Big Game James
His Forte is pounding the rock.5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 27-31-2
Texas A&M +5.5 Texas
On the road against decent teams, Texas owns a pair of 3 point wins--versus Central Florida and Oklahoma State. The Aggies meanwhile, have only lost once at home--to undefeated Kansas by a 19-11 count. The Longhorns will escape with a win and their shot at the Big 12 South in tact, but they will fail to cover the number.
Arkansas +13 LSU
In their last 4 games against winning teams, LSU has not won by more than 7 points. Arkansas is currently 7-4. If Casey Dick avoids throwing a ton of interceptions, the Razorbacks should keep this one close. LSU has won the last two by 2 and 5 points.
UCLA +2 Oregon
UCLA is coming off a bye week, fresh off a a good showing against Arizona State. Oregon on the other hand is coming off a crushing loss to Arizona that ruined their national title hopes and severely dented their BCS hopes. The Brady Leaf Experience V3.0 did not get off to a good start in the game against the Wildcats. True, his skills are not accentuated by the system, but a competent Division I quarterback should be able to hit his receivers in stride occasionally. UCLA will get to bowl eligibility and further dim the Duck's conference title aspirations.
Connecticut +17 West Virginia
Fresh off a win over the second best turnover margin team in the country, the Mountaineers get to host the fifth best turnover margin team in the country. West Virginia was only -1 in turnover margin against Cincinnati, yet only managed a 5 point win. The Mountaineers are a better team and I fully expect them to win, but laying 17 points is simply too much against a quality opponent.
Washington State +6 Washington
The largest margin of victory in the last 5 Apple Cups is 8 points. This one should also be close. Washington State has crushed by Oregon State 52-17 last week, but that was mostly due to their 8 turnovers. Quarterback Alex Brink threw 6 interceptions after throwing only 9 in the first 10 games. Don't expect a similar performance against a Washington team with only 11 interceptions on the season.
Overall: 27-31-2
Texas A&M +5.5 Texas
On the road against decent teams, Texas owns a pair of 3 point wins--versus Central Florida and Oklahoma State. The Aggies meanwhile, have only lost once at home--to undefeated Kansas by a 19-11 count. The Longhorns will escape with a win and their shot at the Big 12 South in tact, but they will fail to cover the number.
Arkansas +13 LSU
In their last 4 games against winning teams, LSU has not won by more than 7 points. Arkansas is currently 7-4. If Casey Dick avoids throwing a ton of interceptions, the Razorbacks should keep this one close. LSU has won the last two by 2 and 5 points.
UCLA +2 Oregon
UCLA is coming off a bye week, fresh off a a good showing against Arizona State. Oregon on the other hand is coming off a crushing loss to Arizona that ruined their national title hopes and severely dented their BCS hopes. The Brady Leaf Experience V3.0 did not get off to a good start in the game against the Wildcats. True, his skills are not accentuated by the system, but a competent Division I quarterback should be able to hit his receivers in stride occasionally. UCLA will get to bowl eligibility and further dim the Duck's conference title aspirations.
Connecticut +17 West Virginia
Fresh off a win over the second best turnover margin team in the country, the Mountaineers get to host the fifth best turnover margin team in the country. West Virginia was only -1 in turnover margin against Cincinnati, yet only managed a 5 point win. The Mountaineers are a better team and I fully expect them to win, but laying 17 points is simply too much against a quality opponent.
Washington State +6 Washington
The largest margin of victory in the last 5 Apple Cups is 8 points. This one should also be close. Washington State has crushed by Oregon State 52-17 last week, but that was mostly due to their 8 turnovers. Quarterback Alex Brink threw 6 interceptions after throwing only 9 in the first 10 games. Don't expect a similar performance against a Washington team with only 11 interceptions on the season.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 36-22-2
Hawaii -3 Boise State
If Hawaii was going to lose in the regular season, it was last week to Nevada. It didn't happen. The Warriors BCS hopes will be left up to computers and pollsters because they will take care of business against a team that must travel to Hawaii on short rest.
NC State -2 Maryland
The Wolfpack had their 4 game winning streak snapped last week in Winston-Salem and now face Maryland in a game that is a bowl elimination game of sorts. The winner will be bowl eligible, but with the glut of 6 and 7-win teams, is certainly not guaranteed a bowl bid. Maryland has lost 4 of 5 with the lone win a stunning 42-35 defeat of Boston College. The Terps will lose their 7th game of the season and fail to qualify for a bowl game for the 3rd time in 4 years.
Cincinnati -20.5 Syracuse
Seems like you can't make a point spread too high when Syracuse is involved. The Orange have 5 Big East losses and those losses have come by an average of 24.4 points. They have lost 3 conference home games by an average of 32 points.
Kansas State pick em Fresno State
While not technically a favorite, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since they are a pick em' on the road. The Wildcats have gone 2-5 since upsetting Texas in late September, but with the exception of the Iowa State game, the losses have been to teams ranging from decent to good. Fresno State is decent, but they are WAC decent, not Big 12 decent.
Kansas -2 Missouri @ Kansas City
Can the perfect season continue? Not only is Kansas 11-0, they are also 10-0 against the spread. Both the Jayhawks and Tigers have dynamic offenses, but Kansas has the better defense. The Tigers allow 23 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Jayhawks allow 14.2 points per game and 4.3 yards per play.
Overall: 36-22-2
Hawaii -3 Boise State
If Hawaii was going to lose in the regular season, it was last week to Nevada. It didn't happen. The Warriors BCS hopes will be left up to computers and pollsters because they will take care of business against a team that must travel to Hawaii on short rest.
NC State -2 Maryland
The Wolfpack had their 4 game winning streak snapped last week in Winston-Salem and now face Maryland in a game that is a bowl elimination game of sorts. The winner will be bowl eligible, but with the glut of 6 and 7-win teams, is certainly not guaranteed a bowl bid. Maryland has lost 4 of 5 with the lone win a stunning 42-35 defeat of Boston College. The Terps will lose their 7th game of the season and fail to qualify for a bowl game for the 3rd time in 4 years.
Cincinnati -20.5 Syracuse
Seems like you can't make a point spread too high when Syracuse is involved. The Orange have 5 Big East losses and those losses have come by an average of 24.4 points. They have lost 3 conference home games by an average of 32 points.
Kansas State pick em Fresno State
While not technically a favorite, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since they are a pick em' on the road. The Wildcats have gone 2-5 since upsetting Texas in late September, but with the exception of the Iowa State game, the losses have been to teams ranging from decent to good. Fresno State is decent, but they are WAC decent, not Big 12 decent.
Kansas -2 Missouri @ Kansas City
Can the perfect season continue? Not only is Kansas 11-0, they are also 10-0 against the spread. Both the Jayhawks and Tigers have dynamic offenses, but Kansas has the better defense. The Tigers allow 23 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Jayhawks allow 14.2 points per game and 4.3 yards per play.
Five to Steer Clear Of
Wake Forest -1.5 Vanderbilt
Wake is playing for an 8-win regular season, while Vandy is playing for bowl eligibility. After coming tantalizingly close in losses to Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee, will Vandy get their breakthrough here?
Tennessee +3 Kentucky
Tennessee may well be the 4th of 5th best team in the SEC East, but they are poised to play in Atlanta with a win here.
Clemson -3 South Carolina
What will the psyche of the Tigers' be after their heartbreaking loss to Boston College? Will the bye week help the Gamecocks fix their defense and prevent a 5-game losing streak?
Auburn -6 Alabama
This line is scary. Can Alabama lose 4 straight under Saban and their 6th in a row to Auburn?
North Carolina -14 Duke
As a Wake fan, it feels good to have the best Division IA football program in North Carolina (at least for the time being).
Wake is playing for an 8-win regular season, while Vandy is playing for bowl eligibility. After coming tantalizingly close in losses to Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee, will Vandy get their breakthrough here?
Tennessee +3 Kentucky
Tennessee may well be the 4th of 5th best team in the SEC East, but they are poised to play in Atlanta with a win here.
Clemson -3 South Carolina
What will the psyche of the Tigers' be after their heartbreaking loss to Boston College? Will the bye week help the Gamecocks fix their defense and prevent a 5-game losing streak?
Auburn -6 Alabama
This line is scary. Can Alabama lose 4 straight under Saban and their 6th in a row to Auburn?
North Carolina -14 Duke
As a Wake fan, it feels good to have the best Division IA football program in North Carolina (at least for the time being).
No comments:
Post a Comment