YPP Throwback: The 2012 Western Athletic Conference

After the rousing popularity of last week's post on the Sun Belt, I decided to take a look back at another forgotten conference, the final season of the WAC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2012 WAC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each team. This includes conference play only. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games (or six in this case). Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2012 season, which teams in the WAC met this threshold? Here are WAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Louisiana Tech significantly exceeded their expected record, but the Bulldogs were not especially lucky in close games, finishing 1-1 in one-score conference games. The big disparity is primarily due to their defensive breakdowns in the second half of conference play. In their first three conference games, Louisiana Tech posted a respectable defense, allowing 5.79 yards per play (going against the three worst offenses in the WAC). However, when the schedule toughened, the Bulldogs were a sieve. Over their final three conference games, the Bulldogs allowed 7.83 yards per play. Despite boasting a strong offense of their own, it was not enough to overcome their defensive limitations.

Utah State Deserved a BCS-Bowl Bid
Last week's post on the 2005 Sun Belt got me to thinking about conferences in flux, and there was no league in more flux than the WAC in 2012. Join me as we pour one out for the gone, but not forgotten Western Athletic Conference.

In its 51 years of existence, the WAC accomplished a great deal. It was the home of the 1984 national champions, it created the first super-conference in 1996, and sent its champion to BCS bowl games three times in four seasons from 2006 to 2009. In addition, three of the original seven founding members are now in the Power Five (here's to social climbing). However, by 2012, the conference was running on fumes. The 2010 season saw two WAC teams finish in the top eleven of the final AP Poll, but Boise State jumped the sinking ship and moved to the Mountain West. Following a 2011 season that saw one team win more than seven games, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada also left for the Mountain West. For the 2012 season, the WAC added FBS newcomers Texas State and Texas-San Antonio to fill out its roster. With seven members, the WAC forged on, and actually enjoyed a pretty successful season considering the circumstances. Four teams, including the Roadrunners from San Antonio won at least eight games, three teams spent time in the AP Poll, and both San Jose State and Utah State finished the season ranked. The top three teams in the conference, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, and Utah State were also all coached by gentlemen that would go on to have less than stellar success in the Pac-12.

That's not a criticism of those coaches as much as it is a statement of fact. While they did not enjoy great success at their stops in the Pac-12, there is no question they did great work in 2012. So lets celebrate that. Despite the fact that none of the trio sniffed a BCS bowl bid (Louisiana Tech didn't even play in a bowl game), you can craft an argument the best non-BCS teams called the WAC home in 2012.

2012 was an odd year for non-BCS conference (otherwise known as mid-major) teams. The Kellen Moore era at Boise State had come to an end in 2011, so the Broncos were rebuilding somewhat. Former mid-major stalwarts TCU and Utah were now in BCS conferences. This led to a relative power vacuum and allowed some new blood to potentially qualify for a BCS bowl. Prior to 2012, six of the seven BCS bowl slots that had gone to non-BCS teams were gobbled up by that trio.

Eventually, the BCS bowl bid for non-BCS teams (remember non-BCS teams were not guaranteed a BCS bid) came down to the MAC Championship Game. In a thrilling overtime affair, Northern Illinois defeated Kent State to lock up an Orange Bowl berth. The Huskies acquitted themselves well for three quarters against Florida State, but tired from all that mushing in the fourth quarter, and eventually fell 31-10. Despite their solid showing for three quarters in the Orange Bowl, the Huskies were not the best non-BCS team in 2012. Not even close.

So which non-BCS team was some combination of best or most deserving to play in a BCS bowl in 2012? Heading into the postseason, there were five non-BCS teams that finished with two or fewer losses: Boise State, Kent State, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, and Utah State. Let's go to the tape.

Northern Illinois was the only non-BCS team to have less than two losses, so we'll give them a bye. First let's find the best of the remaining quartet. The easiest team to eliminate is obviously Kent State. The Golden Flashes were riding a ten-game winning streak heading into their showdown with Northern Illinois, but outside of a shocking upset of Rutgers their best wins were against a trio of bowl-eligible MAC teams. And their one loss...Yikes. The Golden Flashes were the last FBS team Kentucky beat under Joker Phillips and the game was not close. Obviously, the Wildcats are an SEC team, but that didn't stop them from losing to a seven-win team from the Sun Belt, so Kent State gets no credit for losing by almost five touchdowns. Next up, we can eliminate Boise State. The Broncos failed to beat a BCS conference team (in the regular season) for just the second time under Chris Petersen, and their season-opening loss to Michigan State ended up not being that impressive as the Spartans finished 7-6. They didn't record many impressive victories in conference play either, knocking off just two Mountain West teams that finished bowl-eligible, while losing to San Diego State. They did knock off BYU in non-conference play, but that game was on the Smurf Turf and the Broncos failed to record an offensive touchdown. That leaves the two WAC stalwarts, San Jose State and Utah State. The Spartans had the more impressive non-conference loss, falling by three to eventual Rose Bowl champ Stanford while Utah State lost by two to eventual Rose Bowl runner-up (and six-loss) Wisconsin. The Spartans also had more quality wins, beating three solid opponents (Navy, San Diego State, and Texas-San Antonio) on the road. However, on the field, the Spartans lost by three-touchdowns at home to Utah State, so we'll give the edge to the Aggies. So how do the Aggies compare to Northern Illinois? Pretty favorably. Northern Illinois also lost a tight game to a Big 10 opponent, but 2012 was not a vintage Iowa season. Sure the coaching staff probably made life miserable for black players, but the team managed just two additional FBS wins after escaping the Huskies in their opener. As for their wins, outside of Kent State, the Huskies don't have a whole lot of heft. They get credit for beating a BCS conference team in Kansas, but that game was very close, and the Jayhawks were very bad. In addition, while it is not captured in the table, the Huskies escaped a bad Army team in non-conference play. Add it all up, and Utah State was more deserving of that Orange Bowl bid than the Huskies. Could they have beaten the Seminoles? Well, that's not really the point. They enjoyed an historic season and were a few plays away from something really special. With the Aggies, along with the Spartans and to a lesser extent the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, the WAC went out a winner in 2012.

Next week we will switch things up a bit and look at past Adjusted Pythagorean Records (APR), starting with the SEC in 2007.