Another Summer of Polls Part II: The Most Over-Rated Teams (Since 2005)

Last week, in our ongoing examination of the AP Poll, we looked at teams pollsters probably should have ranked. This week, we are going to look at teams the pollsters probably over-rated. Once again the numbers we will be comparing are the final rankings from the AP Poll and the SRS rankings. For a primer on SRS, follow this link.

Since 2005, which teams have seen the biggest positive disparity between their final AP ranking and their SRS ranking (i.e. were ranked too high)? Glad you asked. The top-ten (actually 13) are listed below.

Using this methodology, Louisville finishes as the most over-rated team since 2005. The Cardinals won the final Big East football title and then upset a one-loss Florida team in the Sugar Bowl to finish in the top-fifteen. That plus the fact that the team was quarterbacked by Teddy Bridgewater and coached by Charlie Strong is what most people will remember. Fewer people will remember that this team also lost at home to Connecticut. The SRS has a much better memory than most people and thus incorporates the Connecticut loss as well as the blowout loss to Syracuse and a host of unimpressive wins (like the four-point victory against winless Southern Miss) into the Cardinals’ final ranking.

While Louisville was technically a member of a ‘major’ conference in 2012, eight of the thirteen over-rated team played in non-BCS or Group of Five conferences. Two teams played in the Big East, the weakest BCS conference, one team played in the AAC which owned the Big East’s grandfathered BCS bid for one season, and only two played in a current Power Five conference (Iowa and Wisconsin). I’m a mid-major apologist, but if you want to make the argument that mid-major teams are over-rated by the final AP Poll, well, I think you have a decent case.

Another common trait of these over-rated teams is that they tended to finish in the lower reaches of the poll. The thirteen teams combined for an average finish of about 18.5. If we remove Iowa (top-ten finish) from the equation, the average drops an additional spot to 19.5.

Finally nine of the thirteen over-rated teams won their respective conference (or at least finished tied for first). So, if you want an easy shorthand for determining the most over-rated team in the final AP Poll of the upcoming college football season, look for a mid-major conference champion ranked 19th or lower. And smugly think to yourself how much better a five-loss SEC team would look in their place.