Overall: 11-10
UNLV +40 Ohio State
Last week, the spread was pretty much right on the money for Ohio State in their game against the Black Knights from Army. In my post, I picked the game (incorrectly) at +30 for Army, but at other outlets and on ESPN, I saw it at either 30.5 or 31, which is exactly where it ended up. I give that background to logically quantify this spread. Its not a direct apples to apples comparison, but if this spread is to be believed, then Army would basically be a ten-point favorite on a neutral field against UNLV. To be fair, the Rebels did endure perhaps the largest outright loss in gambling history earlier in the season. However, the Rebels responded to that disappointment by blowing out Idaho in Moscow and have had a week to prepare for their trip to Columbus. Meanwhile, Ohio State has had two Power Five games and a clash with Army's unique offense before facing the Rebels. With the Big 10's expanded conference schedule, this is the last non-conference game Ohio State will play before the postseason as conference play resumes next week with a challenging trip to Piscataway. Despite their loss to Howard, the Rebels actually have solid per play numbers through two games. They are averaging north of eight yards per play (granted against inferior competition) and have scored at least 40 points in each of their first two games. Precocious freshman quarterback Armani Rogers has thrown for over 400 yards and rushed for over 100 yards and will likely be the quarterback of the next bowl eligible UNLV team (it could happen this year!). I don't expect UNLV to come close to their seasonal averages against Ohio State, but if they can get to ten points they should be able to cover this bloated number.
Maryland -3.5 Central Florida
Through two games, and really just one, the public perception of Maryland has changed drastically. That the Terps crushed FCS Towson in their second game would not have moved the needle a great deal regardless of their performance in the opener. However, by beating Texas and the wunderkind Tom Herman in Austin, Maryland ratcheted expectations (at least marginally) in D.J. Durkin's second season. Despite losing their starting quarterback, Tyrrell Pigrome, to injury in the second half and allowing Texas to score two non-offensive touchdowns to keep the game close, Maryland beat the Longhorns for the first time ever (and also scored on Texas for the first time). With Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in their division, to say nothing of improving Indiana and established Michigan State, anything beyond a bowl game is probably a pipe dream, but the Terps have served notice that they should be competitive. Contrast this to last season when they lost to the four teams on their schedule that finished ranked by a combined 160 points. With the tough road ahead, Maryland will need every victory they can get. Thus, they will likely not overlook a Central Florida team that took them to overtime in Orlando last season. The Knights are probably ready to play some football as they have not taken the field since the Thursday before Labor Day. In that game, the Knights dominated their in-state 'rival' from Florida International. The Knights led by 30 at the half before easing off the throttle in a 61-17 win. The offensive struggles from 2016 seemed to dissipate as quarterback McKenzie Milton averaged an obscene 17 yards per pass! However, it should be noted that Florida International struggled in their follow-up game against Alcorn State. I would be hesitant to read too much into the Knights' big win as they also laid 53 on the Panthers in 2016. Maryland has had a week off to prepare for this game and it will be the second started by freshman quarterback Kasim Hill who played well against Texas after entering the game and was not challenged against Towson. Couple that with the homefield advantage and Maryland should win this game by at least a touchdown.
TCU +13 Oklahoma State
Based on early returns there appears to be three legitimate contenders for the Big 12 title in 2017. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU are all undefeated with a road win against a fellow Power Five team and glowing scoring margins. Of course, conference play has not even started yet so potential darkhorses like Kansas State, Texas, and West Virginia are still lurking in the weeds. However, methinks this conference opener will go a long way toward determining the participants in the new non-divisional Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma State has looked peerless in the early going, averaging 54 points per game and outscoring their opponents by 110 points through three games. The Cowboys were quite impressive in their most recent game, scoring touchdowns on their first seven possessions against Pitt before reeling the offense in. Despite their impressive start, I would posit the argument that Oklahoma State is probably overvalued here by close to a touchdown. The Cowboys have crushed their opponents, with two of the games coming away from Stillwater, but how good are the teams they have beaten? The Cowboys scored 59 points on Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane allowed 96 points in their next two games against fellow mid-majors Louisiana-Lafayette and Toledo. The Cowboys scored 44 points against South Alabama, but the Jaguars allowed 47 points in their opener against Ole Miss. Finally, the Cowboys decimated Pitt, but the Panthers were beaten soundly by Penn State and narrowly edged FCS member Youngstown State (while allowing over seven yards per play to the Penguins). Suffice it to say, the competition has not been all that intense. TCU will be their toughest challenge yet, and while the Horned Frogs struggled a bit with SMU last week, keep in mind it was the dreaded 'sandwich game', coming between a trip to Arkansas and this foray to Stillwater. Plus, the Mustangs are usually the more motivated bunch in that game thanks to TCU's status as a Power Five program now. Since joining the Big 12, TCU is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog (2-0 as a double-digit road dog), with five outright upsets. Granted, two of those failures to cover came in Stillwater, but this line feels way too high. Take the Horny Toads to keep this one close.
Miami (Ohio) +2.5 Central Michigan
Assuming the Redhawks can overcome their fourth quarter collapse against Cincinnati last week, they should be a solid play in the conference opener for both teams. With a chance to claim the Victory Bell for the first time since 2005, Miami blew an eleven-point fourth quarter lead thanks to some questionable decisions by players and coaches. Miami may be disheartened by their rivalry loss, but the goal of a conference title is still in play. Remember, this team did not quit last season when they began 0-6. Instead, they rallied for an improbable bowl bid and nearly beat Mississippi State in the postseason. As long as their psyche is fine, I think the wrong team is favored in this game. The only thing Central Michigan has proven, as has pretty much every other FBS team since 2010, is that they can beat Kansas. Outside of their road whipping of the Jayhawks, the Chippewas have needed overtime (and six turnovers) to dispatch an FCS team and been blown out by a decent Power Five team. Central Michigan is the home team, but Miami has been a lively road dog under Chuck Martin, going 12-6 ATS with three outright upsets and a horde of near misses. Look for the Redhawks to take this one outright as well.
Wake Forest -4 Appalachian State
I must say, when examining Wake's schedule in the preseason, I assumed this game would be a loss. However, Wake has played their best football yet under Dave Clawson in the early going and seem to be pretty good this year. A second consecutive bowl game is certainly within reach, and who knows, perhaps the Deacons can upset one of the 'Big 3' (Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville) within their division. Through three games, Wake Forest has scored 131 points (granted against less than stellar competition). In Clawson's first year (remember the one that brought you the scoreless classic with Virginia Tech?), Wake did not score their 131st point until the ninth game! In took until the seventh game in 2015! Anyway, the offense, while it may not remain potent, is at least functional. The running game has me feeling particularly optimistic as the Deacons could average north of four yards per carry for the first time since 2010 and have a 1000-yard rusher for the first time since 2005. Don't get me wrong, Appalachian State still scares me, and I hate the fact that this game is in the mountains, but I feel much better about it than I did in July. Not only because of Wake's improvement, but also because the Mountaineers have not looked as strong as expected. Appalachian State opened the season traveling to Athens, and while I did not expect them to emerge from between the hedges with a victory, they were not very competitive. They trailed by 31 points entering the fourth quarter and outside of a few nice runs by quarterback Taylor Lamb, were not able to move the ball at all. They followed that up with an expected thrashing of Savannah State, but one shouldn't gleam much from that game as the Tigers were beaten just as soundly by Montana of the FCS. Finally, Appalachian State traveled to San Marcos to face a Texas State team with just a single FBS win since the start of the 2016 season. The Mountaineers were outgained by nearly 100 yards and averaged fewer yards per play while escaping with a 20-13 win. Historically, Appalachian State has given Wake fits, and even beaten them a number of times. My Wake Forest career began with a Thursday night loss to the Mountaineers. However, since joining FBS in 2014, Appalachian State is just 1-4 ATS against Power Five teams (I'm sure you remember the one cover). In addition, despite rarely being a home dog, they are 0-2 in the role since joining FBS, with both spreads clocking in below a touchdown (as this one does). I'm usually slow to come around, but I'm drinking the Wake Koolaid. The Deacons, even on the road, seem to be a touchdown better than the Mountaineers.
Georgia State Pick Em Charlotte
This game is the early favorite for least consequential final score of the season. Both Georgia State and Charlotte are relatively new to FBS and outside of a nice run at the end of 2015 for the Panthers, neither has had much success. Charlotte did pick up their first win as an FBS program against Georgia State two years ago, but these schools have combined for just twelve total wins against FBS programs in about six and a half combined years of play at the FBS level. Yuck. Anyway, I'm backing a team in this game that is currently averaging all of five points per game. Of course, had James Franklin not iced their kicker in the closing seconds, Georgia State could be averaging six and a half points per game. So there's that. Part of the reason for Georgia State's low offensive numbers is the fact they have only played two games and one of those came against Penn State. In the other game, when the Panthers reopened Turner Field, their quarterback, Conner Manning, was hurt and they fell to Tennessee State. Manning did play against Penn State, but put up dreadful numbers against the Nittany Lions. However, he played well for the Panthers last season and is likely licking his chops at the thought of playing a Charlotte defense that is allowing nearly nine yards per pass. Charlotte has played a strong team (Kansas State), but their secondary was also torched by Eastern Michigan and an FCS team (NC A&T). Their offense has not been much better, as they scored 14 total points against Eastern Michigan and Kansas State. College Football Final won't lead with the highlights from this game, but the money you can make from it spends just the same. All the Panthers have to do is win, and they should get Shawn Elliott his first win as a full-time head coach here.
Florida -3 Kentucky
Kentucky is on a nice run, having gone 10-3 over their last thirteen regular season games since starting 0-2 in 2016. In that span, the Wildcats have won more road games (four) than they won from 2010-2015 (three). Can Kentucky take the proverbial next step and win some conference games to put them in contention in the SEC East? Beating the Gators would go a long way toward that goal, especially considering they have lost thirty in a row to Florida. So how good is Kentucky? Can they break that streak? Last week I opined that South Carolina might be the least statistically impressive 2-0 team in the country. With the Wildcats winning in Columbia last week, they may have taken that title. Kentucky won the game by ten points, but they were actually slightly outgained by the Gamecocks and averaged nearly a yard and a half less per play. The Wildcats pulled off two huge fourth down stops while South Carolina missed three field goals (granted none were chip shots) and an extra point to boot. Previously the Wildcats had beaten Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky with better, but similarly mediocre statistical performances. Expecting Kentucky to win another game, especially against a team with the pedigree of Florida does not seem wise. Florida is coming off an emotional win against Tennessee, so there could be concern for a letdown. However, Gator fans should be cautiously optimistic about the offense after their performance against Tennessee. Even when removing the (don't call it a) Hail Mary pass against the Vols, Florida averaged a healthy 5.67 yards per play against the Vols. That's not a great number by any stretch, but it shows their putrid showing against Michigan likely had more to do with the quality of opponent than general offensive ineptitude. Kentucky has played decent defense through their first three games, but they ain't Michigan. The defense did get gashed by the Vols on the ground, but even with a good showing against Eastern Kentucky, the Wildcats are averaging under four yards per carry through the first three games so its unlikely they can have similar success. With a line right at a field goal, I can't take the underdog unless I have a belief they can win the game outright. I don't get that feeling here. Kentucky has actually performed poorly as a home dog under Mark Stoops, going 2-10-2 ATS in the role. That plus the general trend of this rivalry (the smallest margin of victory for Florida in this run is three points in 2003) makes the Gators the play here.
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