 1) the next season's winning percentage and 2) whether they played in a bowl game the next year.

Both those R squared values are about as close to zero as you can get. Bowl game participation, in and of itself, has basically no correlation with success the following year. The 6-year window I observed has examples of 6-win bowl teams that improved substantially (Southern Cal from 2001 to 2002), 6-win bowl teams that imploded (West Virginia from 2000 to 2001), 6-win non-bowl teams that improved substantially (Syracuse 2000 to 2001), 6-win non-bowl teams that imploded (Washington 2003) and everything in between. So Gamecock fans, don't worry about a possible bowl snub. While the pageantry and trip may make memories for players, fans, and coaches, the effect it has on the next season's success or failure is negligible at best. Gamecock fans can take heart in the case of the Kansas Jayhawks, a team not included in this study because their 6-6 bowl-less season occurred in 2006. The Jayhawks you may have heard, are currently sitting at 11-1 and closing in on a BCS bowl bid.

All the world 's a stage, and all the men and women merely players. They have their exits and their entrances; And one man in his time plays many parts.

Fab Five: Week XIV

Last week was another winning week as I went 6-4 bringing my yearly record to 69-57-4. This is college football's final regular season weekend, with a somewhat truncated schedule, so we're gonna do things a little differently. There are 5 conference championship games going on this weekend, and since this is the Fab Five, I'm gonna try my best to give you 5 winners against the spread.

MAC Championship from Detroit, Michigan
Central Michigan -3 Miami (Ohio)

This year's MAC Championship Game is eerily similar to last years' version. Last season, the Central Michigan Chippewas and their dynamic offense, led by quarterback Dan LeFevour, represented the MAC West. They took on a surprise representative from the MAC East, the Ohio Bobcats. One season after finishing 4-7, the Bobcats improved substantially on defense (30.5 points allowed per game in 2005 to 18.1 points allowed per game in 2006) and entered the MAC Championship Game as a 3 point dog to Central Michigan. This season, Central Michigan still has an outstanding offense (they average 33.7 points per game, up from 29.7 in 2006); however, their defense has regressed. The Chips give up 38 points per game after yielding only 22.3 per game last season. Their opponent, much like last season is somewhat of a surprise participant. One year removed from a 2-10 debacle, the Miami Redhawks have managed to cobble together a 6-6 record. The Redhawks have the best scoring defense in the MAC (allowing 24.8 points per game, down only slightly from the 25.3 they allowed last season). The Redhawk offense has not improved substantially from last season either (18.5 points per game in 2006 and 20.0 this season). The reason for the dramatic shift in their record? In 2006 the Redhawks were 2-5 in close (8 points or less) games. This season they are 5-2 in such contests. The Redhawks were not as bad as their 2-10 record last season, and they are not quite as good as their 6-6 record this season. They have a chance to knock off Central Michigan and take the MAC crown, but Central Michigan's one weakness--a porous defense, is not apt to be exploited by Miami's less than stellar offense. And while the Redhawks sport the MAC's best defensive unit, it is a far cry from the BCS units the Chips have already seen when they took on Kansas and Clemson. Like last year's title game, this one should be close for a while, but will get away from the Redhawks in the second half. The final score may not be as lopsided as last year's 31-10 Chip win over Ohio, but it will definitely be by more than 3.
The Pick: Central Michigan

The return of the MAC.

Conference USA Championship from Orlando, Florida
Central Florida -7 Tulsa

For the second time in 3 years, George O'Leary has his Golden Knights in the Conference USA Championship Game. And for the second time in 3 years, the Golden Hurricane stand in their way. Make no mistake about it, the 2005 Central Florida team was much more lucky than good (scored just as many points as they allowed over the course of the season), whereas this team is much more good (grammar alert!) than lucky. Of the Golden Knights 9 wins, 8 have come by at least 14 points. One of those 9 wins was over Tulsa (at home, as this game is) by a 44-23 count. Both teams come into this contest very hot. Central has won 6 in a row, while Tulsa has won 5 in a row since falling to Central. At the very least this game should be entertaining. Tulsa, led by senior quarterback Paul Smith and his 39 TD passes plus a host of underclassmen receivers (the top 5 receivers are all juniors or younger) and a pretty good tailback (Tarrion Adams has over 1000 yards on the ground and averages over 5.8 per rush), average 4-7 points per game. Check out the ridiculous numbers for receiver Brennan Marion. He averages almost 36 yards per catch! Unfortunately, Tulsa allows 34.7 points per game to its opponents. The good news for Tulsa is that their struggles on defense stem mostly from an inability to defend the pass (opposing quarterbacks have a composite rating of 139.88 good for 95th in the country). Their run defense is not great, but it is a little better (they allow 4.45 yards per rush which ranks 83rd nationally). Stopping the run against Central is much more imperative than stopping the pass. Central averages 37.9 points per game, but their offense runs through junior running back Kevin Smith. Smith has over 2100 yards and averages 5.76 per rush and has scored 25 touchdowns. Their passing offense is much improved from last season, but it's also likely that senior quarterback Kyle Israel's solid number (over 60% completion rate, 15 TD passes, only 8 interceptions) are due to the presence of Smith. The difference in this game is Central's defense. While not great, it is far superior to the one Tulsa employs. That plus the homefield advantage means Central Florida will win by more than a touchdown.
The Pick: Central Florida

Updating that resume, George?

ACC Championship from Jacksonville, Florida
Virginia Tech -4.5 Boston College

When last these teams met, Boston College prevailed in less than desirable conditions after less than desirable play for the first 56 minutes or so. Two late touchdown drives erased an early 10-0 Virginia Tech lead and the Eagles escaped with their #2 ranking intact. Virginia Tech has not lost since that night, winning 4 ACC games by an average of 21.3 per games, with the smallest margin of victory a 12 point win against Virginia. Boston College meanwhile has lost 2 of 4, but they did win the 'big one' by upsetting the Clemson Tigers n Death Valley. That made up for their shocking loss to Maryland. In their 4 game winning streak, the dynamic VT quarterback duo of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor have played remarkable football. The Virginia Tech passing game has actually been an asset to the team. Still, as is usually the case, turnovers are the real story. In their first 8 games, Virginia Tech was +3 in turnover margin. That's a pretty good margin. In their last 4 games, the Hokies are +10. That's a great margin - Kansas territory. BC on the other hand, has seen their turnover margin head in the other direction. The Eagles were +11 in their first 8 games and are -8 in their last 4. Of course, in the upset at Clemson, they were even in turnover margin. The Eagles seem to me to be a better version of last year's Wake Forest team. They don't play as many tight games, but when they do, their superiority at the quarterback position allows them to make plays late to pull games out. I expect more of the same this week. So after 3 ACC Championship Games, the conference will have sent a 4-loss team (Florida State in 2005) and two teams that don't historically travel well (Wake in 2006 and BC this season) to the BCS. Is that what they anticipated when they added VT and Miami?
The Pick: Boston College

Who had BC as the first of the new 3 to win the title?

SEC Championship from Atlanta, Georgia
LSU -7.5 Tennessee

Earlier in the week, I posted a blog about Tennessee and their Pythagorean shortcomings. Judging from similar teams that played in conference title games, things don't look good for the Vols. The 9 teams that were very similar to Tennessee were 1-8 in their conference title games, losing by an average of 9.6 points per game. Away from home, Tennessee has lost by 14 to a Cal team with 5 losses, by 39 to Florida, beaten Mississippi State by 12 (the Bulldogs are 7-5, but have one of the most impotent offenses in the NCAA), lost by 24 to a 6-loss Alabama team, and beaten a 7-5 Kentucky team by 2. LSU is better than all those teams (with the exception of perhaps Florida) and they will throttle the Vols on Saturday.
The Pick: LSU

Quiet, he's pointing to Ar - Kansas.

Big 12 Championship from San Antonio, Texas
Oklahoma -3 Missouri

In their first meeting, nearly 2 months ago, Oklahoma won by 10 and was up by 17 late in the game. However, that game was in Norman (where the Sooners have not lost since 2005). The Tigers also turned the ball over 4 times (to the Sooners' 2) and one of those turnovers (a fumble) was returned for a touchdown. In fact, the Tigers actually led early in the 4th quarter before a pair of turnovers did them in. This game is at a neutral site, and the Tigers are playing for a spot in the national title game. Oklahoma is extremely vulnerable away from Norman. Excluding their 40+ point win over out manned Tulsa, the Sooners have lost at Colorado, beaten a good, but not great Texas team by 7 in Dallas, won by 10 at a bad Iowa State team, and lost to Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Sooners will not only fail to cover, Missouri will win straight up and punch their ticket to New Orleans.
The Pick: Missouri

The Patented Pinkel collapse not forthcoming.

Long Division

The Tennessee Volunteers have captured the SEC East crown despite being outscored on the year in conference play. This unique achievement inspired me to look for other division champs who were likely not the best team in their division, yet through some combination of schedule and fortune were able to play for a conference championship. Basically what follows is a David Letterman-esque list of the top 10 'worst' division champions from BCS conferences. The word worst in this sense means largest differential in Pythagorean winning percentage (conference games only) between the division winner and the 'best' team (team with highest Pythagorean winning percentage). The tables that follow list the division champion, their conference record, and their Pythagorean conference record with Pythagorean winning percentage in parentheses. The team in the division with the best Pythagorean winning percentage is listed next, and finally the difference in Pythagorean wins and winning percentage is included. Here are the top 10 worst BCS division champions.

The Gators lone conference loss was by a single point to Alabama. However, these were not the typically dominant Gators the Steve Spurrier era. They won only 2 conference games by more than 20 points, with the largest margin of victory 28 points. All 6 of Tennessee's conference wins came by at least 14 points. 4 came by more than 20 points and their 2 losses were by 2 and 4 points.

Nebraska was much more dominant against Big 12 teams than Kansas State. 5 of their 6 conference wins came by at least 18 points. Kansas State had some big wins in conference play as well (3 by 21 or more), but also won 3 squeakers. The beat Missouri by 4, Texas Tech by 5, and Nebraska by a single point to hold the tie-breaker advantage.

Georgia Tech won 4 conference games by 8 points or fewer on their way to a Coastal Division title. They won only one conference game by more than 20 points (a 28-point win over listless Duke) and were blown out in their only conference loss (24 points to Clemson). The Hokies meanwhile won 5 of their 6 conference games by at least 10 points and 3 by more than 20.

Surprise, surprise. Georgia is not the Pythagorean Division champ. Georgia's Pythagorean winning percentage is .664 which is only about 9 one hundredths of a win less than Florida's. Tennessee was actually outscored on the year in conference play! When you lose games by 39 and 24 points, that can happen. Half of the Vols' SEC wins (3) came by a combined 6 points (2 in OT). They did beat Georgia and Arkansas by 21 points apiece, but good teams simply don't lose games by 40 points. Florida's 3 conference losses came by 3, 4, and 12 points. They also won 3 conference games by at least 20 points.

LSU dropped a 3-point decision to Auburn early in the year that ended up being the difference in the SEC West race. 3 of Auburn's 6 wins came by 5 points or less and they did not win a conference game by more than 17 points. LSU won 2 conference games by at least 27 points and 4 by double digits.

The game between these two schools was the beginning of the end of the Frank Solich era. Nebraska came into that game undefeated, having not won a conference game (or any game) by fewer than 10 points. Colorado beat them by 26. However, in their first 7 conference games, the Buffs biggest win in conference play had been by 14 points. Their only loss was also a 34 point drubbing at the hands of Texas. They did exact some measure of revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game by upsetting the Longhorns 39-37 and costing them a shot at the national title.

The 2004 season by the Tennessee Vols and their subsequent expectations for 2005 was the impetus for my first blog post. 6 of the Vols' 7 conference wins were by 6 points or fewer. Their lone comfortable win was by 14 points. They also suffered their lone conference loss by 24 points. Georgia on the other hand lost by 5 to Tennessee and by 18 to eventual SEC champion Auburn, but also won 3 conference games by at least 29 points.

Another appearance by the Tennessee Vols. The 2001 Florida Gators are probably one of the best teams to not play for a national championship and certainly the best team to not win their conference title. Florida won 5 of their 6 conference games by at least 29 points, including a 29-point win at eventual SEC champion LSU. They won 4 conference games by more than 30 and 2 by more than 50. Their 2 losses came by a combined 5 points. Tennessee on the other hand was not nearly as dominant. They won only one conference game by more than 11 points. 4 of their wins were by 8 points or less, including the division-deciding 2-point win over the Gators.

Colorado had a fine season in Big 12 play in 2002 as 5 of their 7 wins were by more than 10 points. The Wildcats from Manhattan simply had a phenomenal season running up the score. All 6 of their conference wins were by at least 34 points. Their two losses came by 4 and 3 points.

Technically, Alabama was both the division champ and the Pythagorean champ, but alas they were on probation.

The 9 teams on this list other than this year's Tennessee Volunteers went a combined 1-8 in their conference championship games. They were outscored on average by a little more than 9 and half points per game. In other words, don't expect a Tennessee upset victory on Saturday. And one final note, just so no one can accuse me of bias. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons' 2006 Atlantic Division title ranks 11th on the list of worst division champions. They had roughly one fewer Pythagorean win (.125 less Pythagorean winning percentage) than the Pythagorean champion Clemson Tigers.

Fab Five: Week XIII

Finally, after 3 consecutive non-wining weeks, I was able to climb out of the small hole and post a 6-4 record. This brings my yearly mark to 63-53-4. Before we dive into the picks this week, I want to take time to celebrate two running backs from schools that rarely get national attention. James Starks, of the Buffalo Bulls, eclipsed 1000 yards in the Bulls' loss to Bowling Green. Starks is Buffalo's first 1000 yard rusher since 1996. Elsewhere, Tulane running back Matt Forte passed the 2000 yard barrier in the Green Wave's win over Rice. Forte is the first back to rush for more than 2000 yards in Division IA since JJ Arrington did it in 2004 for the Cal Bears. Both Forte and Starks have one more game to add to their total. Another Conference USA back, Kevin Smith of Central Florida, will likely go over 2000 yards this weekend, as he needs only 55 yards against East Carolina to get to 2000. Even more importantly, with a win Central Florida will advance to the Conference USA Championship Game and give Smith an extra game to add to his total. With possibly 3 games to go, Smith would need over 227 yards per game to break Barry Sanders' single season record of 2628 yards set in 1988. Finally, Ray Rice has 1612 yards through 11 games. With the finale against Louisville and a bowl game, Rice also has a chance to topple the 2000 yard barrier.

Big Game James

His Forte is pounding the rock.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 27-31-2
Texas A&M +5.5 Texas
On the road against decent teams, Texas owns a pair of 3 point wins--versus Central Florida and Oklahoma State. The Aggies meanwhile, have only lost once at home--to undefeated Kansas by a 19-11 count. The Longhorns will escape with a win and their shot at the Big 12 South in tact, but they will fail to cover the number.

Arkansas +13 LSU
In their last 4 games against winning teams, LSU has not won by more than 7 points. Arkansas is currently 7-4. If Casey Dick avoids throwing a ton of interceptions, the Razorbacks should keep this one close. LSU has won the last two by 2 and 5 points.

UCLA +2 Oregon
UCLA is coming off a bye week, fresh off a a good showing against Arizona State. Oregon on the other hand is coming off a crushing loss to Arizona that ruined their national title hopes and severely dented their BCS hopes. The Brady Leaf Experience V3.0 did not get off to a good start in the game against the Wildcats. True, his skills are not accentuated by the system, but a competent Division I quarterback should be able to hit his receivers in stride occasionally. UCLA will get to bowl eligibility and further dim the Duck's conference title aspirations.

Connecticut +17 West Virginia
Fresh off a win over the second best turnover margin team in the country, the Mountaineers get to host the fifth best turnover margin team in the country. West Virginia was only -1 in turnover margin against Cincinnati, yet only managed a 5 point win. The Mountaineers are a better team and I fully expect them to win, but laying 17 points is simply too much against a quality opponent.

Washington State +6 Washington
The largest margin of victory in the last 5 Apple Cups is 8 points. This one should also be close. Washington State has crushed by Oregon State 52-17 last week, but that was mostly due to their 8 turnovers. Quarterback Alex Brink threw 6 interceptions after throwing only 9 in the first 10 games. Don't expect a similar performance against a Washington team with only 11 interceptions on the season.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 36-22-2
Hawaii -3 Boise State
If Hawaii was going to lose in the regular season, it was last week to Nevada. It didn't happen. The Warriors BCS hopes will be left up to computers and pollsters because they will take care of business against a team that must travel to Hawaii on short rest.

NC State -2 Maryland
The Wolfpack had their 4 game winning streak snapped last week in Winston-Salem and now face Maryland in a game that is a bowl elimination game of sorts. The winner will be bowl eligible, but with the glut of 6 and 7-win teams, is certainly not guaranteed a bowl bid. Maryland has lost 4 of 5 with the lone win a stunning 42-35 defeat of Boston College. The Terps will lose their 7th game of the season and fail to qualify for a bowl game for the 3rd time in 4 years.

Cincinnati -20.5 Syracuse
Seems like you can't make a point spread too high when Syracuse is involved. The Orange have 5 Big East losses and those losses have come by an average of 24.4 points. They have lost 3 conference home games by an average of 32 points.

Kansas State pick em Fresno State
While not technically a favorite, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since they are a pick em' on the road. The Wildcats have gone 2-5 since upsetting Texas in late September, but with the exception of the Iowa State game, the losses have been to teams ranging from decent to good. Fresno State is decent, but they are WAC decent, not Big 12 decent.

Kansas -2 Missouri @ Kansas City
Can the perfect season continue? Not only is Kansas 11-0, they are also 10-0 against the spread. Both the Jayhawks and Tigers have dynamic offenses, but Kansas has the better defense. The Tigers allow 23 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Jayhawks allow 14.2 points per game and 4.3 yards per play.

Five to Steer Clear Of

Wake Forest -1.5 Vanderbilt
Wake is playing for an 8-win regular season, while Vandy is playing for bowl eligibility. After coming tantalizingly close in losses to Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee, will Vandy get their breakthrough here?

Tennessee +3 Kentucky
Tennessee may well be the 4th of 5th best team in the SEC East, but they are poised to play in Atlanta with a win here.

Clemson -3 South Carolina
What will the psyche of the Tigers' be after their heartbreaking loss to Boston College? Will the bye week help the Gamecocks fix their defense and prevent a 5-game losing streak?

Auburn -6 Alabama
This line is scary. Can Alabama lose 4 straight under Saban and their 6th in a row to Auburn?

North Carolina -14 Duke
As a Wake fan, it feels good to have the best Division IA football program in North Carolina (at least for the time being).