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Statistically Speaking: Bowl Appetit

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Bowl Appetit


Poinsettia Bowl
Utah -8 Navy

The bowl season kicks off on Thursday December 20th with the 3rd annual Poinsettia Bowl. Navy is making their second Poinsettia Bowl appearance, having won the inaugural game in 2005 by a 51-30 count over Colorado State. The Midshipmen will undoubtedly come into this game with somewhat heavy hearts as their admiral, and the formerly highest paid federal employee, Paul Johnson has jumped ship to captain the Yellow Jackets. As a favor to my readers, I will now cease with all maritime related puns.

So what can we expect from this game? For starters, one of the nation's best pass defenses will probably not have the opportunity to showcase its abilities. The Utah Utes rank 15th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, 2nd in opposing quarterback rating, 1st in passing touchdowns allowed, 3rd in opponent's completion percentage, 4th in yards per pass attempt, and 13th in sacks per game. Amazingly, the Utes allowed only 7 touchdown passes all season, and 4 came in their win over Louisville. Unfortunately for the Utes, Navy attempted the fewest passes of any team in Division IA this season. Their 122 pass attempts were 72 less than the second least pass-happy team (Air Force) and less than half (246) of the third least pass-happy team (West Virginia). They attempted more than 15 passes once (21 against Duke) and less than 10 passes seven times. Suffice it to say that Utah's biggest strength will probably not have a dramatic impact on the outcome of this game.

What about the Utes run defense; can they shut down one of the nation's best and most unique rushing attacks? Well, the Utes did play a team that runs an option offense at least vaguely similar to Navy's. That team was Air Force, and the results were not great. The Falcons gouged the Utes for 334 yards on the ground (5.30 per rush) in their 20-12 win in early September. The good news for the Utes is that game was early (second game of the year) and the Utes are likely (judging from what they accomplished over their last 10 games) at least marginally improved at stopping the run (though not necessarily the option). The Utes also get almost a month (since the bowl pairings were announced) to prepare for Navy's attack. Contrast this to the 9 days they had to prepare for Air Force after falling to Oregon State in the season opener. Utah will not be able to stop the Navy rush offense, but they should fair better against it than they did against the Air Force option.

All that is well and good, but the difference in this game will be Navy's defense. Their atrocious defense. The Midshipmen allowed 438 yards per game (99th in the nation). Only 4 teams failed to break 400 yards against the Navy defense. Those teams were Northern Illinois (93rd in yards per game), Temple (113th), Army (116th), and Notre Dame (119th aka last). Utah only finished 80th in yards per game (362 per game), but I would be shocked if they didn't top 500 against the Navy defense. Since beginning the season 2-3, and averaging only 304 yards per game, the Utes have gone 6-1, while averaging 404 yards per game. That is partly due to quarterback Brian Johnson's injury in the 2nd quarter of the season opener. He missed the rest of that game, the next two, and part of the next, before returning full time in game number 5.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, has led the Utes to bowl wins in each of his first two season, and the program has collectively won 6 bowl games in a row. Navy's struggles on defense, coupled with the departure of head coach Paul Johnson, and the solid Utah defense will give the Utes lucky number 7.

The Pick: Utah will cover the 8 point spread.

2 Comments:

Blogger Scott Albrecht said...

A little off topic, but will Johnson have success at GTech? He should be able to recruit some real athletes to play defense, but will struggle to get the big talent on offense if he keeps up the triple option (though he doesn't seem to need it). As a fan of the game, I loved watching Navy - should I get excited about GTech?

6:38 PM  
Blogger matt said...

I think so. I've been telling my friends that Johnson will win an ACC title at GT by year 5. I don't think he necessarily needs the big time talent for offense to shine (it worked pretty darn well at Navy). Quarterbacks like Tim Tebow and Pat White probably won't give him a look because they want to throw a little bit more, a lot of high schools still run the triple option or some variation of it, so I bet he can find someone who can run it competently. Plus, I don't think he's married to that scheme. I wouldn't be surprised if his teams went from being last in D-I in pass attempts to somewhere between 70th and 80th--not run and shoot teams, but able to thrown it and have fans not be caught off guard. You should be VERY excited.

Defensively, I'd love to see him keep Tenuta around as that was his biggest weakness at Navy (of course that probably had a lot to do with the talent he was able to get on defense).

4:03 PM  

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