2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: AAC

Last week we looked at how AAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 AAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a line of demarcation to determine whether or not a team significantly over or under-performed relative to their APR. Temple was the only team that saw their expected record differ significantly from their APR. The Owls finished with a winning conference record despite allowing more touchdowns than they scored. The Owls were not especially fortunate in close games, finishing 2-1 in one-score AAC contests. No, the disconnect between their record and APR can be explained by a pair of blowouts. The Owls lost to SMU and UCF in back-to-back weeks by a combined 66 points. In their five conference wins, the Owls only outscored their opponents by 62 total points (thirty total points in the four non-Connecticut games). Those uncharacteristic spankings tempered their overall APR numbers.

I'm Your Stepping Stone
In the Playoff era (since 2014), the AAC has been the preeminent Group of Five conference. The league has had at least one member institution finish ranked in the final AP Poll each season, has grabbed four of the six available NY6 slots (no other conference has more than one), and sent more coaches to Power Five jobs than nearly the rest of the Group of Five combined. The following table lists the AAC coaches that have leveled up each offseason.

After not having any coaches leave for Power Five jobs in the first offseason of the Playoff era, the American has sent at least one coach to a Power Five job each of the past five offseasons. With eight coaches moving to the big time, the AAC is well ahead of the other Group of Five leagues. Here is how the other four G5 conferences have fared in terms of sending their coaches to Power Five jobs.

The other four conferences have all sent coaches to the Power Five at about the same rate. The MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt have all seen three coaches get Power Five jobs while Conference USA has had two such coaches.

While the AAC has sent the most coaches to Power Five jobs, it’s fair to question their success (or lack thereof) once they get those bigger jobs. Hiring coaches is often a crapshoot, but some of the more notable AAC graduations have already been fired. Chad Morris did not finish his second season at Arkansas, Willie Taggart lasted less than two seasons at Florida State (although that was his second job after leaving South Florida), and Scott Frost has yet to lead Nebraska to the postseason. For comparison, I have included the aggregate winning percentage at the Power Five level of the coaches from each Group of Five conference. Note that Taggart’s time at Oregon and Florida State are included here.

Thanks for reading. Check back next week when we look at the yards per play numbers for the ACC.