I am just curious: for the bowls with teams with the same record, what is the winning % of that sub-category based on Better Point Differential, Better Offense, and Better Defense?
Ask and you shall receive.
When bowl teams have the same record the winning percentages for each category are as follows:
Better Point Differential: 14-20 .412
Better Conference Record: 8-10 .444
Better Offense: 14-20 .412
Better Defense: 21-13 .618
When teams have the same overall record, better defense remains a good predictor of bowl winners (actually increasing from .581 when overall record is discounted). However, the other three measures all decline in their ability to pick winners, especially point differential and better offense. I wouldn't draw any dramatic conclusions from this because the sample size is quite small. What do you think?