First Half Point Differential Part IV: Using 1HPD to Handicap Conference Title Games and the College Football Playoff

Is the title to this post too long? Yes, but I couldn't think of a better way to title it other than spell it out explicitly. For a primer on 1HPD, check the other posts in this series. It ain't that complicated.

I have 1HPD conference data going back six seasons to the beginning of the College Football Playoff era, so we might as well see if it provides any value in picking the winner (both straight up and Against the Spread) in certain postseason games. I didn't look at all bowl games since there can be varying levels of motivation in such contests. By contrast, conference title games and the College Football Playoff are practically guaranteed to have motivated participants.

Let's start by looking at the Group of Five. If you knew nothing else about the teams participating in conference title games and merely used 1HPD unadjusted for strength of schedule, you would have done pretty well in picking the outright winners and decent when going against the spread.

The MAC would have been responsible for nearly all of your losses at the window, with the lesser team winning half the time outright and covering five of six times. Otherwise, 1HPD is 16-2 straight up and 12-5-1 ATS in picking winners. Note there have been two Sun Belt Championship Games, but in the second game, both Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette entered with an identical 1HPD, so it is thrown out as ties have not been a part of college football for a quarter century.

When we move to the Power Five, 1HPD does an even better job of picking winners against the spread.

In the Power Five, there are no MAC outliers dragging down the numbers.

Overall, in 51 conference title games 1HPD has correctly predicted the outright winner 39 times (76.5%) and ATS winner 31 times (62%) with one push. Not too shabby. But what of the College Football Playoff? Alas, the predictive accuracy is not as strong.

1HPD has been as reliable as a coin flip both straight up and ATS in College Football Playoff games. Note one game is not included as I use 1HPD in conference play and Notre Dame does not belong to a conference (yet). One potential reason for 1HPD's underwhelming performance in the College Football Playoff versus conference title games is the fact it is not adjusted for opponent. The College Football Playoff features teams from different conferences (usually) instead of teams from the same conference. Schedule strength between two teams from different conferences has the potential to be much greater than schedule strength between two teams from the same conference (duh). That being said, the way 1HPD has performed in handicapping conference title games gives me confidence it is a solid measure of team strength.

We'll be taking a little break here at Statistically Speaking, but we'll return in three weeks (the first Thursday in August). Instead of any previews or gambling nuggets related to the 2020 season, I am operating on the assumption the 2020 season will not be played. Coronavirus numbers are simply too high to justify endangering an unpaid labor force and the testing required to put on a season (even an abbreviated one) would sap testing resources from communities that need them. Let me be clear, I am not a journalist and do not have sources other than what any person with a television set, internet connection, or podcast subscription has. With the 2020 season unlikely to be played, I will focus my efforts on Yards per Play and Adjusted Pythagorean Record recaps of seasons gone by. I have been making YPP and APR posts for the past five seasons, but I have ten years worth of data that has not been given any type of write up (2005-2014). My first YPP flashback will be on a conference season near and dear to my heart, the 2006 ACC. My alma mater ended up winning their first conference title in over three decades and likely the only title in my lifetime. I have some other conferences and years lined up, but I wanted to get an idea of what my readers want. I know there are at least a few folks who find their way here on a regular basis, so let me know in the comments what conference and year combination you would like to see recapped in either YPP or APR. I feel like it is going to be a long time before we can enjoy a beautiful fall Saturday, so in the meantime, let's relive some from the recent past.