Even the Losers: Louisiana Tech

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. Our sixth team profiled is the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech

2013 Record: 4-8 (3-5 Conference USA)

Summary: After going a combined 17-8 in 2011 and 2012, the Bulldogs lost their head coach as Sonny Dykes took his spread attach west to the University of California. In his stead, the Bulldogs chose a proven mid-major commodity who had just been fired by South Florida, Skip Holtz. The younger Holtz would have to replace some key pieces on offense, but a reasonable fan likely still expected the Bulldogs to at least compete for bowl eligibility, and the most delusional supporters likely figured the Bulldogs to be in the mix for the Conference USA title. The year began rather inauspiciously, with a 40-14 shellacking at the hands of NC State, a team that would go on to finish 0-8 in the ACC. The Bulldogs returned home and beat Lamar from IAA and on a short week, hosted in-state foe Tulane (in just their second ever meeting) in their first conference game as a member of Conference USA. The Bulldogs were held to 15 points and dropped to 1-2. The next week they traveled to Kansas and lost to a Jayhawk team that had not beaten a IA team since 2011. The next week, the Bulldogs lost to Army before ending their three-game skid the following week at UTEP. After a week off, the Bulldogs lost at home to North Texas, then won two in a row against the dregs of Conference USA (Florida International and Southern Miss). With just a touch of momentum built up, the Bulldogs responded by losing each of their final three games by at least ten points to Rice, Tulsa, and Texas-San Antonio to finish 4-8 and equal their losses from the previous two seasons combined.

What Did the Bulldogs Do Well?
Beat the dregs of the conference. While the Bulldogs didn't win every game they were favored in, losing to both Tulane and in the non-conference against Army as a betting favorite, the Bulldogs three conference wins came against UTEP, Florida International, and Southern Miss. Those three teams combined for a 4-32 overall record with two of the wins coming in pillow fights among themselves (UTEP over Florida International and Florida International over Southern Miss). 

What Didn't the Bulldogs Do Well?
Have explosive receivers. The bad news for Louisiana Tech is that their top quartet of receivers from 2013 will be gone when the 2014 season begins. The good news is those four gentlemen, led by Sterling Griffin, combined for just 1252 yards on 124 catches with just four touchdowns. 16 individual receivers had more yards in 2013. Two receivers had more catches. More than 100 receivers had more touchdown receptions. Every receiver in the top-100 in yards per catch averaged at least five yards more per reception than the piddling 10.1 this quartet averaged collectively. Some new blood, and experience at the quarterback position will not hurt in 2014.


The Bulldogs Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists Louisiana Tech's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference Louisiana Tech played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Bulldogs averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Bulldogs allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

Sonny Dykes took over for Derek Dooley in 2010 after Vince's son and Bill's nephew left for Ol' Rocky Top. The 2010 team was not especially strong, but managed a 4-4 mark in the WAC. With the WAC weakened by the departure of Boise State in 2011, the Bulldogs rose to the occasion and won the conference title on the strength of a fantastic defense and played in just their third bowl game in the last two decades. Perhaps ironically, while Dykes came to Ruston as an offensive guru, his first two teams were middling on that side of the ball. His 2012 team on the other hand, lit up the scoreboard, averaging over 51 points per game. The Bulldogs came into 2012, and an even weaker WAC, as the preseason favorite. They began the season with a 9-1 record, including road wins at Illinois and Virginia, with their lone loss up to that point coming to eventual Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. Their defense, an issue all season, let them down in the final two games, allowing 100 combined points to Utah State and San Jose State as the Bulldogs missed out on consecutive league titles. Still, with a 9-3 mark, a bowl game was seemingly assured. However, the Bulldogs either turned down or waited too long to accept an invitation (depending on your point of view) to the Independence Bowl (held in their home state) and were not invited to any other postseason contest. Sonny Dykes took the head coaching job at Cal, senior quarterback Colby Cameron matriculated, and Louisiana Tech had a player selected in the NFL Draft for the first time since 2010. Actually, with receiver Quinton Patton and offensive lineman Jordan Mills being taken, the Bulldogs had a pair of players selected. Skip Holtz took the reigns and as expected with all the attrition, the offense declined significantly. However, it pays to mention the defense improved by nearly as much as the offense declined.

The 2014 Schedule:
For Louisiana Tech, the non-conference schedule is far from easy. The Bulldogs have assured themselves at least two losses as they travel to Oklahoma and national runner-up Auburn. A third non-conference game comes on the road at Louisiana-Lafayette, a nascent Sun Belt power under Mark Hudspeth that has played in three consecutive bowl games. Once upon a time, the Cajuns and Bulldogs were annual foes, playing thirteen consecutive seasons from 1988 through 2000. These two have not met since 2004, and the Bulldogs have won six straight in the series, but times are a lot different than they were a decade ago. The team from Lafayette will likely be favored in this one. Their other non-conference game is a likely win against IAA Northwestern State. That means the Bulldogs will need to win at least four and more likely five conference games to attain bowl eligibility. In conference play, the Bulldogs will host Rice, Texas-San Antonio, UTEP, and Western Kentucky. Rice won ten games and the conference title last season, but must replace their starting quarterback and running back. Texas-San Antonio went 7-5 in just their second season of IA football last season. UTEP won two games last season and has not finished with a winning record since 2005. Western Kentucky appears to be on the upswing as a IA program, off their third consecutive winning campaign after an initial struggle transitioning to big time football. On the road in conference play, the Bulldogs travel to North Texas, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, and UAB. North Texas nearly won the division last season, but that was their first winning season in nearly a decade. Old Dominion is transitioning to IA and went 8-4 last season, but against IA teams, they were just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Idaho. Southern Miss has won just once in their past 24 games. UAB has not had a winning season since 2004, and their coach of two seasons decided he would rather be the offensive coordinator at Louisville. With some improvement on both sides of the ball, its not hard to envision Louisiana Tech winning the requisite five conference games needed to attain bowl eligibility. 

Reasons for Optimism:
Kenneth Dixon. When the Bulldogs were a scoring machine in 2012, freshman Kenneth Dixon tallied nearly 1200 yards on the ground and finished tops nationally with 27 rushing touchdowns. Despite missing the final two games of the 2013 season with a knee injury, Dixon actually averaged slightly more yards per rush (6.07) despite not quite getting to 1000 yards (finished with 917). Of course, as Louisiana Tech did not find themselves around the goalline quite as much, Dixon finished with just four rushing touchdowns. Provided he stays healthy, you can pencil Dixon in for another 1000 yards rushing.

Final Prognosis:
Conference USA is not the SEC. So despite a non-conference schedule that will do them no favors (last season's non-conference slate consisting of Army, Kansas, Lamar, and NC State was much easier) in terms of qualifying for a bowl, getting to five league wins is not out of the question. Neither the offense nor defense were particularly strong in 2013, with both ranking ninth in the league in yards per play. However, in a 16-team league, it does not take a math major to realize that is middle of the pack. If the passing game can improve at all, the Bulldogs appear to have a reliable ground game behind Kenneth Dixon, and could move into the top-third of the conference on offense. Similarly, its not hard to picture the defense seeing modest improvement. Couple that potential with a road schedule that features two of the weaker teams in the conference (Southern Miss and UAB) and a team new to IA football (Old Dominion) and a bowl game seems quite possible. I see the Bulldogs finishing with either five, six, or seven regular season wins depending on how their luck shakes out. Six wins will get them to bowl eligibility, but the Bulldogs will need seven to guarantee a bowl bid.

Even the Losers: Wake Forest

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. The fifth team we profile, is near and dear to my heart, my alma mater, Wake Forest.

Wake Forest

2013 Record: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)

Summary: After a disappointing offensive showing in 2012, the Demon Deacons revamped their offense in 2013 to include more option, harkening back to Jim Grobe's first few seasons in Winston-Salem. The season began with an expected 31-7 win against an outclassed Presbyterian team. Eight days later, the Deacons dove into conference play on a Friday night against Boston College, committed a turnover on the second offensive play, and managed under 250 yards of offense in a two touchdown loss. Returning home the following weekend, the Deacons faced Louisiana-Monroe, the mid-major upset kings from the previous season. The defense could not get off the field, allowing the Warhawks to run 104 plays in a two point loss. The Deacons righted the ship the following week against Army and then headed to Clemson where they were embarrassed 56-7; their worst loss to the Tigers since they hung 82 on a hapless Deacon squad in 1981. Credit the Deacons for not being demoralized, as they returned home to win consecutive games against NC State (their sixth straight over the Wolfpack at home) and Maryland. With a 4-3 mark, a bowl game at least seemed within the realm of possibility to even the most pessimistic Deacon fan. The next week, Wake jumped out to a 14-3 lead against undefeated Miami. The Hurricanes eventually won the game on a Duke Johnson touchdown run in the final minute. At 4-4, the Deacons headed north to face new conference foe Syracuse. Receiver Michael Campanaro was injured early in the contest and the Deacons were shut out for the third time in their last 19 games. Returning home to the friendly confines of BB&T field did not help matters against eventual national champion Florida State as the Deacons were crushed 59-3. Losers of three straight, they now needed to win out against fellow nerds Duke and Vanderbilt to have any shot at bowl eligibility. Wake jumped out to a 14-0 lead against the Blue Devils but lost by a touchdown as Duke was putting the finishing touches on a dream season. With nothing to play for but pride (and also revenge, yes definitely revenge), the Deacons traveled to Nashville in the season finale to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Deacons led in the fourth quarter, but a field goal in the final minute gave Vanderbilt the win and consigned the Deacons to a fifth consecutive losing season.

What Did the Demon Deacons Do Well?
Play defense. By the yards per play metric that we will examine later in this post, Wake Forest ranked fifth in the ACC. In a 14-team league, that is well above average. By other defensive statistics, they were also quite solid, ranking 31st nationally in yards allowed per game (366) and 38th nationally in points allowed per game (24). Senior defensive linemen Nikita Whitlock and Zach Thompson combined for 14 sacks and 30 tackles for loss, allowing the defense to keep the Deacons in games despite their woeful offense. Speaking of...

What Didn't the Demon Deacons Do Well?
Run, pass, or do anything very competently offensively. Excluding sacks, Wake Forest averaged just 3.63 yards per rush. If we do some Arthur Andersen style accounting and compare that number to every other college football team using the official NCAA statistics which do include yards lost due to sacks, the Deacons would have ranked 101st in yards per rush. Compare the Deacons on an even playing field, and their yards per rush including sacks ranked 119th nationally (2.96 per attempt) ahead of only six teams in IA football. The passing numbers are not any better. Wake Forest quarterbacks, led by Tanner Price, averaged just 5.7 yards per throw (118th nationally). In conference play, the Deacons ranked last in yards per play, accumulating a putrid 3.99 yards per snap.

The Demon Deacons Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists Wake Forest's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference Wake Forest played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Demon Deacons averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Demon Deacons allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

After qualifying for three bowl games in a four-season span, including an unthinkable conference title in 2006, Wake Forest cratered in 2010, as the core of those teams departed. Perhaps not surprisingly, no Deacon was drafted in 2011, the first time since 2004 that no Wake Forest player was selected. After that one season blip, the Deacons returned to their salty, irritating selves. Statistically, they were not a great team, ranking eighth in the ACC in both yards per play and Adjusted Pythagorean Record in 2011, but they were competitive and the bounces went their way (at least in conference play), where they won four of five one-score games. Ironically, the one close conference game they lost cost them a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Perhaps if the Deacons had scheduled like other BCS-conference teams that season (playing as many Sun Belt and MAC schools as they could fit on the schedule), they could have ended the year in the rankings. Alas, in three of their four non-conference games, they took on BCS-conference teams (Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Vanderbilt), losing all three and with a loss to Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl, endured another losing season. Four players from that season, including wide receiver Chris Givens, who left a year early, were selected in the draft. Without Givens to stretch the field in 2012, the offense sank, and offset marginal improvement by the defense. Needing a win in one of their final three games to attain bowl eligibility, the Deacons lost those final three contests by a combined 103 points and finished 5-7. The shift to a more option-based attach did not work in 2013, as the offense sunk even further while the defense held steady and the Jim Grobe era ended with a whimper as the Deacons fell to 4-8. When accessing Grobe's legacy in Winston-Salem, the cynic might point out the Deacons suffered five consecutive losing seasons at the end of his tenure. However, despite the struggles, Wake did play in a bowl game in one of those seasons, and twice missed out on bowl eligibility by just a single game. In his 13 seasons at the helm, the Deacons suffered only one awful season (2010). Under his predecessor Jim Caldwell, who actually was the head coach in a Super Bowl, the Deacons were awful five times in only eight seasons.

The 2014 Schedule:
The good news for Wake Forest fans is the Deacons do not play any BCS-conference teams in the non-conference portion of their schedule. The bad news is they are still unlikely to roll through it undefeated. Wake Forest begins the year with a road trip to Monroe, Louisiana to face a team that beat them in Winston-Salem last season. By no means is this game an assured loss, but it is likely close to a toss-up at best. The Deacons follow that up with an almost certain win against Gardner-Webb from IAA before heading west again to face one of the country's stronger mid-major teams, Utah State. The Aggies lost five games last season, but many statistical ratings, including those used by Jeff Sagarin, had them in the 40. A win here by the Deacons would be an upset indeed. The Deacons conclude their non-conference slate by hosting Army. While Wake has played and beaten Army three times in the past seven season, with each win coming by double-digits, an academy than runs the triple-option is not to be taken lightly. Realistically, the best Wake fans can hope for is a 3-1 non-conference record, and 2-2 would not be altogether surprising. Once conference play begins, Wake must travel to Florida State, Louisville, NC State, and Duke. Despite beating the Seminoles as recently as 2011, recent returns seem to indicate it will be quite sometime before Wake knocks off the Seminoles again. All things considered, as far as bowl hopes go, this game may as well be on the road, as the Deacons are unlikely to win in any venue. Despite the loss of Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville should once again be a quality team, so the Deacons appear unlikely to win the rematch of the 2006 Orange Bowl. While NC State was very bad last season, the Deacons have won in Raleigh just twice in my lifetime. After losing twelve straight games in the series, Duke has taken the last two against the Deacons and the tide may have turned in the in-state rivalry. A 1-3 road conference mark is probably the best case scenario for Wake Forest fans, which means the Deacons will have to earn their bowl trip at home. The Deacons play Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Syracuse in their home conference games. Clemson has not lost to Wake Forest since 2008 and won their past two trips to Winston-Salem by 20 and 29 points respectively. The Tigers must replace several playmakers on offense, but a Wake win here would be quite a surprise. Virginia Tech has beaten the Deacons in their four clashes as conference foes (with three of the games coming in Winston-Salem). Each one save the first (in 2004) has come by double-digits. A win over the Hokies, even at home would likewise be a stunning result. That leaves Boston College and Syracuse as the most likely Wake Forest home conference wins. While the Deacons lost to both teams last season, neither team is on the level of Clemson or Virginia Tech, so a sweep of those two games is perfectly conceivable.

Reasons for Optimism:
Dave Clawson. While it is indeed a sad day that Jim Grobe is no longer the head football coach at Wake Forest, perhaps some new blood was needed. While hiring a new coach is always a crapshoot, Wake did about as well as they possibly could, aside from exhuming and reanimating the corpse of Peahead Walker, in hiring Grobe's replacement. Clawson has (rebuilding and winning) head coaching experience at the IAA level (Fordham and Richmond, which also happen to be private schools) and the mid-major level of IA (Bowling Green). Perhaps more importantly, he was not a sexy flavor of the month coach who spent just a one season or two as a mid-major head coach before being handed the keys to a BCS-conference program, nor was he a mid-major coach who harvested the fruits of his predecessor's toil. Clawson stayed at Bowling Green for five seasons, even enduring horrendous regression is his second season before steadying the program and leading the Falcons to their first conference title since 1992. Don't expect miracles in his first season, but the Deacons appear to be in competent hands.

Final Prognosis:
The Deacons were quite good on defense last season. Unfortunately, two of the biggest reasons for that success, Nikita Whitlock and Zach Thompson will be gone, and perhaps plying their trade in the NFL. Defensive back, and potential future pro, Merrill Noel will return for his senior campaign giving the Deacons some help in the secondary. Still, its hard to see the defense improving on last season's numbers. Meanwhile, the offense despite the loss of leading receiver, Michael Campanaro, who may also find himself on a pro roster, and quarterback Tanner Price, the offense has nowhere to go, but up.Checking the schedule, if the Deacons do manage a 3-1 mark in non-conference play, that would mean they would need to scrounge up three ACC wins to get to bowl eligibility. Sweeping home games against Boston College and Syracuse would then be paramount. Assuming home losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech, the Deacons would need to steal a road win against either Florida State, Louisville, NC State, or Duke. I think all those things are a little too much to ask. Pencil Wake in for a 5-7 mark, but continued optimism as fans look toward the 2015 season.

Even the Losers: West Virginia

Over the past three seasons, 210 teams have participated in bowl games. 47 of those teams had losing records in the years immediately preceding their bowl game. This semi-regular piece will showcase the losers from 2013 who just might find themselves participating in Capital One Bowl Week in 2014. The fourth team we profile is West Virginia.

West Virginia

2013 Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

Summary: West Virginia began the year rather inauspiciously, narrowly edging IAA William and Mary by a touchdown in the season opener. The competition ratcheted up rather quickly, as the Mountaineers traveled to Norman to challenge Oklahoma in the season's second game. The Mountaineers acquitted themselves rather well as a large underdog, losing by just nine. They followed that up with an expected blowout of IA neophyte Georgia State. Then in their final non-conference game, the Mountaineers were shut out by Maryland 38-0. That marked their first loss to the Terrapins since the 2003 season, when the Terps beat them twice. In their next game, once again facing a team from the state of Oklahoma, the Mountaineers were huge underdogs against the Cowboys from Stillwater. In a result that ranks as one of the season's biggest upsets, West Virginia knocked off Oklahoma State. Standing 3-2 after five games, the Mountaineers appeared at worst to be headed to a twelfth consecutive bowl game. That optimism was destroyed in short order. Baylor shredded their defense for 73 points in the next game, followed by Texas Tech and Kansas State combining for 72 points of their own. Off a three game skid, the Mountaineers pulled another huge upset, winning at TCU. After an overtime home loss to Texas, Kansas and Iowa State were the final two teams remaining on the schedule. A win in both would not guarantee a bowl, but would make West Virginia bowl eligible. First up was a trip to Kansas to face a Jayhawk team reeling from 27 consecutive conference losses. West Virginia allowed Kansas to score 31 unanswered points, and gave the Jayhawks their first Big 12 win since 2010 and their fist double-digit conference win since 2008! Wanting their fans to be even more depressed around the holidays, the Mountaineers proceeded to blow a 24-point lead in the season finale against Iowa State, consigning them to their first losing season since 2001. If you had told Mountaineer fans before the season started that they would beat both Oklahoma State and TCU, many would have probably assumed they were in for a special season. Of course, you probably would have said that with a maniacal laugh (you big jerk), so they would know something was afoot.

What Did the Mountaineers Do Well?
This is a tough one as West Virginia was either mediocre or bad on both sides of the ball in 2013. They did rank thirteenth in punting average with Nick O'Toole averaging over 44 yards per kick. Of course, O'Toole had plenty of practice, as the Mountaineers punted 6.1 times per game after punting just 4.3 and 3.5 times per game in Dana Holgorsen's first two seasons.

What Didn't the Mountaineers Do Well?
The Mountaineers did not do a lot well in 2013, so there a lot of areas to choose from. How about, protect the football? West Virginia committed 32 turnovers in 2013. Only five teams (Texas Tech, Hawaii, Tulsa, Washington State, and Southern Miss) committed more. The Mountaineers committed at least one turnover in each game, and in a third of their games committed at least four. On the bight side, when they did not commit at least four turnovers, they had a 4-4 record.

The Mountaineers Over the Past Four Years:
The following table lists West Virginia's performance (in conference play only) in a few key categories and their respective conference rank in those categories. To help you read the table here is a handy translator.
Conf: The Conference West Virginia played in. With the ever-changing college football landscape, this is helpful.
Coach: Who was leading these yahoos into battle?
Rec: Conference Record
YPP: Yards per play. The number of yards per play the Mountaineers averaged in conference play.
YPA: Yards per play allowed. The number of yards per play the Mountaineers allowed in conference play.
Net: Yards per play net. The difference in YPP and YPA. Higher is better.
OTD: Offensive touchdowns. Touchdowns scored by the offense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
DTD: Defensive touchdowns. Touchdowns allowed by the defense (no kick, punt, interception, or other returns are counted) in conference play.
Pythag: Adjusted Pythagorean Record. Take offensive touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and plug them into a handy formula to estimate the number of conference wins. For a full rundown of the APR, continue reading here.

Did you forget how dominant the 2010 West Virginia defense was? Under the late Bill Stewart, the Mountaineers defense featured seven players that would be drafted over the next two years including first round pick Bruce Irvin. Current coach Dana Holgorsen was hired to be the offensive coordinator and coach in waiting for the 2011 season, but wound up getting the big job one season early after Stewart resigned. His debut was superb. The offensive guru led the Mountaineers to the best offense in the Big East, and perhaps more importantly, the conference championship. In the Orange Bowl, the Mountaineers obliterated Clemson and set up expectations for an even better encore in the Big 12. The Mountaineers reeled off five consecutive victories to begin the 2012 campaign, and rose as to number five in the AP Poll. However, even during the hot start, the defense was an obvious liability, giving up 63 and 45 points in wins, yes I wrote wins, over Baylor and Texas. The offense, led by future high draft picks Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey managed to hold serve early, but could not compensate for the defensive ineptitude as the season wore on. The Mountaineers lost five of their last seven regular season games, allowing over 43 points per game to their Big 12 conference mates! Then, in a bowl clash with former conference rival Syracuse, the Mountaineers completed their collapse with a 24-point loss in New York City. Smith, Austin, and Bailey were all drafted in the fist three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft, and the Mountaineers struggled to replace them. Unfortunately, the defense remained one of the worst in the Big 12, and the Mountaineers endured the indignity of a losing season. 

The 2014 Schedule:
The Mountaineers have an unenviable first game as they take on Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Following that almost assured loss, the Mountaineers should have a chance to lick their wounds as they host IAA Towson the following week. The Tigers are certainly a formidable foe, beating Connecticut in their opener last season and playing for the IAA Championship just six weeks ago. However, West Virginia can reasonably expect to win that game. What follows, is perhaps the most important game of the season for West Virginia, a rematch with Maryland in College Park. If they can beat the Terrapins, they will need just four conference wins to attain bowl eligibility. Lose here, and a bowl game may be out of reach. In league play, the Mountaineers do benefit from five home games. For the most part however, they should be very challenging with Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU all coming to Morgantown. Its not unthinkable for the Mountaineers to be favored in only one of those games (Kansas). Meanwhile, their four road trips come against Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech. Again, the Mountaineers may well be favored in only one of those games (Iowa State) and depending on how the season turns out (the Iowa State game is once again the finale), they could be underdogs in all four.

Reasons for Optimism:
Holgorsen's reputation as an offensive guru. In stints at Texas Tech, Houston, and Oklahoma State (from 2007 through 2010) as an offensive coordinator before coming to Morgantown, Holgorsen's teams all averaged at least 40 points per game each season. In his first two seasons at Morgantown, his teams averaged 37.6 and 39.5 points per game respectively. The Mountaineers lost three great offensive skill position players from the 2012 team. We'll give Holgorsen a mulligan. In 2013, no quarterback emerged as a star. Obviously, Holgorsen must shoulder a great deal of that blame since he determines who to recruit and then who to play. However, based on his track record, its clear he can coax points out of an offense. Barring some unforeseen defensive reinforcements, the offense will once again be forced to carry West Virginia on their sojourn through the Big 12. Remember, despite their lack of explosiveness, the Mountaineers still ranked sixth in the Big 12 in yards per play. With improved quarterback play, it wouldn't be a shock to see them move a little closer towards the top of the conference in that department.

Final Prognosis:
Playing nine conference games, especially in a ten team league is commendable and results in a true league champion. However, it is not a recipe for getting a middling team to bowl eligibility. The Big 12 is deep, and outside of Kansas, their are no gimmes on the conference schedule. With Alabama on the schedule, the best a West Virginia fan can hope for is a 2-1 mark in non-conference action. With that in mind, I think the Mountaineers will beat Kansas at home, and pull off one home upset from the quartet of Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU. I also think they win one of their road conference games, though it may not be against Iowa State. Add it all up, and the Mountaineers will top out at five wins in 2014, and have Dana Holgorsen squarely on the hot seat as the offseason arrives.