Editor's Note: I made a change to the picks after posting this on Wednesday. I took Hawaii +3 off and added UCF +7. We'll see if my change of heart made any difference.
Last Week: 2-5
Overall 37-33
Wyoming +14 Boise State
Wyoming finally broke their four-game losing streak last week against Colorado State, and in the process scored nearly as many points in one game (31) as they had during the first half of conference play (38). The victory does not mean the offense is fixed, but with winnable games against Utah State and Hawaii to come, it should mean the Cowboys are bowl eligible for the fifth consecutive (excluding the pandemic shortened) season. That would be quite an accomplishment for Wyoming, but I think it is still fair to question if they have reached their ceiling under Craig Bohl. For all the wins the Cowboys have under Bohl, they have pretty much wasted a very good Group of Five defense for the past half decade by not being able to put a good offense on the field. The Cowboys have not had an average or better Mountain West offense since 2016 when Josh Allen fell in their lap. If it takes a generational quarterback prospect to make your offense go, there is probably something fundamentally wrong. And don't forget, the offense cratered in Allen's final year in Laramie (2017), so it would seem when they get a generational talent, they are about a 50/50 proposition to be good on offense. Despite their offensive struggles, Wyoming has been a good play as a double digit road underdog under Bohl. While they are a mediocre 9-8 ATS overall as a double digit road underdog, they are 7-4 ATS in the role against Group of Five teams with the majority of their struggles coming when they faced Power Five teams. They are also 5-2 ATS against Boise State under Bohl, winning just once outright, but routinely keeping the game within the number, especially on the Smurf Turf where they are 3-0 ATS. Boise State is coming off a road upset of Fresno State where they Bulldogs turned the ball over three times. That result has inflated this line a bit (it should be closer to ten points), so grab up the value with the Cowboys.
East Carolina +5.5 Memphis
Mike Houston's third East Carolina team appeared to be well on their way to another losing season on the evening of September 18th. They opened the year with a two touchdown loss to Appalachian State in the undercard to Clemson/Georgia, then lost a tight home game to South Carolina, and found themselves down 17 points to at Marshall. An 0-3 start was looking them right in the non-patched eye. Then the Pirates rattled off 21 straight points aided by an onside kick recovery and upset the Thundering Herd. They followed that up by barely beating Charleston Southern, but once conference play began, the Pirates have been strong. They are 3-2 in AAC play with each of their victories coming by at least fifteen points and both losses coming by a touchdown or less, including one in overtime. This is the best East Carolina team in seven years and they may be able to put a scare in Cincinnati when the Bearcats visit over Thanksgiving weekend. They have also done well for bettors in this role, posting an 8-3 ATS mark as a road underdog. That would seem to be a perfect fit against a Memphis team that has struggled mightily as a favorite under Ryan Silverfield. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS as a home favorite under Silverfield and are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in any venue. This East Carolina team is sneaky good and might be able to pull off the outright upset against an inconsistent Memphis team.
Central Florida +7 SMU
Sonny Dykes has been a college football head coach for twelve seasons. He spent three seasons at Louisiana Tech (2010-2012), four at Cal (2013-2016) and he is currently in his fifth season at SMU (2017-present). Like his father before him, Dykes has been a pretty successful coach, guiding all three programs to bowl appearances and breaking into the AP Poll a combined five times (including three seasons in a row at SMU). However, none of his programs have ever finished ranked, primarily because they struggle in November. Across his twelve seasons, his teams are 18-26 straight up in November. Lest you think this is the product of his teams facing stiffer competition in November, they are also 15-29 ATS in (6-12 ATS as a favorite and 9-17 ATS as an underdog). And if you haven't been by a calendar lately, it just happens to be November. The Mustangs already lost last week in their first November game (as a favorite I might add) and now they face a Central Florida squad that has quietly won three straight (and played really good defense) after an evisceration at Cincinnati. SMU's hopes for an AAC title are infinitesimal, I think they drop their third in a row on Saturday.
UAB +4.5 Marshall
This is a rematch of the 2020 Conference USA Championship Game and a potential preview of the 2021 edition. Marshall is currently tied atop the East division of CUSA and while UAB trails UTSA by a game, they actually control their own destiny and would clinch their fourth consecutive title game appearance if they win out. The number here is very similar to last year's when UAB travelled to Marshall as about a four and a half to five point underdog. The Blazers shut Marshall out in the first half en route to a 22-13 victory. Since Bill Clark arrived in Birmingham in 2014, the Blazers have been one of the safest bets in the nation when catching points on the road against fellow Group of Five teams. They are 9-3 ATS with eight outright wins. Yes, they have won two thirds of their games as a road underdog against Group of Five teams! The Blazers dropped a home game to Rice three weeks ago that threw folks off the scent of how good they are, but that loss featured your usual suspects (missed field goal, turnover on downs, fumble deep in their own territory, etc.). Otherwise, the Blazers have been downright dominant against CUSA teams, allowing under four yards per play to their conference foes. Marshall is going to have to score a lot of points to beat the Blazers and cover this number. Since Bill Clark arrived, the Blazers are 30-4 in CUSA games when they hold their opponent under 30 points and 2-8 when they do not. Marshall hung 49 and 38 on the rotting corpses of North Texas and Florida International, but UAB is a on a different level. Take the Blazers and don't be surprised if they win outright.
Minnesota +5.5 Iowa
Take a look at the Big 10 West standings. Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin are all tied atop the division with identical 4-2 record. The Badgers are in the driver's seat as they own wins against Iowa and Purdue, and while they have looked especially dominant the past three weeks, there are some challenges remaining on the schedule (Nebraska and Minnesota respectively), so this race is far from over. The loser of this game will be pretty much eliminated from contention, but the winner can harbor dreams of getting pounded by Ohio State in Indianapolis. Both these teams have had weird seasons. Iowa rose as high as number two in the polls before dropping consecutive games to Purdue and Wisconsin by a combined 37 points. The Hawkeyes won last week against Northwestern, but still struggled offensively in a 17-12 victory. Meanwhile, Minnesota has dropped three home games for the first time since 2017 (PJ Fleck's first season), including two where they entered as double digit favorites. Meanwhile, they are unbeaten away from Minneapolis, with two outright wins as an underdog. After allowing 45 points and over ten yards per play to Ohio State in their opener, Minnesota has allowed just 15 points per game and 4.6 yards per play since. Both those numbers would be cause for celebration for the Iowa offense. After scoring a turnover fueled 85 points in their first two conference games against Indiana and Maryland, the Hawkeyes have scored 54 total points in their past four Big 10 games. Iowa's defense is good enough to win this game, but unless they force a ton of turnovers, their offense not good enough to cover this number.
UTEP -1 North Texas
The bloom has come off the rose in El Paso the past two weeks as the Miners have dropped consecutive games after opening the year 6-1. Despite the setbacks, they have a chance to get to nine (though more likely eight) regular season wins. UTEP has not won eight games in a season since 2005. They will probably end the season without a single victory against a team with a winning record, but this is progress for a program that won two total games between 2017 and 2019. While the Miners appear to be on their way up, North Texas is looking at their third consecutive losing season. The Mean Green have won two in a row to get back to respectability, but those victories have come against Rice and Southern Miss (combined for two FBS wins between them). Give North Texas credit for winning those games, but this team is still bad. If UTEP has proven anything in 2021, its they can beat bad teams. Every team they have lost to is headed to a bowl games (Boise State, FAU, and UTSA), while all six of their wins have come against teams that will not be going to the postseason. I know it can be scary laying points with UTEP, but all the Miners have to do to cover this number is win. North Texas won twelve of their first sixteen home conference games under Seth Littrell, but they are just 1-4 in their past five. Look for that trend to continue as UTEP wins their seventh game.
Texas A&M -2.5 Ole Miss
Will the SEC Championship Game feature Texas A&M for the first time? That statement is not necessarily as far fetched as it may have appeared when Texas A&M dropped their first two conference games and was a big underdog to Alabama in their third. The Aggies upset Alabama and have won three in a row since. If they can win on the road against Ole Miss and LSU, all they would need is an Auburn victory in the Iron Bowl to punch their ticket to Atlanta. The Aggies should be able to run through an Ole Miss defense that is allowing over five yards per carry once sack yardage is removed. In fact, despite their 3-2 SEC record, Ole Miss is slightly underwater in terms of yards per play in conference games (-.08 yards per play). Plus, Texas A&M has the best per play defense in the SEC outside of Athens, so they should be able to partially contain the dynamic Ole Miss attack. Also, keep in mind Lane Kiffin's college teams are 1-8 ATS as a home underdog. I know that number is shocking, but catching points at home is something that is quite rare under Kiffin. Tennessee was never a home underdog in his lone season in Knoxville, Southern Cal was 0-4 in such games, FAU was 0-2, and Ole Miss is 1-2. Laying points on the road always gives me pause, but Texas A&M is the more complete team.
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