Last week, we looked at how Pac-12 teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.
Once again, here are the 2015 Pac-12 standings.
lost by 42 points to Utah! That defeat tampers down their numbers. Couple that with the fact that the Ducks were unusually permissive on defense, and you can see why Oregon posted middling APR numbers. On the other hand, while Washington won just four of nine conference games, they were absurdly dominant in three of those wins. The Huskies defeated Arizona, Oregon State, and Washington State by a combined 126 points with no win coming by less than five touchdowns!
One of the more interesting developments that has coincided with the Pac-12’s expansion has been the absolute disappearance of Colorado’s homefield advantage since joining the league. The table below lists Colorado’s home and road splits in conference play from their final six seasons in the Big 12 with the same splits over their first five seasons in the Pac-12.
cratering of the football program. And to that point, I would 100% agree. In the interest of analyzing this further, I decided to look at a metric that takes into account how well a team is ‘supposed’ to perform and judges them based on expectations, not raw results. I am talking of course, about the Las Vegas line or point spread. For the uninitiated (and churchgoing) audience, the point spread is an unbiased look at who should win a certain game, and more importantly, by how much. Using the points spread, I calculated the Spread Adjusted Margin (SAM) for each Colorado conference game from 2005-2015 and determined the per game averages for their home and away contests. The SAM is pretty easy to calculate. Here are two examples. Say Colorado is expected to beat a team by 3 points. They win by 7. Their SAM for this game is +4. This is, the margin they were supposed to win by (3) subtracted from how much they actually won by (7). Now say Colorado is expected to win by 10 points. Instead they lose by 2 points. Their SAM for this game is -12. That is, the margin they were expected to win by (10) subtracted from how much they actually won by (-2). Easy right? Here are the results separated by their conference affiliation.
Marijuana) as to why this might have occurred, but I’d be interested to hear if any readers have (preferably crackpot) theories on why this might be.