2021 Bracket Advice: What About Mid-Majors with Great Records?

This week, we are taking a break from our weekly football recaps and offering you some advice on how to make selections in your office pool before the NCAA Tournament gets started (hopefully). Last year, I penned a magnum opus for a tournament that did not get played, but all of the things I wrote are still applicable to this field. Long story short, think long and hard before you pick Alabama, Arkansas, or even Michigan to make a run to the Final Four. You can thank me later. This year, instead of looking at teams that might be more likely to flame out early in the tournament, I wanted to help you find some underdogs to play on in the first round. 

The 2020-21 college basketball season has been anything but normal. Non-conference games were more rare, games were postponed or canceled almost daily, and the Ivy League didn't play at all. Thanks to this unique scheduling situation, a pair of mid (or maybe even low) major teams managed to put up sterling won/loss records. Colgate and Winthrop enter the NCAA Tournament with one loss apiece. However, neither are in the final edition of the AP Poll. Does this happen often? To answer that question, I looked at every instance since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 where a team qualified for the field, finished with no more than two regular season losses, and was not ranked in the top-ten of the final AP Poll. Prior to 2021, it had happened eleven times before. Those eleven teams are listed below below along with their record, conference, final poll ranking, eventual NCAA seed, and NCAA tournament result. 

While none of the teams managed to make it into the top-ten despite their great records, they still got respect from the AP writers. Eight teams finished the season ranked and the only teams that entered with a single loss both topped out at number twelve. Also, props to my mother's alma mater, The College of Charleston, that appears on this list twice in a three season span (John Kresse was way underrated by the general college basketball public). But who cares about rankings, you came here for bracket advice. Well, based on tournament results, its probably not a good idea to take either Colgate or Winthrop to get to the second weekend. None of these eleven teams advanced further than the second round. However, we should note that only one team was favored by seed to get past the second round. In 1990, La Salle was awarded a four seed, so theoretically they did not quite live up to expectations when they blew a large halftime lead and lost to fifth seeded Clemson. Teams seeded like Colgate and Winthrop have actually done better than expected. Granted the sample size is quite small, but four other teams were given double-digit seeds (NC A&T, Penn, Charleston, and Stephen F Austin). Three of those four pulled first round upsets, with North Carolina A&T being the lone double-digit seed to be eliminated in the first round. Colgate and Winthrop might not be household names, but if history is any indication, one or both would be a solid first round upset pick. 

Don't worry, we're not done just yet. Check back Wednesday for one additional bracket advice post. We'll examine undefeated teams and see how Gonzaga stacks up compared to previous teams that entered the NCAA Tournament with an unblemished record.