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Statistically Speaking: Home Cooking

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Home Cooking


Rutgers is pretty much a lock to cover the 7 point spread against Louisville tomorrow, and will probably win the game outright. Here's Louisville's home/road splits since 2003.

2003 Home
Record: 5-1
Points per Game: 36.2
Points Allowed per Game: 24.3
Close Games (decided by 8 points or less): 0

2003 Road
Record: 4-2
Points per Game: 34.2
Points Allowed per Game: 27.7
Close Games: 3

2004 Home
Record: 5-0
Points per Game: 50.6
Points Allowed per Game: 10.2
Close Games: 0

2004 Road
Record: 5-1
Points per Game: 50.0
Points Allowed per Game: 24.2
Close Games: 2

2005 Home
Record: 6-0
Points per Game: 55.3
Points Allowed per Game: 15.5
Close Games: 0

2005 Road
Record: 3-2
Points per Game: 33.0
Points Allowed per Game: 31.4
Close Games: 2

2006 Home
Record: 4-0
Points per Game: 39.3
Points Allowed per game: 21.5
Close Games: 1

2006 Road
Record: 4-0
Points per Game: 39.5
Points Allowed per Game: 9.0
Close Games: 0

At home Louisville has been nigh-invulnerable going 20-1 in nearly 4 seasons. On the road they have been a different team, albeit one that still sports a stellar 16-5 record. At home, Louisville has played only one nail-biter--the game against Cincinnati earlier this season. On the road, Louisville has had 7 games comes down to the wire. Things do appear to be changing this season as Louisville has actually been more impressive on the road. Ah, but check the schedule. Every home game this season has been against a team that currently sports a winning record. The best team they have played on the road was a mediocre Kansas State team. Their road slate also includes a date against Temple (a 62-0 thrashing that skews the data). Against teams with winning records at home, Louisville is 7-1 since 2003. Against winning teams on the road, Louisville is only 3-4, with 2 of the wins coming this season against Kansas State and Middle Tennessee State. And what ofheir most famous road setback? That South Florida team was only 6-6.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

When they get blown out by 21+, does that mean I should never read you're blog ever again?

11:42 AM  
Blogger matt said...

Sure

2:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ha ^^^^^ someone looks like an idiot.

9:55 PM  
Blogger ACCHalfBreed said...

You did pick Wake to win this time, right?

10:08 PM  
Blogger ACCHalfBreed said...

You did pick Wake to win this time, right?

10:08 PM  

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