The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Week One was bad and things did not get better in Week Two. I swear I am not actively trying to make incorrect picks. Lets see if we can put a winning week together.     

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 4-9-1

Temple +5.5 Toledo

Since 2021, MAC teams have been favored in fourteen home games against non-conference FBS opponents not named Massachusetts. I didn't count the Minutemen, since they were formerly and are now once again, a member of the MAC. In those fourteen games, MAC teams are just 8-6 straight up and a ghastly 3-11 ATS. The MAC and Conference USA are at the bottom of FBS in conference strength while the American is arguably the best Group of Six conference. For that reason, there would have to be some serious extenuating circumstances for me to back the MAC school. There simply are none here. This is too many points for a team that may actually be better than Toledo. 

Rutgers +24 Southern Cal

Rutgers is a scary underdog to back after their showings against Massachusetts and Boston College. Those two northeastern powers combined to win exactly two games last season. Thus far in 2026, they both own victories against the Scarlet Knights. While Rutgers has not been a good team this season, they have looked worse thanks to turnovers and failed fourth down conversions. Rutgers has turned the ball over eight times in two games for a turnover margin of -5. They have also been stopped on fourth down four times while failing to stop their opponents a single time this season. Those fourth down failures equate to an extra four hidden turnovers giving the Scarlet Knights an adjusted turnover margin of -9 through two games! If they turn the ball over four more times against the Trojans while gaining none of their own, this will be one of my worst picks (and that is saying something), but I think this number is a little juiced toward the Trojans on account of those turnovers. Plus, this is Southern Cal's first road game of the year and involves cross country travel. They may also be looking ahead as they host Oregon, a team they have not beaten in a decade, next week. For comparison, Rutgers faces Howard next week. Lincoln Riley's struggles in the eastern time zone has been well documented, but in general, as a road favorite, his Southern Cal teams have struggled. They are 3-12 ATS in the role (0-5 as a double digit road favorite) and have lost outright five times. An outright loss would be confounding and might seriously get Riley fired. I don't think that will happen, but I expect an inspired effort from Rutgers and a little better luck should see them stay within this number. 

UTEP +35.5 Michigan

This the ultimate hold your nose play on UTEP. Two weeks ago, the Miners lost 51-0 to a team Michigan just beat. Why on earth would you even think of backing them in The Big House? For starters, Michigan has scored 30 points through two games. I know they will probably find the going a lot easier against UTEP, but they probably won't be scoring much more than 35. They scored on their opening, presumably scripted drive against Western Michigan, and then did not score again against the Broncos until completing a controversial Hail Mary. Last week, while they did manage 17 points against an elite Oklahoma defense, one of those scoring drives covered exactly six yards after a John Mateer interception. In addition to their offensive struggles, this is also the ultimate sandwich spot for the Wolverines. They just faced Oklahoma as home underdogs and next week they host what should be an unbeaten Iowa squad. Will the Wolverines really be focused on the Miners? And if (and when) they get up in this game, will they continue trying to score, or will they sit on the ball and attempt to avoid injuries as they competition stiffens next week? UTEP has faced two three power conference foes under Scotty Walden. They opened the 2024 and 2026 seasons getting blasted by Nebraska and Oklahoma respectively, but last year, stayed within three scores as a massive underdog at Texas. The Wolverines will have more on their mind than UTEP and if the Miners can kick a measly field goal, they should be able to cover this number. 

Mississippi State +4 South Carolina

In the new SEC, its never going to be easy to get to a bowl game at Mississippi State, and scheduling a tenth power conference team outside of the new nine game SEC schedule does not help matters. Despite that handicap, things are looking up in Starkville, especially after their dominant win on the road against Minnesota last week. Of course, the Bulldogs also got off to a strong start last year, opening the season 4-0, including a win against the reigning Big 12 champion before water found its level and the Bulldogs dropped seven of their final eight games. With Kamario Taylor entrenched at quarterback and the schedule a little lighter than last season, a winning record for the first time since the untimely passing of Mike Leach is on the board. I think the Bulldogs will get halfway to bowl eligibility against a South Carolina team that dominated Towson on the scoreboard, but struggled mightily in the passing game. LaNorris Sellers completed less than half his passes and threw for less than 100 yards against the FCS Tigers. I maintain Sellers is just intriguing enough to get an NFL coach fired. He is inconsistent at best as a passer and takes too many sacks. I think Taylor outplays him on Saturday and Mississippi State opens SEC play with a win. 

Florida International +7 Florida Atlantic

I contemplated taking the Owls as a slight home underdog last week and they managed to upset Navy despite a complete inability to shut down their option attack. The Midshipmen put up numbers on the ground that were nearly identical to the ones Florida put up the week prior (246 yards at nearly seven yards per carry). Florida Atlantic jumped out to a 38-7 lead, but could not salt the game away thanks to their own inability to run the football. The Owls gained 42 yards on 44 rushing attempts against Navy. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp cooked the Navy secondary, throwing for 386 yards and five touchdowns, but I expect the Panthers to put up more resistance. FIU beat the Owls last season, forcing three Veltkamp interceptions, which has been a consistent issue for the quarterback in Boca Raton. Veltkamp has played 13 games against FBS opponents as the Owls quarterback and he has a clean passing sheet (no interceptions), just three times. The Owls are 2-1 in those games (2-8 in the other ten) so if he can protect the football, the Owls will probably beat their in-state rivals. I think he throws at least one interception and I wouldn't discount the chance he throws a few. Take the Panthers to keep this one close and potentially win on the road. 

Rice +9.5 Western Michigan

In the Temple/Toledo write up a few paragraphs above, I noted MAC teams have not fared well when going off as favorites in non-conference play. Those numbers solely referenced their performance as home favorites since 2021. Their results as road favorites, in a much smaller sample, is even more alarming. MAC teams have been road favorites against non-conference opponents just three times since 2021. Toledo was responsible for all three instances and the Rockets not only managed an 0-3 mark ATS, they also lost each game outright. In addition, they were never favored by more than three points. Now you are asking a MAC team to win by double digits on the road. Western Michigan certainly has the collective sympathy of the nation after they were, if not robbed, at least partially swindled, out of a win at Michigan. Meanwhile, Rice is coming off a massive beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame. While the Owls were shut out in South Bend, that game got away from them quickly. The Owls fumbled on their second play from scrimmage and the Irish returned it for a touchdown. On their subsequent drive, they fumbled again and Notre Dame scored in three plays to go up 14-0 less than five minutes into the game. Things did not get better from there and while Rice was never a threat to win the game, going down 14 points in the opening minutes was less than ideal for an option attack. Speaking of the option, I'll note that Marcus Freeman has been phenomenal against option teams as coach of Notre Dame. After allowing 32 points to Navy in his first season (2022), the Irish have allowed 3, 14, and 10 points in their past three meetings. And those last two Navy offense have been quite good. The Irish also held eventual AAC champion Army to 14 points in 2024. So don't look at the zero points Rice scored and expect Western Michigan to hold them to a similar number. Finally, take a look at Western Michigan's schedule. The Broncos from Kalamazoo face an equine foe next week when they host Boise State. The Broncos may be looking ahead as they seek to get a leg up on the other Group of Six teams in the College Football Playoff race. This is too many points. Take another parliament of Owls against a MAC favorite. 

Maryland +3 Virginia Tech

If I didn't know any better,  I would think James Franklin had an axe to grind against Penn State. The former 'coach in waiting' at College Park was 5-1 against Maryland since Mike Locksley arrived in 2019. All five of those victories came by at least seventeen points and four of them came by thirty or more. Maryland's lone victory against Penn State under Locksley came in the pandemic impacted 2020 season (as nearly four touchdown underdogs). In other words, Franklin should not lack any motivation in trying to improve to 3-0 as head coach at Virginia Tech. While the mind should be willing, I think the flesh will be weak. Virginia Tech dominated Old Dominion on the scoreboard last week, but the box score was more inconclusive. While the Hokies outgained the Monarchs (416 to 310), they also averaged a yard fewer per play (5.96 to 4.84). The Hokies returned a fumble for a touchdown and had another touchdown drive that started on the Old Dominion twenty yard line after a fumble. The result was much better than last year's game against Old Dominion, but a little misleading nonetheless. Now Virginia Tech is making their first road trip of the year against a Maryland team that has looked good, (and by good I mean destined to finish 6-6 or 7-5) in the early going. Excluding 2020 when there were no non-conference games, the Terps are 10-0 under Locksley in conference home games against FBS teams. Obviously some of those games have come against MAC punching bags, but they have also beaten SMU, Syracuse, Virginia, and West Virginia in that span. The wrong team is favored here. Maryland will open 3-0 and tease their fans with the promise of a ranked campaign.