Even the Losers: Louisiana Tech

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. Our sixth team profiled is the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech

2013 Record: 4-8 (3-5 Conference USA)

Summary: After going a combined 17-8 in 2011 and 2012, the Bulldogs lost their head coach as Sonny Dykes took his spread attach west to the University of California. In his stead, the Bulldogs chose a proven mid-major commodity who had just been fired by South Florida, Skip Holtz. The younger Holtz would have to replace some key pieces on offense, but a reasonable fan likely still expected the Bulldogs to at least compete for bowl eligibility, and the most delusional supporters likely figured the Bulldogs to be in the mix for the Conference USA title. The year began rather inauspiciously, with a 40-14 shellacking at the hands of NC State, a team that would go on to finish 0-8 in the ACC. The Bulldogs returned home and beat Lamar from IAA and on a short week, hosted in-state foe Tulane (in just their second ever meeting) in their first conference game as a member of Conference USA. The Bulldogs were held to 15 points and dropped to 1-2. The next week they traveled to Kansas and lost to a Jayhawk team that had not beaten a IA team since 2011. The next week, the Bulldogs lost to Army before ending their three-game skid the following week at UTEP. After a week off, the Bulldogs lost at home to North Texas, then won two in a row against the dregs of Conference USA (Florida International and Southern Miss). With just a touch of momentum built up, the Bulldogs responded by losing each of their final three games by at least ten points to Rice, Tulsa, and Texas-San Antonio to finish 4-8 and equal their losses from the previous two seasons combined.

What Did the Bulldogs Do Well?
Beat the dregs of the conference. While the Bulldogs didn't win every game they were favored in, losing to both Tulane and in the non-conference against Army as a betting favorite, the Bulldogs three conference wins came against UTEP, Florida International, and Southern Miss. Those three teams combined for a 4-32 overall record with two of the wins coming in pillow fights among themselves (UTEP over Florida International and Florida International over Southern Miss). 

What Didn't the Bulldogs Do Well?
Have explosive receivers. The bad news for Louisiana Tech is that their top quartet of receivers from 2013 will be gone when the 2014 season begins. The good news is those four gentlemen, led by Sterling Griffin, combined for just 1252 yards on 124 catches with just four touchdowns. 16 individual receivers had more yards in 2013. Two receivers had more catches. More than 100 receivers had more touchdown receptions. Every receiver in the top-100 in yards per catch averaged at least five yards more per reception than the piddling 10.1 this quartet averaged collectively. Some new blood, and experience at the quarterback position will not hurt in 2014.


The Bulldogs Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists Louisiana Tech's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference Louisiana Tech played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Bulldogs averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Bulldogs allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

Sonny Dykes took over for Derek Dooley in 2010 after Vince's son and Bill's nephew left for Ol' Rocky Top. The 2010 team was not especially strong, but managed a 4-4 mark in the WAC. With the WAC weakened by the departure of Boise State in 2011, the Bulldogs rose to the occasion and won the conference title on the strength of a fantastic defense and played in just their third bowl game in the last two decades. Perhaps ironically, while Dykes came to Ruston as an offensive guru, his first two teams were middling on that side of the ball. His 2012 team on the other hand, lit up the scoreboard, averaging over 51 points per game. The Bulldogs came into 2012, and an even weaker WAC, as the preseason favorite. They began the season with a 9-1 record, including road wins at Illinois and Virginia, with their lone loss up to that point coming to eventual Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. Their defense, an issue all season, let them down in the final two games, allowing 100 combined points to Utah State and San Jose State as the Bulldogs missed out on consecutive league titles. Still, with a 9-3 mark, a bowl game was seemingly assured. However, the Bulldogs either turned down or waited too long to accept an invitation (depending on your point of view) to the Independence Bowl (held in their home state) and were not invited to any other postseason contest. Sonny Dykes took the head coaching job at Cal, senior quarterback Colby Cameron matriculated, and Louisiana Tech had a player selected in the NFL Draft for the first time since 2010. Actually, with receiver Quinton Patton and offensive lineman Jordan Mills being taken, the Bulldogs had a pair of players selected. Skip Holtz took the reigns and as expected with all the attrition, the offense declined significantly. However, it pays to mention the defense improved by nearly as much as the offense declined.

The 2014 Schedule:
For Louisiana Tech, the non-conference schedule is far from easy. The Bulldogs have assured themselves at least two losses as they travel to Oklahoma and national runner-up Auburn. A third non-conference game comes on the road at Louisiana-Lafayette, a nascent Sun Belt power under Mark Hudspeth that has played in three consecutive bowl games. Once upon a time, the Cajuns and Bulldogs were annual foes, playing thirteen consecutive seasons from 1988 through 2000. These two have not met since 2004, and the Bulldogs have won six straight in the series, but times are a lot different than they were a decade ago. The team from Lafayette will likely be favored in this one. Their other non-conference game is a likely win against IAA Northwestern State. That means the Bulldogs will need to win at least four and more likely five conference games to attain bowl eligibility. In conference play, the Bulldogs will host Rice, Texas-San Antonio, UTEP, and Western Kentucky. Rice won ten games and the conference title last season, but must replace their starting quarterback and running back. Texas-San Antonio went 7-5 in just their second season of IA football last season. UTEP won two games last season and has not finished with a winning record since 2005. Western Kentucky appears to be on the upswing as a IA program, off their third consecutive winning campaign after an initial struggle transitioning to big time football. On the road in conference play, the Bulldogs travel to North Texas, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, and UAB. North Texas nearly won the division last season, but that was their first winning season in nearly a decade. Old Dominion is transitioning to IA and went 8-4 last season, but against IA teams, they were just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Idaho. Southern Miss has won just once in their past 24 games. UAB has not had a winning season since 2004, and their coach of two seasons decided he would rather be the offensive coordinator at Louisville. With some improvement on both sides of the ball, its not hard to envision Louisiana Tech winning the requisite five conference games needed to attain bowl eligibility. 

Reasons for Optimism:
Kenneth Dixon. When the Bulldogs were a scoring machine in 2012, freshman Kenneth Dixon tallied nearly 1200 yards on the ground and finished tops nationally with 27 rushing touchdowns. Despite missing the final two games of the 2013 season with a knee injury, Dixon actually averaged slightly more yards per rush (6.07) despite not quite getting to 1000 yards (finished with 917). Of course, as Louisiana Tech did not find themselves around the goalline quite as much, Dixon finished with just four rushing touchdowns. Provided he stays healthy, you can pencil Dixon in for another 1000 yards rushing.

Final Prognosis:
Conference USA is not the SEC. So despite a non-conference schedule that will do them no favors (last season's non-conference slate consisting of Army, Kansas, Lamar, and NC State was much easier) in terms of qualifying for a bowl, getting to five league wins is not out of the question. Neither the offense nor defense were particularly strong in 2013, with both ranking ninth in the league in yards per play. However, in a 16-team league, it does not take a math major to realize that is middle of the pack. If the passing game can improve at all, the Bulldogs appear to have a reliable ground game behind Kenneth Dixon, and could move into the top-third of the conference on offense. Similarly, its not hard to picture the defense seeing modest improvement. Couple that potential with a road schedule that features two of the weaker teams in the conference (Southern Miss and UAB) and a team new to IA football (Old Dominion) and a bowl game seems quite possible. I see the Bulldogs finishing with either five, six, or seven regular season wins depending on how their luck shakes out. Six wins will get them to bowl eligibility, but the Bulldogs will need seven to guarantee a bowl bid.

Even the Losers: Wake Forest

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. The fifth team we profile, is near and dear to my heart, my alma mater, Wake Forest.

Wake Forest

2013 Record: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)

Summary: After a disappointing offensive showing in 2012, the Demon Deacons revamped their offense in 2013 to include more option, harkening back to Jim Grobe's first few seasons in Winston-Salem. The season began with an expected 31-7 win against an outclassed Presbyterian team. Eight days later, the Deacons dove into conference play on a Friday night against Boston College, committed a turnover on the second offensive play, and managed under 250 yards of offense in a two touchdown loss. Returning home the following weekend, the Deacons faced Louisiana-Monroe, the mid-major upset kings from the previous season. The defense could not get off the field, allowing the Warhawks to run 104 plays in a two point loss. The Deacons righted the ship the following week against Army and then headed to Clemson where they were embarrassed 56-7; their worst loss to the Tigers since they hung 82 on a hapless Deacon squad in 1981. Credit the Deacons for not being demoralized, as they returned home to win consecutive games against NC State (their sixth straight over the Wolfpack at home) and Maryland. With a 4-3 mark, a bowl game at least seemed within the realm of possibility to even the most pessimistic Deacon fan. The next week, Wake jumped out to a 14-3 lead against undefeated Miami. The Hurricanes eventually won the game on a Duke Johnson touchdown run in the final minute. At 4-4, the Deacons headed north to face new conference foe Syracuse. Receiver Michael Campanaro was injured early in the contest and the Deacons were shut out for the third time in their last 19 games. Returning home to the friendly confines of BB&T field did not help matters against eventual national champion Florida State as the Deacons were crushed 59-3. Losers of three straight, they now needed to win out against fellow nerds Duke and Vanderbilt to have any shot at bowl eligibility. Wake jumped out to a 14-0 lead against the Blue Devils but lost by a touchdown as Duke was putting the finishing touches on a dream season. With nothing to play for but pride (and also revenge, yes definitely revenge), the Deacons traveled to Nashville in the season finale to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Deacons led in the fourth quarter, but a field goal in the final minute gave Vanderbilt the win and consigned the Deacons to a fifth consecutive losing season.

What Did the Demon Deacons Do Well?
Play defense. By the yards per play metric that we will examine later in this post, Wake Forest ranked fifth in the ACC. In a 14-team league, that is well above average. By other defensive statistics, they were also quite solid, ranking 31st nationally in yards allowed per game (366) and 38th nationally in points allowed per game (24). Senior defensive linemen Nikita Whitlock and Zach Thompson combined for 14 sacks and 30 tackles for loss, allowing the defense to keep the Deacons in games despite their woeful offense. Speaking of...

What Didn't the Demon Deacons Do Well?
Run, pass, or do anything very competently offensively. Excluding sacks, Wake Forest averaged just 3.63 yards per rush. If we do some Arthur Andersen style accounting and compare that number to every other college football team using the official NCAA statistics which do include yards lost due to sacks, the Deacons would have ranked 101st in yards per rush. Compare the Deacons on an even playing field, and their yards per rush including sacks ranked 119th nationally (2.96 per attempt) ahead of only six teams in IA football. The passing numbers are not any better. Wake Forest quarterbacks, led by Tanner Price, averaged just 5.7 yards per throw (118th nationally). In conference play, the Deacons ranked last in yards per play, accumulating a putrid 3.99 yards per snap.

The Demon Deacons Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists Wake Forest's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference Wake Forest played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Demon Deacons averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Demon Deacons allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

After qualifying for three bowl games in a four-season span, including an unthinkable conference title in 2006, Wake Forest cratered in 2010, as the core of those teams departed. Perhaps not surprisingly, no Deacon was drafted in 2011, the first time since 2004 that no Wake Forest player was selected. After that one season blip, the Deacons returned to their salty, irritating selves. Statistically, they were not a great team, ranking eighth in the ACC in both yards per play and Adjusted Pythagorean Record in 2011, but they were competitive and the bounces went their way (at least in conference play), where they won four of five one-score games. Ironically, the one close conference game they lost cost them a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Perhaps if the Deacons had scheduled like other BCS-conference teams that season (playing as many Sun Belt and MAC schools as they could fit on the schedule), they could have ended the year in the rankings. Alas, in three of their four non-conference games, they took on BCS-conference teams (Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Vanderbilt), losing all three and with a loss to Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl, endured another losing season. Four players from that season, including wide receiver Chris Givens, who left a year early, were selected in the draft. Without Givens to stretch the field in 2012, the offense sank, and offset marginal improvement by the defense. Needing a win in one of their final three games to attain bowl eligibility, the Deacons lost those final three contests by a combined 103 points and finished 5-7. The shift to a more option-based attach did not work in 2013, as the offense sunk even further while the defense held steady and the Jim Grobe era ended with a whimper as the Deacons fell to 4-8. When accessing Grobe's legacy in Winston-Salem, the cynic might point out the Deacons suffered five consecutive losing seasons at the end of his tenure. However, despite the struggles, Wake did play in a bowl game in one of those seasons, and twice missed out on bowl eligibility by just a single game. In his 13 seasons at the helm, the Deacons suffered only one awful season (2010). Under his predecessor Jim Caldwell, who actually was the head coach in a Super Bowl, the Deacons were awful five times in only eight seasons.

The 2014 Schedule:
The good news for Wake Forest fans is the Deacons do not play any BCS-conference teams in the non-conference portion of their schedule. The bad news is they are still unlikely to roll through it undefeated. Wake Forest begins the year with a road trip to Monroe, Louisiana to face a team that beat them in Winston-Salem last season. By no means is this game an assured loss, but it is likely close to a toss-up at best. The Deacons follow that up with an almost certain win against Gardner-Webb from IAA before heading west again to face one of the country's stronger mid-major teams, Utah State. The Aggies lost five games last season, but many statistical ratings, including those used by Jeff Sagarin, had them in the 40. A win here by the Deacons would be an upset indeed. The Deacons conclude their non-conference slate by hosting Army. While Wake has played and beaten Army three times in the past seven season, with each win coming by double-digits, an academy than runs the triple-option is not to be taken lightly. Realistically, the best Wake fans can hope for is a 3-1 non-conference record, and 2-2 would not be altogether surprising. Once conference play begins, Wake must travel to Florida State, Louisville, NC State, and Duke. Despite beating the Seminoles as recently as 2011, recent returns seem to indicate it will be quite sometime before Wake knocks off the Seminoles again. All things considered, as far as bowl hopes go, this game may as well be on the road, as the Deacons are unlikely to win in any venue. Despite the loss of Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville should once again be a quality team, so the Deacons appear unlikely to win the rematch of the 2006 Orange Bowl. While NC State was very bad last season, the Deacons have won in Raleigh just twice in my lifetime. After losing twelve straight games in the series, Duke has taken the last two against the Deacons and the tide may have turned in the in-state rivalry. A 1-3 road conference mark is probably the best case scenario for Wake Forest fans, which means the Deacons will have to earn their bowl trip at home. The Deacons play Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Syracuse in their home conference games. Clemson has not lost to Wake Forest since 2008 and won their past two trips to Winston-Salem by 20 and 29 points respectively. The Tigers must replace several playmakers on offense, but a Wake win here would be quite a surprise. Virginia Tech has beaten the Deacons in their four clashes as conference foes (with three of the games coming in Winston-Salem). Each one save the first (in 2004) has come by double-digits. A win over the Hokies, even at home would likewise be a stunning result. That leaves Boston College and Syracuse as the most likely Wake Forest home conference wins. While the Deacons lost to both teams last season, neither team is on the level of Clemson or Virginia Tech, so a sweep of those two games is perfectly conceivable.

Reasons for Optimism:
Dave Clawson. While it is indeed a sad day that Jim Grobe is no longer the head football coach at Wake Forest, perhaps some new blood was needed. While hiring a new coach is always a crapshoot, Wake did about as well as they possibly could, aside from exhuming and reanimating the corpse of Peahead Walker, in hiring Grobe's replacement. Clawson has (rebuilding and winning) head coaching experience at the IAA level (Fordham and Richmond, which also happen to be private schools) and the mid-major level of IA (Bowling Green). Perhaps more importantly, he was not a sexy flavor of the month coach who spent just a one season or two as a mid-major head coach before being handed the keys to a BCS-conference program, nor was he a mid-major coach who harvested the fruits of his predecessor's toil. Clawson stayed at Bowling Green for five seasons, even enduring horrendous regression is his second season before steadying the program and leading the Falcons to their first conference title since 1992. Don't expect miracles in his first season, but the Deacons appear to be in competent hands.

Final Prognosis:
The Deacons were quite good on defense last season. Unfortunately, two of the biggest reasons for that success, Nikita Whitlock and Zach Thompson will be gone, and perhaps plying their trade in the NFL. Defensive back, and potential future pro, Merrill Noel will return for his senior campaign giving the Deacons some help in the secondary. Still, its hard to see the defense improving on last season's numbers. Meanwhile, the offense despite the loss of leading receiver, Michael Campanaro, who may also find himself on a pro roster, and quarterback Tanner Price, the offense has nowhere to go, but up.Checking the schedule, if the Deacons do manage a 3-1 mark in non-conference play, that would mean they would need to scrounge up three ACC wins to get to bowl eligibility. Sweeping home games against Boston College and Syracuse would then be paramount. Assuming home losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech, the Deacons would need to steal a road win against either Florida State, Louisville, NC State, or Duke. I think all those things are a little too much to ask. Pencil Wake in for a 5-7 mark, but continued optimism as fans look toward the 2015 season.

Even the Losers: West Virginia

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. The fourth team we profile is West Virginia.

West Virginia

2013 Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

Summary: West Virginia began the year rather inauspiciously, narrowly edging IAA William and Mary by a touchdown in the season opener. The competition ratcheted up rather quickly, as the Mountaineers traveled to Norman to challenge Oklahoma in the season's second game. The Mountaineers acquitted themselves rather well as a large underdog, losing by just nine. They followed that up with an expected blowout of IA neophyte Georgia State. Then in their final non-conference game, the Mountaineers were shut out by Maryland 38-0. That marked their first loss to the Terrapins since the 2003 season, when the Terps beat them twice. In their next game, once again facing a team from the state of Oklahoma, the Mountaineers were huge underdogs against the Cowboys from Stillwater. In a result that ranks as one of the season's biggest upsets, West Virginia knocked off Oklahoma State. Standing 3-2 after five games, the Mountaineers appeared at worst to be headed to a twelfth consecutive bowl game. That optimism was destroyed in short order. Baylor shredded their defense for 73 points in the next game, followed by Texas Tech and Kansas State combining for 72 points of their own. Off a three game skid, the Mountaineers pulled another huge upset, winning at TCU. After an overtime home loss to Texas, Kansas and Iowa State were the final two teams remaining on the schedule. A win in both would not guarantee a bowl, but would make West Virginia bowl eligible. First up was a trip to Kansas to face a Jayhawk team reeling from 27 consecutive conference losses. West Virginia allowed Kansas to score 31 unanswered points, and gave the Jayhawks their first Big 12 win since 2010 and their fist double-digit conference win since 2008! Wanting their fans to be even more depressed around the holidays, the Mountaineers proceeded to blow a 24-point lead in the season finale against Iowa State, consigning them to their first losing season since 2001. If you had told Mountaineer fans before the season started that they would beat both Oklahoma State and TCU, many would have probably assumed they were in for a special season. Of course, you probably would have said that with a maniacal laugh (you big jerk), so they would know something was afoot.

What Did the Mountaineers Do Well?
This is a tough one as West Virginia was either mediocre or bad on both sides of the ball in 2013. They did rank thirteenth in punting average with Nick O'Toole averaging over 44 yards per kick. Of course, O'Toole had plenty of practice, as the Mountaineers punted 6.1 times per game after punting just 4.3 and 3.5 times per game in Dana Holgorsen's first two seasons.

What Didn't the Mountaineers Do Well?
The Mountaineers did not do a lot well in 2013, so there a lot of areas to choose from. How about, protect the football? West Virginia committed 32 turnovers in 2013. Only five teams (Texas Tech, Hawaii, Tulsa, Washington State, and Southern Miss) committed more. The Mountaineers committed at least one turnover in each game, and in a third of their games committed at least four. On the bight side, when they did not commit at least four turnovers, they had a 4-4 record.

The Mountaineers Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists West Virginia's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference West Virginia played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Mountaineers averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Mountaineers allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

Did you forget how dominant the 2010 West Virginia defense was? Under the late Bill Stewart, the Mountaineers defense featured seven players that would be drafted over the next two years including first round pick Bruce Irvin. Current coach Dana Holgorsen was hired to be the offensive coordinator and coach in waiting for the 2011 season, but wound up getting the big job one season early after Stewart resigned. His debut was superb. The offensive guru led the Mountaineers to the best offense in the Big East, and perhaps more importantly, the conference championship. In the Orange Bowl, the Mountaineers obliterated Clemson and set up expectations for an even better encore in the Big 12. The Mountaineers reeled off five consecutive victories to begin the 2012 campaign, and rose as to number five in the AP Poll. However, even during the hot start, the defense was an obvious liability, giving up 63 and 45 points in wins, yes I wrote wins, over Baylor and Texas. The offense, led by future high draft picks Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey managed to hold serve early, but could not compensate for the defensive ineptitude as the season wore on. The Mountaineers lost five of their last seven regular season games, allowing over 43 points per game to their Big 12 conference mates! Then, in a bowl clash with former conference rival Syracuse, the Mountaineers completed their collapse with a 24-point loss in New York City. Smith, Austin, and Bailey were all drafted in the fist three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft, and the Mountaineers struggled to replace them. Unfortunately, the defense remained one of the worst in the Big 12, and the Mountaineers endured the indignity of a losing season. 

The 2014 Schedule:
The Mountaineers have an unenviable first game as they take on Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Following that almost assured loss, the Mountaineers should have a chance to lick their wounds as they host IAA Towson the following week. The Tigers are certainly a formidable foe, beating Connecticut in their opener last season and playing for the IAA Championship just six weeks ago. However, West Virginia can reasonably expect to win that game. What follows, is perhaps the most important game of the season for West Virginia, a rematch with Maryland in College Park. If they can beat the Terrapins, they will need just four conference wins to attain bowl eligibility. Lose here, and a bowl game may be out of reach. In league play, the Mountaineers do benefit from five home games. For the most part however, they should be very challenging with Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU all coming to Morgantown. Its not unthinkable for the Mountaineers to be favored in only one of those games (Kansas). Meanwhile, their four road trips come against Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech. Again, the Mountaineers may well be favored in only one of those games (Iowa State) and depending on how the season turns out (the Iowa State game is once again the finale), they could be underdogs in all four.

Reasons for Optimism:
Holgorsen's reputation as an offensive guru. In stints at Texas Tech, Houston, and Oklahoma State (from 2007 through 2010) as an offensive coordinator before coming to Morgantown, Holgorsen's teams all averaged at least 40 points per game each season. In his first two seasons at Morgantown, his teams averaged 37.6 and 39.5 points per game respectively. The Mountaineers lost three great offensive skill position players from the 2012 team. We'll give Holgorsen a mulligan. In 2013, no quarterback emerged as a star. Obviously, Holgorsen must shoulder a great deal of that blame since he determines who to recruit and then who to play. However, based on his track record, its clear he can coax points out of an offense. Barring some unforeseen defensive reinforcements, the offense will once again be forced to carry West Virginia on their sojourn through the Big 12. Remember, despite their lack of explosiveness, the Mountaineers still ranked sixth in the Big 12 in yards per play. With improved quarterback play, it wouldn't be a shock to see them move a little closer towards the top of the conference in that department.

Final Prognosis:
Playing nine conference games, especially in a ten team league is commendable and results in a true league champion. However, it is not a recipe for getting a middling team to bowl eligibility. The Big 12 is deep, and outside of Kansas, their are no gimmes on the conference schedule. With Alabama on the schedule, the best a West Virginia fan can hope for is a 2-1 mark in non-conference action. With that in mind, I think the Mountaineers will beat Kansas at home, and pull off one home upset from the quartet of Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU. I also think they win one of their road conference games, though it may not be against Iowa State. Add it all up, and the Mountaineers will top out at five wins in 2014, and have Dana Holgorsen squarely on the hot seat as the offseason arrives.

Even the Losers: South Florida

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. Our third team we feature is South Florida.

South Florida

2013 Record: 2-10 (2-6 American)

Summary: Under new head coach Willie Taggart, the Bulls began the season rather inauspiciously, losing to IA McNeese State, by 32 points. They followed that up with an expected road loss at Michigan State before coming home and losing by 18 points to 'little brother' Florida Atlantic. In their final non-conference game, Miami beat them by four touchdowns. Just when it looked like the Bulls would struggle to win any games in the American Athletic Conference, the Bulls found less conventional ways to score. They returned a block field goal and a fumble against Cincinnati and held on for a six point win. They returned another fumble for a score the following week against Connecticut in a three point win. After their first two league games, the Bulls stood 2-0 with zero offensive touchdowns. They Bulls proceeded to lose their final six league contests with each coming by at least ten points save for an inexplicable close loss to eventual league champ and Fiesta Bowl winner UCF.

What Did the Bulls Do Well?
The Bulls were actually quite competent on defense in 2013. Though they allowed over 28 points per game (tied for 74th nationally), this was primarily due to the fact that the offense continually put the defense in unenviable positions with their general ineptitude. Opposing defenses also scored eight touchdowns on returns (five interception and three fumble) against the woeful offense. As a point of reference, the offense managed just eleven touchdowns of their own all season. In terms of yards allowed per game, the Bulls ranked 21st nationally, permitting an average of 351 per contest. I don't think they were quite that good, but they did rank a respectable fifth in the American in both yards allowed per play and touchdowns allowed.

What Didn't the Bulls Do Well?
It has been said many times, in many ways, but I'll say it again, the Bulls were terrible at all facets of offense. The Bulls scored just eleven offensive touchdowns in twelve games (with three coming in the first game against McNeese State). That means they managed just offensive eight touchdowns in their last eleven games. The eleven offensive touchdowns they managed is the lowest by any IA team since at least 2006. The Bulls accrued just 154 first downs in 2013, the lowest in the nation. If you ever want to see a clinic on how not to play offensive football, look no further than the 2013 Bulls.

The Bulls Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists South Florida's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference South Florida played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Bulls averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Bulls allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

In 2010, South Florida, reeling from the player abuse scandal under former coach Jim Leavitt, hired an established mid-major coach, Skip Holtz, to lead their program. After a 3-3 start, the Bulls won five of their final seven games, including a bowl upset over Clemson and appeared to be headed for if not great, at least good things under the younger Holtz. The Bulls did lose three players from that team in the 2011 NFL Draft, but opened the 2011 season 4-0. Included in the early season highlights, was a win at Notre Dame Stadium. However, after the 4-0 start, the fates conspired against the Bulls. They won just once the rest of the season, with five of the losses coming by six points or fewer, and four coming by exactly three points. Despite improved statistical numbers, the Bulls caught no breaks and finished with their first losing season since 2004 and just the second in the school's short history. All indicators pointed toward 2012 being a bounce-back year, but the Bulls regressed again losing nine of their final ten games after a 2-0 start. Skip Holtz was canned and Willie Taggart was brought in to lead the Bulls back to respectability. Unfortunately for Taggart, quarterback B.J. Daniels, who played for what seemed like three presidential cycles, exhausted his eligibility, and no competent quarterbacks emerged. The offense endured one of the worst seasons in recent memory, and well, here we stand with South Florida coming off three consecutive losing seasons and sporting a 6-26 mark since opening 2011 4-0.  

The 2014 Schedule:
While we do not yet know the eight opponents South Florida will face from the American, we do know the identity of their four non-conference foes. South Florida opens the season at home against Western Carolina. While the Bulls did lose in grisly fashion to McNeese State last season, Western Carolina is a bad IAA team, finishing 2-10 last year and not winning more than three games in any season since 2005. A win here is all but assured. The Bulls also host Maryland and NC State in non-conference action. Maryland qualified for a bowl game last season, but is hardly an elite program. Meanwhile, NC State went winless in the ACC last year. The Bulls should be competitive in both contests and a sweep would not be out of the question. Their final non-conference game is a trip to Madison to face the Badgers of Wisconsin. This one will be infinitely more difficult to win. Realistically, South Florida fans should expect nothing worse than a split of their non-conference games, and a 3-1 mark should not raise many eyebrows. With at least two wins banked, the Bulls would just need to break even in the American to qualify for a bowl, a task that is not impossible considering the American is more like Conference USA's big brother.

Reasons for Optimism:
Willie Taggart and regression (progression) to the mean. There is no denying South Florida has a long way to go, particularly on offense, to return to the postseason. However, Taggart has already engineered one gigantic turnaround in his career.

In his first season at Western Kentucky, the Hilltoppers were IA neophytes with a very bad offense. The Hilltoppers ranked last in the Sun Belt in yards per play (though they were a more respectable sixth in touchdowns). In Taggart's second season, the Hilltoppers moved all the way up to third in the Sun Belt in yards per play and second in touchdowns. The team went 7-1 in the league and were bowl eligible for the first time (though they were snubbed in the postseason). Last season South Florida was historically bad on offense, at least in regards to scoring touchdowns. They struggled to move the ball, but realistically could have been expected to score three or four more touchdowns in 2013. Like historically great performances, historically poor performances are hard to repeat. Thankfully, for teams like South Florida, regression pulls both ways. Even with minimal offensive improvement, the Bulls can expect to score between twice and three times as many touchdowns in 2014.

Final Prognosis:
Believe it or not, the pieces are in place for a return to the postseason for South Florida. The Bulls experienced a lot of growing pains in Willie Taggart's fist season, but he has far more resources at his disposal than at his previous stop at Western Kentucky. The offense simply cannot be as bad as it was last season, opposing defenses cannot score as many times off of returns, and the conference itself gets a little bit weaker. I wouldn't place a large sum of money on South Florida winning the American in 2014, but a return to respectability seems likely.

Even the Losers: Tulsa

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. Our second team we evaluate will be the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

Tulsa

2013 Record: 3-9 (2-6 Conference USA)

Summary: Coming off a Conference USA title and a school record eleven wins, Tulsa was the preseason favorite in the western division of Conference USA. The Golden Hurricane opened with a blowout loss at eventual MAC-champ Bowling Green. They rebounded the following weekend and gave what was in hindsight, likely their best performance of the year in a 30-27 win over eventual bowl winner Colorado State. After an expected loss at Oklahoma, Tulsa lost at home by 17 points to an Iowa State team that finished just 3-9. Beginning conference play with all their goals still firmly in front of them, Tulsa lost a close home game to Rice before beating UTEP to move to 1-1 in league play. Tulsa would win just a single game the rest of the way, with only one of their defeats coming by fewer than eleven points. Their three wins marked the fewest for the program since they finished 1-11 in 2002.

What Did the Golden Hurricane Do Well?
Tulsa did not do a whole lot well in 2013, but we'll go with 'win on the road'. At least as compared to how they performed at home. Since joining Conference USA in 2005, through the 2012 season, Tulsa was a sterling 26-6 versus conference foes at home. Only three of their six losses came by double digits. In 2013, they finished 0-4 at home against conference foes, and three of their four losses came by double digits. Tulsa did win half of their road games however, beating both UTEP and Louisiana Tech away from the friendly confines. Still, compared to their 21-11 conference road record from 2005-2012, this was a far cry from their usual performance.

What Didn't the Golden Hurricane Do Well?
As mentioned earlier, the Golden Hurricane didn't do a lot well, but we'll give the nod to the defense, which imploded late in the season. The Golden Hurricane allowed 30 points or more eight times in 2013, including four times in their final five games. Teams particularly enjoyed gashing the Golden Hurricane on the ground where opponents averaged 200 yards per game (97th nationally) and 4.62 yards per rush (88th nationally). That marked the first time Tulsa allowed more than four yards per rush since 2007.

The Golden Hurricane Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists Tulsa's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference Tulsa played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Golden Hurricane averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Golden Hurricane allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

Among mid-major programs Tulsa has probably done the most with the least over the past four seasons. From 2010 through 2012, the Golden Hurricane went 20-4 in Conference USA, 29-11 overall, and won the league title in 2012. The Golden Hurricane accomplished all this with only one player from those three teams being drafted. For the curious, it was tight end Charles Clay who was picked in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. The nomad Todd Graham coached the Hurricanes in 2010 before giving way to former high school coach Bill Blankenship in 2011. Graham's 2010 team won games with a powerful offense led by quarterback G.J. Kinne. Kinne returned for his senior campaign in 2011, and with an improved defense, the Golden Hurricane entered the final week of the regular season unbeaten in league play. If not for an unusually strong Conference USA (Southern Miss and Houston finished the 2011 season in the top 20 of the AP Poll), Tulsa may well have won two league titles in a row. Sans Kinne in 2012, the offense shifted even more to a run-based attack behind Trey Watts (son of Oklahoma legend J.C. Watts), Ja'Terian Douglas, and Alex Singleton who combined to rush for 34 touchdowns in their championship year. Nebraska transfer Cody Green was limited as a passer, especially compared to Kinne, but he did account for 21 total touchdowns himself. With Watts, Douglas, and Green returning in 2013, the offense seemed destined to stay near the top of Conference USA. However, the loss of three starters on the line limited the running game and Green regressed as passer. When Green was injured midway through the season, redshirt freshman Dane Evans replaced him and proceeded to complete just 43% of his passes while throwing ten interceptions and averaging under five yards per pass attempt. As the offense struggled, the defense also faltered. While the Golden Hurricane did not lose any NFL caliber talent from the 2012 team, they did lose eight starters from the best defensive unit in Conference USA, including their four leading sack generators (30 and half combined from the four in question in 2012) from a defense that netted 51 total sacks. The net result was a lost season for Tulsa and a question as to whether 2013 was a one-year blip on the radar (like 2009 was for Graham) or a sign of things to come.

The 2014 Schedule:
Tulsa moves to the American Athletic Conference in 2014, which represents a slight step up in competition from Conference USA, but will never be confused with the SEC West. Their league schedule has not yet been formulated, but we do know the four teams they will face outside the conference. The Golden Hurricane travel to Colorado State and Florida Atlantic. The Rams from Colorado State appear to be on the upswing, and they nearly beat Tulsa last season, so a road win in Fort Collins seems unlikely. Florida Atlantic was a solid 6-6 last season despite losing their coach to a drug scandal. The Owls were much better than their record, losing three conference games by a touchdown or less, and will represent a real challenge for Tulsa particularly at home. In other non-conference action, Tulsa hosts in-state foe Oklahoma and IA neophyte Texas State. Facing Oklahoma, even at home is a longshot. Texas State went 6-6 last season, but was not as good as their record and Tulsa should be expected to win at home. Realistically, a split in non-conference play is probably the best Tulsa can hope for in 2014, with a 1-3 mark a distinct possibility.

Reasons for Optimism:
A recent track record and youth. Prior to their disappointing 2013 campaign, Tulsa went to bowl games in seven of eight seasons from 2005 through 2012. That's one of the best runs for any mid-major over that span. Secondly, while the Golden Hurricane were not particularly good on defense in 2013, they were pretty young. Of their top ten tacklers, only three were seniors and four were either freshmen or sophomores. Even incremental improvement could move the Golden Hurricane to the middle of the pack in their new conference.

Final Prognosis:
2014 will serve as a referendum for the Bill Blankenship era at Tulsa. If the Golden Hurricane endure another losing season, he will likely be coaching for his job in 2015. However, if he returns the Golden Hurricane to the postseason, 2013 will likely be seen as an aberration. Keep in mind that while Tulsa has been a strong mid-major for a decade, winning at one of the smallest IA schools is no easy task. The Golden Hurricane endured eleven consecutive losing seasons before Steve Kragthorpe revitalized the program in 2003. Here's another facet to consider. From 2005 through 2012, 20 mid-major teams saw their conference record drop by at least four games from one season to the next (remember Tulsa finished five games worse in league play in 2013 than they did in 2012). Of those 20 teams, 16 improved their league record by at least one game the following season. Ten saw their league record improve by at least two games, and no team saw their conference record get worse. On average, the teams improved by 1.95 games in the conference standings the next season with the biggest improvements coming from Memphis in 2007 and Middle Tennessee State in 2012 (five games). Improvement by Tulsa is a given in 2014, but will they improve enough to get to a bowl game? Based on their non-conference slate, the Golden Hurricane need to finish at least 4-4 or possibly 5-3 in the American to be bowl eligible. I think they will finish on the cusp of postseason play with either five, six, seven regular season wins.

Even the Losers: Temple

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. We'll begin our sojourn with Temple, a team from the American Athletic Conference.

Temple

2013 Record: 2-10 (1-7 American Athletic Conference)

Summary: The Owls won just two games in 2013, losing their first six games under new coach Matt Rhule. Three of their ten losses came to teams that finished the season ranked in the AP Poll (Notre Dame, Louisville, and UCF). However, they also lost to Idaho (the Vandals lone win on the season) and Fordham (IAA playoff team, but a IAA team nonetheless).

What Did the Owls Do Well?
Throw the football. Collectively, the Owls ranked just 60th in yards per pass attempt averaging 7.2 yards per throw. However, freshman quarterback P.J. Walker averaged 8.2 yards per throw on the year. Walker did not see much action in the first four games, netting just three pass attempts, but he became the full-time start over the final two thirds of the season and shined.

What Didn't the Owls Do Well?
Finish and play defense. Temple finished 0-5 in games decided by one score. In four of those games, the Owls held a lead at some point during the fourth quarter. Against Fordham, they led by six in the fourth, but the Rams scored a touchdown with four seconds left to even the games, and won on the ensuing extra point. Against Rutgers, the Owls led by four in the fourth, but allowed Rutgers to convert a fourth and ten play into a touchdown with 35 second left. Against eventual Fiesta Bowl winner UCF, the Owls led by seven in the fourth, but the Knights evened the game with just over a minute left and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired. Against Connecticut, the Owls led 21-0 at the half, but did not score again for the rest of the game in a seven point defeat. While the final score was not close, the Owls also blew a 21-point first half and 14-point halftime lead in a double-digit defeat against SMU. The Owls lost these big leads primarily because their defense was horrendous. Opponents averaged nearly 30 points per game against the Owls and a robust 6.40 yards per play (101st nationally).

The Owls Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists Temple's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference Temple played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Owls averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Owls allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

In 2010 and 2011, the Temple Owls were a legitimately strong mid-major team, particularly on defense. In particular, the 2010 team featured four future NFL players on defense, including first round draft pick Muhammad Wilkerson. In the 2011 and 2012 NFL drafts, the Owls had five players selected. Losing all that talent caused a tremendous drop off in Steve Addazio's second season. Perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, Addazio left after 2012 to become coach of Boston College. Into that tough situation stepped Matt Rhule, a young coach who got in on the ground floor when Al Golden began rebuilding the Temple program in 2006. After overachieving in 2012 based on their peripheral numbers, the Owls underachieved last season, finishing more than two and a half games below where one would have expected based on their touchdowns scored and allowed.

The 2014 Schedule:
The ins and out of their conference schedule are not fully known yet, but we do know who the Owls will flap against in non-conference action. The Owls travel to Vanderbilt and Penn State in their James Franklin tour, and host Navy and Delaware State (IAA). Realistically, the Owls can expect to beat Delaware State and compete with Navy. Their road trips to Nashville and State College will more than likely result in losses. In conference play, the American will lose both Louisville and Rutgers while adding East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa. The American is a mid-major conference without an easily identifiable overlord, meaning their are no definitive losses on the schedule for the Owls. However, there is also no punching bag guaranteed to give the Owls a victory. All in all, the American will probably be a little weaker than last season with the exodus of Louisville and the attrition at reigning champ Central Florida.

Reasons for Optimism:
P.J. Walker and a little bit of luck. Walker's twenty passing touchdowns (in just eight plus games) marked the most by a Temple quarterback since Henry Burris threw 21 in 1994! In fact, as a team, the Owls threw just 21 touchdown passes in 2011 and 2012 combined. I've already harped on the Owls struggles in close games and their poor record in relation to their APR. Some regression in clutch situations could add a few wins to their ledger in 2014.

Final Prognosis:
Since teams began playing twelve games in 2006, 45 have finished the regular season with a 2-10 record. Fourteen of those teams have been bowl eligible the next season (every eligible team did not participate in a bowl). That's over 30%! For mid-majors, the results are a little more bearish, as seven of 31 (23%) have been bowl eligible the next season. No, the 2014 Temple team will not have a parade thrown in their honor, but I think their bowl odds are a little higher than one in three.

Bowl Preview: Part IV

The past two weeks have flown by. Unfortunately, there are only five more games left in this college football season. Enjoy them while you can, August is a long way away.

Discover Orange Bowl
Ohio State vs Clemson
Line: Ohio State -3
The Clemson Tigers return to the scene of one of their most infamous and grisly defeats on Friday night. This is an interesting time for Clemson football, as the Tigers have won at least ten games in each of the past three seasons, hoisted the ACC crown two years ago, and will finish in the top-25 for the fourth time in five full seasons under Dabo Swinney. However, they have also lost five consecutive games to in-state rival South Carolina and appear to have ceded control of the Atlantic Division to an old power. While they were clearly inferior to Florida State, Clemson was also clearly the second best team in the ACC in 2013. Behind senior quarterback Tajh Boyd, the receiving acumen of Sammy Watkins, and a fast paced offense, the Tigers ranked third in the ACC in yards per play. The defense also played well, ranking fourth in the conference in yards per play allowed. Outside of the Seminoles, Clemson won each of their conference games by ten points, and if not for a turnover implosion against South Carolina, may have beaten the Gamecocks in Columbia. The Tigers will face an Ohio State team also coming off a disappointing loss. With the national championship in their sights, the Buckeyes stumbled against an elite Michigan State team in the Big 10 Championship Game. The loss broke a 24-game winning streak for the Buckeyes and was their first under Urban Meyer. In the regular season, Ohio State was nigh unstoppable on offense, ranking first in the Big 10 by averaging a ridiculous 7.55 yards per play! Quarterback Braxton Miller and running back Carlos Hyde both rushed for over 1000 yards and collectively the team averaged over seven yards per carry. Defensively, the Buckeyes were not quite as strong, ranking fifth in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed. However, they were adept at making plays in the backfield, garnering 40 sacks and 89 tackles for loss. Those numbers ranked sixth and 26th respectively in the nation. Methinks this will be a pretty high-scoring affair, and if Ohio State is motivated, they should win rather easily here.


AT&T Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs Missouri
Line: Oklahoma State -1
These former conference mates (first in the Big 8 and later in the Big 12) face each other for the first time since 2011, when Oklahoma State beat Missouri by three touchdowns on their homefield. Both schools enter this game off losses that cost them shots at BCS bowl. For Missouri, the loss was particularly galling, as it potentially cost them a shot at the national title. Until they were eviscerated by Auburn's running game, the Tigers held up reasonably well on the defensive side of the ball in SEC play, ranking second in yards allowed per play. Defensive end Michael Sam was a mainstay in opposing backfields, racking up ten and a half sacks and eighteen tackles for loss. The Tigers also ranked a respectable fourth in the conference in yards per play. Quarterback James Franklin and his backup Maty Mauk both averaged 8.1 yards per throw, though they went about accumulating those numbers very differently. Franklin completed nearly two thirds of his passes, while Mauk was a more boom or bust passer, registering a completion rate of just 51.2%. The Tigers will look to lasso the Cowboys for the first time since 2005, Mike Gundy's first year at the school. The Cowboys won at least ten games for the third time in the past four seasons, but their last second loss to archrival Oklahoma not only denied them a Big 12 title, but also dropped them out of the BCS bowl picture altogether. The Cowboys were not as explosive on offense as they have been in the past, although they still ranked third in the Big 12 in yards per play. The real story was their defense which finished first in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. The Cowboys don't have a fearsome pass rush, generating just 22 sacks all season (tied for 79th nationally), but they limit the big plays and force turnovers (30 on the season which ranks seventh nationally). This should be a very competitive game, and there does not appear to be a great deal of value on either side of the line. Sit back and enjoy this one, but don't make any plays.



BBVA Compass Bowl
Vanderbilt vs Houston
Line: Vanderbilt -3
To say James Franklin has been a little bit successful at Vanderbilt is a massive understatement. The Commodores, a perennial cellar dweller have qualified for three consecutive bowl, and this season beat their former east bullies Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee with the last two coming on the homefields of the Gators and Vols respectively. The Tennessee win had to be extra special, as it kept the Volunteers out of a bowl game for the third straight season. Despite the presence of Jordan Matthews, an NFL ready wide receiver, Vandy ranked just twelfth in the SEC in yards per play. The real strength of this team was the defense which ranked an impressive fourth in the SEC in yards per play allowed. The defense also forced 27 turnovers, a number that ranked 21st in the nation. The Commodores will face a Houston team that was also quite adept at forcing turnovers. The Cougars rebounded from a losing season by forcing a national best 40 turnovers for an insane turnover margin of +25. Overall, the defense ranked second in the American Athletic Conference in yards per play allowed. Offensively, Houston turned the reigns to freshman quarterback John O'Korn. O'Korn threw 26 touchdown passes on the year and completed nearly 60% of his throws. However, the Cougars finished a rather pedestrian sixth in the American in yards per play. The team was not able to run the ball effectively, particularly late in the year when they managed just 3.16 yards per carry over their final five games. While Houston was powered by an unsustainable turnover margin, they were also a little unlucky in 2013, losing four games by seven points or less. Houston should be sufficiently motivated in this matchup against the SEC. Vanderbilt is a quality team, but this spread should be closer to a pick em. Place a small wager on Houston on the moneyline.



GoDaddy Bowl
Ball State vs Arkansas State
Line: Ball State -7.5
The Cardinals from Ball State represent the MAC's last chance to nab a bowl win in 2013. Buffalo, Ohio, Bowling Green, and Northern Illinois all lost their respective bowl games. For Ball State, the period between their regular season finale against Miami of Ohio and their bowl clash with the Red Wolves had to have been filled with trepidation. Yet, the Cardinals did not lose their outstanding coach Pete Lembo to a higher profile gig. The Cardinals have improved their win total each season under Lembo, and now will look to win their first ever bowl game in school history. The Cardinals are led by their high-powered offense which ranked third in the MAC in yards per play. Senior quarterback Keith Wenning threw 34 touchdown passes against just six interceptions. Two of his receivers, Willie Snead and Jordan Williams, gained over 1000 yards through the air, and with a great performance in the bowl, senior wideout Jamill Smith could join them (currently has 855 yards). The offensive line did a great job protecting Wenning as well, allowing just fourteen sacks on the year despite averaging nearly 40 pass attempts per game. The Cardinals will take on an Arkansas State team playing in their third consecutive Go Daddy Bowl. Unfortunately for the Red Wolves, their success has cost them yet another head coach. In 2011, Arkansas State played in just their second ever bowl under head coach Hugh Freeze. He left for the Ole Miss job. Last season, Gus Malzahn took the Red Wolves back to the postseason and he parlayed that into the Auburn job. This season, Bryan Harsin returned the Red Wolves to the postseason, and he is now the head coach at Boise State. John Thompson, the team's defensive coordinator will serve as the interim head coach in this game. While the Red Wolves won at least a share of their third consecutive Sun Belt title, they were hardly the imposing force they were under Freeze and Malzahn. In 2011, the Red Wolves finished 8-0 in the league and won five of their league games by double-digits. Last season, they went 7-1 in the Sun Belt, and won five by double-digits. This season, in a weaker Sun Belt, they went 5-2, but only two of their wins came by double-digits. In fact, on the year, Arkansas State was actually outperformed on a per-play basis by their conference mates. They ranked just seventh in the eight team league in yards per play and fifth in yards per play allowed. With the coaching upheaval and the pedestrian per play numbers they put up, its hard to see the Red Wolves winning here. Ball State should get their first bowl win and cover this number.


Vizio BCS National Championship
Florida State vs Auburn
Line: Florida State -8.5
The final BCS National Championship game features the team that played in the first three (though they were still Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls respectively at that time). In Jimbo Fisher's fourth season, Florida State ran roughshod over the ACC, winning every game by at least fourteen points, holding seven opponents to one offensive touchdown or less, and dominating the yards per play metric. The Seminoles ranked first in the ACC in yards per play behind the eventual Heisman winner Jameis Winston. Winston averaged an absurd 10.9 yards per pass (first in the nation) and also rushed for nearly 200 yards. Defensively, the Seminoles were also top notch, ranking first in the ACC in yards per play allowed. Only Boston College and Pittsburgh averaged more than five yards per play against the Seminoles, meaning no team reached that threshold since late September. The Seminoles will face a Cinderella opponent in the title game (as much as an SEC team can be called a Cinderella). Auburn has enjoyed a rather up and down past few seasons, winning the national title behind Cam Newton in 2010, regressing yet still winning a bowl in 2011, and crashing hard last season. They canned Gene Chizik and hired the mastermind behind their 2010 success, Gus Malzahn. The Tigers coalesced on offense as the season progressed, won all the close ones, and enjoyed a few sublime plays to qualify for the SEC Championship Game where they shredded a fine Missouri team. For the year, Auburn ranked just fifth in the SEC in yards per play, but they have improved as of late. In their first three SEC games, the Tigers averaged 5.78 yards per play. Over their final five conference games, the Tigers have averaged 6.87 yards per play. Then in the title game against Missouri, they averaged nearly eight yards per play. Auburn will need to score a great deal against the Seminoles because their defense ranked eleventh in the SEC in yards per play allowed, and it did not show substantial improvement as the year progressed (the Tigers allowed over seven yards per play to Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri in their final three games versus SEC foes). Stranger things have happened in title games (Florida's seismic of Ohio State in 2006 springs to mind), but nothing Auburn has done all year indicates they will be able to stop the Seminole offense. Florida State won't shut Auburn down either, but they should should get enough stops to cover this number.

Bowl Preview: Part III

Part III of the illustrious bowl preview takes us through the New Year's Eve, New Year's Day, and Sugar Bowl games. Enjoy.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Arizona vs Boston College
Line: Arizona -7.5
Boston College returns to the postseason after a two-year hiatus. The Eagles were bowl mainstays since the late-90's, first under Tom O'Brien and then under Jeff Jagodzinski, but the program wilted under the guidance of Frank Spaziani. In keeping their arcane tradition of hiring coaches who last names end in vowels, the Eagles tabbed Steve Addazio to be their next head coach. The Eagles improved by five wins in Addazio's first season on the sidelines and will seek to end a three-game bowl losing streak dating back to 2007. The Eagles were a scrappy bunch in 2013, giving Florida State their toughest test to date in a fourteen point home loss. They also played Clemson tough in Death Valley, surrendering just two offensive touchdowns to the high-powered Tigers. For the season, Boston College was glaringly average in the ACC ranking sixth in yards per play and seventh in yards per play allowed. The focal point of their offense was running back Andre Williams, a Heisman finalist, who enters bowl season leading the nation in rushing yards with 2102. He is the first player to have at least 2000 yards rushing since Donald Brown in 2008. The Eagles will tangle with an Arizona team that also features a star running back. After leading the nation in rushing last season, Ka'Deem Carey enters the postseason ranked sixth in rushing yards. Despite Carey's heroics, the Wildcats ranked just eighth in the powerful Pac-12 in yards per play. The primary reason for this was the play of the passing game. Quarterback B.J. Denker took nearly every snap and averaged just 6.3 yards per pass, ranking 91st in the metric among qualifying quarterbacks. Defensively, the Wildcats improved from their horrendous showing last season, but were just seventh in the Pac-12 in yards per play allowed. The Pac-12 was a tremendous conference in 2013, but outside of their shocking upset of Oregon, the Wildcats only other league victories were against the dregs of the conference (Utah, Colorado, and Cal). Boston College is undervalued by the nation at-large despite the presence of a Heisman finalist. This line should be closer to a field goal rather than the touchdown spread it currently sits at. Look for Boston College to keep this one close and potentially pull off an outright upset.

Hyundai Sun Bowl
UCLA vs Virginia Tech
Line: UCLA -7
If the Arizona/Boston College game wasn't enough for you, the beautiful city of El Paso presents you with another ACC/Pac-12 clash. Very quietly, UCLA has won nine games for the second straight season under Jim Mora Jr. Currently ranked 17th in the AP Poll, the Bruins have a chance to finish the season ranked for the first time since 2005. Despite their impressive resume, when you peel back the onion, UCLA was not especially dominant in the Pac-12. Their offense, lead by quarterback Brett Hundley, ranked just seventh in the Pac-12 in yards per play. Hundley averaged a robust 8.3 yards per pass, but took 34 sacks to somewhat offset his big play ability. Hundley didn't get much help in the backfield from the usual starting running back, but linebacker turned offensive star Myles Jack was explosive in limited playing time. Jack only carried the ball 37 times, but he averaged over seven yards per rush and scored seven touchdowns. Jack also intercepted a pass and recorded a handful of tackles for loss. In addition to Jack, linebacker Anthony Barr proved to be a big playmaker on the defensive side of the ball. Barr recorded ten sacks and twenty tackles for loss in helping the Bruins rank fifth in the Pac-12 in yards per play allowed. Barr and Jack will attempt to stymie the gargantuan Logan Thomas who endured a very disappointing senior season at Virginia Tech. Over his junior and senior seasons, Thomas has thrown an incredible 29 interceptions and the Hokies have gone just 15-10 after losing more than four game just once since 1997. With Thomas struggling, the defense was its usual dominant self, ranking second in the ACC in yards per play allowed, behind only Florida State. Despite their struggles, Virginia Tech is no pushover. Outside of Alabama, all their losses came by a touchdown or fewer, and the Hokies did beat six bowl teams in 2013, including three on the road (East Carolina, Marshall, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, and Miami). Like Boston College, Virginia Tech is a little undervalued. I expect this to be a typical Hokie game circa 2013; ugly and low-scoring. Take the Hokies to cover and don't be surprised with an outright upset.


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Mississippi State vs Rice
Line: Mississippi State -7
With a season ending upset of rival Ole Miss, the Bulldogs from Mississippi State have qualified for their fourth consecutive bowl game, a new school record. Aside from that victory over the Rebels however, there isn't a great deal of heft on the Bulldogs resume. Their second best win is easily their one-point home escape over eventual MAC champ, Bowling Green. Their other conference wins came over Arkansas and Kentucky, a pair that managed a cumulative 0-16 mark in the SEC. In non-conference action, they also crushed Steve McNair's alma mater and Troy. In fact, their most impressive performance on the year is arguably their close loss to eventual SEC champion Auburn in the season's third week. In SEC play, Mississippi State was below average on both sides of the ball, ranking eighth in yards per play and ninth in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs will be quarterbacked in the Liberty Bowl by sophomore Dak Prescott who actually led the team in rushing with 751 yards and eleven touchdowns. His passing was a little uneven as he threw as many interceptions (seven) as touchdowns. The Bulldogs will look to improve to 3-1 in bowl games under Dan Mullen against a Rice team that just won their first outright conference title since 1957. The Owls won ten games for just the third time in school history, and the second time under coach David Bailiff. Rice opened their season playing an SEC team, where they lost, but kept the game somewhat competitive. They then knocked off Kansas for the second consecutive season, and after a tight loss to former conference mate Houston, reeled off nine wins in their final ten games. The Owls made a habit of winning the close ones in 2013, rolling up a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Primarily thanks to their close game success, the Owls finished 7-1 in Conference USA despite middling yards per play numbers. They ranked just eighth in Conference USA in yards per play and sixth in yards per play allowed. In fact, in league play, their most impressive performance did not come until the Conference USA Championship Game against Marshall. The Owls averaged over seven yards per play and held the explosive Marshall offense to under five yards per play in a seventeen point win. Senior quarterback Taylor McHargue completed just over half his passes, but threw 17 touchdowns and also rushed for nearly 500 yards. The offensive line did not do a great job protecting McHargue, as the Owls allowed 33 sacks (104th in the nation). The good news for Rice fans is that Mississippi State only accumulated sixteen sacks themselves over the course of the year, so McHargue has a better shot at avoiding negative plays. During his tenure at Mississippi State, Dan Mullen has gone 12-1 versus IA teams from outside BCS conferences. However, against the better teams, those games have often been close (see Bowling Green this season and Louisiana Tech two years ago). Rice is a quality team and should be motivated to win their eleventh game of the season. Look for the Owls to keep this one close and cover here.


Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Texas A&M vs Duke
Line: Texas A&M -12
Coming off a season that saw them finish 11-2 and rank in the top-five of the final AP Poll for the first time since 1956 when a certain legendary gentleman was stalking the sidelines, the Aggies entered 2013 with great expectations. However, despite the exploits of the reigning Heisman winner, the Aggies defense went from bad to worse and the Aggies were just 4-4 in the SEC. To be fair, three of their losses came by a touchdown or less, but two of them also came in the comfy confines of College State where the Aggies played eight games this season. Ten of their twelve opponents scored at least 28 points against the Aggies lackluster defense. In the SEC, only Kentucky and Arkansas allowed more yards per play than the Aggies. The Aggies also did a poor job forcing turnovers, creating just nine in their eight SEC games. A defense that allows a lot of big plays and fails in creating turnovers will generally allow a great deal of points, and the Aggies were no exception, permitting 36.5 points per game in their league contests. And despite those defensive struggles, the Aggies head to Atlanta as huge favorites against a Duke team that, while not possessing the resume of a ten-win team, is clearly the best team Duke has fielded in ages. After losing their first two ACC games, the Blue Devils won their final eight regular season contests before falling to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Amazingly, the Blue Devils won all four of their ACC road games, equaling their number of conference road wins in David Cutcliffe's first five seasons. Duke was a functionally average team in the ACC, ranking seventh in yards per play and ninth in yards per play allowed. Duke's biggest playmaker on offense is wide receiver Jamison Crowder who has nearly 1200 yards receiving. Crowder also returned two punts for touchdowns and corner DeVon Edwards added two kickoff return touchdowns, one of which provided the winning margin in their division clinching game against rival North Carolina. Edwards also ran two interceptions back against NC State, accounting for three touchdown in Duke's eighteen point win. In a season of roughly 1900 plays, Edwards' four big ones provided the thin margin by which Duke enjoyed a sublime season. Texas A&M is better than Duke, but double-digit favorites, especially when they are not elite teams, do not fare well against the spread in bowl season. Even if this game is relatively non-competitive, the Aggie defense will leave the backdoor wide open in this game. Take the Devils to cover, and don't be surprised if this one is a lot closer than most thought possible.


TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Georgia vs Nebraska
Line: Georgia -9
This year's Gator Bowl presents us with a rematch of last season's Capital One Bowl. An early back-and-forth affair turned into a relatively comfortable 45-31 win for Georgia. Despite the familiarity, this game will feature two different starting quarterbacks than the last matchup. Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez was injured in the season opener, and while he did play appear in four games, he missed the Cornhuskers last five contests and will not be playing in the bowl. Georgia's outstanding senior signal caller, Aaron Murray, was injured in their penultimate regular season game and missed the annual clash with Georgia Tech and is out for this game as well. In looking at Nebraska's Big 10 stats, we can get a pretty idea as to what kind of team they are without Martinez, as he played in only one conference game. The results, at least on offense, are not pretty. Nebraska ranked just ninth in the conference in yards per play. The quarterbacks behind Martinez, Tommy Armstrong Jr. and Ron Kelllogg III combined to throw just thirteen touchdowns and ten interceptions on the season. Plus, those two are far from the running threat Martinez was. Armstrong and Kellogg combined to rush for just 160 yards on 80 carries in 2013. In his illustrious Nebraska career, Martinez rushed for nearly 3000 yards and averaged over five yards per carry. The offense certainly missed him in his absence. However, the defense compensated for his loss. The Cornhuskers ranked second in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed. However, the vagaries of a short season manifested themselves in the inability of the defense to force turnovers. Nebraska forced just six in their eight conference games, easily the fewest in the league. A few more swing plays here or there and maybe Nebraska wins nine or ten games. On the other hand, evaluating Georgia is a little bit different since Aaron Murray played in all their SEC games. Murray and the Bulldogs own a pair of impressive wins, beating both South Carolina and LSU between the hedges. They also nearly beat eventual SEC champion Auburn (a common refrain in 2013) on the road before suffering a heartbreaking defeat. For the season, Georgia ranked sixth in the SEC in yards per play (remember a lot of powerful offenses resided in the SEC) and sixth in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs allowed at least 30 points to six of their eight conference opponents, with low-wattage outfits Florida and Kentucky failing to get to that number. In their final regular season game against Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs fell behind early before quarterback Hutson Mason rallied them to an overtime win. Still, Georgia allowed over 30 points to the Yellow Jackets meaning eight of their eleven IA opponents went at least that high in 2013. I think the spread in this game is a little high considering the potential defensive issues at Georgia. Nebraska's defense is more than capable of holding Georgia in check and keeping this game close. I wouldn't bank on a Nebraska win, but a cover seems likely here.


Heart of Dallas Bowl
North Texas vs UNLV
Line: North Texas -6.5
This game is an unexpected treat for mid-major aficionados like myself. Getting the opportunity to play on New Year's Day, even if they are stuck on ESPNU, is something most in Denton and Las Vegas probably did not expect when the season began. For North Texas, this marks their first bowl appearance since 2004 when they finished their run of four consecutive New Orleans Bowl bids. After winning just thirteen games from 2005 through 2010, the Mean Green have won seventeen in just three seasons under Dan McCarney. After turning the Iowa State program around and guiding the Cyclones to five bowl appearances over a six season span, McCarney guided the Mean Green to the cusp of a conference title in his third season at the helm. North Texas lost just two Conference USA games all season, with the defeats coming by three and eight points. Meanwhile, each of their six league wins came by at least twelve points, including a win over eventual league champ Rice. On the year, North Texas ranked fifth in Conference USA in yards per play and outstanding second in yards per play allowed. In fact, their per-play margin ranked second in the league behind only Marshall. Offensively, the Mean Green were not explosive, but they also suffered few negative plays. They allowed only ten sacks on the season, an amount that ranked fifth in the nation. The Mean Green are a senior laden team, with their quarterback, running back, two leading receivers, and four leaders in tackles for loss all playing their final games on the January 1st. Seeking to win a bowl game for the first time since 2002, the Mean Green will face a UNLV team that has not been to the postseason since 2000, and has but three previous bowl appearances in its history. UNLV won a combined six games in Bobby Hauck's first three seasons in Sin City, but the Rebels shook off an ugly 0-2 start to win more than six games for just the second time in the last two decades. UNLV did what they had to do in 2013, namely beating six teams that did not finish with a winning record. To be fair, they did end the regular season with a beatdown of San Diego State, their lone win over a bowl team, to clinch this bowl appearance. UNLV was below average on both sides of the ball in Mountain West play, ranking ninth in yards per play and seventh in yards per play allowed. Despite the pedestrian showing, a few seniors did have good individual performances. Senior quarterback Caleb Herring three 22 touchdown passes after throwing just 14 in his first three years at the school. Senior running back Tim Cornett rushed for over 1200 yards for the second straight year, and set the school's career rushing mark, passing Mike Thomas. Both of these teams have been absent from the postseason for a while, so motivation should not be an issue. North Texas is probably the better team, but this spread is a little too high to feel comfortable taking them. Sit this one out and enjoy some mid-majors that get the New Year's spotlight.


Capital One Bowl
Wisconsin vs South Carolina
Line: Wisconsin -2
For the third straight year, South Carolina will take a New Year's trip to Florida, face a Big 10 team, and attempt to set/tie the school record for wins in a season with eleven. The Gamecocks have burst onto the national scene in recent years, and despite not playing in the SEC Championship Game during this run (they won a watered down SEC East in 2010), have enjoyed arguably the best seasons in school history back-to-back-to-back. South Carolina was not elite on either side of the ball in the SEC this year, ranking seventh in yards per play and fifth in yards per play allowed. However, since most SEC teams were very unbalanced with either a great offense and poor defense (see Texas A&M) or great defense and paleolithic offense (see Florida), the Gamecocks actually ranked fourth in yards per play differential. This will be the final game for the best quarterback in Gamecock history, Connor Shaw. Despite not getting nearly the attention he deserves nationally, Shaw quietly enjoyed one of the best touchdown to interception ratio seasons of all-time. Shaw threw 21 touchdown passes on the year (and also added five scores on the ground), but threw just a single interception. The four Heisman Trophy finalist quarterbacks combined to throw 36 interceptions! I'm not saying Shaw deserved an invite, but he should have at least been in the conversation. Joining Shaw in the backfield is sophomore running back Mike Davis. While potentially blasphemous to folks around Columbia, Davis posted better rushing numbers than Marcus Lattimore did in any season. And of course, on defense, the man with true SEC speed, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, will be playing his final college game. The Gamecocks will face an imposing Wisconsin team that is not playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2009. The Badgers were probably a bit underrated for much of the year until their head-scratching home loss to Penn State to close the year. Overall, Wisconsin ranked second in the Big 10 in yards per play and fourth in yards per play allowed. Although they were an old school Big 10 team in that they loved to run the ball, this was not three yards and a cloud of dust. The Badgers finished second nationally in yards per rush (behind another Big 10 team in Ohio State) by averaging a robust 6.61 yards per carry. For the second time in four seasons, the Badgers had two backs go over 1000 yards on the ground. Melvin Gordon got fewer touches than James White, but averaged over eight yards per attempt. For his career, Gordon is averaging an absurd 8.31 yards per carry on 263 attempts. The Badgers can also sling it a little bit with Jared Abbrederis becoming to first Badger to go over 1000 yards receiving since Brandon Williams in 2005. This game has the potential to be one of the better clashes of bowl season. There is no value on either side of this spread, so just sit back and enjoy while you nurse that hangover.


Outback Bowl
LSU vs Iowa
Line: LSU -7
This Outback Bowl is a rematch of the Capital One Bowl from nearly a decade ago that featured one of the best endings in college football history.
Iowa rebounded from a rare losing campaign in 2012 to qualify for their eleventh bowl game in the past thirteen seasons. Iowa lost four games in 2013, but each loss came to a quality opponent. Northern Illinois nearly finished unbeaten, Michigan State and Ohio State lost just two games between them, and Wisconsin is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Hawkeyes also own solid wins over Minnesota, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa ranked just seventh in the Big 10 in yards per play, but they boasted a very solid defense, ranking third in yards per play allowed. On offense, the Hawkeyes prefer to run the ball, ranking 94th in the nation in pass attempts per game. The Hawkeyes did not have a 1000-yard rusher, but they did have three players who gained at least 400 yards on the ground. Iowa's biggest playmaker on offense is receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley. Though he only gained 384 yards through the air, he also returned two punts for touchdowns in the same game. The Hawkeyes will take on an LSU team that flipped the script on their usual method for winning games. Typically, the Tigers are led by an elite defense and an inconsistent offense. However, this season, their offense was among the best in the SEC, ranking third in yards per play, while their defense regressed and was just seventh in yards per play allowed. Senior quarterback Zach Mettenberger threw 22 touchdowns and averaged over ten yards per pass attempt. LSU offensive series seemed to follow this script: Short run on first down, short run or incomplete pass on second down, and a ridiculous throw and catch by Mettenberger to one of his stud wideouts (Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckham Jr) on third and long. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Mettenberger tore his ACL in the Tiger's regular season finale against Arkansas. In his absence, the Tigers will turn to freshman Anthony Jennings, who engineered the fourth quarter comeback against Arkansas. How will the freshman perform against one of the better defenses in the Big 10? That should go a long way in determining the winner here. LSU is notorious for not covering the spread under Les Miles. I would be hesitant to back them here, but at the same time, Iowa feels like the type of team LSU can dominate with their fantastic receivers. Sit this one out and save your money for better options.


Rose Bowl
Stanford vs Michigan State
Line: Stanford -6
Like the Republican Party, the football gods seem to be trying to take the Rose Bowl back to a simpler, more conservative time. After a 2012 game that saw Wisconsin and Oregon combine for 83 points and over 1100 yards, the 2013 game saw 34 points scored and just over 600 yards gained. Traditionalists, rejoice! The 2014 game is likely to be another low-scoring, albeit entertaining affair. Michigan State finally broke through to claim their first Rose Bowl berth since 1987. Amazingly, in three of the past four seasons, the Spartans have lost one or fewer Big 10 games! Michigan State featured by far the best defense in the Big 10, ranking first in yards per play allowed. And after a rough start, the offense coalesced, and actually ranked fourth in the Big 10 in yards per play. The elite Spartan defense will be missing a key component however, as linebacker Max Bullough was suspended for a violation of team rules. While Bullough will be missed, the Spartans have a host of other playmakers on that side of the ball, including linebacker Denicos Allen and defensive end Shilique Calhoun. The Spartans will face a Stanford team that is pretty formidable in its own right. While the Cardinal did rank second in the Pac-12 in yards per play allowed (behind Oregon), they also ranked (a perhaps surprising) second in yards per play. The offense, led by quarterback Kevin Hogan averaged nine yards per pass (ninth nationally) on the rare times they threw the ball (only eight teams threw the ball fewer times). Defensively, linebacker Trent Murphy finished the regular season with fourteen sacks, a number that currently ranks second in the nation. Stanford is probably the better team, but this game, even with the absence of Bullough, feels like it could go either way. Take the Spartans to cover here.


Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Baylor vs Central Florida
Line: Baylor -16.5
Congrats are in order for both of these squads that are making their first ever BCS bowl appearances. Baylor won its first outright conference title since 1980 when a certain Samurai was patrolling the middle. The Bears got a great deal of publicity early in the season for their offensive prowess, and why not? They scored at least 70 points in three of their first four and four of their first six games. However, lest we forget, Baylor's offense has been pretty good for about four years now. It was the defensive improvement that caused the Bears to jump from top-twenty team to national player. After allowing 50 touchdowns in Big 12 play last season (that equals about five and a half per game), the Bears allowed just 28 in their Big 12 contests this season (a little more than three per game). The Bears also ranked second in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed (of course they ranked first in yards per play). After averaging just over nineteen sacks per season in Art Brile's first five years on the Waco sideline, the Bears sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times in 2013. The Bears will attempt to win twelve games for the first time in school history against a Central Florida team that has been living on the edge all season. While the Knights won eleven games and the inaugural American Athletic Conference title, they also pulled several Houdini acts. The Knights were 7-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and needed clutch fourth quarter play to beat four teams (Memphis, Temple, South Florida, and SMU) that finished a combined 12-36! Behind the play of future NFL quarterback Blake Bortles, the Knights ranked second in the American in yards per play. The defense, long a strength of George O'Leary's teams, ranked a respectable fourth in yards per play allowed. However, the Knights are probably the worst team to qualify for a BCS bowl this season. Previous warnings against double-digit favorites in the bowl season apply here, but this has all the makings of a Baylor blowout.


Allstate Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Oklahoma
Line: Alabama -15
If you only looked at the final records and the pedigree for this game, you might think this Sugar Bowl would be an instant classic. However, digging into how both teams achieved their respective records in 2013, you can see why the oddsmakers favor Alabama by such a large margin. We'll start with the Sooners who won at least ten games for the twelfth time in fifteen seasons under Bob Stoops. While the Sooners do own some impressive wins, including victories on the road at Notre Dame, at Kansas State, and at Oklahoma State, they were also crushed by Texas and Baylor, and narrowly escaped not ready for primetime outfits West Virginia, TCU, and Texas Tech at home. Overall, Oklahoma ranked fourth in the Big 12 in yards per play and sixth in yards per play allowed. After enjoying the services of Landry Jones for four seasons, the Sooners struggled throwing the football in 2013, averaging just 6.6 yards per pass (tied for 89th in the nation). The Sooners will likely need to score a lot of point to hang with Alabama. The Crimson Tide actually led the SEC in yards per play as they averaged at least six yards per play against every league opponent except one (Mississippi State). Senior quarterback A.J. McCarron completed more than two thirds of his passes and threw 26 touchdowns on the year. Running back T.J. Yeldon rushed for nearly 1200 yards and averaged over six yards per carry. This Alabama team was not quite as dominant as the two that immediately preceded it, but I think you can make a pretty credible argument that Alabama is the second best team in the country. Previous warnings about double-digit favorites apply here, but Alabama is truly an elite team and a blowout by the Tide would not shock me here.