2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Sun Belt

Last week we looked at how Sun Belt teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 Sun Belt standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Sun Belt teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as an arbitrary threshold to determine if a team significantly over or underperformed relative to their APR. By that standard, Arkansas State significantly exceeded their APR. The Red Wolves finished 4-1 in close conference games, meaning eighty percent of their league wins came by a touchdown or less. South Alabama significantly undershot their expected record based on APR. They also underperformed relative to their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week.

Paul Petrino: The Sun Belt Savant
Even hardcore college football fans may have a hard time recalling Paul Petrino. They are probably intimately familiar with his brother, but like Bill Dooley, Paul is often overshadowed by his sibling. This is doubly true now that Idaho has dropped down to the FCS level. Despite the fact that Idaho no longer plays in the FBS, I like to highlight forgotten or overlooked greatness on this blog, and Paul Petrino's Against the Spread (ATS) record in the Sun Belt is one for the ages.

Before we dive into Petrino's ATS mark as head coach of the Vandals, here is a quick history of Idaho's nomadic existence since they returned to FBS in 1996. The Vandals played in the Big West for five seasons (1996-2000) before becoming a charter member of the Sun Belt in 2001. They only lasted four seasons in the fledgling conference before joining the WAC in 2005. The Vandals stayed in the WAC until the conference dissolved following the 2012 season. They played as an independent for one season before rejoining the Sun Belt in 2014. After four seasons, they dropped down to the FCS level where they currently reside in the Big Sky Conference. Petrino coached the team for the entirety of their second run in the Sun Belt (and their one season as an independent). During those four seasons, the Vandals did not post a great Sun Belt record, finishing 13-19 in league play. They did win six games league games in 2016, but in the other three seasons, their conference record was 7-17. However, even though they weren't winning games on the field, they were cleaning up for those brave enough to bet on them in Sun Belt games.

From 2014-2017, Idaho posted a phenomenal ATS record of 24-8 in conference play. That was by far the best of any Sun Belt team in that span.

The Vandals were especially good on the road, failing to cover just once in an away conference game over those four seasons.

This amazing ATS run is likely just a lot of noise and randomness. Idaho was just 5-7 ATS in non-conference games over the same time period. I doubt Petrino had a horseshoe or other lucky trinket he deployed specifically for conference games. Still, this is further proof that amazing things happen all the time in college football if you know where to look. A coach with a receding hairline, a much famous older brother, and a career record of 28-55 was a veritable ATM for degenerates a few seasons ago.

That concludes our YPP and APR rundowns of the 2019 season. I hope we get to do this for 2020, but I have my doubts. As a resident of South Carolina, it pains me to say I have probably seen more folks with Confederate memorabilia than masks on my trips to the grocery and drug stores. Another spike in infections could certainly jeopardize the 2020 season, not to mention the health of many people in this nation. If we don't get a 2020 season, I think I will do weekly YPP and APR lookbacks at other seasons. I have only been doing them since 2015, so we missed out on a lot. Want to know how YPP saw the SEC in 2005 or how APR saw the Big East in 2007? If the 2020 season is canceled, that will be your consolation. In the meantime, content will be sporadic on the blog over the summer. I'm working on a few projects, so there will be posts, just not weekly. Check back every now and then, and as always, thanks for reading.