2013 Conference USA SDPI

Having finished our sojourn through the BCS conferences, we now turn our attention to the little guys. We'll begin with Conference USA. Here is the link to last year's Conference USA post.

First here are the 2012 Conference USA standings.

And here are the 2012 Conference USA SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

Don Williams would have been proud because for the first time 2005, the champion of Conference USA was living on Tulsa time. The Golden Hurricane served to bookend this era of Conference USA football, winning the first ever Conference USA Championship Game in 2005, and winning the last of this current iteration of Conference USA football. The league will look a little different in 2013, as Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, and SMU head to the Big East (or American Athletic Conference) and Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and Texas-San Antonio join the league, giving it a robust fourteen members.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Marshall moved the ball with ruthless efficiency against their league brethren, but had a difficult time stopping opponents, and their resulting games, while entertaining, ended in defeat too often for a postseason invite. A 2-4 record in one-score games, as well as a non-conference schedule that featured three bowl teams also conspired to keep the Thundering Herd home for the holidays.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
There wasn't a great deal of disconnect between the actual standings and the SDPI ratings, but Rice is probably the answer here. The Owls were wholly unimpressive on both sides of the ball and three of their four league wins came against Southern Miss, Tulane, and UTEP, a trio than combined for a 4-20 league record.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Marshall 1.88
The Herd gained over 600 yards in three league games and topped the 500-yard barrier five times.

Worst Offense: Memphis -1.47
The Tigers appeared to get things together as the season wore on. In their first four league games during which they went just 1-3, Memphis averaged 272 yards per game. In their final four league games during which they went 3-1, Memphis averaged 382 yards per game.

Best Defense: Memphis 1.56
Like the offense, the defense improved in the second half of conference play. The Tigers allowed 357 yards per game through their first four, but just 306 per game over their last four games.

Worst Defense: Tulane -1.65
The defense was bad, very bad, but at least things got better. In their first conference games, the Green Wave allowed 651 yards to Tulsa. They would not allow that many yards to another team all season.

Honolulu East
June Jones has done an admirable job since taking the reigns of the Pony Express at SMU prior to the 2008 season. His charges have played in four consecutive bowl games, after missing out on the postseason for nearly a quarter century, have finished with a winning league record for four straight years, and even won their division in 2010. Not only that, but the Mustangs will be putting on their big boy pants (sort of) and moving on to the American Athletic Conference in 2013. But perhaps the most impressive thing June Jones has done at SMU has been to craft a distinct homefield advantage. Over the past four season, SMU has lost just a single time to a league foe at home. In that same span, they have gone just 7-9 on the road in conference play.

That compares quite favorable to the homefield advantage enjoyed by Hawaii during Jones' final four seasons on the islands.

SMU may not win the former Big East conference, but their home conference opponents, who all play on the east coast (Rutgers, Temple, Connecticut, and Central Florida), had better beware.

2013 SEC SDPI

I promised the 2012 reviews would start coming Fast and Furious. This marks the final BCS conference review as we finally examine the SEC. Here is the link to last year's SEC post.

First here are the 2012 SEC standings.

And here are the 2012 SEC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 14 teams) in parentheses.

The 2012 SEC marked the first time any BCS conference featured 14 teams. And while there was a great deal of heft at the top of the league, there were also some serious millstones at the bottom. Both Auburn and Kentucky went winless in the conference. For Auburn, it marked their first winless league campaign since 1952! As a point of reference, both Georgia Tech and Tulane were in the SEC back then. For Kentucky. one does have to go back quite as far.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
You knew the Arkansas Razorbacks were in for a rough year after a tumultuous offseason that saw their coach fired in disgrace, a psychopath hired in his place, and an early loss to Louisiana-Monroe. However, the Hogs were not quite as bad as their record showed. Tight losses to Ole Miss and LSU and an in-conference worse turnover margin of -13 ensured Arkansas would miss out on a bowl for the first time since 2008. 

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
LSU continues to defy the odds under Les Miles. Despite another season of middling peripherals, the Tigers won 75% of their league games and were 5-2 in one-score conference games. Under Miles, the Tigers are an amazing 25-11 in one-score conference games. Call him clutch, call him lucky, call him insane, but the man gets things done in tight spots.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Texas A&M 2.23
The league newcomer lead by eventual Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, absolutely shredded SEC defenses. After being held to 334 yards in their conference opener, the Aggies averaged an incredible 577 yards over their last seven league contests and topped 600 yards four times.

Worst Offense: Auburn -1.76
Texas A&M's lowest offensive output in the conference (334 yards against Florida) would have represented about 100 yards more than Auburn's average SEC output.

Best Defense: Alabama 1.78
LSU, Texas A&M, and then Georgia in the SEC Championship Game proved the defense was not impenetrable, but it sure seemed that way through their first five league games where the Tide held opponents to just 204 yards per game and allowed just four offensive touchdowns.

Worst Defense: Tennessee -1.79
The Volunteer offense was pretty good (ranking fourth in a strong league), but the defense was an absolute turnstile. Every conference opponent, even a woeful Kentucky squad, topped 400 yards against the Vols.

Winning the Les Miles Way
Some might say this is lazy, but I just feel I wrote a great article a few months ago. Head on over to College Football by the Numbers to check out a little something I wrote about Les Miles and the spread. You won't be disappointed.
http://www.cfbtn.com/2013/03/win-but-dont-cover-football-les-miles.html#.UaD1AJzefao

2013 Pac-12 SDPI

Sorry for the hiatus, but we're back with our offseason SDPI previews. I promise the next seven will go a lot faster than the first four. In this installment we tackle the Pac-12, a league that has sent two teams (and the same two teams I might add) to the BCS in each of the past three seasons. Here, as always, is a link to last year's Pac-12 post.

First here are the 2012 Pac-12 standings.

And here are the 2012 Pac-12 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

For the first time since 1999, the Stanford Cardinal won the Pac-12. Though they ranked a notch below the powerful Oregon Ducks, Stanford shut Oregon down in their head-to-head matchup (just their second win in the series since 2001) and won the division title and the opportunity to win the overall crown in the Pac-12 Championship Game. In other minutiae news, UCLA became the first school to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game more than once.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Despite their disappointing season, the Trojans from Southern Cal actually played at a relatively high level. The Trojans were above-average on both sides of the ball, but were 0-2 in one-score games, lost to three teams that finished the season ranked in the top-seven, and didn't show up for their bowl game in El Paso. Certainly, they were a major disappointment after beginning the season ranked number one, but they were far from your ordinary 7-6 also-ran. 

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
No one in the Pac-12 significantly outperformed their peripherals, but UCLA rated out below both Arizona State and Southern Cal in their division, despite winning the crown. The Bruins can thank a 3-1 record in one-score (regular season) conference games, including an exciting 45-43 victory over Arizona State that ultimately decided the division championship.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Oregon 1.80
The Ducks rolled up over 400 yards of offense in all nine of their league games and topped the 40-point barrier in each game save their loss to Stanford.

Worst Offense: Colorado -1.49
The Buffs opened conference play by gaining 531 yards in a win against Washington State. They averaged just 279 yards per game the rest of the way and did not win again.

Best Defense: Stanford 1.51
Arizona and Oregon gouged them (by their lofty standards at least) totaling over 1000 yards against the Cardinal defense. However, the other seven Pac-12 foes could only muster an average of 274 yards per game against Stanford, making those seven teams the equivalent of Colorado when they faced the nerds from Palo Alto.

Worst Defense: Arizona -1.98
It took a lot to be worse than Colorado at anything in 2012, but Arizona was up to the challenge. Four conference opponents gained over 600 yards against the porous Wildcat defense, and only one team failed to top 400 yards of offense.

What to Make of Arizona State?
The 2012 Sun Devils are a hard team to figure out. On the one hand, they ranked 3rd in SDPI, behind Oregon and Stanford. On the other hand, each of their five conference victories came against the bottom five teams in SDPI. However, their wins were usually convincing, as only one was by a single score, and they came by an average of 24 points per game. But when the Sun Devils stepped up in competition, they were more South Park Satan than powerful Prince of Darkness. In their four league losses, against teams ranked first (Oregon), fourth (Southern Cal), fifth (Oregon State), and seventh (UCLA), only one was close (the two-point loss to UCLA). The other three came by an average of nearly 18 points per game. Perhaps Dennis Green said it best, 'they are who we thought they were'. The Sun Devils were equivalent to a seventh grade bully in 2012, towering over the other kids on the playground with inhalers or who had yet to enter puberty, but not in the same class as the high school kids they long to emulate.

2013 Big 12 SDPI

Spring football is in the air to whet your appetite just in time for the long hot summer to arrive. This week, we'll take a look at how the Big 12 played out in 2012. For the second consecutive year, a team not named Oklahoma claimed the conference crown and the requisite BCS berth (though the Sooners did share the title). To catch you up, here's a link to last year's Big 12 post.

First here are the 2012 Big 12 standings.

And here are the 2012 Big 12 standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.

To say there was parity in the Big 12 last season would be an understatement. Nine of the league's ten teams finished bowl eligible, and eight concluded the postseason with a winning record. 60% of the teams in the conference finished with either four or five league wins, culminating in quite a log jam as four teams finished tied for fifth place.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Fresh off a season that nearly saw them play for a national title, and their first top-five finish since just after World War II, the Oklahoma State Cowboys were destined to regress. However, their five win conference season could easily have been seven. The Cowboys started three different quarterbacks thanks to a slew of injuries, lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, and finished outside the final polls for the first time since 2009. Rest assured though, Mike Gundy's team has reach a new floor. With more experience and a little better luck in 2013, the Cowboys will be in the running for another league title.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
I've made no secret of my affinity for Kansas State and their legend...wait for it...dary coach Bill Snyder. However, while the Wildcats were certainly a solid team, their statistical profile did not befit a team in contention for the national title until the season's final weeks. Kansas State did the little things well in 2012 to acquire such a sterling record. They forced a league-high 26 turnovers in their nine conference games, while committing a league-low seven for an amazing margin of +19 (Iowa State was second in Big 12 play at +5). While turnovers are somewhat a product of skill, they can be a fickle mistress, and one can be almost certain Kansas State will not post such a spectacular in-conference turnover margin in 2013.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Baylor 1.71
Sans RG3 and a few other former Bears now in the NFL, Baylor actually averaged 19 more yards per game in Big 12 play. The Bears topped 600 yards in five of their nine Big 12 games. Yet, they actually dropped two of those games. What could possibly be the reason for that (foreshadowing)?

Worst Offense: Iowa State -1.28
In a league where offense was the norm, Iowa State was held to twenty or fewer points in four of their nine conference games. Perhaps not surprisingly, their three conference wins all occurred in games where they scored at least 30 points.

Best Defense: TCU 1.53
Their first year in the Big 12 wasn't all they hoped it would be, but TCU still fielded an elite defense. The Horned Frogs held six of their nine league foes to fewer than 400 yards of total offense.

Worst Defense: Baylor -1.34
This is why Baylor lost a pair of games during which they gained over 600 yards (including one where they gained an even 700. Six conference opponents gained at least 500 yards of offense against the Bears.

Life on the Margins
In 2011, Kansas State boasted a fantastic in-conference turnover margin of +13. In 2012, they bettered that number to the tune of +19, giving them a turnover margin of +32 over two conference seasons. That is the largest in-conference turnover margin for a team from a BCS conference over that past eight seasons. Feast your eyes on the Wildcats and the rest of the top-10.

2013 Big 10 SDPI

We're almost five months away from any real amateur football (at least outside of Auburn) being played, but hopefully these SDPI recaps can keep you satiated. This week, we turn our attention to the nation's heartland, and the Big 10. 2013 will mark the final year of the Big 10 featuring twelve member schools (this incarnation will have lasted only three short seasons) as Rutgers and Maryland will join for the 2014 season. To catch you up, here is a link to last year's Big 10 post.

First here are the 2012 Big 10 standings.

And here are the 2012 Big 10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

Thanks to imposed sanctions at Ohio State and Penn State, the top-two teams according to SDPI were able to meet in the Big 10 Championship Game. Unfortunately, for the top-rated Huskers, the results from that game were quite forgettable. Wisconsin rolled up 70 points en route to their third consecutive Rose Bowl appearance. Now if they could just win one of those games...

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Wisconsin lost six games in 2012, a total very unbecoming of a champion from a major conference, much less a Rose Bowl participant. However, each loss came by seven points or fewer, and an amazing four losses came by exactly a field goal. In their four Big 10 losses, the combined margin of defeat was 16 points. None of their four Big 10 wins came by fewer than 17 points. Wisconsin bludgeoned the teams they were superior to and lost tight contests to their equals. If the Badgers had caught a few more breaks, 2012 could have resulted in a third-straight top-10 finish.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
The Buckeyes rang in the Urban Meyer era with an undefeated campaign. Unfortunately, they were ineligible for the conference crown and the postseason, so no banners will be hung. That could be poetic justice since the Buckeyes hardly had the makings of a powerhouse. The Buckeyes were solid on both sides of the ball, but this was hardly a juggernaut that rolled through the Big 10 leaving wolverine, lion, and badger carcasses in its wake. Fully half of their 12 wins came by a touchdown or less, including narrow escapes over luminaries like Cal, Indiana, and Purdue. Give the Buckeyes credit for their wins, but this team was not elite. More on that in just a bit.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Penn State 1.11
Bill O'Brien took over a reeling program and improved its offensive output from 345 yards per game in Big 10 play to 437 yards. No one will confuse the Penn State offense with the vintage Texas Tech teams of Mike Leach, but they were the best the Big 10 had to offer in 2012.

Worst Offense: Illinois -1.62
If you looked really closely on the Illinois sideline, it almost appeared as if Ron Zook was still coaching the team. The Illini averaged just 272 yards per game in league play and now are the proud owners of a 14-game conference losing streak.

Best Defense: Michigan State 1.12
Only a single Big 10 team gained more than 400 yards against the Spartan defense all season.

Worst Defense: Indiana -2.11
The Hoosiers had an interesting statistical sandwich in 2012. In their first three conference games, all defeats, they allowed 564 yards and 42.3 points per game. In their next two league games. both wins (their first conference winning streak since 2007), they allowed 359 yards and 19 points per game. Then, with bowl eligibility still a feasibility, they allowed 570 yards and 54.3 points per game in their final three league games (all losses).

Putting the 2012 Buckeyes in Historical Perspective
Ohio State finished the 2012 season undefeated and ranked 3rd in the AP Poll. It marked their third undefeated regular season since 2002. However, thanks to shenanigans during the previous administration, the Buckeyes were ineligible for the postseason and were not given a shot to play for the national championship. Did they deserve one? How good were they? To attempt to answer those questions, I looked at every team from a BCS conference that finished with an undefeated record prior to their bowl game since 1998 (the beginning of the BCS era). Including Ohio State last season, 20 teams have accomplished this feat. To objectively rate those teams, I used the Simple Rating System at college football reference dot com. The SRS uses margin of victory and strength of schedule to calculate how many points above average a particular team is. For instance, last season, Ohio State finished with an SRS of 13.81, meaning they were about two touchdowns better than an average team. This ranked 13th nationally. The results for the 20 teams are summarized in the table below.

Last year's Buckeyes were clearly in a class all by themselves. No other undefeated team from a BCS conference had performed at such a low level. No team had finished with an SRS score outside the top-six. Only one other team had finished below 17 points above average, and that was last season's Notre Dame team that was waxed by Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game. Remember, Ohio State didn't have a bowl game against an elite team to drag down their rating. Ohio State was good last season, but they didn't belong in the national championship game. Any team that struggled to put away Cal and Purdue at home, and Indiana on the road was probably not worthy of gridiron immortality.

2013 Big East SDPI

I know March Madness is ramping up and the Final Four is almost set, but lets go back and remember the legends of this past fall. Our second SDPI recap focuses on the Big East, a conference in flux in both membership and nomenclature. To get you on the up and up, here is a link to last year's Big East post.

First here are the 2012 Big East standings.

And here are the 2012 Big East SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of eight) in parentheses.

Things were pretty tight at the top of the Big East in the real standings (more on that later) and the SDPI ratings. Four teams tied for the conference crown while three teams finished at least one standard deviation above average.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
The Pitt Panthers opened the season by losing at home to IAA Youngstown State in grisly fashion. They one-upped that performance by opening conference play with three consecutive losses (to three of the four co-champions), but rebounded to win three of their final four conference games (all by at least three touchdowns) and give unbeaten Notre Dame a real challenge in South Bend. The Panthers were dominant over the final half of the Big East season, but theat performance could not make up for the huge hole they dug for themselves.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Louisville is the easy answer here. The Cardinals were hardly a top-15 team, but an easy schedule, a 6-1 record in one-score games (3-1 in the Big East), and a bowl upset will have this team drastically overrated heading into 2013. Temple was also much worse than their record. While the Owls managed just two wins in their return to the Big East, things could have easily been much worse. Their two wins came by a combined twelve points, while their five losses came by 125 points.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Syracuse 1.46
Behind senior quarterback Ryan Nassib, the Orange won their second bowl game in three seasons and tied for the league crown. The job this team did in winning eight games cannot be understated. Of their thirteen games, twelve were against teams from BCS conferences and eight were against teams that qualified for bowl games.

Worst Offense: Temple -1.09
The Owls began conference play by racking up 37 points in a home win over South Florida. Over their final six conference games, they averaged just 15.2 points per game.

Best Defense: Pitt 1.31
In their 0-3 start against the three best offenses in the conference, the Panthers allowed 410 yards and 31 points per game. When the competition eased up, the Panthers put the clamps down, allowing just 248 yards and 12.5 points per game over their 3-1 finishing kick.

Worst Defense: Temple -1.74
The Owls were miserable over their final four league contests, allowing 496 yards per game.

More Ties than a Board Room and The World Cup Combined
The Big East accomplished something pretty special in 2012. Four teams, or exactly half of its membership, shared the league championship. Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and Syracuse all finished with identical 5-2 records. This was historic for several reasons. It marked the third consecutive year there has been at least a three-way tie atop the standings. In 2010, Connecticut, Pitt, and West Virginia all finished 5-2 with the Huskies, by far the worst of the three teams claiming the league's BCS bid thanks to having beaten both the Panthers and Mountaineers. In 2011, Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia all finished 5-2 with a perfect rock/paper/scissors round robin result (Cincinnati beat Louisville who beat West Virginia who beat Cincinnati). West Virginia won the tiebreaker thanks to their loftier BCS ranking and annihilated Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Not only was this the third straight year the Big East had a mess at the top of the standings, but it was also just the second time in the BCS era (since 1998) that four teams finished tied atop the standings in a BCS conference. Care to guess when the other time was? It was another year of transition for the Big East conference. Miami and Virginia Tech pulled a Clarence Carter and slipped away to the ACC. Boston College was set to join them. The Big East had added Connecticut and was in the process of adding Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida whilst giving Temple the boot. Yes, 2004 was a strange time. The league had just seven teams, but amazingly, four teams (Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia) all shared the league crown. In 2013, neither of those four teams will be members of the Big East. Look back with awe and reverence on the 2012 Big East. With the ACC, Big 10, Pac-12, and SEC all playing championship games, and the Big East set to follow suit in the near future, it may be a long time before we see another four-way tie in a major conference.

2013 ACC SDPI

We're back! After a brief hiatus, our offseason tour through each of the eleven IA football conferences has returned. For those who don't know what SDPI is, here is the Reader's Digest synopsis. SDPI measures how many standard deviations a team is above or below average at gaining and preventing yards. Since conference play occurs in a vacuum, teams are rated against their conference mates and not against the nation at large. We'll begin with a look at the ACC. Here is a link to last year's ACC post.

First here are the 2012 ACC standings.

And here are the 2012 ACC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

The top of the ACC played out according to the SDPI ratings. Florida State and Clemson were the only two teams that finished with a total SDPI rating over 1.00. Perhaps not surprisingly, those two teams combined to go 14-2 in league play, and an even more impressive 13-1 when not facing each other (the lone loss came by a single point when the Seminoles visited NC State). Six of Florida State's seven league wins came by at least a touchdown and Clemson won all their conference games by double-digits. While the cream of the ACC resided on the Atlantic, the Coastal was more balanced. Teams ranked three through six by the SDPI metric were all housed in the Coastal. While the Atlantic and Coastal notched an even 9-9 record in the intra-division games, the four Atlantic teams outside of Florida State and Clemson were just 3-9 against their Coastal foes.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
One season after winning five ACC games, the Virginia Cavaliers only manged to win a quarter of their contests in 2012. The Cavaliers lost three games by a touchdown or less and were in the red in turnover margin in all six of their conference losses. In the lone conference game where they won the turnover battle, Virginia dominated NC State in Raleigh 33-6.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Duke won three games in the conference and qualified for their first bowl game since the Super NES and Sega Genesis were the consoles of choice. However, after winning their first two conference games (against Virginia and Wake Forest), the Blue Devils lost five of their final six and were outscored by 130 points in those contests. The Blue Devils also posted an in-conference best turnover margin of +10 and still managed just three wins. Of their six overall wins, only the home win over North Carolina (that clinched bowl eligibility) can be considered quality. Miami gets an honorable mention here as well. While the Hurricanes technically won the Coastal, and would have played in the ACC Championship Game if not for their self-imposed sanctions, they featured the second-worst defense in the conference and were fortunate to win five games in the league.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Clemson 1.54
For the second-consecutive year, the Tigers paced the ACC in offense. The Tigers gained at least 426 yards in every ACC game except one and twice went over 700 yards of total offense.

Worst Offense: Wake Forest -1.53
The Deacons opened league play with an impressive 426-yard effort in an upset of North Carolina. The Deacons would top 400 yards just once more in conference play, while being held below 300 yards five times.

Best Defense: Florida State 1.95
Clemson was the lone ACC team to eclipse 400 yards of total offense against the Seminoles.

Worst Defense: Duke -1.44
Wake Forest was the only ACC team not to eclipse 400 yards of total offense against the Blue Devils.

Is Florida State Back (For Real)?
Any preseason magazine that came out from say 2004 to 2010 absolutely declared that this was finally the year Florida State returned to the national elite. For the most part, those magazines were pretty wrong. In the twilight of the Bobby Bowden era, Florida State went from being the beast of the ACC and a national contender, to a middling ACC team that once lost three consecutive games to Wake Forest. The Seminoles finished the season ranked in the top-5 of the final AP Poll an incredible 14 consecutive times from 1987 to 2000. However, until the past season (a span of 12 years), the Seminoles did not finish in the AP top-10. With their first top-10 finish since the turn of the century, I think its fair to ask the question: Is Florida State really back? To answer that question, I decided to look at a few different metrics from the end of the Bowden era through the first three years of the Jimbo Fisher era that are summarized in the following table. 'Final AP' is pretty self-explanatory--it is the final ranking of the team in the AP Poll. 'Adj Pythag' is a metric of my own creation that takes touchdowns scored and touchdowns allowed within conference play and makes an estimation at the number of games a team would be expected to win. The number in parentheses is the conference rank for that particular year. Finally, 'SRS' stands for Simple Rating System and in a rudimentary way attempts to relay how many points above or below average a team is. The number in parentheses is the national rank for that particular year.

There is no doubt the Seminoles have improved after putting the old figurehead out to pasture. Florida State has finished the season ranked in the AP Poll for three consecutive years after finishing unranked in three of Bowden's final five seasons. The Seminoles have also consistently been among the best teams in the ACC during Fisher's brief tenure, ranking either first or second in Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Finally, the Seminoles have finished in the top-20 of the SRS for three consecutive years after accomplishing this just once in Bowden's final five seasons. While they may not be the devourer of worlds they were in the late-90's, the Seminoles have at least returned to a state of contention, both in the ACC and nationally.

The Future...

Some of you may have noticed (OK, one of you may have noticed) I have not made posts in a while. Don't worry, this blog is not going the way of the buffalo (or the way of the Buffaloes as it were). I have become a sporadic poster over at College Football by The Numbers. Here's my first post, a bowl preview. I will post previews of all the bowl games over there. Check them out if you're so inclined. In the offseason, I will continue posting at CFBT (probably about one post every week or two). However, this blog will remain active. Look for the annual SDPI recaps beginning in February followed by conference previews this summer and my weekly picks during next football season. As always, thanks for your readership and Merry Christmas!

Fab Five: Week XIV

It was bound to happen eventually. For the first time in nearly two months the picks were less than accurate as your humble prognosticator endured a 3-6-1 week. Still, the overall mark is a somewhat healthy 66-60-4. We'll try to conclude the season on a high note. Home teams in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4

Overall: 33-31-1

Wisconsin +3 Nebraska @ Indianapolis
Let this game serve as a Exhibit A for what can happen when you expand your conference and separate into divisions (and have two teams ineligible for the postseason). Wisconsin could sneak into the Rose Bowl with five losses if they happen to upset the Cornhuskers in this, the second-annual Big 10 Championship Game. Wisconsin won the first edition last season against Michigan State, and with Ohio State and Penn State both ineligible this season, were prohibitive favorites to return. The Badgers have returned, but with five regular season losses (tied for the most in the Bret Bielema era). While the losses have mounted in 2012, they have all been close. The Badgers have lost four games by exactly three points (including their first meeting with Nebraska in Lincoln) and another by seven in overtime. Despite the disparity in records, these teams seem about even. Don't be surprised if the Badgers leave Indianapolis with Roses in their mouths Saturday night.

South Florida +6.5 Pittsburgh
Last week, Pitt took a giant step toward bowl eligibility by pounding the current Big East front-runner, and by the time this game is played, potential Big East champion Rutgers by three touchdowns. Meanwhile, South Florida lost for the eighth time in their last nine games by 17 at Cincinnati. Easy play here right? Pitt in a snoozer. Before you double down on Pitt though, consider the Panthers have won just one road game all season (at Buffalo) and lost their last game as a road favorite three weeks ago versus Connecticut. The Panthers were in perfect position to take on Rutgers, coming off a bye. In addition, South Florida has been decent at home this season, posting a 2-3 record and covering in their lone game as a home underdog (versus Florida State). Pitt may well get their elusive sixth win here, but I think this game will be close.

Connecticut +5.5 Cincinnati
After their shocking win last week versus Louisville, the Connecticut Huskies seek to win their third straight game and get to bowl eligibility. Standing in their way is a Cincinnati team still technically alive for the Big East title. The Bearcats have just two league losses, and a win in Storrs coupled with a Louisville win over Rutgers would put them in a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse. The BCS bid would go to the highest ranked team in the BCS, so the Bearcats are out of luck there. Still, it would mark the second-consecutive shared title for the Bearcats (many may forget they finished tied with West Virginia and Louisville last season). Cincinnati is just 5-8-1 Against the Spread (ATS) on the road under head coach Butch Jones while the Connecticut Huskies are 3-0-1 ATS as a home underdog under head coach Paul Pasqualoni. Look for the Huskies to keep this one close as they fight to attain bowl eligibility.

Middle Tennessee State +10 Arkansas State
On this Championship Saturday, its fitting that this Sun Belt game is the de facto league championship. Both Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State enter this game sporting identical 6-1 league records. Middle Tennessee has won four straight overall and five straight in the league, while Arkansas State has rattled off six straight wins since losing their league-opener to Western Kentucky. The Blue Raiders from Middle Tennessee are looking for their first league crown since sharing the title with Troy in 2006. Arkansas State is looking to repeat as champions after finishing 8-0 to claim the title outright last season. Middle Tennessee State has been extremely solid on the road, going 5-1 (ATS), including 2-1 as an underdog, with the two covers resulting in straight up wins over Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky. Arkansas State has been less than stellar as a double-digit favorite, failing to cover in that role in both their games (versus Memphis and South Alabama) this season. Arkansas State should get their second consecutive league title, but Middle Tennessee will make them work for it.

South Alabama +6 Hawaii
I can't think of a better way to end your first season as a IA program than in Honolulu. That is just what the Jaguars from South Alabama get to do on Saturday night, and they may also be able to leave the islands with a win. Last week notwithstanding, when they rolled up 48 points on UNLV, the Warriors have been punchless in Norm Chow's first season as coach. Prior to that outburst, the Warriors had been averaging 17 points per game against their fellow Mountain West conference foes. In addition, they were also pretty bad ATS, failing to cover in any of their three previous home games. South Alabama has been solid as a road underdog this season, covering four times in six games. Look for that trend to continue here as they hang with Hawaii and potentially leave with third win of the season.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-2-1

Overall: 33-29-3

Northern Illinois -6 Kent State @ Detroit
For the first time since 2003, and only the second time in the game's history, both MAC Championship Game participants enter ranked in the AP Poll. In fact, if things fall into place, the winner of this game could crash the BCS party (especially if that winner is Kent State). While the Golden Flashes are a great story, Northern Illinois appears to be the real class of the MAC. In MAC-play, the Huskies won all their games by at least seven points, covered the spread in seven of eight games, and posted the league's most explosive offense. Kent State was impressive as well, winning all but one of their eight games by seven points or more. However, the Golden Flashes played in the weaker of the two divisions and are playing in their first postseason game since 1972. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is playing in their third straight MAC Championship Game and likely remembers the result from two seasons ago when they arrived as prohibitive favorites against a plucky upstart. Northern Illinois should win this game by double-digits.

Tulsa -2 Central Florida
Like the Pac-12, Conference USA rewards its strongest team by giving them homefield advantage in the conference title game. In the seven seasons that Conference USA has staged a title game, the favorite has covered four times, and the home team has covered four times. Those are hardly dominant trends. However, these teams played on the field just two weeks ago, with the result being a two-point win by the Golden Hurricane. Last week, in a rather meaningless game for Tulsa, they committed three turnovers and lost by eight to an SMU team fighting for their postseason lives. Meanwhile, Central Florida knew (after East Carolina's win on Friday) that they had to win to qualify for this game. They beat UAB by 25. With proper motivation, Tulsa is the better team. Plus they are playing at home, and need only win by a field goal to cover here.


Oklahoma State -4.5 Baylor
Give Baylor their due, as they have qualified for a third consecutive bowl game under Art Briles. That is quite an accomplishment for a team that went 16 years between bowl bids. Also give the Bears credit for knocking off an unbeaten Kansas State team at home two weeks ago, in one of the more memorable upsets of recent vintage. The Bears also won last week to get to that elusive six-win plateau. However, Texas Tech has been trending downward since bludgeoning West Virginia in mid-October. Since that game, the Red Raiders have lost four of six, with both wins coming in overtime, and have allowed a ghastly 492 yards per game. Oklahoma State has proven they remain a force to be reckoned with under Mike Gundy, even in a rebuilding year. The Cowboys have won seven games and are 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oklahoma State should do enough to beat the Bears by at least a touchdown here.

West Virginia -20 Kansas
What mid-western team is about to lose their 21st straight conference game? That's right, the Kansas Jayhawks. While I don't trust West Virginia to play any semblance of defense here, I also don't believe Kansas will come close to stopping Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and the rest of the West Virginia offense. Kansas has covered once all season on the road, and that came against a Texas Tech team that has imploded (though not as bad as last season) down the stretch. West Virginia may give up 30 here, but I have a hard time seeing them not coming close to 60 themselves.

Alabama -7 Georgia @ Atlanta
I have a hard time understanding the love Georgia has been getting of late. Since being waxed by South Carolina, the Bulldogs have won six straight, including an impressive win over Florida. However, of their six wins in that stretch, two came against SEC teams that failed to win a game in the conference (Kentucky and Auburn), one came against a IAA team (Georgia Southern), another came against a 6-6 SEC team (Ole Miss) , and the last one came against a 6-6 ACC team (Georgia Tech). On the other side, Alabama has faced a pair of tune-ups in preparation for this game, beating Western Carolina and Auburn by identical 49-0 scores since being upset by Texas A&M.. Alabama strikes me as the much better team, having allowed just ten offensive touchdowns in their eight SEC games. Georgia has a dynamic offense, but they will find the sledding rough against Alabama's elite defense. Plus Georgia's defense is a little suspect, allowing both Tennessee and South Carolina to crack the 30-point barrier against them. Look for the Crimson Tide to win by double-digits here.

Fab Five: Week XIII

During the first ten weeks of the college football season, your humble prognosticator did not push a single game. In the past two weeks, we have pushed thrice. How about that? Week 12 was another successful week, as I managed a 5-4-1 mark, bringing the yearly tally to 63-54-3. That also means we have now gone seven consecutive weeks with at least a .500 mark. I guess what that means is, the bottom is due to fall out at any time. Proceed with caution. Home teams in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 32-27-1

Ohio +10 Kent State
This season has gotten away from Ohio. The Bobcats began the season 7-0, included among the seven wins was a victory over Penn State. In fact, the Bobcats rose as high as number 23 in the AP Poll in late-October. However, the Bobcats have now lost three of four and have already failed in their endeavor to return to the MAC Championship Game for the second-consecutive year and third time in the past four seasons. That first conference title since 1968 will have to wait for another year. Meanwhile, Kent State has surged under second-year head coach Darrell Hazell. The Golden Flashes have won nine consecutive games and have qualified for their first ever MAC Championship Game. Since beginning the 2011 season 1-6, the Flashes have won 14 of their past 16 games, including 11 of 12 within the conference. Still, there are reasons to like Ohio to cover the big number in this game. The Bobcats are 4-1 Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit road underdog since 2008, while Kent State is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit home favorite under Hazell. There is also the look-ahead factor as Kent State has already earned a spot in the MAC Championship Game and may not be fully motivated. Look for Ohio to keep this one within a touchdown.

Georgia Tech +13.5 Georgia
Its been a weird season for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech began the season 2-4, with a home loss to Middle Tennessee State among the quartet of losses. The Yellow Jackets then pounded a poor Boston College team to improve to 3-4, but were subsequently manhandled the following week at home by BYU, in a game where they scored just one offensive touchdown and had their lowest yardage output (157 yards) since the Orange Bowl loss to Iowa to conclude the 2009 season. Since their home embarrassment to the Cougars, the Jackets have quietly won three straight to get to bowl-eligibility and will actually represent the Coastal Division in the ACC Championship Game thanks to Miami's self-imposed postseason ban. Still, in their six wins, the Jackets have beaten just one bowl-eligible team (Duke). That number doubles if we include the postseason-ineligible Tar Heels, but still that is hardly an impressive number. So why are they the pick here? Under Johnson, the Jackets are 9-5 ATS as a road underdog and 2-1 as a double-digit road underdog. They have also covered in both games under Johnson at Georgia, winning outright as a touchdown underdog in 2008, and losing by eight as a two-touchdown underdog in 2010. Meanwhile, Georgia is just 2-3 ATS as a double-digit home favorite this season and just 7-6 in such a role since 2009. And speaking of quality wins, Georgia has beaten just two bowl-eligible teams themselves (Vanderbilt and Florida), though Ole Miss could join that esteemed list if they beat Mississippi State this week. Georgia Tech should keep this one relatively close.

Texas-San Antonio +1 Texas State
This marks the first meeting of these two Division IA neophytes. Both teams will be moving to new conferences next season as the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners will move to Conference USA and the Texas State Bobcats will move to the Sun Belt. Besides being newcomers to IA football and residing in the Lone Star State, both teams are also coached by men you may have heard of. The Roadrunners are led by former Miami head coach and national champion, Larry Coker. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are coached by noted Mrs. Doubtfire lookalike and former Alabama and Texas A&M coach Dennis Franchione. Both teams have been moderately competitive in their first foray into IA football. Texas State owns two wins over fellow IA programs, including a monumental upset in their first game against Houston. Texas-San Antonio has won thrice against IA teams, beating South Alabama, New Mexico State, and Idaho. In fact, in WAC play, the Roadrunners have gained more yards and allowed fewer yards than Texas State. They are also playing at home, so this spread should probably be about a field goal in the other direction. The Roadrunners should conclude their inaugural IA season with their eighth overall win.

Rutgers +2 Pittsburgh
The Scarlet Knights continue their quixotic quest towards their first conference championship and BCS-bowl bid. Last week they upset Cincinnati on the road to improve to 5-0 in the conference. Win or lose here, their game next week at home against Louisville will likely determine the Big East champion. Rutgers boasts the best defense in the Big East and has allowed just four offensive touchdowns in their five conference games. The Knights also boast a solid track record on the road this season, winning in all three games as a road underdog (South Florida, Arkansas, and Cincinnati). The Pitt Panthers need wins in their final two games (versus Rutgers and next week at South Florida) to salvage a bowl game in Paul Chryst's first season as head coach. I don't think they will be able to come through against a stout Rutgers defense this weekend. Fortunately for Pitt, Chryst is likely to stick around and coach next season, marking the first time since 2010 they have had the same head coach for two consecutive seasons.

Indiana +6 Purdue
On the surface, this game may not appear to have any far-reaching significance. However, it could be quite significant for the employment opportunities of Danny Hope, head coach at Purdue. Hope has guided the Boilermakers for four seasons and has posted just a 21-27 mark, including a 5-6 record this season. His lone bowl appearance came last year on the heels of a 6-6 regular season campaign. This game is also pretty significant for Indiana football. This game is not only for the Old Oaken Bucket, a trophy Indiana has won just twice in the past ten years, but it would also give the Hoosiers three conference wins for the first time since 2007, and just the third time in the past decade. The Hoosiers have been rather feisty in head coach Kevin Wilson's second season, posting a 4-3 ATS record as an underdog and a 3-2 ATS record on the road. Meanwhile, Purdue has hardly been a lock as a home favorite under Danny Hope, posting just a 4-8 ATS mark in such a role. In addition, the Boilermakers are just 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Look for Indiana to keep this one close and potentially keep their in-state rivals out of the postseason.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-2-1

Overall: 31-27-2

Syracuse -8 Temple
Last week the Orange went on the road and won against an SEC opponent (Missouri) as a four-point underdog. The win got the Orange to the magical six-win threshold for the second time in three seasons and also represented their first win against an SEC opponent since September of 2001 when they beat Auburn at the Carrier Dome. Now the Orange will try to get to seven regular season wins against a Temple team also off an outright upset. The Owls were a slight two-point underdog last week against Army, but managed to roll up a season high 565 yards and 63 points against a very porous Army defense. The Black Knights rank 123rd out of 124 teams in yards per play allowed, permitting a nearly inconceivable 6.91 per snap. In their five previous games, during which they went 1-4, the Owls averaged 285 yards and 14.2 points per game, much more indicative of their actual skill level. In Big East play, Temple ranks dead last in both yards gained and yards allowed. Syracuse has a very potent offense, ranking second only to Louisville in the Big East, and a respectable defense. The Orange should win this one by about two touchdowns.

Arizona -3 Arizona State
This year's battle for the Territorial Cup involves a pair of teams enjoying moderate success under first-year head coaches. The Arizona Wildcats already have seven wins, and with a victory against their in-state rivals followed by another in their bowl game, would own nine wins for the first time since winning 12 in 1998. Mike Stoops never won more than eight in his eight seasons in Tucson. Arizona State is also bowl-eligible under Todd Graham, meaning both Arizona schools will head to the postseason for the first time since 1997! Arizona State has struggled on the road, winning only against the dregs of the conference (Cal and Colorado), while losing by double-digits to both Oregon State and Southern Cal. Meanwhile, Arizona is 6-1 at home, with their lone loss coming at the hands of Oregon State. The Wildcats have issues on defense, but should be able to move the ball well enough to win by about a touchdown.

Miami -6 Duke
With the recent announcement that they will be forgoing a bowl for the second-consecutive season, this trip to Durham marks Miami's final game of the 2012 season. The Hurricanes have fared better than most thought in the preseason. With a win against the Blue Devils, the Hurricanes would technically be your 2012 Coastal Division champions. Unfortunately, the self-imposed postseason ban means the Hurricanes have already ceded their slot in the ACC Championship Game to Georgia Tech. Miami will try to finish the season on a solid note against a Duke team, that while bowl-eligible for the first time since Ini Kamoze was nationally relevant, is actually pretty horrible on defense. Miami is 4-0 ATS since 2010 as a single-digit road favorite and under Golden, the Hurricanes are a solid 6-2-1 ATS in all road games. Look for that trend to continue here as Miami easily tops 30 points, becoming the sixth straight team to score at least 30 against the Devils, and wins comfortably here.

Louisville -12.5 Connecticut
Is it time to jump off the Louisville bandwagon? After beginning the year 9-0, the Cardinals fell in relatively grisly fashion to Syracuse, and have now had a week to dwell on their first loss. The Cardinals remain in the top-20 of the latest poll, in fact they are the highest ranked team in the Big East. However, they are a virtual afterthought nationally. Still, with the Big East's automatic BCS bowl bid still well within their sights, motivation, or lack thereof should not be a problem in this game. Their opponent in this game, the Connecticut Huskies enter needing a win and a win next week against Cincinnati to return to the postseason for the first time under second-year head coach Paul Pasqualoni. The Huskies are also off a bye, having won two weeks ago against a Pitt team still obviously hung over after their close loss to Notre Dame. The Huskies have proven to have a solid defense, but they have real issues moving the ball, which could be a problem against a strong Louisville offense. It should also be noted that the Cardinals are 3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under head coach Charlie Strong. Conversely, the Huskies are 0-7-1 as a road underdog under Pasqualoni. Look for both those trends to continue here in a blowout Louisville win.

Ball State -7 Miami
Ball State head coach Pete Lembo has won wherever he has coached. Be it Lehigh, Elon, or Ball State, the man gets the job done. In 12 seasons as a head coach, his teams have posted just one losing season (his first at Elon in 2006). Lembo took over a Ball State team that had gone 6-18 in the two seasons prior to his arrival, matched that win total in his first year (6-6) and has the Cardinals standing at 8-3, riding a five-game winning streak. Lembo has done very well ATS in nearly all roles as head coach at Ball State. His teams are 2-1 ATS as road favorites, 9-3 ATS overall on the road, 6-1 ATS on the road in MAC play, and 10-5 ATS overall in the MAC. Ball State has an explosive offense and should be able to win this game by double-digits and get to nine regular season wins. 

Fab Five: Week XII

After going ten weeks without a single push, we pushed twice on Saturday. On the whole though, it was a reasonably successful week, as I finished 5-3-2. The yearly mark is now 58-50-2. Perhaps most impressively, your humble prognosticator has now posted six consecutive non-losing weeks. Let's see if we can grab lucky number seven this week. Home teams in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-1-1

Overall: 29-25-1

Rutgers +6.5 Cincinnati
This tilt that may involve the eventual Big East champion has lost a bit of its luster over the last month as both of these teams have lost non-conference games to MAC opponents. Cincinnati lost at Toledo a little less than a month ago, while Rutgers lost the following week at home to Kent State. This game appears to be a clash of strengths. Cincinnati boasts one of the top offenses in the Big East (currently third behind Louisville and Syracuse), but on defense they rate ahead of only Temple. Meanwhile, Rutgers is below average on offense, but can lay claim to having the number one defense in the conference. This game will also mark the end of an Against the Spread (ATS) run for one of these teams. Rutgers is 2-0 as a road underdog this season, with outright wins at both South Florida and Arkansas earlier this year. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has covered in each of their three games as a home favorite (versus Pitt, Miami of Ohio, and Syracuse). Rutgers is a bit limited on offense, but against team's without great defenses, the Scarlet Knights have been able to move the ball (over 500 yards against Arkansas and over 400 yards against South Florida). Cincinnati may win this game and ease back into the league race, but Rutgers should match them step-for-step and keep this one close.

Northwestern +7 Michigan State
Northwestern has been oh, so close to becoming a contender in the Legends Division this season. They had a 12-point fourth quarter lead at home against Nebraska before falling by a single point, and then last week owned a late field goal lead against Michigan before this great catch near the end of regulation that resulted in an OT loss:
If the Wildcats can hang on in either or both of those games, they are in the hunt for the Rose Bowl. As it stands, they are still bowl-eligible and have a shot to put a damper on the bowl designs of Michigan State. The Spartans are just 5-5 despite a strong defensive showing, thanks mostly to their general ineptness at offensive football. The Spartans have lost three games where they have allowed fewer than 20 points and have averaged just 18.8 points per game in Big 10 play. In addition, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 4-7 ATS as a home conference favorite since 2009. Meanwhile, Northwestern is a solid 7-4 ATS as a road conference underdog since 2009. This one should be low-scoring and decided in the final minutes. Don't be surprised if Northwestern does enough to pull off the outright upset.

Indiana +18 Penn State
Indiana is your consummate underrated underdog this week (CUU for short). The Hoosiers were embarrassed at home last week by Wisconsin 62-14 in a game where they were only a touchdown underdog. However, the Badgers have had Indiana's number the last three seasons. Including last week, the Hoosiers have lost to the Badgers by an average score of 14-68. And how have the Hoosiers done in their previous two road trips following the shellackings by Wisconsin? They have covered both times, winning outright as a field goal underdog at Purdue in 2010, and losing by 21 as a 23-point underdog to Iowa last season. In fact, if you limit your view to this season, Indiana has been very competitive. They are 4-2 ATS as an underdog and 2-1 ATS as a road underdog. Indiana will almost certainly lose this game, but I think the margin will be about two touchdowns.

Kansas +6 Iowa State
Is this the week? Can Kansas finally get their first conference win under the legendary (in his own mind) Charlie Weis and break an incredible 19-game conference losing streak? That's right, Kansas has not won a Big 12 game since beating Colorado with an avalanche of 35 fourth quarter points on November 6th, 2010. Since going 4-4 versus the Big 12 in 2008, Kansas is now just 2-30 in their last 32 conference games. That, my friends, is futility. However, Kansas has been reasonably competitive ATS during that span. Last season they were 2-2 ATS as a home dog versus Big 12 opponents, including nearly upsetting Baylor and eventual Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin. This season, Kansas has covered in each of their three games as a home underdog against Big 12 opponents, losing by 14 to TCU, by just six to Oklahoma State, and by four to Texas. The Jayhawks were also competitive last week on the road at Texas Tech, losing in OT by seven. Meanwhile Iowa State enters this game needing just one more win to qualify for their second consecutive bowl and third in the four-year tenure of Paul Rhoads. While Iowa State has won four Big 12 road games during his time in Ames, the Cyclones have only been road favorites against a Big 12 opponent once! They ended up losing that game by 20 points, and missed out on a bowl because of it. Iowa State is fighting for their bowl lives, but Kansas has been particularly feisty at home and has actually gained more yards and allowed fewer yards than the Cyclones in Big 12 play. Look for the long losing streak to end Saturday in Lawrence.

Syracuse +4 Missouri
Both these teams enter this late-season non-conference clash with 5-5 records. The winner will be bowl-eligible, and the loser will have just one more opportunity to qualify for a bowl game. Syracuse concludes their season with a visit to Temple, while Missouri finishes up with a road trip to Texas A&M. Thus, it would stand to reason that the Tigers need this game much more than the Orange. The Orange have quietly rebounded from a 1-3 start, and actually still have a remote (very remote) chance to walk away with the conference's Orange Bowl bid in their final season in the Big East. The Orange have moved the ball quite effectively of late, topping 500 yards of total offense thrice in the last four games behind senior quarterback Ryan Nassib and a pair of senior receivers in Marcus Sales and Alec Lemon. Conversely, Missouri has had trouble moving the ball all season, with their best offensive performance of the year coming last week against a pitiful Tennessee defense. Missouri is hardly a lock as a home favorite, going just 5-8 ATS since 2009 in that particular role. Look for this game to be very tight and don't be surprised if Syracuse leaves with an outright upset. 

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-2-1

Overall: 29-25-1

Florida Atlantic -1.5 Florida International
Back in August, most Sun Belt aficionados (all four of them), probably would have pegged this spread to be Florida International -14 or so. And for good reason. The Panthers were coming off an 8-5 season and were prohibitive Sun Belt favorites. Their head coach, somewhat of a hot commodity in the offseason, had decided to remain in Miami and the future looked bright. Meanwhile, the Owls were coming off a 1-11 season and were bringing in a new, first-time head coach. Flash forward three months, and the Panthers are looking up at the Owls in the league standings. The Panthers won their first Sun Belt, and just their second overall, game two weeks ago against South Alabama. The Panthers have not fared much better ATS either. They are just 4-6 ATS overall and 1-5 ATS as a single-digit underdog. While the Owls have won just three times on the year themselves, they have been money against the spread, covering in eight consecutive games and going 8-1 ATS versus IA competition this year, including a perfect 2-0 ATS at home. Since both teams joined the Sun Belt in 2005, the Owls have won and covered in five of seven games. Look for that trend to continue here. This spread should be closer to a touchdown.

Tulsa -2 Central Florida
In a week that features exactly zero clashes between top-10 teams and just two tilts between teams ranked in the top-25, this undercard deserves your attention. Plus it kicks off at Noon. So while the SEC is challenging themselves with some IAA squads, turn your attention to Conference USA. Both these teams enter the game with matching 6-0 conference marks, and the winner will clinch their respective division and earn a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game. While the loser will still likely qualify for the title game, the winner here will be assured of hosting a potential rematch on December 1st. Not only are both schools 6-0 in  league play, they are also both 8-2 overall with the losses coming to BCS-conference opponents. Central Florida lost a relatively close game at undefeated Ohio State 31-16 and blew their chance for a program-defining win by losing at home to Missouri 21-16. Meanwhile Tulsa lost at Iowa State to open the season 38-23 and then fell at Arkansas two weeks ago 19-15. Both these teams are the best Conference USA has to offer this season. Tulsa is a little bit better on offense, while Central Florida is a little bit better on defense. Tulsa has a sterling home record under second-year head coach Bill Blankenship, losing only to Oklahoma State and Houston last season (two teams that combined for a 25-2 record). This one should be tight throughout, but the Golden Hurricane should manage to win by at least a field goal.

Utah State -3 Louisiana Tech
While this may be the final season for the WAC as a football conference, the league has certainly not gone gentle into that good night. The league has three strong teams, with Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, and Utah State combining for a 25-5 mark. While Louisiana Tech has gotten the love from the pollsters (ranked 19th in the current AP Poll), one can make a plausible argument that Utah State is actually the better, and more complete team. There is no argument that the Aggies have the better defense. Over the course of the season, they have allowed two thousand (that's right 2000!) fewer yards than the Bulldogs. They have also held their own on offense too, averaging 6.65 yards per play (to Louisiana Tech's stellar 6.67). The Aggies are also on a stellar ATS streak, posting an 8-0-1 mark against IA competition this season, including a near-perfect 4-0-1 mark on the road. Louisiana Tech has not been as strong against the number, posting a 5-4-1 mark ATS and just a 1-2-1 mark at home. Utah State is one of the more underrated teams in the country and should win this one by about a touchdown and continue their great ATS streak.

Georgia Tech -13.5 Duke
The Duke Blue Devils are 6-4 and eligible for their first bowl game since 1994. They are a great story, but they are not a good team. If we remove games against Florida International, Memphis, and NC Central, the Blue Devils have been outscored by about 14.3 points per game. And here's a newsflash, the Blue Devils play in the ACC. Outside of Florida State and Clemson, the ACC is very weak. In their last six games, the Blue Devils have allowed an average of 513 yards per game! That's not great news going on the road against an offense as prolific as Georgia Tech's. Duke is just 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season and an even weaker 1-3 ATS as a road underdog. Georgia Tech certainly has issues on defense themselves, but they should do enough to exorcize the Blue Devils by at least two touchdowns.

Wisconsin -3 Ohio State
Time to start a new streak. In their last home game, Wisconsin fell to Michigan State, their first home loss since October 17th, 2009 versus Iowa, snapping a 21-game home winning streak. The Badgers took out some of their anger on Indiana last week, crushing the Hoosiers 62-14. Now they get a chance to ruin Ohio State's dreams of an unbeaten season. While the Buckeyes have won all ten of their games, they have certainly not always looked great. They managed to sneak by an average at best Cal team at home by seven, won at Michigan State by a point, won at Indiana by three, and needed overtime to escape Purdue at home. Still, 10-0 is 10-0, even if it comes within the confines of the Big 10. Can the Buckeyes continue their run of success and leave Camp Randall Stadium victorious as they did in Terrelle Pryor's third career start in 2008?  Well, since that loss to Iowa nearly over three years ago, Wisconsin has gone a stellar 12-6 ATS as a home favorite. The Badgers should be amped for this game after their heartbreaking loss to the Buckeyes a year ago (if you don't know about it, just check out the Watch ESPN commercial with the guy leaving the convenience store). Michigan State was able to beat the Badgers by shutting down their offense. Ohio State does not have that kind of defense (case in point, they gave up 49 points to Indiana). Look for Wisconsin to win by about a touchdown.

Fab Five: Week XI

For the second consecutive week your self-proclaimed prognosticenti posted a 5-5 mark. While we are disappointed with our showing, it did mark the fifth consecutive week we managed at least a .500 record. The tally for the year stands at 53-47. Home teams in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4

Overall: 26-24

Florida Atlantic +17 Western Kentucky
After winning just one game last season, and going winless in the Sun Belt, the Owls from Florida Atlantic have already doubled last season's win total and captured their first conference win since early-November 2010. Very quietly this game is a matchup of the two best defenses in the Sun Belt. Western Kentucky is already bowl-eligible for the second-consecutive season and at 3-2 in league play has designs on their first championship as a IA team. While Florida Atlantic will be home for the holidays for the fourth consecutive season, they have shown improvement, boasting the second best defense in the conference. In addition, the Owls have been rather spectacular Against the Spread (ATS) in Carl Pelini's first season at the helm. The Owls have been underdogs in each of their eight games versus IA opponents. However, the Owls have covered the spread seven times in those eight games, including a perfect 4-0 mark in games as a double-digit underdog. This one will be much closer than the three-score line.

Air Force +8 San Diego State
Last week, Air Force lost to Army for the first time since 2005 and in the process lost their two-year grip on the Commander in Chief Trophy (having lost to Navy earlier in the season). The Falcons were done in by five turnovers, their most since 2010, a span of 26 games. Meanwhile, San Diego State upset Boise State on the Smurf Turf, becoming the first team to win at Boise against the Broncos since...TCU last season. However, San Diego State was slightly outgained by the Broncos in that game and the winning margin was provided on a kickoff return touchdown. Air Force is a little undervalued here and San Diego State is a little overvalued. This spread should be closer to a field goal in San Diego State's favor. Don't be surprised if the Falcons pull off the outright upset here.

Oregon State +4 Stanford
After two down years where they posted just eight combined wins, the Oregon State Beavers have returned with a vengeance. The Beavers are currently 7-1 and still control their own destiny in their quest for their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1964. The Beavers visit Stanford this week in an elimination game in the Pac-12 North. Oregon State is an outstanding 18-8 ATS as an underdog since 2009, including an impressive 4-0 this season (with three of those covers coming on the road). Meanwhile, Stanford is just 1-3 ATS this season as a home favorite, narrowly surviving as relatively large home favorites against San Jose State and Arizona. Oregon State should cover here, and could leave with an outright upset.

Louisiana-Lafayette +26.5 Florida
After covering for six consecutive games, the Florida Gators are in the midst of a two-game streak of failing to cover the spread. Could it be that those folks slow to warm up to the Gators are starting to overvalue them? The Gators are unbeaten ATS as an underdog this season, pulling three outright upsets against Texas A&M, Tennessee, and LSU. However, as a favorite, the Gators are just 3-3, with a late cover against Vanderbilt and a misleading 44-11 blowout against South Carolina. In addition, Florida is just 2-2 ATS since 2010 against mid-major foes. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-1 ATS versus BCS-conference opponents under head coach Mark Hudspeth and a robust 7-1 ATS as a road underdog. This game means nothing to Florida, so it would not surprise me to see the Gators come out very lethargic and win by about 24 points. 

Washington State +16 UCLA
UCLA is riding high off of their shocking 56-point beatdown of Arizona. Now they must travel to Pullman, Washington to face a team coming off a 43-point loss. This number is inflated a tad by both of those large margins last weekend. Washington State is actually a solid 5-2 ATS since 2010 as a double-digit home underdog. UCLA has already proven under their first-year head coach Jim Mora that they are prone to head-scratching road losses, falling 43-17 in Berkley against a mediocre at best Cal team last month. Look for the Cougars to make this one much closer than the experts think.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 4-1

Overall: 27-23

Fresno State -3 Nevada
One of the more pleasant surprises in the mid-major world has to be Fresno State. In 2011, the Bulldogs posted just their second losing season since 1998 and gave long-time coach Pat Hill a pink slip. The Bulldogs brought in Texas A&M defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter and seemed likely to return to the postseason with 14 starters back. The Bulldogs have done much more than that. They are currently 7-3 with a shot at both their first ten-win season since 2001 and their first conference title since 1999. The Bulldogs' three losses have come on the road at Oregon, Tulsa, and Boise State, teams with a combined 23-4 record! ATS, Fresno has been even better, posting an incredible 8-1 mark, including a 4-1 mark on the road and a 6-0 mark as a favorite. Meanwhile, Nevada has dropped two straight after a 6-1 start. The Wolfpack do own a win over Cal from the Pac-12, but the Golden Bears have proven to be a rather middling BCS-conference team (currently have a 3-7 record). Nevada is 0-3 ATS at home this season, and just 2-6 overall. Fresno State could be the best team in the Mountain West and is one of the strongest mid-major teams this season. This spread should be closer to a touchdown.

Oklahoma State -9 West Virginia
Has any bandwagon ever come to a screeching halt quite like the dual stagecoaches piloted by Dana Holgorsen? Six weeks into the season, West Virginia stood 5-0 and was ranked fifth in the nation. Quarterback Geno Smith had 24 touchdown passes and no interceptions and seemed ready to run away with the Heisman Trophy. Fast forward five weeks, and the Mountaineers have lost three consecutive games, with two coming at home, while being outscored by 77 points. Smith has thrown for a more modest five touchdowns and three interceptions the past three games and is no longer even in the Heisman conversation. Now the Mountaineers must travel to Stillwater to face an Oklahoma State team that is 13-7-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2009, and an even more impressive 7-1 ATS as a single digit home favorite. Oklahoma State is criminally undervalued. They actually outgained Kansas State last week and have won their last two home games by 21 and 22 points respectively. Look for more of the same against one of the worst defenses in college football.

Tennessee -3 Missouri
It's Dooley or Die time for Tennessee. The Vols have lost six consecutive SEC games dating back to last season and are just 1-12 versus conference foes since the start of 2011. If Dooley has designs on keeping his job, this is a game the Vols likely must win. The good news for Tennessee fans is that Missouri represents the softest conference competition they have faced this season. Tennessee has lost close games to Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina (combined record 22-5) and been blown out by Alabama and Florida (combined record of 17-1). Missouri enters this game with a 4-5 record, and with only a single win on the road this season (at Central Florida). Tennessee is a little undervalued after their scare last week against Troy. The Trojans have a dynamic offense, while Missouri has struggled to move the ball all season, failing to generate more than 395 yards against any IA opponent. In addition, Tennessee is a solid 3-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite under Dooley. Look for the Vols to get back on track as they outscore Missouri and win by at least a touchdown.

Virginia -1 Miami
The only underdog game I called correctly last week was Virginia against NC State. Now, I did not honestly believe the Cavaliers would win in Raleigh, but the ten-point spread was just too much to overlook. Now, after that big upset, the Cavaliers return home, knowing they must win out to make a second-consecutive postseason trip. The primary difference in last week's win and their previous quartet of ACC losses was ball security. Virginia committed just a single turnover last week against the Wolfpack after giving the ball away nine times in their previous four league games. Miami also won last week and is in the driver's seat for their first ever Coastal Divsion title. The Hurricanes beat Virginia Tech for the first time since 2008 and improved to 4-2 in the ACC. However, the Hurricanes were outgained in that game (as they have been in five of their six ACC contests). In fact, Miami has the second-worst defense in the ACC, besting only the boys from Durham in that category. Virginia has won two straight in this series and should do enough to keep their faint bowl hopes alive.

Ole Miss -3 Vanderbilt
Despite their loss at Georgia last week, Ole Miss still has a very good shot at becoming bowl-eligible in their first season of play under head coach Hugh Freeze. The Rebels need only win once in their final three games, against either Vandy, LSU, or Mississippi State. Similarly, Vanderbilt just needs a single win in their final three games (Ole Miss, Tennessee, or Wake Forest) to become bowl-eligible for the second-consecutive season under James Franklin. While both these teams have enjoyed solid seasons, Ole Miss has been better ATS, posting a 6-2 mark, including a 3-1 mark at home. For his career, head coach Hugh Freeze is now 15-4 ATS (9-2 last season at Arkansas State). His team's are also 6-1 as a home favorite. Vanderbilt has been decent on the road under James Franklin (4-5 ATS), but Hugh Freeze is a hard man to go against, especially at home laying just a field goal.